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Pirates Series Takeaways: Speedy Griffin, Offense By Committee
The Pirates (46-45) took two out of three against the Nationals in Washington, posting a 4-3 record through the first […] The post Pirates Series Takeaways: Speedy Griffin, Offense By Committee appeared first on Pittsburgh Baseball Now.
White House report brands Smithsonian leadership as radical activists who can’t be trusted
A White House report brands the leadership of the Smithsonian Institution, especially at the National Museum of American History, as radical activists who cannot be trusted.
White House Criticizes Smithsonian Museum for ‘Extreme Political Activism’
A scathing report released on the Fourth of July says the National Museum of American History downplays the role of the founders while emphasizing social justice.
Trump's administration won't seek new bids to repair the Reflecting Pool
Like President Donald Trump, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said he was 100% sure that vandals caused the damage to the century-old Reflecting Pool on the National Mall.
WATCH: Trump delivers keynote address at ‘Salute to America 250’ event on the National Mall
Speaking in Washington after storms prompted a roughly two-hour evacuation of the National Mall, Trump honored veterans, including several from World War II and one of the first Black officers to lead a Special Forces team in combat in Vietnam.
Sanchez scores twice and Courage top Reign 3-1
Sanchez moved past Kansas City's Temwa Chawinga with nine goals this season in the National Women's Soccer League.
Trump, in July 4 speech, says he ‘wasn’t treated that well’ despite American right to equal justice
President Trump on Saturday said in his Fourth of July speech on the National Mall that he “wasn’t treated that well” in a reference to his legal battles and felony conviction as …
Scientist who cleaned space toilet on work experience now leading Mars exploration teams
Claire Parfitt says her time at the National Space Centre in Leicester gave her a unique insight.
In Fourth of July Speech, Trump Celebrates America and Derides Foes
A centerpiece address for the nation’s 250th anniversary celebration devoted time to American history, but had all the hallmarks of a Trump rally.
Trump uses America’s 250 speech to honor military heroes and also push political agendas
President Trump concluded the semiquincentennial celebration by reflecting on the nation's history, honoring veterans and pushing his political agenda during his address at the Salute to America event. NBC News’ Ryan Nobles reports on key points from the president's speech.
Fireworks, heat, hot dogs and politics: America celebrates its 250th birthday
President Donald Trump plans to speak on the National Mall before what is being billed as a historically enormous fireworks show that will rain down over the nation's capital.
Celebrations for America’s 250th begin amid heat and political division
Despite sweltering heat, heavy security and brewing protests, thousands were expected to descend on the nation’s capital for the historic anniversary.
NASA's Hubble spots a stellar sparkler for the Fourth of July
NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has captured a spectacular red, white, and blue view of one of the Milky Way's oldest star clusters to celebrate the nation's 250th anniversary. Hidden within the ancient cluster are clues to how exploding stars helped transform the young universe into one capable of forming planets and, eventually, life.
America held a big birthday party — and a soccer extravaganza broke out
The game the rest of the world knows as football is teaching America something about itself on its 250th birthday and reminding foreigners that the nation is far more welcoming and complex than its bitter political caricature.
Freedom 250 Independence Day Entertainment
Freedom 250 presents events from the National Mall prior to the evening "Salute to America" program.
The Nationals scorch the Pirates with 5 home runs to push Bucs back under .500
WASHINGTON — The ball was flying on a scorching Friday in D.C. It didn’t seem to fly as far for the Pirates. The Washington Nationals hit five...
Oppressive Heat Alters Plans for 250th Celebrations in Washington
The 100-degree-plus heat that has enveloped the nation’s capital shut down the Great American State Fair until 5 p.m. on Friday.
Extreme heat bears down as America 250 celebrations ramp up
The Great American State Fair, on the National Mall in Washington, shut down in the early afternoon Friday due to the heat
Extreme heat bears down as America 250 celebrations ramp up
The Great American State Fair, on the National Mall in Washington, shut down in the early afternoon Friday due to the heat
The National Announces Hall of Fame Musical Artist To Autograph Lineup
The addition of Public Enemy to the 2026 National Sports Collectors Convention autograph lineup highlights the hobby's continued evolution, as music, movies, sports, and popular culture collectibles i...
The United States at 250: Who gets to tell a nation's story?
As the US marks 250 years of independence, debates over how the nation's history should be told have become part of the anniversary itself. President Donald Trump says America should tell a more patriotic story.
New Mexico residents push to save nearly 80-year-old Sunspot Solar Observatory as demolition nears
The National Science Foundation announced it would demolish New Mexico's Sunspot Solar Observatory after discovering a mercury leak.
What we know about Trump’s July Fourth fireworks event
President Donald Trump’s celebration for America’s 250th anniversary will culminate Saturday with a record-breaking fireworks show on the National Mall amid scorching temperatures and controversy over his efforts to put himself at the center of the commemoration.
Former NL MVP will continue his career, signs with Braves
The Atlanta Braves have made a veteran addition as they look to stay atop the National League playoff race, signing former National League MVP Andrew McCutchen to bolster their organizational outfield depth. McCutchen, who began the season with the Texas…
The business of America: Dallas taught the nation to think bigger
The city's embrace of entrepreneurship, growth and risk-taking powered the rise of Sun Belt capitalism.
Trump refashions America's 250th as a celebration of himself
Historians say the nation's 250th anniversary has become a politicized spectacle, a celebration of an imperial presidency.
BREAKING: Julian Nagelsmann steps down as Germany head coach
According to BILD, Julian Nagelsmann has stepped down as Germany head coach after three years in charge, following the national team’s disappointing Round of 32 exit at this summer’s World Cup, wh...
The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
AMERICA AT 250: COMPETING CELEBRATIONS REFLECT NATIONAL POLARIZATION, SAYS SMU POLITICS EXPERT
DALLAS (SMU) – As the nation marks its 250th anniversary with separate celebrations in Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles, SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson says the split reflects a deeper reality about modern America: the absence of a shared national narrative. Wilson argues that what should have been a unifying moment of national pride has instead become a symbol of the country's growing political polarization, with rival groups promoting fundamentally different visions of Amer
Heat Wave Politics: GOP Leaders Deride Calls to Conserve
With half of Americans under a major heat advisory, official warnings and response are colored by the nation’s deep political divide.
Buy, sell or stand pat? Sizing up the MLB trade deadline plans for the Nationals, Marlins, Blue Jays and more
Fox Sports rules analyst Mark Clattenburg: Folarin Balogun red card ‘shouldn’t have been a VAR intervention’
A delightful win for the USMNT on Wednesday night was overshadowed by a questionable red card on striker Folarin Balogun, immediately casting concern over the national team’s next match on Monday as Balogun serves a suspension. The second-half booking came after Balogun became tangled up with a Bosnian defender. In real time, the play did…
President Donald Trump to sit down for exclusive interview with CNBC: Live updates
Trump's interview comes as he prepares to celebrate the 250th birthday of the U.S. on July 4 with an event and fireworks on the National Mall in Washington.
Rockies' Top Prospect Ethan Holliday Lands Major Off-Field Opportunity
The Rockies' No. 1 prospect might not be playing on the field right now, but he is about to be in the national spotlight.
Colorado business confidence improves but still pessimistic
Halfway into the year, business confidence across Colorado has improved but is still negative, a new report found. The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a measurement of how business leaders across Colorado feel about the future of the national and state economy, increased by one point to a score of 43, according to a report released […]
Colorado business confidence improves but still pessimistic
Halfway into the year, business confidence across Colorado has improved but is still negative, a new report found. The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a measurement of how business leaders across Colorado feel about the future of the national and state economy, increased by one point to a score of 43, according to a report released […]
Colorado business confidence improves but still pessimistic
Halfway into the year, business confidence across Colorado has improved but is still negative, a new report found. The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a measurement of how business leaders across Colorado feel about the future of the national and state economy, increased by one point to a score of 43, according to a report released […]
Texas shows travel, tourism at Great American State Fair
Texas is one of the 40 states and territories with a pavilion right on the National Mall.
New Jersey Business Magazine Celebrates America's 250th Birthday, NJ's Contributions
This special July edition of New Jersey Business Magazine celebrates America’s 250th birthday with an array of feature stories highlighting the state’s top industries. The magazine, which is powered by NJBIA and is the Garden State’s longest standing business publication dating back to 1954, explores the historical significance of these industries and how they complement the nation’s semiquincentennial birthday. “We approached this issue as[...]
Donors were misled by Trump-backed Freedom 250, House Democrats allege
The lawmakers’ report alleges that Trump allies worked to divert funds away from America250, a bipartisan effort to mark the nation’s semiquincentennial.
CHAMP Initiative Combines Climate Science and Storytelling to Address Urban Heat
As summer temperatures climb, so does the risk of extreme heat—now recognized by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. In cities such as Camden, where buildings, pavement, and other infrastructure trap heat and create higher temperatures than surrounding areas, understanding the impacts of urban […]
ASU scientists unveil new methods to extract reliable truth from imperfect data
Scientists at Arizona State University are advancing how they interpret complex, imperfect data — challenging long-standing assumptions in fields ranging from imaging to cellular biology. In two papers published in Nature Communications and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team introduces fundamentally new approaches to solving “inverse problems,” where researchers work backward from noisy observations to uncover the underlying reality.
Kitchen workshops stress dairy’s role in health
Learn more about Kitchen workshops stress dairy’s role in health, News and College of Health Sciences. Texas Woman's University (TWU) is the nation's largest un
Poll: Most Americans think the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles
Most Americans believe the country has moved away from its founding principles as the nation prepares for its big 250th anniversary, a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds. Eighty-three percent of U.S. adults feel America has strayed from the ideals the country was founded on two-and-a-half centuries ago. Among them, close to half of Americans — 47% — say the U.S. has "moved far away" from these principles, joined by 36% who said America has “moved
Communism isn't taking over the US, despite what GOP says
The idea that some overhyped radical left is about to take over the nation is laughably false.
Trump’s Great American State Fair: Modest crowds, $23 turkey legs, MAHA and controversy
WASHINGTON – The Great American State Fair, a Freedom 250 centerpiece on the National Mall, has drawn modest crowds, Democratic state snubs and performer cancellations amid criticism that the celebration has taken on a pro-Trump political tone.
Supreme Court upholds transgender sports bans: What to know and what’s next
The Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld state bans on transgender students playing on girls sports teams, delivering another blockbuster setback to trans youth and their families in a decision that is likely to sustain similar laws in about half of the nation.
Supreme Court upholds transgender sports bans: What to know and what’s next
The Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld state bans on transgender students playing on girls sports teams, delivering another blockbuster setback to trans youth and their families in a decision that is likely to sustain similar laws in about half of the nation.
US Supreme Court to decide legality of state transgender sports bans
The U.S. Supreme Court is set on Tuesday to decide the legality of state laws in West Virginia and Idaho banning transgender student athletes from female sports teams at public schools including universities, a contentious issue enmeshed in the nation's culture wars.
Manuel Neuer sets new Germany World Cup record
Manuel Neuer made his 23rd start for Germany at a World Cup, setting a new record for the national team after surpassing Lothar Matthäus and Miroslav Klose (both 22 starts).Julian Nagelsmann named Ba...
College Football Analyst Calls Historic Program No Longer 'Relevant'
College football analyst Paul Finebaum didn't hold back on his thoughts on the University of Michigan and its football program. Michigan won the national championship for the 2023 season, but after the win, Jim Harbaugh went to the NFL, and the program was accused of stealing signs. The program ...
Booming Business: Texas Secures Top Spot for Climate Fourth Year Running
Texas was recognized as the Best Business Climate in the nation for the fourth year in a row by Business Facilities magazine in their 2026 Annual Rankings Report.
Unrivaled Sports to Host Inaugural Ripken National Championships Presented by DICK'S Sporting Goods at Cooperstown All Star Village
/PRNewswire/ -- Unrivaled Sports, the nation's leader in youth sports experiences, today announced the 2026 Ripken National Championships presented by DICK'S...
France Recorded 1,000 Excess Deaths During Heat Wave, Officials Say
First estimates published by the national health agency listed hundreds more deaths per day compared with the daily death rate in previous months.
Safety in the summer
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July is, on average, the hottest month of the year in the United States.
San Jose business collects relief supplies for Venezuela earthquakes victims
Several businesses in the Bay Area are coming together to collect relief supplies for Venezuela following the deadly twin earthquakes that struck the nation.
Video of Australian politician lamenting living standard figures lacks context
The leader of Australia's far-right One Nation party criticised the country's living standards in a June 2026 speech at the National Press Club, drawing praise from supporters who shared snippets of t...
Baylor teen health clinics provide free medical care, mental health services
According to the latest U.S. Census data, Texas leads the nation in the number of uninsured residents.
Trump ramps up attacks on Democrats as ‘godless Communists’ ahead of November’s midterms
President Donald Trump on Friday seized on the electoral success of several democratic socialist candidates to ramp up his attacks on the Democratic Party, claiming it was being taken over by “godless Communists” who pose an existential threat to the nation.
Barker reclaims title at National Road Championships
Megan Barker reclaims her British elite women's circuit race title as the second day of the National Road Championships produces its second Welsh winner.
MSU Vet Tech program awarded $150k NIFA-USDA grant
Morehead State University's nationally ranked veterinary technology program was recently awarded significant financial support to help it maintain its place as the #1 program of its kind in Kentucky. The National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), part of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), awarded MSU's vet tech program a $150,000 NIFA-USDA grant for equipment to support small and large veterinary technology education and workforce competency at MSU. Learn more about veterinary technology programs at MSU by emailing Staton at a.staton@moreheadstate.edu or calling 606-783-2328. Find out more about MSU's veterinary technology program by calling 606-783-2662.
Friday Morning Politics: As Goes New York...?
Lisa Kashinsky talks about the national implications of New York's Democratic primary results.
HHS Expands Secure Access to Health Records Through the TEFCA® Network, Announces Milestone of One Billion Health Records Exchanged
The Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT at HHS announced new steps to strengthen the Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement™ TEFCA®
Las Vegas group, school launch scholarship to expand access to skilled trades
The National Association of Women in Construction Las Vegas recently launched a new scholarship in partnership with trade school Quality Training Centers. The scholarship is intended to expose more...
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Small Creatures, Big Mission: NMHM Bugapalooza 2026 Connects Science and Military Readiness
Mosquitoes, ticks, flies, and pollinators drew a crowd at the National Museum of Health and Medicine's Bugapalooza on June 13. Nearly 400 visitors attended the annual event to explore the world of insects through hands-on activities, exhibits, and conversations with military and civilian experts.
Study analyzes youth sports and committing violence
The study used survey data on 3,849 adults who participated in the National Sports and Society Survey.
Study analyzes youth sports and committing violence
The study used survey data on 3,849 adults who participated in the National Sports and Society Survey.
Study analyzes youth sports and committing violence
The study used survey data on 3,849 adults who participated in the National Sports and Society Survey.
The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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