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Trump post appearing to depict himself as Jesus sparks backlash from religious right
Evangelical and Catholic allies call the post “blasphemous” and urge its removal in a rare public break from a base that has largely stood by Trump.
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Rebrand And Recent Share Price Momentum
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has drawn investor attention after its recent rebranding from Cedar Fair, L.P. The newly named operator of amusement and water parks now reflects a unified identity across its North American properties. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. The share price has climbed to US$19.94, with a 7 day share price return of 11.52% and a 30 day share price return of 24.70%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.07% and 5 year total shareholder...
Xsolla Brings Accessibility, Social Impact, and Entertainment IP Licensing With Xsolla Agency to London Games Festival 2026
Xsolla, a global video game commerce company, today announced its presence at the London Games Festival 2026 (April 13–19), with activities spanning gaming a...
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
SCORE Offers Free Business Mentoring Sessions
Local entrepreneurs and small business owners in Pasadena have a valuable resource at their fingertips with the ongoing SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Sessions. These free and confidential appointments provide individuals with expert guidance on starting, running, or growing a small business, courtesy of SCORE, the nation’s largest network of volunteer business mentors. The sessions are designed to offer personalized advice and strategic insights from experienced professionals. SCORE, which stands for Service Corps of Retired Executives, is a non-profit organization and a key resource partner of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Its mission is to foster vibrant small business communities through dedicated mentoring and education. The organization comprises a network of seasoned business owners and executives who generously volunteer their time to support the next generation of entrepreneurs. As SCORE states, their mentoring is a “free, confidential service for anyone starting, running, or growing a U.S.-based small business.” These one-hour mentoring sessions are held every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at two branches of the Pasadena Public Library: the Lamanda Park Branch Library and the Santa Catalina Branch Library. Appointments can be conveniently reserved up to 14 days in advance, ensuring that individuals can schedule a time that best suits their needs. This recurring service underscores SCORE’s commitment to continuous support for the local business community, helping them to plan, launch, and grow successfully. Need to Know: The SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Session offers free business guidance. These one-hour appointments are available every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at the Pasadena Public Library’s Lamanda Park Branch (140 S Altadena Drive, Pasadena, CA 91107) and Santa Catalina Branch (999 E Washington Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91104). The service is free. For more information or to book an appointment, visit [https://www.score.org/].
How streaming platforms reignited the YA boom: TSITP to Heated Rivalry
Diverse storylines, coupled with the global reach of streaming platforms, have reignited an explosion of YA adaptations, and it's a race that isn’t slowing down.
FanDuel Sports Network, Cavaliers' local TV home, is gone. It's no surprise
FanDuel Sports Network ended locally with the close of the Cleveland Cavaliers' regular season. It's a sign of a more expensive viewing reality.
Apple Testing Four Smart Glasses Styles Made of High-End Materials
Apple is developing at least four different styles of smart glasses, and the company is betting that their superior design will set them apart from rival products, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman says that Apple's latest designs are made from a high-end material called acetate, which is "more durable and luxurious" than the standard plastic used by most existing brands.
A summer of classical music ‘for all’
The Aspen Music Festival and School celebrates its 77th year this summer. The season begins July 1 and ends Aug. 24 and includes over 200 performances.
Business Travel Market Expected to Reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.5%: Allied Market Research
Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "business travel Market by INDUSTRY (Government, Corporate), by SERVICE (Transportation, Food and Lodging, Recreation), by TRAVELER (Group, Solo): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031". According to the report the global business travel market, valued at USD 689.7 billion in 2021, is projected to reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 9.5% over the forecast period — more than tripling in size within a d
Key Test Looms for South Africa’s Coalition, New DA Leader Warns
The new leader of South Africa’s second-biggest political party expects the stability of the nation’s coalition government to be put to the test when its larger rival holds internal elections next year.
Washington Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports After Talks Collapse
The war in Iran has already strained supply chains and energy markets, and the US blockade threatens to destabilize global trade flows.
What it takes to build Coachella's most recognizable icon
INDIO, Calif. — Scroll through Instagram any time in April and you'll see a stream of photos that are instantly recognizable as being from the Coachella Valley Music and Arts
Winners and losers of NBA's regular-season finales: Bracket breaks nicely for Rockets and Cavaliers
The 2025-26 NBA regular season came to a close on Sunday
Liverpool, the Grand National and the rumbling discord around Merseyside’s biggest sporting day
Those in control of the most powerful sporting institutions stand accused of understanding the cost of everything but the value of nothing
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - Live Score
View the Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers game played on April 18, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
BIZNOTE: After almost a quarter-century, Avalon Glassworks looking for new ownership for their unique West Seattle business
By Tracy Record West Seattle Blog editor More change is on the way for the heart of the Luna Park mini-business district. Shannon Felix and Jon Felix are looking for new ownership for Avalon Glassworks, which they've owned for 23 of its 33 years at 2914 SW Avalon Way. Their one-of-a-kind business - West Seattle's only commercial ...
MSU Science Festival hosts STEAM Expo weekend
Michigan State University is holding its annual Science Festival throughout the month.
MSU Science Festival hosts STEAM Expo weekend
MSU Science Festival hosts STEAM Expo weekend
Is Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Swings?
If you are wondering whether Caesars Entertainment at US$26.88 is a bargain or a value trap, the key is understanding what you are really paying for today. The stock is up 1.3% over the last week and 14.1% year to date, but that sits alongside a 4.2% decline over the last month and longer term returns of 6.1% over 1 year, 38.2% over 3 years and 71.3% over 5 years. Those mixed returns sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on Caesars Entertainment as a major US gaming and hospitality...
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
Cavs score vs Wizards. Injury report, regular-season finale highlights
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards end the 2025-26 NBA regular season season with a matchup at Rocket Arena. The playoffs await the Cavs.
Coachella 2026: The story of the festival's Ferris wheel, La Grande XL
You've seen Coachella's Ferris wheel throughout your social media feeds. We talked to the operators about what it takes to put together La Grande XL.
Apple reportedly testing out four different styles for its smart glasses that will rival Meta Ray-Bans
Apple's smart glasses could be announced as early as this year, followed by a product release in 2027.
Apple Reportedly Testing AI Glasses in Several Frame Styles
Apple is also considering a camera setup with vertically oriented oval lenses with surrounding lights, Mark Gurman reports.
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards Celebrating Work on the London Stage
LONDON (AP) — The winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards handed out Sunday for achievement in London theater, opera and dance: New Musical: “Paddington The Musical” New Play: “Punch” New Entertainment or Comedy: “Oh, Mary!” Family Show: “The Boy at the Back of the Class” Revival: “All My Sons” Musical ...
CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Legal Clarity and Core Strengths Support the Bull Case
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the undervalued large cap stocks to buy. On March 25, UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo reiterated a Buy rating and $97 price target on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS). Caliendo said that CVS’s proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over insulin pricing could lift a major cloud that […]
It's music festival season. How to stay safe and healthy while enjoying the show
Music festival season is here, bringing outdoor fun, music and dancing | Talk 1370
It's music festival season. How to stay safe and healthy while enjoying the show
Music festival season is here, bringing outdoor fun, music and dancing | WWL
It's music festival season. How to stay safe and healthy while enjoying the show
Music festival season is here, bringing outdoor fun, music and dancing | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
St. Augustine food festival raises money for mental health and addiction services
Things to do in Cincinnati this week, April 13-19
If you're looking for the best events happening in Cincinnati, you're at the right place. Find your next concert, game, festival or family event.
👑 Muriqi cements Mallorca legacy with brace against Vallecano
There's a new name atop the goalscoring pantheon in the Balearic Islands after Kosovar star Vedat Muriqi continued his scintillating 2025/26 form against Rayo Vallecano. The 31-year-old Prizren-born t...
Duke hosting Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga on visit
Duke is set to host top portal prospect Flory Bidunga out of Kansas as he evaluates NBA Draft interest and potential landing spots.
A $1 million Picasso is due to be sold for just $116
For the price of a dinner in Paris, somebody will soon walk away with a Picasso valued at more than $1 million.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
Inside the $350 million missile silo that could become a data center
Tech firms are turning missile silos and abandoned mines into secure data centers as Americans flock to survival camps amid rising fears of world war.
Oldsmobile Almost Became Muscle Car Tyrants With A 32-Valve 455 V8
Oldsmobile almost stood above every other muscle car brand with a 32-valve 455 V8, which could have been the most powerful muscle car engine of the early 1970s.
Fighting for health care claim approvals
10 Vintage Plates That Are Worth a Small Fortune
Vintage dining ware from these 10 makers has become highly collectible, often selling for thousands. See which creators' pieces are most valuable today.
Mississippi reveals its full history for America's anniversary year, a contrast to federal efforts
America’s history is being seen through different lenses as the country celebrates its 250th anniversary | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
Country music star says UFOs chased her plane for hundreds of miles
She said the orbs followed her plane from Arkansas to Nashville.
📺 Sunday schedule (12): Brasileirão, derbies and crackers in Europe
Sunday (12) features big rivalries across Brazil and plenty of European football. Check the schedule and where to watch, and plan ahead!Brasileirão 🇧🇷11am - Athletico vs. Chapecoense: Premiere...
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Valuation Check As Options Volatility Climbs And Analyst Caution Grows
Recent trading in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) options has shown unusually high implied volatility. This points to expectations of sharp share price swings, while analyst sentiment on the stock and sector remains cautious. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. The latest share price of $9.36 sits against a 30 day share price return of 34.04% and a year to date share price return of 47.59%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 21.48% contrasts...
Things to do in Pensacola: Mullet Man Triathlon; Earth Day Pensacola
Seven days out is your guide to entertainment events, concerts, festivals and activities in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties this week.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
How The Narrative Is Shifting For Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) After Guidance Reset And Target Cuts
Flutter Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been reduced from US$207.44 to US$197.35, lowering the modeled upside by about 4.9%. That change aligns with more cautious research following weaker Q4 results and lower 2026 guidance. At the same time, analysts continue to discuss long term execution and valuation questions from both bullish and bearish perspectives. Read on to see how these revised targets fit into the evolving story and what to watch as new data emerges. Stay updated as the...
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
Arsenal Ratings vs. Bournemouth: Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz Drop Stinkers
Arsenal was second best all over the pitch on a dismal afternoon, who missed out on the opportunity to open up a 12 point gap over rivals Manchester City.
Alexander Ovechkin receives standing ovation from rival Penguins crowd in potential last game in Pittsburgh
Depleted Grizzlies wrap season against resting Rockets
The Houston Rockets finally had displayed signs of consistency that seemed to validate their standing as a contender in the West, with an eight-game winning streak confirming as much.
10 minutes backstage with David Lee Roth at Coachella
INDIO, Calif. — David Lee Roth popped out at the Coachella Valley and Arts Festival on Friday to sing Van Halen's classic "Jump" with Teddy Swims. After the show, we
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
Apple AI Glasses Will Rival Meta’s With Several Styles, Oval Cameras
Also: The latest on the foldable iPhone.
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
Local youth science fair winners to compete in Canada-wide fair next month
Hundreds of Grade 5-12 students gathered at the Olympic Oval on Saturday for the final day of the Calgary Youth Science Fair, which named 17 finalists, who will compete in the national fair next month...
U.S. Small Business Administration Offers Drought Disaster Loans for Colorado Businesses, Private Nonprofits, Homeowners, and Renters - by Carly Winchell
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) announced the availability of low-interest federal disaster loans for small businesses and private nonprofit
Assessing Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After A Steep Year To Date Share Price Slide
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has been drawing attention after a steep share price slide in the past 3 months, with the stock down about 53% year to date at a recent price of US$102.38. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. The recent 90 day share price return of 52.45% and 1 year total shareholder return of 55.83% both sit sharply in negative territory, suggesting momentum has been fading rather than building despite earlier gains in recent years. If this kind of reset has...
High school sports results for Saturday, April 11, 2026
SATURDAY’S RESULTS Baseball NON-SECTION Albert Gallatin 4, Steel Valley 0 Toronto, Ohio 20, Carrick 0 Softball WPIAL CLASS 5A Section 2 Kiski Area...
April 16 Vallejo-Vacaville Arts/Entertainment Source: Activities
April 16: The Drifting Cowboys, 6:30 p.m., Empress Marquee Club, 324 Virginia St., Vallejo. April 17: Rise Vallejo Ribbon Cutting Ceremony and Family Carnival, 11 a.m., Rise Vallejo Early Learning Center, 1450 Coronel Ave.,…
A Look At Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Valuation After New Impossible Foods Partnership
Partnership with Impossible Foods puts food trends in focus for MSGE stock Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) is in the spotlight after announcing a multiyear partnership with Impossible Foods that introduces a dedicated plant-based concession concept inside The Garden. The agreement ties Impossible Foods branding to New York Knicks and New York Rangers home games and expands plant-based menu options across concourses and premium areas, giving investors a fresh angle on how MSGE...
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Cavaliers conclude regular season vs. last-place Wizards
The playoff-bound Cleveland Cavaliers and last-place Washington Wizards are locked into their spots in the standings, leaving nothing tangible for either team to play for -- except pride -- in their regular season finale Sunday.
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
What the NC Azalea Festival Street Fair looked like in Wilmington
The N.C. Azalea Festival Street Fair in Wilmington featured live entertainment, a performing arts stage, children's activities and vendors.
It’s Time To Forget About The MacBook Air
Apple’s MacBook Neo has disrupted the PC laptop market while leaving the MacBook market relatively intact. Is there value in Tim Cook disrupting the MacBook Air?
Golden Knights have chance to clinch playoff berth against Avalanche
It has taken longer than anticipated for the Vegas Golden Knights to reach this point, but better late than never.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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