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Braves vs. Guardians prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians picks, MLB best bets for Sunday Night Baseball
Bill calls for mental health assessments be made available for all Virginia 6-12th graders
A proposed law would ask that mental health assessments be made available for all sixth-12th grade public school students in Virginia.
Business Notes for April 12, 2026
The Gazette’s Business Notes is a compendium of the week’s promotions, new hires, certifications, added business lines and business events.
Don't mess with Walt Weiss: Atlanta's new manager is a 'different breed'
Walt Weiss is making headlines in his first weeks as Atlanta's skipper.
Watch: Provost Dittmar, Project Metis leaders outline vision for brain health, brain economy
Four months after its launch, Project Metis is building momentum — with a new website and video offering a deeper look at the initiative’s vision to position the Houston-Galveston region as a global leader in brain health and the emerging brain economy.
Philippines says any energy deals with China must respect its sovereignty
The Philippines said on Sunday that any decision to pursue oil and gas cooperation with China would be made strictly in line with its constitution and respect its sovereignty.
Tips on how to handle politics in the workplace in Iowa
The bottom line: Iowa’s private employers have wide latitude to regulate political activity at work.
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/12/26
Happy Sunday, Jets fans! Here are your links for the last day of this April weekend. Nick Faria – Jets have another potential trade partner in the first round Nick Faria – One line from scout highlights Jets’ real draft ‘plan’ Stefan Stelling – Slipping WR prospect could fall into Jets’ laps at No. 16 […]
Falcons projected starting defense with player grades
Projecting the Falcons starting lineup on defense with player grades
How the Mall of Louisiana survived the retail apocalypse — and how it can continue to stay afloat
Since 1997, the Mall of Louisiana has served as Baton Rouge’s go-to shopping center, surviving a period when many malls suffered from financial pressures and competition with online shopping.
New Orleans all-metro girls basketball team headlined by state champion from John Curtis
A John Curtis senior headlines the 2026 New Orleans all-metro girls basketball team.
Ken Bridges explores Roger Mills in Texas' Civil War efforts, politics
In his latest Texas history column, Ken Bridges explores the life and impact of Roger Mills - from Civil War battles to conflicts in U.S. politics.
Yankees news: Boone angry with ABS failures
Yanks worst in baseball at challenges; bottom of lineup a Problem; farewell to Winquest; RIP to an old-timer.
Kawhi Leonard status for Warriors game emerges after ankle development
Once a dark horse contender, Los Angeles faces turbulence as Kawhi Leonard’s health and headlines cloud their playoff hopes.
Africa is losing health workers when it can least afford to – a pattern rooted in colonial history
Health workers consistently move from poorer countries to richer ones, a pattern that tracks closely along lines drawn by colonial history.
Pacoima business owners say Montague Street conditions are driving customers away
Montague Street in Pacoima has become nearly impossible to ignore. Trash, abandoned furniture, and human waste line parts of the sidewalk and street, creating conditions that business owners say ar…
Food hall vendors outline plans for downtown Santa Fe venture
The new Santa Fe food hall at 150 Washington Ave. will feature 17 vendors — 11 eateries and six beverage enterprises.
Tribal and Rural Healthcare at Risk in Oklahoma Gov. Stitt’s Attack on Medicaid
Guest Opinion Oklahoma leaders often visit Cherokee Nation’s Health System and celebrate our progress and tout our unmistakable impact on the health and economy of rural communities. Now, Governor Stitt is putting us on a path that will damage that very system. Recently the Oklahoma legislature passed Oklahoma HB 4440 and HJR 1067 to reverse […]
Mt. Carmel church hosts Minority Health Month men’s breakfast to raise awareness
Men gathered at Mt. Carmel Community Baptist Church on Saturday for the annual Minority Health Month Men’s Breakfast, an event aimed at raising awareness about
Pastors Scott Bottoms, Victor Marx win spots in Colorado GOP’s gubernatorial primary at party assembly
Two pastors from Colorado Springs qualified Saturday for the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot at the Colorado GOP’s state assembly in Pueblo in a party meeting that dragged late into the night. State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who is known as one of the legislature’s most conservative members, won top line on the June ballot, while missionary […]
2026 NFL draft preview: Linebacker prospects and the Arizona Cardinals
Jess Root and Seth Cox talk about linebacker prospects to know for the Arizona Cardinals in the 2026 NFL draft.
Tigres thrash and outclass Chivas at El Volcán!
Tigres made a statement at El Volcán, thrashing Chivas 4-1. The felines controlled much of the match, handing the Liga MX leaders one of their most painful defeats of the Clausura 2026. The party st...
Gary Jackson featured at FMU School of Business for annual Common Author Colloquium
More than 60 students, faculty and community members gathered at Harris Auditorium Thursday for the annual Common Author Colloquium featuring author Gary Jackson, who discussed his new book “Small Lives: Poems,” which reimagines superheroes with new themes. The event, hosted by Shawn Smolen-Morton, chair of Francis Marion University’s Department of Modern Languages and professor of...
🚨 Atlético Nacional line-up confirmed
Atlético Nacional plays its second match of the week and arrives at the Atanasio Girardot as the away side for the Clásico Paisa. El Verdolaga will defend the outright lead against DIM on Matchday 1...
10 minutes backstage with David Lee Roth at Coachella
INDIO, Calif. — David Lee Roth popped out at the Coachella Valley and Arts Festival on Friday to sing Van Halen's classic "Jump" with Teddy Swims. After the show, we
🚨 Tigres v Chivas line-ups confirmed
Tigres hosts Chivas this afternoon at El Volcán in one of the most attractive matches of the weekend. Guido Pizarro’s side will look to take all three points from the league leaders, which would he...
Kids with heart defects soar on zip lines at University Health Kids Heart Camp
SAN ANTONIO - Kids battling some very serious health dificulties got the chance toTwo dozen children born with heart defects spent Saturday trying out the kind
April 16 Vallejo-Vacaville Arts/Entertainment Source: Activities
April 16: The Drifting Cowboys, 6:30 p.m., Empress Marquee Club, 324 Virginia St., Vallejo. April 17: Rise Vallejo Ribbon Cutting Ceremony and Family Carnival, 11 a.m., Rise Vallejo Early Learning Center, 1450 Coronel Ave.,…
Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
The House on Saturday, after four days of work – it usually takes two – finished up their work and voted on the $46.8 billion 2026-27 state budget, as contained in House Bill 1410 and 64 accompanying measures designed to help balance the budget. The delay in getting to the finish line was caused by […]
Dodgers, Yankees, Brewers Headline Dontrelle Willis' MLB Power Rankings
FOX Sports MLB studio analyst Dontrelle Willis lists his top five MLB teams right now. See who made the cut!
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
Dragon Age: Inquisition Servers Going Offline Later This Month
The online features have outlasted many live-service games, including Bioware’s own Anthem
Dianna Russini sidelined by New York Times during investigation into Mike Vrabel photos
Dianna Russini has been sidelined during an NYT investigation after photos surfaced of the NFL reporter with Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, per reports.
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa’s secret signal, ‘Charlie’s Angels’ star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Kelly Ripa's secret signal, 'Charlie's Angels' star on price of fame
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch
Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”
Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch
Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback
The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Memorial Hermann and BCBSTX reach a new deal, restoring in-network coverage, hospital says
The Houston-based health system and the insurance giant had previously let an April 1 deadline pass without a new agreement, meaning many patients across the region were forced to pay higher medical costs or find new doctors.
7 adrenaline-pumping entertainment apps to survive the wait between Shark Week 2026 episodes
With the brand new 2026 season, millions of viewers are again gearing up for a week of jaw-dropping marine biology, storytelling, and cinematography.
Social media erupts after Harris introduces 'mob boss' accent to attack Trump: 'Total cringe'
Kamala Harris impersonated Donald Trump as a mob boss while criticizing his foreign policy at a National Action Network event, sparking online backlash.
UMA, UMPI launch online medical laboratory science bachelor's degree to expand Maine’s healthcare workforce
The University of Maine at Presque Isle and the University of Maine at Augusta are launching a bachelor of science in medical laboratory science degree
UMA, UMPI launch online medical laboratory science bachelor's degree to expand Maine’s healthcare workforce
The University of Maine at Presque Isle and the University of Maine at Augusta are launching a bachelor of science in medical laboratory science degree
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
Losing your sense of smell might signal Alzheimer’s far earlier than expected. Scientists found that immune cells in the brain actively destroy smell-related nerve fibers after detecting abnormal signals on their surfaces. This damage begins in early stages of the disease, well before cognitive decline. The discovery could help identify at-risk patients sooner and improve treatment timing.
Ahead of fishing opener, health officials update fish consumption guidelines
The new fish consumption guidelines include warnings about eating too much fish caught in northeastern Minnesota lakes and rivers, where fish tend to have higher mercury levels. And the state warns against consuming fish from the Vermillion River, south of the Twin Cities, because of PFAS contamination.
Texas House committee slaps Democrats with nearly $422K in penalties for 2025 quorum break
The Committee on House Administration voted along party lines to fine 50-plus Democratic members more than $8,000 apiece for fleeing the state to try to block a GOP-led congressional redistricting plan.
Skyrim’s massive RP server that replaces NPCs with players just broke a new record
Skyrim’s massive new 750 player roleplay server is transforming the 2011 classic into something entirely unprecedented.
Detroit Lions set for top 30 visit with Toledo DB
The Detroit Lions will host Toledo defensive back Andre Fuller on a top 30 visit next week.
These 6 airlines offer beds in economy; tickets can cost up to $2,600
United got the coach bed idea from Air New Zealand, which debuted its famous "Skycouch" in 2011. A few other airlines have adopted their own version.
Burnley XI vs Brighton – Predicted lineup and team news
Burnley host in-form Brighton today, aiming to narrow a ten-point gap to Premier League safety.The Clarets have moved closer to relegation after winning only once in 22 league games. Manager Scott Par...
Contract talks planned for key defensive trio at Borussia Dortmund
Sports BILD is reporting that more concrete talks at Borussia Dortmund are planned with Gregor Kobel, Waldemar Anton and Julian Ryerson. However, the popular German tabloid does not provide any furth...
The Connection Between Food and Mood
There's a strong link between foods you eat and your mood. Here's what to include and what to limit in your diet.
Barcelona vs Espanyol – Predicted lineup and team news
Barcelona will look to make it seven La Liga wins in a row when they host Espanyol at the Camp Nou on Saturday.The Catalan giants have dominated this fixture in recent years — Espanyol haven’t bea...
Juventus predicted lineup and team news vs Atalanta
Juventus make the trip to Bergamo this Saturday night to take on Atalanta in Serie A.Only four points separate the two sides — Juventus sit fifth with 57 points from 31 games, while Atalanta are sev...
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg Final Face-Offs
The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line in the UFC 327 main event on Saturday. Former titleholder Jiri Prochazka faces No. 3 ranked Carlos Ulberg in the featured fight at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. During Friday's UFC 327 Ceremonial Weigh-In, the athletes faced off ...
‘What Is Failing Again: Jalyx Hunt Talks Perseverance, Mental Health at Last Lecture
Jalyx Hunt, Philadelphia Eagles outside linebacker and Super Bowl Champion, delivered this year’s Last Lecture focusing on resilience, failure and mental health on Friday afternoon.
From Hollywood headlines to Heartland buzz: Are you on the pulse?
Test your knowledge of entertainment with this quiz on celebrities, trends and headline-making moments. Featured this week: guess the iconic duo and who is causing a stir in Hollywood.
Robert MacIntyre has awkward Masters exit after a middle-finger moment, missed cut and no interviews
Robert MacIntyre made headlines for all the wrong reasons at the Masters | NewsRadio WILK
Personal trainer shocked to find health company using his photos
Sion documented his weight loss journey online and was shocked to find a company was using his photos.
Black Maternal Health Week puts focus on improving outcomes
Recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows a slight decline in maternal deaths, from 18.6 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2023 to 17.9 in 2024. […]
Alamo Drafthouse showing 'The Pitt' finale free for health care workers
Ten Alamo Drafthouse locations are hosting free screenings of "The Pitt" Season 2 finale on Monday, April 13. Limited tickets are available online.
Manipulating Science, Manipulating Us
Four decades ago, I and Gerald Markowitz published an article in the American Journal of Public Health that attracted a fair amount of attention. The article was about the history of the introduction of tetraethyl lead into gasoline in the 1920s. The article detailed the controversy over putting lead, even then a known industrial poison and neurotoxin, into the gasoline that was powering the new automobile, particularly those that were produced by the General Motors Company.
How science is rewriting the rules of marine taxonomy, one seaweed at a time
Along the southern coastline, researchers dive deep to collect seaweed from kelp forests and rocky platforms, taking small samples and the location of each sample. Back in the lab, the specimens are preserved—some ...
Reform UK local election candidate was twice disciplined by Tories over ‘racist comments’
Tories disowned Derek Bullock in 2023 after he allegedly used a racial slur to called for people of Pakistani heritage to be shot
Stayed in balcony cabin on Norwegian Cruise Line Luna ship: Review
I tried a balcony cabin on Norwegian Cruise Line's newest ship, Norwegian Luna. It has pros and cons, and could be a good value for some travelers.
What's in Wisconsin's plan for latest round of opioid settlement funds?
The state health department released the plan April 9. State lawmakers have the ultimate say in how opioid settlement funds are spent.
Al Gore to Keynote 2026 Hollywood Reporter Sustainability Event
Marking the 20th anniversary of his Oscar-winning documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth,' the former vice president will headline the April 23 ceremony honoring TV dramas for their sustainability achievements.
Morning Download: UNLV projects a nearly $11 million NIL/revenue sharing budget
On weekday mornings, Nevada Sports Net will recap three big headlines of the day in its Morning Download. Read below for today's topics.
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Wide Receiver
The Lions are well stocked at WR for 2026. Is there a chance they add to that position in the draft?
Apple TV Sets Interactive Fan Experience For 'Pluribus', 'Shrinking'
Apple TV is bringing some of its biggest hit series, from Pluribus to Shrinking, to fans for an up-close look with a two-weekend event.
NBA player prop picks, odds, predictions, free best bets: Model includes Deni Avdija on Friday, April 10
The SportsLine model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed its best player prop bets
CPI: Inflation rose to 3.3% amid Iran war in March, missing forecasts
The new CPI report showed headline inflation sped up in March to the highest rate since 2024. The Iran war is affecting gas prices.
Vitali Prakapenka of the University of Chicago receives the 2026 Gopal K. Shenoy Excellence in Beamline Science Award
Vitali Prakapenka of the University of Chicago is the recipient of the 2026 Gopal K. Shenoy Award for Excellence in Beamline Science for his decades of contributions to the GeoSoilEnviroCARS beamline at the Advanced Photon Source.
Whole Hog Politics: Vance’s Hungarian gambit
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 a.m. EDT at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audi…
Crimson Desert is getting boss rematches, difficulty settings, and extra skills in upcoming updates
Pearl Abyss has outlined some of the new content and features coming to Crimson Desert in future free updates.
Hong Kong animal groups urge HKTVmall boycott over life science experiments
Online retailer facing major backlash after its parent company confirmed tests on pigs’ and sheep’s detached heads and limbs.
Confessions from a laid-off sports columnist: Candace Buckner is done being sidelined
Sipping lattes and watering my garden of grievances didn't fill the stadium-sized hole in my heart. Thanks, sports, for letting me back in.
Mainz midfielder ruled out for multiple weeks
1. FSV Mainz 05 will have to manage without Jae-sung Lee in the coming weeks.After the midfielder missed Thursday’s 2–0 win over Racing Strasbourg in the Conference League, sporting director Niko ...
Democrats worry Schumer’s pick in Maine could imperil hopes of Senate control
Maine’s Democratic governor, Janet Mills, has gone negative against Graham Platner. The attacks have not worked, and Minority Leader Charles Schumer so far has declined to bail her out.
How Airlines Turned First-Class Seats From Freebies to a Profit Engine
Airlines used to give away most of their nicest seats, but they have increasingly found ways to persuade people to pay a lot for them.
Crimson Desert Dev Confirms Boss Rematches, Hard Difficulty, Enemy Territory Recapture, and a Whole Lot More Is Coming Soon
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has outlined a number of significant changes coming to the game in the coming months, each addressing various community complaints that were highlighted recently. Here's everything you need to know.
EBACE Show Canceled As New Format Fails to Win Support
EBAA trade group said lack of momentum made the show not viable
H.R. 1 underscores unfairness in Colorado tax code
By Caroline Nutter On July 4, 2025, Colorado’s budget was overturned with the stroke of a pen. When President Donald Trump signed into law H.R. 1, or the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, he didn’t only cut federal funding by $3.4 trillion, he also cut Colorado’s budget by more than $1 billion. H.R. 1 expanded […]
Radiology departments can cut costs and save the planet by limiting ultrasound waste
The modality uses a high volume of linens, gels and other disposable supplies that also can have a significant global carbon footprint in radiology, experts note.
Singer Delta Goodrem follows in Celine Dion’s footsteps to Eurovision
Singer-songwriter Delta Goodrem, who is representing Australia at this year's Eurovision Song Contest, says she believes in the power of music | NewsRadio 1080 KRLD
Singer Delta Goodrem follows in Celine Dion’s footsteps to Eurovision
Singer-songwriter Delta Goodrem, who is representing Australia at this year's Eurovision Song Contest, says she believes in the power of music | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Singer Delta Goodrem follows in Celine Dion’s footsteps to Eurovision
Singer-songwriter Delta Goodrem, who is representing Australia at this year's Eurovision Song Contest, says she believes in the power of music | WWL
Singer Delta Goodrem follows in Celine Dion’s footsteps to Eurovision
Singer-songwriter Delta Goodrem, who is representing Australia at this year's Eurovision Song Contest, says she believes in the power of music | KNX News 97.1 FM
Gen Z's political alienation drives rise in extremism
Gen Z’s pandemic scars, social-media isolation and disordered home life have eroded trust in the American social contract, increasing disaffection and political extremism.
Searching for Truth Inside Viktor Orban’s Media Machine
In Hungary, politics often splits along generational lines. The election result may hinge on how many voters still trust what they see on state television.
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why
Shares of global online betting powerhouse Flutter Entertainment (NASDAQ:FLUT) fell 4.3% in the afternoon session after an analyst from Citizens lowered the price target for the company, citing a cautious outlook for the U.S. online gaming sector.
China\'s K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
BTS is back after a three-and-a-half year break, but their world tour is skipping China. This comes as no surprise, as China has blocked most South Korean entertainment since 2016.
Hip-hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa dies at age 68
Afrika Bambaataa, a hip-hop pioneer, has died of prostate cancer in Pennsylvania at age 68, according to his lawyer. Known for tracks like “Planet Rock,” Bambaataa was a key figure
China South Korea Entertainment Ban
Chinese fans of K-Pop group Seventeen line up outside a pop up booth in Beijing, Friday, March 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Hackers drain local jewelry business of its Shopify account
A local online jewelry business says hackers drained its Shopify account to 18 cents, leaving sales, restocks and shipping at a standstill.
‘Smart Underwear’ Measures Gut Gas for Microbiome Science
Device snapped into underwear monitors flatus frequency in real time to set a new baseline for what’s typical and gain insight into microbiome activity.
Penn researchers use AI to surface unreported GLP-1 side effects in Reddit posts
Could mining Reddit with AI help spot drug side effects earlier? A new Penn study suggests it might. Using large language models to map patient posts to standardized medical terms, researchers analyzed more than 400,000 Reddit posts about GLP-1s and found both known side effects and possibly underrecognized symptoms, like menstrual changes. The team says the approach could eventually help generate early safety signals for other drugs and wellness trends discussed online.