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🥐 Vinicius punishment, Champions League hangover: Thursday’s 5️⃣ stories
Real Madrid experienced a day of mixed fortunes. They staged an epic Champions League comeback against Roma after trailing 3-1 in the 82nd minute, inspired by late substitutions. However, their joy wa...
Gears of War: E-Day sells 230K copies
Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230K copies since its advance-access launch on October 1 and full release on October 6. Steam accounts for 168K of those, with Xbox (console and PC) selling 62K. But there’s more to this story, as Xbox makes up the bulk of revenue. E-Day is the best-reviewed Gears game in nearly two decades (and the best one ever made, in my opinion). The Coalition has made a banger here (it’s currently in my top 10 of the year). Despite E-Day’s undeniable quality, this is a soft result. And it’s down to the business model, really. E-Day has made $37M so far, thanks to the Premium upgrade On Xbox, Game Pass is cannibalising much of the premium revenue. Our estimates show that 1.7M folks accessed E-Day via their subscription rather than a copy. But Xbox is having it both ways – or having it halfway, at least – via its Premium Edition Game Pass upgrade. Game Pass subscribers could pay $30 (or their local equivalent) for up to five days of early access starting October 1. Our estimates show that of the 1.7M who accessed E-Day through Game Pass, 722K paid for the upgrade. Between the review embargo lifting on October 1 and the full release, E-Day managed to shift another 250K early-access upgrades – no doubt helped by the campaign’s rave reviews. So despite selling far fewer copies on Steam, Xbox accounts for almost three-quarters of the revenue (roughly $26M of the $37M, versus about $11M on Steam). So “230K copies” undersells the paying audience. Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day. The $30 upgrade is a halfstep from cannibalisation, but will Xbox go all the way? While E-Day is a sublime game, these are soft numbers for a flagship when Xbox badly needs revenue wins. E-Day sold 62K copies on Xbox against 722K Premium upgrades, so for every one copy sold on Xbox, nearly 12 Game Pass upgrades were sold. The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox. Normally you can’t see what a Game Pass player would have paid, because the game’s just there in the subscription. But the $30 early-access upgrade estimate shows that 722K people demonstrated they’ll spend real money on this game. In a world without day-one Game Pass, many of these folks would have bought E-Day at $70. They paid $30 for five days early access to something they don’t own. Xbox is, in effect, charging its most valuable customers the least, based on a hangover from a tried-and-exhausted strategy from a previous administration. Those 722K willing-to-pay players generated about $21.7M via the upgrade. If three quarters of this group – mostly US and European audiences – bought E-Day outright, that’s nearly $40M. Of course, Game Pass does bring in meaningful recurring revenue, and E-Day is adding value for hundreds of thousands of subscribers. However, Game Pass is no longer growing, so Xbox is at a crossroads. Xbox is reportedly looking to do a Netflix and bolt on an ad-supported tier to pad it further. But that will just set a new floor, and leadership keeps telling us the priority now is revenue growth, which is subscriber-speak for ARPU. Xbox has already pulled Call of Duty from day-one Game Pass after day-one inclusion hammered its sales, with new CoD titles now arriving on the service around a year late. We know that some Microsoft executives believe the service devalues games outright, and rumours (which Microsoft has dismissed so far, to be fair) suggest that day-one releases could be taken off Game Pass. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe When a game this well-reviewed does this softly on its home platform, the model – not the game – gets brought into question. What else E-Day’s early adopters have played (including this month so far) Looking at E-Day‘s players on Xbox, most have played the franchise before (86% have played Gears 5, 76% Gears 4), and every game on the crossover list is either a shooter or a title from an Xbox-owned studio (though Game Pass is inflating those numbers, of course, more on that later): As for what else Xbox’s E-Day players have played this month, the top three are Fortnite (16%), Roblox (7%), and Call of Duty (6%). Another 5% played Minecraft Dungeons II, which is also on Game Pass and launched a couple of days before Gears‘ advance-access date. Many Game Pass players are happy to check out most big new additions. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Over on Steam, the top crossover games are also mostly shooters (slightly more PC-coded ones), including Space Marine 2, which was itself heavily inspired by Gears: Looking at what E-Day‘s Steam players are into this month shows who they are – as subscriptions don’t skew the data. The top three are Wardogs (13%), Deadlock (12%), and CS2 (10%), so you’ve got the restless shooter crowd checking out the new hotness. A little further down are Helldivers 2 and Space Marine 2, your co-op PVE shooter players who’ll feel right at home in Horde mode. Game Pass is skewing the playtime distribution on Xbox Looking at the playtime distribution in our platform, E-Day players on Steam are – relatively speaking – playing for longer: 54% of E-Day players on Xbox have played for five hours or less (versus 32% on Steam) 19% of Xbox players played for over 15 hours (versus 33% on Steam) 14% of Xbox players played for over 20 hours (22% on Steam) The absolute number of people playing for over 15, 20, and 50 hours is, of course, bigger on Xbox, thanks to the sheer volume of folks who came in through Game Pass (upgraders included). None of that is cause for alarm. Game Pass is the reason Xbox playtime skews lower, as when a game is free to try, people try it and bounce without putting in even an hour (17% under an hour on Xbox versus 6% on Steam). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe The subscription brings in tourists alongside the committed, dragging down the average even when the game is excellent (but also perhaps winning over the uninitiated). It’s standard across every subscription-included title, on PS Plus too. Forza Horizon 6, for instance, had 11% of its Xbox players bounce under an hour, versus just 2% on Steam. So, Xbox’s crossroads So there we have it. Gears of War: E-Day is an incredible game whose revenues have been stifled by subscription inclusion and exclusivity. It’s the best-reviewed entry in the series in fifteen-odd years, but it still turned into one of the year’s softer flagship launches, not because players didn’t want it, but because Xbox’s own storefront gave its most willing buyers a reason not to pay. Which leaves Xbox at a crossroads. Will it keep making Gears games when the financial returns are this thin and the margins this low? And if it does, does the next one arrive off Game Pass at day one – the way CoD now does, or even on PlayStation? I think it should. Alright, back to E-Day for me! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
☕️ Who can beat Spain? and Sunday’s 5️⃣ stories
On a Sunday with a sweet hangover after the Spanish national team’s latest display, here are the five stories we’ve selected to help you start the day in the best possible way.Let’s get started!...
Health boost? Hangover cure? Louisianans are turning to IV therapies, but are they helpful?
Sticking a needle in your veins has never been more popular.
These New Startups Are Promising to Cure Your Next Hangover. What Does Science Say?
Hangover cures are big business and a hot new wellness trend, but scientists are dubious about their effectiveness (sorry!).
Hangover 'Cures' Remain an Imperfect Science
Buzzy supplements are everywhere, but researchers cast a skeptical eye
A campaign hangover, one political sign at a time
Thousands came down, but officials say signs still crowd roadsides and intersections.
No 'hangover' as Truro begin season with victory
Truro City assistant manager Stewart Yetton says there was no "hangover from last season" after his side open the new campaign with a win.
Frequent cannabis users wake up with their “stress hormone” already elevated
Frequent cannabis users may wake up with unusually high levels of the stress hormone cortisol, suggesting their daily stress rhythms could be disrupted. Researchers say the finding raises questions about whether using cannabis for stress relief might, over time, interfere with the very system that helps the body handle stress.
Boston businesses hope energy from World Cup crowds can have lasting impact on nightlife
Boston's summer of major international events is nearing its finale, but businesses and residents hope the momentum will continue long after the final whistle of the World Cup.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Some CFOs are in for a tokenmaxxing shock
AI spending ballooned as companies pushed workers to use more tokens. Chamath Palihapitiya says CFOs may soon feel the hangover.
The crazy numbers behind Turkey’s exit 🤯
Square feet epidemic in Turkey.At daybreak, the entire Turkish people woke up with a hangover.Beaten by Paraguay by the smallest of margins (0-1), Turkey is already heading out of this 2026 World Cup ...
Preview: UFC Vegas 119 prelims
Mixed martial arts hangover is a real thing, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Here’s your Alka-Seltzer.
Trump’s European after-party spoiled by irksome realities
After the party comes the hangover.
Hustle culture's pricey hangover
It's another example of the haves and have nots.
Missouri lawmakers return for final week
The session has run relatively smoothly despite hangover resentments from partisan measures passed in 2025
Back Patriots to Suffer from Super Bowl Hangover, Difficult Schedule
Next NFL season will do little to resemble last season, according to Will Hill, who is betting New England will underperform.
🥐Champions week, Liga hangover... Monday's 5️⃣ stories
It’s a key week and one of the most important of the year because of everything at stake, and the news is clear. No Mbappé two days before MunichWith still two days to go before the battle at the A...
Lando Norris: Golf addict. From ‘what the hell is this sport?’ to playing Augusta with a hangover
The F1 world champion never got golf ... now he can't get enough of it and has been lucky enough to play at Augusta, more than once
No. 11 North Carolina falls to unranked Miami, fresh off dramatic win over Duke
North Carolina didn't get caught looking ahead of last week's Duke game. Instead, the hangover got the Tar Heels.
Cards Defeat SMU 91-58
There was no New Year’s Day hangover for Louisville today. After a long holiday break they started 2026 the same way they finished 2025 with a big victory. That said, it did take a quarter for the team to assert dominance. Coach Walz said, “First game back after the break so I anticipated a little […]
Gen Z is 'Zebra Striping' their way out of hangovers
Gen Z is redefining drinking culture to skip hangovers entirely, prioritizing non-alcoholic options and THC drinks over a traditional boozy night out.
Is it true that … you can sweat out a hangover?
It’s the liver – not the skin – that rids the body of the toxins in alcohol, but exercise can help manage the symptoms