SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " Prima " 2,968 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Trump defends his economic policies in Michigan
Trump's visit comes ahead of Michigan's Aug. 4 primary and as early voting is underway
Trump defends his economic policies in Michigan
Trump's visit comes ahead of Michigan's Aug. 4 primary and as early voting is underway
Republicans decry a new Democratic Socialists of America platform as Dem primaries split the party
A new platform from the progressive Democratic Socialists of America is sparking Republican attacks.
Family Medicine Physician Charles Jones, M.D., Joins UAMS Health Family Medical Center in Helena-West Helena
Charles Jones, M.D., has joined the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS) Family Medical Center in Helena-West Helena, where he will offer primary care for all ages.
Maryland candidates should hear from small businesses
Opinion: Maryland candidates should speak to small business owners to learn what they can do to improve the state’s business climate, writes Mike O’Halloran.
Florida politics recap: Governor's race heats up as property-tax fight heads to court
With less than a month remaining before Florida's Aug. 18 primary, the race for governor briefly skipped ahead to November this week.
Whole Hog Politics: Ready or not, 2028 field is taking shape
Democrats not only can’t decide the order for their 2028 primary calendar, but they also can’t even agree on when the decision should be made. Is it better to have certainty for the states and potential presidential...
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Dakota’s state primary runoff
South Dakota Republicans will decide in a primary runoff Tuesday whether to nominate Gov. Larry Rhoden for a full term or to instead tap businessman Toby Doeden to represent the party on the ballot in November.
A Colorado history lesson for Victor Marx
Victor Marx, who narrowly won the Republican nomination for governor by one half 1% after boasting of a massive 44-point lead, is just as misguided on Colorado political history. During the primary, Marx made a clumsy attempt to denigrate his opponent, state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, as a “great candidate for the 1990s” whom he would […]
Political action committees swarm incumbents with donations
The two incumbent Tennessee lawmakers from Knox County who are facing primary challengers have PACs on their side.
Can a Progressive Win in a Purple State? Abdul El-Sayed Wants to Find Out.
Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary is a critical front in the fight between Democrats’ progressive and moderate flanks and a preview of the 2028 presidential primary.
Town Square looks to bring new health care model to Rochester
The primary care practice catering to seniors expects to begin accepting patients this month, and to open in September.
Black voters may decide the nation’s biggest Democratic primary. Many are clearly against the more progressive option
Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to deliver the Democratic Party’s progressive insurgency its biggest win yet in the Michigan Senate primary. But he is running into resistance among Black voters, many of whom say the establishment he eschews has delivered for them in important ways.
Beyond the nasty ads, there are key differences between Craig and Flanagan
With the DFL U.S. Senate primary is around two weeks away, Flanagan and Craig have been exchanging critiques in ads, but those ads have not gotten too deep into where they differ on several key policies
Darline Graham Joined the Senate and Began Her Campaign All Before Burying Her Brother Lindsey
Appointed to finish late brother Lindsey Graham’s term, the South Carolina senator now faces a competitive primary to keep the seat.
Money in Ann Arbor politics: Where does it come from, and where does it go?
Pre-election campaign finance statements for candidates of the Aug. 4 Ann Arbor mayoral and City Council primaries were due Friday. The statements report all campaign contributions and expenditures — from five-figure donations, to a $3.99 purchase of water made by mayoral candidate Yousef Rabhi’s campaign. Collectively, candidates for mayor and City Council have raised more […]
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Recapping the primary with Chuck Coughlin
Independent consultant Chuck Coughlin gives us a brutally honest breakdown of the primary elections and why some of the candidates shouldn’t have run in the first place. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the current state of the Suns.
Politics Unplugged (Full Episode) July 26, 2026
Tonight on Politics Unplugged, the primary elections have come and gone. Who won? Who lost? And what are the key match-ups to watch in the fall? The panel is putting in the extra work to break it all down now on Politics Unplugged.
Health Policy Watch: African Union pushes for greater domestic spending on health amid reports of huge disruptions to HIV and TB services
The African Union held a special health summit on 21-22 July, primarily aimed at mobilising high-level political support for more domestic health spending.
New York Democrats face a generational reckoning
Left-leaning young voters are dominating Democratic primaries, forcing longtime incumbents to shift.
Simone Biles undergoes procedure weeks after June health scare
The seven-time Olympic gold medallist shared a photo in scrubs alongside husband Jonathan Owens but didn't disclose details of the procedure.
Michigan, Missouri primaries will again lay bare the Democratic divide over Israel
Fiercely fought primaries on August 4 in Michigan and Missouri will provide the next crucial tests in the debate over American policy toward Israel that has convulsed the Democratic Party this year.
Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary sets up a battle of generations
Rep. Seth Moulton, a frequent critic of the old guard of Democratic leadership in Congress, is now taking on one of his party’s progressive stalwarts.
ELECTION 2026 | Texas politics: Here are 5 top-of-ballot candidates' stances on law enforcement
FORT WORTH, Texas -- Five candidates vying for three top-of-ballot offices made their appeal to law enforcement officers from over 200 counties on Tuesday at the annual Sheriffs Association of Texas conference in Fort Worth.
PILOT applications not necessarily reserved for primary sector businesses
Grand Forks city and county attorneys say state Century Code doesn't limit who can apply for PILOTs, while the state tax commissioner's office says PILOT applications are a local decision.
NYC sends letters to property owners who could be subject to pied-à-terre tax
The second home tax would apply to properties assessed at $5 million or more owned by non-primary city residents.
Surprise candidate Shimon Blau cleared to face off against Melat Kiros in November
Unaffiliated congressional candidate Shimon Blau, a Denver doctor, has qualified by petition for the general election in Colorado’s 1st District, where Democrat Melat Kiros defeated 15-term U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in last month’s primary, the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said Friday. Blau, a newcomer to politics, submitted just shy of 2,000 valid signatures on […]
Unaffiliated candidate Shimon Blau will face Melat Kiros in congressional race
Unaffiliated congressional candidate Shimon Blau, a Denver doctor, has qualified by petition for the general election in Colorado’s 1st District, where Democrat Melat Kiros defeated 15-term U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in last month’s primary, the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said Friday. Blau, a newcomer to politics, submitted just shy of 2,000 valid signatures on […]
Democrats reshape their primary calendar: From the Politics Desk
Plus, 100 days out from the midterms, Republicans feel the pressure on the Iran war.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorses Haley Stevens in Democratic US Senate primary
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate over progressive Abdul El-Sayed
Democrats select South Carolina for first presidential nominating contest in '28
The decision most likely cements a Democratic primary calendar that moves away from Iowa and New Hampshire in favor of more racially diverse states
Primary voters rejected big money in politics
While we’re in an election campaign lull between now and Labor Day, we have time to consider the impact of $102 million in campaign contributions in the primary. In the general election, more money will fill candidate campaign coffers, and from the looks of things, ballot initiatives will get plenty of attention as well. The […]
DNC committee sets up South Carolina to vote first in Democrats’ 2028 presidential primaries
Key Democrats had pushed for the state as a signal of Black voters’ importance, especially after the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act.
South Carolina picked by DNC panel to lead off Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary
South Carolina is poised to remain the first Democratic presidential primary state after securing a key panel’s recommendation, a move that will maintain Black voters’ prominent position on the calendar.
Orlando Health Health Central Hospital becomes West Orange County’s first resuscitation center
Orlando Health Central Hospital is West Orange County's first Primary Florida Resuscitation Center, excelling in cardiac care.
Small Business, Childcare And Safety: State House District 14 Candidate Q&As
The seat has three Democratic candidates on the primary ballot.
Simone Biles brings mental health message to Chicago's Faces of Fitness this weekend
The seven-time Olympic gold medallist was announced as a headliner of the sold-out Chicago event, where she will speak about the importance of prioritising mental health.
'Trump Democrats' turf up for grabs as 3 chase open Macomb House seat
Less than two weeks before Michigan's Aug. 4 primary, there is no frontrunner in the Democratic race for an open suburban Detroit U.S. House seat.
Trump to travel to Michigan ahead of swing state's primary election
President Donald Trump is set to rally in Michigan next week as early in-person voting begins in the battleground state’s primary, where voters will choose nominees for open Senate and governor’s races.
WATCH: Cory Mills blasts DOJ probe as ‘political op' ahead of Florida primary
Cory Mills claims the reported DOJ investigation is a political attack by his opponents weeks before Florida's Republican primary on Aug. 18.
Nearly 150,000 mail ballots rejected in California' primary despite efforts to count every vote
Nearly 150,000 voters have had their mail-in ballots rejected for California’s June primary election, a sharp spike from previous primaries
Democratic Voters Keep Defying the Party Establishment
The House Democratic campaign arm has stepped up its interventions in high-profile contested primaries. But this week, it suffered its third primary defeat in two months.
SEE IT: Mills denies alleged DOJ investigation, claims political opponent is behind it
Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., is denying allegations from a source familiar to Fox News that the Justice Department is investigating him, claiming a Florida Republican primary opponent is behind it. (Credit: Nicholas Ballasy for Fox News Digital)
New poll complicates Vance’s status as Trump’s likely 2028 heir apparent
Marco Rubio surged from 7% to 26% in New Hampshire's latest GOP primary poll, dramatically closing the gap with JD Vance in the hypothetical 2028 presidential nomination race.
Amish Shah wins Democratic congressional primary in Arizona, a blow to the party establishment
Shah won the Democratic primary Wednesday in a hotly contested congressional district in Arizona, delivering another defeat to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which backed a rival, as more voters reject the preferences of party leaders in Washington.
Americans — including many Republicans — are losing faith in capitalism, polling shows
President Donald Trump has indicated that his main strategy for the 2026 midterm elections is to call Democrats “socialists” and even “communists” at every turn. And there is evidence that democratic socialism is gaining somewhat more of a foothold in recent Democratic primaries.
With 18 months until the primaries, Democrats are about to make a huge decision about 2028
Colorado’s primary proved in this political climate money doesn’t buy electoral happiness
To catch you up, campaign committees from this 2026 election cycle already collected and shoveled out a lot of cash: $102.64 million. That’s contributions in all forms — dollars, in kind, loans, etc. — from December 2024 to now. Total expenditures just for advertising amount to $32.94 million. More to come for the general election. […]
Geekbench 7 Launches With Redesigned Multi-Core and GPU Benchmarks
Primate Labs today announced the launch of Geekbench 7, the newest version of the popular benchmarking suite for CPU and GPU performance. There's a redesigned multi-core benchmark in Geekbench 7 that's meant to better represent how applications work in the real world. A workload only runs in multi-threaded mode if the task it models runs multi-threaded in real applications.
Question 3 would switch Mass. to a jungle primary. Dems are split
The referendum, which Secretary of State Bill Galvin on Tuesday officially certified as Question 3, would switch Massachusetts elections to what’s known as a jungle primary,
Amish Shah Wins Democratic Primary in Swing Arizona House District
Dr. Amish Shah, who beat the choice of the party’s House campaign arm, will face Jay Feely, a Republican, in a battleground district that covers parts of Phoenix.
Democrats zero in on Nevada and South Carolina to kick off 2028 presidential primary calendar
Nevada and South Carolina are the leading contenders to be recommended to head Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary calendar, according to conversations with members of a powerful panel within the Democratic National Committee.
Hong leads latest Marquette Poll, large percentage of voters still undecided
A new poll reflecting the rapid changes in the Democratic primary will be released next week.
Colby Parkinson’s late-season surge can carry over into 2026
Parkinson enjoyed a strong finish to the 2025 season with primary starter Tyler Higbee sidelined
Science Corporation's vision-restoring chip wins EU approval
"The thing that the space needs is a company making $100 million a year of revenue," Science Corp. CEO Max Hodak said.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to front of NH 2028 Dem primary field
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY,, now leads the 2028 Democratic primary field in New Hampshire, while Marco Rubio closes in on JD Vance.
Former NFL player, funded by league notables including Roger Goodell, wins Arizona GOP Congressional Primary
Jay Feely won an Arizona Republican primary for Congress after getting major NFL backing from Roger Goodell, multiple team owners, and former players.
Commonwealth Games 2026 sports list: What's included and what's not
The Commonwealth Games 2026 in Glasgow features a total of 16 sports - 10 able-bodied and six integrated para sports. Indian athletes will compete in 13 at the CWG.
NC legislators target Kannapolis in latest batch of partisan election changes
The change, which also includes Albemarle and a collection of municipalities in Moore County, follows a trend of similar bills in recent years.
Science Corporation Launches PRIMA in Europe Following CE Mark for Vision-Restoring Retinal Implant
Key Takeaways Science Corporation has commercially launched the PRIMA retinal implant in Europe after receiving CE mark approval, enabling avail
Democrats call for unity, support for Jackson, ahead of Saturday convention
While Jackson is the presumptive nominee, David Costello — who finished third in the June primary won by Platner — and Saundra Pelletier, the CEO of a women’s health company, also qualified to compete at Saturday’s convention.
Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms
As midterm campaigning heats up, both major political parties face unexpected challenges
Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms
As midterm campaigning heats up, both major political parties face unexpected challenges.
Science Corp. launches Prima vison-restoring BCI implant in Europe
Science Corporation announced the European commercial launch of its Prima brain-computer interface (BCI) implant for vision restoration.
A crucial governor’s primary just became Democrats’ biggest debacle
How the Wisconsin governor’s race became a tire fire for Democrats.
Trump ally pledges to ‘work with people’ he disagrees with after Arizona primary win
Andy Biggs – a hard-right congressman endorsed by Donald Trump – won the Republican nomination for Arizona governor
Michigan Auto Engineer Marries Progressivism and Business Sense
Don Ufford is running in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District Democratic primary next month against two fellow progressives.
Trump-backed candidates, 2020 election deniers, win Arizona primaries
The primaries set the field for what are expected to be heated contests for Congress and governor in a swing state this fall.
6 Takeaways From Arizona’s Tense, Trump-Dominated Primaries
Republicans nominated a former N.F.L. kicker in a top House battleground, a Trump loyalist for governor and an election denier for the state’s top election post.
Trump flexes GOP muscle in Arizona primaries as Dems dodge far-left upset
Arizona’s primaries put Trump’s GOP influence on display and set the stage for high-stakes governor and House races in November.
Political analyst on candidates in special GOP primary election for US Senate
FOX Carolina's Justin Dougherty speaks with political analyst Nate Luepp on campaign challenges for many candidates.
Live results: Trump-backed Rep. Andy Biggs will win Arizona gubernatorial primary, CNN projects
Rep. Andy Biggs will win the Republican nomination for governor in Arizona, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, setting up a November clash with Democratic incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs in the battleground state.
Democrats could take initial vote on 2028 presidential primary calendar this week
Democrats could vote as early as this week on the order of their primary calendar for the 2028 presidential election, although the decision wouldn't be final until the full Democratic National Committee agrees.
Ape cuddles could prevent conflicts
Humans could learn from chimpanzees and bonobos, who turn to group members for physical comfort during tense moments.
Live results: Arizona primary election
See Arizona election results and maps for the 2026 primaries.
President Donald Trump to travel to Michigan ahead of swing state's primary election
President Donald Trump is expected to rally in Oakland County on Monday as early voting begins in Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary
President Donald Trump to travel to Michigan ahead of swing state's primary election
President Donald Trump is expected to rally in Oakland County on Monday as early voting begins in Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary | 830 WCCO
What to watch for in Arizona tonight: From the Politics Desk
Plus, an uncertain new phase of the Iran war.
Monkeys Understand Shapes in Almost the Same Way as Humans
Our geometric intuition, long considered something that sets us apart, seems to be shared with other primates.
Financial incentives, flexibility and safe living needed to retain remote health care workers
Appropriate housing and safety, adequate time off and financial incentives are among the key factors supporting primary health care workers in remote jobs across Australia, according to a new study by ...
Quest for research answers takes undergraduate student to Japan
Kaylin Lamaute has been spending the summer finding answers to her fascinations in materials science and engineering through the Adopting Sustainable Partnerships for Innovative Research Ecosystem (ASPIRE) program, an international initiative primarily driven by the Japan Science and Technology Agency.
Washington’s 3rd District could be among the most competitive House seats this fall
Nine candidates are running in the state’s August primary, but only two will emerge from that race to compete in November. It’s one of just 18 around the country that’s considered a toss-up.
Election live updates: Arizona Governor Hobbs’ GOP challenger on the ballot as voters hit the polls
Follow live coverage as Arizona voters pick their favorite candidates for midterms. Get the latest as primaries underway for governor, House districts, secretary of state and more.
How the Michigan Senate primary activated every bitter Democratic grudge
The ghosts of 2016, 2020, and 2024 have all come to Michigan.
New Super PAC with ties to Boston Mayor Wu draws rebuke from the senator she’s trying to defeat
A new Super PAC that appears to be aligned with Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has emerged ahead of the state primary, where two Wu-backed challengers are vying to expel the two senators Wu blames for killing her tax bill.
Democratic candidates discuss inclusive politics, bumpy primary campaign
The forum took place with just three weeks to go before the primary election and following a massive shakeup in the race last week.
Gainesville group discusses local politics, upcoming primary at brewery meeting
‘Gainesville Is for People’ reviewed a recent candidate forum and talked issues affecting the city
Gainesville group discusses local politics, upcoming primary at brewery meeting
‘Gainesville Is for People’ reviewed a recent candidate forum and talked issues affecting the city
Live Results: Arizona midterm primary elections
Arizona Republicans will choose a nominee in a state primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.
AI-generated political ad in St. Charles County raises deepfake questions ahead of primary election
With two weeks until Election Day, a fully AI-generated political ad targeting candidates in the St. Charles County executive race is drawing scrutiny over the role of deepfakes in local elections
Delaware Gov. Matt Meyer bans private equity purchases of hospitals, signs bills to improve health care access, affordabilit
Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend says his legislation phases in price caps on hospitals and strengthens primary care access.
Warren’s latest ‘kiss of death’ endorsement sparks mockery over disastrous political picks
Elizabeth Warren's endorsement of Abdul El Sayed in the Michigan Democratic primary sparks backlash over her track record with failed candidates.
Republicans defy Trump, jump into South Carolina Senate race despite his handpicked successor
Trump endorsed Darline Graham for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, but Ralph Norman and Russell Fry are jumping into the GOP primary race anyway.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Denver's DNC bid faces a deep-blue dilemma
Colorado's blue-state status — and recent progressive primary wins — may complicate the city's pitch.
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Arizona’s state primary
Arizona Republicans will choose a nominee in a state primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.
Beacon Hill lawmakers are mostly poised for a relaxing summer — excerpt in parts of Boston
Most House and Senate seats on Beacon Hill won't see competition in the Sept. 1 primary elections. But that's not the case in two Boston-area Senate districts.