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Now What? With Carbon Pricing Eroded and Pipeline Politics Advancing, Here Are the Pathways for Climate Success
At the end of a whirlwind week of news on carbon pricing and electricity strategy, capping a madcap year of pretty much non-stop, dramatic change, the word across much of Canada’s climate and energy transition community is that climate policy in this country has been shredded. Eviscerated. Hit with a sledgehammer by policy rollbacks that have pushed the country’s 2050 net zero target “well out of reach”. That means it’s never been more important to look for the rays of hope and glimmers of possibility. To glimpse the seeds of the next set of strategies to get Canada’s climate pollution under control and the country into the accelerating global dash away from fossil fuels. And then, once we’ve spotted those possibilities, get on with the hard, day-to-day slog of trying to make them a reality. Nothing takes away from the frustration and the deep disappointment so many climate and energy hawks are expressing, the sense of betrayal by the author of Value(s) and the former UN special envoy for climate action and finance. But we knew two things as the week drew to a close. We’re looking at the world as it most definitely is. And we don’t get to give up finding the pathways to confront climate change and deliver faster, deeper carbon cuts that leave no one else behind. So really, the first question we all have to ask ourselves is: What’s next? Subscribe All the Oxygen in the Room The outpouring of anger and grief over the carbon pricing deal between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been absolutely understandable. So much of the climate community poured years, more than a decade, into dragging the current federal pricing regime across the finish line, then defending it from a deluge of three-syllable rhymes after the Trudeau government proved utterly incapable of delivering its own message. The policy foisted on us by neo-classical economists took up all the oxygen in the room, burned through years of climate response time that we won’t get back, while cornering climate hawks into the position that the best response to the crisis of our lifetimes is a new tax…in an era of historic anti-tax sentiment. I mean, really—what could possibly have gone wrong? Against that history, let’s appreciate columnist Max Fawcett’s point that even a modest carbon pricing agreement with a government as off-the-wall libertarian/conspiracist as Danielle Smith’s—those adjectives are mine, not Max’s—is a win worth savouring (as long as Smith keeps her promises for a change). But part of living in the world as it is (no, I’m not letting that go) is to be clear-headed about what we can and can’t control. And one thing we get to decide, after seeing this week’s carbon price festivities take up all the oxygen yet again, is whether we want to keep letting that happen. Particularly when success down that road depends on a factor that no one with a climate agenda can control or influence—a provincial carbon pricing mechanism that has been manipulated and eroded beyond its lowest possible denominator. Thankfully, that’s not the way it has to go. Not when we have so many other powerful, practical tools at our disposal, including the ones still available to us through this abominable Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and Alberta. Tools In Our Toolbox When I started roughing out this list, I didn’t expect it to grow to nearly a dozen bullet points. It’s probably still incomplete. Some of the greatest hits in today’s climate solutions toolbox include: • No Carbon Capture, No Pipeline: On Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney explicitly stated that there’s been no change to the MOU provision that there will be no West Coast pipeline without an industry commitment to build its massive, $16.5-billion carbon capture and storage (CCUS) hub in Northern Alberta, and vice versa. The two megaprojects were joined at the hip when the MOU was signed Nov. 27, and the implementation agreement this week affirmed that they still are. A parade of independent analysts have spent years pointing to the economic and technical flaws in CCUS, while the industry kept postponing its investment decision until it could arm-twist the government for more “clarity” (by which it meant even more lavish taxpayer subsidies) on the project. Now the industry itself is running away from the CCUS hub and insisting the pipeline should proceed without it, but Carney doesn’t seem to be budging from a central tenet of the MOU to which Smith has signed on. • No Subsidies, No Investors: Climate analysts and advocates have quite rightly been hammering away at Carney and his team, insisting that any new capacity the industry wants to build must proceed without new subsidies. The government has responded with a growing collection of funding and financing mechanisms for the very wide menu of industrial development and nation-building projects they say they want to take on, and that menu always includes fossil fuel infrastructure. But it’s hard to see how even the combined fiscal clout of the federal and supportive provincial governments will deliver the financial backing private investors would need when the business case for new fossil fuel development is evaporating before their eyes. Particularly when… • No Market, No Demand, No Investors: As our friend Markham Hislop at Energi Media (our apparently sleepless friend, given the massive volume of great material he’s been churning out) points out this morning, the biggest vulnerability in any pipeline deal is the assumption that Asian buyers will want the oil or liquefied natural ga that our fossil industry is so keen to send them. Hislop writes in part: Ottawa and Alberta are effectively betting that countries like China and India will continue increasing oil imports for decades as their economies grow and energy consumption rises. That assumption underpins the entire economic rationale for expanding oil sands production and building billions of dollars in new export infrastructure. But Asian energy systems are changing rapidly… China, India, South Korea, and other major hydrocarbon importers are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars into electricity systems built around wind, solar, batteries, nuclear, hydro, and expanded transmission infrastructure. Domestic “energy sovereignty” is increasingly replacing the old energy-security model based on stable oil and gas imports. Those investments are expected to sharply slow oil demand growth and eventually reverse it, even as overall energy consumption continues rising. There are also refining constraints. Many Asian refineries and petrochemical complexes are already optimized to process discounted heavy crude from the Middle East and Latin America. That raises serious questions about how much additional Canadian bitumen Asian markets can absorb at profitable prices. Small wonder that there’s still no private sector investor for the project, despite Smith’s government desperately beating the bushes to put together a deal. For now, Alberta is acting as proponent and covering early start-up costs for a pitch to the federal Major Projects Office, which could actually turn into the next tough hurdle for Smith and her pipeline to jump. • Canada Day Looms: How ironic that Canada’s birthday this year could become a major chokepoint for the provincial premier who’s been working so diligently to tear the country apart! The July 1 target date for Alberta’s pipeline proposal is baked into the MOU, was reaffirmed by the implementation plan, but it hadn’t dawned on me that it cuts both ways. As one very smart colleague wrote in an email yesterday, “they’ve thrown the ball into Alberta’s court to get the project proposal on the table really quickly and to have to do a whole pile of work to put together a massive, complicated project that would typically take years to assemble, and they’ve given them weeks to do it.” That makes July 1 a looming deadline that Smith won’t be able to run away from politically, especially with the separatists in her party and her caucus breathing down her neck. (See previous ref to off-the-wall.) But if Alberta comes in with a sloppy, incomplete submission, even after Carney bent over backwards to simplify the application process and the rules that govern it, it may be harder for the province or the industry to blame Ottawa and insist on the faster process they claim their investors are demanding. (Oh, wait—which investors would those be??) • We’ll See You In Court (Then We’ll See You Again): If Carney did cave, that would be just one more reason for Indigenous and other affected communities to take the government and the process to court—Just as Alberta First Nations did, successfully, in response to Smith’s half-baked separation referendum. Veterans of the Harper era have been warning that a shoddy process around fossil fuel infrastructure or other major projects will be a recipe for the very delays that process seeks to avoid. And now more than ever, with renewable energy and energy storage eating fossil fuels’ lunch in import markets around the world, a delayed pipeline or LNG terminal may be as good as a cancelled one. • Charged Up, Ready to Go: With its goal of doubling Canada’s electricity supply to meet a doubling of demand by 2050, the national electricity strategy that Carney unveiled Thursday has a lot to like. With its explicit language about speeding the shift from fuels to more efficient and affordable electricity, global investment and deployment patterns that already favour that shift, an emerging bidirectional power grid, the role of front-line options like rooftop solar and heat pumps, the emergence of electric vehicles as behind-the-meter energy storage, and the domestic jobs and manufacturing to make it all happen, the document doubles down on the essential cornerstone of a faster shift off fossil fuels. The strategy envisions a more prominent role for gas and nuclear power. But some of those provisions were already in the Clean Electricity Regulations that climate hawks are now fighting so hard to defend, inserted as a compromise in a futile attempt to mollify the industry and its political representatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. But once again, gas will be a tougher sell when it’s more expensive and now so much more unpredictable than the clean alternatives. The new nuclear technologies are still speculative and deeply vulnerable to cost overruns. Increasingly, utilities, developers, and investors know it. Carney declared Thursday that “it doesn’t do us good to be sitting in court all the time with provinces. It doesn’t do us good to be talking past each other. What does do us good is to come together with specific projects.” There are no guarantees, but so much of the language and narrative-building in the electricity strategy suggests the lion’s share of those projects will be renewable. • The Party Has Already Started: The electricity strategy only rarely digs down to specific projects, but provinces representing three-quarters of Canada’s population are already embracing a faster transition. Hydro-Québec is working on a 10-year, $185-billion renewable energy and grid buildout by 2035. Ontario recently brought 10 provinces and territories together in a National Energy Corridor Agreement to boost interprovincial and -territorial transmission infrastructure. And the MOU implementation agreement commits Alberta to facilitate investment in renewable energy projects, a big step back from its continuing, punitive restrictions on renewables development. The electricity strategy envisions much of the financing and infrastructure that will be needed to pull those advances together into an integrated whole. • Delivering on Affordability: The MOU implementation plan has little or nothing to say about affordability (are you surprised?), but the electricity strategy does, with a top-line pledge to reduce home energy costs for seven out of 10 Canadian households by 2050, a total saving of $15 billion across the board. It’s just a start, but it puts affordability on the government’s narrative map. If they’re serious and deliberate about patching together a least-cost energy strategy, it’ll have little if any room for oil, gas, or nuclear—not with powerful evidence, for example, that electricity prices are higher when those prices are set by gas. • Smith Proves that Canada Works: By signing a deal that makes it harder to claim the federal government is blocking a new pipeline, Smith has helped prove Carney’s constant anti-separatist refrain that “Canada works”—incurring the rage, no doubt, of her own political base. Canada also needs to work for anyone who depends on a clean environment, healthy and thriving ecosystems, and safe, stable climate. But with Smith and her separatist constituents setting up as a fifth column for annexation by Donald Trump’s United States, let’s set aside any notion that 51st state status for Canada is a recipe for anything other than climate disaster (and so much else). Resisting and withstanding Trump (just 170 more sleeps until mid-term elections, which is a damn sight better than the 730 we started with) doesn’t mean a free pass for a pipeline, but we can still appreciate it that keeping Canada whole and sovereign is still Carney’s Job One. • The Words Not Spoken: Apart from a commitment to export a million barrels of “low-emission” Alberta bitumen per day (memo to Smith and Carney: You realize that that’s less than the industry is already exporting??), the MOU implementation plan says nothing about the international trade and economic sovereignty deals that Carney has been travelling the world to negotiate. It didn’t have to. Carney doesn’t need permission from Danielle Smith, her American enablers, or her separatist allies to continue building the alliances that will ratchet down our economic dependency on our unstable, unreliable neighbour to the south. But every connection he builds with countries outside North America helps align our economy and our future with a faster shift off fossil fuels. Little if any of this was on our bingo cards a year or two ago. But it’s the pathway that has opened up to us. And if it gives Canada any climate or energy gains at all in an era still dominated by Trump and his increasingly ridiculous tariffs, his loutish trade negotiations and his continuing annexation threats, we have to take the wins. Not least because they’ll be the point of departure for what we can achieve in 2027, 2029, and beyond, as Trump’s grip and this era begin to loosen and then fade. What is Carney Doing? If this line of thought is right—and it’s a possibility, not a prediction—it means that Carney’s actions and decisions are largely about buying time. Time for Trump’s power to wane. Time for Alberta’s separatist/conspiracist virus to spread, mutate, die out, or at least die back, with help from a vaccine of federal steadiness and calm (appropriate enough, for a movement populated largely by vaccine deniers) that no conspiracy theory can dismiss. And time for the government’s trade and investment agenda to deliver results—even knowing that some of those results will bring impacts that front-line communities will not and should not accept. In the immediate moment, none of this changes the way the wider climate community has to respond, from campaigners to investors to front-line practitioners. All of our voices are still essential. But those voices will be stronger and more confident if we have a clearer sense of the brutal game we’ve been pulled into, and a plausible path (or two it three) for playing it to the win we need. This conversation also underscores our biggest task for the remaining years of what was supposed to be the “decisive” decade for climate response: if we can shift the energy narrative in Canada, make it a mainstream view that the country’s preoccupation with oil and gas has us falling farther behind a changing world, we’ll see far better results in the 2030s and beyond. For many veteran climate advocates, taking on that part of the fight will begin with recognizing that most of our friends and family, neighbours and colleagues already understand that climate change is real and right in front of us: they’re looking away and staying silent because they don’t have what climate communicator Katharine Hayhoe calls “efficacy”. As Hayhoe recently pointed out in a feature interview with The Energy Mix, it amounts to science denial to keep hammering away at the dire news about global warming without also helping audiences understand what they can do about it, with multiple studies telling us why that won’t work. Far better to open those conversations with the dominant crises like energy security, food security, emergency preparedness and business continuity, affordability, and financial security that have knocked climate change far lower on the list of public priorities, and will likely keep it there. We Knew This Would Happen Climate hawks have always known this day would come. For decades, we warned that everyone had to pay attention to climate change right now, because it would be much tougher to respond once the crisis itself started affecting our daily lives. We were right, and here we are. But now, thanks to decades of hard work, communities and countries have an alternative to doubling down on fossil fuels. “In 10 years everyone will have ‘always known’ that solar and batteries were going to win,” Morgan Solar Executive Chair Mike Andrade writes on LinkedIn. With the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz roiling energy priorities around the world, Canada and the United States are among the shrinking number of countries that are still very keen on fossil fuel development. Understanding that gap is a first, essential step in spotting the opportunities ahead, and averting the deep economic as well as environmental and social risk we face if we don’t seize them. Thanks for reading The Energy Mix Weekender! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Mitchell Beer traces his background in renewable energy and energy efficiency back to 1977, in climate change to 1997. Now he and the rest of the Energy Mix team scan 1,200 news headlines a week to pull together The Energy Mix and The Energy Mix Weekender. Chart of the Week BYD Eyes 20 Dealership Locations After Canada Greenlights Chinese EV Imports ‘Sledgehammer’ Carbon Price Deal Boosts Emissions by 230Mt, Aims for Fall 2027 Pipeline Approval ‘Worse Than Harper’: Regulatory Rollback Would Stop Canada from Assessing Project Impacts, Critics Warn Electricity Strategy Aims for Doubling by 2050, Allows ‘Flexibility’ for Gas Power Plants Opposition Mounts as O’Leary’s Data Centre Approved in Drought-Stricken Utah Diluted Carbon Price Misses ‘Reality of the World We’re In’, Could Impede Diversified Trade: Climate Institute $200B in Clean Energy Investment Will Need On-Time Delivery, Reliable Policies, Trade Association Says ‘Sovereign Pipeline’: CEO Pitches to Keep Trans Mountain in Government Hands What a Supercharged El Niño Could Mean for Canada Canada’s future is electric, and here’s how a power grid superhighway would get us there (Toronto Star) The Perilous Waters of Hecate Strait (Globe and Mail) Saudi Aramco profits jump despite conflict in Middle East (The Guardian) Farmers confront rising cost of fertilizer and fuel as spring seeding under way (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) Clarkson forecasts 24% decline in offshore oil, gas capital expenditures (Oil & Gas Journal) Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa (Oil Change International) Developing countries must hold the pen to script the fossil fuel transition (Climate Home News) Iran war threatens the dream of a post-oil economy in the Gulf (Washington Post) U.S. Oil, Gas Work Force Hits Lowest Level Since 2022 (Rigzone) Why Polestar Is Doubling Down on Net Zero as Rivals Pull Back on EVs (Bloomberg) Why this Michigan utility plans to sell its hydro dams for $13 (E&E News/Politico) Levees can no longer save New Orleans (Vox)
US begins operation to seize Venezuela-linked oil tanker
The US has begun an operation to seize an oil tanker linked to Venezuela after tracking it across the Atlantic, a source with knowledge of the operation told CNN on Wednesday.
US negotiators leaving without a peace deal with Iran
A U.S. official said several U.S. Navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz; three supertankers passed through, shipping data showed.
Oil prices rise anew after a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz strands tankers
Oil prices are rising in early trading as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump says he has 'no problem' with allowing oil into Cuba
Trump told reporters he would allow a Russian oil tanker to resupply Cuba, which suffers an energy crisis after the U.S. halt of Venezuelan supplies.
Add a month at sea and $2.5 million - what it costs oil tankers to flee Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
With two of its key oil export routes - the Hormuz and Bab el- Mandeb straits - disrupted by Iran and Iran-allied Houthi militants, Saudi Arabia has to resort to exporting oil via Egypt's Suez Canal.
Can the Left Make America Fun Again?
Hi friends, I’ve got a piece in The New York Times today about how collective joy — participatory, youthful, anti-corporate — can defeat Trumpism and transform our lives. The basic argument is that politics used to be embedded in communal life: dances, sports leagues, union halls. As that infrastructure disappeared — and more of everyday life was atomized and privatized — politics became something broadcast at people rather than something they did together. NYC-DSA and Zohran provide another model, where socials and face-to-face organizing are tied to a fight vs the corporations that fenced off so much of the good life. Rebuilding that kind of collective fun, I argue, could help bring young people back into politics and, by redistributing America’s wealth, make everyday life more joyful. I would super appreciate it if you’d read the piece, share it, or post comments on it. Thank you! p.s. FYI, Opinion writers don’t get any say over their headlines! More Take action to support the fight of licensed deck officers at Alaska Tanker Company and Overseas Shipholding Group to win a first union contract. This is one of the most important, and underreported, unionization campaigns in America: these workers have a huge amount of power over domestic energy distribution and maritime supply chains, and they’re still without a contract two years after having voted overwhelmingly to unionize. Please sign the public petition here, and if you’re an academic you can sign this support letter.
Oil treads water as US-Iran peace talks stall, Hormuz shipping slows
Oil prices barely moved in early trade on Monday as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend with no peace deal in sight between the United States and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East.
Stock market today: Dow drops tumbles as oil surge slams markets
US and international oil prices spiked after Iran said it attacked a crude tanker, reigniting fears of an oil shock that could send inflation higher.
Crude oil tanker struck by unknown projectile off Oman, UKMTO says
The master of a crude oil tanker has reported being struck by an unknown projectile 4 nautical miles east of Oman, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said early on Saturday.
Senate to vote on 2 health care proposals. And, the latest U.S. move against Venezuela
The Senate is expected to vote on two opposing health care proposals today. And, the Trump administration says it has seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela in its latest move in the region.
US contemplates sending more resources to forcibly board oil tanker near Venezuela
The United States hasn’t given up its pursuit of the massive, rusted oil tanker it chased into international waters near Venezuela last weekend, and officials are now contemplating moving additional resources into the area to forcibly board the ship, people familiar with the matter said.
A Seized Oil Tanker Off Venezuela and the Big Business of Dark Fleet Smuggling
The U.S. seizure of a vessel off Venezuela is likely to squeeze the country’s government, but do little to counter the tankers that secretively move oil from sanctioned countries.
From true contenders to tankers, ranking all 32 NFL teams by tiers entering the season
Trump administration criticized after partial Epstein file drop as US seizes second tanker off Venezuela - live updates
Oil tanker pursued by US now has a Russian flag painted on its side
Crew members aboard the aging, rusted oil tanker that the US has been pursuing at sea for nearly two weeks appear to have painted a crude image of a Russian flag on the ship’s hull, which American officials believe is an attempt at claiming Russian protection, a US official familiar with the matter said.
A Shark Tanker’s Advice On Avoiding New-Business Overwhelm
As more Americans look to start businesses to shore up their income and career possibilities, they're discovering it's not as easy as it may look. Inventor Raquel Graham, who made the transition, offers seven steps on how to turn an idea into a real business.
Lawmakers question Coast Guard official about tanker seizures, boat strikes
The “shadow fleet” of nearly 1,000 vessels poses environmental and safety risks because the boats are often poorly maintained, according to the International Maritime Organization
Donald Trump says he has no problem with Russian tanker bringing oil to Cuba despite blockade
'It’s not going to have an impact. Cuba’s finished.'
DC Wrap: Oil tankers begin to move in strait; Obama celebrates center opening
A look at the day's biggest stories in national politics
Venezuela condemns ‘warmongering threats’ as Trump orders oil blockade
Trump has ordered a ‘total and complete’ blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from the country
US pursuing another tanker ship near Venezuela amid Trump blockade
The US is pursuing a vessel in international waters near Venezuela on Sunday after attempting to intercept it, a US official said, as President Donald Trump’s administration tightens its crackdown on the country’s oil industry.
Is metascience being co-opted?
In July, the White House released a report that argued academia is deeply dysfunctional and in need of radical reform.Science: A New Golden Age sets out a litany of problems many academics will recognise: interminable waits for grants; short-term funding rather than support for longer, more ambitious projects; ballooning administrative requirements; pressure to publish, and many more. “The scientific machine is getting bogged down,” it says. At least on the face of it, Science: A New Golden Age is a triumph for the metascience movement, a loose-knit, global group of academics, philanthropists and think tankers that want far more testing and experimentation in how we fund public research and innovation. The report tells US research funders to set up internal metascience units to do just this. But it has also set alarm bells ringing that metascience is being conveniently deployed to help justify the defunding of US universities, which US vice president JD Vance has openly labelled “the enemy.” “Just because you have an issue with your plumbing in your house doesn't mean you light the entire house on fire and burn it to the ground,” said Colette Delawalla, chief executive of Stand Up for Science, a group campaigning against what it says are attacks on scientists by the Trump administration. No one is arguing that academia doesn’t need reform, but there’s debate over how far and how fast the system should be shaken up. Does public R&D need slow and steady evidence-based adjustment, or radical new experiments?One of the key arguments in Science: A New Golden Age is that there’s not enough funding for what it calls “mid-level” science: engineering-heavy projects that require tens of millions of dollars, involve ten to a hundred people, and last around five years. Such a project might develop a brain-computer interface for people with Alzheimer's disease, for example. As such, the US National Science Foundation (NSF) has already announced $1.5 billion to set up so-called X-Labs, effectively new research organisations to pursue breakthroughs in areas such as quantum sensing and new scientific instruments. Funding divertedBut there’s a catch: this money has squeezed NSF budgets for more traditional, fundamental research grants, Science reported in June, likely meaning less cash for university-based scientists. Science: A New Golden Age also makes various swipes at universities, accusing them of extracting overheads from scientists to fund administrative bloat. “We have become dependent on a narrow set of legacy institutions,” it says. The report doesn’t mention it, but the US government is simultaneously seeking greater powers over federal funding, which would allow political appointees at funding agencies to screen or cancel research grants mid-project. The White House is also seeking to slash the NSF’s budget by more than half in 2027, although similar cuts proposed for 2026 were blocked by Congress. Convenient hookThis has worried some that the metascience agenda could be misused as a kind of smokescreen to further weaken universities. James Wilsdon, executive director of the Research on Research Institute at University College London, said that the report contains lots of “interesting ideas” and agrees that in places, academia is a “pretty broken system.” But the risk is that metascience is being deployed as a “convenient hook” to support cuts and a “political land grab” to transfer grant power from scientists to political appointees in US funding agencies.So far, the metascience agenda hasn’t been seized on by radical right parties in Europe. But Wilsdon worries it will cross the Atlantic, politicising research reform efforts and making them more difficult to carry out. The report is already making some in Europe sceptical of the entire idea. “The system is not without flaws, but the metascience discussion is not likely to improve the system but rather to generate munition to undermine it,” said Claes de Vreese, a professor of AI and society at the University of Amsterdam. Peter Thiel protégéOfficially, Science: A New Golden Age has just one named author: Michael Kratsios, the director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy and a former chief of staff to Silicon Valley mogul Peter Thiel. He also served as chief financial officer of Thiel’s Clarium Capital Management. Since the 1990s, Thiel has criticised US universities for moving away from teaching what he views as the classic works of western civilisation, and drifting towards “anti-Western zealotry.” And since 2011, he has offered two-year fellowships of $250,000 to young people to skip or drop out of university, and instead start companies or pursue scientific research. “College can be good for learning about what’s been done before, but it can also discourage you from doing something new,” according to the Thiel Fellowships website. In other areas, the Trump administration has promoted academics with a longstanding interest in metascience. For example, the head of the National Institutes of Health, Jay Bhattacharya, in 2020 co-authored a study arguing the funder backs overly conservative proposals, although he achieved wider prominence as a critic of pandemic lockdowns. Careless talk costs fundingEven before the Trump administration embraced the metascience agenda, some metascientists privately wondered whether they should be careful not to overstate dysfunctions in academia, in case this gets used as ammunition against universities. But others think being cautious with criticism is pointless. After all, last year, the Trump administration sought to cut funding from US universities on an entirely different premise: supposed antisemitism on campus. “I don't think these governments need a technical metascientific excuse to attack the universities, they will want to do so anyway,” said Will Stone, a researcher at Science Works, a new think tank advocating for a “metascience revolution” in the UK. “I think researchers should report what they find, even when the findings may be used to advance policies they disagree with,” echoed Russell Funk, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, who in 2023 co-authored a highly influential paper that argued scientific papers were becoming less disruptive over time. No justificationThat said, Funk thinks that metascientific research certainly doesn’t justify a weakening of universities. Instead, scientists need “time, resources and stability to pursue unfamiliar ideas,” he said. “Taking away those conditions works against the very goal the reforms are supposed to achieve.”The Institute for Progress, a Washington DC-based innovation policy think tank that has championed X-Labs and metascience units, also says that reforms should complement, not supplant, universities. “Unpredictable, unreliable, and reduced federal funding to researchers is destabilising to the very foundations of research and development and is bad,” said Jenn Gustetic, the institute’s director of metascience and R&D policy.Evolution or revolution?This points to a much bigger divide in the metascience community: how far and how fast should public R&D be shaken up? Does it need evolution or revolution? For example, Science: A New Golden Age says the science system relies too heavily on traditional “workhorse” project grants, the type that pay out around $250,000 a year to fund “hypothesis-driven science by small teams on tractable questions.” However, in criticising project grants, the report “decisively picks one side of a debate that is far from settled,” David Hilmer Rex, a metascientist based in Denmark, has written. In June, Pierre Azoulay, a metascientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, defended project grants, saying that the alternative of X-Labs “merits scepticism.”A-B testingOne challenge in metascience is that it’s easier to generate evidence for some types of change than others. Most straightforwardly, research funders can run A-B tests on different ways of awarding money. For example, Germany’s Volkswagen Foundation recently trialled distributed peer review, where applicants rate each other’s proposals, and measured its results against traditional review panels. Distributed peer review made quicker decisions, although awarded money to largely different ideas. However, much of the focus of the metascience movement has been on founding fast-moving and free-acting new research organisations and funders, in contrast to the alleged stodginess of mainstream academia or public innovation grants. A culture of speed and freedom are the animating principles behind Germany’s Sprind or the UK’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria).Related articlesViewpoint: it's time to experiment with how Europe funds science European researchers sound the alarm that Trump rule changes will hit cooperationHowever, while it’s possible to closely study previously successful bodies, such as the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa), for historical clues to their secret sauce, it’s impossible to guarantee in advance that the likes of Sprind or Aria will actually work as hoped. But advocates of new organisations say this inherent uncertainly shouldn’t stop us trying. “If we wait for definitive proof that something will work before we try it, I don't know where your proof is coming from,” said Stone. Trade-offsUp until now, experiments in metascience haven’t generally come with hard trade-offs over money. In the US, new ideas such as focused research organisations have often been funded by billionaire philanthropists. In Europe, new innovation agencies such as Sprind and Aria, or the Netherland’s new National Agency for Disruptive Innovation, haven’t needed explicit cuts elsewhere in the research system. But with the $1.5 billion establishment of X-Labs by the NSF, the trade-offs are becoming clearer. Some metascientists privately wonder whether a smaller pilot would have been more appropriate, given that the idea is untested. The Institute for Progress counters that the $1.5 billion X-Labs budget is spread out over a decade, so will account for less than 2% of the NSF’s annual budget. “It’s important to remember that [Darpa] was once an institutional experiment as well. Now it’s one of the most cited innovative funding models in the world,” said Gustetic.As for Europe?The US isn’t the only country placing metascience at the heart of its research strategy. Science: A New Golden Age looks admiringly at the UK, which in 2024 set up a Metascience Unit to scrutinise how it funds research. In Brussels, it’s more of a mixed picture. In 2018, the EU set up the European Innovation Council to funnel grants and equity to start-ups, although it’s sometimes criticised for awarding money too slowly. Recently, the council has started experimenting with challenges, where teams of inventors compete to overcome a technological challenge. The European Commission also wants to experiment with partially randomising grant winners, to cut down on bureaucracy. However, the Commission’s own advisers have said the EU’s own research schemes are too conventional. They want the Commission to establish a new dedicated unit to scrutinise and experiment with funding. But there’s no sign of a such unit emerging in Brussels’ plans for the next Horizon Europe programme, which from 2028 is set to distribute more than €160 billion over seven years. Sam Bogerd, director of breakthrough innovation at the Brussels-based Arq Foundation, an AI-focused think tank that also looks at metascience, says that Europe might have the opposite problem to the US: universities and basic research funding are still reasonably well supported, but there’s not enough experimentation. “We're not taking a close enough look at where this money can achieve the most, and I am worried that the good ideas around metascience will be tainted politically by their association with the Trump administration,” he said. He’s still lobbying for the Commission to set up an experimental unit. But in the meantime, the Arq Foundation plans to do its own research, and is currently hiring two metascience researchers to run the rule over how Brussels spends research funding.
Iran meeting with Gulf countries to discuss Strait of Hormuz deal without the US
Gulf diplomats and Iranian officials will meet without US involvement to discuss an Omani plan for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz to regular tanker traffic.
Trump Seeks to Calm Oil and Gas Markets but Says Iran War Will Go On
The president said the U.S. could accompany tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary to keep oil flowing. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said.
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MORNING BUSINESS REPORT: Oil tanker shortage, McDonald's other ads, smartwatches vs calories
An oil tanker shortage could keep prices high, McDonald's plans to add ads for other businesses, and smartwatches may not accurately count calories. Here's the Morning Business Report for Sept. 23.
Trump says NATO's refusal to help on Iran is 'very foolish mistake'
Trump called on nations to help police the Strait of Hormuz after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks by using drones, missiles and mines to \u200ceffectively close the channel for tankers.
Trump says US remains in pursuit of oil tanker and it’d be ‘smart’ for Maduro to step down
President Donald Trump said Monday the US remains in active pursuit of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, more than 24 hours after the chase began, while repeating his threats against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Trump Iran framework gambles on diplomacy despite warning Tehran will 'lie and cheat'
Trump administration's Iran framework offers immediate oil sanctions waivers while postponing key nuclear questions, a gamble officials say carries risks.
US carrier shoots down Iranian drone and armed boats threaten US tanker as tensions in with Iran escalate
A US aircraft carrier shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively approached” the ship in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday hours before two gunboats operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps approached a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to board and seize the ship, according to a US military spokesman.
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Analysis: What Trump’s latest dramatic Venezuela move means
The Trump administration’s seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela is one of the most dramatic twists yet in a military pressure campaign against Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
DC Wrap: U.S. fires on Iranian tankers; Pentagon releases UFO files
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UK forces board sanctioned Russian oil tanker in English Channel for the first time, says Keir Starmer
Prime minister says British armed forces intercepted a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the early hours of Sunday morning
Trafigura launches Volare tanker arm, plans Oslo listing
Trading house Trafigura said on Monday it had launched Volare Shipping, which would own and operate 14 supertankers, adding that it plans to sell shares in the business before listing it on the Norwegian stock exchange next month.
Trump reveals ‘present’ from Iran as oil tankers move through Strait of Hormuz
Trump claims oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz signal real talks, as Steve Witkoff reports positive signs in U.S.-Iran backchannel negotiations.
US seizes another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean
The US has seized another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea, US Southern Command said on Friday.
Oil prices climb past $105 a barrel as war in Iran enters third week
The price of oil rose to its highest level since July 2022 Sunday evening as the Trump administration suggested the war with Iran could last several more weeks and President Donald Trump called on the international community for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers.
US targets multiple Iranian tankers near Kharg Island
The US targeted multiple Iranian tankers near Kharg Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to two US officials.
Millions of barrels of Iranian oil sit beyond Trump blockade as he vows ‘zero leakage’
Nearly 40 million barrels of Iranian crude sit on tankers near Malaysia, posing a test for Trump's "zero-leakage" sanctions campaign against Tehran.
Wanted: Oil tankers at any cost as tensions in the Gulf trigger a global scramble
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring freight rates have intensified competition among countries and shipowners to secure their own tanker fleets. A second-hand vessel can now cost up to 40% more than a newly built one
Russia files diplomatic request asking US to stop pursuing oil tanker
Russia filed a formal diplomatic request that the United States stop pursuing an oil tanker originally bound for Venezuela that has evaded US custody for almost two weeks, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz sends oil prices soaring
Donald Trump says the Iran war may be over soon. But the US President also threatened to escalate attacks if Iran doesn't let tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Around the world, consumer fuel prices have soared.
Democrats voice concerns about Venezuelan tanker seizure: ‘sounds a lot like the beginning of a war’
Senator Rand Paul said it was ‘not the job of the American government to go looking for monsters around the world’
Ukrainian drones hit a Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time, security official says
A source in the Security Service of Ukraine told Business Insider that the attack was carried out more than 1,240 miles away.
Can the West keep the Strait of Hormuz open?
‘Death valley’ oil-tanker shipping passage crucial to world’s energy prices
Iran claims it struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast developments
Iran says it struck an oil tanker trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while hundreds of thousands of people rallied in Tehran in the largest show of support for the government since the United States and Israel launched attacks in February. Meanwhile, South Korea says it is considering expanding a naval operation in the […]
Fetterman Can’t Understand Why Dems Won’t Support Iran War
The cantankerous Pennsylvania senator is more of an outlier in his party than ever.
U.S. sanctions 4 companies, oil tankers with ties to Venezuela
US seized oil tanker off Venezuelan coast, Trump says
President Donald Trump on Wednesday confirmed that the US has taken control of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.
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Lord Wallace of Tankerness obituary
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Trump orders ‘total and complete blockade’ of sanctioned oil tankers coming to and leaving Venezuela
President Donald Trump said Tuesday he was ordering a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers coming to and leaving from Venezuela, ratcheting up pressure against leader Nicolás Maduro’s regime and suggesting an economic motive to the US’ military campaign in the region.
DC Wrap: A third judge agrees to unseal records from Epstein investigations
Also, Trump says the U.S. has seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, and the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate
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Roundup: Indiana rejects redistricting, Trump bashes immigrants in Pennsylvania : The NPR Politics Podcast
It’s been a busy week in the political world. We discuss the Indiana state Senate's rejection of President Trump's push to redraw the state’s congressional districts, President Trump's speech on the economy in Pennsylvania in which he denigrated immigrants, and the United States' seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.This episode: political correspondent Sarah McCammon, senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Please let us know what you think of our show and how we can make it better by filling out this quick survey. As a token of our appreciation, three respondents will be randomly selected to receive a $25 gift card.
Oil prices jump amid record tanker attacks in Hormuz
Oil prices climbed Thursday on continued worries about global supply and as record tanker attacks in the Middle East sent crossings through the Strait of Hormuz to a two-month low.
US forces caught dark fleet tanker after chasing it across Atlantic
The tanker, originally called Bella 1, evaded a US naval blockade of sanctioned vessels near Venezuela last month.
Tanker fire at metro Atlanta business under investigation
“Right now, we’re in the process of finding out what exactly was in the tanker.”
Trafigura to float supertanker arm in first IPO of a business
Commodities trader to take Volare Shipping public in Oslo as Gulf crisis drives tanker rates to record highs