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How well have past GOTY winners sold?
We’re less than two months away from 2026’s The Game Awards, and what a year it’s been for fantastic games, including Resident Evil Requiem, Forza Horizon 6, Slay the Spire II, the Blood of Dawnwalker, and Control Resonant – just to name a few. So as we approach the end of the year, we thought we’d look back on our estimates for the GOTY winners of the past four years. In terms of revenue, Elden Ring (2022 winner), Baldur’s Gate 3 (2023), Astro Bot (2024), and Expedition 33 (2025) have generated a combined $3.8B via 73M copies sold: Let’s have a look, then. Elden Ring has generated $2B in revenue Elden Ring is a phenomenon in every sense. It’s sold a whopping 36.4M copies across Steam (50%), PS5 (35%), and Xbox (15% across console and PC). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring also just passed an astronomical milestone: $2B in revenue. While PlayStation and Xbox account for half of Elden Ring’s copies sold across these three platforms, they account for 57.5% of revenue. This – as ever – is due to regional pricing and the higher relative share of PC gamers in lower-priced markets. For example, around 17.4% of Elden Ring’s Steam copies sold were in China, where the game costs about 26% less than the price in the States. There’s an … interesting narrative going around these days that console gamers are only interested in ball-and-gun games and have the patience for little else. Well, Elden Ring’s impressive sales prove that is simply not true, and across all platforms. What’s more, over 9.8M people have played Elden Ring for over 100 hours, with nearly 3.5M people getting all of the achievements and trophies. For reference, 10.9% of Elden Ring’s PlayStation players have the platinum trophy, while 10.5% of players on Steam and 3.9% of Xbox players unlocked all the achievements. Git gud, Xbox players! Of the 1.5M people who played Elden Ring on PlayStation last month, 4% also played Dark Souls 3 last month, 4% played Bloodborne, and 3% played Sekiro. There’s those Soulsborne diehards for you. By many accounts, including my own, Elden Ring is one of the best games of all time. It’s an evergreen seller that will continue to be a cash cow for Bandai and FromSoftware for years to come. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring has sold another 2M copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox this year, generating almost $110M. This means it’s outperforming many of this year’s high-profile releases. Even Elden Ring’s standalone run-based PvE spinoff, 2025’s Nightreign, has sold 7.8M copies and generated $282M in revenue. Baldur’s Gate 3 is another billion-dollar-plus banger Another cross-platform phenomenon is Baldur’s Gate 3, which has sold 23.2M copies and generated over $1.2B in revenue. About 18.7M of these copies (80.6%) are via Steam, 2.9M via PS5 (12.7%), and 1.6M (6.8%) via Xbox. Around 1.3M folks on Steam bought BG3 before it hit 1.0. The PlayStation version launched about a month after the PC 1.0 release, while the Xbox version came four months later due to technical issues around developing local co-op on the Series S. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Across platforms, Baldur’s Gate 3’s monthly active users have never dropped below 2M, including 2.2M MAUs last month (68.5% on Steam, 21.9% on PS5, and 9.6% on Xbox). And it still regularly brings in 280K to 400K players every day: About 1% of BG3’s Steam player base has played for over 500 hours! That’s a little under 200K people. Astro Bot is also an evergreen seller, albeit a more niche, family one Astro Bot, 2024’s winner, has now sold 4.7M copies and generated $291M in revenue. The budget, including marketing, is almost certainly under $100M, given the small Japan-based core team and three-year dev timeline. You can really see why the tides are changing toward less expensive hubs. Astro Bot is the only first-party winner on this list, but follows other first-party winners of The Last of Us Part II (2020’s winner), God of War (2018), and Breath of the Wild (2017). Around 46.6% of Astro Bot’s copies sold have been physical, which is far higher than the typical game. This makes sense for a couple of reasons: There’s a large family audience for this one, and physical boxes are an item to wrap when giving Astro as a gift. Astro has collector value for the PlayStation core (this is nostalgia-fueled platformer celebrating PlayStation’s history) Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Astro is another one of those games that continues selling over time, regularly selling more than 100K a month. It’s sold around 1M more copies this year ($60M in revenue) and is a popular title with families. We can see this using the Alinea platform’s MAU crossover tool: Astro Bot’s top #2, #3, and #4 games by crossover in any given month this year are Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox – without fail. The #1 title every month, though, is Astro’s Playroom, a pack-in with all PS5 consoles. For every month this year, between 20% and 30% of Astro Bot players also played Astro’s Playroom that month. So the free pack-in is a noice funnel for converting players to a full paid product. Expedition 33 sells 8.7M despite Game Pass cannibalisation Finally, we have last year’s winner – Expedition 33. The turn-based-RPG banger has generated $366M via 8.7M copies sold, with 58.8% on Steam, 35.7% on PS5, and 5.5% on Xbox. Xbox’s share of copies sold is this low due to Expedition 33 launching on Game Pass, where 4.3M people across console and PC accessed the game. A little under 700K Xbox players used their subscription to play Expedition 33 this year. That said, the game’s 1.5-year Game Pass deal ended last week on October 16, and we’re already beginning to see a positive trend on Expedition 33’s copies sold via Xbox (but the jury’s still out!). There’s understandably a lot of French pride behind this one, as France is the game’s #3 market on both Steam and PlayStation. Vive la France! One thing that stood out to me is that the GOTY winners aren’t $300M Hollywood productions made in the US. They’re mostly mid-budget studios outside the traditional AAA cost centres. Lots to think about there. Also, good games sell well; who’d have thunk it!? And there’s a whole load of them this year, with GTA 6 still to come, too. GTA just made the cutoff point for the VGAs this year. What a coincidence! Loading... Cool links and other stuff Our physical games newsletter from Tuesday was picked up by GameSpot, Eurogamer, TweakTown, and a bunch of others. We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply right here on Substack/email, and we’ll set you up. Next week, we’ve got some exciting news regarding the future of our newsletter, so stay tuned! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
Nathanan Tantivasadakarn Named a 2026 Packard Fellow
Stony Brook University Assistant Professor Nathanan Tantivasadakarn has been named a 2026 Packard Fellow from the David & Lucile Packard Foundation.
Jimmie Johnson on the NASCAR business world: "It's a war"
Johnson made a name for himself a seven-time Cup Series champion, but he's now experiencing the 'race within the race' as a co-owner at Legacy Motor Club
Coast Business Council details changes and future plans
The Gulf Coast Business Council meeting provided changes as well as a look into the area's future in terms of economic development.
Coast Business Council details changes and future plans
The Gulf Coast Business Council meeting provided changes as well as a look into the area's future in terms of economic development.
Detroit Tigers Named a Landing Spot for Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki reaches free agency with Detroit's right field unsettled, and the Tigers are not the favorite. #Tigers
Launch Family Entertainment Names John Palumbo VP of Franchise Development
Launch Family Entertainment (Launch), a premier indoor family entertainment concept, has named John Palumbo Vice President of Franchise Development as the brand strengthens its leadership team and advances its national growth strategy. Palumbo brings nearly two decades of franchise development experience and an early-career foundation in sports and recreation operations. He began his career in athletic administration […]
Ohio State names Chandrasekaran dean of Fisher College of Business
The Ohio State University has named Aravind Chandrasekaran (AC) dean of the Max M. Fisher College of Business, pending Board of Trustees approval. Chandrasekaran has served as interim dean of the college since June 2025, building on more than 15 years as a faculty member, scholar and academic leader at the college. He will also continue to ho...
Health insurance gaps leave families struggling with costs, survey finds
A new survey from GoodRx finds that even people who have health insurance are increasingly underinsured.
Health insurance gaps leave families struggling with costs, survey finds
A new survey from GoodRx finds that even people who have health insurance are increasingly underinsured.
CBS names J.J. Watt lead NFL analyst, inks multiyear deal
CBS named J.J. Watt its lead NFL analyst and signed the Houston Texans legend to a multiyear contract, the network announced Thursday.
Caterpillar Names Derrick York to Lead Mining Business
Solar Turbines President Derrick York will lead Caterpillar Resource Industries on Nov. 1 as Denise Johnson moves to an advisory role ahead of retirement.
Henrico Business Watch: Business license filings Oct. 15-21, 2026
Henrico County reported the following business license filings with start dates during the week. The filings are listed alphabetically by business or trade name, followed by a registered address and business industry classification. Carlyle Temp Agency LLC, 4112 Townhouse Road, Apartment F, Henrico – Employment agency. MJ Henley Powerwashing LLC, 4048
Vespexx Recognized as Finalist for the Digital Health Hub Foundation Digital Health & AI Awards 2026 at HLTH
Vespexx Inc., an AI-driven femtech company, today announced it has been named a Finalist for the Digital Health Hub Foundation's Digital Health & AI Awards 2026, held at HLTH. Competing in the Rising Star track under the Women's & Family Health category, Vespexx advanced from the Quarterfinalist stage announced earlier this fall, standing out among more than 1,300 submissions.
Dr. Daniel Edney named president of national public health organization
State Health Officer Dr. Dan Edney will lead the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials for a one-year term while continuing to lead the Mississippi State Department of Health.
JJ Watt Named CBS Sports’ New Lead NFL Analyst in Multi-Year Deal
JJ Watt, the former defensive end, will take on one of the biggest on-air roles in sports after officially being named the new lead NFL analyst for CBS Sports, being handed the post following the exit of his predecessor, Tony Romo. Watt will continue to call CBS’ top games alongside Jim Nantz and Tracy Wolfson …
Iowa businesses recognized as top 100 US small businesses
Three Iowa businesses were named to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s 2026 CO—100: America’s Top 100 Small Businesses list. The CO—100 recognizes small businesses for their growth, innovation and commitment to their customers, according to a news release. Original Group Holdings, a woodworking equipment manufacturer in Britt, was recognized as a community champion. The company…
Dal researcher Dr. Rita Orji named Fellow of the International Science Council
Latest international recognition caps a remarkable stretch of honours and recognition for the Dal computer scientist, who has emerged as a global leader in responsible and human-centred AI.
HEALTH FIRST: Novant Health surgeon stresses early detection in breast cancer care
October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month, a time to highlight the importance of screening, early detection and advances in treatment.
Washington Huskies Basketball 2026-27 Season Preview
The Washington Huskies have something to prove as they enter their third season in the Big Ten Conference. Not to mention, their head coach, Danny Sprinkle, is starting to reach a point where he could be on the hot seat very soon. Washington Basketball hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 2019. That's a pretty …
Gasperini keen on Bayer Leverkusen’s Ben Seghir
Roma continues to look around to strengthen their attack. According to an exclusive report by calciomercato.it, one of the names being closely followed by sporting director D’Amico is Eliesse Ben Se...
Which college football team is the biggest disappointment of 2026?
Some of college football's biggest preseason contenders have stumbled ... hard. From Texas to Texas A&M and beyond, we want fans to name the biggest disappointment of 2026.
Chandler pub, central Phoenix brunch spot dinged for health violations
Jason Barry reports on the Valley restaurants that did not make the grade for October 21, including some popular chains and bars.
Abortion, ICE and socialism spark fireworks in swing state governor debate: 5 top moments
Republican Tom Tiffany pointed to a 20-week abortion limit while Democrat David Crowley declined to name a gestational cutoff in their debate.
Tigers qualify for states
by: Dom Gliozzi The 3A WPIAL Consolation match was more than a third-place battle, as the winner would advance to the PIAA State Tournament next week. With such high stakes on the line, third-seeded North Allegheny defeated fourth-seeded Upper St. Clair (at Sewickley Academy) on Wednesday afternoon by a 3-2 decision. The Tigers took the… More »
TENNESSEE VOLS FOOTBALL: Carter a Whitten semifinalist
For the second consecutive year, Tennessee senior linebacker Arion Carter has been named one of 20 semifinalists for the Jason Witten Collegiate Man of the Year award.
Santa Fe officials tout behavioral health unit changes; critics say more needed
Changes to the unit will include a new name and career ladder, but its budget and operating hours will be the same.
Trump says he called Google to rename Atlantic Ocean
President Donald Trump continues to raise renaming various bodies of water to include “America.” While at a rally in South Carolina, he said he called Google CEO Sundar Pichai to rename the Atlantic Ocean because they were “really great with the lake,” referencing when Google Maps relabelled the Gulf of Mexico to “Gulf of America.”
INTEGRIS Health joins Risant Health to improve healthcare in Oklahoma
INTEGRIS Health announced it will join Risant Health, a nonprofit created by Kaiser Permanente, to enhance affordable and accessible healthcare while maintaining its name and staff.
Only one female scientist named in GCSEs, research finds
A new study finds Rosalind Franklin is the only woman named in Key Stage 4 science specifications.
Only one female scientist named in GCSEs, research finds
A new study finds Rosalind Franklin is the only woman named in Key Stage 4 science specifications.
Korea Toray Science Foundation Names Two Science Award Winners
The Korea Toray Science Foundation has selected Professor Kim Sang-kyu of KAIST’s Departme
SonicFox Cancels Contract With Gaming Convention After Event Uses Likeness in AI-Generated Poster
Prolific fighting game player SonicFox has terminated their contract with a tournament in Norman, Oklahoma after organizers fed artwork of their mascot character into AI to generate a promotional poster for the event.
Resort Life Carts named national top-10 honoree
Madera-based Resort Life Carts earns a national top-10 honor from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for its business growth.
Florida's Thomas Haugh Named Preseason AP All-American
Florida's senior forward enters the 2026-27 season as the backbone of the nation's top-ranked team.
Brewers Name Expected World Series Game 1 Starter
Fresh off extensive rest, Milwaukee Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski is set to take the mound in Game 1 of the World Series.
MTSU named to Billboard’s list of top music business schools for 12th straight year
Middle Tennessee State University’s Department of Recording Industry has been named among Billboard’s top music business schools for the 12th consecutive year, continuing a tradition of preparing students for careers across the music industry.
MTSU named to Billboard’s list of top music business schools for 12th straight year
Middle Tennessee State University’s Department of Recording Industry has been named among Billboard’s top music business schools for the 12th consecutive year, continuing a tradition of preparing students for careers across the music industry.
RCTC and Bridges Health offering free dental and wellness services for veterans
The services will be offered Oct. 30, Nov. 6 and Nov. 13.
Exiled Vikings QB Named Starter Once Again
The Giants have made their call at quarterback for Sunday, and a familiar name for Minnesota Vikings fans is getting another chance.
NYSPHSAA boys basketball championships returning to Glens Falls
Harding Mazzotti Arena will host the 2028-30 tournaments, as the tourney moves back from Binghamton.
WoW Forever Beta Extended to Friday, Name Reservations Go Live Tuesday
The World of Warcraft Forever beta has been incredibly popular, but just like any other beta, it has to come to an end as the full launch approaches. But Blizzard has extended the beta by a couple of days.
Titans RB Julius Chestnut named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week
Tennessee Titans' Julius Chestnut earns AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors after a game changing block against the Colts.
Scott Eilert named head of K-State animal science department
His professional experience includes employment with Cargill, National Turkey Federation and Meat Institute.
Cavaliers Star Jarrett Allen Named Trade Target for Hornets
Should the Charlotte Hornets trade for Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen?
Should the pulpit be political? 2819 Pastor Philip Anthony Mitchell shares his view.
AJC producer Najja Parker asks Philip Anthony Mitchell about pastors’ role in politics and what could be lost if the Black church label disappears.
Integris Health to become part of Risant Health under new agreement
Integris Health announced it will become part of Risant Health, but it will keep its name, brand and medical staff.
Section V girls soccer tournament scores: Small school playoffs begin
Here are the latest scores, stats and recaps from the Section V girls soccer playoffs.
State health officer named president of national public health group
Mississippi State Health Officer Dr. Daniel Edney has been named the next president of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials.
Packers Named Trade Fit for $22 Receiver at Deadline
The Green Bay Packers are thinner than they would like at wide receiver. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting at 1-5 with Chris Godwin at wide receiver. It would make sense for the Packers and the Bucs to work out a potential trade, according to Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated. Verderame notes that the […] The post Packers Named Trade Fit for $22 Receiver at Deadline appeared first on HEAVY.
Scott Eilert named head of K-State animal science department
Alumnus and veteran animal protein executive has been with Cargill for 31 years and an adjunct professor in the department since 2010.
Kelly Ripa & Mark Consuelos Welcome Home New Puppy After Health Issue
The 'Live With Kelly and Mark' hosts also confirmed their new puppy's name.
Daniel Edney, MD, State Health Officer for Mississippi, Announced as Next ASTHO President
/PRNewswire/ -- The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) named Daniel Edney, MD, as the organization's 84th president. Dr. Edney,...
City of Edinburg Names Interim Police Chief
The City of Edinburg has named Lieutenant Orlando Garcia as Interim Chief of Police, succeeding Chief Jaime Ayala following his retirement on October 30, 2026. Lt. Garcia will officially assume leadership of the department on October 31, 2026.
Ob Hospitalist Group Named Newsweek AI Impact Health Award Winner for Best Health System AI Transformation
/PRNewswire/ -- Ob Hospitalist Group (OBHG), the nation's largest and only dedicated provider of OB/GYN hospitalist services and a leader in comprehensive...
What goes wrong? Why most entertainment, sports celeb brands fail, struggle to make profits - These might be key reasons
New Delhi, Oct. 21 -- Celebrity brands often attract attention, but turning that interest into profit is harder. Fans may celebrate a launch without becoming regular customers. A famous name helps people notice products while quality decides whether they return. Experts say fame alone cannot build…
Cruz Foam had a promising idea. Why couldn’t it make its sustainable packaging business work?
Cruz Foam's biodegradable packing material made from shrimp shells and food waste attracted wide attention and big-name investors, but the Santa Cruz-based company has closed up shop after what one former exec says were struggles to solve the full range of problems its customers needed packaging to address.
Steelers’ Mike McCarthy named one of best new coaches
Despite a strong start, McCarthy still ranked the lowest of the three new head coaching hires in the AFC North.
Xbox's next-gen console to reportedly cost up to $1,800, with a Helix handheld coming in 2027 and a full release in holiday 2028
There will be two next-gen Xboxes, a handheld and a more traditional console, and they'll reportedly cost up to $1,800.
Sun Prairie considers new massage business regulations after police receive complaints
Sun Prairie leaders are considering new regulations for massage establishments following complaints to police about activity at certain businesses.
Why this Glendale business owner is suing the U.S. government
Mario Ayala said he is trying to keep the business running, but the uncertainty and damage from the raid has taken a toll. Zach Prelutsky reports.
Why this Glendale business owner is suing the U.S. government
Mario Ayala said he is trying to keep the business running, but the uncertainty and damage from the raid has taken a toll. Zach Prelutsky reports.
Why this Glendale business owner is suing the U.S. government
Mario Ayala said he is trying to keep the business running, but the uncertainty and damage from the raid has taken a toll. Zach Prelutsky reports.
Why this Glendale business owner is suing the U.S. government
Mario Ayala said he is trying to keep the business running, but the uncertainty and damage from the raid has taken a toll. Zach Prelutsky reports.
Science Hill advances as four local teams fall in state volleyball tournament
Five local teams began their bids for state volleyball titles Tuesday in Murfreesboro, with Science Hill earning a five-set win to advance to the Class 3-A semi
Talks on Montgomery health care authority care authority continue
A recently proposed health care authority was the topic of discussion at Tuesday night's city council meeting.
Madera County small business honored as one of the nation’s best
Madera County's Resort Life Carts named a top 10 small business by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, winning a $2,000 prize.
💪 Chivas beat Necaxa and snap at América's heels
Chivas de Guadalajara earned a valuable 1-0 win over Necaxa on Matchday 13 of the Liga MX Apertura 2026 tournament, a result that lifts them into second place in the overall standings. An own goal bre...
Who do you look up to in Iowa politics? Iowa's Congressional District Debate
Who do you aim to emulate in Iowa politics? Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Christina Bohannan respond during KWQC's 1st District debate.
UAB opens Shelby Biosciences Research Building to advance health
UAB has opened the Shelby Biosciences Research Building, an eight-story facility named after former U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby, aimed at supporting health research and creating new jobs.
Jaguars Urged to Trade for $12M CB at Deadline
One of the biggest takeaways from the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ loss to the Houston Texans in Week 6 is that the team has a serious need at cornerback. As the Jaguars sit at 4-2 during the bye week, they will likely be considering trades to make them buyers. Perhaps the best name the Jaguars could add […] The post Jaguars Urged to Trade for $12M CB at Deadline appeared first on HEAVY.
Nearby business bracing for impact after PepsiCo plant closure announced
PepsiCo is closing its South Knoxville bottling plant, laying off more than 100 employees.
USPS says it's business as usual for the 2026 election
USPS says it's business as usual for the 2026 election
State Volleyball Photo Gallery – Summit vs. Science Hill, Class AAA First Round
The Summit High School volleyball team suffered a 20-25, 25-27, 25-19, 25-21, 16-14 loss against Science Hill in the first round of the Class AAA state tournament on Tuesday, Oct.
Man arrested for Miami Beach business burglaries, police say
A 57-year-old man is facing felony charges after police said he was responsible for two restaurant burglaries in Miami Beach, including one covered by Local 10 News.
Robbery turns deadly at Fairfield business
A man was found dead inside the business, according to police
DDA Launches Downtown Business Banner Program
DDA Launches Downtown Business Banner Program The Trenton Downtown Development Authority is giving local businesses a new opportunity to put their name on display in downtown Trenton. The DDA’s Downtown Banner Program will allow businesses to have their name displayed on a downtown banner for […]
TV5, Great Lakes Sports & Entertainment Network to air Pistons-Heat game Friday
The Detroit Pistons will play the Miami Heat on Friday, Oct. 23, and there’s some new ways to watch.
Danielle Jones named North Dakota SBDC's 2026 State Star
Annual award recognizes contributions to supporting small businesses across North Dakota
Massanutten operator announces leadership shifts
Charlottesville-based The Resorts Companies names Matthias Smith president as Steve Krohn moves to board vice-chairman
Guardians' Steven Kwan Named Trade Candidate For AL East Team
The trade rumors around Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan have started up again.
Larry Gies Pledges Another $100 Million To His Namesake Business School
Larry Gies welcomes Illinois business majors during a signing day ceremony at Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. (Photo by Fred Zwicky / University of Illinois Ur...
Larry Gies Pledges Another $100 Million To His Namesake Business School
The matching commitment could generate $200M for scholarships, student experiences & faculty support, bringing Gies’ B-school giving to $250M
Pirates Named Surprising Landing Spot For NPB Star Teruaki Sato
The Pirates' front office has some work to do this offseason to add to the team.
On3 Sports Honors Kentucky’s Lance Heard, Coach Will Stein in Midseason National Awards
Kentucky football head coach Will Stein has been named On3 Sports’ Midseason National Coach of the Year and offensive lineman Lance Heard a First Team All-American.
Is This a Make-or-Break Year for Amy Williams?
Amy Williams has spent a decade at the helm of Nebraska women's basketball. Her teams have made the NCAA Tournament more often over the last five years, but she has only made the second round once.
Bucs K McLaughlin Makes NFL History in Week 6 Loss
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have enjoyed some consistent placekicking from Chase McLaughlin since signing the journeyman back in 2023. On Sunday, he etched his name further in the all-time NFL record books.
Bucs K McLaughlin Makes NFL History in Week 6 Loss
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have enjoyed some consistent placekicking from Chase McLaughlin since signing the journeyman back in 2023. On Sunday, he etched his name further in the all-time NFL record books.
Sundar Pichai: Google’s Frontier Imperative, Compute Scarcity Dilemmas, Future AI Products and Businesses
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has little patience for doubts about Google’s willingness or capacity to compete at the frontier of AI. His company’s latest Gemini 4 Argon model — long-promised and recently delivered — beats OpenAI and Anthropic’s latest public models on coding, math, science, and knowledge-work benchmarks and has placed Google’s AI back among the world’s best. Amid chatter that Google was fine with good-enough lightweight ‘Flash’ models, Pichai pushed back hard against any suggestion that company is limiting its research ambitions. “We won’t do it any other way,” he told me in a Big Technology Podcast interview recorded this week at Google’s Mountain View headquarters. Pursuing cutting-edge research is costly for Google, requiring compute and chips that otherwise could be sold at a high markup by its cloud business. But Pichai said allocating resources to frontier AI development is “ground zero” for Google. “Our cloud business is at any given moment in time forgoing short-term revenues because we are making compute trade-offs to support frontier AI development,” Pichai told me. In our conversation, we discussed Argon (which Pichai says processed three times as many tokens as Gemini 3 in the 72 hours after launch), AI’s role in developing better models, the AI interface of the future, competition with OpenAI, Google’s partnerships with Anthropic and Apple, data centers in space, and the nature of his optimism. You can read the full conversation, lightly edited for length and clarity, below, or listen to it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or your podcast app of choice. Alex Kantrowitz: Google is back at the frontier with Gemini 4 Argon, which beats OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s public models on benchmarks spanning coding, math, science, and knowledge work. The conventional wisdom was that Google had given up on the frontier to focus on fast, good-enough models for its products. That was wrong? Sundar Pichai: Very wrong. Look, we are so committed to being at the frontier. It’s in our DNA. We won’t do it any other way. We’ve been thinking about the AI frontier for well over a decade now. The frontier is very dynamic. It’s very competitive. It’s very exciting. I couldn’t be more pleased with how Argon has come together. We took our time with it. We made sure we tested it safely and deployed it carefully. We took a bit longer than our other models, given its capabilities. Across the board, be it for agentic work, knowledge work, coding, creative tasks, Argon is one of the really good frontier models. The first 72 hours since we launched, it’s almost up to 25 trillion tokens used, which is about three times what Gemini 3.0 had in the first 72 hours. And we are capacity constrained as we are serving it. Excited, but there are always areas….. You know, the frontier is very dynamic, and you have to keep evolving the models. There are areas which we can see we need to improve as well. We’ll be at work on all of that as well. Which areas? On any given model, Argon would be across the board better at everything if you just look even two months back. But the space is so evolving. Even on coding, for example, there are pockets where we know we need to do better, and there’s clear feedback. We’ll make it better. The argument for standard models is that they’re already good enough to build great products, with the frontier valuable only for certain tasks. Meta built Muse with good models rather than the best, and Google could put standard models into Maps, Gmail, and Search. Why isn’t that sufficient? It’s definitely not how I have thought about it at all. We are deeply committed to driving the state of the art and actually pushing where this technology can go, all the way from transformers. That’s a journey we’ve been on. You will see us continue to do that. When you’re at the frontier, you get an earlier look into the emerging capabilities, earlier than others, which helps you better prepare for the future. We are fortunate to have a wide set of opportunities across consumer and enterprise. Some of our cloud customers, for sure, want the model at the frontier. The frontier models will be better at developing the next set of models in an era of recursive self-improvement. I would argue it matters there. Internally, we have definitely seen a steep point of inflection by deploying Argon to our developers. It definitely tackles problems which our previous models could not do. Being at the frontier puts you at the innovation frontier and helps you drive that as well. There is room for models of all sizes and capabilities. That’s why we did Flash, Flash-Lite, etc. I agree with you that you can develop very good product experiences with not necessarily the most frontier model, because they tend to be slower and more expensive too. But we care about the Pareto frontier, and we’re committed to doing all of that. You said developing frontier models gives you a look at what’s coming. What do you see on the horizon? What makes this moment so exciting is you build something which you think is a culmination of months of work, and you put it out. You already see clear headroom ahead. We’ve all been working on these agentic, long-horizon capabilities, but clearly the frontier is going to have multiple of these agents working together to do things. That’s an example of an exciting paradigm underway. It’s also clear to me that users, both in consumer and enterprise, will have access to some multi-agent framework for them, working all the time doing things. It feels like a moment of infinite possibilities. Sergey Brin said one of Argon’s core innovations was relying more on the model to help develop the model. Yet incidents involving OpenAI’s bots breaking containment and Google’s bots accessing a site they shouldn’t have suggest these systems still aren’t perfectly aligned. Isn’t there reasonable cause for concern about accelerating toward recursive self-improvement? There are three parts to your question. Let’s first talk about RSI itself. You’re right, Sergey mentioned RSI being a critical contributor as we are developing Argon. But to be very clear, today, in a continuum, we are pretty far from the end state of RSI or something like that. The right way to describe it is you have RSI loops along with AI researchers in various aspects of model development. You almost have agents helping AI researchers in some automated way work together to build these models. It’s good to at least understand where we are today, and it’s super exciting. I expect that continuum to keep making progress as we go into next year. The second question is around safety. Security comes from defense in depth. You’re talking about alignment, obviously. We all are doing a lot of work to make sure the models are as aligned as possible. But it’s an active area of research, and there are clear gaps. That’s not the only thing we rely on. You have the work you do on alignment, but beyond that, we put a lot of effort into real-time monitoring as these models are working. Making sure you have good telemetry into what’s happening so that you can intervene in real time if you see unexpected behaviors. How you do that, the architecture with which you do that, how you make sure it’s all sandboxed and isolated in a way that it can continue doing its job during real-time monitoring — these are all areas of investment. Obviously, when we deploy these models, giving customers, enterprises, control, both with real-time monitoring, but their ability to decide where they deploy, what type of data which models ever have access to, etc. All that work is very, very important, and we are doing a lot of that. As an industry, we need to constantly up our game and take the time to do all this stuff, including dedicating the compute required to make sure you can safely deploy these models. The third part is: Is it all enough? This is why there are a lot of conversations in the industry, and I think it’s reasonable to be worried. The right way to approach something you worry about is early on thinking about what more we can do. As an industry, you’re definitely seeing increased levels of work on alignment, testing for safety, etc., as we deploy these models. The next step would be developing better standards so there are cross-industry standards of how we do these things, including the ability to evaluate using independent evaluators. If you look at areas like financial controls, we have accounting standards, we have independent auditors. Those are all the next natural steps for us as an industry to work toward, and regulation will end up playing a role as we go through all of that as well. Google pursues both language models and world models, while some other AI companies like OpenAI have focused more heavily on LLMs as the path to AGI. Why is world-model research important to you? As humans, you obviously perceive the world around you, and you’re taking all those inputs. Making sure these models are able to understand the laws of physics, simulate the world in high fidelity. All that, I think, are key enabling blocks for intelligence. We are working across all possible applications of this. Take an area like robotics. It’s not an accident: If you look at embodied reasoning benchmarks, Argon is state of the art. That all comes from our experience building world models. Inherently, I would expect there will be architectures which will converge all of this in the future. But for us, we view this as, today, this jagged frontier that is intelligence. We want to be at the frontier of all the possible approaches, and that will help us both drive better research, better insights, and develop a much better AGI model, is how we think about it. Some people argue Google should focus on selling its computing resources rather than using them for AI research. Cloud wants to sell compute at a high markup, while researchers need a very big computer to build the best models. How do you balance those demands? Ground zero for us is making sure we are investing in the compute that’s needed to be at the AI frontier. In 2015, I set the company to be AI-first. AI is that key horizontal ingredient across everything we do, all the way from Search to Cloud to Waymo. That is ground zero for us, making sure both for research and developing the models that we have enough compute needed. Beyond that, we have these independent businesses which each have their own long-range plans. They’re using those long-range plans to project forward, and we plan for compute for all of them. The cloud team, they have a business and they have a projection and they have demand signals. They have committed contracts. With that help, we can plan on a long-term compute trajectory for them. We’re fortunate to have this wide set of opportunities. There’s no company in the world which isn’t making trade-offs at any given moment in time. But the first principles we operate on is making sure we have enough compute to invest in the frontier, and that’s non-negotiable, and everything else works on top. Remember, we are building our own compute, our own data centers. There are long lead times. The compute we have today is a function of decisions I made in 2024. Even if you think back to a year from today, last year the agentic coding takeoff hadn’t happened. Today, obviously, when you sit and look at anything, everyone is short—not just us, other companies—and everyone wishes you had two times what you had planned for. That comes with the territory. At any given moment in time, we are planning for what we would need two to three years out in the future. You’re going to find some decisions you make may look suboptimal two years out, depending on where the state of the art is. I don’t spend too much time thinking about it. The way I think about compute allocation is making sure Google DeepMind, both for research and frontier model development, is cutting edge in terms of compute access. After that, we plan for all our businesses. It’s great we can provide our compute to other people too, like we have done. It allows us to scale that up, get real tests for it in the widest application set possible, test it in the real world, and make sure we are at the cutting edge of technology at every layer of our AI stack as well. Ben Horowitz relayed on a podcast that Andy Jassy had said compute was sold out until 2028. Are you seeing the same thing? If today a customer is coming out and asking us for compute in ’27, that is incredibly difficult to do. Even last year we went out and leased some short-term compute to accommodate some customers and help them out. But yes, we are all dealing with similar timelines. Every major technology shift seems to involve overbuilding, from railroads to fiber. Do you think that’s happening here? It depends on the time frames you’re looking at. This level of build, if I take a long enough time frame, it makes complete sense to me. We are at early stages of the most consequential technology ever, and this is not like fiber. It’s not dark. We are using it. We are capacity constrained on a daily basis. The applications, the underlying technology is improving rapidly. But running a company, the way I work through the moment is you look at your demand signals. You look at your committed revenue opportunities that you’re getting in the form of contracts. You balance that with the underlying technical capability, or internally you balance how we are using it internally, the model trajectories. Based on all that, you take a disciplined approach—a confident, aggressive, but disciplined approach—to plan out compute. But when you talk about the broader economy as a whole, you’re having people operate with various levels of risk. I focus on what I can control as a company and plan through it. If your question is, can there be an overbuild? Yes, because you can have some constrained components. Remember, what matters is a set of everything you need to build out that compute. Memory, electricity, electricians…. Land. Like 2,000 components or more. You could get constrained at some point. There could be things which cause bottlenecks, and then you could have overbuilds. There could be external shocks to the economy. There are macro risks. All that is possible at any given time. But am I confident that the compute we are planning for, we will have uses for it given enough time? Absolutely, yes. I was in the room when you said AI would be as profound as fire and electricity. If you believe that, shouldn’t you give researchers the biggest possible computer, even at the expense of today’s cloud profits? We’re all doing some form of that. Our cloud business is at any given moment in time forgoing short-term revenues because we are making compute trade-offs to support frontier AI development. What you’re seeing is true already. But you want to be thoughtful. Even our AI researchers have some constraints, which are also good. That’s what inspires creativity. That’s what helps you come up with a more efficient algorithmic breakthrough, maybe to use less memory. What we are committed to is to invest what’s needed to stay at the frontier. OpenAI President Greg Brockman told me a few months ago that the ideal AI product might have no interface at all—just as natural as conversation. What do you think the interface looks like in the age of AI? Computing historically has been humans adapting to computing. With AI, it’ll be the other way around. The technology will adapt seamlessly to how humans live and go about their day-to-day life. You want to be able to speak to that AI when you want to. It has context. It can be persistently running somewhere, give you continuity. You’re not dealing with a lot of complexity. It’s natural. All that makes sense to me. That doesn’t mean it won’t have any interface, however. Nowadays, even on my phone, Gemini voice models are so good. I can just press the microphone button. I can just ramble. That’s why we call it Rambler. I can ramble. It intelligently corrects with my personal context. Even my friends’ names, weird names, it gets it right, even if it first guesses it wrong. It’s amazing. I’m not going in, backspacing, editing once I finish saying it. It’s remarkable how good it’s gotten. But there are going to be moments you will need an interface. You may want to entertain yourself. You may want to watch a video. You may ask your AI to create something, and you want to watch it, consume it. The way I think about it is, you want it to be as seamless and as natural as possible, and that you are not doing the hard work adapting to whatever the interface is. The technology is adapting to how you’re working at any given moment in time. When I asked Sam Altman about competition from Google, he argued that OpenAI was building AI-native products and implied Google was bolting AI onto existing ones. Do you accept that framing, and can a “bolt-on” compete with an AI-native product? First of all, it’s a very dynamic moment. We are all pushing each other. OpenAI has pushed us as a company too. This is not just we are doing something to them. Far from it. Yes, Google went into its own version of a code red too. In the AI moment, all of us have to respond with varying levels of urgency at any given moment in time. We are constantly building new products as well. Gemini was built from the ground up as a product—the Gemini app I’m talking about. Or tomorrow, as all of us are adapting to agents, are you bolting agents onto ChatGPT, or are they building it natively? How would you think about that? You can always put these questions back. I don’t think of it that way. I think of it as you want to build world-class product experiences that are AI-native and they are winning. Some of it is adapting products, some of it is rethinking new experiences. They will all be part of how you approach this moment. How do you expect to make money from these AI interfaces? If an agent recommends a product and I buy it, should it take a cut of the sale, even if that’s disclosed? I’m going to put enterprise aside. Consumers are going to increasingly value this technology. Take software developers today. Developers are willing to pay for these coding models because it really helps make them more productive. Nobody would want to code the way they were coding three years ago, or even the same time last year. When you’re delivering value, there’s value to be had. I’ve never seen examples where consumer products really scale to billions of users, where people are using it intensely, and haven’t had monetization to go along with it. If you’re providing value to people, there is inherent value to be had. The nature of it may change. You’re asking a scenario in which agents are doing stuff for you. At the end of the day, you will have commercial needs. The agents need to fulfill those commercial needs. The providers on the other side are going to see value in that. There’s going to be some mechanism by which it gets fleshed out. That’s what an efficient system does. But what matters is that you’re building those world-class consumer experiences. I promised myself one product feature request: Can you make Gemini-powered search in Gmail as good as searching Gmail through ChatGPT? What’s going on here? One of the exciting things we announced recently is the unified Gemini agent for enterprise, and we’re bringing that to consumers. These are persistent agents which run 24/7 in the cloud. We’re spinning up a micro VM effectively for every query, and from the runtime, the harness, the model—it’s all a headless service. It’ll work everywhere, and it has your context with you. You can address this agent whether you’re in Workspace, in Search, in Gemini. Agents are going to drive this unification from a customer experience, which people are looking for. When you have a broad product portfolio and you’re moving forward fast, there are always areas where you’re moving forward faster than some other areas. That’s valid feedback. But we are putting a lot of time and effort into making sure, as we build out our agentic experience, that unification and that capability works well across all these services. People have asked where Google’s equivalent of Muse or Dots is. Do you anticipate creating a new product to compete with them? Our goal with Gemini is to be a personal, proactive, and powerful assistant. That’s what we are working toward. You saw us describe the early versions of it at Google I/O this year with Spark. Effectively, already, if you open the Gemini app as a Pro or an Ultra user, you see Chat and Task, and they start giving you that agentic experience. With Argon now, that capability is dramatically accelerated. What we announced recently in our enterprise event, we are bringing that to consumers as well. Soon in Gemini, you will be able to ask something, and it’s a continuum. You don’t need to think about whether you’re asking a chat or an agentic task. It’ll just automatically do the right thing, and it can work persistently in the background securely and get things done for you. Already, empirically, when I look at what’s coming into Gemini in our app, last year you would have tagged them and most of them would have been chats. But a steadily growing percentage is already agentic tasks in Gemini. Yes, we are going to bring personal agents to our consumers. It’ll work in the Gemini app. It’ll work in Google Search. It’ll work in Gmail. You can address it, call it, etc. We want to make sure we’re getting it right. It’ll be powered by Argon, and we are very excited to bring it to our users. Google has invested and committed tens of billions of dollars to Anthropic. What do you see in Dario Amodei that makes you want such a deep investment and partnership? Very early on, when we looked at the founding team of Anthropic, it was very clear to us this was a world-class team which was involved in some of the earliest GPT models. We were quickly able to assess that they would be at the frontier. We’ve always tried to identify and partner with companies which would be at the cutting edge of technology. We’ve done that with SpaceX. We’ve done that with Anthropic. That’s what we saw, and we had a chance to partner. Is your partnership with Apple to license Gemini for Siri expanding, contracting, or standing still? For both us and Apple, that partnership was about translating the capabilities of AI into better experiences for users. I thought Apple has done a phenomenal job of incorporating—they customize these models and build it into Siri—and it’s been great to see the reception. We are committed to doing more. You’re going to do more with them? There’s nothing specific to comment, but it’s a partnership. It’s working well. What have you learned so far about the feasibility of data centers in space? It’s a very exciting project. Projects like this remind me—I still recall that moment in the desert for the DARPA Grand Challenge, watching the Stanley car compete in it, which ended up being the basis for Waymo. With all these technologies, you’re at a moment in time where it looks a bit like sci-fi, but 10 to 20 years down the line, it’s actually working in a meaningful way. I feel the same in space. We’ve always believed in betting big on these technologies. Quantum has been a great example of it. We’re probably 10 years into the journey. Waymo, we are almost 20 years into the journey. Space, we are two to three years into the journey. It’s clear to me that it’s an approach which will make a lot of sense in the future. Being in sub-synchronous orbits with 24/7 access to the most abundant form of energy we have access to will make a lot of sense for this exponential increase in compute that we are going to need. Having said that, this is a challenging project. The team has disciplined milestones. It was a super exciting milestone to send the TPUs up to space. Sometime, as we are speaking, we are expecting a “hello world” moment from them. I look forward to seeing that happen, and we’ll continue investing here too. You previously said 25% of the code written within Google was written by AI. What’s the number today? That number in our world today is meaningless in the sense that every part of what we now touch is influenced by AI deeply. What we are tracking with Argon, for example, it’s been a point of inflection. People are using Argon to really go tackle complex projects, including projects which affect millions of lines of code. In the four weeks since we have launched Argon, we have seen a 30% increase in CLs, and more importantly, almost a similar increase—a one-third decrease in rollbacks. People are writing code more productively and better code with it. We are tracking it with newer metrics now. How are you dealing with opposition to data centers? If you can’t build in the U.S. the way you want to, where else do you go? We’re very committed to building our data centers very responsibly. When I look at our largest data centers in some of the communities where we have been the longest, I visit them, I talk to people. There are people who come and tell us their kids have gone to college because of our investments in these communities, and we’ve grown in those communities. To me, this is about doing it right. Engaging with the communities early, doing it transparently. We are committed to making sure we are bringing incremental power, and we cover 100% of the cost of our power needs for these projects. It’s understanding the impact on neighborhoods and making sure you’re working thoroughly to address them. Done rightly, you can continue making progress. But we are constantly taking feedback into account. I do worry not everyone operates the same way. People have been surprised by data centers showing up in their backyard. Those are all important. As an industry, we should continue to do better. But part of the reason, in a 20-year time frame, we are thinking about things like data centers in space is making sure we are able to put these data centers where maybe the trade-offs will be different. What unproven area of AI is Google working hardest to crack? Is it continual learning—getting models to keep updating after release—or something else? There are multiple parallel paths. You saw with Argon we have a million output tokens. With our Gemini models early on, we had a one-million context window on the input side. These are all examples of breakthroughs we are constantly working on. How do you think about synthetic data? How do you think about continual learning? How do you think about more efficient architectures? We do dedicate a meaningful percentage of our compute to these research bets too. It always goes hand in hand, including our world models. Those are all bets we are placing. Sometimes, as part of these bets, there are ideas that emerge which just make their way into the mainline models. Maybe we don’t fully talk about it, but we have multiple steps in these areas. Working in technology requires optimism that building something will improve the world, but those bets can leave real consequences when they fail. I recently returned to a town in El Salvador where enthusiasm for Bitcoin had given way to unfinished construction and something resembling a ghost town. How do you maintain the optimism you spoke about in your Stanford commencement address while accounting for those risks? I genuinely have a deep conviction that improving technology and improving access to technology makes people’s lives better. It’s been my personal experience in my life, out of which comes that deep conviction, optimism. But with that, I’ve always felt humanity’s journey is always about working hard to harness that technology to make it work well for society. The optimism is not an optimism that you just build whatever you want, whenever. You work hard to make sure you’re building technology in the service of humanity, to make the human condition better. That’s got to be the defining goal as we are approaching it. With that framework, I’m very, very optimistic. We are in very early stages of the kind of progress that we are going to see on many areas. We’re all talking about areas like healthcare. A lot of the progress is ahead. The ability to make things in a fundamentally cheaper way on many things where things have been getting expensive for a long, long time, discovering new materials, etc., which really bend the curve—it’s tough to step today and understand the impact of all that, but they’re going to be very profound. I’m very optimistic, but we have to be rightfully concerned about all the ways this technology can go wrong. Sundar, I know you don’t do many of these. Thank you. Thanks, Alex. Appreciate it.
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