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B1Bank acquires local financial consulting firm American Planning Corp.
B1Bank has acquired American Planning Corp., a Baton Rouge-based financial consulting firm.
The Supreme Court just handed the political parties their best day in a generation
The Supreme Court’s decision in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC has strengthened the political parties, allowing them to spend without limit in direct coordination with their …
Fathom Entertainment Names Disney And Imax Alum Jason Brenek CEO
Specialty distributor Fathom Entertainment has named former Disney and Imax executive Jason Brenek as CEO. He will take over the top job after the previously announced retirement of Ray Nutt. Fathom’s...
Destiny 2 Players Get One Last Surprise from Bungie, Developer Reveals Limited Support Plans
Bungie has given Destiny 2 one last surprise as a farewell gift and revealed its limited support plans for the game.
SUN | Baltimore, business owners fight Dali owners’ bid to limit liability
Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and a business coalition are pushing back against the owners and operators of the Dali ship, asking a federal judge to reject
I vibe coded a 7-figure tool for my startup; the 4 steps I followed
John Hu left a banking career and his MBA program to build Stan. He and his cofounder went on to vibe code Stanley, an AI tool, in just 14 days.
Robinhood cofounder says he'll buy a 'baby-mobile' Ferrari Luce
During a stop on the TBPN podcast, Baiju Bhatt, a noted gearhead, said he's going to buy the Ferrari Luce. He's planning on giving it to his wife.
Here's what Microsoft offers in severance in latest layoff plan
Microsoft plans to lay off 4,800 staff, impacting sales and Xbox divisions. It's offering severance up to 39 weeks for most laid-off US employees.
Wimbledon: Novak Djokovic wins grueling 5-set thriller over Felix Auger-Aliassime, setting up semifinal with reigning champion Jannik Sinner
The five-set thriller took more than five hours to complete as the longest quarterfinal match in Wimbledon history.
Antimony mill open for business in Radersburg
Gov. Greg Gianforte joined state and business officials in Radersburg on Tuesday afternoon to celebrate the opening of a new critical mineral mill.
The 5 stock funds Americans can invest in through Trump Accounts
Children born between 2025 and 2028 are eligible for a one-time $1,000 deposit from the US government. Here's how the money can be put to work.
15 arrested for breaking into Gwinnett County entertainment parks, police say
Fifteen young people have been arrested after they allegedly broke into several entertainment parks in Gwinnett County as part of a social media trend, according to police.
I got ice-cream cake at Baskin-Robbins, Cold Stone, Dairy Queen: Winner
I purchased a custom ice-cream cake from chains Dairy Queen, Baskin-Robbins, and Cold Stone Creamery to find the best place to order from for a party.
Ohio health officials monitor cyclosporiasis cases
171 cases occurred in June alone in Ohio.
Ohio health officials monitor cyclosporiasis cases
171 cases occurred in June alone in Ohio.
Michael Burry hit back after Trump jeered short sellers
Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame said President Trump wouldn't understand his approach after Trump said short sellers were being "wiped out."
Why hyperscalers, Mag 7 are falling behind in the stock market's AI trade
Microsoft and Meta in particular are struggling to keep up with the broader tech sector as investors rebel against spending.
Midjourney founder says AI coding leaves friends 'extremely drained'
Midjourney founder David Holz said the phenomenon "makes me feel like something is wrong, and also that there might be a big opportunity."
The wealthy people pledging to fund Trump accounts
Wealthy individuals like Michael Dell and Brad Gerstner are pledging to give money to American children's Trump Accounts.
Private jets descend on Sun Valley's 'summer camp for billionaires'
The small Idaho resort town of Sun Valley will be once again overtaken by media and tech titans for the annual Allen & Co. conference.
Microsoft's Xbox business reset
Microsoft's latest Xbox layoffs show the pressures facing one of gaming's biggest names and how the new CEO plans to change course.
What Will the Twins Do at The Trade Deadline?
With the Twins still alive in the playoff race, they aren't expected to make any significant changes to their roster.
SCOTUS won't block Texas from enforcing age verification law for app downloads
Plaintiffs' lawyers argued that the law impermissibly seeks to limit access to content protected by the First Amendment.
Mario Lopez responds to being labeled a Trump supporter: ‘I’m not a political person’
Mario Lopez responded to reports that he supports Donald Trump in a since-deleted Instagram comment.
New Anthropic data center coming to Kentucky town
Terawulf announced that Anthropic signed a 20-year lease for a "purpose-built AI infrastructure campus" at a former industrial site in Kentucky.
Economic Development Committee to weigh two planning options for downtown and business campus sites
By Shereen Siewert | Wausau Pilot & Review Wausau's Economic Development Committee will consider planning agreements for a downtown mixed-use
Exclusive: Rural health funds to fix prior authorization
Delaware plans to streamline the insurer pre-treatment claims reviews, widely criticized for delaying timely health care.
Meet the MAGA darling mobilizing Americans against Big AI
Amy Kremer was a "Stop the Steal" activist who helped organize the January 6 rally in 2021. She's now mobilizing against AI data centers.
Beetroot juice is trending – its benefits go beyond the hype
Some marathon runners and other athletes swear by beetroot juice shots, but is there evidence they really do anything for our bodies? Columnist Alice Klein investigates
One year after Hill Country floods, Ingram couple rebuilds home, business
Lauren Westbrook revisits an Ingram couple one year after they lost their home and business to Hill Country flooding.
Donald Trump attempts to troll Taylor Swift during wedding weekend with 'America's Eras Tour' posts
The official White House launched a bizarre AI-powered campaign over the weekend during Taylor Swift's wedding to Travis Kelce, which ripped off her record-breaking 'Eras Tour' to tell the story of America.
Anti-gender politics and threats to democracy at the UN
Conservative governments and organizations are using the language of human rights as a smokescreen for regressive ideology.
Reported cyclosporiasis cases in Michigan rise to 572, state health officials say
Mallory McMorrow to end her U.S. Senate campaign
Mallory McMorrow's departure would make it a two-way race between U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and former Wayne County health chief Abdul El-Sayed.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 7/5/26
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Wall Street Pessimism Has Made Universal Health Services (UHS) Stock A Top Extreme Value Stock To Buy Now
Universal Health Services, Inc. (NYSE:UHS) is one of the Top 10 Extreme Value Stocks To Buy Now. On June 22, TD Cowen lowered the firm’s price target on Universal Health Services, Inc. (NYSE:UHS) from $230 to $197 and kept a Buy rating on the stock. The downward price target revision still reflects a 24% upside […]
1 Thing Standing Between Cincinnati Bengals and Super Bowl Return
The Bengals built one of the most talented rosters of the Joe Burrow era this offseason, but their Super Bowl hopes still rest on one thing.
Trump pokes fun at himself, roasts Obama in children's podcast
The 24-page book “Presidents Play!” features illustrations showing how presidents, despite their hectic schedule, unwind on the White House grounds
Dior, Chanel bags among items offered at Taylor and Travis' wedding
If an invite to Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's New York wedding wasn't cool enough, guests can also flex what they brought home.
86% of fans say live sports are becoming a luxury experience
Davey Chadwick from YouGov Sport examines whether live sports are now reserved for well-off Americans.
Dodgers overcome Roki Sasaki's poor performance to rout Padres
Roki Sasaki gives up six runs in only three innings, but the Dodgers offense comes through by scoring 12 straight runs against the beleaguered Padres.
UH to cease science operations at Maunakea’s UKIRT telescope this fall
The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope is one of thirteen working telescopes on the mountain’s summit and the third to be decommissioned.
Why the 49ers need another rotational pass rusher
Nobody has ever said you have too many pass rushers
Sports Illustrated ranks Dolphins uniforms top-10 for entire NFL
Dolphins have the 9th best uniforms in the NFL according to Sports Illustrated.
If Your Business Can't Pass This 3-Question Test, Your Customers Probably Feel Scammed
Are you creating value people knowingly want to pay for, or are you just good at collecting money people didn't intend to spend?
Avowed, The Outer Worlds, and Fallout: New Vegas Developer Obsidian Entertainment Reportedly Also at Risk of Closure Amid Xbox 'Reset'
Avowed and The Outer Worlds developer Obsidian is reportedly also at risk of closure amid Microsoft’s “reset” of the Xbox business.
Avowed, The Outer Worlds, and Fallout: New Vegas Developer Obsidian Entertainment Reportedly Also at Risk of Closure Amid Xbox 'Reset'
Avowed and The Outer Worlds developer Obsidian is reportedly also at risk of closure amid Microsoft’s “reset” of the Xbox business.
Entertainment this week: Fourth of July celebrations, live music and more
Friday, July 3 14th Annual Summer Concert on the Green – 6-10 p.m., Tahoe Donner Driving Range, 12790 Northwoods Blvd. Tahoe Donner’s largest family-friendly live music event returns for its 14th year, once again on...
Tariff refunds landing for Colorado importers, though not without a cost for small business
At least $23.7B in refunds from unlawful tariffs have been refunded to U.S. importers out of an estimated $166B owed, according to court testimony
Pre-Deployment Simulations Are Vital To Developing Generative AI That Can Best Provide Mental Health Advice
Pre-deployment simulation is a new technique from OpenAI. It can be used to better shape AI-led mental health guidance. An AI Insider analysis and scoop.
Over-40s with obesity have normal-BMI cholesterol and blood pressure levels, study finds
Success of statins and blood-pressure drugs hailed as researchers find some people with obesity were ‘better off’
Cheers and jeers for mayor’s reversal on NYPD headcount
A plan to increase NYPD headcount by 580 officers was scrapped in the final city budget.
The Supreme Court just made money matter even more
The Supreme Court ruled in NRSC v. FEC that political parties can spend unlimited amounts of money in direct coordination with their own candidates, further increasing the influence of money in pol…
Haleon teams up with Microsoft in 5-year AI pact to upgrade consumer health operations
Consumer health giant Haleon has tapped Microsoft to incorporate AI across its operations, joining a growing wave of healthcare and life sciences heavyweights turning to Big Tech to execute enterpr | Consumer health giant Haleon has tapped Microsoft to incorporate AI across its operations, joining a growing wave of healthcare and life sciences heavyweights turning to Big Tech to execute enterprise-wide digital overhauls.
Should Value Investors Buy Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Stock?
Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.
Scared to Take on a Challenge? Science Says It Will Instantly Seem Easier When You Imagine Facing it With a Friend
Research shows the presence of social relationship, whether real or imagined, will change how difficult a challenge appears to be.
Sacramento business continues to deal with damages a year after 4th of July fire
A year after fireworks sparked a destructive fire, a Sacramento business is still dealing with damages.
Magic find out group pairings for upcoming NBA Cup
The Magic on Tuesday night drew a compelling group for Group Play of the NBA Cup, the league’s fourth-ever in-season tournament. Orlando was placed in East Group A alongside Detroit, Toronto, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. The tournament — which will consist of two stages including Group Play and the Knockout Rounds — starts Oct. 30 and will end with the title game (Dec. 11) at Hinkle Fieldhouse ...
Boyle Heights community dealing with rotting smell, rodents, health concerns after warehouse fire
Advocates, legal experts react to key SCOTUS decisions
The court upheld both birthright citizenship amid an executive order by President Donald Trump to dial it back,
Advocates, legal experts react to key SCOTUS decisions
The court upheld both birthright citizenship amid an executive order by President Donald Trump to dial it back,
New York immigration advocates laud birthright citizenship ruling
The 6-3 decision came down Tuesday morning.
Lakers post farewell message to LeBron James after shocking decision
The Los Angeles Lakers are no longer suitors to retain LeBron James after he informed the team he would not return next year.
I asked strangers to let me farm their yards. They said yes
Marisa Mender-Franklin built a flower business after dozens of neighbors offered free yard space through Facebook.
Game 86: Twins at Astros
First Pitch (CT): 7:10 PMTV: Twins.TVRadio: TIBN/830 WCCO/102.9 The Wolf /Audacy AppKnow Yo’ Foe: Crawfish Boxes After taking a series from the Colorado Rockies, the Twins are heading to Houston to face the Astros. An up-and-down season has Astros in a similar spot as the Twins: just below .500 and fighting to cement themselves in […]
Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary carries 2020 echoes: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump’s voting plans run into resistance.
Holyoke Medical Center earns national award for improving patient experience
Holyoke Medical Center has received national recognition for its efforts to improve the patient experience through technology.
Opinion | America Is the Land of Endless Choice, Except in Politics
There’s a case to be made for a two-party system, but what do you do when your party loses its mind?
Harry Kane likely to sign new Bayern Munich contract despite Barcelona enquiry
Barcelona made an enquiry to Kane's representatives and have been informed that the 32-year-old is happy in Munich.
Former Titans running back Chris Johnson announces ALS diagnosis
Former Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson announced he has been diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS.
Meet the worst L.A. free-agent signing ever
There have been a lot of bad free-agent signing in L.A. sports history, but this one rises, or sinks among all the others.
Ahead of the MLB trade deadline, here’s where the Yankees stand
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is almost always aggressive when he believes in his team.
Secret Alchemist, Sarelly and Borntostandout Are Among the Winners of The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026
From emerging challengers to established disruptors, this year’s Global Awards winners are setting a new benchmark for beauty entrepreneurship.
Van crashes into former Benson business
A minivan drove through the side of a vacant building in Benson early Sunday morning, according to police.
Editorial: Keep up congressional pushback against Trump’s anti-science agenda
For about a decade, hundreds of deep-sea buoys off America’s coasts have been monitoring the conditions of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The streams of publicly available data they produce inform weather reports, generate valuable information about the planet’s changing climate and help the maritime industry and even the military maneuver the high seas.
Apple iPhone 18 Pro Release Schedule: Why iOS 27 Signals September Date
The just-released second developer beta of the next iPhone software helps confirm what is likely to happen and when for the next iPhones’ release date.
Spotlight falls on Ocado boss Tim Steiner’s £100m in payouts
Reports claim replacement being lined up for co-founder amid concern over high pay and company’s struggling share price
Michael Olise reveals the reason behind his trademark lackluster celebrations
Michael Olise is not know for his big celebrations.
Israeli politicians lash out after Netanyahu announces intention of 'broad national government'
During the press conference, Netanyahu condemned unnamed forces which "want to cause a rift in the people, want to aggravate and deepen the misunderstandings and disagreements and rifts within us."
See the fun at the 2026 Boone County Fair
See Kentucky residents embrace the rainy weather at the 2026 Boone County Fair. The fair also included a monster truck show.
Trump-backed Julia Letlow faces John Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, who was endorsed by Trump, and state Treasurer John Fleming are competing in the runoff. The two finished ahead of Sen. Bill Cassidy in the May 16 primary after Trump denounced the two-term senator, who voted to convict him following his 2021 impeachment.
Oklahoma City business taking donations to help Venezuela following multiple earthquakes
Venezuelan restaurant VeneBurgers is organizing donations to provide Venezuelans with necessary items.
How Trump’s takeover fractured America’s birthday party
When Next250 organizers began planning for America’s 250th birthday, they envisioned bringing together communities in a polarized country to celebrate democracy.
Author Meg Cabot says she's read the 'Princess Diaries 3' script 'and it was amazing'
Meg Cabot, author of the 'Princess Diaries' book series, says she's read the script for 'The Princess Diaries 3' starring Anne Hathaway and it's 'amazing.'
White House mandates move away from overdose prevention in US health programs
Experts say move signals greater political interference into public health and will exacerbate opioid overdose crisis
Business Leader Tim Giroux Announces Candidacy for Nevada Joint Union High School District Trustee
GRASS VALLEY, Calif. – June 26, 2026 – Tim Giroux, a business leader and community member rooted in the Auburn/Grass Valley area since 1999, today announced his candidacy for Trustee of the Nevada Joint Union High School District. The election will be held in November 2026. Giroux brings more than 40 years of business ownership […]
Supreme Court rules in weedkiller cancer case
Dems want to unmask Eli Lilly's obesity drug user, a new genome-editing tool raises ethics questions, and more health news
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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