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The Pollwatcher: Another fraudulent pollster is out of business, and a third group just disappeared
Why a fake poll got into mainstream poll trackers, how it was discovered and the common thread behind both fake poll scandals this year.
John M. Williams on hunting rights, wolves and the urban-rural divide
Colorado hunter, angler and founder of Colorado Wolf Tracker, John M. Williams, joins The OpEdge to discuss Amendment 83, wolf reintroduction and the growing divide between urban and rural Colorado. Williams tells host and deputy opinion editor Antonio Olivero why he believes protecting hunting and fishing rights is essential to wildlife conservation, what he sees […]
FNCS Solos Last Chance Qualifier in NA West: Session 1
Keep your FNCS Solos journey alive in the Last Chance Qualifier! LCQ Round 1 is open to eligible players who participated in an FNCS Solos Qualifier Round 1 session but have not already advanced to the LCQ Final or the FNCS Solos Finals. Players will compete in a single three-hour session with up to 11 matches. After the session concludes, the top 70 players in each region will advance to the LCQ Final. The LCQ Final lasts approximately two and a half hours and features up to five matches. Every match provides a direct path to the Finals: the player who earns the Victory Royale will receive 1,000 points and immediately qualify for the FNCS Solos Finals. Once qualified through a Victory Royale, that player may not compete in any remaining LCQ Final matches. After the LCQ Final concludes, the next 17 highest-scoring players who have not earned a Victory Royale will also advance to the FNCS Solos Finals. This is your last chance to secure a spot—good luck and have fun!
Expert ‘bat wranglers’ put GPS trackers on California’s bats
These winged mammals can cover a lot of ground during their seasonal migrations.
Champion Teal Knight FNCS Cup Zero Build in NA West: Session 1
Answer the call. Fight for glory. Compete in the Champion Teal Knight FNCS Cup for a chance to earn Champion Teal Knight cosmetic rewards. Put your skills to the test, rise to the challenge, and forge your path to victory. Good luck and have fun!
Champion Teal Knight FNCS Cup Battle Royale in NA West: Session 1
Answer the call. Fight for glory. Compete in the Champion Teal Knight FNCS Cup for a chance to earn Champion Teal Knight cosmetic rewards. Put your skills to the test, rise to the challenge, and forge your path to victory. Good luck and have fun!
Google debuts $180 Fitbit Edge tracker in continued health push
The new device gives Google another way to promote its redesigned health app, which debuted in May and replaced the old Fitbit user experience.
Google debuts $180 Fitbit Edge tracker in continued health push
The new device gives Google another way to promote its redesigned health app, which debuted in May and replaced the old Fitbit user experience.
Google Fitbit Edge hands-on: Pixel Watch Lite, take two
Google’s new Fitbit Edge tracker launches later this month and, as we get our review together, here’s a quick hands-on...
Hiyd is a health tracker that attaches to the watch you already wear
Former Apple engineers figured out how to get a biometric sensor to attach to your watch without any magnets or adhesives.
The price for this 1 grocery item just keeps climbing (Business Matters grocery tracker)
Average prices for multiple common grocery goods tracked by Syracuse.com are falling. But one keeps rising in a big way.
Google unveils new Fitbit Edge tracker as tech giant expands health monitoring ambitions
Google on Monday its debuted its second Fitbit tracker of the year, the Fitbit Edge, which sits between the screenless health tracker Fitbit Air and the more advanced Pixel Watch. | The new device also builds on Google’s health tracking ambitions by combining advanced health sensors with AI-powered insights designed to identify changes in a user’s health and translate those signals into personalized guidance.
Google invests in Flo and plans women’s health wearables
Google has invested in period tracker Flo. Flo data will sync with Google Health from early 2027, and the pair will build co-branded devices.
Do Social Media Longevity Trends Actually Work?
Viral health trends across social media claim to increase both stamina and longevity, but do they really work? TODAY medical contributor Dr. Natalie Azar joins TODAY to differentiate fact from fiction by breaking down social media health claims, from cold plunges and cortisol levels to wearable trackers and more.
Google announces $179 Fitbit Edge tracker with display, GPS
Google is following the Fitbit Air launched in May with a second tracker that features a screen called the Fitbit Edge.
How to Watch Tracker Season 4, Episode 2
Watch Tracker live with TV channel, start time and streaming info. Stream Season 4, Episode 2 on Fubo — no cable required, free trial available.
Why most health apps are biased even before their first lines of code are written
Many of us use digital health tools every day, such as period trackers, fitness apps or online quizzes to check our mental health.
Street Fighter Cup Zero Build Reload in NA Central: Session 1
Ready? Fight! Throw down in the Street Fighter Cup and battle for a chance to earn cosmetic rewards. Let’s go, World Warrior!
Google officially teases Fitbit Edge tracker, confirms October 12 launch
Google has dropped an official teaser for its Fitbit Edge tracker and confirmed its launch date, and it's coming very soon.
Google Fitbit Edge: Official Teaser, Launch Date Arrives
Google confirmed today that the Fitbit Edge is indeed real and is launching much sooner than we expected. In a short teaser posted to Twitter, Google told us to get our wallets ready on Monday. For those not familiar with Fitbit Edge, this is expected to be Google’s new fitness tracker that lands somewhere between...
Three House races in Pa. — including in Bucks County — shift toward Democrats, Cook Political Report says
The contest between Democrat Bob Harvie and U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has moved from "likely" to "lean" Republican, according to the nonpartisan election tracker.
Natura’s $99 smart ring puts AI agents on your finger
Natura’s $99 Interface smart ring lets you summon AI agents with the press of a finger to complete tasks, capture thoughts, and control devices — while doubling as a health tracker.
New leaks reveal more details about the Fitbit Edge including its price
Google’s next fitness tracker with a screen could arrive soon.
Google ‘Fitbit Edge’ reportedly costs around $180 as specs & features leak
A new leak reveals that Google’s upcoming Fitbit Edge tracker will probably have a price somewhere around $180 and offer...
Huge Amazon Prime Big Deals Sports Tech Tracker!
Here's your complete Amazon Prime Days 2026 Sports Tech Gear Guide, covering 100+ sports tech product deals!
Samsung's Galaxy SmartTag 3 works with way more Android phones than anyone realized
No longer exclusive to Galaxy and iOS devices.
Can Health Trackers Help You Manage Menopause Symptoms?
Apple, Oura and Whoop have all recently added features for midlife women. Here’s what the tools can — and can’t — measure.
AirTags are on sale ahead of Amazon Prime Day. These early deals are worth shopping
Amazon Prime Day is tomorrow, but these early AirTag deals are already worth snagging.
Qalo SL-1 review: A barebones smart band that's priced like a flagship
Qalo’s first screenless tracker is too expensive for what it is.
This is the Fitbit Edge: Google's next fitness tracker finally spills its secrets
Google is reportedly getting ready to launch a new fitness tracker called the Fitbit Edge, and the device has leaked in full!
How to Watch Tracker Season 4 Premiere
Watch Tracker live with TV channel, start time and streaming info. Stream Season 4 Premiere on Fubo — no cable required, free trial available.
Chargers vs. Seahawks live tracker: Score, highlights, analysis
Follow along with Chargers Wire for live updates, scoring plays and highlights from the Week 4 game between the Chargers and Seahawks.
‘Fitbit Edge’ leaks as Google’s next fitness tracker with ‘Apps’ & ‘Notifications’
Following an accidental marketing leak in August and FCC listing last month, retail listings for the “Fitbit Edge” have now emerged.
Exclusive: This Is the Fitbit Edge, Google's Next Fitness Tracker
Exclusive Fitbit Edge images show Google's new screened fitness tracker in three colors, sitting between the Fitbit Air and Pixel Watch 5.
Trump told aide to use taxpayer money for TV ads praising him
Four spots have run, at a cost of about $5.5 million, and that is expected to grow, according to media tracker AdImpact and people familiar with the spending.
Solo Reload Victory Cup in NA West: Event 1 Event 1 Round 1
Battle your way to Platinum in Reload Ranked to be eligible for the first and second Events of the Season, Diamond for the third, and Champion for the final Event of the Season! Compete for the opportunity to win a cash prize! Reach Round 2 (top 1600 in EU; top 800 in NAC; top 320 in OCE, ASIA, ME, BR, and NAW), where every player who earns a Victory Royale will earn $100 USD. Good luck and have fun!
What’s the best sleep position? It depends.
Also, should you really be using an electronic sleep tracker?
Qalo's Screenless Health Tracker Has a Smart Ring Companion, Too
Qalo's new subscription-free fitness SL-1 Smart Band works on its own as a Whoop competitor but is even better when paired with the company's smart ring.
Beyond Horizon: Science and competitiveness brief
As Brussels debates how to extract more economic value out of its investments in science and technology, this news tracker brings together the latest developments in EU and national R&I policies, as well as updates on how the worlds of research and industry are working together for a more prosperous Europe.If you have any tips, please email them at news@sciencebusiness.net.You can read the full archive of this blog here.
Samsung SmartThings is shutting down support for Galaxy SmartTag in October
Samsung has confirmed plans to shut down its SmartThings Tracker feature that helps users locate Galaxy SmartTags, but it’s not...
SPH researchers publish new tracker to map private equity involvement in healthcare nationwide
The interactive tracker shows private equity consolidation of hospitals and specialty practices across the U.S.
[NAC] FNCS Solos Qualifiers in NA Central: Qualifier 1 Day 1 Round 1
Drop into the FNCS Solos! The competition kicks off with Round 1, featuring two three-hour sessions—Day 1 and Day 2—with up to 11 matches per session. Eligible players must rank within the top 200,000 on the overall Power Rankings Leaderboard. Players ranked in the top 2,000 may skip Round 1 and automatically qualify for Round 2; however, choosing to compete in Round 1 forfeits that automatic qualification. After both Round 1 sessions conclude, scores from Day 1 and Day 2 will be combined. The top players on the cumulative leaderboard will advance to Round 2: Top 8,000 EU; Top 4,000 NAC; and Top 2,000 OCE, ASIA, ME, BR, and NAW. Round 2 consists of one three-hour session with up to 11 matches. At the end of the session, the top 1,000 players in each region will advance to Round 3. Round 3 also features one three-hour session with up to 11 matches. In Qualifier 1, the top 100 players on the Round 3 leaderboard will advance to Fast Track. In Qualifier 2, the top 108 players will advance to Heats. Good luck and have fun!
MLB playoffs 2026 tracker: Astros win AL West, Phillies hang on for wild card — final playoff bracket, seeding and postseason schedule after MLB finish
[NAC] Override Series: Persona 5 Royal Cup Reload in NA Central: Session 1
Take their hearts! Compete for a chance to earn Persona 5 Royal cosmetic rewards. Good luck and have fun!
WNBA playoffs 2026 tracker: Standings, clinch scenarios, schedule, playoff bracket and more
Phillies playoff tracker: Wild Card race, clinching scenarios and seeding
Track the Phillies’ path to another Red October, including their magic number, Wild Card standings, remaining schedule and potential playoff matchups
Apple’s Next Health Wearable May Look Nothing Like an Apple Watch
The tech giant is reportedly developing a screen-less fitness tracker to compete with Oura and Whoop.
72-Year-Old Put Tracker On Pokémon Delivery Driver's Car
According to local police, the Ohio man admitted to placing the tracker on the delivery driver's car to 'to track her location/delivery of Pokémon cards'
Apple could take on Whoop with a new fitness tracker, report says
Apple may be developing a new fitness tracker as part of its new generation of hardware devices.
OU football recruiting tracker: 4-star linebacker Jay Schell commits
This post tracks OU football's recruitment out of high school. The Sooners currently have 27 commits in the 2027 class and are ranked No. 6 in the nation. They currently
72-Year-Old Ohio Man Put A GPS Tracker On Pokémon Delivery Driver's Vehicle
Pokémon card value is at an all-time high
New York City FC sign defender Matt Miazga via waivers
By Justin RudermanTRANSFER TRACKER STATUS: SigningNew York City FC have claimed defender Matt Miazga off waivers through the end of the 2026 season, the club announced Tuesday.The 31-year-old center ...
MLB playoffs 2026 tracker: Standings, schedule, clinch scenarios, tiebreakers, playoff bracket and more
Announcing our new STEP Grant winners: A Solar System shadow-tracker,…
Three groups of scientists will receive crowdfunded support to further the scientific exploration of space.
[NAW] Champion Focus FNCS Cup Battle Royale : Session 1
Stay focused. Play like a champion. Compete in the Champion Focus FNCS Cup for a chance to earn Champion Focus cosmetic rewards. Put your skills to the test and keep your sights on victory. Good luck and have fun!
Chargers vs. Raiders live tracker: Score, highlights, analysis
Follow along with Chargers Wire for live updates, scoring plays and highlights from the Week 2 game between the Chargers and Raiders.
Override Series: Cyberpunk: Edgerunners Cup Zero Build in Europe: Session 1
Keep running on the edge. Chase the win. Team up as a trio and compete for a chance to earn Cyberpunk: Edgerunners cosmetic rewards. Good luck and have fun!
Red Bull New York sign homegrown forward Dennis Nelich
By MLSsoccer staffTRANSFER TRACKER STATUS: SigningRed Bull New York have signed homegrown winger Dennis Nelich through the 2027-28 season, with options extending until the 2030-31 campaign, the club a...
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!
FC Cincinnati sign Dutch defender Tyrell Malacia
By Jaime UribarriTRANSFER TRACKER STATUS: SigningFC Cincinnati have signed defender Tyrell Malacia, the club announced Friday. The 27-year-old Netherlands international is under contract through Jun...
FC Cincinnati sign homegrown goalkeeper Connor Dale
By MLSsoccer staffTRANSFER TRACKER STATUS: SigningFC Cincinnati have signed homegrown goalkeeper Connor Dale, the club announced Thursday.The 16-year-old US youth international is under contract throu...
New York launches tracker as measles cases hit 57
The New York State Department of Health launched an online dashboard on Tuesday to track a measles outbreak that has infected at least 57 people in the state so far in 2026.
Broadband access predicts health tracker use, UWM research suggests
As Fitbits, Apple watches and Oura Rings grow ubiquitous, UWM research suggests digital inequity doesn't allow them to reach those who could benefit most.
Illinois Women’s Basketball 2026-27 Schedule Tracker
Who will the Fighting Illini face off against this season?
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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