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U.S. Senate votes to advance $70 billion funding plan for ICE, Border Patrol
Two Republicans - Senators Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski - opposed the measure.
Romanian Cabinet Loses Parliamentary Majority as Top Party Quits
Romania’s biggest political party quit the government after disagreements over unpopular austerity measures, leaving Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan in charge of a minority cabinet.
Senate Republicans bypass Democrats to advance $70bn ICE and border patrol plan in ‘vote-a-rama’– US politics live
Republicans deploy measure known as budget reconciliation to push through plan without backing from Democrats during lengthy late-night vote
Va. lawmakers OK governor's tweaks to major energy bills, reject health and labor bill amendments
The amendments that lawmakers accepted to their bills will be incorporated before the measures become law. The ones that were rejected and sent back to Spanberger have an uncertain fate. She can choose to sign them as is, or veto them.
Arizona's Petrified Forest Is Home To The World's Largest Concentration Of Petrified Wood
The region’s unique geological history is to thank for the bumper crops of fossils, but they’re not the only ancient treasures to be found here.
Jordyn Tyson injury history: Why ASU WR's lingering health issues could impact draft stock
Here is a complete history of Tyson's injuries during his collegiate career, and how it may affect his draft stock.
Senate takes key step toward funding ICE and border patrol with only GOP votes
With Congress still at a stalemate over how to end the Department of Homeland Security shutdown, Senate Republicans took a key step to tee up a party-line measure funding the most controversial immigration programs — and eventually reopen the government completely.
Senate rejects measures meant to lower the cost of gas, groceries
Senate Democrats, in a fierce political battle over immigration enforcement funding, forced Republicans to vote on measures meant to lower costs.
WHO reports measurable health impact in 2025 amid transition to new strategy
The World Health Organization (WHO) today released its Results Report, highlighting measurable improvements in people’s health worldwide in 2025, despite funding cuts affecting both the organization and the broader global health sector.
Virginia follows California, approves ballot measure to redistrict mid-decade
It’s been less than six months since California voters approved a new congressional map that could enable Democrats to flip as many as five House seats now held by Republicans. Now, Virginia is following the same playbook.
Measure to legalize sports betting fails in Oklahoma Senate
A measure that would legalize sports betting in the Sooner State failed to pass the Oklahoma Senate.On Tuesday, Sen. Bill Coleman filed new bill language throu
$28 billion and counting: Europe tallies the cost of another energy crisis
The European Union has unveiled a raft of planned emergency measures to cushion its economy from soaring energy costs.
Leaker: Apple to Downgrade iPhone 18 in Two Ways
Following the emergence of a rumor that Apple is planning to downgrade the iPhone 18 to cut costs, further detail has emerged suggesting that display and chip specifications will see downgrades. Earlier this week, the leaker known as "Fixed Focus Digital" said that the iPhone 18 features "certain manufacturing downgrades" that bring it more into line with the low-cost iPhone 18e model. The decision is said to be "a cost-cutting measure".
With Midterms Coming Up, G.O.P. Is Bogged Down in Congress
Republican majorities are at odds on big issues as the Senate resorts to extraordinary measures to pass homeland security funding over a Democratic blockade.
Fermat's Last Theorem: still a must-read about a 350-year maths secret
Simon Singh's exploration of mathematical proof – in particular Pierre de Fermat's last theorem – remains an absolute treasure, almost three decades after it was first published
The Universe Is Expanding Too Fast and Scientists Can’t Explain Why
The most precise measurement yet shows the Universe is expanding faster than expected, deepening the Hubble tension. The result hints that something may be missing from our current understanding of the cosmos.
Ancient DNA reveals a hidden Neanderthal group frozen in time
A remarkable genetic breakthrough has uncovered what may be one of the clearest snapshots yet of a Neanderthal “community” living together 100,000 years ago in what is now Poland. The findings reveal that these individuals shared genetic ties with Neanderthals spread across Europe and the Caucasus, hinting at widespread ancient lineages that later disappeared.
Proposed ban on sports prop bets dies amid state budget woes
State lawmakers voted Tuesday morning to remove a proposed ban on prop bets from Senate Bill 131, a larger sports gambling reform measure.
Walz: ‘Next Democratic president better figure out a way to get universal health care’
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) advised the next Democratic president to focus on passing universal healthcare, a policy measure that has been hotly debated within the party in recent years. “We have t…
Sharon Tucker Named Orlando Health Endowed Chair in Nursing
The prestigious appointment from the UCF Pegasus Partner will bolster Tucker’s nationally recognized research focused on helping practitioners and patients thrive.
ASU geosciences professor named Guggenheim Fellow
S.-H. Dan Shim, a professor of geosciences at Arizona State University's School of Earth and Space Exploration, has been named a 2026 Guggenheim Fellow by the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, recognizing his interdisciplinary work bridging earth science and astrophysics.
Warsh vows to keep monetary policy independent of politics
STORY: :: Fed chief nominee Warsh vows to keep monetary policy independent of politics:: Washington, D.C. / April 21, 2026:: Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chief nominee“Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation's interest. Their decision is the product of rigor, deliberation and unclouded decision-making. And as Senator Warren said, I do not believe that independence of monetary policy is threatened when elected officials state their views on rates. Fed independence is up to the Fed." // :: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Ranking Democrat on Senate Banking Committee“So, independence takes courage. Let's check out your independence and your courage. We'll start easy. Mr. Warsh, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?”WARSH: “Um, we try to keep politics, if I’m confirmed, out of the Federal Reserve.”WARREN: “I’m just asking you a factual question. I need to know. I need to measure your independence and your courage.”WARSH: “Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago.”WARREN: “That’s not the question I’m asking. I’m asking did Donald Trump lose in 2020?”WARSH: “And I’m suggesting to you in 2020…”WARREN: “I’m suggesting you can’t answer that.”WARSH: “… the Fed had a huge inflation problem, and you certified the election…[crosstalk]… let’s keep the politics out of monetary policy.” //WARREN: "Just one little place where you disagree with Donald Trump.”WARSH: “Well, I do have a disagreement actually, Senator, with the president. I think even this morning, he said that he thought I was out of central casting. I think central casting, I'd look older, grayer, maybe show up here with a cigar of sorts.”WARREN: “Quite adorable. But, you know, we need a Fed chair who is independent. That's the only way we preserve the independence of the Federal Reserve. If you can't answer these questions, you don't have the courage and you don't have the independence.”In a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee that quickly hinted at major changes to come at a Warsh-led Fed, the 56-year-old lawyer and financier blamed the central bank for an inflation surge in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to hurt U.S. households.Warsh's hearing quickly turned contentious. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed Warsh on his independence and "courage", saying President Donald Trump had made clear Warsh would be his "sock puppet".
🚨 Confirmed line-ups: Athletic and Osasuna must win
San Mamés opens its doors this Tuesday, April 21 (7:00 PM) for a highly even clash on Matchday 33 of LaLiga EA Sports. Athletic Club and CA Osasuna face off separated by just one point in the standin...
Virginia Ballot Measures Special Election 2026 Live Results
See live results from the 2026 Virginia Ballot Measures Special Election. Follow live outcomes as votes are added up on Election Day.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
These digital games are teaching players about the world's most fragile ecosystems
As Earth Day highlights the importance of protecting the planet, a pair of digital learning games from Arizona State University’s Ask A Biologist is helping people move from awareness to action in their everyday lives.
Asphalt is everywhere; but is it bad for our health?
If you piled all of Phoenix’s pavement into one spot, it would be enough to cover San Francisco four times over.Roads, parking lots and other paved surfaces blanket a lot of land — an estimated 40% of Arizona’s capital city.
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
Astronomers measure the power and speed of black hole jets for the first time
Scientists for the first time have measured the instantaneous, mind-blowing power of jets blasting from a black hole.
Amendment 54: New Opportunity: A.12 HAMAQ Science Team
Hemispheric Airborne Measurements of Air Quality (HAMAQ) is a NASA-funded project under the EVS-4 program using two aircraft (NASA’s B777 & P-3B) to
Leaker: Apple Downgrading iPhone 18 to Cut Costs
Apple is downgrading the planned specifications of the standard iPhone 18 to cut costs, a leaker claims. In a new post on Weibo, the user known as "Fixed Focus Digital" said that the iPhone 18 features "certain manufacturing downgrades" that bring it more into line with the low-cost iPhone 18e model. The decision is said to be "a cost-cutting measure".
iPhone 18 coming later than usual with new cost-cutting measures, per leaker
Apple’s flagship iPhone 18 launch could look fairly different than usual, with later timing and new cost-cutting measures for the base model.
DaVinci Resolve 21 hands-on: A viable Lightroom alternative for casual users
DaVinci's Resolve is now a viable free option to Lightroom, but it lacks some advanced features professionals require.
Toledo long-term care hospital closing its doors, state filings show
Advanced Specialty Hospitals of Toledo is closing its doors effective May 1, according to state filings.
‘Maximum Pleasure Guaranteed’: Everything We Know About Tatiana Maslany’s New Show
Tatiana Maslany, Jake Johnson, and Murray Bartlett star in an unpredictable, darkly comedic thriller.
U.S. Delivers Maternal Health Equipment Across Madagascar - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
U.S. Delivers Maternal Health Equipment Across Madagascar U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold today provided critical maternal and newborn health equipment that will reach healthcare facilities across Madagascar, demonstrating how U.S. foreign assistance builds a safer, healthier world by helping recipient countries build self-reliant health systems in line with the America First Global Health Strategy. Under President Trump’s America First foreign assistance policy and the America First Global Health Policy, U.S. support serves as a tool of strategic engagement – not global charity. Every U.S. taxpayer dollar is subject to rigorous oversight to ensure measurable results, maximum efficiency, and accountability, with zero tolerance for fraud, waste, or abuse. Through the bilateral Global Health Memorandum of Understanding with Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health, both governments agreed on shared priorities and responsibilities, including a strong focus on maternal and newborn health and Madagascar’s increasing co-investment in its own health system. Madagascar continues to face major challenges in maternal and newborn health, including high maternal mortality rates and significant gaps in access to quality delivery care. In rural regions, many women still give birth at home or in facilities without adequate infection-prevention supplies. Through the U.S.-funded Momentum Country and Global Leadership Project, the United States is providing essential equipment to healthcare facilities nationwide: calibrated reusable drapes for infection prevention in approximately 1,000 community health centers (CSBs), single-use calibrated drapes for 35 hospitals, and management tools for health workers to improve data collection and care coordination. “U.S. foreign assistance makes America safer by preventing instability and strengthening health systems that can detect and contain infectious diseases before they cross borders,” said Chargé d’Affaires Arnold during the handover ceremony. “Our support is temporary and targeted, designed to help Madagascar build greater self-reliance and reduce long-term dependence on U.S. taxpayer resources.” This U.S. support will help standardize safe delivery practices, strengthen infection prevention, and improve data management systems. Used effectively, these materials will contribute directly to reducing maternal and newborn deaths, especially in rural and hard-to-reach areas where access to quality delivery care remains limited. From major hospitals to remote health centers, U.S.-funded equipment is already delivering results. The nationwide scope of this support ensures that women and newborns across Madagascar benefit from improved infection prevention and safer delivery practices. This targeted assistance helps save lives today while supporting Madagascar’s transition toward a self-sufficient health system, ensuring that today’s U.S. support leads to Madagascar’s future independence from foreign assistance.
Health care fight intensifies as Congress weighs GOP-backed insurance changes
Congressional Republicans say they are taking steps on health care — but Democrats counter that previous efforts are already costing Virginians coverage and putting hospitals under strain. Republicans have pointed to measures like the Rural Health Transformation Fund and an association health plan expansion bill that has cleared the House and is headed to the […]
Hundreds pack Montevideo’s plaza as La Rueda de Candombe caps a breakout run
Every Monday night in Montevideo, hundreds of people gather around a table in a public square, drawn by the pulse of drums, guitars, and voices. La Rueda de Candombe started as a casual jam session...
WWDC 2026 Graphic Teases Major iOS 27 Feature
Apple's WWDC 2026 graphic provides "a glimpse of the revamped Siri interface coming in iOS 27," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In his Power On newsletter today, Gurman said iOS 27 will include a new Siri interface in the Dynamic Island.
PG Joel Foxwell to transfer to ASU
Portland transfer point guard Joel Foxwell committed to ASU men's basketball following a First Team All-WCC freshman campaign.
Trump's approval rating drops over economy, Iran war in new poll
New polling from NBC News Decision Desk measured new lows for the president's second term. See the numbers.
Politics: Iowa House approves bills affecting license plate readers, chatbots
The Iowa House of Representatives approved two measures last week relating to the usage of automated license plate readers and AI chatbots, bills that advocates for privacy and child safety
Physicists share the glory and the wealth after winning $3M for exploring muon mysteries
A University of Washington professor and hundreds of others who measured the muon's magnetism have won a $3 million Breakthrough Prize.
Lexington new and used home furnishings store is downsizing after 36 years in business
Another Man’s Treasure on Regency Road will close next month, while the Third Street location is being expanded.
Despite Mize's Brilliance, Detroit Loses A Pitching Duel In Fenway
That was one of those ball games that separates the diehards from the casual fans. I’m sure that there will be people who look at the final score and think that that game was “boring“, but for me, that’s about as entertaining as they come. It’s another night in which the Tigers played a low-scoring game with two starting pitchers who were featuring their best stuff.
Democrats want Colorado colleges to provide medication abortion
A bill proposing to require Colorado colleges and universities to provide abortion medication services cleared a legislative committee on Thursday. Advocates said the measure — which exempts religious-based institutions but applies to public, private, and community colleges — will improve access to abortion, while opponents argue it would force educational institutions to take a side […]
Mike Johnson Isn’t So Good at This Whole Speaker of the House Thing
He failed to deliver on a surveillance measure. Now he’s on the president’s naughty list.
Senate extends controversial surveillance program used by U.S. spy agencies
The Senate approved a short-term renewal until April 30. The measure cleared the Senate by voice vote, without a formal roll call, as Congress raced to meet a Monday deadline. It now heads to President Donald Trump, who had pushed for a clean 18-month extension, for his signature.
How Do You Measure an A.I. Boom?
A chart created by METR, a nonprofit A.I. organization, has become an industrywide obsession as it measures the rapid development of big A.I. systems.
Demonstrating the Impact of School-Based Health Centers
Learn about key measures to demonstrate the health, reach, and economic impact of School-Based Health Centers, with state examples.
The return of power politics to the market: theory and practice of the geoeconomic zeitenwende
Descriptions, explanations, and recommendations regarding foreign policy as well as foreign trade policy increasingly refer to the concept of geoeconomics. In fact, the use of economic and technological measures in foreign policy practice is becoming more frequent and intensive, especially in those countries that have the necessary resources of power at their disposal, such as […]
Health care is not ready for the new era of AI-enabled cyberattacks
“When health care infrastructure is attacked and held for ransom by hackers, patients become real casualties,” writes Andrea Downing.
House Votes to Extend Expiring Law on Warrantless Surveillance for 10 Days
The Senate would need to also approve the stopgap measure that passed the House early Friday. Libertarian-leaning House Republicans had balked at a long-term extension.
Scientists Finally Measured The Mind-Blowing Power of a Black Hole's Jets
Because they found something strong enough to bend them.
How Elizabeta Gjorgievska Joshevski built a global tech career and is now shaping AI strategy for enterprises
Elizabeta Gjorgievska Joshevski explains how EverCognitive helps companies approach AI transformation with strategy, readiness, and measurable business outcomes.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
Iowa GOP at odds over Kim Reynolds' immigration bill. What happens now?
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America's Open for Business
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Scrutiny of Hegseth mounts as Democrats attempt to rein in Trump administration over Iran war
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How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
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Mahoning Valley arts and entertainment
Art ARTS & EDUCATION AT THE HOYT, 124 E. Leasure Ave., New Castle, Pa.: “Greig Leach: Past in the Present Will Be the Future” ...
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Open-air driving pleasure in the new Porsche 911 GT3 S/C
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UNM College of Population Health Celebrates 10 Years
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Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
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Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Anthropic may soon pass OpenAI on this measure of AI business spending
Anthropic has seen a surge in business spending in recent months, according to Ramp's AI index.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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Fleming, Cassidy, Letlow
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