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Exit 8 is cinema for the livestreaming era

When watching a video game is entertainment, what is watching a movie of a video game?

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Apr 17 • 11:11 AM EDT • Entertainment • engadget.com
Gwyneth Paltrow Is Bringing Her Takeout Business to New York City

Goop Kitchen says its top locations make $20,000 a day each. This month, the delivery and pickup company is going bicoastal.

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Apr 17 • 11:00 AM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Ford Recalls Up to 1.39 Million F-150s

Ford is recalling up to 1.39 million F-150 pick-ups over the risk of unexpected downshifting that can lead to a loss of vehicle control.

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Apr 17 • 7:27 AM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Green Bay business turns plastic waste into reusable resource

Less than a week before Earth Day, Cherry Optical Lab is showcasing their efforts to put their unused plastic to positive use.

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Apr 16 • 11:16 PM EDT • Business • wbay.com
HHS Wants to Be Done With Drama, for Now

As Trump nominates a new, uncontroversial CDC director, a more restrained version of RFK Jr. is appearing.

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Apr 16 • 5:15 PM EDT • Health • theatlantic.com
Republicans’ Anxiety Over Iran War Grows But Vote Against Curbing Trump’s Powers

GOP lawmakers want a quick to end to the fighting, but declined to vote to curb President Trump’s powers.

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Apr 16 • 5:10 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Netflix Chair Reed Hastings to Leave Board in June

Co-founder won’t stand for re-election to the board, Netflix said in first earnings report since pulling out of the Warner Discovery bid.

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Apr 16 • 4:02 PM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Trump says Iran agrees to hand over ‘nuclear dust’

Iran has not confirmed Trump’s claim. Giving up its highly enriched uranium would be a major step toward an agreement.

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Apr 16 • 3:54 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Cuba Tried to Deliver Secret Letter Directly to Trump Via a Cuban Businessman

Analysts saw the missive as an attempt to go around Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though it’s unclear whether the message reached the president

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Apr 16 • 2:27 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
A first look at Metro 2039 shows how its Ukrainian developer turned the darkness up to 11

Metro 2039 is scheduled to arrive this winter for Xbox, PlayStation 5 and PC.

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Apr 16 • 1:15 PM EDT • Technology • engadget.com
Weekend Entertainment | Another Success for Kayla Boye

Kayla Boye – who hails from the Mahoning Valley – has developed her own type of specialty stage production, and she excels at it.

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Apr 16 • 12:44 PM EDT • Entertainment • businessjournaldaily.com
Texas Rangers and real estate developer Vela launch sports-adjacent mixed-use firm RVX Ventures

Texas Rangers subsidiary, REV Entertainment, and developer, Vela, have launched a sports-adjacent real estate firm, RVX Ventures.

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Apr 16 • 10:12 AM EDT • Entertainment • sportsbusinessjournal.com
Pittsburgh hotel occupancy is at 60 percent for draft weekend
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Apr 16 • 9:47 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Four things to watch as RFK Jr. defends his health agenda on the Hill

Vaccines and turmoil at the agencies under his leadership are expected to be hot topics.

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Apr 16 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Largely secret donors pour millions into election that could tip Congress

Most of the almost $100 million raised to influence the vote, heavily favoring Democrats, comes from nonprofits that don’t have to disclose their donors.

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Apr 16 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Dodgers on Deck: Friday, April 17 at Rockies

After an off day Thursday, the Dodgers open a four-game weekend wraparound against the Colorado Rockies starting Friday night at Coors Field in Denver. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball in the series opener on Friday. Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano will be on the mound for Colorado. Friday game info

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Apr 15 • 11:55 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Dodgers vs. Mets game III chat

The Dodgers conclude their three-game series against the New York Mets on Jackie Robinson Day, looking to get a sweep and take five of six games on the homestand. Shohei Ohtani makes his third start of the season against right-hander Clay Holmes. Ohtani will only be on the mound on Wednesday, as Dalton Rushing is […]

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Apr 15 • 9:53 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Kansas Transfer Jamari McDowell Commits to Wake Forest

The Deacs have their 3rd addition of the portal with Kansas Jayhawk guard Jamari McDowell. McDowell is a 6-5 redshirt sophomore who averaged 3.3 points and 1.1 assists in 17 minutes per game for the Jayhawks this season. After redshirting in the 2024-25 season due to injury, McDowell was the 6th man for Kansas this […]

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Apr 15 • 9:42 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
From Science Fiction to Force Structure: Directed Energy Is Here

Directed-energy weapons are reshaping air defense by countering drone swarms at low cost and near-instant speed. This analysis examines their operational limits, strategic implications, and role in future force design.

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Apr 15 • 5:32 PM EDT • Science • smallwarsjournal.com
Marketing Daily - Top of the News: Brands Blur Lines Between Ads, Entertainment

Peloton has tapped "Heated Rivalry" actor Hudson Williams for a campaign that "Glamour " says borders on NSFW, thanks to the actor's "very short shorts."

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Apr 15 • 4:03 PM EDT • Entertainment • mediapost.com
PNC Gives Update on Private Business Lender Exposure

That's PNC Financial's exposure to private business lenders, including private-credit funds. The bank said that $7 billion of that figure is in the form of loans to private-credit providers, a focus of jittery investors in recent months. The remainder, $26 billion, is in the form of trade receivabl

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Apr 15 • 11:37 AM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Dow Jones and WSJ launch new sports vertical with live event

More media companies are leaning into coverage of the business of sports as a way to capitalize on the growing appetite for insights on the topic from business decision-makers.

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Apr 15 • 10:42 AM EDT • Sports • axios.com
High-Signal Publisher
Opinion | We Can Fix Healthcare Prices With Incentives

Americans don’t need less care; they need a system that prices care more rationally.

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Apr 15 • 10:07 AM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Is Swalwell the Straw That Broke Congress’s Back? | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 15

Plus, two of Jeanine Pirro’s deputies make a surprise visit to the Fed’s headquarters-renovation construction site

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Apr 15 • 7:01 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
The Unlikely Team That Ended One of the Longest Playoff Droughts in Sports

Despite starting the season at the bottom of the NHL standings, the reinvigorated Buffalo Sabres are heading to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2011.

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Apr 15 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • wsj.com
Political activist Abbie Hoffman was found dead in Bucks County on this week in Philly history

The 52-year-old who became a symbol of defiance spent his last few years in Bucks County, where he was found in the converted chicken coop he had been living in on April 12, 1989.

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Apr 15 • 6:01 AM EDT • Politics • inquirer.com
See how LSU’s coastal environmental science major produces successful graduates

The LSU Olinde Career Center’s outcomes data for last year’s undergraduate class revealed high starting salaries and an increased positive outcome rate for coastal environmental sciences. A positive outcome means a graduate has secured an opportunity such as employment or admission to graduate school within six months of graduating. CES graduates had a positive outcome...

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Apr 15 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • lsureveille.com
Board: Two Iowa mental health professionals had sex with former clients

Two state-licensed mental health professionals are facing disciplinary actions tied to allegations of having sex with former clients.

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Apr 14 • 6:34 PM EDT • Health • kcrg.com
How Canada’s Carney Used His Political Savvy to Win a Majority

In six months, the prime minister orchestrated the defection of five lawmakers to his side and won a special election.

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Apr 14 • 5:06 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Lebanon’s Death Toll Tops 2,100, Health Ministry Data Show

Lebanon’s health ministry said Tuesday that 2,124 people have been killed and nearly 7,000 wounded since the latest round of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The Lebanese authorities said the fatalities include 1,702 men, 254 women and 168 children.

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Apr 14 • 12:33 PM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Starr Vegas Development proposes $10B sports and entertainment district on the Strip

A newly announced $10B development planned directly on the Las Vegas Strip is being pitched as a massive, year-round sports and entertainment hub -- and as a potential contender for an NBA-ready arena.

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Apr 14 • 8:05 AM EDT • Entertainment • sportsbusinessjournal.com
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What Trump’s Deleted Social-Media Post Says About 2026 | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 14

Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales say they plan to leave Congress in the wake of sexual-misconduct allegations

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Apr 14 • 7:05 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Ending Relationships Over Politics Has Become Boring

We all need to calm down and relearn how to agree to disagree.

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Apr 14 • 6:16 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
EDC and Business Impact NW to host two free workshops on capital readiness for businesses

Submitted by the Economic Development Council.

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Apr 14 • 4:30 AM EDT • Business • sanjuanjournal.com
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College sports giant Learfield finalizing sale to private equity firm

Learfield, a leading college sports multimedia rights and technology firm, is finalizing a deal to sell a majority stake to private equity firm TPG.

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Apr 13 • 10:20 PM EDT • Business • sportsbusinessjournal.com
Canada’s Carney Secures Majority Mandate After Electoral Wins, Political Defections

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has secured a majority government, cementing his hold on power after electoral victories Monday night and defections to his Liberal Party caucus over the past six months.

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Apr 13 • 10:02 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Australian business sentiment crashes in March on worries about fallout from Iran war

Australian business confidence plunged last month by a magnitude only seen during financial crises as ​the Iran war gave rise to a global ‌oil shock, a survey showed on Tuesday.

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Apr 13 • 9:32 PM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Trump officials consider physician, a Fox News regular, for top vaccine post

Houman Hemmati is under consideration to lead the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. A final decision has not been made.

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Apr 13 • 4:53 PM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Insurers Stand to Gain Big Business From Data Centers

That's how much S&P Global Ratings estimates data centers could pay in insurance premiums this year. That number compares to $5 billion a year for the entire aviation sector, the ratings firm said in a report Monday. The firm estimates the total insurable amount of data-center assets at $2 trillion

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Apr 13 • 12:55 PM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk

Find insight on GSK, Sigma Healthcare and more in the latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector.

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Apr 13 • 12:34 PM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Delta Rolls Out New Business Class Suites in Premium Push

Delta Air Lines Inc. will introduce an upgraded version of its Delta One business-class suite, continuing the arms race by US carriers to offer plusher and plusher accommodations to win over high-spending passengers.

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Apr 13 • 9:00 AM EDT • Business • bloomberg.com
Meta Expected to Unseat Google as World’s Largest Digital-Ad Player

The owner of Instagram and Facebook has fueled growth with new advertising products and AI.

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Apr 13 • 7:00 AM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Watch: As AI Makes More Health Coverage Decisions, The Risks To Patients Grow

This year, executives from nearly every major health insurance company made the same declaration in calls with Wall Street analysts: Using artificial intelligence to make coverage decisions would help save them money.

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Apr 13 • 4:30 AM EDT • Health • ctnewsjunkie.com
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ENTERTAINMENT: Defuria - Los Angeles Business Journal

PACIFIC PARK ON THE SANTA MONICA PIER NAMES TIM DEFURIA AS DIRECTOR OF GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY AFFAIR Pacific Park on the Santa Monica Pier announced

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Apr 13 • 3:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • labusinessjournal.com
'Unbelievable' Liverpool star set for surprise exit offer

Hull City are keen on signing Andy Robertson if they get promotedis one of the two players who's guaranteed to be leaving Liverpool at the end of the current season.The Scotsman has been one of the Re...

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Apr 13 • 1:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten

Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.

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Apr 12 • 7:26 PM EDT • Sports • sportsbusinessjournal.com
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten

Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.

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Apr 12 • 7:26 PM EDT • Business • sportsbusinessjournal.com
Hungary Has Ousted an Autocrat

Viktor Orbán had support from Moscow and Washington, but not from his own people.

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Apr 12 • 5:53 PM EDT • Politics • theatlantic.com
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Cavs score vs Wizards. Injury report, regular-season finale highlights

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards end the 2025-26 NBA regular season season with a matchup at Rocket Arena. The playoffs await the Cavs.

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Apr 12 • 5:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Inside Vance’s Iran negotiations: No deal, but ‘friendly’ talks

Vice President JD Vance’s negotiations in Pakistan with Iran failed to end the war, but progress was reported on building goodwill.

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Apr 12 • 4:34 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
How Oklahoma Landed America’s First Aluminum Smelter in Half a Century

Aluminum makers EGA and Century plan to break ground this year on a facility that would more than double U.S. smelting capacity.

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Apr 12 • 11:00 AM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Video: Local business I-CYCLE teaches adults and children how to ride a bicycle
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Apr 12 • 8:19 AM EDT • Business • lansingstatejournal.com
Photos: Local business I-CYCLE teaches adults and children how to ride a bicycle

Photos: Local business I-CYCLE teaches adults and children how to ride a bicycle

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Apr 12 • 8:07 AM EDT • Business • lansingstatejournal.com
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Minneapolis public safety debate back in a familiar place: anger, political squabbling

The Minneapolis City Council’s rejection of Mayor Jacob Frey’s public safety commissioner renewed the angry divisions over policing that have characterized city politics in recent years.

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Apr 12 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • startribune.com
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.

President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.

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Apr 12 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Captain Clutch completes comeback, Mariners walkoff Astros 8-7

Mariners comeback from 5-run deficit

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Apr 12 • 2:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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RFK Jr. Once Touted Raw Milk. Now He’s Stopped Talking About It.

The health secretary has instead promoted whole milk, a politically safer choice, as he seeks to avoid “weird stuff.”

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Apr 11 • 7:00 PM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Mets reportedly calling up veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel
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Apr 11 • 12:56 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
High school sports a big focus

Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.

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Apr 11 • 11:19 AM EDT • Sports • freep.com
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High school sports a big focus

Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.

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Apr 11 • 11:19 AM EDT • Sports • lansingstatejournal.com
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The Growth of the Upper Middle Class, a Focus on Sperm Health and the Workers Shunning AI | WSJ Weekend Reads for April 11

Plus, a focus on sperm health, the workers shunning AI and making golf a family affair

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Apr 11 • 7:50 AM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout

Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world

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Apr 11 • 12:07 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Player Availability Report: #SKCvSJ

Player Availability Report is SportingKC.com’s look at the latest status updates around the team ahead of upcoming matches and is presented by Saint Luke’s. All details listed are from the league’s official Player Status Report that is submitted the day prior to the match. Sporting Kansas City is set to

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Apr 10 • 5:47 PM EDT • Sports • sportingkc.com
Exclusive | Trump Promises Mass Pardons to Staff Before Leaving Office

In a recent meeting, the president said he would pardon those within 200 feet of the Oval Office, according to people familiar with the remarks.

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Apr 10 • 3:18 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Al Roker stops 'Today' interview with 'Laguna Beach' star over wardrobe malfunction: 'Guys, on live television?'

'Laguna Beach' star handled a wardrobe malfunction that occurred on live TV like a pro Friday on 'Today.'

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Apr 10 • 2:28 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
How Political Differences Can Affect Golf Players Concentration on the Links and Beyond

A new study suggests political differences among golfers can affect concentration on the links—and perhaps in the workplace as well.

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Apr 10 • 2:00 PM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Crowd chants ‘Run again!’ to Kamala Harris, who said she’s ‘thinking about it’

The former vice president’s statement at a Black political convention was one of her most explicit signals yet that she could campaign again for president in 2028.

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Apr 10 • 1:44 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Construction Business Taking a Hit From Iran Conflict

Rising prices for fuel and materials such as aluminum push up costs just as they were stabilizing. ‘This war just trashed that.’

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Apr 10 • 1:00 PM EDT • Business • wsj.com
The Sperm Health Industry, Inside the World of MAHA Moms and America’s Record Low Fertility Rate | WSJ Health for April 10

Plus, a look inside the world of MAHA moms and why America’s fertility rate is falling

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Apr 10 • 12:55 PM EDT • Health • wsj.com
French government says au revoir Windows, bienvenue Linux

It's part of a broader European movement to reduce reliance on American tech.

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Apr 10 • 12:54 PM EDT • Technology • engadget.com
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk

Find insight on AstraZeneca, Novartis, Roche Holding and more in the latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector.

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Apr 10 • 12:47 PM EDT • Health • wsj.com
New health service lets Mountain Brook, Vestavia, Homewood residents skip the long waits

A new house call service is coming to Vestavia Hills, Homewood and Mountain Brook.

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Apr 10 • 11:46 AM EDT • Health • al.com
Watching Sports on TV Is More Annoying Than Ever. Can the Government Help?

The Justice Department launches an investigation into the NFL’s media universe. It’s a bigger riddle than football.

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Apr 10 • 11:45 AM EDT • Sports • wsj.com
WHO Says Iran Health System Is in Crisis, Commits $800,000 Emergency Funds

The World Health Organization released $800,000 from its emergency contingency fund to support the health response in Iran. Hanan Balkhy, a regional director for the United Nations agency, welcomed the current cease-fire but warned the health crisis in Iran was ongoing. “Humanitarian and health nee

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Apr 10 • 8:17 AM EDT • Health • wsj.com
SBJ Football: Taking stock of the NFL’s offseason business

The offseason isn't off for the NFL's business side, with a number of deals and other issues, such as an 18th game and media rights, pending after the draft. Also in this week's SBJ Football newsletter: Athletes First's NFL business trips for players and the Rams' pulling back on draft house.

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Apr 9 • 5:41 PM EDT • Business • sportsbusinessjournal.com
Weekend Entertainment | A Good Day for the Globetrotters

Tickets remain available for the Harlem Globetrotters show at Covelli Centre as part of the team's 100th anniversary tour.

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Apr 9 • 12:44 PM EDT • Entertainment • businessjournaldaily.com
Exclusive | Justice Department Opens Investigation Into NFL

Government officials have raised questions about whether the league is engaging in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers.

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Apr 9 • 10:27 AM EDT • Sports • wsj.com
Pitt’s philosophy program ranked No. 5 in the 2026 QS World University Rankings by Subject

The three Dietrich School units that make up the program continued its top-five streak, which dates back 10 years.

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Apr 9 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • pittwire.pitt.edu
Disney plans to cut 1,000 jobs, WSJ reports

Disney is planning to ​cut as many ‌as 1,000 positions in the ​coming weeks, ​many of which ⁠will be ​made in the ​company's marketing department, the Wall Street ​Journal reported ​on Wednesday, citing sources.

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Apr 8 • 8:34 PM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Exclusive | Disney Planning Layoffs Under New CEO Josh D’Amaro

The entertainment company is preparing to eliminate as many as 1,000 positions in the coming weeks.

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Apr 8 • 8:15 PM EDT • Business • wsj.com
Trump to discuss leaving NATO in meeting with alliance’s leader, White House says

The president, long a NATO skeptic, has been especially angry at alliance members in recent weeks for declining to take part in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

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Apr 8 • 6:49 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
New York Giants announce jersey numbers for incoming free agents

After an active free agency period, the New York Giants announced jersey numbers for their new faces on Wednesday.

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Apr 8 • 3:30 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Cuba Excluded Political Prisoners From Mass Pardon, Rights Group Says

Cuba’s release of more than 2,000 prisoners last week excluded regime critics and political prisoners, according to civil rights advocates.

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Apr 8 • 12:09 PM EDT • Politics • bloomberg.com
How the Journal Covered Trump’s 12-Hour Iran ‘Civilization’ Countdown

Plus, the White House decided to hang on to Kristi Noem’s $70 million jet.

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Apr 8 • 6:58 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk

Find insight on Gilead Sciences, Sovato and more in the latest Market Talks covering the health care sector.

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Apr 8 • 6:13 AM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Pat Fitzgerald was vilified, then vindicated. His truth comes out at last

Pat Fitzgerald opens up to USA TODAY Sports about his firing at Northwestern, hazing allegations and building a future with Michigan State football.

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Apr 8 • 5:46 AM EDT • Sports • usatoday.com
Republican wins runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress

Clay Fuller, a district attorney backed by President Donald Trump, defeated Shawn Harris in the deeply red district vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.

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Apr 7 • 8:37 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Dropping the Series Opener: Mets 4, Dbacks 3

The Arizona Diamondbacks dropped the series opener to the New York Mets on Tuesday, falling 4-3 in extra innings after squandering a late lead. Leading 3-2 into the eighth, the D-backs watched the game slip away as the bullpen allowed tying and winning runs against Jonathan Loaisiga and Paul Sewald. This felt like a painfully […]

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Apr 7 • 7:58 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Men Are Obsessed With Their Sperm Health, and Brands Are Cashing In

Wellness brands are fueling a growing demand for male-fertility products, selling supplements and sperm-testing kits.

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Apr 7 • 11:55 AM EDT • Health • wsj.com
Brenda Alexander has the latest in entertainment headlines:

Are Kim K & Lewis Hamilton dating? Lil Nas X may have caught a break in his felony assault case, and Stephen Colbert's replacement has been announced.

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Apr 7 • 11:08 AM EDT • Entertainment • fox5atlanta.com
SBJ Women’s Sports: On the ground at the Final Four, PWHL’s record night

Phoenix showed why it's a women's basketball town while hosting the Final Four, as SBJ's Women's Sports newsletters details. The PWHL is also building even more momentum with another record-breaking sellout, and data showing the colleges playing flag football.

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Apr 7 • 10:05 AM EDT • Sports • sportsbusinessjournal.com
Three Ways Trump’s Iran Deadline Could Play Out Tonight

Plus, Steve Bannon’s conviction for contempt of Congress is poised for dismissal.

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Apr 7 • 7:02 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Social Science Has a Replication Problem

And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, if it inspires self-correction.

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Apr 7 • 6:15 AM EDT • Science • wsj.com
Springfield's March business recap: Openings, closings, and more

Aside from openings and closings in March, it was a busy month for business and restaurant news. Here's a recap of anything you may have missed.

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Apr 7 • 5:11 AM EDT • Business • sj-r.com
Trump’s many threats of possible war crimes reach a crescendo in Iran

After more than a decade floating actions that might constitute war crimes, US President Donald Trump is threatening to make good on such threats in Iran.

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Apr 6 • 3:10 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Rams QB Fits: Ranking 2026 NFL Draft Quarterbacks

Ranking 2026 NFL Draft quarterbacks based on how they fit the Los Angeles Rams offense.

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Apr 6 • 12:54 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
AMC Entertainment Delivers Best Ever Global Revenue Mark for a 5-Day Easter Weekend, Led by THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE, Strong Merchandise Sales, and Solid Performances by Other Titles

LEAWOOD, Kan., April 06, 2026--AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC), the largest theatrical exhibitor in the United States and in the world, today announced that it delivered a record-setting performance over the 5-day Easter holiday weekend, achieving the highest combined global admissions and food & beverage revenue for the holiday frame in AMC’s 106-year history.

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Apr 6 • 8:20 AM EDT • Entertainment • finance.yahoo.com
Trump Says He’s Calling Iran’s Bluff In WSJ Interview | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 6

Plus, Jamie Dimon warns of higher inflation and interest rates from the Iran War

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Apr 6 • 7:03 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Embark on a science adventure at UW-Madison’s Science Expeditions

The community is invited to try hands-on activities at six Exploration Station hubs, tour research spaces, view Science Spectacular Shows, and attend lectures.

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Apr 6 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • wmtv15news.com
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