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Aggressive “hulk” lizards are wiping out millions of years of evolution
For ages, wall lizards coexisted in three distinct color types, each with its own strategy for survival. Now, a powerful green variant is taking over. These dominant “Hulk” lizards are outcompeting the others, causing yellow and orange morphs to vanish. It’s a dramatic reminder that evolution can flip the script much faster than expected.
Financial concerns are now taking their toll on Americans' physical health
Yahoo Finance's Senior Columnist, Kerry Hannon, joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss how money worries are hurting Americans' health.
Jim France stepping down as NASCAR CEO, paving way for first non-France family member to lead the sport
Steve O'Donnell is taking over operations of America's leading auto racing series.
State agency plagued with leadership turnover hired deputy commissioner accused of taking $99K from Colorado nonprofit
The former regional executive director of CASA of Adams and Broomfield counties was hired by the state Behavioral Health Administration in November
Nevada regulators approve Golden Entertainment going private
The Nevada Gaming Commission Thursday signed off on Golden Entertainment taking the company private. The Las Vegas-based casino operator whose flagship property is The Strat on the Strip, has de...
‘This is very transformative for the business’: Lyft’s head of growth on taking a big step into London’s black cab sector
The ride-hailing giant has agreed to acquire Gett UK, making it the largest app for London's iconic black cabs. Lyft's EVP for global growth, an Arsenal fan, is excited.
Portland looks to charge residents, businesses a monthly street fee
Portland city councilors are taking a drive down transportation funding memory lane with plans to advance a new fee to pay for street maintenance and safety projects.
These Fun Pursuits Help Middle-Aged Folks Protect Brain Health, Study Finds
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterFRIDAY, April 24, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Picking up an instrument. Taking a trip abroad. Going out to dinner with friends. All of these are pleasant activities that add spice to life. And they are also some of the most powerful ways to boost brain power and ...
Russell Brand slams his ex-wife Katy Perry's romance with Justin Trudeau: 'Too far'
Russell Brand said ex-wife Katy Perry's relationship with Justin Trudeau was taking it "too far," criticizing the former Prime Minister of Canada for being "ultra woke."
Taking Care of Business Program takes care of 460 trees along commercial corridors while growing green skills
In the past four years, the Taking Care of Business Program planted and maintained 460 trees on 60 blocks within 15 commercial corridors.
Louisiana GOP passes bill to keep elected Black New Orleanian from taking office
Louisiana Republicans April 23 rammed through legislation to keep Calvin Duncan, a wrongfully convicted Black man and attorney, from taking office as New Orleans’ Clerk of Criminal Court, a move
This Week in Sports Trivia: April 23, 2026
How closely were you following the sports news this week? Find out and test your knowledge by taking The Athletic's weekly quiz.
DeSantis says he's taking up Jeffries' invitation to 'F-around and find out' on Florida redistricting effort
Gov. Ron DeSantis fires back at Hakeem Jeffries over Florida redistricting, inviting the Democratic leader to campaign in the state ahead of 2026 midterms.
High school sports top performers from Tuesday aren't taking it easy
They certainly aren't on a break. Tuesday's Fantastic 5(+1) high school sports performers put up big numbers and delivered in the clutch.
Taking Vitamin D? Magnesium and K2 Could Make a Difference
Should you take vitamin D with magnesium and vitamin K2? Here’s how these supplements work together, plus safety tips and recommended doses.
Crab Fest returns with packed entertainment lineup
The Astoria Warrenton Crab and Wine Festival is back for a lively weekend of fresh seafood and nonstop entertainment taking place from April 24-26 at the Clatsop County Fair and […]
Christian Parker is giving Cowboys' defense a makeover. What will that mean for the NFL Draft?
"You can't go wrong taking big, long, athletic guys," one Dallas evaluator said. "That's what we want to get back to."
Deep Sea Mining Symposium Announcement
Abstract submissions are now open for the 8th International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC8), taking place November 13–17, 2026, in Edinburgh, Scotland—and we’re excited to announce an open sym…
Health Youth Corps Showcase held at Fresno City College
Dozens of students across Fresno County are taking action to help educate the public with their year-long research projects.
The Business Model Podcast: From Idea to Business
Anybody can have a good idea. It’s taking the next step that gives people more trouble. On this Founder Group Chat, we have three founders who have turned
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Dietrich’s Morgan Denning signs to play three sports at Colorado Northwestern
A Dietrich High School senior signed his letter of intent this afternoon to continue his academic and athletic career, taking on the challenge of three sports.
Taking it on the Chin: Cubs 5 Phillies 1
The runs weren’t unlucky this time and the offense didn’t respond.
Apple's new CEO is a product perfectionist taking on the AI age
To understand how Apple's new CEO John Ternus will run the company, pay attention to what he refuses to sell.
Same problems, different night for Penguins in Game 2 loss to Flyers
For two days all the Penguins could talk about was turning the page on their Game 1 loss to the Flyers. Their problem was they still ended up taking notes...
Johny Srouji Taking Over as Apple's Chief Hardware Officer as John Ternus Transitions to CEO
Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Technologies Johny Srouji is set to take on an expanded role as Apple's Chief Hardware Officer as John Ternus transitions to his role as Apple's next CEO. Srouji is going to lead Hardware Engineering, reporting to Ternus. Current Apple CEO Tim Cook said that Srouji has been pivotal in Apple's transition to Apple silicon. Johny is one of the most talented people I have ever had the privilege to work with.
Apple CEO Tim Cook is stepping down
John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, will be taking the helm as chief executive.
5 ways to get more magnesium without taking a supplement
Chances are, you’re not eating enough of this essential mineral. Here’s how to get more magnesium from food, and why it’s important for health.
Health care fight intensifies as Congress weighs GOP-backed insurance changes
Congressional Republicans say they are taking steps on health care — but Democrats counter that previous efforts are already costing Virginians coverage and putting hospitals under strain. Republicans have pointed to measures like the Rural Health Transformation Fund and an association health plan expansion bill that has cleared the House and is headed to the […]
Samsung Galaxy S27 Will “Most Likely” Ship With A Silicon-Carbon Battery With A Much Higher Lifespan
Samsung refused to adopt the silicon-carbon battery tech until it was truly ready, taking a moral stand that cost it dearly in China.
Indiana Fever training camp begins with health and focus on improved style
The Indiana Fever began their 2026 campaign on Sunday. Players were healthy and the roster is taking shape, but some questions remained.
Experts reveal why 'nonnamaxxing' trend may improve mental, physical health
'Nonnamaxxing' is a growing trend inspired by Italian grandmothers that promotes cooking from scratch, taking daily walks and reducing screen time. Experts say it can boost mental health.
Cavaliers, Guardians games lead local business boom
It’s an eventful weekend for sports fans in Cleveland with two major teams taking the field and center court for home matchups, which may also boost foot traffic in nearby restaurants and bars.
Taking a look at the big picture for healthcare growth in SW Florida
This is a "What We Do" Q&A with health reporter Liz Freeman about the healthcare boom taking place in SW Florida.
Trump signs order to hasten review of psychedelics
Ibogaine and other psychedelics remain banned under the federal government's most restrictive category for illegal, high-risk drugs. But the administration is taking steps to ease restrictions and spur research on using the drugs for medical purposes, including conditions like severe depression.
Crimson Desert's Next Major Patch Adds Difficulty Settings and Inventory Tabs Next Week
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has said it’s taking the time to make sure it properly tests and polishes the game’s next major patch, which is due out next week. Here's what to expect.
Lions mock draft roundup: Final predictions from 72 experts
Taking a closer look at the prospects from the 2026 NFL Draft that have been projected to the Lions over the past week.
What caffeine does to ants could change pest control
Caffeine doesn’t just perk up humans—it can sharpen ants’ minds too. Invasive Argentine ants given caffeinated sugar learned to find food much more efficiently, taking straighter paths and reducing travel time by up to 38%. They weren’t faster, just more focused, indicating improved learning. This unexpected effect could make pest control baits far more effective.
Amherst Sustainability Festival: A Day of Family Fun, Education, and Entertainment
Mark your calendars for the 14th Annual Amherst Sustainability Festival, taking place on Saturday, April 25 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on the Amherst Town Common. Coinciding with the regularly scheduled Amherst Farmer’s Market, this free and family friendly event brings together local farmers, environmental vendors, advocacy groups, live entertainment, hands-on demonstrations, sustainable crafts, and much more. “The Amherst Sustainability Festival has become a beloved event
Hackers are abusing unpatched Windows security flaws to hack into organizations
A security researcher published details of three security vulnerabilities in Windows Defender, and the code used to exploit them. Now, hackers are taking advantage of the vulnerabilities in real life attacks, according to a cybersecurity firm.
Health Sciences Showcase Highlights Advances in Care
President Andrea Goldsmith attended a presentation highlighting the breadth of work taking place across Stony Brook University’s Health Sciences Schools.
Louisiana GOP races to keep an exonerated Black man from taking office in New Orleans
The Louisiana House Judiciary Committee April 16 passed a bill essentially eliminating New Orleans’ clerk of criminal court just weeks before Calvin Duncan, a Black man who was wrongfully imprisoned for decades before being elected to the position last year, is set to take office.
CBS Has Revealed What's Taking Over Stephen Colbert's Time Slot — And It's Not A New Host
After three decades, the 11:35 p.m. slot is going to look a lot different.
2026 NBA Playoff Odds: Best Bet for Wolves-Nuggets; Who Will Win East?
Find out which squad Sammy P is backing to come out of the East and whether he's taking the T'Wolves or Nuggets to advance past the first round.
RFK Jr. defends his health agenda and Trump's proposed budget cuts in hearing
In his first appearance this year, the health secretary is taking questions on his record on health, including his controversial moves on vaccines.
Health-E Commerce® to Demonstrate Engagement and Technology Solutions for Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs), Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), and Health Reimbursement Arrangement (HRAs) at WEX® SPARK Partner Conference 2026
Health-E Commerce®, parent brand to FSA Store® and HSA Store®, announced today that it will join benefits industry leaders as a Platinum sponsor of the WEX SPARK Partner Conference 2026, a premier event for health and benefits professionals taking place April 27–29 in Orlando, FL.
TRICARE covers well-child care to help keep kids healthy from day one
Taking care of your child’s health starts early—and regular checkups can make a big difference. TRICARE covers well-child care for children from birth up to the age of 6, helping families keep their kids healthy as they grow.
This Week in Sports Trivia: April 16, 2026
How closely were you following the sports news this week? Find out and test your knowledge by taking The Athletic's weekly quiz.
TRICARE covers well-child care to help keep kids healthy from day one
Taking care of your child’s health starts early—and regular checkups can make a big difference. TRICARE covers well-child care for children from birth up to the age of 6, helping families keep their
The Guardian view on social science research: embracing uncertainty
Editorial: Science rarely produces identical outcomes. Mistaking this for failure turns caution into an excuse for inaction
How Meta’s little-known chip business fits in with Zuckerberg’s ‘superintelligence’ ambitions
Taking a page from Google’s and Amazon’s books, Meta is racing to vertically integrate its AI infrastructure with its Broadcom deal.
Previewing Jaguars' tight end position ahead of 2026 NFL draft
With the 2026 NFL draft near, we will be taking a position-by-position look at where things stand with the Jaguars. Up next are the tight ends.
Adobe's Firefly AI Assistant works across Photoshop, Premiere and other apps
Adobe is taking on AI apps like Gemini's Nano Banana with its new prompt-based Firefly AI Assistant.
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn’t regret taking it
Sara Mearns is one of the first dancers with the New York City Ballet to wear hearing aids during performances.
No let-up from Southend after reaching play-offs
Southend United captain Gus Scott-Morriss rules out the team taking a breather in their three remaining National League games after securing a play-off place for the second consecutive year.
Why Many Americans Are Turning to AI for Health Advice, According to Recent Polls
NEW YORK (AP) — When Tiffany Davis has a question about a symptom from the weight-loss injections she’s taking, she doesn’t call her doctor. She pulls out her phone and consults ChatGPT. “I’ll just basically let ChatGPT know my status, how I’m feeling,” said the 42-year-old in Mesquite, Texas. “I ...
Dodgers being cautious with Mookie Betts’ return from oblique injury
LOS ANGELES — Technically, Wednesday’s series finale against the New York Mets is the first day Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts is eligible to return from the injured list. But he won’t be returning any time soon from his oblique strain, taking a more deliberate approach in his rehab. “He’s moving well. I see him throwing, […]
Lakers prepare for Rockets playoff series with emphasis on rebounding
Without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined indefintely, coach JJ Redick says "taking care of the basketball and boxing out. That's the series."
As companies leave Massachusetts, Spain sees opportunity in Boston’s life science hub
The Spanish government is taking its chance on Boston’s booming life sciences hub. Here’s how.
Cattle futures up ahead of direct business
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, live and feeder cattle were higher, ahead of the week’s direct business and taking into consideration the tight supply of ready numbers. June live cattle closed $2.90 higher at $251.42 and August live cattle closed $2.07 higher at $246.52. May feeder cattle closed $2.02 higher at $374.85 and August feeder […]
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
Ally Bank reached 50/50 spend on men’s and women’s sports. Now its CMO is taking on ‘fanflation’
Women’s sports are booming, but rising prices could push out the very fans who built them.
Some people don’t lose weight with GLP-1s. Evidence is building that the drugs are helping anyway
The majority of people who start taking GLP-1 medicines with the hope of losing weight, the drugs can quiet cravings and help them shed stubborn pounds. But research is also continuing to reveal GLP-1 medicines’ benefits independent of weight loss — even if people gain weight.
Analysts believe Apple taking a highly unusual step, may double Mac user base
Analysts believe Apple may be adopting a very uncharacteristic policy in pursuit of accelerated growth. The company has traditionally protected...
Shades of Ferguson but Carrick needs a response
Michael Carrick seemed to be taking a chapter out of Sir Alex Ferguson's play book with his ferocious attack on the decisions that went against Manchester United last night. The big question is how will they respond?
30 Under 30 Europe Sports & Games 2026: How Ellie Kildunne, Eberechi Eze And More Turn Competition Into Commercial Success
Ellie Kildunne, Antoine Dupont and Eberechi Eze are taking their winnings off the field. How these young leaders and more are changing sports, games and business for good.
Game 16 Game Day Thread – Texas Rangers @ West Sacramento Athletics
Taking on the Yolo County A’s
WECT INVESTIGATES: Hampstead business owner faces felony charge, state investigation
A Hampstead pool contractor faces a felony charge after accusations of taking customers' money and not finishing projects.
Masters action shows ongoing sports-betting growth of prediction markets
Sports books are in danger of taking a backseat to prediction markets.
The hidden health inequality facing even the wealthiest Black mothers
Khiara Bridges took on Josh Hawley. Now she’s taking on the maternal healthcare system.
Light-hitting Mariners taking advantage of Astros' shaky pitching
Every year, generally come playoff time, the question is asked: Does good pitching beat good hitting?
The ‘Wild West’ of peptides is booming. Here’s what’s real, what’s risky and what’s next
In the early 2020s, interest in GLP-1 weight loss drugs exploded. Now, as we move deeper into the decade, a new buzzword is taking over: peptides.
Patriots host second quarterback prospect on pre-draft visit
The Patriots are taking an up-close look at Texas A&M QB Behren Morton.
How To Understand Frontline, Diplomacy and Society in Iran
The ‘silent majority’ in Iran is not a passive bystander. Urban and university-educated groups are taking a stand against the war.
Brentford to host WSL teams for World Sevens Football tournament
Brentford will host the World Sevens Football London Edition at Gtech Community Stadium, taking place from 28-30 May 2026.Bees fans can purchase tickets in an exclusive pre-sale window.In World Sevens...
UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. Announces Upcoming Investor Webinar
Boston, Massachusetts--(Newsfile Corp. - April 13, 2026) - UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. (CSE: APPT) (FSE: 4KL0) ("UberDoc" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that Sean Kearney, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Paula Muto, Founder and Chief Medical Advisor, will present an introduction to UberDoc in a live investor webinar taking place on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, at 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET.The webinar will be hosted by Cory Fleck of the Korelin Report and provide an overview of...
Trump attacks Pope Leo, taking credit for his election as bishop of Rome
President Trump wrote that Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S.-born pontiff, was “weak” and “terrible” on crime and foreign policy. Leo has criticized the Iran war.
NBA play-in games taking shape: Heat-Hornets, Magic-76ers are set
The East play-in games are set | 97.3 The Sky
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn't regret taking it.
According to the National Institutes of Health, less than a fifth of American adults aged 20 to 69 who could benefit from wearing hearing aids have ever used them.
Mayor Helena Moreno eyes a new City Hall, courthouse: ‘We have waited long enough’
New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno is taking on a problem that generations of mayors before her have tried — and failed — to solve: The need for a new City Hall.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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