SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " Trust " 1,596 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Jim Cramer on Ventas: “I Think This Is Just a Fantastic Business”
Ventas, Inc. (NYSE:VTR) was among the stocks on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money radar as he discussed the recent sell-off in AI-related stocks. Cramer noted that the company recently reported a solid set of numbers, as he commented: Last night, we got results from Ventas, the healthcare-focused real estate investment trust that makes most of its […]
At the front lines of global health messaging: A conversation with WHO’s retired communications director | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
What does it take to craft and deliver clear, trusted public health messaging while navigating a rapidly evolving communications landscape?
UT Board of Trustees to review updated plan for massive Neyland Entertainment District, condo, parking project
Parents trust health care providers on safety and injury prevention, but few discuss firearms
Tennessee parents have consistently ranked community violence near the top of their list of concerns since questions related to violence and firearms were added to the annual Child Health Poll
Probing Science: Misconduct, Incentives and Trust
On April 27, Synapse: UCSF Student Voices presented the eighth annual Science Speaker Series with Charles Piller, a former staff writer for Synapse, now an investigative journalist for Science magazine.
Unwell man stabbed stranger after Kent NHS mental health failings
Kent and Medway Mental Health NHS Trust apologises after it is found the attack was preventable.
"We're doing the work required to win back fans across Windows and Xbox": Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says the company is making foundational changes to fix Windows 11 and Xbox
Satya Nadella has commented on recent announcements around Windows and Xbox that are working to rebuild trust and positive sentiment around its consumer offerings.
Trusted Science Communicators Share their Expertise at IMMUNOLOGY2026™
Attendees of IMMUNOLOGY2026™ learned how to make their science communication more effective, empathetic, and have a greater impact.
California's race for secretary of state shows partisan divide over how to count ballots
Shirley Weber says accuracy matters more than speed. Her GOP challenger says the delays undermine trust. It could take a month to certify June's results.
UA president to recommend new School of Data Science focused on artificial intelligence
A School of Data Science still needs approval from the UA system Board of Trustees.
The Gospel Coalition (TGC)
The Gospel Coalition supports the church by providing resources that are trusted and timely, winsome and wise, and centered on the gospel of Jesus Christ.
Volunteer Hospital Named Chamber's Large Business of the Year
We're trusted with the health and wellbeing of more than half a million people living across 9,000 square miles of West Tennessee.
Press dinner shooting conspiracy theories spread in era of fractured politics
Neither political party is immune to conspiracies in a time of intense distrust in government and media, experts say
Are Local Health Departments the Linchpin for Rebuilding Trust in Public Health?
Trust in public health dropped during COVID-19, but local health departments may be the linchpin to rebuilding confidence nationwide.
Predicting consequences of new hepatitis B vaccine recs
New data on public trust in science, AI and mental health, and other news from Morning Rounds
Better Business Bureau Announces Torch Award Recipients
Better Business Bureau of the Mahoning Valley will once again celebrate leaders and businesses that exemplify BBB standards for trust.
The Case for ‘Pothole Politics’ in Local Government
It’s about competence. To build residents’ trust, cities need to focus on delivering core services efficiently, setting measurable standards and meeting them consistently.
A global survey on trust, digital health literacy and health information quality
Nature Health - An online cross-sectional survey across 30 countries, including 31,000 adults, explores perceptions of quality health information, with respect to source type and inclusion of...
Elon Musk boosts New Yorker Sam Altman profile on X as trial kicks off
Elon Musk boosted Ronan Farrow's profile questioning Sam Altman's trustworthiness as the two tech titans face each other in court.
People trust vaccine scientists as much as other researchers, poll shows
Roughly seven in 10 people still trust vaccine researchers, a new poll finds. The number is in line with trust for other scientists
Silicon Valley mental health crisis team at risk of losing funding
People are seeking out Santa Clara County’s non-police mental health crisis team more than any other response program. But it's about to run out of money.
SPONSORED Why rebuilding trust in science matters more than ever
Scientific breakthroughs don't just advance knowledge — they create the tools, treatments and technologies that move society forward.
Scientists esteemed by public, with vaccine scientists seen as similar to scientists in general
An Annenberg Public Policy Center survey finds that nearly 7 in 10 Americans trust vaccine scientists a moderate or greater amount to act in the best interests of “people like you."
Essex mental health trust criticised for remote patient monitors
A former mental health patient says the use of cameras and sensors in her bedroom was "frightening".
Consignors, Alliance Entertainment Object to Diamond Trustee Borrowing
For Legal and Other Fees
Yearbook Advice vs. Seed Business Reality: “Never Change” Is an Awful Strategy
Seed companies can’t rely on “never change” thinking. To stay competitive, leaders must protect customer trust while evolving sales channels, pricing models, digital tools, agronomic insight, and product positioning. Intentional change helps seed businesses adapt to farmer expectations, build resilience, create differentiation, and keep growing in a fast-changing agricultural marketplace.
Healing Divides in the Eastern Mediterranean: How Health Systems Can Become Bridges to Peace in Conflict Zones
Health systems, if deliberately designed, can help rebuild trust in societies fractured by war in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Bennett, Lapid, and the bromance that could decide Israel's next election
On paper, Bennett and Lapid had no business being allied. However, the personal trust between them is the central campaign promise.
What is Windows K2? Inside Microsoft’s big plan to SAVE Windows 11 and win back trust from users.
Microsoft has restructured its Windows team to better position Windows 11 as a strong platform that people should want to use. Here's how it's going about that.
Norwalk home health aide stole $229K from vulnerable couple: Warrant
A trusted home health aide is accused of stealing about $229,000 from a vulnerable Norwalk couple through fake deals, wire transfers and personal spending.
Port: Is North Dakota still open for business?
Even generally popular projects can be waylaid by opposition from gadflies who sow discord into the fertile soil of our national mood of distrust.
CapitaLand India Trust 1Q 2026 Business Updates
April 24, 2026 -- Please refer to the attached presentation slides.AttachmentsAttachment 1 (PDF) (Size: 1,713,866 bytes)Release ID: 89189735If t...
Political science department to be renamed after former Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus
The Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Board of Trustees approved renaming the department of political science at the University of
UofL trustees approve creation of non-profit to generate more money for sports
It was a big day for the sports department at the University of Louisville.
Exclusive | DOJ Met With TV Station Executives as Part of Sports TV Probe
Justice Department officials met with broadcast-television station operators earlier this week as part of its antitrust investigation into the sports-media marketplace, according to people familiar with the matter.
Young voters squeezed by economy and distrust political systems in new poll
Roughly half of young Americans said they are affected by inflation, and 45% said they are struggling to make ends meet in new Harvard Youth Poll.
How Businesses Can Build Trust as Institutional Confidence Erodes
Business leaders discussed the significance of authenticity, action, and building common ground at the TIME100 Summit in New York City.
Using AI To Personalize Healthcare–Without Losing Patient Trust
In this week’s edition of InnovationRx, we look at the opportunities and challenges of using AI to personalize healthcare and speed up clinical trials, the future of genetic medicine, another big Lilly acquisition, and more.
AI needs a strong data fabric to deliver business value
A modern data fabric makes it possible to turn existing enterprise knowledge into a trusted foundation for AI.
70% of people believe at least one divisive health claim. Science needs a new playbook
Edelman’s 2026 Trust Barometer finds doubts about health recommendations are far from fringe — they're mainstream, global, and span education levels.
70% of people believe at least one divisive health claim. Science needs a new playbook
Edelman’s 2026 Trust Barometer finds doubts about health recommendations are far from fringe — they're mainstream, global, and span education levels.
The ‘groundbreaking’ case of the cyber experts who allegedly broke bad and worked with criminals
US companies in the retail, hospitality and medical sectors trusted Angelo Martino to negotiate with hackers who were trying to extort them. Instead, he made the extortion worse, federal prosecutors allege.
The politics of trust in science
Public confidence in scientific research is spread unevenly across the population
The politics of trust in science
Public confidence in scientific research is spread unevenly across the population
Responding to Today's Gaps for Tomorrow's Health Emergencies: 2026 Ready or Not Report
Join Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) for a Congressional Briefing and National Webinar on the latest information on public health emergency readiness and findings from TFAH’s upcoming report, Ready or Not 2026: Protecting the Public’s Health from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism – releasing May 7th. The past year alone saw the U.S. facing the most […]
Morocco debates electoral reform as key to restoring trust in politics |
Participants stressed that political participation, particularly among women and young people, remains a decisive factor in any successful democratic reform.
AI Isn’t The Threat
Americans are using AI even as they distrust it. For public health leaders, the bigger risk isn’t the technology—it’s failing to engage with it and shape how it’s used.
Lore of Armageddon Part 3
What is Ghazghkull Thraka up to, and who are his most trusted Bosses?
Trusted Care Home Health Distances Itself from CFO Arrest
Trusted Care Home Health acknowledges recent public attention surrounding the arrest of its chief financial officer.
Moss for ProMarket: How the Professionalization of College Sports Changed Who Wins
The new model in the United States of paying college student athletes emerged from a complex settlement in the 2025 House v. NCAA private antitrust class action. The settlement supercharged Division I schools’ incentives to fund high-revenue sports programs because they need to pay for millions of dollars in required revenue-sharing with their student athletes. The prospect […]
Health care leaders discuss opportunities to shape the future of health care delivery, access
AHA Board Immediate Past Chair Tina Freese Decker, president and CEO, Corewell Health, and Rob Allen, president and CEO, Intermountain Health, participated in a discussion moderated by Jim Skogsbergh, former chair of the AHA Board of Trustees, for a discussion about the opportunities and challenges facing health care leaders in today’s landscape.
How the Professionalization of College Sports Changed Who Wins
The House v. NCAA private antitrust settlement professionalized collegiate sports by requiring colleges and universities to compensate student athletes. The case has changed the economics of college sports, pushing schools to spend big to pay for top athletes to field teams that compete for championships. New research from the Progressive Policy Institute finds that although the new model has narrowed success to the top programs, the ability for schools to pay for success has now been mostly priced in, writes Diana L. Moss.
Lee Health: Bringing our mission to life for Southwest Florida
Grounded in our mission to be a trusted partner, empowering healthier lives through care and compassion, Lee Health continues to build ...
Skokie discusses hiking, expanding entertainment tax in early budget review
As Skokie staff and trustees meet this month to review their budget for fiscal year 2027, officials have recommended raising the local entertainment tax to fund a new ambulance and improvements to the village’s development services. The proposed tax hike, which trustees would have to approve by an ordinance separate from the budget, would raise […]
Can You Really Trust Your Sleep-Tracking Wearable?
As sleep-tracking wearables gain popularity, so does a critical question for consumers and patients alike: Can you actually trust the data on your screen?
How a little-known founder is trying to change Calif. politics — to the tune of $1 billion
You may not have heard of Maria Davidson, but tech investors like Joe Lonsdale and Garry Tan trust her with their political ambitions.
Best Meta Glasses (2026): Ray-Ban, Oakley, AR
Meta is unquestionably winning the face-wearable war. Can you trust the company? Maybe not. But these are some of the nicest glasses I've ever worn.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
Can I trust health advice from an AI chatbot?
Abi has had very mixed results when asking a chatbot for guidance about her health issues.
What’s in a Name? When It Comes to Family Business, Everything
A company’s name is a powerful asset that can build trust or damage reputation, making it essential to protect and manage it proactively.
The podcast bringing together MAHA and public health for hard conversations
“These sides aren't talking to each other. And there's a lot riding on it”: The hosts of “Why Should I Trust You?” on bringing together MAHA and public health.
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
Can we trust the science shaping our lives?
Improved methods for social and behavioral sciences research could help enhance public trust in science, says a new study that investigated the robustness of data analysis to understand whether it reliably ...
New study finds 12- to 17-year-olds willing to engage in democracy, but feel anxious, unheard, distrustful of politics
A major new U.K. study of 12- to 17-year-olds finds that, while most adolescents say they would vote and are interested in politics, their willingness to engage is linked to their anxiety about the future, ...
RFK Jr. will remake panel that determines which preventative services insurers must cover - Live Updates
The health secretary told the Ways and Means Committee he’s bringing on new members of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.
Only the champions might be happy with Minnesota’s student-athlete transfer system
Inside an imperfect system: Because the high school league is “not an investigative body,” athletic directors own the burden of enforcing Minnesota’s trust-based transfer process. Coaches are often caught in the middle, too.
Today’s Papers – Allegri’s frosty relationship with Milan, Yildiz’s knee problems
La Gazzetta dello SportRoma tension, Ranieri could even leaveGasp wants full trustInter, Bastoni takes a breakChivu changes; the defender is tired and will miss Cagliari.Devil of a nineJuve slow down,...
Live Nation found liable liable in antitrust trial
The Justice Department and 39 states sued Live Nation to split the entertainment giant from Ticketmaster, calling it an illegal monopoly.
Grok’s sexual deepfakes almost got it banned from Apple’s App Store. Almost.
The back-and-forth explains xAI’s confusing policy changes.
Virginia Tech lands a commitment from DL Xavier Perkins
Xavier Perkins trusted the feeling — and it led him to Blacksburg. The versatile defensive lineman out of Durham (N.C.) Jordan has committed to Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies a key piece in the trenches after a spring filled with visits and momentum shifts. “It came down to that feeling, and I felt it the […]
Americans ask AI for health care. Hospitals think the answer is more chatbots.
Do you trust AI chatbots for health advice? What about one in your patient portal?
B2BINPAY Rolls Out Partner Program With Direct Earnings on Referred Transaction Volume
SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador, April 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In B2B payments, new business often comes through trusted professional networks lo...
Victoria Li's senior project: Exploring how AI processes information
Knowing how chatbots turn input into output will help with reliability and trust in AI agents
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
How Commissioner Joe Neunder became a symbol of everything voters distrust in SWFL
Sarasota land deal raises ethics questions and fuels voter distrust
Students 2 Science names new members to board of trustees
Students 2 Science (S2S), a 501(c)(3) organization that inspires and empowers students, welcomed three new members to its board of trustees.
At 100 days, Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ and child care push
The mayor focused on child care and worker gains, arguing that basic services are key to rebuilding trust in government.
SF, California leaders blast Trump for firing Presidio board
State and local leaders condemned the decision to fire all six board members of the Presidio Trust, the federal agency that manages the historic national park.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
At a mahjong table in Iowa, a struggle over which party to trust
Women courted in key races weigh their choices — and whether the president’s policies have delivered for a working-class town hit by tariffs, war and rising costs.
Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change
Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.
Football fans are being taken for a ride by the NFL — the DOJ could stop that
Nobody should be surprised that the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL’s antitrust exemption — but it’s far from clear how this game will end.
‘I jumped at it’: Australia’s new CDC chief on trust, misinformation and never being surprised by a health threat
Zoe Wainer’s parents started the country’s first public abortion clinic. Now she is making history too, as the inaugural head of the Australian Centre for Disease Control
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Healthdaq: Recruitment platform used by health trusts targeted by cyber attackers
Hackers claim to have stolen hundreds of thousands of files containing personal data from the platform.
BAFTA apologizes again for racial slur scandal amid review results
BAFTA Board of Trustees says it is 'determined to learn from what happened' in the racial slur scandal that overshadowed its annual awards celebration in February.
Jury starts deliberating states’ claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
States argue Live Nation and Ticketmaster are driving up prices to see live music.
MSU transparency proposal for sports nonprofit gets pulled over dissent
The resolution would require that materials from any entity the university's administration created could be accessed by the public and the trustees.
WesternU College of Pharmacy’s Ray Symposium examines keys to regain trust in science
Dr. Aaron E. Carroll, President & CEO of AcademyHealth, presented “Science You Can Trust: Leading with Evidence in a Distrustful Time” at the 20th annual Ray Symposium at WesternU.
Jury starts deliberating states' claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
Jury deliberations have begun in a civil case pitting 34 states against the concert giant Live Nation Entertainment | 1080 WTIC NEWSTALK
Students 2 Science Names New Trustees to the Board
Students 2 Science (S2S), a New Jersey-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that inspires and empowers students with transformative STEM opportunities, is pleased to welcome three new members to its Board of Trustees.
Students 2 Science Names New Trustees to the Board
/PRNewswire/ -- Students 2 Science (S2S), a New Jersey-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that inspires and empowers students with transformative STEM...
CPUID site hijacked to serve malware instead of HWMonitor downloads
: Six-hour breach turned trusted links into a coin toss between legit tools and credential stealers
Major United Nations Report Faces Budget Woes Amid Trump’s Pull Back
Without US backing and more money being spent than brought in, the IPCC’s trust fund could run out by 2028.
Gen Z's political alienation drives rise in extremism
Gen Z’s pandemic scars, social-media isolation and disordered home life have eroded trust in the American social contract, increasing disaffection and political extremism.
Searching for Truth Inside Viktor Orban’s Media Machine
In Hungary, politics often splits along generational lines. The election result may hinge on how many voters still trust what they see on state television.
Live Nation antitrust trial nears end as lawyer for 34 states labels the concerts giant a monopolist
A lawyer for states suing Live Nation Entertainment has tried to convince a jury during an antitrust trial's closing arguments that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, are monopolizing...
GHD’s Adrienne Young named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“You have to learn to trust your own judgment and speak up around other technical experts. And it can be intimidating when you might be the youngest person on that project team.”
Summit State Bank’s Ken Wu named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“He was promoted into management because of his ability to guide others without ego, foster an environment of trust and accountability, and encourage learning and cross-training throughout the department.”
Sources: DOJ opens antitrust investigation of NFL over TV deals
The Justice Department has begun an investigation into whether the NFL has violated anticompetitive practices with their television contracts that require consumers to pay subscription costs to watch some games, sources confirmed to ABC News.