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How Science Works
The 2nd Weather and Climate Livestream is now underway. It is organized by a group of early-career researchers concerned about declining funding for the field and eager to demonstrate how weather and climate research makes a difference in our lives. Last year’s event was a great success, drawing terrific press coverage including a piece in the NY Times. This year features a strong lineup of talks aimed at a general audience — I highly recommend tuning in. Share I gave a talk yesterday about How Science Works in Three Steps. You can see the short presentation here (I’ve appended a transcript below): And please tune into the livestream here. It runs through tomorrow at 6 pm ET. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Cleaned up transcript: Thank you, and thanks to everyone tuning in. I want to talk about something I think a lot of people don’t really understand: how science actually works. Arguments over any scientific topic — climate change, vaccines, you name it — revolve around competing claims. For climate change, the claims are: Is the Earth warming? Are humans to blame? What will the impacts be? Over the last 150 years, the scientific community has developed a remarkably robust method for sorting out which claims are true and which aren’t. That method is what I want to walk through. So how does science generate knowledge? If you ask a high schooler, they’ll give you the version they learned in ninth grade: an individual scientist forms a hypothesis, runs an experiment, and draws a conclusion. That’s more or less what happens at the individual level, though in practice it’s more iterative — you design, test, and refine all at once, landing on a slightly different idea each time until you reach a conclusion about whatever hypothesis you’ve ended up with. But this isn’t science. It’s only step one. Any individual scientist can make mistakes — scientists are human. Maybe there’s a bug in the code, maybe there’s an error in the experiment. Just because someone ran an experiment and reached a conclusion doesn’t mean it’s right, and scientists don’t treat a single result as settled truth. Step two is peer review, the first layer of quality control. The scientist writes up what they did and submits it to a journal, which sends the paper to other experts in the field. Those experts judge whether the methods are sound, whether it properly references prior work, and whether the conclusions actually follow from the data. Ask any scientist and they’ll tell you peer review is miserable — the comments come back brutal, often harsh, and you have to revise and resubmit, sometimes multiple times, before an editor finally accepts the paper. Peer review catches an immense amount of bad science, but it can’t catch all of it. Reviewers get sloppy or overworked, they miss obvious mistakes, and they can’t catch hidden errors — a bug in the code, a misread instrument. So a peer-reviewed paper making it into a journal doesn’t mean the paper is right. Nobody treats a single paper as the final word. That’s where step three comes in: the crucible of science. Important results get retested by the broader community. If you publish something interesting, it gets dissected. Sometimes people try to reproduce your work directly but more often they test its implications. If someone claims X is true, and that implies that Y is also true, then scientists will go check Y. If a claim survives this gauntlet long enough, it becomes accepted. That’s how we generate knowledge. Let me give an example: the ozone hole. In 1985 — and I doubt many people watching were around then, but I remember it well — Joe Farman and his colleagues published observations from Antarctica showing that a huge chunk of ozone was disappearing every year. This was shocking because most atmospheric chemists had expected ozone loss to occur at mid-latitudes and high altitudes, not over the South Pole. When scientists see something they don’t understand, they rush to explain it, and several competing hypotheses quickly appeared in the peer-reviewed literature. One pointed to chlorine chemistry from chlorofluorocarbons. A second blamed nitrogen chemistry, possibly driven by solar proton events — meaning the sun was responsible. A third argued it wasn’t chemistry at all but dynamics: winds were carrying naturally low-ozone air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Then the community went to work testing which theory could survive the crucible. Aircraft flew into the ozone hole and found no nitrogen, ruling out the nitrogen theory. Measurements showed the air in the polar vortex was descending, not rising — which would bring high-ozone air down, eliminating the dynamics theory. Meanwhile, those same flights measured enormous amounts of chlorine, strongly correlated with exactly the regions where ozone was being destroyed. That became known as the “smoking gun” paper, and it established that chlorine chemistry was the cause. Through this process, a consensus emerged. And it’s worth being clear that this consensus is organic. There’s no vote, no poll, no meeting where it gets decided. Scientists go to conferences, talk to one another, and independently arrived at the same answer. It’s the ultimate free market of ideas. After the consensus was established, the peer-reviewed literature doesn’t even mention the rival theories — it simply takes chlorine chemistry as given. That’s what a consensus looks like. It doesn’t mean every single scientist agrees, but it does mean there’s no longer any legitimate debate. So where can you see what scientists actually think? It’s all in the peer-reviewed literature, which contains the entire historical record of the argument: the discovery, the competing theories, the debate, the testing, and finally the community coalescing around one answer. But there’s a lot of room for misrepresentation. You can dig up an old paper claiming the ozone hole was caused by dynamics and wave it around as if there still was a debate about the cause of the ozone hole — without mentioning that the idea was disproven long ago and that even its own authors no longer believe it. There’s a bigger problem, though: the peer-reviewed literature is written in a language I call “nerd.” It’s extremely hard to read — honestly, some of it is hard for me to follow. It takes graduate students years to work through the literature in a single field, so we can’t expect policymakers or ordinary people to do it. This is where scientific assessments come in. The most famous is the IPCC — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The job of an assessment is to read and summarize the peer-reviewed literature, synthesizing what’s settled, what’s been disproven, and what remains genuinely debated. To ensure the assessments accurately summarize the peer-reviewed literature, assessments are written by large teams, which are far less prone to bias than individuals and which dilute the influence of any one scientist with an axe to grind. The teams are deliberately assembled to avoid stacking the deck, and the reports themselves go through multiple rounds of peer review. That rigorous process is exactly why you can trust them and why people consider the IPCC to be the gold standard of what we know about the climate system. An assessment produced through a different process may well not be credible. You can even watch the consensus evolve across assessments. Take the attribution of warming. The 1990 IPCC report said the observed warming was broadly consistent with model predictions but also comparable to natural variability — in other words, we don’t know whether humans are responsible. By 1995, it concluded that the balance of evidence suggested a discernible human influence — a sentence only a committee could write, and one that barely commits to anything. By 2001, most of the warming over the previous 50 years was judged “likely” due to greenhouse gases; by 2007, “very likely”; by 2013, “extremely likely.” The 2023 report says essentially the same as 2013 — there’s not much stronger language available. So, to wrap up: science is our ultimate tool for deciphering the universe — the most successful method we’ve ever developed for determining what’s true and what isn’t. Our understanding is written into the peer-reviewed literature, so if you want to know what scientists think, that’s where to look. And for those of us who don’t speak nerd, scientific assessments are the Rosetta Stone — they translate nerd into English. Let me open the floor to questions. Thank you.
Our Best Stuff on Politics as the Midterms Draw Near
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Dispatch Politics Roundup: Gerrymandering Fallout
Your weekly roundup from Washington, D.C.
Scientists Just Unlocked an Endless Army of Cancer-Fighting Cells
The 'big eaters' are on the way.
47 revelatory hours with Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced
To review this month’s supposed remake of 2013’s Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag, I must first correct the record. Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced isn’t a game about pirates (and assassins) in the 18th century Caribbean. Sure, sure, that’s what the trailers would have you believe. They’ve go their clips of Edward Kenway swinging his swords and steering his pirate ship into cannon-blasting combat against British frigates. Is Resynced truly a pirate game? Of the 47 hours I spent playing Resynced over the past few weeks, I will admit I spent maybe 44 (?) of them collecting plunder with Blackbeard, drinking rum with Anne Bonny and debating the pros and cons of the lawless pirate-run settlement Nassau with Benjamin Hornigold. I may in fact have spent dozens of hours sailing to remote islands, reading treasure maps, opening messages left in bottles, sinking the odd Man o’ War with a well-timed broadside, collecting sea shanties for my crew, befriending a pet monkey, and hunting whales. I am nevertheless neither so Gullible nor so Narrow-Minded as to call the magnificent Resynced a “pirate remake.” Oh no. Forget any reviews of Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced you may have read. Forget what you yourself may have played, if you’ve spent any time with the game since its launch. What Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced is really about I’m here to give you the scoop (spoilers for Resynced’s Animus menu lore, which many players are probably not going to see): Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced, the new game whose development was led by Ubisoft Singapore, is set in the year 2096. It’s about a societal split, about revolution, about an old Assassin’s Creed adventure repurposed in the series’ distant future as propaganda or samizdat. It’s about the overheated future of 2096, essentially conquered by the series’ well-established nefarious Templar-run company Abstergo. (In this future, Abstergo is, among other things, remaking a 2013 pirate movie called Devils of the Caribbean, but this time in VR. The VR version will be backed by a marketing plan that involves AI influencers, a 10,000-avatar “metaverse premiere event” and that manufacturing of memes aimed at “50 million VR nodes.” See what I mean about Abstergo being evil?) Resynced is about a late 21st-century population mollified by the widespread use of Abstergo’s Animus devices which let people experience the lives of historical figures culled from “genetic memories.” It’s about an insurgent faction of Assassins. And it’s about a plan to wake the population into revolutionary fervor by showing them the memories of 18th century pirate Edward Kenway, who—as depicted in the original Black Flag and again in Resynced—gradually comes to an understanding about the Assassins of his day and their centuries old fight for freedom. Resynced is also about an AI developed within the late 21st-century Animus, called Ego. It has found a way to alter genetic memories, to create and show Animus users false ones. The game is about Ego’s efforts to tell the people experiencing Edward Kenway’s memories that Kenway was wrong, that fighting against order is folly, that we should crave a world where “compliance is rewarded with power.” Who are we in this game? We’re an unnamed Animus user in 2096 who experiences Kenway’s journey virtually. At four moments during Kenway’s exploits in the Caribbean our virtual jaunt can be interrupted for 10-15 minutes, as we explore Animus “rifts” where Ego explicitly tries to tell us how wrong Kenway was. None of this is what 2013’s Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag was about, of course. That was a different game, even if you also spent dozens of hours pirating as Kenway in that game, across missions and a map that’s been faithfully reintroduced and rebuilt for Resynced. The 2013 Black Flag was about you playing as an unnamed researcher newly hired in 2013 by Abstergo Entertainment, the video game development wing of the Templars’ evil-corp. In that game, you were assigned to use the Animus to dive into the genetic memories of Desmond Miles, a man who died in Assassin’s Creed III and who was descended from a long line of Assassins (and at least one Templar) whose adventures were featured across the prior AC games. In 2013’s Black Flag, your mission was to plumb the Edward Kenway experience for material that Abstergo could use in productions such as the motion picture Devils of the Caribbean, though the Templars had some ulterior motives for the assignment. Resynced is therefore not a remake of 2013’s Black Flag. It’s a sequel. It is a new game about a new exploration of Edward Kenway’s pirate/assassin journey, set 83 years after the framing sequences of the original game. Resynced provides a new narrative framework that, thanks to the concept of an AI that wants to alter historical memories, arrives with creative justification to tweak a now-classic 13-year old game. That makes Resynced, already a hot seller, a tantalizing hint of where Ubisoft could go with a line of Assassin’s Creed remakes. They could remake the first game, the Ezio games, even the recent ones set in ancient Egypt and Greece. And for each, they could not just modernize the graphics and controls but expand and alter their sequences of events to use them as reference points for a conflict set in the late 21st century, as rival factions try to weaponize historical memories. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, even when that work consists of ravings about Assassin’s Creed’s modern day plot, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe A story most players will probably miss If you didn’t know any of this, I’m not surprised. If you played the game and still didn’t catch it, I’m not a bit shocked. If Ubisoft has no plans to do more of this, I won’t fall down. Almost all of what I’ve described is optional and missable in Black Flag Resynced. I nearly missed it myself, as I planned for a breezy playthrough of an old Assassin’s Creed favorite. Instead, I found myself in a 40+ hour hunt for the “real” story, buried deeper in Resynced than any gold-filled chest. The story of 2096 is Resynced’s meta-story, told in two remote pockets of the game: 1) four optional playable “rifts” that players may find as they proceed through Resynced’s pirate fantasy , 2) in dozens of text files tucked three menus deep in the game’s barely-interactive Animus hub. Assassin’s Creed games have almost always had a meta-story about people in the 21st century (usually matching the game’s release year) and their connections to the main history portions you play. Those meta-stories have always been squeezed into the margins, though seldom as severely and as, uh, graphiaclly simple, as in recent games. Back in 2013, the modern-day exploits of you as an Abstergo Entertainment employee were prominent. They were portrayed via first-person portions that occasionally interrupted the third-person Kenway experience and could be explored for hours, complete with their own missions, side quests and puzzles. Resynced’s 2096 story—of Assassin “Watchers” vs. Abstergo/Tempar goons, of rogue AIs, of panicking scientists, of a woman wondering why her Animus-addicted husband is muttering about Mary Read (“What does he mean by Assassins?”), of a fight for the population’s hearts and minds via varying interpretations of Edward Kenway’s life choices—is mostly told through unlockable text files. The files are interesting. Offered via diary entries, intercepted chats and news reports, they present varied perspectives of a world in crisis. One set works as a narrative puzzle as it reveals the Rashomonic interpretations of a massacre, or was that a successful Assassin hit? Another favorite reveals the rising bitterness of a person who, through Edward Kenway’s journey, now shakes at the ignored evil around him. One surmises that Ubisoft is averse to putting the Assassin’s Creed’s meta-story in the way of more marketable pirate playgrounds and ninja/samurai epics. Instead, we get a better-than-nothing text-in-menus approach introduced in 2025’s Assassin’s Creed Shadows. In Shadows, players unlocked the meta-story text files largely via time-gated missions that called on the user to kill X number of enemy type Y, clear three enemy castles, re-win a three-phase fighting tournament, and other grinds. Time restrictions on accessing these missions and unlocking the files meant it could take players months to access the full story in-game. But even in the most hardcore Assassin’s Creed hangouts, the fanbase instead seemed to throw up their hands rather than grind to keep up. In Resynced, Ubisoft has shown some mercy, diminishing the amount of new text files that are tied to timed grinds. Now, most of the text-based 2096 lore are associated with “data file” collectibles that players can find in the world. That includes a batch of written entries that explain a historical link between the feudal Japan era in Shadows and the piracy adventures in Black Flag. Players who explore a lot will find dozens of data files, though the game does not appear to offer any in-game tracker for finding each one. You just need to keep looking for them. As of this writing, I have most of them, but not all. I can’t find any full guide for them online. And even Ubisoft’s optional $5 microtransaction that reveals lots of items in-game does not appear to reveal the locations of the text files (at least the official description omits them from its collectibles list). That’s not a huge bother, because tracking the data files down compelled me to re-explore the waves and islands of Black Flag. That was a thoroughly pleasant task to do for the first time in a dozen years. I expect many players, though, will be content to wait for the files to be reproduced in an online AC wiki somewhere, the easier to read on a web page. It may not seem enticing to play a video game in order to gradually unlock pages of text to read. Why not, you may ask, just read a book, where they put the pages in order? For one, they’ve not tucked this latest installment of Assassin’s Creed’s meta saga in a book. I also enjoy the unordered delivery, the dawning comprehension of a story about 2096’s desperate people and questionable tech, which I glimpsed first at its middle, then the end, then the front, then other moments in between1. I am also enamored with the idea of the Assassin’s Creed games I’ve previously played, including Black Flag, being repurposed for an information war. The ideas in Resynced’s meta-story, which builds off characters and ideas in Shadows’ chunks of text, are strong. The potential of where they could go with it is exciting. As for the pirate stuff? Looks great, controls pretty well, is fun to play and oh so speedy in terms of how much of a good time you can have with each sit-down. It never gets old to chase a new shanty page across a rooftop, bombard a fort with upgraded mortars or use a diving bell to explore sunken wrecks (hats off to the team at Ubisoft Barcelona that worked on the underwater portions in Resynced; that team is now facing layoffs, such is the misery of modern gaming and oft-troubled Ubisoft). New pirate missions in Resynced involving new ally characters are brief, dramatic and add more to Edward’s story, even if the gameplay perks they provide barely enhance the gameplay. A new denouement for high-class pirate Stede Bonnet is affecting; a new hunt for Blackbeard’s treasure is a welcome extra moment. A new epilogue to hunt down a pirate killer, on the other hand, over-complicates Kenway’s character. The ending credits remain my favorite of any game I’ve ever played. Black Flag provides great source material. The revisit is well-made and a great sign of what could be. It is offered in a different wrapper that hints at an opportunity for more interesting remakes to come, should Ubisoft choose to pursue such treasures—and as we brace to resist or comply with an Abstergo future. 1 The messages that Edward Kenway finds in bottles tell another out-of-order story, one about a man reckoning with the strange memories and voices he’s heard in his head since he was a boy. That tale was also in the 2013 game and develops into one of Black Flag’s most compelling character arcs. In Resynced, it has lost its climax, because the bottle story previously paid off in the halls of the first-person Abstergo Entertainment, which is exclusive to the older game. An altered resolution, written by the 2013 game’s lead writer is fine, doesn’t invalidate the 2013 version, but makes for an inferior final note.
Unlocking KRAS: Turning Science into Survival
Thanks to the dedication of generations of scientists and researchers, we’ve reached a tipping point where KRAS has been unlocked. PanCAN has been and will continue to be the backbone of this effort.
Bonus 236: A Term of Self-Inflicted Wounds
Within minutes of the Supreme Court handing down the birthright citizenship ruling on Tuesday and rising for its summer recess, its defenders were pointing to that decision (alongside the late-arriving mail-in ballots ruling on Monday and the tariffs ruling from February) as decisive proof that the Court really is “above politics,” and that criticisms of the justices for behaving more like politicians in robes than like judges are thus unfair. For a particularly thoughtful version of this claim, see Professor Will Baude’s opening response to the latest New York Times written roundtable about the Court with Baude, Professor Kate Shaw, and me. In that roundtable, I already offered one of the two major arguments against this thesis—that it’s an assessment of the numerator without regard to the denominator, and that a full account of the Court’s behavior throughout OT2025 suggests that the Court behaved even more politically during the current term than during even the previous (highly politicized) one. Just to take one of many data points, last term (OT2024), there were six rulings in argued cases in which all six Republican-appointed justices were in the majority and all three of the Democratic appointees were in dissent (along with a slew of such rulings on the emergency docket). This term, there were … 13. (Along with two 6-3 summary reversals and 10 rulings on the emergency docket from which the three Democratic appointees all dissented.) Today’s bonus issue addresses the flip side of that coin. In particular, below the fold, I identify four different moments in which the justices could have acted in ways to specifically defuse charges of political behavior—and opted instead to lean all the way in. As much as end-of-term narratives focus on what the Court did, and on the takeaways from individual rulings, consider today’s post an attempt to identify opportunities that the Court missed, as well. At least in the examples discussed below, by opting for the outcome that made the Court look more transparently political, the Court inflicted a series of (unnecessary) credibility wounds on itself. For those who aren’t paid subscribers, we’ll be back Monday with our regular coverage of the Court. For those who are, please read on.
I Finally Realized How I Know 'Sweet Magnolias' Star Brooke Elliott & It Hit Me Like a Truck
I finally realized where I knew Sweet Magnolias star Brooke Elliott from, and the answer unlocked a whole TV memory. Here's the iconic role I completely forgot about.
What trainers actually think about the 12-3-30 workout
Have we finally unlocked exercise’s biggest secret? Or is this yet another lie perpetrated Big Treadmill?
Rifle Finally Unlocked In Bully 20 Years Later Thanks To Wild Glitch
It's imperative that we not let this news reach Jack Thompson
Google just unlocked 'Agent Mode' for Gemini 3.1 — here are 7 things it can now do for you
From "inbox zero" to full trip planning, here is how to unlock Google’s powerful new agentic workflows
Steelers may have unlocked their offense with a heavy dose of Jaylen Warren
Coach Mike McCarthy's bold decision to start Max Iheanachor and Brock Hoffman on the right side of the offensive line contributed to the running back's huge day.
The Lasting Consequences of Bad Climate Science
The retirement of flawed baseline emissions scenarios will initiate changes across energy policy, regulation, and law.
Updated George Pickens Fantasy Outlook 2026: Can the Cowboys Star Replicate Last Year’s Success?
George Pickens saw his fantasy football stock get unlocked during his first season in Big D, and the 25-year-old carries lofty expectations into 2026 as a result. The big question is about the type of stat line he can provide if CeeDee Lamb stays on the field, a worry that drafters don’t seem to have.
Commission to present long-awaited Innovation Act proposal
The European Commission will present its proposal for an EU Innovation Act on September 9, with a focus on strengthening public procurement as a driver of innovation and facilitating the use of intellectual property (IP) to secure financing.The proposal was initially meant to be published in March. No explanation has been given for the delay, but it may be linked to issues with the associated impact assessment.The Commission’s Regulatory Scrutiny Board issued a negative opinion on the draft impact assessment following its meeting on January 28, and again on February 27, according to a draft of the Innovation Act published by Agence Europe.In it, the Commission lays out the steps it has taken to address the board’s concerns, including avoiding overlap with the upcoming revision of the EU Public Procurement Directives and removing a mandatory target for EU member states to increase overall innovation procurement spending.The Innovation Act, which was included in last year’s start-up and scale-up strategy, is meant to reduce barriers to bringing innovative solutions to the market and speed up the path from research to commercialisation.Central to the initiative, according to the draft proposal, is the introduction of a harmonised EU framework for the procurement of R&D services by public buyers, including pre-commercial procurement. The plans would also introduce an EU preference in public R&D procurement.“Other leading economies in the world are investing five to eight times more in public procurement of R&D than the EU,” it notes. In Europe, the lack of harmonised rules has led to divergent practices across the bloc, legal uncertainty and limited use of joint, cross-border R&D procurement, it says.Related articlesCommission postpones European Innovation ActParliament draft report adds EU Inc safeguards to prevent fraud and regime shoppingThe text highlights a lack of clarity around the valuation and monetisation of IP as another barrier to the commercialisation of research results. Currently in the EU, IP is rarely used as collateral in financing, which restricts the growth potential of innovative firms. A key reason for this, according to the Commission, is the absence of a harmonised methodology for valuing IP.To address this issue, it plans to introduce an EU-wide IP valuation framework, a digital marketplace for commercialising IP, and a competence centre to help innovators access IP-backed finance.The issue was highlighted by a recent report by the European Union Intellectual Property Office, which referred to developing a “functional market for IP-backed finance” as a “core competitiveness imperative for the next decade,” and key to ensuring capital unlocked by other EU initiatives reaches innovative firms.The Innovation Act is one of several ways the Commission hopes to reduce fragmentation in the single market and help innovative companies to scale in Europe, complementing other initiatives such as the EU-wide corporate regime, dubbed EU Inc.The leaked draft is not the final version that will be published on September 9, according to a Commission official.
Scientists boost strawberry flavor and nutrition without changing growth
A surprising genetic twist shows that boosting a seemingly ordinary “housekeeping” gene can dramatically improve fruit quality without any trade-offs. By increasing the activity of a tRNA-related gene in strawberries, researchers unlocked richer color, stronger aroma, and higher levels of health-boosting compounds like anthocyanins and terpenoids. Even more striking, these enhancements came with zero impact on plant growth, fruit size, or sweetness—avoiding the usual downsides of metabolic tinkering.
How well have past GOTY winners sold?
We’re less than two months away from 2026’s The Game Awards, and what a year it’s been for fantastic games, including Resident Evil Requiem, Forza Horizon 6, Slay the Spire II, the Blood of Dawnwalker, and Control Resonant – just to name a few. So as we approach the end of the year, we thought we’d look back on our estimates for the GOTY winners of the past four years. In terms of revenue, Elden Ring (2022 winner), Baldur’s Gate 3 (2023), Astro Bot (2024), and Expedition 33 (2025) have generated a combined $3.8B via 73M copies sold: Let’s have a look, then. Elden Ring has generated $2B in revenue Elden Ring is a phenomenon in every sense. It’s sold a whopping 36.4M copies across Steam (50%), PS5 (35%), and Xbox (15% across console and PC). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring also just passed an astronomical milestone: $2B in revenue. While PlayStation and Xbox account for half of Elden Ring’s copies sold across these three platforms, they account for 57.5% of revenue. This – as ever – is due to regional pricing and the higher relative share of PC gamers in lower-priced markets. For example, around 17.4% of Elden Ring’s Steam copies sold were in China, where the game costs about 26% less than the price in the States. There’s an … interesting narrative going around these days that console gamers are only interested in ball-and-gun games and have the patience for little else. Well, Elden Ring’s impressive sales prove that is simply not true, and across all platforms. What’s more, over 9.8M people have played Elden Ring for over 100 hours, with nearly 3.5M people getting all of the achievements and trophies. For reference, 10.9% of Elden Ring’s PlayStation players have the platinum trophy, while 10.5% of players on Steam and 3.9% of Xbox players unlocked all the achievements. Git gud, Xbox players! Of the 1.5M people who played Elden Ring on PlayStation last month, 4% also played Dark Souls 3 last month, 4% played Bloodborne, and 3% played Sekiro. There’s those Soulsborne diehards for you. By many accounts, including my own, Elden Ring is one of the best games of all time. It’s an evergreen seller that will continue to be a cash cow for Bandai and FromSoftware for years to come. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring has sold another 2M copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox this year, generating almost $110M. This means it’s outperforming many of this year’s high-profile releases. Even Elden Ring’s standalone run-based PvE spinoff, 2025’s Nightreign, has sold 7.8M copies and generated $282M in revenue. Baldur’s Gate 3 is another billion-dollar-plus banger Another cross-platform phenomenon is Baldur’s Gate 3, which has sold 23.2M copies and generated over $1.2B in revenue. About 18.7M of these copies (80.6%) are via Steam, 2.9M via PS5 (12.7%), and 1.6M (6.8%) via Xbox. Around 1.3M folks on Steam bought BG3 before it hit 1.0. The PlayStation version launched about a month after the PC 1.0 release, while the Xbox version came four months later due to technical issues around developing local co-op on the Series S. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Across platforms, Baldur’s Gate 3’s monthly active users have never dropped below 2M, including 2.2M MAUs last month (68.5% on Steam, 21.9% on PS5, and 9.6% on Xbox). And it still regularly brings in 280K to 400K players every day: About 1% of BG3’s Steam player base has played for over 500 hours! That’s a little under 200K people. Astro Bot is also an evergreen seller, albeit a more niche, family one Astro Bot, 2024’s winner, has now sold 4.7M copies and generated $291M in revenue. The budget, including marketing, is almost certainly under $100M, given the small Japan-based core team and three-year dev timeline. You can really see why the tides are changing toward less expensive hubs. Astro Bot is the only first-party winner on this list, but follows other first-party winners of The Last of Us Part II (2020’s winner), God of War (2018), and Breath of the Wild (2017). Around 46.6% of Astro Bot’s copies sold have been physical, which is far higher than the typical game. This makes sense for a couple of reasons: There’s a large family audience for this one, and physical boxes are an item to wrap when giving Astro as a gift. Astro has collector value for the PlayStation core (this is nostalgia-fueled platformer celebrating PlayStation’s history) Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Astro is another one of those games that continues selling over time, regularly selling more than 100K a month. It’s sold around 1M more copies this year ($60M in revenue) and is a popular title with families. We can see this using the Alinea platform’s MAU crossover tool: Astro Bot’s top #2, #3, and #4 games by crossover in any given month this year are Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox – without fail. The #1 title every month, though, is Astro’s Playroom, a pack-in with all PS5 consoles. For every month this year, between 20% and 30% of Astro Bot players also played Astro’s Playroom that month. So the free pack-in is a noice funnel for converting players to a full paid product. Expedition 33 sells 8.7M despite Game Pass cannibalisation Finally, we have last year’s winner – Expedition 33. The turn-based-RPG banger has generated $366M via 8.7M copies sold, with 58.8% on Steam, 35.7% on PS5, and 5.5% on Xbox. Xbox’s share of copies sold is this low due to Expedition 33 launching on Game Pass, where 4.3M people across console and PC accessed the game. A little under 700K Xbox players used their subscription to play Expedition 33 this year. That said, the game’s 1.5-year Game Pass deal ended last week on October 16, and we’re already beginning to see a positive trend on Expedition 33’s copies sold via Xbox (but the jury’s still out!). There’s understandably a lot of French pride behind this one, as France is the game’s #3 market on both Steam and PlayStation. Vive la France! One thing that stood out to me is that the GOTY winners aren’t $300M Hollywood productions made in the US. They’re mostly mid-budget studios outside the traditional AAA cost centres. Lots to think about there. Also, good games sell well; who’d have thunk it!? And there’s a whole load of them this year, with GTA 6 still to come, too. GTA just made the cutoff point for the VGAs this year. What a coincidence! Loading... Cool links and other stuff Our physical games newsletter from Tuesday was picked up by GameSpot, Eurogamer, TweakTown, and a bunch of others. We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply right here on Substack/email, and we’ll set you up. Next week, we’ve got some exciting news regarding the future of our newsletter, so stay tuned! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
Scientists Just Unlocked an Endless Army of Cancer-Fighting Cells
The 'big eaters' are on the way.
Scientists have just unlocked the secrets of an ancient scroll torched by Mount Vesuvius
After a centuries-long struggle, scholars managed to read five feet of text, using machine-learning methods they hope can unlock further discoveries.
Dispatch Politics Roundup: Euphoria in the Capitol
Your weekly roundup from Washington, D.C.
Google launches new Android security feature to help uncover spyware attacks
Intrusion Logging is a new part of Android’s Advanced Protection Mode, which aims to help protect human rights activists, journalists, and dissidents from government spyware attack and law enforcement forensic devices.
The strangest transfer story of 2026 starts with a loophole
By entering the portal as a track athlete, he unlocked a path most football players never consider.
E.l.f. Beauty’s CEO wants to make a beauty empire for Gen Z
Affordable beauty brand e.l.f. has unlocked something that’s mystified many retailers: how to win over the ever-persnickety Gen Z.
‘Keys Unlocked’ TV series spotlights local real estate, lifestyle
CUDJOE KEY — REAL Shows Network (RSN), a national television platform for real estate and lifestyle storytelling, has added “Keys Unlocked,” a new locally hosted series serving the Florida Keys,
Trump denies Colorado disaster aid for wildfires, prompting accusations of ‘political games’
Colorado politicians on both sides of the aisle are pushing back after President Donald Trump’s administration denied two disaster declaration requests that would have unlocked federal funds for recovery efforts. Gov. Jared Polis said in...
What are tomorrow's quantum threats?
Most people trust that the passwords, bank accounts, medical records and private messages they use every day are protected by encryption. But as quantum computing advances, some of today’s most widely used security tools could eventually become breakable. That means information stolen now could potentially be saved and unlocked years later, when quantum computers are powerful enough to crack protections that current computers cannot.
Carrier-financed iPhones in the US now get locked to that carrier
Previously, you could buy an iPhone from Apple using carrier financing and you would get an unlocked unit. There is still a way to get unlocked units, though.
How To Start To Unlock Diablo 4: Lord Of Hatred’s Secret Cow Level
The Secret Cow Level is back in Diablo 4 and it almost unlocked. There's a lot of prep work you need to do to get to the current point, however.
How Scientists Finally Cracked RAS in Pancreatic Cancer
How a half century of basic science, public funding, and human persistence unlocked a way to target one of cancer’s most elusive drivers — and treat one of its deadliest cancers.
The most coveted endorsement in SF politics — and why Pelosi hasn’t given it
The speaker emerita’s nod would have unlocked funding and allies in a heavily contested election.
Dispatch Politics Roundup: The Cruise Ship Dispatch
Your weekly roundup from Washington, D.C.
LaMelo Ball Might Have Just Unlocked a Secret Timberwolves Weapon
LaMelo Ball’s most obvious impact on the Minnesota Timberwolves will come through his passing, pace and ability to make life […]
Apple Makes A Big Change To Carrier-Financed Device Purchases
Apple has changed their policy regarding device purchases via carrier installment. No longer will your financed device be unlocked.
Amazon Fallout Countdown Turns Out Not to Be Fallout 3 or Fallout: New Vegas Remastered — Here's What It Revealed
The Amazon Fallout TV countdown that some had hoped would announce a Fallout 3 or Fallout: New Vegas remaster turned out to be neither. Here's what actually unlocked.
Quest VR Headset Becomes Unlocked Hardware
The Quest virtual reality headset gets a fully unlocked bootloader thanks to the QuestStack tool, which automates a complex process of privilege escalation to provide stable, privileged access to t…
You can get an unlocked Google Pixel 11 for as little as $99 at Best Buy (sort of)
Best Buy's Pixel 11 preorder deals are no joke.
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Remastered for PS5 Pro will run at 60fps with ray tracing and support PSSR
The performance mode on PS5 Pro gets a bump and can run unlocked and it can hit up to "90fps or something".
Behind the scenes of Science Unlocked
From nerve-wracking boat rides on a Kenyan lake to translating complex scientific concepts into stories everyone can understand. Plus, hear why a dedicated researcher named Patrick became an unexpected hero!
With return, Philip Rivers extends NFL health insurance plan for 5 more years
Though his Hall of Fame candidacy now has to wait, Rivers unlocked some important health benefits with his return.
Former NFL player arrested in connection to business fire, according to West Melbourne Police
A former NFL player is facing serious charges in connection with a fire at a West Melbourne landscaping business. Police say the suspect set fire to multiple company vehicles at Tropic Care of Florida after breaking into the property and taking a can of gas from an unlocked work vehicle Wednesday morning.
Check out your personal Xbox stats for 2025 with #MyYearOnXbox
Want to know how many games you've played and achievements you've unlocked this year? Check out your Xbox Wrapped to find out!
Mega Man: Dual Override Adds Some Nice New-School Touches to the Beloved Old-School Formula
Proto Man offers a distinctly different challenge than Mega Man. Not necessarily harder, just different. It’s worth noting that you won’t be switching back and forth between the two; at the start of your playthrough you’ll select which character to control for the entire run, offering some potential replayability to see the game both ways. I’m particularly curious about the various chips that can be unlocked, how those will affect gameplay, and what sort of moveset a fully upgraded Proto Man will have at his disposal. For that, I’ll have to wait for Mega Man: Dual Override’s launch, scheduled for Spring 2027.
Trevor Lawrence Credits Jaguars’ HC Coen for Changing His Mentality
The Jaguars star quarterback finally unlocked his MVP potential by adopting Liam Coen’s fiery mentality to transform from inconsistent talent into a commanding leader.
Great Women of Science: Ada Yonath, the Nobelist exemplifying perseverance
She was told she was chasing the impossible. She persisted through poverty, skepticism, and 25,000 failed attempts. In the end, Ada Yonath unlocked one of biology’s most elusive structures: the ribosome, transforming our understanding of how antibiotics work and paving the way for drugs that can overcome antibiotic resistance. Her story is not only one of scientific brilliance, but of extraordinary perseverance.
Correspondents’ dinner lacked highest security level despite presence of top officials
The White House Correspondents’ Dinner, which was attended by the President and many Cabinet members, was not given top security status that would have unlocked the full weight of federal security resources.
Apple announces first-ever foldable iPhone, starting at $1,999
The screen will be compatible with the iPhone Pencil, currently available only for iPad users, and can also be unlocked with Apple Watch, according to Apple.
Intel announces $299 Core Ultra 7 270K and $199 Core Ultra 5 250K CPUs
Intel Arrow Lake Refresh official, but there's no 290K Plus Today Intel is announcing its Core Ultra 200S Plus desktop series, adding four new unlocked
Scientists solve a 30-year rye pollen mystery that could transform cancer research
Scientists have finally solved a nearly 30-year-old mystery surrounding two unusual molecules found in rye pollen that once showed an intriguing ability to help animals fight tumors. By determining their exact 3D structures, researchers have unlocked the blueprint needed to investigate how these natural compounds interact with the immune system and which parts may be responsible for their cancer-fighting effects.
How AI Is Driving Both Parties Back to Their Roots
The dot-com boom shifted political alignments. AI is shifting them back.
“Survivor” winner Dee Valladares officially revealed as final “Big Brother” season 28 player
The reality TV champ was unveiled on “Big Brother: Unlocked”
Scientists just unlocked a cheaper way to make clean hydrogen fuel
Researchers have developed a durable new catalyst that produces clean hydrogen without relying on expensive platinum metals. The breakthrough could make renewable hydrogen fuel cheaper, more efficient, and easier to scale for real-world energy use.
A Vocation Discovered: Dwayne Simmons’ Journey to Becoming a Renowned Neuroscientist
Since earning his bachelor’s degree from Pepperdine University, Dwayne Simmons has forged a career as an esteemed neuroscience professor, researcher, and newly inducted fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). In looking back on his accomplished vocational journey, the neuroscience considers his undergraduate education in Malibu to be the key that unlocked his potential.
Cleve Moler, Who Unlocked the Power of Computing for Millions, Dies at 86
He built interfaces that allowed engineers, scientists and everyday people to solve difficult problems without having to write the underlying code.
Resident Evil Requiem update live, adds Leon Must Die Forever mini-game
The much-discussed mini-game for Resident Evil Requiem has just been made available as part of a new update for the game, which is revealed to be Leon Must Die Forever. Nintendo Switch 2 players can access it now. The mode can be unlocked after finishing the main story. According to Capcom, it includes “the nonstop combat action that players know...
Science unlocked: opening knowledge to accelerate global progress
A new docufilm hosted by CNBC explores Frontiers' missin to make science open and why it makes sense today more than ever to accelerate breakthroughs in health,
ENTERTAINMENT: Musical premieres; library program covers Black musicians
Experience the premiere of "Cotta Blue," a theatrical musical inspired by the Mississippi Delta, featuring music, awards, and a post-show jam session at the Ritz Theatre in Malvern.
For a Mere $2 Million, You Could Own Three Books That Unlocked the Universe
At Sotheby’s, a feast of rare science books includes volumes from Copernicus, Galileo and Newton that together revolutionized human understanding of the cosmos.
A new force of nature is reshaping the planet, study finds
Human societies didn’t just adapt to the planet—they learned to reshape it. From early fire use to today’s global supply chains, our cultural and social innovations have unlocked extraordinary power to transform Earth and improve human life. But that progress has come with serious costs, including climate change, pollution, and mass extinction. Instead of framing this era—the Anthropocene—as pure crisis, Erle Ellis argues it’s also proof of something hopeful: when people work together, they can drive massive positive change.
NVIDIA GPU Hotspot Temperature Has Been Unlocked Through Mods, & Shows Widespread Thermal Issues Affecting RTX 50 GPUs That Throttle Gaming Performance
Mods have unlocked NVIDIA's GPU Hotspot measurement, which can give you a clue why your latest card is running at lower performance.
“Big Brother: Unlocked” announces hosting shakeup and new game twist
Taylor and Derrick are back, but with a new cohost.
Legal docs reveal Miyamoto originally saw Donkey Kong as "a human in a gorilla costume," disclose other names considered for the game/character
Nightmare unlocked
I found 5 ways to use my Android camera that have nothing to do with photos
I unlocked completely different uses for the camera
Getting Brown proved to be the move that unlocked …
Getting Brown proved to be the move that unlocked …
‘Voices Unlocked’ fills St. Andrew’s Hall with science, song and support
The second annual “Voices Unlocked” event was held at St. Andrew’s Hall on Sept. 17. With its live music, resource booths, and speakers from the scientific community, the event aimed
Mario Kart World 1.7.0 update out now, new Knockout Tour routes added
Mario Kart World has just received a hefty 1.7.0 update. Nintendo Switch 2 users should be seeing the version roll out now. This update brings quite a lot to the table, with the headliner being two new routes in knockout tour. They have also added the ability to use unlocked stickers in photo mode, balance adjustments, and a whole lot...
Dipoto details how Seattle Mariners unlocked Eduard Bazardo
Eduard Bazardo was an unheralded trade add in 2023, but he was a player the Seattle Mariners were excited to attain and make a few key adjustments with.
Dispatch Politics Roundup: California, Here We Come
Your weekly roundup from Washington, D.C.
Dispatch Politics Roundup: The State of State Politics
Your weekly roundup from Washington, D.C.
Apple just closed a popular workaround for buying an unlocked iPhone
Apple has closed a workaround that let you buy an unlocked iPhone with carrier financing. Here's what changed, and what it means for you
Poll: How many Mythic achievements have you unlocked on Xbox?
Now that we're tracking Xbox's new platinum rival, for this week's poll, we want to know: how many Mythic achievements have you unlocked on Xbox?