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Why the 49ers likely won’t shadow Jaxon Smith Njigba
The 49ers aren’t likely to put Deommodore Lenoir on Seattle’s star receiver.
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt: A CFB27 Simulation
Someway, somehow, EA Sports has the Vanderbilt Commodores ranked 18th in the polls. Not how the Vandy season has gone in real life. The game simulations are never 100% accurate, but that one seems a little wild. Well, for the second straight contest, Ole Miss is headed on the road, and in the video game […]
Nutritional countermeasures to spaceflight studied at URI
KINGSTON, R.I. – Oct. 5, 2026 – As humans spend longer periods of time in outer space and venture further from Earth, it’s increasingly important for scientists to learn how varied gravity levels affect muscle function and muscle loss, and how those effects can be counteracted or minimized. Theodoros Pavlidis, a second-year doctoral student who […]
Dawg Sports on the Radio
Your Georgia Bulldogs defeated the Vanderbilt Commodores 38-14 on Saturday, and we intend to not just write about it, but also talk about it. That’s why I’ll be listening to MaconDawg’s chinchilla ranching consultant on WFOY in St. Augustine(102.1 FM/1240 AM) this evening around 6:45 pm Eastern to talk Georgia Bulldog football on SportsNow with host […]
Chapel Bell Curve:
You’ve got to do something before kickoff. And if you’re looking to maximize your preparations for today’s matchup with Vanderbilt that something should be listening to Nathan and Yara preview the Commodores. Among other audio goodness in this episode you’ll find the following: As always we ask that you like, rate, subscribe, and patreonize the show wherever […]
Throwback Dawg Day: Granthan vs. Franklin
Vanderbilt. To a lot of SEC fans, you almost felt bad for them most years. At least as far as football goes, the Commodores have spent many years languishing as a doormat. Being in Tennessee’s shadow does not help, neither does the fact that opposing fans can easily take over a game day over on […]
Small Signals, Big Effects: Why Symbolic Policies Matter for Climate Politics -
In the APSA Public Scholarship Program, graduate students in political science produce summaries of new research in the American Political Science Review. This piece, written by Ximena Caló, covers the new article by Theodore Tallent, [...]
Small Signals, Big Effects: Why Symbolic Policies Matter for Climate Politics -
In the APSA Public Scholarship Program, graduate students in political science produce summaries of new research in the American Political Science Review. This piece, written by Ximena Caló, covers the new article by Theodore Tallent, [...]
LA County Public Health fell short in response to Chiquita Canyon landfill issues, audit says
An underground reaction at the Chiquita Canyon landfill has produced chemicals and bad odors for years.
Feds confirm exposure to some levels of Tijuana River odors can lead to health effects
The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry analyzed more than 800,000 air measurements collected between September 2024 and May 2025.
Auburn Weekly Roundtable
Week 4 has arrived, and the Auburn Tigers are looking for a bounceback after their 42-39 loss to the Florida Gators. It’s Homecoming on the Plains, and the Vanderbilt Commodores are in town, who have had the Tigers’ number over the past few seasons.
Atlantic Health building briefly closed in Morris Township after workers report odor
First responders investigated the Madison Avenue building Monday; no hazardous substances were detected.
‘Pheromonemaxxing’: Gen Z men thumb their noses at showers and deodorant
They want to enhance their natural scent to attract a partner
Alex Golesh previews Auburn's Week 4 game vs Vanderbilt
Alex Golesh has put the Florida loss behind him, and is focused on this week's SEC battle with the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Does your natural scent repel or attract people? What the science shows. - Futura-Sciences
Despite decades of perfume marketing and pop-science claims, researchers have never confirmed the existence of a human sexual pheromone that triggers attraction. Instead, controlled brain-imaging and behavioral trials reveal a far more subtle reality: human scent acts as a fleeting emotional signal rather than a switch for sexual desire. From...
Channel 4 partners with Nivea on YouTube branded entertainment format
UK public broadcaster Channel 4 has partnered with German personal care brand Nivea and its Black & White deodorant on a branded entertainment format for YouTube.
Rockport fire displaces 2 families, impacts businesses
Firefighters responded to reports of a gas odor Sunday morning and found thick black smoke coming from a Broadway Avenue building.
Lewis County health officials identify source of foul odor reported in Weston
The Lewis County Health Department has identified the source of an unpleasant odor reported across parts of Weston, confirming it originated from a nearby dam rather than the sewer system.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
Skipping showers is the latest trend. But is there any science to 'pheromone' maxxing?
Across parts of the internet where young men trade tips on self-improvement, the latest project is scent. Deodorant is out, and washing less is in.
Vanderbilt football vs Delaware score updates, start time, TV channel
The Vanderbilt Commodores are hosting the Delaware Blue Hens for a non-conference Week 2 matchup at FirstBank Stadium. Follow for score updates.
Vanderbilt football vs Delaware score updates, start time, TV channel
The Vanderbilt Commodores are hosting the Delaware Blue Hens for a non-conference Week 2 matchup at FirstBank Stadium. Follow for score updates.
How to watch Saraland vs Theodore high school football
You can watch Saraland football all season long with NFHS Network, including this week’s game against Theodore.
Vanderbilt looks to build on historic season vs. Austin Peay
Senior Blaze Berlowitz edged out top recruit Jared Curtis to earn the start at quarterback, though both signal-callers are expected to take snaps for the Commodores against the No. 14 FCS Governors.
Theodore Cowling - Associate Director of Athletics for Sports Medicine (MBB)
Theodore Cowling joined the Hofstra athletics staff as associate director of athletics for sports medicine
Judge blocks Trump admin from moving FBI headquarters to DC office building
U.S. District Judge Theodore D. Chuang ruled that the move was "not in accordance with law"
Judge blocks Trump admin from moving FBI headquarters to DC office building
U.S. District Judge Theodore D. Chuang ruled that the move was "not in accordance with law"
5 body odors that could offer clues about your health
Unusual body odors aren’t always a cause for concern, but they can sometimes offer clues about what is happening inside the body.
Who Owns Commodore? The Retro PC Brand Still Exists, But A Lot Has Changed
Commodore is still in business, but it isn't quite the household name it once was, instead producing a flip phone and other "fun" tech.
We smell different as we age. Here's why.
An odor-producing molecule 2-nonenal is only part of the story.
As some struggle, business and development thrives in downtown Burbank
Your morning catch-up: Downtown Burbank business is booming, Lineage must remove foul odors from its warehouse and more big stories.
Opponent Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is coming off one of the most successful seasons in program history, going 10-3 overall and 6-2 in the SEC while being in the playoff conversation the whole year. Head coach Clark Lea has built up the Vandy program into something extremely respectful, if not borderline borderline playoff contending – will need a couple […]
13 things pet owners should clean regularly to keep everyone healthy and happy
Veterinary experts share tips on how to care for the items that come into contact with our furry companions to promote good health and stave off odors.
F-M metro business closures: Chamber says growth continues despite losses
The Fargo-Moorhead area has lost more than 30 businesses so far this year, including Charlie’s Place, Youngblood Coffee, and Crave, which closed as of Monday.
Public health survey documents the stench in Boyle Heights
Amid growing complaints from neighbors, the L.A. County Department of Public Health conducted a door-to-door outreach survey in the neighborhood surrounding the warehouse.
Vanderbilt Football 2026 Position Preview: Quarterbacks
The Commodores will have a new man under center in 2026.
Austin businesses claim ‘confusing’ waterway ban submerges summer profits
The Commodore churns its paddles into Lake Austin without moving. Parked by the Tom Miller dam, the steamboat couldn’t depart for any voyage Saturday. READ MORE: https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-businesses-claim-confusing-waterway-ban-submerges-summer-profits/
Austin businesses claim ‘confusing’ waterway ban submerges summer profits
The Commodore churns its paddles into Lake Austin without moving. Parked by the Tom Miller dam, the steamboat couldn’t depart for any voyage Saturday.
What scientists felt when approaching Egyptian mummies will truly shock you - Futura-Sciences
The Surprising Role of Scents in Ancient Egyptian Burial Rites In ancient Egypt, smell was far from a trivial detail: it was a crucial part of funerary rituals. Pleasant fragrances were linked to the gods and purity, while foul odors were a direct reminder of decay and death. For Egyptians,...
The Commodore of Recycling helps his family business grow
A recycling plant machine in New York City runs on machines built by a Northeastern grad known as the ‘commodore of recycling’.
How North Dakota Finally Built Theodore Roosevelt's New Library
Doug Burgum, Kelly Armstrong and Kevin Cramer discuss the state's biggest new landmark and the politics of the moment.
Boyle Heights fire: Mobile health clinic opens as city prepares for community meetings
A free mobile health clinic is opening Monday at Ruben Salazar Park in Boyle Heights as residents continue to raise concerns about odors and health issues following a warehouse fire.
Trump visits newly built Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in North Dakota
The facility's grand opening is July Fourth, but Trump visited Wednesday to see the library and to speak to a crowd at a nearby amphitheater
‘Noxious odors’ lawsuit involving organic residuals lagoon dropped by Fort Smith business owners
VAN BUREN -- A civil lawsuit focused on a widespread foul odor linked to an Arkansas River bottom organic residuals storage lagoon has been dismissed at the request of the plaintiffs.
Commodore Has Dropped The Price Of Its Retro Phone By $100 Ahead Of Preorders
A refreshing direction for a price change.
Prada serves up luxury fashion’s version of pasta pomodoro at Milan Fashion Week
Miuccia Prada and Raf Simons reimagine jeans-inspired basics in leather and technical fabrics for their latest collection.
Gen Z Is Going To Love Commodore's New Minimalist Flip Phone
The Commodore Callback is a flip phone with messaging apps, a music play, and maps, but no social media, allowing users to escape distractions from reality.
"This Isn't Your Granny's Flip Phone" - Commodore Defends Its $500 Dumbphone
"Nobody could sell this device for less"
Modelling the odor profile of fungal Solid-State Fermentation
npj Science of Food - Modelling the odor profile of fungal Solid-State Fermentation
Commodore Unveils Linux Powered Flip Phone
Whatever happens with the new incarnation of the Commodore corporation, we’ll always remember the old one fondly. Well, we’ll remember certain of its products fondly, at any rate, if no…
Commodore gets into the phone biz with Sailfish-powered retro 'Callback'
Ships sans email, web, or socials, but with plenty of beige plastic
Odor‑resistant and soft on the skin: The science of merino wool explained
Merino wool is warm, comfortable and surprisingly adaptable, making it a smart choice for days when the weather can't quite make up its mind. But exactly why is it such a good material?
Commodore’s newest gadget is a flip phone that blocks social media and browsers
Commodore's Call Back 8020 is a phone “where the customer is not the product."
The Commodore Callback 8020 Is a Digital Detox Phone That Isn’t Dumb
With a retro look and T9 texting, the Commodore Callback 8020 smart flip phone taps into the nostalgic yearning for simpler days. It can run Spotify and Uber, but Instagram is blocked.
After resurrecting an iconic PC brand, Commodore is getting into flip phones
It’s $499, it’s beige, and it’s hoping to get you off your smartphone.
Record seaweed invasion leaves beachgoers gagging as fumes raise health fears
Record sargassum seaweed levels hit South Florida beaches in May, creating foul rotten egg odors and disgusting beachgoers across coastal communities.
When aerosol sprays become a deadly health hazard
Key Takeaways: Dusting or huffing is a dangerous trend where people use inhalants such as deodorants and hair spray to get high.The trend is popular on various social media channels.Inhaling these dangerous aerosols can cause brain damage, breathing and heart issues, and even death.Experts say it's important to have a conversation with your kids...
Vanderbilt football roster among nation's most experienced
Commodores rank second in most games played, 10th in snaps, 12th in starts
Harry's and Coterie owner Mammoth Brands has ambitions to be the next CPG giant
Mammoth's direct-to-consumer brands have helped upend the razor, diaper and deodorant categories.
Orange County Health says odors may occur as GKN Aerospace chemical tank cleanup continues
Orange County Health says odors may occur as GKN Aerospace chemical tank cleanup continues
Under the oversight of the OC Health Care Agency, South Coast AQMD, and GKN Aerospace, MMA from the tank is scheduled to be pumped out and removed between Thursday and Friday.
Commodore Bar is granted license for live entertainment
Conditions are attached to address neighbors' concerns.
2027 WR Davion Crumitie commits to Vanderbilt
Tallahassee (Fla.) James Rickards three-star wide receiver Davion Crumitie announced his commitment to Vanderbilt on Saturday evening. He chose the Commodores after decommitting from Syracuse back in February. Auburn, Kansas State, Kentucky, Florida and Wisconsin are among the other programs on his offer sheet. Crumitie is the No. 529 overall prospect and No. 73 WR […]
Artists are bailing on a Trump-backed concert for America’s 250th
The Commodores, Martina McBride, Morris Day & the Time and Bret Michaels are among the performers who have publicly distanced themselves from the concert series.
Music lineup released for Freedom 250 event on National Mall
Freedom 250 announced its musical lineup for the 16-day 'Great American State Fair' event will include The Commodores, Milli Vanilli and Vanilla Ice.
Health officials warn East L.A residents about odor after 2,400 gallons of oil spill
Los Angeles County Public Health officials gave new guidance to residents after a ruptured pipeline released approximately 2,400 gallons of crude oil along a major East Los Angeles street and into …
The 2025-26 Clarion Sports Awards
Athletics at the University of Denver had yet another successful year. Highlighted by hockey’s national championship, gymnastics and women’s lacrosse making runs into the NCAA tournament and the
Scientists create detailed map of odor receptors
Researchers uncovered surprising details about how smell receptors are organized in the nose.
Scientists Unveil ‘Long Lost’ Map for Smell
The odor receptors in the nose are not distributed at random but organized in a precise spatial pattern, two new studies reveal.
Theodore's OT winner helps Knights even series with Mammoth
The 5-4 win by Vegas gets its home-ice advantage back with Game 5 Wednesday at T-Mobile Arena
Odor of marijuana leads cops to loaded gun in science teacher’s car
A science teacher was arrested and charged on Monday after Union County deputies found a loaded gun in his vehicle, which was on school property.
UFC announces Serbia debut with August card in Belgrade
Uros Medic and Dusko Todorovic are UFC’s top talents from Serbia
MA bill would stop online surveillance from harming business
Many technology companies track users' every move through the digital world and repeatedly sell that data to the highest bidders.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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Suds & Science
Ever thought that learning would be more fun with a cold drink in hand? We've got you covered! Suds & Science brings scientists face-to-face with the public at local neighborhood bars for a night of learning, drinking, and community that you won't want to miss! Highlights: - Fun and informative lectures from STEM professionals - Lively discussions between scientists and audiences - Connection with your community in a laid-back environment "Tentacle Tinder: How Cephalopods Decide When to Swipe Right" Cephalopods (the class of mollusks that includes octopuses, squids, cuttlefishes, and nautiluses) are renowned for their complex cognitive abilities and for their remarkable capacities to rapidly alter their body patterns for camouflage and communication. But behind the scenes, things get even stranger. Nearly all cephalopod females mate with multiple males and can store sperm for weeks to months. That means each female carries a tiny archive of potential fathers. So the big question becomes: when everyone is competing for a spot in that archive, how do cephalopod females decide who to mate with, and can they control whose sperm ultimately fertilizes their eggs? About the Speaker Theodora is a PhD student in Marine Biology at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Prior to starting at SIO, Theodora researched chronic reproductive pain conditions in New York, created marine science multimedia as a science communication intern at Point Reyes National Seashore, and studied cephalopod neuroethology as a research intern at Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology. Theodora currently studies the evolutionary and behavioral dynamics of female choice in cephalopods, with a focus on local California market squid. When she’s not doing research or underwater, Theodora can usually be found listening to or singing classical music. Fleet Science Center on Facebook / Instagram
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Mathematical models wield miraculous power, but mistaking them for reality has trapped science in a destructive quest for a “Theory of Everything.” Physicist and philosopher Ragner Fjelland argues that this leads to bloated, Frankenstein theories kept alive by clumsy, ad-hoc amendments, which reduce rather than boost science’s power. Fjelland calls for a radical shift in our attitude: we must reorientate towards creating entirely new theories, celebrating rather than lamenting disunity and diversity in science. Science, from the scientific revolution in the seventeenth century to the present day, has more or less developed in a “reductionist” way. The fundamental assumption is that all sciences may be ordered in a hierarchy that can be represented as an upside-down pyramid. At the top we find the human sciences, and at the bottom physics. Strong (or “ontological”) reductionism maintains that all theories at one level can be completely reduced to the lower level, all the way down to theories of atoms and elementary particles, or whatever is “at the bottom.” In the end, all diversity in the world can be unified in one fundamental theory. Hence it is called a final theory, or a Theory of Everything.One of the central figures in developing the idea of a Theory of Everything is the Dutch theoretical physicist Gerard 't Hooft, who received a Nobel Prize in physics in 1999 for his work. He emphasizes the non-empirical status of the theory:There exists no closely resembling alternative theory. This means that any slight change brought about in the rules would make the theory unlikely or inelegant. The theory will be a "package deal": take it, or leave it. This should hold both for the local laws and for the boundary conditions.This endeavor is not new. On the contrary, it goes all the way back to the birth of Western philosophy 2,500 years ago. The Babylonians made regular astronomical observations during a period of 600 years, from 747 BCE until 150 ACE. They developed mathematical techniques to predict astronomical phenomena, but they made no attempts at explaining them. However, the Greeks developed models, both material and theoretical, to explain the observed phenomena.The best example is Plato’s late dialogue Timaeus. Here he introduces a divine craftsman, the Demiurge, who has constructed the universe according to an original plan. Plato seems to have thought that the original plan is what is actually real, while the material world is merely an imperfect realization of it. He therefore does not, in the Timaeus, reconstruct the material universe, but the original plan, which can then be used to explain the material universe.Plato’s aim in producing a theoretical model is to reconstruct the original plan. That is what he carries out in Timaeus—and some modern physicists have embarked on the same project. For example, Einstein’s basic attitude is reflected in the title of Abraham Pais’ biography: “Subtle is the Lord...,” echoing Einstein’s comment, “Subtle is the Lord, but malicious He is not.” In an interview Einstein compared our situation to a child who enters a huge library. The child knows that someone has written the books, but he does not know the languages in which they are written. He suspects that there is a mysterious order, but he does not know what it is.___“We have all been working in what Husserl called the Galilean style; that is, we have all been making abstract mathematical models of the universe to which at least the physicists give a higher degree of reality than they accord the ordinary world of sensation.”Steven Weinberg, Nobel Prize in Physics (1979)___This Platonist view is contrary to a widespread impression of science, symbolized by the picture of the “father” of modern science, Galileo Galilei, with his telescope. According to this impression, Galileo liberated himself from the dominating metaphysics of his day—basically Aristotelian philosophy—and constructed a telescope that he directed towards the sky, showing that Jupiter has four moons. He also performed experiments with bronze balls rolling down inclined planes and found the law of freely falling bodies.However, in other cases Galileo emphasized the unreliability of our senses. It is easy to see why. He defended Copernicus’ heliocentric hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, we are not at rest at the center of the universe, but moving at a tremendous speed through space. Why don’t we observe this motion? Galileo praises Copernicus because “with reason as his guide he resolutely continued to affirm what sensible experience seemed to contradict.” In other places he directly refers to Plato. SUGGESTED VIEWING The quest for a final theory With Michio Kaku Galileo’s Platonism goes back to his early writings. In The Assayer, published as early as 1623, Galileo compared the universe to a grand book that is written in the language of mathematics, and “its characters are triangles, circles, and other geometric figures without which it is humanly impossible to understand a single word of it.” Therefore, things that cannot be described by mathematics—for example, colors, smells and odors—are not real. They are merely subjective.This division into subjective and objective, advocated by Galileo and his younger contemporary René Descartes, is normally associated with a mechanistic world view, which is regarded as the opposite of Platonism. When we reduce something to, for example, molecules and atoms, we move “downwards.” In contrast, the Platonist moves “upwards,” to abstract entities. However, it only shows that when we address fundamental questions, we should be careful in applying everyday spatial metaphors like “up” and “down.”___Nature is complex, and we cannot in general construct mathematical models that adequately describe the world.___The endeavor of finding a Theory of Everything has been heavily criticized. In 2006, the theoretical physicist Lee Smolin published “The Crisis in Fundamental Physics.” He argued that one of the most fundamental principles of science is that we should only regard theories as scientific if we have the possibility to show that they are false by experiments. Although he did not refer to Karl Popper, other critics have referred to Popper and argued that a theory is not scientific if it cannot be falsified (see for example Ellis & Silk 2014).These were not the first physicists to be anti-reductionists. In 1972, the journal Science published an article by the physicist Philip Anderson with the title “More Is Different.” This is the kind of article a scientist would normally write only after he has won a Nobel Prize. However, Anderson won the Nobel Prize for physics five years later, in 1977. The article is amazing, not primarily because it argues in favor of anti-reductionism in general, but because it argues for anti-reductionism within physics itself. Anderson’s conclusion was:At each stage entirely new laws, concepts, and generalizations are necessary, requiring inspiration and creativity to just as great a degree as in the previous one. Psychology is not applied biology, nor is biology applied chemistry.We may say that Plato started the “unity of science movement,” based on Euclidean geometry as the model of all knowledge. A distinguishing mark of geometry is that all possible constructions can be reduced to a few fundamental principles. We have to acknowledge that this approach has limitations. In general, we can easily model technological systems. In addition, we may construct simplified and idealized models that capture important aspects of systems, from various perspectives and for various purposes. But nature is complex, and we cannot in general construct mathematical models that adequately describe the world. In a complex system, each level has its distinct, emergent, properties that are characteristic of this level. Therefore, a complex system should be investigated at different levels and from different perspectives. Instead of exclusively pursuing a scientific ideal based on the unity of science, we should acknowledge the diversity—or even the disunity—of science.
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American presidents occasionally perform roles that extend well beyond the formal obligations of their office. Thomas Jefferson’s tenure (1801–1809) embodied the broader progress of antebellum sout…