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Assassinations unleashed under Trump haunt Iran war endgame
U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies have tracked evidence for years of Iranian efforts to target President Trump, with signals only increasing since the start of the war.
Assessing AI's growth in the political world and in daily life
Artificial intelligence is increasingly transforming society, workplaces and politics.
Deana Carter To Headline Marshall County Fair Entertainment Lineup
MOUNDSVILLE — This year’s Marshall County Fair, slated July 19-25, will include a performance by country music star Deana Carter, known for hit songs like “Strawberry Wine.” Carter is scheduled to perform at 9 p.m. Saturday, July 25, on the main festival stage at the Marshall County Fairgrounds, 1433 12th St., Moundsville. Opening for Carter […]
These are my favorite new Messages features in iOS 27 [Video]
iOS 27 makes Messages smarter than ever with Apple Intelligence, Siri, Genmoji, and quality-of-life improvements.
AtlasIED platform clarifies audio at Ohio entertainment venue
Liberty Collective, an 18,000sqft complex in Liberty Township, has deployed Atmosphere platform to overcome intelligibility issues created by its open-plan, high-ceilinged design
Lancaster County public sales: July 10, 2026
Intel Auctions conducted a public auction of real estate June 5 for Mervin and Rebecca Ann Kaufman at 339 Churchtown Road, Narvon. The 2.3-acre property sold for $575,000 to Levi
AI, science and the risks in China’s reliance on imported precision equipment
The country is dependent on overseas high-end scientific instruments, crimping use of artificial intelligence, researcher says.
Israel shared intelligence with US of Iranian plot to assassinate Trump, sources say
Israel shared intelligence with the United States that Iran had recently devised a new plan to assassinate President Donald Trump, two sources familiar with matter told CNN.
Nobel-Winning U.S. Chemist Omar Yaghi Will Move to China to Lead A.I. Institute
Omar Yaghi of the University of California, Berkeley, will head an initiative to apply artificial intelligence to the discovery of new materials.
Meta’s Zuckerberg Says Exploring AI Cloud Business Makes Sense
Meta Platforms Inc. needs all the computing power it can get, Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said, but in a market starved for resources necessary to run and develop artificial intelligence products he’s also considering whether some of Meta’s AI infrastructure could be more valuable if rented to outsiders.
Microsoft expects more Windows security updates from AI-discovered flaws
Microsoft says Windows users should expect to see an increase in security updates as the company increasingly relies on artificial intelligence to discover vulnerabilities in its codebase.
Paylocity makes another acquisition to expand AI tools
Paylocity, a Schaumburg-based specialist in online payroll and human services tools, is expanding its artificial intelligence capabilities with an acquisition announced today.
GTA Online The Kortz Center Heist Releases Next Week, New Details Revealed
The next GTA Online update, The Kortz Center Heist, has just been revealed by Rockstar Games along with a release date. The company formally announced on Thursday that they’d be releasing a …
Three New College of Arts and Sciences Masters Programs Will Take Students to the Cutting Edge
School launches graduate degrees in quantum computing, data-driven economics, and artificial intelligence
How to Bring More Data Science to YouTube and Creator Media
I am constantly writing about the challenge facing agencies and brands when in comes to YouTube. Is it TV? Social video? Search? Commerce? Do you fund it from all of those respective budgets, and measure it using all their respective metrics? Sean Odlum, Chief Product Officer at Tinuiti, says it may not make sense to try and “bucket'“ YouTube. “You kinda gotta treat it as its own thing,” he said. “Years ago, we had debates [along the lines of] ‘what is this?’ Ultimately we decided, it’s YouTube. It is hard to categorize because it is so protean.” Which ultimately means that almost every part of a media department or marketing group will likely touch YouTube in some fashion. And that it probably needs its own sets of metrics and measurement tools. At Tinuiti, that need has led the agency to develop the YouTube Intelligence Suite, which aims to help brands optimize YouTube campaigns while using all the traditional marketing tools they are used to, such as MMMs. “I wouldn’t say there is a YouTube playbook,” Odlum said. “[For media planners] there is this vast bubbling ocean, so where do you start?’ A lot of brands and agencies struggle.” “You don’t want to just brute-force it—spray dollars everywhere and eventually learn. You want to start intelligently and then learn iteratively.” The problem, Odlum and his team have found, is that “brands have largely defaulted into demand generation campaigns because they’re easier to measure.” However, “you can really build your own content ecosystem around these trusted experts.” Check out the full interview here: Thanks for reading Next in Media! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
Princeton collaborators celebrate start of observatory's ‘ultra-high-definition time-lapse record of our Universe’
Princeton researchers have played a major role in developing software pipelines to process the massive amounts of data the Legacy Survey of Space and Time generates as it scans the cosmos.
Big Business is Leasing Record Office Space in Mamdani’s New York
Some of the biggest names in banking, law and artificial intelligence are expanding their footprints in Manhattan and Brooklyn office towers.
Mass-produced science is coming. What happens to scientists?
Artificial intelligence may soon enable researchers to generate high-quality science at a previously unimaginable speed. For science consumers—the public, medical patients, technology users—the likely effects will be positive. For scientists, the effects will be as disruptive as industrial mass production was for artisan manufacturers.
New satellite system could detect nukes in space
‘You can fake intelligence, but you can’t fake physics.’
AI helped scientists discover two new superconductors, bringing them closer to a room-temperature breakthrough that could change electronics
Artificial intelligence is now fast becoming an important component in scientific investigations, and its recent achievement may have very significant effects on the advancement of technology. Scientists devised a way to utilise artificial intelligence in scientific research, which has not only resulted in the discovery of two new superconductors, but has also expedited the process of discovering even more superconductors.
Douglas Elliman Bets on AI to Reinvent Brokerage Business
Luxury real estate brokerage Douglas Elliman Inc. is betting artificial intelligence can expand its business beyond buying and selling homes.
AI is changing mortgage lending. Business intelligence is making it possible.
ICE's Chris McEntee discusses how AI is changing mortgage business intelligence, why data governance matters and how lenders can build AI-ready operations.
Only 48% of current radiologist job listings include a salary estimate
That’s according to a new analysis from radiology artificial intelligence developer Kirill Lopatin, released on July 7.
Meta Launches New Image Generation Tool for Consumers and Businesses
Meta has begun rolling out an image generation model available in Meta AI. Muse Image is the first such model developed by Meta Superintelligence Labs,
Palm Beach County students gain hands-on business experience at entrepreneurship forum
Nearly 300 students in Palm Beach County participated in the "Mind Your Business" forum, which focuses on STEM, media, artificial intelligence, and trades.
AI is already reshaping US politics at every level
Artificial intelligence is barging into the workplace and transforming the battlefield. Now, it’s coming to the ballot box, promising to rewrite the DNA of politics. Driven by a flood of Silicon Valley money, AI has emerged as one of the biggest financial forces in this year’s U.S. elections, fueled by hundreds of millions of dollars […]
Intelligent Computing appoints Philip S. Yu and Osmar R. Zaïane as new editors-in-chief
Intelligent Computing, a Science Partner Journal co-founded by Zhejiang Lab and the American Association for the Advancement of Science(AAAS), has appointed Philip S. Yu and Osmar R. Zaïane as its new Editors-in-Chief. Philip S. Yu and Osmar R. Zaïane succeed the journal's founding Editors-in-Chief at a pivotal stage of development, as Intelligent Computing continues its rapid growth as an international open-access journal dedicated to advancing the convergence of intelligence and computing.
Argonne team’s ChemGraph unlocks AI for chemistry and materials science
Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory have developed a framework, ChemGraph, that uses artificial intelligence to help nonexperts access computational chemistry expertise.
Oracle Named a Visionary in 2026 Gartner® Magic Quadrant™ for Analytics and Business Intelligence Platforms
Oracle Named a Visionary in 2026 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Analytics and Business Intelligence Platforms. In our view, this reflects the progress we are making as analytics and AI become more connected.
Health insurers’ AI vision
Health insurers are increasingly embracing artificial intelligence as part of their business models, bullish on the technology’s potential to revolutionize care and drive down costs.
Apple Intelligence Home Features Require 2TB iCloud+ Plan in iOS 27
Using Apple Intelligence camera features in the Home app will require an iCloud+ plan starting at 2TB, according to Apple. Apple shared the detail in its notes for the third macOS Golden Gate beta that was released today. In iOS 27, iPadOS 27, and macOS 27 Golden Gate, the Home app is able to generate written summaries for motion alerts from HomeKit Secure Video cameras.
Apple adds new popup for AI features that send data to Google Cloud
Apple now uses Google servers to power some of its new and upcoming AI features, and the company is using...
Bailey campaign embraces artificial intelligence in new era of politics
Artificial intelligence-generated images and videos are ushering in a new era for political campaigns and Republican Darren Bailey is leading its introduction in Illinois during his second run for governor.
Apple and Intel Could Be Going Into Business Together. Which Is the Better Buy?
Both tech giants are trading at premium valuations.
Clarivate Announces Sale of Life Sciences & Healthcare Segment for $600 Million
/PRNewswire/ -- Clarivate Plc (NYSE: CLVT) ("Clarivate" or the "Company"), a leading global provider of transformative intelligence, today announced it has...
Why AI Doesn’t Think, Cannot Reason, Isn’t Intelligent and Will Never Achieve Consciousness
Recent public comments made about AI suggest that Americans have difficulty with the implications of linear time. This is odd given that its conception is largely Western and is centered on the clock time used to coordinate capitalist employment. The conceptual difficulty regards sequencing, or plans for future actions. But it also involves the distribution of profits. 100% of the capital equipment used in Western economic production was produced by workers. So, why does the resulting product belong to financiers rather than those who produced it?
B.I.D. Academy demonstrates how artificial intelligence can transform small businesses
BELTON — For years, artificial intelligence has largely been associated with chatbots, writing assistance and internet searches. But during the second session of Prairie View A&M University Extension’s Business Innovation
Superintelligent AI in space could explain the Fermi Paradox
Why haven't we found evidence of advanced aliens? It could be that they've outsourced cosmic exploration to superintelligent AI, a new paper suggests.
Thomas Jefferson’s Embrace of Intelligent Design
Today on Independence Day, it is appropriate to review the sources of our rights as citizens.
Are the ‘MANGOS’ Stocks Already Turning Soft?
Wall Street loves an acronym. The latest one stands for Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia and three other companies at the center of the artificial intelligence boom.
‘Who Should I Vote for?’ Voters Turn to A.I. Before Casting Their Ballots
It takes effort to be an informed citizen. Artificial intelligence tools offer an alluring shortcut — but they’re not without risk.
AI is already reshaping US politics at every level
Artificial intelligence is barging into the workplace and transforming the battlefield. Now, it’s coming to the ballot box, promising to rewrite the DNA of politics. Driven by a flood of
iPhone 18 With 9GB RAM Still Won't Support Two New iOS 27 Features
The lower-end iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e will be equipped with 9GB of RAM, up from 8GB in the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17e, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In a social media post, Kuo said the 1GB increase in RAM will ensure that Apple Intelligence features continue to run smoothly on the pair of devices. The higher-end iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable "iPhone Ultra" will each have the same 12GB of RAM as the iPhone 17 Pro models, added Kuo.
Could Your AI Content Land Your Business In Court?
Generative AI is helping businesses create content faster, but it is also creating new copyright and intellectual property risks that many companies do not understand.
Meta's Watermelon AI model has caught up to GPT-5.5, Alexandr Wang says
Meta's superintelligence chief says its upcoming Watermelon model now matches GPT-5.5 on key AI benchmarks.
Artificial intelligence: Yann LeCun works on more flexible AI
Leading AI researcher Yan LeCun has a start-up which is developing a more flexible AI system.
Zuckerberg said AI agent progress has been slower than expected
Superintelligence will take time, Zuckerberg tells Meta staff, as the company makes its AI training program opt-in after a data leak.
Report: Small Business AI Adoption Grows » CBIA
Artificial intelligence is moving from experimental technology to an everyday business tool for small businesses, according to a new report.
Intel Expected To Restart Supply Of 10th, 12th, 13th, And 14th Gen Processors In Mainland China
Intel will reportedly focus more on the previous-gen processors to fulfill the current demand in the PC market. Intel is Reportedly Restarting Supply of Last Four Generation of Processors as Motherboard Vendors Ramp Up DDR4 Platform Production Roughly a month ago, we reported that some vendors are now restarting the production of DDR4 platforms, i.e., DDR4-compatible motherboards. This is to ensure the market gets DDR4 motherboards in sufficient quantity, as expensive DDR5 memory has made it unfeasible to build DDR5 systems on a budget. More reports are surfacing confirming the same report, and Intel appears to have prepared accordingly. Related […]
Microsoft Frontier Company: AI engineering that amplifies and protects your intelligence
The pace of AI adoption is moving incredibly fast. Customers have moved well beyond experimentation and understand the importance of adopting AI to transform their business. They are now concentrating on delivering measurable business outcomes and demonstrating a return on their AI investments, while ensuring their intelligence is amplified and their IP is protected. Today...
The White House goes all in on aliens with new UAP Science Advisory Council
This new group, which is led by Harvard professor Avi Loeb, aims to advise the Trump administration and the U.S. intelligence community, as well as to publish its findings in peer-reviewed journals
🌈 The political fatigue of doing feminist and queer research in anti-gender times
Anti-gender politics does not only attack rights. It attacks the knowledge that makes those rights intelligible. Massimo Prearo argues that anti-gender politics is an epistemic conflict as much as a political one. This conflict generates political fatigue among researchers engaged in feminist and queer work. We must address such fatigue through distance, care and collective reflection
Sobble Community Day: Your Go-To PvE Guide
Sobble Community Day makes Inteleon a strong Water-type raid attacker with Hydro Cannon and a valuable future pick for Max Battles.
Bowles Extremely Impressed With 1 Quality of Rueben Bain Jr.
Defying concerns over his physical reach, the rookie edge rusher is wielding veteran-level intelligence to ignite Tampa Bay’s pass rush and solve a long-standing defensive drought.
GTA Online Event Week: Independence Day Special (July 2nd-8th)
[responsivevoice_button] A new GTA Online Weekly Update has begun and Rockstar are offering Independence Day rewards, massive discounts and more ahead of the new update. Check out everything happe…
‘The science is here’: UN chief welcomes first global AI assessment
Fresh scientific evidence and options for harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) were unveiled Wednesday following the launch of the first global, independent scientific assessment of opportunities, risks and impacts by a pioneering UN expert panel.
Experity acquires AI firm to automate urgent care revenue management
The move by the Machesney Park-based Experity is meant to accelerate revenue cycle management automation through artificial intelligence.
Protecting Science. Advancing HIV Prevention. Preparing for What's Next
Global health is being reshaped by rapid geopolitical shifts, scientific breakthroughs and the growing role of artificial intelligence — creating both new opportunities and new challenges. Translating scientific breakthroughs into impact requires protecting research, advancing equitable access and ensuring communities are at the center. Explore AVAC’s latest resources to help navigate and shape what comes […]
People moves: Lucy Fato departs from Seaport Entertainment Group
Seaport Entertainment Group has confirmed that Lucy Fato, its EVP, general counsel and corporate secretary, h
Big Tech is spending billions to not employ people
Amazon disclosed $2.7 billion in estimated severance costs in its latest annual report, while Intel and Oracle also reported spending $1.8 billion.
AI, Data Centers, and the New Politics of Power Demand
Artificial intelligence (AI) has overturned the long-stable trajectory of U.S. electricity demand. After decades of flat growth, planners and regulators now face a surge driven by hyperscale data
AI-Driven Restructuring Accelerates Layoffs Across U.S. Technology Sector
Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping the U.S. technology industry, with major companies accelerating workforce reductions.
Employers who laid off workers citing AI are already starting to regret it
Companies are realizing artificial intelligence can't do everything after all, prompting them to rehire employees to grow their businesses
Nearly 1 in 5 U.S. teens have turned to AI chatbots for mental health advice, study finds
A growing number of adolescents and young adults in the United States are turning to artificial intelligence chatbots for help with their mental health.
What 124 Future Business Leaders Really Think About AI and Work
Insights from 124 career assessments written by UMD-Smith graduate students show 98% expect artificial intelligence to transform, not eliminate, their careers. The analysis also found AI raises performance expectations while increasing demand for strategic thinking, AI literacy, ethical judgment and critical evaluation of AI-generated work.
Anthropic launches AI drug discovery program, joining tech giants in betting on healthcare
Anthropic will start an internal drug discovery program, part of a new push to sell artificial intelligence tools to drugmakers.
Anthropic launches AI drug discovery program, joining tech giants in betting on healthcare
Anthropic will start an internal drug discovery program, part of a new push to sell artificial intelligence tools to drugmakers.
Bailey campaign embraces artificial intelligence in new era of politics
State lawmakers consider requiring campaigns to disclose AI-generated ads
Bailey campaign embraces artificial intelligence in new era of politics
Article Summary Republican Darren Bailey’s campaign for governor is embracing images made with artificial intelligence in social media posts. The
Authentic Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Care Bears
Authentic Brands Group, a global brand and entertainment platform, today announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the intellectual property of Care Bears, one of the world's most beloved and enduring family entertainment franchises.
Jon and Mindy Gray Bet on AI Science Research to Prevent Cancer
Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray has steered his firm to more artificial-intelligence investments, and the same is true with his science philanthropy.
Disastrous GTA 6 Pre-Order Numbers Revealed By Store Staff
GTA 6 pre-orders opened last Thursday and it is speculated millions, potentially tens of millions of people, have already parted ways with $70 to $100 ahead of launch. However, physical sales of t…
Company that made a Steam Machine wrap based on Valve intellectual property without asking forced to take it down
Dbrand's Portal-themed Companion Cube wrap for the Steam Machine won't be seeing the light of day for a very good reason.
Use of artificial intelligence for mental health splits opinion
Two-thirds of those aged 25 to 34 have asked chatbots for wellbeing support
AI is rewriting the political competitive landscape
Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a central infrastructure layer in political campaigns, reshaping how elections are financed, contested and influenced, The New York Times reports. Campaigns and affiliated political groups are increasingly investing in AI-driven tools for voter targeting, message optimization and large-scale content generation, turning modern elections into capital-intensive, technology-enabled competition. This shift is […]
KARE 11 Spotlights Mental Health at USA Games through Special Olympics Strong Minds
KARE 11 visited Special Olympics Strong Minds to hear from USA Games athletes and volunteers about how the screening aims to address the mental health disparities faced by people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
Newsom's office touts Anthropic 'partnership,' 50% discount on Claude AI for California agencies, localities
Golden State Gov. Gavin Newsom's office indicated that state agencies and local governments may access Anthropic's Claude artificial intelligence platform at a 50% discount.
Healthcare AI's next big leap: Removing friction from clinical workflows
Rather than just adding more applications, one CMIO says, organizations should focus on using automation and intelligence to eliminate unnecessary steps, reduce clinician burden and streamline care delivery.
Taylor Launches New Bachelor's Degree in AI & Machine Learning
Taylor University is launching a Bachelor of Science in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, building on four decades of AI expertise.
Google Cloud to Offer Specialist AI Models for Science Research
Alphabet Inc.’s Google will start offering specialist artificial intelligence models from software company SandboxAQ through its cloud service, expanding enterprise and research access to technology designed to accelerate drug discovery, materials science and semiconductor manufacturing.
South Korean tech giants to build a $518 billion chipmaking hub to serve soaring AI demand
South Korean tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to invest a combined $518 billion in a new computer chip manufacturing hub, capitalizing on surging artificial intelligence-driven demand.
Ingredion plans global Benicaros prebiotic expansion across gut and immune health applications
Ingredion highlights that its recent acquisition of the Benicaros prebiotic is a strong strategic addition to its Healthful Solutions portfolio, supporting the company’s formulation versatility alongside expansion of health-forward and clean label ingredients. The company purchased the patented prebiotic fiber, made from upcycled carrot pomace, from NutriLeads earlier this month. With the deal, Ingredion obtained full ownership of all intellectual property, trademarks, human clinical trials, and know-how related to manufacturing Benicaros.
Why did this journal retract two 1940s papers by Max Planck?
Clicking on the links now reveals blank pages and empty PDFs. "Intellectually, it’s not acceptable.”...
The AI Politics of 2028 Are Starting Now
Gina Raimondo and Eric Holcomb are not running for president. They might drive the 2028 agenda on artificial intelligence anyway.
Gilbert Chamber Foundation brings AI basics to local businesses
Business owners in Gilbert and the East Valley are getting a hands-on look at how artificial intelligence could keep them competitive.
Are You Falling Into These 5 AI Traps? Here's How Smart Leaders Avoid Them.
Artificial intelligence is making founders fall into the same leadership traps. Here's how to make sure you avoid them.
Sports Intelligence Project explores high-end decision making in multifaceted industry
A new co-curricular offering tasks students with combining data, AI and the human element of athletics.
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
Intel’s chip business shows signs of life after years of struggle
Not long ago, Intel was seen as Silicon Valley’s fallen icon. Now it is showing signs of a turnaround amid the AI boom.
Taylor Launches New Bachelor's Degree in AI and Machine Learning
Taylor University is launching a Bachelor of Science in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, building on four decades of AI expertise.
Federal AI security center measure advanced by House Science
A measure that would put into law a key federal office focused on artificial intelligence advanced Thursday out of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, as part of a slate of AI-focused and data center bills. The committee advanced the bills on a bipartisan basis, but put off potential changes regarding funding levels for […]
How Outward Intelligence founders bootstrapped to seven-figure revenue
Three friends with résumés spanning Google, Palantir, and Harris Poll skipped venture capital and bootstrapped their startup instead.
Intel’s Chip Business Shows Signs of Life After Years of Struggle
It is the centerpiece of President Trump’s drive to make more chips in the United States, but the company still has a long way to go before it can be called a complete turnaround.
‘Disgusting and vile’: Locals react to arrest of Tampa business owner on AI child porn charges
A Tampa business owner is behind bars facing more than 100 felony charges. He’s accused of making child pornography using Artificial Intelligence.
Generative artificial intelligence creates delicious, sustainable, and nutritious burgers
npj Science of Food - Generative artificial intelligence creates delicious, sustainable, and nutritious burgers
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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