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Dolphins, Jordyn Brooks agree to extension
The Dolphins locked up another core piece as they continue their roster rebuild.
The 2026 NBA All-Summer League Second Team:
The 2026 NBA All-Summer League Second Team:
Kendrick Perkins makes pitch for LeBron James to join ESPN
The Miami Heat? The Cleveland Cavaliers? The Philadelphia 76ers? The Golden State Warriors? Where will LeBron James land in NBA free agency? Kendrick Perkins has another idea altogether for the unrestricted free agent: ESPN. On Monday’s edition of NBA Today, the ESPN analyst and 2008 NBA champion made his pitch for James to join the…
Pittsburgh Steelers Insider Says Team Could Still Add Another Defender
It’s been an offseason of change for the Pittsburgh Steelers. While they haven’t been able to win a playoff game […]
Beyond the byline: Rediscovering the magic of pure sports fandom
How my experience at Fanatics Fest 2026 resurrected my inner child.
Giants Coaching Holdover Named Potential Breakout Candidate in 2026
John Harbaugh has a knack for developing elite coaching minds, and ironically one of the New York Giants' best is a guy who has been in the facility for years. Outside linebackers coach Charlie Bullen, who has spent the past two years coaching the Giants' edge unit, was named as an assistant coach to watch by The Athletic. Bullen was initially hired by since-fired head coach Brian Daboll, yet he survived the cultural purge from Harbaugh, who even added "run-game coordinator" to his title.
Cam Newton among ESPN layoffs after ‘First Take’ rise
Given his recent addition to the talent roster at ESPN and quick rise through the ranks at First Take, Cam Newton is one of the most surprising names to be let go in the latest round of layoffs at the company. Newton joins a list that includes NFL analyst Ryan Clark, MLB host and play-by-play man…
ESPN to reportedly lay off Tom Pelissero, Karl Ravech
Karl Ravech joined ESPN back in 1993.
Cleveland Cavaliers Get Shocking New Timeline on LeBron James Decision
Rich Paul has shut down reports that LeBron James is nearing a decision on his free agency, spelling bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The post Cleveland Cavaliers Get Shocking New Timeline on LeBron James Decision appeared first on HEAVY.
Ryan Clark addresses ESPN ouster in social media post
Ryan Clark took to social media on Tuesday to make his first comments since being laid off from ESPN on Monday.
iOS 26.6 Prepares Your iPhone for iOS 27
iOS 27 includes a rebuilt search architecture for Siri AI. As a result, iPhones running the iOS 27 beta go through a re-indexing process that can take many days to be completed, but iOS 26.6 should help to speed things up for users who skip the beta. iOS 26.6 "optimizes the Spotlight index to prepare for iOS 27," according to Apple's release notes for the update, which will likely be released next week.
The last 9 spots: Why Cowboys roster projections go wrong
How many roster spots do you think are truly up for grabs?
Jumbo Package: Alabama Basketball adds a 7-footer for 2026
You wanted big men? Nate Oats got a BIG man
Penguins face rebuild dilemma with ‘living legend’ Sidney Crosby
Josh Yohe questions Pittsburgh Penguins' veteran-heavy rebuild strategy.
Dodgers' Ohtani Scheduled for Bullpen Session This Weekend
The Los Angeles Dodgers are ramping up Shohei Ohtani to pitch again this weekend.
Behind the Science: Can IL-6 Improve Cardiovascular Risk Assessment? Findings From the CCC Study
Discover the socio-demographic impacts on cardiovascular mortality in our JACC webinar. Join experts as they share insights and strategies for better heart health.
Penguins tied to trade interest in Seattle Kraken center
The Pittsburgh Penguins are being tied in potential trade interest to a young center this offseason. The Athletic’s Josh Yohe reported Monday “two different sources in the Penguins’ organization” told him Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas is “intrigued” by Shane Wright. Yohe noted, however, “the asking price for Wright is, to put it lightly, substantial, […]
Ranking the NFC North LBs, DBs, and coaches
On our latest Detroit Lions podcast we rank the NFC North linebackers, defensive backs and coaches for the 2026 season.
Phillies news: Field of Dreams, trade deadline, Seth Halvorsen
The Phillies know what they need, can’t they acquire it?
Patriots training camp preview: O-Line seeks further improvement
Sizing up New England’s offensive line with summer practices approaching.
Wrigley Rooftop-View Case Raises Proximity Issue Across Sports
The Chicago Cubs playing games in an “open-air stadium” doesn’t “transform the view” from a neighboring rooftop into Cubs property, Wrigley View Rooftop and owner Aidan Dunican argue in a recent court filing. And if it did, other teams, leagues and sports organizers could allegedly demand payment from neighbors who currently watch for free. Wrigley …
Thirteen Dolphins draftees report; the most important is Chris Johnson
There are 13 Miami Dolphins draft picks reporting to training camp on Tuesday, July 21. Joe Schad says none is more important than CB Chris Johnson.
Thirteen Dolphins draftees report; the most important is Chris Johnson
There are 13 Miami Dolphins draft picks reporting to training camp on Tuesday, July 21. Joe Schad says none is more important than CB Chris Johnson.
Mitch McConnell’s Team Falls Silent as Security Detail Guards Hospital
The presence of police cars near McConnell’s D.C. hospital is fueling speculation about his health.
What kind of Trade Deadline will the Yankees have?
Will this be another crazy trade deadline, or will the Yankees ease back this time around?
The Bear’s Den, July 21, 2026
The Chicago Bears lists continue, so help yourself to a helping of them
San Francisco 49ers Players React To Christian McCaffrey’s Post
Christian McCaffrey is one of the best players in the NFL.The former Stanford star is coming off another incredible season for the San Francisco 49ers.He finished with 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns.49ers Players React To Christian McCaffrey’s PostMcCaffrey has nearly three million followers on Instagram.Earlier this week, he made a […] The post San Francisco 49ers Players React To Christian McCaffrey’s Post appeared first on HEAVY.
Yankees news: Trade Deadline previews
Domínguez, Jones headline Yanks trade chips; three changes the team can make now; Clarke Schmidt faces live hitters
IDP Prospects Flying Under The Radar
Steve Hungarter makes his debut with The Huddle and discusses five of his favorite undervalued IDP prospects.
International Courts Against the Defunding of Climate Science? Revisiting the ICJ’s Climate Change Advisory Opinion
Introduction The first eighteen months of the second Trump administration have witnessed a sustained assault on scientific infrastructures enabling understanding of anthropogenic climate change. This has taken the form of cuts to national science agencies; freezes and dramatic reductions in grants to universities; and attempts to dismantle observation arrays and crucial monitoring stations. It has […]
Maple Leafs Risk Nick Robertson Turning into Phil Kessel
The Toronto Maple Leafs risk Nick Robertson morphing into another much-maligned winger of yesteryear, Phil Kessel. The post Maple Leafs Risk Nick Robertson Turning into Phil Kessel appeared first on HEAVY.
Gainesville group discusses local politics, upcoming primary at brewery meeting
‘Gainesville Is for People’ reviewed a recent candidate forum and talked issues affecting the city
Michael Page Wants New UFC Contract
UFC welterweight and middleweight fighter Michael Page is hoping to get a new contract as he has just one fight left on his current deal.Page joined the UFC in 2o24 after spending the majority of his MMA career up to that point in Bellator MMA. When the UFC signed Page, it was looked at as […] The post Michael Page Wants New UFC Contract appeared first on HEAVY.
Bucs' Biggest Remaining Roster Issue Named Before Training Camp
Despite a revamped defense and high-powered backfield, Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes could hinge on a neglected tight end room currently lacking depth behind starter Cade Otton.
The Match That Made Me Fall in Love with Sunderland
A last-minute winner, a sea of red and white, and one unforgettable afternoon - how did a five-year-old's first match spark a lifelong love affair with Sunderland?
J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition
The Minnesota Vikings will use a QB competition between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray to determine their starter for the 2026 NFL season. Nonetheless, even with the competition ongoing, many expect Murray to emerge victorious.Murray is looking to show that he’s still a starting QB despite the Arizona Cardinals cutting ties with him this offseason. […] The post J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition appeared first on HEAVY.
Five reasons Lamar Jackson can reclaim the NFL MVP award
It isn't overreaching to expect Lamar Jackson to reach higher levels during the 2026 NFL season.
Aaron Rodgers shares family photos, appears to have mended fences with estranged parents, brother
Fan Favorite Takes on TUF Winner at UFC Paris
Nathaniel Wood is back in action on September 5 in Paris, France. The Englishman puts his four-fight winning streak on the line against The Ultimate Fighter season 32 winner Mairon Santos. Both fighters will meet in the featherweight division.Multiple sources have confirmed the booking to Heavy.com. While both Wood and Santos remain unranked in the […] The post Fan Favorite Takes on TUF Winner at UFC Paris appeared first on HEAVY.
Jose Caballero's "routine'' sparks Yankees-Pirates bench clearer
Pirates' reliever Dennis Santana's overreaction to Jose Caballero's habitual, but legal, stall tactics at the plate led to an eighth inning incident.
Twins All-Star Joe Ryan surrenders 6 home runs in start vs. Guardians, the AL's worst home-run hitting team
Seattle Seahawks Quietly Work Out 4.38-Speed CB Speedster
Seattle is taking a closer look at 4.38-speed cornerback De’Antre Prince as the Seahawks prepare to open another training-camp competition. The post Seattle Seahawks Quietly Work Out 4.38-Speed CB Speedster appeared first on HEAVY.
Bills’ ‘Nightmare’ Scenario Revealed That Could Derail Josh Allen’s Season
The Buffalo Bills made a big decision this offseason when they parted ways with head coach Sean McDermott and promoted Joe Brady to the new role.Buffalo struggled to reach the Super Bowl over the last six seasons, so it needed to take action to give the Bills and their fans a boost, which meant parting […] The post Bills’ ‘Nightmare’ Scenario Revealed That Could Derail Josh Allen’s Season appeared first on HEAVY.
Gainesville group discusses local politics, upcoming primary at brewery meeting
‘Gainesville Is for People’ reviewed a recent candidate forum and talked issues affecting the city
Tennessee QB battle takes center stage at SEC Media Days
Redshirt freshman George MacIntyre and true freshman Faizon Brandon are the frontrunners in the competition.
ESPN reportedly lays off analyst Ryan Clark during broadcast of 'NFL Live'
Comedy of Pirates errors on one play sparks explosive first inning for Yankees
Dodgers vs. Phillies game chat
Dodgers return to a park they last visited during that historic 2025 postseason campaign. Monday’s game info
New York Yankees Announce Anthony Volpe Decision Before Pirates Series
On Monday night, the New York Yankees will open up a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Bronx.They are coming off a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night (also at home).Anthony Volpe finished with one walk and one strikeout.New York Yankees Announce Anthony Volpe DecisionFor Monday’s game, the Yankees have […] The post New York Yankees Announce Anthony Volpe Decision Before Pirates Series appeared first on HEAVY.
Mets at Brewers, 7/20/26: Peralta vs Misiorowski
Luis Robert, Jr. returns to the lineup for the first time since April
Royals vs Giants July 20 Live Discussion
The AL Central basement-dwelling Royals have a chance to get some wins against a similarly-bad team.
Atlanta Braves Announce Notable Austin Riley Change Before Padres Series
The Atlanta Braves are set to begin a new series in MLB. They defeated the Texas Rangers in a three-game weekend set to ensure their NL East lead stays put at three games. Now, the Braves will take on the San Diego Padres for a four-game series (at home). Before the Padres series, Atlanta released […] The post Atlanta Braves Announce Notable Austin Riley Change Before Padres Series appeared first on HEAVY.
Kentucky Wildcats starting QB reveals what led him to Lexington
The Kentucky Wildcats were able to nab Kenny Minchey as their starting quarterback heading partially because of Will Stein's coaching group.
ESPN names two Texans players to 2026 All-Backup Team
The Houston Texans seem to have one of the more complete rosters entering 2026 among AFC contenders, so with a total staff, who would make the all-backup team this season?
Why ESPN reportedly fired NFL analyst Ryan Clark
Ryan Clark had been with ESPN for 11 years.
Concerning Carlos Alcaraz Injury Update Before US Open
Spain's Carlos Alcaraz is in no mood to rush his tennis comeback.
Why Brewers Should Reunite With Former Star
The Milwaukee Brewers need pitching help, and there is a familiar face out there who can provide it.
Steelers Backup QB Battle Makes Four-Quarterback Roster Idea Unlikely
One of the battles on display in Latrobe for the Pittsburgh Steelers will be the competition for the backup quarterback job. Mason Rudolph and Will Howard will compete for the role, with the loser likely receiving a ticket out of Pittsburgh, unless the Steelers decide to get creative and find a way to keep all of them. One local beat writer proposed that idea, and it’s something the Steelers have done before.
Braves Announce Signings of All 21 Draft Choices
The Atlanta Braves announce they have signed all 21 of their 2026 MLB Draft picks today.
Jalen Hurts Gets Reasonable Warning Before Eagles Training Camp
Like every year, there are plenty of NFL players with a lot on the line heading into the new season. For the Philadelphia Eagles, the quarterback Jalen Hurts might have more pressure than anybody. It’s nothing new for Hurts. Even months after he was named the Super Bowl MVP, the star quarterback went into the […] The post Jalen Hurts Gets Reasonable Warning Before Eagles Training Camp appeared first on HEAVY.
Texas football’s new indoor practice facility near completion
Texas football has a lot to look forward to. Not only does the program have one to two additional years of Arch Manning working under center, head coach Steve Sarkisian is also locked in for the long-haul thanks to a contract that likely keeps him at Texas until at least 2031. And for the next […]
What can fans expect from Steelers' 2026 NFL Draft class?
Here's a look at what fans can expect from the Pittsburgh Steelers' 2026 NFL Draft class.
I Wasn't Actually Trying to Fix Tommy Fleetwood's Hat
The hats were intentionally ridiculous. The conversation they started wasn't.
Cowboys countdown to kickoff: Top 100 iconic games
We countdown 100 days until kickoff with a series of the most iconic games in Cowboys history. Today is Day 55
‘Mercenary’ Cowboys Defender Called Logical Fit for Multiple Contenders
Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox called Cowboys edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney a logical fit for Patriots and Seahawks in free agency. The post ‘Mercenary’ Cowboys Defender Called Logical Fit for Multiple Contenders appeared first on HEAVY.
Penguins Interested in Using Connections to Land 44-Point Center
The Pittsburgh Penguins are interested in landing one of the top trade candidates in the market. It was recently revealed that the Seattle Kraken are moving on from Shane Wright this summer. Seattle previously drafted the center with the fourth-overall pick in the 2024 NHL draft. Despite lofty expectations, he regressed during the most recent […] The post Penguins Interested in Using Connections to Land 44-Point Center appeared first on HEAVY.
Power Rankings: Where Do Vikings Come In At?
That's higher than most power rankings for Minnesota.
Detroit Lions 2026 Player Profile: Derrick Barnes
One of Detroit’s most overlooked defenders is coming off the best season of his career. Don’t sleep on Derrick Barnes in 2026.
Browns fans expecting big things from Harold Fannin
Browns fans are expecting big things from their second-year tight end.
SEC going alone over CFP, Save College Sports Act isn't leverage, it's reality
Like it or not, SEC going it alone idea is gaining steam. League commissioner Greg Sankey made that point at the SEC Media Days.
Mets, Phillies announcers can’t believe mid-play sunglasses move
A pet peeve of many baseball viewers is when a defensive player has their sunglasses on their hat, rather than over their eyes, when the sun is out. And during Sunday’s game against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia Phillies rookie outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. did put on his sunglasses, but he…
Vote for the top Gaylord area sports photo of 2025-26
Check out the top photos of the 2025-26 high school sports seasons around Gaylord, vote for your top pick and let us know what we missed.
2027 SEC Media Day location and dates revealed
Fans still have to get through the 2026 edition of SEC Media Day, but we know where and when the 2027 version will take place.
NFL fans predict the NFC division winners
NFL fans pick the winners of each division in the NFC
Yankees Birthday of the Day: Red Kleinow
Kleinow was among the earliest Highlanders backstops and witness to one of the game’s most famous pitches.
ESPN re-signs Tim Tebow to multiyear extension
One of the most recognizable college football analysts on ESPN airwaves will remain with the Worldwide Leader for the foreseeable future. Former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow has signed a multiyear extension with ESPN to continue serving as a college football analyst on SEC Network, the network announced on Monday. Tebow will remain one of…
Android Auto is finally getting the Google Maps feature drivers have wanted
Google Maps on Android Auto gets a speedometer two years too late.
5 breakout candidates for the Patriots in 2026
Here are five breakout candidates to keep an eye on when the Patriots start training camp later this week.
Mariners News: Cal Raleigh, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson
Injury updates and more from around baseball.
Jaleel McLaughlin faces steep hill to crack Broncos roster
Jaleel McLaughlin had his production drop in 2025. Now you add another back to the mix and his status is iffy at best.
Reacts Results: The bandwagon doesn’t stop here
Somebody needs to get Tetairoa McMillan to run a Hooked on Phonics program for local youth
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
🏆 Y! Sports AM: Spain wins the World Cup
Spain's defense got the last laugh over Argentina's bag of magic tricks, as La Roja beat La Albiceleste, 1-0, to win their second World Cup title.