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I Don’t Blame NATO for Skipping Out on Our Greedy President’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Trump, whose most profound desire is to make money, is essentially running an extortion scheme.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Chucklefish on why Witchbrook has taken a decade to release
Donna Orlowski, the COO of Chucklefish, has explained why Witchbrook has taken so long to release. Back in 2016, the project was first teased. A year later, it was announced as Spellbrook, and then became Witchbrook in 2018. We’ve essentially seen the last decade fly by, but the game has still yet to debut. Orlowski gave some insight into the...
New 49ers CB's contract essentially guarantees him a roster spot
The San Francisco 49ers signed cornerback Nate Hobbs earlier this offseason. Let's take a look at the terms of his new contract for 2026.
NVIDIA DLSS 5 Takes 2D Frame and Motion Vectors as Input
The public is still learning more about DLSS 5 technology, and NVIDIA is gradually revealing additional details. In a conversation between YouTuber Daniel Owen and NVIDIA's GeForce Evangelist Jacob Freeman, we discover that DLSS 5 essentially takes 2D frames and motion vectors as input, applying its...
Partisanship and science
I recently participated in a symposium of the Denver-based Institute for Science & Policy, during which I had a “fireside chat” with Tony Mills of the American Enterprise Institute. Mills has written extensively on the politicization of science, and the two of us had a very enjoyable hour-long conversation on the topic. You can watch it below. The main questions we dealt with are why there is such a vast partisan gap in trust of science, and to what extent this is a unique moment. Mills helpfully brings a good deal of data to the discussion, as he did in this useful piece at Issues in Science & Technology. Tusk depends on reader support. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe Note this graph, drawing on a range of survey data to demonstrate partisan attitudes toward science since 1970s. As it demonstrates, there’s been a very sharp partisan divergence in confidence in science during the Trump Era, starting prior to the Covid pandemic. At least in part, we can attribute this to a rise in populist anti-science rhetoric embraced by Trump, his appointees, and those in his media orbit. But as the graph also shows, the partisan divide has existed in the past, and it’s not always in the same direction. The largest divergence in party views toward science prior to 2016 was in the 1970s, when liberals equated scientific achievement with the military-industrial complex and thus trusted it less. That era of scientific mistrust is often overlooked. Indeed, as Mills notes, the Moon landings (1969-72), which today are considered one of the last great moments of national unity, were experienced nothing like that at the time. There was sharp debate back then over whether the Apollo missions were worth the vast expenditures when the country had so much else to deal with. It’s outside the dataset, and we don’t have the partisanship lens for it, but the 1950s was another deeply anti-science decade, with critics of intellectuals and college professors alleging their ties to communism and their lack of commitment to basic American moral beliefs. This was the subject of Richard Hofstadter’s 1962 book Anti-Intellectualism in American Life, in which he quotes religious leaders like Franklin Graham: [In place of the Bible] we substituted reason, rationalism, mind culture, science worship, the working power of government, Freudianism, naturalism, humanism, behaviorism, positivism, materialism, and idealism. [This is the work of] so-called intellectuals. Thousands of these “intellectuals” have publicly stated that morality is relative—that there is no norm or absolute standard.… This fervor was heavily whipped up by Sen. Joe McCarthy (R-Wisconsin), although it’s clear that not all his fellow Republicans were on board with his red-baiting. What ended that era? The simple answer is the 1957 launch of Sputnik. Americans became afraid that they were losing to Soviet scientists, and suddenly university researchers and government projects were awash with funding. In our conversation, I asked Mills about the possibility of us having a Sputnik moment again that would rally the American public in favor of science today. Mills argued that the COVID-19 pandemic was essentially a Sputnik moment — a terrifying threat to all Americans that required scientific advances to address. But thanks in part to political polarization and the populist and conspiratorial leanings of Donald Trump, we got the opposite of a unifying moment. Many Americans turned against science, despite science actually stepping up in that moment. As we discussed in the chat, it’s not clear what scientists could or should be doing in this moment to increase faith in their work. As Mills notes, one of the chief complaints against scientists and professors is that they’ve become too political; scholars becoming even more political might not help them achieve their goals. This (mainly Republican-driven) anti-science era will end, of course, but it’s not clear what event will bring that about. Share
Small biz optimism flat amid opposing forces of better profits, worse sales expectations
Small business optimism was essentially flat month over month in February as deteriorating sales expectations canceled out improved profits from the previous quarter, the NFIB showed Tuesday.
Small biz optimism flat amid opposing forces of better profits, worse sales expectations
Small business optimism was essentially flat month over month in February as deteriorating sales expectations canceled out improved profits from the previous quarter, the NFIB showed Tuesday.
Initial Thoughts on the Vikings’ Free Agency Moves
The Minnesota Vikings were not big players in the first day of the ‘legal tampering period’ which has become essentially the first day of free agency as a torrent of deals are announced. The Vikings did make some big splashes in free agency last year, and the dead cap hits to clear those moves is […]
Bengals Legend Willie Anderson Shares Major Health Update After Kidney Transplant
For a man who spent his career protecting his quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals legend Willie Anderson just won the most important battle of his own life. After being diagnosed with kidney disease about a decade ago, Anderson recently underwent surgery.
Antarctica has a strange gravity hole and scientists finally know why
Gravity may seem constant, but it actually varies across the planet—and one of the strangest places is Antarctica, where gravity is slightly weaker than expected. Scientists have traced this “gravity hole” to slow, deep movements of rock inside Earth that unfolded over tens of millions of years. Using earthquake data to essentially create a CT scan of the planet’s interior, researchers reconstructed how the anomaly evolved and discovered that it strengthened between about 50 and 30 million years ago.
Motorola's Razr Fold price is finally confirmed, and it's... not as low as expected
The chances of seeing Motorola's first book-style foldable released in the US at $1,500 have essentially dropped to zero.
Is the PPPLF Still Encouraging Small Business Lending?
The Federal Reserve designed its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility to ease liquidity issues and support small business lending during the pandemic. The liquidity facility allowed banks to pledge Paycheck Protection Program loans as risk-free collateral during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis shows that, although the program has essentially ended, the positive effects on small business lending have persisted, particularly among small banks with lower liquidity, in keeping with the intent of the program.
Lindsey Vonn’s Olympic dream ends in violent downhill crash
Various broadcasts captured audio of Vonn crying, “Oh my God!” as a buoyant crowd grew essentially silent.
Michael Strahan Announces Health Update After Confirming Decision on FOXRetirement
A recent doctor’s visit for Michael Strahan sparked immediate concern across the NFL world. With his daughter already having won a battle against cancer, many would have been anxious about the news.
Sources: 5 teams to leave Main Street, join MLB
At least five teams are expected to leave their regional sports network, Main Street Sports, and join Major League Baseball, essentially shedding their once-lucrative local-media contracts, sources told ESPN on Monday. More are expected to follow.
Bob Iger Acknowledges Rivalry Between Entertainment & Parks To Drive Disney Profits, Says Both Have “Ability To Grow Nicely”
The CEO noted "a healthy competition ... in terms of which of those two businesses is going to essentially prevail as the number one driver of profitability."
Scientists Warn: This “miracle cure” works only by damaging human cells
MMS has long been promoted as a miracle cure, but new research shows it’s essentially a toxic disinfectant. While it can kill bacteria, it only works at levels that also damage human cells and beneficial gut microbes. Scientists warn that homemade MMS mixtures are especially dangerous due to wildly inconsistent dosing. The study calls MMS a clear case where the risks are high—and the benefits are effectively zero.
Sam Darnold Shares Blunt Health Update as Seahawks QB Addresses Personal Struggles Before Super Bowl
Sam Darnold isn’t sugarcoating anything heading into the Super Bowl after the Seattle Seahawks‘ 31-27 win over the Los Angeles Rams. The QB offered a blunt update while opening up about health and personal challenges.
Mysterious Health Issues Force 3 PGA Tour Pros to Exit $9.2M Tournament Midway
The 2026 American Express in La Quinta is already turning into a wild rollercoaster ride. World number one Scottie Scheffler leads the pack at 17-under par after two brilliant rounds.
How AI and politics dominated Davos
There are essentially two topics dominating conversations in Davos this week: AI and President Donald Trump.
Justin Thomas Issues Massive Health Update After Surgery Halted His PGA Tour Career
On a sabbatical from professional golf, Justin Thomas is recovering from a microdiscectomy he had back in November 2025. The 2-time major winner had been troubled with pain for a long time, and that hindered his abilities on the course.
Colorado’s wolves in the political crosshairs as Trump targets the state
A program to reintroduce the predators is essentially blocked, with Colorado leaders saying the state is being punished for jailing election denier Tina Peters.
2026 Best of Business
WBJ’s Best of Business awards are centered around one concept: referrals. Businesses will attract and retain new customers in all sorts of ways, but most will tell you the best way is to get your existing clients to do it for you. A recommendation from a trusted source goes a long way whenever a company leader is looking for a lawyer, an accountant, a place for lunch, a venue for a large event, or a fun place to take employees as a reward for all their hard work. Now in its 13th year, WBJ’s Best of Business awards are essentially recommendations from trusted sources for the organizations to best help your companies succeed. As we do every year, WBJ compiled this list of winners by asking our readers to vote in the various categories. From Nov. 1-28, more than 2,160 votes were cast. The top votegetters are the winners of this year’s 54 categories. To celebrate these winners and to meet the best of the best, I invite you to attend WBJ’s Best of Business awards event at 4:30 p.m. on Jan. 28 at the Beechwood Hotel in Worcester. Part celebration and part hyperactive networking event, the Best of Business awards is a unique experience in the local economic scene. Always a good time, the room is full of potential contacts, who can all help your business achieve that next level of excellence. You can register here. – Brad Kane, editor
Reilly Opelka Creates History With Impressive Feat Despite Brutal Loss
Reilly Opelka is coming in strong in the new season! The American, who has been eyeing his next title since 2022, kicked off at the Brisbane International. He took down Dane Sweeny in his opening round with a stunning straight-set victory, 6-3, 7-5, and set his sights on the quarterfinals.
California woman delivers healthy baby after ‘essentially unheard of’ ectopic pregnancy
Suze Lopez found out she was pregnant only days before giving birth, due to fetus hiding behind 22lb ovarian cyst
Leam Richardson Highlights Reading’s ‘Excellent’ Start In Plymouth Win
The Royals essentially had the game won 20 minutes in, thanks to a red card and flurry of goals.
How the AJC delivers news is changing. Our commitment to business news is not.
Our jobs remain essentially the same as generations of Atlanta journalists before us: to fairly and accurately cover our hometown.
Explore NASA’s most detailed map of the night sky yet
'We essentially have 102 new maps of the entire sky.'
Hochul signs several bills into law on artificial intelligence regulations
One piece of legislation aims to stop artificial intelligence from being used to essentially recreate people who have died.
We Think We Know What Geoff Keighley's Weird Desert Statue Is Teasing
The mystery of the weird desert statue may have been solved in advance of The Game Awards on Thursday, as some newly registered trademarks reveal a game and a logo from a familiar franchise that looks essentially identical to a symbol on the monolith.
2026 World Cup to feature three-minute hydration breaks in every half throughout tournament
Every game will pause for three minutes in the middle of each half, which will essentially split the match into quarters.
British ‘teatime’ is a very complicated business. Sometimes there isn’t even any tea
From “Mary Poppins” to “Downton Abbey,” afternoon tea is a quintessentially British ritual. It’s a tradition that started with a hangry duchess and expanded to hearty evening spreads for working-class tea fans.
Former Nintendo staffers explain why Nintendo ditched the "Nindies" name
Do you remember the “Nindies” term that Nintendo used to bring up on a regular basis? It was very prominent in the Wii U / 3DS era, and even the very early Nintendo Switch days. You probably don’t need us to tell you what it was for, but essentially it was an easy way to label indie games on Nintendo...