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Who are the candidates for Oregon House District 20?
For the first time in years, the primaries for House District 20 will be contested for both Democrats and Republicans in the May 19 primary election.
Why Democrats with 2028 hopes are calling Lina Khan – and what she’s telling them about remaking the economy
Lina Khan is getting constant calls from Democrats, many of them thinking about presidential runs, to sound out problems and workshop potential solutions. That’s a shift from when she was Federal Trade Commission chair and some party leaders avoided meetings or events with her. Khan hasn’t changed so much as the world around her has. Many Americans are furious about rising costs, affordability, technological changes, and soaring profits for the rich. And President Donald Trump has maximized the levers of federal power in ways that were once considered off-limits in both parties. What Khan has in mind for the next Democrat in the White House isn’t a 1,000-page blueprint like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It’s more of an overall strategy rooted in her specialty: excavating long-forgotten laws already on the books, then finding ways to apply them to 21st century companies.
Elaine Luria, January 6 panel member seeking political comeback, says ‘the wind is on our back’ as Democrats try to flip House
Luria, who lost her seat to a Republican after standing up to Trump, has secured key endorsements in Virginia race
Biggest party in Romanian coalition set to demand PM's resignation, political crisis looms
Romania's Social Democrats are widely expected to withdraw their support for Liberal Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan on Monday, likely ushering in months of political instability that will pressure debt, credit ratings and the receipt of EU funds.
Health care fight intensifies as Congress weighs GOP-backed insurance changes
Congressional Republicans say they are taking steps on health care — but Democrats counter that previous efforts are already costing Virginians coverage and putting hospitals under strain. Republicans have pointed to measures like the Rural Health Transformation Fund and an association health plan expansion bill that has cleared the House and is headed to the […]
Pinwheels and the ‘lobster district’: How Virginia Democrats drew up a US House map to all but lock out Republicans
Virginia Democrats hope the new congressional map they’re asking voters to approve Tuesday will flip four Republican House districts, delivering 10 of 11 seats in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won with just 52% of the vote in 2024. To do it, they want to dramatically rework entire sections of the state, slicing up deep blue districts in the Washington, DC, suburbs and around Richmond, and creating a new district running along the Blue Ridge Mountains that connects liberal cities. That’s required something called the “lobster district,” stretching from northern Virginia into two “pincers” grabbing up rural territory.
Michigan Democrats seek to mend old divides at contentious convention
The Israel-Gaza war remains a flashpoint within the Michigan Democratic Party, as demonstrated by the ouster of a pro-Israel official on Sunday.
Democrats are 'playing petty politics': GOP lawmaker
Rep. Sheri Biggs, R-S.C., condemns Democrats for playing 'petty politics' with DHS funding, risking national security, on 'Fox News Live.'
Michigan Democrats pick Savit over McDonald for attorney general nominee
Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit defeated Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald at a Michigan Democratic Party state convention on Sunday.
Lt. Gov. Gilchrist wins Democratic nomination for secretary of state
Michigan Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II as their candidate for secretary of state at a convention in Detroit on Sunday.
Democrats Eye a Broader Battlefield to Capture Congress in November
Weighed down by President Trump’s approval ratings, some Republican incumbents are struggling to raise money while Democrats look for targets like a Tennessee seat south of Nashville.
Politics Now: April 18, 2026
This week on Politics Now with host John Langeler: President Donald Trump visits Las Vegas to talk about “No Taxes on Tips” and democrats hold several protests. Endorsements in some clo…
Must-win Michigan Senate race turns messy for Democrats amid fight over Israel and future of the party
How a must-win Michigan Senate race turned messy for Democrats
Sitting in a coffee shop in his hometown of Ann Arbor, Abdul El-Sayed is ready to dispel the notion that he’s unelectable. “I think there is this notion that electability is about being the least offensive,” he told CNN. “If that were true, why would Donald Trump have won the presidency twice?” Whether he’s right could have enormous ramifications for control of the Senate. Michigan’s open Senate seat is now emerging as a GOP hedge against a potential takeover for Democrats, who need to net four seats to flip the chamber. Losing Michigan would make the Democrats’ task almost impossible, a major reason why a leading Republican outside group just announced plans to pour $45 million into the state this summer and fall to boost former Rep. Mike Rogers, the likely GOP nominee. El-Sayed faces US Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow in a battle already riven by divides over Israel, immigration enforcement and health care.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
Q&A: Jocelyn Benson on her tenure as Michigan's secretary of state
Michigan Democrats will pick a new secretary of state nominee during a convention in Detroit on Sunday.
Beshear urges Democrats to 'talk like a normal human being' to voters
Michigan Democrats gathered Saturday in Detroit to honor outgoing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Her Kentucky counterpart had a message on voter messaging.
Potential 2028 Democrats Audition in Michigan,With a Focus on Trump
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky spoke at a gathering of party insiders in Detroit, fueling presidential speculation.
Effort to bridge divide between moderate, liberal Democrats in the Colorado legislature falls apart
A transparency bill sponsored by Opportunity Caucus leaders and progressives has stalled. In its place, a new bill, sponsored only by more progressive Democrats, was introduced Friday
What to know about the Democrats running to represent Southwest Ohio
Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman will face challenger Damon Lynch IV in the May primary for Ohio's 1st District.
Democrats want Colorado colleges to provide medication abortion
A bill proposing to require Colorado colleges and universities to provide abortion medication services cleared a legislative committee on Thursday. Advocates said the measure — which exempts religious-based institutions but applies to public, private, and community colleges — will improve access to abortion, while opponents argue it would force educational institutions to take a side […]
The Iran war collides with Mamdani's message on high costs: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Democrats post another overperformance in a special House election.
Democratic Senate hopefuls put California cash in the bank
California donors helped Democrats in key Senate races outraise their Republican opponents, according to latest campaign filings.
Senate extends controversial surveillance program used by U.S. spy agencies
The Senate approved a short-term renewal until April 30. The measure cleared the Senate by voice vote, without a formal roll call, as Congress raced to meet a Monday deadline. It now heads to President Donald Trump, who had pushed for a clean 18-month extension, for his signature.
Science Committee Democratic Staff Report Reveals Details on NASA’s Illegal Implementation of Trump’s FY2026 Budget Request Without Congressional Approval
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
California Democrats can’t decide on a governor. Don’t count on Newsom or Pelosi for help
Even with Rep. Eric Swalwell’s downfall, California Democrats face a glut of gubernatorial options. Party heavyweights won’t save the day.
House approves short-term extension of surveillance law in blow to Republicans’ long-term plan
The decision to extend a warrantless security law until 30 April came after 20 Republicans worked with House Democrats to defeat attempts to pass five-year and 18-month renewals
How Swalwell’s exit — and Trump’s entrance — reset the California governor’s race
In the muddled California gubernatorial race, Democrats are simultaneously growing more confident and more uncertain.
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
Minnesota up against the clock on Medicaid changes
Democrats and Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature say they need to either pass legislation or update existing rules soon to ensure that state programs comply with new requirements from the federal government.
California Senate Democrats propose new health care tax on major companies
California's Democratic State Senators are proposing a new tax on major corporations to help with the state's health care costs.
Democrats want the full 2024 election autopsy released — no matter the findings
DNC Chair Ken Martin told party officials he planned to release some of the results, sources said. But more than a dozen Democrats said they want to see the full scope of the problems.
Randy Fine leads CD 6 fundraising race, but some Democrats are making credible showings
The Hebrew Hammer will have battles in August and November.
A vaccine standoff and other key moments from RFK Jr.'s first congressional hearing in months
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. defended a more than 12% proposed cut to his department's budget and dodged arrows from angry Democrats as he kicked off an expected sprint of seven hearings in Congress over the next seven days.
Ryan Tyson says it's still unlikely Democrats win statewide in Florida, but not impossible
He spoke on a panel alongside Florida Politics' Peter Schorsch about the 2026 races.
Democrats relish big fundraising gains for Senate races favoring Republicans
While Democrats touted their totals, they offer only a snapshot of overall fundraising, as campaigns had until the end of the day Wednesday to file with the Federal Election Commission.
States rush to redraw U.S. House districts ahead of the November midterm elections
Redistricting usually happens once a decade, but President Donald Trump sparked a mid-decade redistricting battle last year while calling on Texas Republicans to redraw their districts for partisan advantage. California Democrats reciprocated, and other states soon followed.
Senate GOP backs Iran war again, but deadline looms
This marked the fourth attempt by Democrats to limit Trump’s power
Democrats vow to block next Trump Supreme Court pick amid Alito speculation
Justice Samuel Alito hasn’t tipped his hat on retiring just yet, but Senate Democrats are already entrenched in opposing the confirmation of a successor that would deliver President Donald Trump his fourth lifetime appointment to the high court. Democrats need to first retake the majority and for a vacancy to arise. But with the party’s […]
Scrutiny of Hegseth mounts as Democrats attempt to rein in Trump administration over Iran war
House Democrats file impeachment articles against Trump’s defense secretary as Senate Democrats fail to pass measures to check White House power over Iran war
Talarico Leads a Democratic Cash Surge: 7 Takeaways From 2026 Filings
Democrats in key Senate races out-raised their Republican rivals, but super PACs on the right are poised to play a powerful role in the midterms, new campaign finance filings showed.
Largely secret donors pour millions into election that could tip Congress
Most of the almost $100 million raised to influence the vote, heavily favoring Democrats, comes from nonprofits that don’t have to disclose their donors.
Drugmakers raised prices on hundreds of drugs despite Trump deals, Senate Democrats report finds
The findings raise questions about whether the administration’s “most favored nation” deals are having a meaningful impact on patients.
‘He’s got a lot of stamina:’ What to watch as the RFK Jr. hearing blitz kicks off
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make the case for the Trump budget. Democrats will test his political acumen.
Meet the Democrats running for Hamilton County commissioner
It's a battle of local government officials this May in the Democratic primary for Hamilton County commissioner.
House Democrats attempt anti-corruption message to gain traction against Trump
Days after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was ousted by an opposition campaign with an anti-corruption message, Democrats want to try the same playbook against President Donald Trump before the midterm elections.
La. Senate panel OKs bill to indoctrinate teens in conservative 'success' ideology
Two Black Democrats on the committee, Katrina Jackson-Andrews and Sidney Barthelemy II, objected to naming the bill after far-right activist Charlie Kirk, who had a history of publicly making racist and other derogatory comments.
Senate again votes against ending Iran war. But tougher votes are coming
The Senate on Wednesday again blocked a resolution that would halt American hostilities against Iran. Democrats aren't done forcing similar votes.
Delaware Democrats push for an earlier primary day
Evelyn Brady, the State Chair of the Delaware Democratic Party, discussed her state's bid for an early primary.
The main issues Democratic candidates will focus on in 2028
Democrats are facing a new political arena without Trump as an opponent
Taxing millionaires and billionaires is a political no brainer for Democrats
The American financial elite have benefited from tax breaks while the rest of the population struggles, leading to a push for tax reform and increased taxation on the wealthy.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-legislative-hearing-public-health-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee legislative hearing on "Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health:"
Ranking Member Sykes' Opening Statement at Hearing on Scientific Publishing
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Ranking Member Lofgren Opening Statement at Hearing on Scientific Publishing
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Gavin Newsom faces growing pressure to intervene in a scrambled California governor’s race
The scrambled race for California governor left in the wake of Eric Swalwell’s sexual misconduct allegations isn’t officially Gov. Gavin Newsom’s mess. But it’s one that many top Democrats want him to consider trying to clean up.
Worried about the midterms, Republicans mobilize rural Virginia voters against redistricting
Republican groups are mounting an intensifying, 11th-hour campaign to mobilize rural voters ahead of Virginia’s April 21 referendum to redraw its US House maps. At stake are as many as four US House seats Democrats want to redraw in their favor for the midterms. To maximize Democratic advantage, the map would put wealthy Washington, DC, suburbs in the same districts as farm communities 90 miles away, including in one misshapen district nicknamed the “lobster claw.”
Comer, Democrats spar over Bondi testimony schedule
Rep. James Comer and his Democratic counterpart on the House Oversight Committee are sparring over a subpoena of former Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Senate Democrats outline amendment strategy as budget debate nears
Members of the Colorado Senate met with their respective caucuses on Tuesday to discuss the state’s proposed $46.8 billion budget for fiscal year 2026-2027, which passed through the House over the weekend following lengthy debate. The full Senate will begin debating the budget on Wednesday. Joint Budget Committee members Sens. Jeff Bridges and Judy Amabile […]
Democrats aim to keep their special election gains going: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales officially resign.
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
Democrats float 25th Amendment commission for Trump
Democrats in Congress introduce a bill to invoke the 25th Amendment against President Donald Trump, citing national security concerns.
Democrats seek to overturn Trump's new rules for student loan forgiveness
Democrats in Congress are trying to overturn the Trump administration's changes to a student loan forgiveness program | WWJ Newsradio 950
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore falls short in bid to redraw congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state's legislative session.
Democrats line up to run in Virginia congressional districts, even before voters approve them
Virginia voters are set to decide next week on a Democratic-drawn redistricting plan that could boost the party's chances in the U.S. House | TALK 980am
Will Democrats try to remove Trump from office?
Impeachment, 25th Amendment are likely to fall short
Critics blast Democrats after Swalwell resignation, say saga shows ‘how politics really works’
Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual abuse allegations draws fierce criticism, with pundits claiming Democrats sat on the dirt for years.
Olivia Troye, Ex-Pence Aide, Runs for the House as a Democrat
After spending most of her Washington career as a Republican, she joins a crowded field of Democrats running in a Virginia district that doesn’t exist yet.
Opinion: 3 things Democrats should do to support small business in CT
New Haven's Caroline Tanbee Smith outlines 3 pillars of strategy to boost small business in Connecticut.
Gov. Wes Moore falls short in push to redraw Maryland's congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state’s legislative session
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
Cook Political Report shifts four Senate races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left on Monday but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber this November. “With an increasingly…
Texas House Democrats fined each over $8K for quorum break
The committee tallied the combined penalties at over $421,000.
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Swalwell’s Fall Punctuates Woes of Democrats in California, of All Places
Democrats have struggled to find a candidate for governor who can capture the imagination of voters in one of their most important strongholds.
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
Michigan U.S. Senate 'primary storm' captivates, but worries Democrats
For decades, Democrats have avoided competitive primary contests to pick the party's nominees for U.S. Senate. That's not the case this year.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting to face questions on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
This week, Victoria Derbyshire is stepping in for Laura Kuenssberg. Tory MP James Cartlidge and Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will also be on the show.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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