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Singapore emerging as neutral ground as AI firms navigate Sino-US rivalry
Singapore is transforming from East-West gateway to neutral ground for the AI sector, with Chinese startups hoping to operate beyond government reach while U.S. firms seek foreign talent without the headache of stricter visa regulations.
Pope condemns killing of protesters in Iran, reaffirms stance against war
Pope Leo on Thursday firmly condemned the killing of protesters in Iran, after President Donald Trump criticized the Catholic leader last week for not doing so while speaking out against
Pot firms rally after US reclassifies marijuana as less dangerous drug
Shares of cannabis firms surged on Thursday after the U.S. government moved to reclassify the Food and Drug Administration-approved and state-licensed marijuana as a less-dangerous drug.
Companies that monitor workers can use the data to train AI agents
More employers are monitoring what workers do on company devices, and firms such as Meta are using employee data to help train AI agents.
Is SBA moving the small business contracting goal posts?
The Small Business Administration wants to put a bigger focus on contracting with veterans-owned firms and efforts to root out fraud.
Trump upended health care. Lobbyists are raking it in.
New disclosures show health industry firms and trade groups are spending more than ever to influence Washington.
Health Dept. report on S.F. hospital stabbing confirms Mission Local reporting
San Francisco will direct $15 million to Health Department security after fatal hospital stabbing.
How U.S. marijuana reclassification could help cannabis companies
The reclassification would likely reshape the pot industry by lowering tax burdens and making it easier for firms to secure funding.
CBL Scholars Program Opens Pathways to Business Law Careers - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
First-year law students and 2026 CBL Scholars Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly gain mentorship connections with leading industry professionals as they prepare for careers in business law. Created by the UC Center for Business Law San Francisco (CBL), the CBL Scholars Program aims to develop the next generation of business law leaders, supported by contributions from individuals and corporate sponsors. The highly competitive program provides funding along with academic and professional mentorship to students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Scholars gain exposure to the Bay Area’s technology and venture capital ecosystems and access to UC Law SF’s broad network of senior legal professionals. Now in its sixth year, the CBL Scholars Program provides a scholarship and academic and professional mentorship to students entering the business law community from disadvantaged educational, economic, social, or physical backgrounds. The program is generously sponsored by the law firms Gunderson Dettmer and Goodwin Procter. Meet this year’s CBL Scholars: Deniz Masjedi, Alvaro Flores, and Tavia Pappaly. All three have secured summer associate positions at prestigious law firms. Deniz Masjedi: A Passion for Helping Founders Grow Companies Deniz Masjedi, who was born in Iran and moved to Southern California as a teenager, traces her interest in law to her family’s immigration journey and her desire to advocate for herself and her family. She earned a bachelor’s degree at UC Berkeley, where she studied political science and sociology. At UC Law SF, she serves as a 1L representative for the Iranian Law Students Association and is active in the Business Law Society and Technology & Law Society. Next fall, she will serve as director of mentorship for the Technology & Law Society and director of professional development for the Business Law Society. She will join Sidley Austin this year as a 1L/2L summer associate. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Prior to law school, I worked in Cooley LLP’s Private Companies practice group as a corporate paralegal for three years, supporting over 100 venture-backed startups and venture capital funds. I found purpose in helping founders transform their vision into successful companies. It was incredibly rewarding being part of their journeys—from company formation and initial financing to major transactions such as M&A deals. What excites me most about this field is the potential for a small, innovative company to become the next Google or Zoom, shaping how people communicate and access information. I hope to continue supporting entrepreneurs and investors as a corporate attorney. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: As the first person in my family to attend law school in the United States, receiving this scholarship is a tremendous honor. My parents and I left everything behind so that I could enjoy the freedom to practice my religion without persecution and pursue a career in law as a woman. This award is an acknowledgment of my dedication to business law and motivates me to continue pursuing excellence in this field. It also recognizes years of hard work—learning a new language, navigating the college and law school application process, and ultimately building a career in the legal profession. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship will provide access to mentorship from leaders in the field, enabling me to develop the skills necessary to offer practical advice and effective representation to future clients. It also eases the financial burden of law school, letting me focus on my coursework and deepen my commitment to corporate law. As an immigrant, breaking into the legal profession has not always been easy, and the time that mentors have invested in me has been instrumental to my progress. This scholarship will allow me to continue building those relationships while positioning me to one day mentor others pursuing similar paths. Alvaro Flores: Inspired by Entrepreneurs The son of Mexican immigrants raised in San Antonio, Texas, Alvaro Flores says he has long been interested in how policy, markets, and culture shape society. He studied international relations and global economy at the University of Southern California, with minors in business finance and legal studies. His experiences span local political organizing, venture capital and startup work, and teaching entrepreneurship. At UC Law SF, he is involved in the Business Law Society, Technology & Law Society, and the Latinx Law Student Association. He will join Perkins Coie as a 1L/2L summer associate with the firm’s Emerging Companies & Venture Capital practice. Q: What draws you to business law? A: I’m drawn to stories of entrepreneurs whose simple ideas become companies that shape the economy and society. Spending time in venture capital and working directly with founders has shown me that many important decisions in the scaling process are ultimately legal ones, particularly how companies are structured and how capital is raised. Business law sits at the intersection of innovation and equity. It offers a way to stay close to the pace of technological change while also helping expand who gets to participate in it. There is something special about being part of that process here in the Bay Area, where the American Dream feels like it is reimagined in real time. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: I am truly grateful for the support and belief this scholarship represents. I see it not just as recognition, but also as alignment. The CBL Scholars Program’s focus on developing individuals who engage deeply with the business and technology ecosystem reflects the path I have been intentionally building. More than anything, it feels like an investment in that journey. I have been thoughtful about each next step–whether teaching, working in venture capital, or building multidisciplinary experiences–and this scholarship reinforces that those efforts come together in a meaningful way. Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: It allows me to focus more on developing as a business lawyer, without the distraction of financial constraints. Beyond that, the mentorship and access to the Bay Area network are just as valuable. I’m especially interested in working with early-stage companies and investors, so the opportunity to learn directly from people operating at a high level in that space is huge. Tavia Pappaly: Working in the Wine Industry Sparked Interest in Business and Law Tavia Pappaly spent five years in the wine industry before deciding to pursue law school with a goal of becoming a corporate transactions attorney. Pappaly says she wants to use her legal skills to help business grow and thrive. A first-generation law student from Fairfield, California, she is a member of the Legal Education Opportunity Program (LEOP) and will serve as vice president of social planning for the UC Law SF Sports Law Society in her 2L year. She plans to work as a summer associate at Gibson Dunn in San Francisco after her 2L year. Q: What draws you to business law? A: Business law brings together many of my interests and personal experiences. As the daughter of immigrants who grew up around a family-owned small business, I saw firsthand both the opportunities and challenges of building something from the ground up. That perspective, combined with my experience in the wine industry, solidified my interest in helping businesses of all sizes tackle evolving legal challenges. I’m excited to grow within the corporate law space and develop the skills and experience to support businesses at every stage. I’m deeply motivated to give back to immigrant communities and small business owners, whose experiences often intersect. By building a strong foundation in corporate law, I hope to support those working to create generational stability and to contribute in a meaningful way to the communities that have shaped me. Q: What does it mean to you to have been awarded this scholarship? A: Receiving this scholarship is incredibly meaningful to me. I take great pride in my background as a first-generation student and a woman of color, so being recognized for my potential in a field that has historically underrepresented those communities is both affirming and empowering. This program will help connect me to the resources and committed mentors that will help me succeed. Beyond that, it is no secret that law school is a significant financial commitment. This scholarship helps ease both the financial burden and the stress that comes with it, allowing me to focus more on my education and long-term goals. I am incredibly grateful! Q: How will this scholarship help support your future goals? A: This scholarship has already connected me with an incredible network of faculty, business law professionals, and like-minded students. The community fostered by the Center for Business Law is deeply supportive, and I’m excited to grow alongside my cohort. I truly believe this network will play an important role in helping me thrive in law school and position me for success in business law. As I have seen firsthand how impactful both financial scholarship and mentorship are, I hope to give back in this same way later in my career.
How one disappointing order uncovered a massive ‘ghost cake’ delivery scandal in China
A customer’s complaint about a disappointing cake kicked off a massive investigation that uncovered thousands of “ghost” food vendors in China, resulting in staggering fines for some the country’s largest firms and highlighting the pitfalls of the cutthroat price competition.
Ottawa County Department of Health confirms first case of measles since 1991
For the first time since 1991, Ottawa County Department of Public Health has confirmed a case of measles.
5 Steps for Small Business Succession Planning
In this course on the ASI Learning Network, Jeannette Rhodunda of ASI discusses important moves small-businesses owners should make to prepare firms for their next phase.
Motorola confirms Razr (2026) launch date, new colors in ‘something new’ teaser
Motorola has teased its next-gen Razr phones enough already, but that won’t stop them from releasing a new teaser that...
Ubisoft confirms Assassin’s Creed: Black Flag remake reveal: ‘The iconic pirate adventure returns’
Assassin’s Creed: Black Flag Resynced will be revealed via a live stream this week…
FERC seeks $1.1 billion from Abram-led Durham energy firms
Regulators have fined Durham-based energy-efficiency business American Efficient $722 million, saying it’s behind “one of the largest and most brazen frauds” they’ve ever seen.
Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says
Twin reports from top accounting firms underline scale of economic threat as Iran war shatters business confidence
Cash shortages grip Yemen despite currency stabilisation
Cash-strapped Yemenis face rising frustration as exchange firms limit currency conversion amid ongoing liquidity crisis.
Department of Health confirms measles case in Rhode Island
TheRhode Island Department of Health said that a case of measles had been confimred in the state.
“Yeah… it’s not so good,” as Microsoft confirms major Rewards changes in May and what it means for anyone who relies on daily point earning
Microsoft Rewards is getting an update with new tiers, monthly bonuses, and expanded rollout, but early feedback suggests not everyone is convinced by the changes.
Microsoft confirms AI agents are still coming to the Windows 11 taskbar as it prepares for public rollout
Microsoft has clarified that it's not giving up on an agentic Windows 11 experience and is still bringing agents to your taskbar.
SF Department of Public Health confirms first clade I mpox case
The San Francisco Department of Public Health on Tuesday confirmed the first case of clade 1 mpox in a city resident.
INTEGRIS Health confirms layoffs, clinic closures
One of the largest healthcare providers in Oklahoma says it is preparing for cuts to its workforce and a number of clinics.On Friday, INTEGRIS Health officials
Dept. of Public Health confirms measles case in Midlands
The South Carolina Department of Public Health has confirmed a case of measles in Saluda County.Health officials say the infection is tied to international trav
Contingency plans in place for possible food shortages if Iran war continues, minister confirms
Peter Kyle did not dispute Times’ report that under a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ supermarkets might start running out of some items
AI firms rethink pricing, shift from users to work done
AI firms are altering software pricing models, moving from per user fees to work-based charges.
Source: LIV Golf operations "continue as scheduled," CEO reaffirms commitment to tour
As rumors swirl about the future of LIV Golf, the tour's CEO is attempting to reassure players and staff.
Lorenzo Lamas Confirms Heather Locklear Relationship
The 'Melrose Place' and 'Falcon Crest' actors, who rose to fame in the '80s and '90s, are officially dating.
New Sony PS6 Portable leak confirms one of the biggest features of handheld console
The handheld version of the Sony PlayStation 6, the PlayStation 6 Portable, is expected to launch alongside the main console. With an RDNA 5 GPU and a 6-core Zen 6 CPU, the PS6 Portable is shaping up to be a beastly handheld that will reportedly be able to play games that launched for previous consoles.
Anthropic draws offers from VCs to invest at up to $800 billion valuation, Business Insider reports
Anthropic has received multiple offers from venture capital firms valuing the Claude maker at as much as $800 billion in recent weeks, more than double its current valuation, Business Insider reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
You can order your own bloodwork now. Interpreting the results is another story
Firms like Function Health and Oura market regular blood tests to people wanting to take their health into their own hands. The process often raises more questions for patients than it can answer.
New Rules Hinder Foreign Firms From Moving Supply Chains From China
Multinationals in China are concerned that the regulations could allow authorities to penalize companies and executives for shifting supply chains away from the country.
Dick Vitale health update: College basketball analyst confirms melanoma diagnosis
ESPN college basketball analyst Dick Vitale shared another health update on Monday in which he announced he was diagnosed with melanoma.
Starmer confirms UK will not support US blockade of strait of Hormuz
PM says opening waterway is ‘vital’ as he rules out any UK involvement in US moves to blockade strait
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
Samsung Confirms Upgrade Offer—Galaxy Owners Must Now Decide
Millions of Samsung phones are vulnerable to attack — you must act now.
Exclusive: Intel Core Ultra 400 "Nova Lake-S" preliminary SKU list leaked: 6 to 52 cores, DDR5-8000 and forward socket compatibility
Intel Nova Lake-S leak confirms DDR5-8000, NPU6 and 175W desktop SKUs Recently we got a chance to look at updated Nova Lake-S roadmaps. You have already
Inside the $350 million missile silo that could become a data center
Tech firms are turning missile silos and abandoned mines into secure data centers as Americans flock to survival camps amid rising fears of world war.
Hackers Give Rockstar Games Until April 14 To Pay For Stolen Data
As Rockstar Games confirms hack, ShinyHunters hackers give the GTA developer just days to pay ransom for stolen data.
Finley: Trump's college sports order is an overreach
President's executive order on transfer portal, NIL has him meddling where he doesn't belong.
Samsung Confirms Bad Price News For Galaxy Phone Buyers
Samsung is raising prices for premium Galaxy phones that are months old. Bucking a long-held trend of smartphones dropping in price as they age.
Asha Bhosle health update: Granddaughter Zanai Bhosle confirms singer being treated for ‘extreme exhaustion, infection’
Asha Bhosle's granddaughter Zanai Bhosle confirmed on Saturday night that the legendary singer is hospitalised and is being treated at the Breach Candy Hospital
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Samsung Confirms Upgrade Offer—Galaxy Users Must Now Decide
Millions of Samsung phones are vulnerable to attack — you must act now.
King County confirms measles case in infant; exposure risk in Bellevue and Seattle low
Public Health – Seattle & King County is warning of potential measles exposures in Bellevue, northeast Seattle, and on public transit after confirming a case in
'Malcolm in the Middle' star Bryan Cranston speaks on stunts, bee stings
Bryan Cranston is looking back on 'Malcolm in the Middle' given the recent Hulu revival, and the comedy icon confirms he was shaved, painted and stung in the name of comedy.
Are you a ‘HENRY’? Why 90% of financial advisers will waive their minimums to get your business.
Most advisory firms’ $500,000 or $1 million thresholds are actually just branding tools. Here’s how to tell if you’re actually a good fit for their services.
Maricopa County confirms first heat-related death of 2026
Health officials have confirmed that a person has died from heat-related complications, the first in the Phoenix metro in 2026.
Baptist Health confirms Cigna contract termination, here’s what that means for patients
Certain Baptist Health patients are expected see a shift in insurance coverage after Cigna Healthcare terminated its agreement with the health system, set to take effect June 23, 2026.
Sports dealmaking drives legal hires
Private capital is flooding into sports and law firms are hiring to keep up.
Eddie Howe reaffirms ‘100 per cent’ commitment to Newcastle job
The head coach said he thinks he is "totally aligned" with the club's sporting director and CEO but cannot look beyond the next seven games.
Why we must invest to sustain Delaware life science firms
Delaware is the best place for life science innovation and investment to thrive. Our homegrown life science firms need sustained investment.
Crimson Desert Dev Confirms Boss Rematches, Hard Difficulty, Enemy Territory Recapture, and a Whole Lot More Is Coming Soon
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has outlined a number of significant changes coming to the game in the coming months, each addressing various community complaints that were highlighted recently. Here's everything you need to know.
China’s Huatai Is Seeking to Start Securities Business in Japan
Huatai Securities Co., one of China’s largest brokerages, is preparing to start a securities business in Japan as a revival in the country’s financial markets draws firms from around the world.
Elk Grove seeks to develop master plan for auto mall
A city request for proposals is looking for firms that can help develop a master plan for Elk Grove's auto mall and make it better.
US software stocks fall as Anthropic's new AI model revives disruption fears
U.S. software shares tumbled on Thursday after Anthropic held back the wide release of a powerful AI model over concerns it could expose hidden cybersecurity vulnerabilities, deepening investor fears about the threat to traditional software firms.
Scientists just found a hidden “drain” inside the human brain
A hidden waste-removal pathway in the brain has finally been caught in action. Using cutting-edge MRI scans, researchers discovered that fluid flows along the middle meningeal artery in a slow, lymphatic-like pattern—very different from blood. This confirms the presence of a previously unknown drainage hub in humans. The finding could transform how scientists approach brain aging, injury, and diseases like Alzheimer’s.
Strait of Hormuz traffic still stalled despite US-Iran ceasefire
Movements are dominated by smaller, risk-tolerant operators, while mainstream oil majors and large global shipping firms remain absent.
iOS 26.4.1 enables Stolen Device Protection by default for enterprise
Apple confirms that Stolen Device Protection will be enabled by default for enterprise devices updating from iOS 26.4 to iOS 26.4.1.
Secretly Distribution acquires music data and analytics firms Entertainment Intelligence and Babel Ops
Babel Ops was founded in 2020 by Erik Gilbert and Greg Delaney, who previously co-founded Entertainment Intelligence in 2014.
Africa CDC Secures Over US$300 Million to Advance Africa’s Global Health Security Agenda at the Lyon One Health Summit in Lyon (France)
Lyon / Addis Ababa / Brussels, 8 April 2026 – The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) welcomes the outcomes of the One Health Summit held in Lyon, France, that affirms a decisive shift: Africa is no longer at the margins of global health—it is shaping its future. Africa CDC expresses its […]
Africa CDC Secures Over US$250 Million to Advance Africa’s Global Health Security Agenda at the Lyon One Health Summit in Lyon (France)
Lyon / Addis Ababa / Brussels, 8 April 2026 – The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) welcomes the outcomes of the One Health Summit held in Lyon, France, that affirms a decisive shift: Africa is no longer at the margins of global health—it is shaping its future. Africa CDC expresses its […]
Cold hard truths on climate change
These data-driven firms are turning atmospheric chaos into actionable intelligence:
Microsoft explains why it still can’t fully kill Control Panel in Windows 11
Microsoft is phasing out the Control Panel in Windows 11 in favor of the Settings app, but the transition is careful due to old drivers.
Sacramento County confirms 2 additional measles cases
Both children are 'in isolation and recovering,' county health officials said.
Businesses scramble to get noticed by AI search
Firms are changing the way they present information on their websites, so they get noticed by AI.
Biotech layoffs return: Mass. life science firms cut 745 jobs in Q1
Biotech job cuts return: 14 companies cut 745 jobs in Q1
NYC business leader warns exodus is brewing over Zohran Mamdani's tax hike crusade: 'Exploring options'
Apple Confirms Its Impressive MacBook Pro Offer
The MacBook Pro M5 has an impressive discount in the Apple Store.
Big Banks Seeking a Piece of SpaceX’s I.P.O. Must Subscribe to Elon Musk’s Grok
Mr. Musk is requiring Wall Street firms to purchase subscriptions to his A.I. chatbot if they want to advise on one of the largest initial public offerings in history.
WHO’s head of emergencies reaffirms support to Lebanon’s health system amid escalating needs
Lebanon’s health system continues to function despite the mounting pressures of conflict, displacement and repeated attacks on health care – but without urgent action and sustained international support, access to essential health services is increasingly at risk.
Palumbo family business secrets revealed in settlement agreement with IDOT
It turns out there were more connections than previously known between Sebastian "Sam" Palumbo, his construction firms and a road-building group overseen by relatives known as Builders Companies. But the firms insist those ties didn't violate Palumbo's agreement not to participate in state or federal contracts following a 1999 guilty plea in a racketeering case.
McKinsey's new AI leadership playbook: flatten teams and move faster
McKinsey and other consulting firms are using AI to streamline management structures — what some call The Great Flattening.
Clock is ticking on law's billable hour, says Cleary Gottlieb lawyer
For decades, elite corporate law firms have relied on the billable hour to fuel profits. Can the model survive the age of AI?
Slay The Spire 2 Dev Confirms New Character, Modes Are Coming
Mega Crit's Casey Yano revealed some fresh new info on Slay the Spire 2's early access roadmap, alongside the team's reaction to its success
Science confirms torpedo bat works as well as regular bat
Lab tests show the much-hyped torpedo bat offers no real power advantage over traditional designs, with only a slight shift in the sweet spot that may suit certain hitters.
Fernando Mendoza's pro day confirms his QB1 status for 2026: Here's how he stacks up to past top QB prospects
Size, arm talent and composure were on display in a pro day that confirmed his status as the next No. 1 overall pick.
Rams' Puka Nacua reportedly enters holistic care facility to 'focus on personal growth' amid off-field concerns, lawyer confirms
PlayStation Plus Confirms Free Game Line-Up For April
Some great games lined up for this month!
Russian governor orders firms to select workers to join military
The order, signed by Ryazan's governor, instructs companies to select two to five workers who might be candidates for contract military service.
Sentiment improves among Japan's big firms, but Iran war clouds outlook
Business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved in the three months to March, according to a closely watched survey released on Wednesday, a sign that increasing economic uncertainty from the Middle East conflict has yet to hit morale.
Oregon CB confirms various pre-draft meetings with Raiders
A University of Oregon cornerback recently confirmed multiple pre-draft meetings with the Las Vegas Raiders.
NFL confirms TMRW Sports partnership for new flag football league
Ariel Investments, Silver Lake and Sixth Street are among the institutional investors backing the project.
White House reaffirms support for surgeon general pick after Trump remarks
After President Trump said Sunday that “we have a lot of great candidates” when asked about Casey Means’s nomination, the White House reiterated its support for her.
More leaked images show the biggest iPhone 18 design change in greater details
Another iPhone 18 leak confirms Apple’s biggest design change this year.
It Never Ends: Eidos Montreal Confirms Mass Layoffs Including Veteran Studio Head
Deus Ex in absentia
NFL confirms flag football partnership with Tiger Woods' TMRW Sports, backed by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Serena Williams
Op-Ed | Fueling NYC’s $50 billion engine: How women business owners can grow and scale
Over the last decade, the number of women-owned firms in NYC has grown by 43%, becoming a powerful force in the city’s economic momentum. Over the past
Eurozone Business Confidence Falls on Iran War
Confidence among firms and consumers tumbled in March as the war in Iran dealt a fresh blow to already fragile sentiment.
Health care jobs growth is stagnating at the biggest for-profit firms
Major health insurers are trimming jobs, and Medicaid cuts could soon force hospitals to lay off workers.
German firms trapped between U.S. and China, study finds
German companies are so deeply tied to both the United States and China that they cannot decouple from either without severe economic costs, according to a study by the University of Sussex and King's College London seen by Reuters on Monday.
Ad firms, contractors and nonprofits from south Louisiana win national, regional recognition
Here are some of the recent awards and special recognitions received by leaders at south Louisiana businesses and nonprofit groups.
BBB outlines steps for choosing a cleaning service: compare firms, interview, verify
Homeowners and business operators looking to hire cleaning services should take several steps to ensure they choose a reputable and reliable provider.
Microsoft confirms it retired “This is an Xbox” campaign because it “didn’t feel like Xbox”
Microsoft retires "This is an Xbox" campaign It looks like Microsoft is finally changing. Microsoft has confirmed that its "This is an Xbox"
Stocks tumble, Dow confirms correction territory, as Middle East tensions drag
U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday, with each of the three major indexes closing at their lowest levels in over seven months and the Dow confirming it was in correction territory
Microsoft Issues Statement On Why 'This Is An Xbox' Campaign Has Been Retired
MS spokesperson confirms it's been nixed by the new Xbox boss
Maryland Small Business Will Appeal After District Court Affirms Department of Labor Courts That Hand Down Ruinous Fines
WASHINGTON—The Institute for Justice (IJ) will appeal on behalf of C.S. Lawn & Landscaping, a Maryland small business owned by Chuck Saine, after a federal […]
Intel officially confirms Core Ultra 9 290K Plus will not be released
Core Ultra 9 290K Plus officially scrapped As we have exclusively revealed in early February, Intel has canceled its plans to launch the 24-core Core