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2026 State of the Climate Report Shows a Planet Reaching Its Limits
The seventh edition of an annual report analyzing Earth’s "planetary vital signs” indicates that Earth systems are rapidly destabilizing, some at an accelerating rate. The report, published today in BioScience, analyzed 16 of these signs, including greenhouse gas emissions levels, ocean heat content and acidity, the mass of major ice sheets, the number of hot days, Earth's surface temperature, and more.
Daldrop Opens for Business in Southern Oswego County
$10 Million Facility in the L. Michael Treadwell Oswego County Industrial Park marks the largest expansion outside of Germany in the company’s 73-year history By Stefan Yablonski [caption id=attachment_11076 align=alignright width=450] Daldrop SBB CEO Jens Daldrop addresses attendees at the 2025 groundbreaking for the project. Daldrop also chairs the advisory board of Germany-based Daldrop Group.[/caption] A new era of cleanroom technology is underway in Central New York. The Daldrop Group’s advanced manufacturing facility and U.S. headquarters is physically built within the L. Michael Treadwell Oswego County Industrial Park. This industrial park is located in the town of Schroeppel. It marks the largest expansion outside of Germany in the company’s 73-year history. Daldrop SBB is based in Neckartailfingen, Germany. It is a global supplier of cleanroom technology, primarily to the pharmaceutical industry. It designs and builds advanced cleanroom environments for the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical technology industries. It nvested $10 million in the new project. “We broke ground in 2025; we were under construction all winter. We just opened this spring, early spring,” said Benjamin Morrow, operations manager and control. The company consolidated sites in Salina and DeWitt into the industrial park in Schroeppel, Morrow added. “The next move here is to maximize every square inch of this facility and then we are already looking at the expansion. So, it is more capital investment on equipment — definitely higher-end automation in additional equipment so we can produce more components and then to support the ever-growing base in North America,” Morrow continued. “We are the headquarters for service, maintenance and spare parts. So as Daldrop has more and more installations, they need more and more service, maintenance and spare parts. So that will come out of this facility as well — it already is.” “As a global leader in GMP (global manufacturing support) pharmaceutical cleanrooms for decades, I am very proud to bring manufacturing jobs to Upstate New York,” said Mike Sullivan, president of Daldrop US operations. Key to choosing Southern Oswego County [caption id=attachment_11077 align=alignright width=450] Daldrop SBB at the L. Michael Treadwell Oswego County Industrial Park when the company announced the start of construction.[/caption] Sullivan said that the selection of the Schroeppel industrial park was mainly due to the help of Operation Oswego County and two people in the organization. “Prior to being purchased by Daldrop International from the Stuttgart region of Germany, Vince Bongio was a founding partner in SBB Inc. as well as our head of engineering. We based out of Syracuse due to Vince’s skills in HVAC and the manufacturing capabilities found in Syracuse,” said Sullivan. Bongio moved to Syracuse from California in the 1970s to work in Carrier’s Industrial Division of Large-Scale Petrochemical Refrigeration. Next, he advanced to General Electric’s TV Tube Plant where he got into cleanrooms ,leading to his role of head of engineering for Clestra Cleanrooms where he met Sullivan, their New England distributor. “Vince Bongio is a phenomenal engineer. Formerly of Carrier, he grew up in California and went to Cal Poly,” Sullivan explained. “Carrier hired him right out of college and he moved to Syracuse. He is the reason we are in Syracuse today. He is retiring this year. We are very proud and his legacy is having brought Daldrop to Syracuse.” In 2000, Sullivan, Bazinet, Bongio Inc (SBB) was formed with engineering and manufacturing, based in Syracuse, and sales and construction based in Massachusetts as it is today. “SBB Inc. started in Syracuse. I had a design–build contracting firm out of Massachusetts that was primarily doing all the new technologies coming out of MIT,” Sullivan said. “I started a manufacturing side. A big thing for cleanrooms is the HVAC. Most cleanroom suppliers are architecturally focused people. The strength in Syracuse is HVAC. So, SBB developed with me running sales and construction out of Massachusetts and manufacturing out of Syracuse.” “Daldrop wanted to have a relationship in the States and of those who approached us, they were the only ones who really understood HVAC. So, we were the right fit for them. We did a joint venture focused out of Massachusetts from 2012 to 2018 leveraging their technologies,” Sullivan explained. “The commitment was if we brought their product to the States, we would do that if they built it here. “The pieces that had to be in place to make the investment, they wanted to acquire us, we were great with that. If you looked at business recommendations the general guidance was to build in a low labor area — something like North Carolina — but Syracuse had a strong background in HVAC and we chose Syracuse and Oswego County to be our headquarters in the States. So, it is built off of history, technology and the existing supply chain — bringing jobs back to the area.” During the initial discussions with Daldrop about coming to the U.S., SBB agreed to sell under the conditions Daldrop would manufacture in the U.S. There are many areas that offer incentives and economic packages, but the strength of HVAC expertise and skilled manufacturing was a big part of the discussions for site selection. Coming home [caption id=attachment_11078 align=alignright width=451] Construction moves forward in March at the L. Michael Treadwell Oswego County Industrial Park.[/caption] The second key person to building in Oswego County is Ben Morrow, Sullivan added. “Ben has been working with Daldrop SBB for more than 12 years and has advanced to COO of manufacturing and engineering. Ben grew up in Phoenix, so building a factory for the Germany company in Phoenix is a strong success for both his community and the appreciation of Ben’s skills as a team leader,” Sullivan said. “I went to high school in Phoenix. So, this is like full circle for me. It’s a small world,” Morrow said. “I hadn’t been back to Phoenix since graduation. This is one of the properties that John Trimble of C&S, he is the former president of C&S, he just retired, suggested. He and I were very good personal friends. John was from Mexico and I was from Phoenix. We knew each other from high school. And the architect of this building, Ed Smart of smartDESIGN Architecture in Batavia — I went to high school with him. So, this was a project that’s full circle a coming home kind of thing. The three of us knew each other — kind of like it was meant to be. Very serendipitous.” Schroeppel was one option for Daldrop to consider; the original intent was just to get a warehouse to store some product, he added. The facility is Daldrop’s largest outside of their native country. Total payroll at the facility will be approximately $2.4 million once fully staffed. “Here is 32,000 square feet and we plan to expand and put in an additional 10,000 square feet,” Morrow said. “We have 17.5 acres. We can put at least three more facilities here, just on this property. The master plan submitted for the current building is the first of possible three buildings on the campus.” “If we can find the right people and advance the production according to the plan, we should be able to grow for the next decade. One of the first jobs we filled was our new HR manager, with a primary focus posting and filling new positions,” Sullivan said. Stop the exodus, start hiring [caption id=attachment_11080 align=alignright width=452] Principals at the local Daldrop SBB headquarters, from left: Ben Morrow, Mike Sullivan and Jens Daldrop.[/caption] “I have been coming to Syracuse for 30 years. One of the things I had a hard time watching was the exodus of factories. One of the toughest things is to watch it with my partners’ kids who had to move away for jobs. It is important for us to give opportunity where people’s kids don’t have to leave the area to get work,” Sullivan said. “My responsibility is to find people who have skill sets that want to work and then I have to build opportunity for that work to happen. “After years of watching companies and Vince’s three sons all move out of the areas to get jobs, it is important to us to provide opportunities for the Syracuse region and help grow our company. We have been hiring for our new factory and will continue for the next few years.” “We are hiring and will continue to hire. Currently we have about 19 on staff right now,” Morrow said. “We expect to grow that by about 10 to 15 in the next 12 to 18 months or so. We are at 19 currently — one in the wings. It’s been great being able to hire locally. All these folks that we’ve been hiring, they all live within a few miles from here.” “We hired someone this past week (end of August). She grew up in the area, raised a family and is working down in Florida. She just took a job with us so she can move back and be with her family. We will be moving her back and she should be starting in October. We are very happy to see this happen,” Sullivan said. “I feel strongly about having a spot for the kids to not have to move out of the area. It is better to have people moving into the area.” Currently, Daldrop SBB has openings for finance manager, COO of construction and delivery, as well as mechanical, electrical designers and Revit modelers, construction managers, commissioning agents and many other skills that are needed. Along with Daldrop’s reputation in life science cleanrooms, there is a strong history in semiconductor, electronics, glass, photonics, aerospace and other markets. This may be helpful with any new technologies building in the market such as the Micron expansion and the support network, Sullivan said. “We acquired this property and closed on it two months before any announcement from Micron. It is serendipitous that they’re right down the street from us,” Morrow added. “Everybody started thinking ‘you guys are supporting Micron.’ We were here first. That is not a goal of ours. We may or may not … they are talking to us; it is an opportunity.” The long run [caption id=attachment_11079 align=alignright width=450] Benjamin Morrow, operations manager and control at Daldlrop, speaks during a recent ribbon-cutting event in Schroeppel.[/caption] “Long term, we will expand the Phoenix facility,” Sullivan said. “We built our facility with a campus approach. Sustainability is big. We designed our rooms to be more sustainable. Our building has no gas lines for heat. We put geothermal wells in the ground. We put heat pumps in for heating and cooling out of those wells and we put a large layer of solar panels up on the roof. We worked with National Grid for metering. Our building is a high efficiency model. We upgraded all the instillation and the glass filtering. So, it is a very green building. We will have a very minimal carbon footprint. It also adheres to LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) construction standards.” “We are a bunch of HVAC engineers. We did a large scale geothermal and spent the money up front because we knew it made sense in the business sense in the environmental sense and sustainability,” Morrow said. “We have insulated metal panels on walls and roof; we are an envelope from the exterior.” Daldrop, as a global player, has a strong culture of sustainability that is found in all its products including the new facility. The building has been designed with (sixteen) 400-foot deep geothermal wells, high efficiency construction methods, approximately 70 kilowatt solar photovoltaic panels, electric vehicle chargers and 26% recycled content. “Daldrop thinks of long-term investing,” Sullivan said. “On the roof, photovoltaic panels supplement our power. Over half the energy that I use is coming from the sun. We have chargers up front for employee electric vehicles. This place is built to last. This slab that we are walking on, normal buildings are four inches, some go to six inches, we are nine inches all the way through — except where the heavy equipment is — that is 10 to 12 inches thick, solid concrete. It allows us to reconfigure for whatever type of equipment we want to bring in,” Morrow said. “We are authorized by Underwriters Laboratory to self-certify so we don’t need to have an inspector come out and recertify. We get audited often, but we certify our own electronics. The control system in this building is rather high-end. Our thermostat in every room is zoned, independent. We analyze the data; incorporate it with our solar panels.” “There is a lot of competition for people to work. It’s not just about how much salary they are going to make — it’s about the work environment, the ability for stability. We want to make sure our employees have the best environment to work in,” Morrow added. Similarities “One of the reasons I believe why Daldrop chose this area, Phoenix in particular, is because it is a village, a river-based village. Neckartailfingen in Germany where Daldrop is based is also a river-based village, manufacturing community. So, there is a lot of similarities — that smalltown feel,” Morrow said. “We have a lot of connections through multiple employees that lead back to Carrier, also. Everything came together, the timing everything.” “We are thankful for all the economic development support. Everyone has been helping make this happen. So, keep it up, it is working, that is all I got to say, Sullivan said. “If you look at historical industrial manufacturing, this region has skills that have been un-utilized. The northern industrial region has a lot of skills that if we can tap before they go away, we can leverage them. That is what we are trying to do. You’d be surprised at the supply chain left behind from Carrier — that supply chain is still there.” “Operation Oswego County has been fantastic,” Morrow added. “I can’t say enough good things about that group.” What Is Cleanroom Technology Cleanroom technology is a system of specialized engineering, filtration and operational controls used to maintain an extremely low concentration of airborne particles, microbes and chemical vapors. How It Works • Air Filtration: Uses HEPA or ULPA filters to remove 99.97% of tiny particles down to 0.3 microns. • Airflow Control: Directs air in a steady, unidirectional (laminar) or filtered turbulent pattern to push dust away from work areas. • Environmental Regulation: Maintains precise control over temperature, humidity and positive air pressure to block outside air leaks. • Specialized Attire: Requires personnel to wear full-body garments (“bunny suits”), gloves and masks to stop human shedding
N. Syracuse Manufacturer Marks Milestone, Plans for the Future
Air Innovations has grown from a small local manufacturer into a global business, selling its products in 74 countries organizations. Some of its clients include NASA, Blue Origin and SpaceX. By Stefan Yablonski [caption id=attachment_11117 align=alignright width=450] Michael Wetzel, president and CEO, and his father, Larry, who currently is an adviser to the board of directors. Larry served as the chairman of the board until 2024, when the company was acquired by Altus Capital Partners, a private equity firm.[/caption] Air Innovations in North Syracuse hopes to add more employees and possibly even expand its facility in the near future. The company is a global leader in designing and building environmental process control systems for applications that can’t be addressed with standard HVAC equipment, according to Michael Wetzel, president and CEO. “We customize solutions for temperature, humidity, filtration and pressurization, with additional capabilities in direct-expansion, chilled-water and thermoelectric technologies. Our business now is entirely focused on specialty or niche markets.” Air Innovations celebrated its 40th anniversary on Sept. 18, marking four decades of doing business, manufacturing products and growing in Central New York. In the beginning [caption id=attachment_11138 align=alignright width=451] A worker, Ezzy Salehi, tests a Wine Guardian condenser unit at Air Innovations.[/caption] “A guy by the name of Jim Kelley started the business [known as Floratech] in 1986. It was focused on refrigerated display cases for supermarket fresh flowers,” Wetzel said. “My father [Larry] started Clean Room Technology in the early 1980s, then sold that to a French company called Clestra Cleanroom. “My father and I bought Floratech in 1996 — 30 years ago, 10 years after it was started. Then in 1999, Floratech bought a portion of Clestra and their building. At that point everything was still called Floratech. But, as that was not reflective of the diversity of the business, we rebranded as Air Innovations in 2001.” The company rebranded to pursue a strategy of diversification in specialty HVAC systems. Wetzel explained that since then, it has become a trusted global partner, earning the President’s “E” Award for Exports and securing contracts in the most demanding fields, including aerospace, defense and semiconductor manufacturing. Air Innovations has grown from a small local manufacturer into a global business, selling nearly 70,000 units in 74 countries and territories and developing custom environmental control systems for companies and organizations including NASA, Blue Origin and SpaceX. “We work with all the big names you ever heard of and some you never heard of,” Wetzel added. The Wetzels sold the business two years ago to Altus Capital Partners, a private equity firm focused on control investments in lower middle-market, niche manufacturing companies in North America. Founded in 2003, Altus Capital Partners’ headquarters is in Wilton, Connecticut, with an additional office in Lincolnshire, Illinois. “They are an equity firm. Both my father and I both maintain a small minority share. I am going to continue to be involved. I call myself a part-time CEO. I will continue that role for the foreseeable future; I don’t see any change there.” Building to the future “We are at 58 employees right now, which is a little bit down. We had a high of 70. That moves along with the activity we have,” Wetzel said. “We’ll start ramping up here in the fourth quarter into next year. More than 20% of our employees have been with the company for more than a decade. “I am fairly certain that sometime in the next several years we are going to have to enlarge the footprint of our facility and for sure we are going to have to add employees. We already are. We are probably going to have to add five or six people next year. We are always in the market for HVAC technicians; we always need those.” Air Innovations will remain in Central New York, with its current workforce staying in place, he added. “I believe the primary driver of our success over time is the diversity of our business which is a direct result of our willingness to tackle new challenges,” Wetzel said.
Climate change is putting Europe’s brain health at risk
Rising temperatures, poor air quality and the spread of infectious diseases could increase the burden of neurological disorders, with the most vulnerable communities facing the greatest risks.
Climate change is putting Europe’s brain health at risk
Rising temperatures, poor air quality and the spread of infectious diseases could increase the burden of neurological disorders, with the most vulnerable communities facing the greatest risks.
Apple Launches 'Apple Home Collection' With Cameras, Lock, Thermostats and More
Apple today debuted the "Apple Home Collection," an accessory lineup it developed with LG Electronics and Schneider Electric. The collection includes cameras, thermostats, temperature sensors, and a door lock. All of the home devices are designed to work with the HomeView, Apple's new home hub. Apple says each one is made from premium materials with a minimal aesthetic.
Mapping the genetic diversity of Antarctic life
Antarctica is home to organisms that have evolved to survive months of darkness, frigid temperatures and some of the harshest conditions on Earth. Hidden within their genetic material are clues to how life adapts and persists in extreme environments.
When climate change brings the heat, what happens to a mighty redwood?
In heat wave-like temperatures, coast redwoods' photosynthesis slows down, which may put one of Earth's most efficient carbon storers in jeopardy.
'Staff are scared and exhausted' Concerns raised by Health Department after resident died at Hopkinton assisted living residence
After a resident died in a 99-degree room at the assisted living facility, documents obtained by 5 Investigates show temperatures nearing 90 degrees in several areas of the building.
EU leads fight against fossil-fuel nations’ push to delay climate science reports
Dispute looms over next review of the latest science on the warming planet as temperatures continue to rise
Leak Details iPhone Features for Apple's LG Home Accessories
Smart home accessories that Apple reportedly helped LG develop could offer iPhone proximity controls and a way to begin setup before the devices have power, according to findings shared by the leaker known as "pdfu". The findings concern the upcoming LG-branded accessory range that Bloomberg revealed earlier this week. The lineup reportedly includes a thermostat, temperature sensor, deadbolt lock, wired video doorbell, and several security cameras.
China's Chang'e-6 Mission To The Moon Brought Puzzling Samples Of Cubic Iron Back With It
It is the first time this phase of iron has been found in lunar samples. Usually, it would only be stable at temperatures between 912 and 1,394 degrees Celsius (1,674 to 2,541 degrees Fahrenheit).
The radical idea that temperature sets when we sleep
Some scientists think that temperature could be just as important as light at training the body's circadian clocks.
We Now Have Images Of The Smart Home Products That Apple And LG Are Reportedly Cooking Up
These include a lock, a thermostat and a temperature sensor.
LG Making Doorbell, Lock, and Cameras for Apple's Home Hub
Apple is working with LG Electronics on smart home accessories that will integrate with the upcoming home hub and other Apple home products, reports Bloomberg. LG is making a wired video doorbell, thermostat, smart deadbolt lock, temperature sensor, indoor security camera, outdoor security camera, and floodlight camera, according to documents LG submitted to the Federal Communications Commission and UL Solutions.
San Diego Tijuana International Jazz Festival sizzled in SoCal
SAN DIEGO — With a record-setting temperature of 103 degrees, things heated up fast on Saturday in Escondido before a single note was played on the third day of the
Global Heat Forum seeks to galvanize action and investment
BANGKOK – The first Global Heat Forum opened today to unlock finance and supercharge solutions on extreme heat, amid record-breaking temperatures and an intensifying El Niño. The four-day event in Bangkok takes place as the Thai capital recovers from devastating rainfall and deadly floods.
New Editorial Calls for Investing in Hospital Nursing Workforce to Address Health Impacts of Extreme Heat
Hospitals should make nurse staffing and supportive nurse work environments a core part of extreme heat emergency preparedness, according to a new editorial from Penn Nursing’s Center for Health Outcomes and Policy Research (CHOPR), as record-breaking temperatures and heat-related emergency department visits continue to rise across the United States. The editorial appears in Public Health Nursing.
10 cool and cozy books for fall - Entertainment
Temperatures are cool, the couch is cozy, and the season’s greatest reads are calling your name. Here are 10 books to curl up with this fall.
Collaborating with Canadian Scientists on Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal Research
I first met Dr. Helen Gurney-Smith in fall 2024, when Dr. Shannon Meseck and I drove just beyond the U.S.-Canada border to the St. Andrews Biological Station in New Brunswick. We went there to study larval sea scallop respiration when exposed to near-future temperature and pH. This past winter, Dr.
TempraMed Announces VIVI Cap Smart Connectivity with Apple Health and Google Fit, Providing Better Health Outcomes and Data Tracking
VIVI Cap Smart transforms injectable medication protection into a connected health-data layer, enabling patients, caregivers and digital-health platforms to capture medication-use, temperature and adherence signals.Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - October 5, 2026) - TempraMed Technologies Ltd. (CSE: VIVI) (OTCQB: TMPTF) (FSE: 9DY) ("TempraMed" or the "Company"), a medical technology company transforming the storage, protection and management of temperature-sensitive medications, is pleased to
Science Snapshots: October 4, 2026
Three new science finds: forest fragmentation alters temperatures, black-hole jets illuminate pre-existing gas, and butterfly wing patterns confuse predators.
Scientists just made a superconductor stronger using “empty space”
Researchers have demonstrated that quantum fluctuations in supposedly empty space can strengthen superconductivity, raising the transition temperature of an ultrathin material by as much as 5.4%. The discovery opens the possibility of using specially engineered vacuum environments to control quantum materials without direct contact or external driving.
Purplish: ‘The Great Colorado Ballot-O-Rama’ Part II
In the second half of the Purplish live event, the temperature rises on reporters in the host seat as they try to make the many ballot questions more digestible.
Bills vs. Patriots weather looks nearly perfect Sunday
Sunny skies, temperatures in the 60s and light winds are forecast when the Bills host the Patriots Sunday in Orchard Park.
Scientists discover first type I superconductor that breaks time-reversal symmetry
Superconductors are materials that conduct electricity with no resistance and expel magnetic fields when cooled to ultralow temperatures. And depending on their quantum structure, they can also showcase ...
Santa Barbara County Health Department Issues Health Alert Due to Extreme Heat Warning
High temperatures anticipated for parts of Santa Barbara County.
New ‘fire amoeba’ could assist scientists in finding alien life
Previous research has shown that complex multicellular organisms could only reproduce in temperatures up to 140 degrees.
Scientists Found a Lifeform That Endures Hell—and It May Not Be Alone
There’s never been a eukaryotic organism that got out of these temperatures alive—until now.
Health inspectors find fruit flies, roaches, trapped mouse in Dearborn
Wayne County health inspectors found pests and temperature violations at several Dearborn restaurants recently.
Newly discovered iron minerals might hold primordial water from when Earth formed
Researchers may have found a missing link in how Earth's mantle gets wet: newly discovered iron minerals that can store water at the extremely high temperatures and pressures present near our planet's core.
How an obscure government code unlocks opportunity for businesses
What rhymes with "snakes" and helps the government classify economic activity? NAICS — or the North American Industry Classification System. These codes categorize every industry from artificial turf installation to zucchini farming. But they’re not exactly easy to get. Today we look at one business’ quest for a NAICS code and what makes them so valuable. Fact checking by Leyla Doss. Your Next Listen — How to take the temperature of the US consumer Connect with The Indicator — Sign up for The Indicator’s weekly newsletter! — Buy the Planet Money book — Find our socials, YouTube and more! — For sponsor-free episodes, subscribe to NPR+ Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. This show’s perks include sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.
Health Department shuts down Mililani eatery for food violations
The Hawaii Department of Health on Friday issued a red placard and immediately shut down Blazin Steaks at Mililani Shopping Center after inspectors found repeated failures to keep food at safe temperatures.
In defense of the mid-cute: Why forgettable rom-coms are perfect for our exhausted brains
Room temperature romantic comedies are dominating the genre. Is that such a bad thing?
‘Powerful and beautiful’: Here’s why we all need body fat
From releasing hormones to regulating our temperature, fat has myriad roles in the body. Here’s how much you need and why chasing extreme fat-loss goals is unhealthy.
‘Powerful and beautiful’: Here’s why we all need body fat
From releasing hormones to regulating our temperature, fat has myriad roles in the body. Here’s how much you need and why chasing extreme fat-loss goals is unhealthy.
Fall Into Good Health
As temperatures drop and routines begin to change, fall is a great time to take stock of your horse’s health and wellness needs. From nutrition and recovery to grooming, hoof care and forage, these products can help keep horses feeling their best through the changing season and into winter.
New formulation helps RNA vaccines withstand high temperatures
MIT researchers used artificial intelligence to create more stable, heat-resistant RNA vaccines.
[Science Bulletin] KERI develops direct carbon coating technology for substrates
Korea Electric Research Institute grows graphene and graphite thin films at room temperature while MSIT launches safety inspections for semiconductor labs
See ‘The Science of Autumn Foliage’
GROTON — As summer fades and cooler temperatures arrive, New England prepares for one of its most spectacular annual displays: the changing of the leaves.
Rosholt fourth-graders kick off yearlong NASA science program
Over the coming months, students will work in small groups called Crews to take surface temperature readings.
Scientists Reveal the Shocking Body Temperature That Kept T. rex Alive - Futura-Sciences
Breaking Free from the Cold-Blooded Stereotype For decades, dinosaurs have been compared to the reptiles and lizards we know today. People saw them as typical “cold-blooded” creatures—scientifically called ectotherms—whose body temperature depended almost entirely on the environment. That’s why you see lizards basking in the sun or hiding in the...
Join us for community science power hours this fall
With the leaves changing and temperatures dropping, it’s a great time of year to get out and explore nature! As we move through fall, we can watch many seasonal changes unfold. Earlier in the season, you can still find many flowers blooming and attracting pollinators. But as the weeks go by, many of these birds […]
Scientists warn record El Niño will bring deadly extreme heat
They predict that global land temperatures will be 2.1°F above normal in the coming months due to the current "Super El Niño" that began in June. The post Scientists warn record El Niño will bring dea...
This year's El Niño just broke a record months before it's expected to peak
Daily sea surface temperatures in the region where El Niño develops are more extreme than at any point in recorded history.
Japan switches on its first full-stack room-temperature quantum computer — and scientists plan to scale it up to 10,000 qubits
Japan's new quantum system, Shunkai, uses "optical tweezers" to trap and rearrange atoms, and will be available to researchers working on quantum error correction.
Penguins’ lineup battle temperature check
A lot can change quickly for the picture of building the NHL roster. Take a look at the last 48 hours, where Blake Lizotte was announced as being out on a week-to-week basis, and Ben Kindel got injured during the preseason game with a day-to-day designation. Add in more injuries to Ville Koivunen and Justin […]
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Cooler weather can hide dehydration risk, health expert says
Dropping temperatures may mask the body’s need for water.
Scientists hope studying the world's pristine reefs will help them heal others
Coral reefs are under threat right now, due to abnormally warm ocean temperatures. Scientists are studying some of the most pristine reefs in the world, in search of ways to help all reefs recover.
How extreme heat can affect your mental health
Extreme heat does more than cause physical harm. Experts explain how rising temperatures impact mental health.
Health experts urge vaccinations as respiratory illnesses begin to rise across Chicago area
As temperatures cool and children return to school, health experts say respiratory illnesses are beginning to increase across the Chicago area, prompting renewed calls for flu and COVID-19 vaccinations ahead of the fall and winter seasons.
Newfound 'fire amoeba from the Cascades' sets record for the hottest temperature complex life can survive at
The newly-described amoeba Incendiamoeba cascadensis can survive at a sweltering 145 degrees Fahrenheit.
NASA-Funded Research Finds Complex Life Defying Record Heat
NASA-supported scientists have discovered an organism that lives at extreme temperatures previously thought impossible for complex life. High temperatures can
This 'fire amoeba' pushes the limit of what's possible for complex life
Scientists have found a species they've named the fire amoeba, which is capable of reproducing at 145°F and continuing to move up to temperatures of 147°F — a record for complex eukaryotic life.
This Is An Amoeba Reproducing At 63°C, The Highest Temperature Ever Recorded For A Complex Cell
The appropriately named fire amoeba can live its entire life at a temperature hot enough to cook an egg.
More than 12,000 power transformers could face flood risk as warming rises
SCE plans temperature monitors for underground circuits, while the report urges agencies, utilities and communities to use climate data in planning.
Business owner: Virginia already wrote the data-center heat law. Now make it a condition.
Every data center is a furnace. Nearly all the electricity that goes in comes out as heat, and the newest liquid-cooled halls put it out as warm water, exactly the temperature a greenhouse wants in…
A 66-million-year-old tooth reveals T. rex was nearly as warm as a human
Chemical clues preserved inside fossilized T. rex teeth reveal that the dinosaur maintained a body temperature of about 97 degrees Fahrenheit, almost identical to humans. The finding provides direct evidence that the giant predator was warm-blooded, helping explain how it stayed active and survived in chilly environments as far north as Alaska.
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!
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What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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A ‘razor-thin’ victory for the centre-left is forecast but not certain, in a result that tests the temperature of European politics
Scientists Turn Common Plastic Waste Into Fuel Using Heated Salts
Common plastic waste could become fuel using heated salts instead of extreme temperatures. Plastic bags, cutting boards, and many other everyday products are made from a plastic that is notoriously difficult to reuse once it becomes waste. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have now found a way to break down this plastic and turn
Magic of science
Students take a fun science class in Wenling, East China’s Zhejiang Province, on September 13, 2026. Through intuitive and interesting experiments, abstract physical principles were turned into visible phenomena, allowing students to explore the mysteries of low-temperature science up close. Photo: VCG
French Scientists Create a New Form of Ice at Temperatures That Would Vaporize Steel
French researchers have created a new form of superionic ice at temperatures above 3,600°F, offering clues about Uranus and Neptune's magnetic fields.
Why Everything Scientists Thought About Fertilization Timing Was Just Proven Wrong - Futura-Sciences
What if Temperature Is the Real Key to Male Fertility? Did you ever stop and wonder why testicles are located outside the human body? Well, it’s not for the sake of making gym shorts more interesting. The real reason is that sperm cells aren’t fans of heat – they thrive...
Science Behind the Forecast: Wine grapes demand temperatures that are just right
Every week WAVE 3 meteorologist Tawana Andrew breaks down what we know and what we don't about the climate and weather here in Louisville.
Rodrigo’s inaugural Daisy Chain Fields music festival supported women-centered organizations
The weather in Irvine was unusual on Aug. 29. Temperatures rose to a beaming 95 degrees early in the day. Who wouldn’t want to stay indoors in that scorching condition? Fans coming to watch Olivia Rodrigo’s revolutionary Daisy Chain Fields music festival, that’s who. Tickets went live and sold out within the first half hour, […]
Awareness of Climate Change and Its Impact on Reproductive Health
Background and aim Climate change poses a serious threat and crisis to health globally, with reproductive and maternal health falling under the vulnerable group exposed to extreme temperature...
Weather forecast for Auburn's Week 2 game vs Southern Miss
Fans attending Saturday's game between Auburn and Southern Miss will be battling high temperatures and possibly a few rain drops.
SportsZone Game of the Week 3 Forecast
SIOUX CITY, Iowa (KCAU) — Sportzone Game of the Week 3 is forecast for partly cloudy skies, slightly warm temperatures, windy conditions, and maybe a stray storm. Week three of high school football is a big rivalry between Sioux City East and Bishop Heelan, taking place here at home in Sioux City, IA. Low 80s […]