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George Clooney's wife Amal admits life was 'easier' before marrying the Oscar winner
George Clooney's wife Amal says life with the 'Ocean's 11' star is not always easy.
State Street Eating House owner wins women-owned business award at Sarasota ceremony
Owner says she was unprepared for the recognition at the Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Sarasota Business Awards.
ACES hosts event looking at health impacts of climate change
Dr. Mark Gladwin, the dean of University of Maryland School of Medicine and the vice president of Medical Affairs, is slated to speak with Aspen Center for Environmental Studies from 6 to 7 p.m. July 2 on the worsening health impacts in the face of human-driven climate change.
Carolina Reportedly Shopping Rookie Defenseman Alexander Nikishin
Stung by high contract demands and defensive inconsistencies, the Stanley Cup champions may trade their offensive blueliner to land a multi-time Vezina winner for the crease.
'Supergirl' spoilers! Milly Alcock explains that 'twisted' ending
Spoiler alert! The following post discusses important plot points and the ending of “Supergirl” (in theaters now) so beware if you haven’t seen it yet.
Video shows suspect shattering windows at North Bay LGBTQ business
The owners of Townhouse Cocktail Lounge say several windows at the business were shattered by the person in the video. Vallejo police are investigating.
Confederate flag displayed at N.C. exhibit at America's State Fair
A flag featured in the North Carolina exhibit at America’s State Fair on Washington’s National Mall is drawing some unwanted attention.
Tolle tries to tackle Yankees in Friday night clash
Can the momentum actually be kept up from last night’s win?
Pete Buttigieg says he was the victim of bogus report to child protective services
The high-profile Democrat and potential 2028 presidential contender said he couldn’t see his twins for 24 hours as report was investigated.
Barker reclaims title at National Road Championships
Megan Barker reclaims her British elite women's circuit race title as the second day of the National Road Championships produces its second Welsh winner.
What is a doublet earthquake? The science behind twin tremors
Several of the world’s most destructive earthquakes were actually two or more tremors occurring in rapid succession
Apple Loop: iPhone 18 Pro Release Date, Hidden iOS 27 Features, iPhone Air 2 Details
This week’s Apple headlines: iPhone 18 Pro price and release date, hidden iOS 27 features, iPhone Air 2 specs, unexpected Mac and iPad price rises, how Apple wins AI and more...
Democratic candidate challenging Rep. Lawler on her bid to ‘tear down political silos’
New York U.S. House candidate and combat veteran Cait Conley (D) joins Meet the Press NOW following her primary win. She faces incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in one of November’s most closely watched races as Democrats try to flip the House.
Pete Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after police say he was target of false report
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the target of an anonymous report that police determined was false and that he says forced him to spend a night away from his four-year-old twins.
Trump warns ‘godless communists’ will turn cities into slums as Dems fail to fight socialist surge
Trump calls Democratic socialist primary winners "godless communists" at Faith & Freedom Coalition, warning of threats to America's founding principles.
France's Ousmane Dembélé records second-fastest hat trick in World Cup history in 4-1 win over Norway
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an address to the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce, pledging to reduce regulatory barriers while investing in education, public safety, and economic development. Drawing on her own experience […]
We have an epidemic of political violence in this country: National Review columnist
National Review columnist Caroline Downey discusses growing political violence and criticizes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his remarks about the Chicago cross-burning incident.
We have an epidemic of political violence in this country: National Review columnist
National Review columnist Caroline Downey discusses growing political violence and criticizes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his remarks about the Chicago cross-burning incident.
Colonial Market owner closes south Minneapolis location due to sharp drop in business following Metro Surge
Colonial Market owner Daniel Hernandez has closed the chain’s south Minneapolis location, which he said never recovered after the store’s employees and customers were targeted during Operation Metro Surge.
GOP senators seem increasingly game to buck some Trump priorities
Is growing pushback from conservative corners of the upper chamber a sign that Trump’s grip on his party may be slipping?
Windows 11 is getting redesigned taskbar settings in new build
Microsoft is giving Windows 11 redesigned taskbar settings, and the changes are already available for testing in the latest build.
Community Challenge Chaos Spreads
To celebrate the release of the Chaos Cubed game drop, the mayhem continues with our Chaos Spreads Community Challenge! Unite with your friends and play with the free add-on reward, courtesy of completing the Chaos Sparks Community Challenge. Players can collectively win a new Bedrock world for all from Blockception!
Science Can Fully Explain Consciousness? By 326 Theories…
It’s supposed to be a given that machines or brain organoids might be conscious despite not knowing what that is or how it works — but preborn children can’t be…
Xprize founder says 'humans behave better when they’re being watched'
Peter Diamandis is the latest tech executive to argue that global surveillance will make the world a better place, following Larry Ellison's comments in 2024.
ON Semi tanks 20% following Synaptics deal as CEO defends core business
The pivot into physical AI grows On Semi's addressable market by an additional $30 billion, the company said.
Intel’s chip business shows signs of life after years of struggle
Not long ago, Intel was seen as Silicon Valley’s fallen icon. Now it is showing signs of a turnaround amid the AI boom.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Queens NICU Awarded Gold Beacon Award for Excellence
The Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) at NYC Health + Hospitals/Queens has been honored with the prestigious Gold Beacon Award for Excellence from the
ECU Health announces 2026 Board Quality Leadership Award winners
ECU Health Board Quality Leadership Award winners were recognized for delivering exceptional experiences and advancing patient outcomes.
Athlete of the Year finalist: Penn Manor standout provided the power for Comets in 3 sports
Anneli Starry didn’t know what she had in Joelle Kroesen. The Penn Manor girls lacrosse coach labeled the then-freshman as a swing — an athlete who is rostered on two
Remigration: a growing far-right movement
Once a fringe position, calls for mass deportation are spreading throughout Europe and entering mainstream politics
Texas Democrats meet for convention amid questions about party unity
Democrats see state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, as the best opportunity to flip the long-held Republican U.S. Senate seat and want to see how he will win over Black voters.
Music Legend Axes Shows After Onstage Health Scare
Lionel Richie was hospitalized on the opening night of his tour with Earth, Wind & Fire after feeling dizzy on-stage.
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
Nintendo Switch 2 ends first full year in the U.S. at nearly 6 million units sold, second fastest-selling video game system
Following the latest U.S. sales report from Circana, we have information about the first full-year sales of Nintendo Switch 2. The console ended its first twelve months at 5.9 million units sold. According to Circana, it’s the second fastest-selling video game system in the U.S. with tracked history dating back to 1995. The only other platform to outdo it was...
2026 SEC football predictions: Game-by-game picks, projecting every team's final win-loss record
Continuing our early-summer projection series for all 16 teams in the SEC and where they'll end up in the postseason
Cannes Lions Entertainment Awards: Adidas' Oasis Collab Wins Grand Prix
The 2026 Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity winners across entertainment, design and craft categories were announced. Sports apparel and footwear maker Adidas' tie-up with English band Oasis winning the top prize in the Entertainment Lions category.
How to get free Windows 10 security patches until October 2027 - and avoid the $30 fee
Don't want to pay to keep Windows 10 security updates? Microsoft has several workarounds, with the best deal for European users.
Strength Training Could Be One of the Best Things You Do for Your Brain
A growing body of research suggests strength training can help preserve cognition and improve brain health as you age. Experts explain the best way to work strength training into your routine.
Morgan Stanley on life after selling your business: a roadmap for entrepreneurs
Selling your company can be the financial win of a lifetime — and one of the most disorienting transitions you'll ever face.
Karl Stefanovic Speaks Out on Nine Exit After Tommy Robinson Scandal
The 'Today' host declares himself 'free' in a YouTube statement after Nine ends his contract following a deleted Tommy Robinson podcast episode.
Bayer wins in US court, but at what cost to public health?
A landmark US Supreme Court ruling protects Bayer from thousands of lawsuits linked to its Roundup weedkiller. Plaintiffs alleged the German agrochemical giant failed to warn users about potential cancer risks.
Memorial Health Championship in full swing in Springfield
Organizers are also offering additional attractions beyond golf, including food trucks, the Scheels Fan Zone and Family Fun Day on Saturday, which features a superhero theme for children and families.
College Sports Communicators Recognize Strelow with Writing Awards
BOONE, N.C. — App State's award-winning strategic communications staff added more honors this spring, as Bret Strelow was recognized for two stories in the Fred Stabley Sr. Writing Contest that's conducted by the College Sports Communicators organization.
Democrats’ real plan to control Congress again
New York’s socialist insurgents are getting the headlines. But in swing House districts, the establishment has been getting its way.
These 15+ award-winning gadgets are on sale for Prime Day - but we'd pay full price
Editor-approved tech is still on sale during Amazon's Prime Day sale - but don't wait much longer to shop.
French people are painting chalk on their windows in the heat
A simple, low-tech remedy may help cool homes. Here's the science behind the trend.
Freedom Con: Thousands of Men Gather for Christianity and Feats of Strength
Thousands of men and boys gathered in central Washington for masculinity, Christianity and right-wing politics.
NFL legend reveals real reason why Antonio Brown left Steelers
NFL legend LeSean McCoy shared the real reason Antonio Brown left the Pittsburgh Steelers following the 2018 season.
The heatwave hacks that will actually help to keep you cool
Should you wear wet socks to bed or point a fan out the window? Can the ‘Japanese door fan’ technique cool a baking hot car? Here’s what the science says
What could be next for Gakpo?
Following the departure of Mohamed Salah, at least one more attacking signing is expected at Anfield this summer. Liverpool have already signed Victor Munoz from Osasuna for £34.5m and the pursuit of Yan Diomande is heating up. Talented teenager Rio Ngumoha is also set to play a more prominent role, while Florian Wirtz played off the left for Liverpool at times last season and is featuring there for Germany in the World Cup.
The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026: Winners Announced
Wavy, Secret Alchemist, Sarelly, Dr. Diamond’s Metacine, Borntostandout and Suri are the winners of The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026, honoured on Thursday at the Global Forum in Napa Valley, California.
Best Prime Day laptop deals: Save up to $970 on MacBooks, Windows PCs
Laptops are very expensive these days. These discounts help.
Phillies’ Byron Buxton rumor won’t come true, but another trade with Twins still makes sense
Who else could the Phillies land?
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA PRESENTS | This Weekend in the Twin Cities – Entertainment Guide: June 26 ~ June 28, 2026 Edition
Twin Cities weekend features Pride, Breakaway, concerts, festivals, theater, museums and family events across Minneapolis, St. Paul and beyond.
Slotkin says Democratic Party needs 'new leadership': 'Old models are no longer working'
Sen Elissa Slotkin calls for new Democratic Party leadership, saying old models no longer work and the party must simplify its message to win back voters.
TST Images: Aces defeat the Wings, 99-84, at Michelob ULTRA Arena
LAS VEGAS, Nev.
Hollywood gets into the microdrama race as mobile-first storytelling draws stars and major studios
Mobile-first serialized storytelling is rapidly becoming one of entertainment's fastest-growing businesses.
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Twin City Entertainment collaboration to host the Carol Burrnett Show in West Monroe June 27th
WEST MONROE, La. (KTVE/KARD) — Residents in the West Monroe area will have the chance to enjoy a night of laughter later this week as a live stage production inspired by The Carol Burnett Sho…
NBA fans troll Victor Wembanyama after MVP chants in France
Victor Wembanyama is back in France after leading the San Antonio Spurs to the NBA Finals. While his team failed to win the championship, he still received a lot of love from his countrymen. The 7-foot-4 center entered a club…
Trump's DOT clears a pedal-free path for Tesla and Zoox
The NHTSA is proposing allowing the removal of pedals and steering wheels for AVs, making it easier for Tesla and Zoox to pursue alternative designs.
How to manage public investment in science with balance
Public debt is higher today and growing at a faster rate than before the pandemic in 80% of the world's economies. According to the latest fiscal report from the International Monetary Fund, global public ...
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Heastie brushes off growing DSA influence, defeat of incumbents in Albany
Heastie sought to put the results into context while speaking with reporters at an unrelated event in Schenectady on Thursday.
Behavioral Healthcare Close to Home: SRMC Services Available in Sandoval County
Sandoval County spans more than 3,000 square miles with a population of 160,000 residents. As one of New Mexico’s fastest growing counties, it’s crucial the people who live there have access to high quality healthcare, including behavioral health...
The Week in Business: D'Amico Hospitality's Next Chapter
This week’s top stories from Twin Cities Business.
New district leaders could take over Brooklyn Democratic Party
The current chair said she believes in "moving forward."
Dems put on blast over poll that shows record-low patriotism in US: 'Tear our society apart'
Rep. Harriet Hageman raises alarm over Gallup poll showing just 17% of Americans were "very proud" of their country, a record low in 25 years.
Growing sinkhole in Houston's Third Ward raising safety concerns for business owner, neighbor
A growing sinkhole behind a property on Scott Street in Houston’s Third Ward is raising concerns for a longtime business owner and her neighbor.
Lionel Richie postpones concert at United Center in Chicago following health scare at Minnesota show
Lionel Richie has postponed his concert this week at the United Center in Chicago following his health scare at during his first performance in a tour with Earth, Wind and Fire.
Blue state leaders erupt after Supreme Court’s decision ending TPS protections for Haitians, Syrians
Supreme Court rules 6-3 in favor of Trump administration in two key immigration cases on Temporary Protected Status and asylum, drawing opposition from blue state Democrats.
Video of Tom Sandoval pushing ex's dad into firepit surfaces
Bravo alum Tom Sandoval is in the midst of another controversy after video surfaced showing an altercation with his ex and her father.
David Clayton-Thomas, Blood, Sweat and Tears singer, dies at 84
David Clayton-Thomas, best known as the lead singer of the Grammy-winning jazz rock group Blood, Sweat & Tears, has died. He was 84.
2026 World Cup Is Putting FIFA’s Rules on Political Neutrality to the Test
The World Cup is in full swing across North America, and the U.S. men’s team faces Turkey in its final group round appearance on Thursday. But behind the cheering fans and nail biting matches, FIFA's commitment to political neutrality is put to the test. Marisa sits down with Tariq Panja, global sports correspondent at The New York Times. They dig into the politics behind the games, from restrictions on Iran’s team and President Trump’s unusually close relationship with FIFA president Giann
Distrust In Science Isn't New: We Mistook Silence For Trust
Distrust in medicine and science isn't a new crisis. Drawing on decades in communities, a physician explains the real source and how we earn trust.
Golden State Valkyries employee named in Sports Business Journal's Forty under 40 list
The Golden State Valkyries have created a winning culture on and off the court. After making WNBA history last season becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, the success is also extending throughout the organization.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
College Sports Commission to continue reviewing deals by multimedia rights companies
A judge ruled that multimedia rights companies that represent university athletic departments can continue to be subject to the same rules governing millions in third party name-image-likeness payments to players that are reshaping college sports.
MLB All-Star 2026: Shohei Ohtani and Ernie Clement receive automatic spots after winning Phase 1 of fan vote
Moore links Maryland primary to Mamdani-backed wins; analysts disagree
Gov. Wes Moore says Maryland’s primary election showed voters rejected the status quo, but political analysts say the results reflect a more complicated picture.
Yearslong Resident Evil mystery solved: Kyle MacLachlan revealed to be Jill Valentine's 'boyfriend'
Twin Peaks star has ties to STARS
Winter Sports Club to raise Olympian banners July 3 at Olympian Hall
The Steamboat Springs Winter Sports Club will raise banners to the rafters of Olympian Hall at Howelsen Hill to honor the area’s most recent Olympians. The event will take place from 4-5:30 p.m. on July...
FlashPoint: How a Christian political media network became a platform for Indiana’s Lt. Gov.
By Sydney Byerly The Indiana Citizen June 25, 2026 When Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith called Islam a “demonic death cult” during an appearance on the Christian political program FlashPoint in May, the remarks drew swift backlash from faith leaders across Indiana. It also highlighted the growing influence of the Christian media network that amplified
Injury-hit Warrington dig deep to beat Catalans
Warrington overcome injury problems to move level on points with Leeds at the top of Super League with a gutsy win over Catalans.
PAHO mobilizes emergency health response following earthquakes in Venezuela
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 25 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has activated its emergency response mechanisms to support the health response in Venezuela following two magnitude 7.5 earthquakes that struck the country on June 24.
WATCH: Kellyanne Conway insists socialist primary victories don't reflect American values nationwide
Kellyanne Conway says Democratic primary wins reflect only a handful of specific districts and do not signal a broader political shift nationwide.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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