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China's robot half marathon sets record, sparks laughs
A robot in China outran the human half-marathon record, though tumbles and chaos stole part of the spotlight.
Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling towards the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake
Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction-markets industry expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.
Oil prices rebound 7% as Strait of Hormuz is closed again
Oil prices rebounded more than 7% on Monday after tumbling more than 9% on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz closed after the U.S. and Iran said that the other party has violated the ceasefire deal by attacking ships.
Can Claude Write Z80 Assembly Code?
Betteridge’s law applies, but with help and guidance by a human who knows his stuff, [Ready Z80] was able to get a functioning game of Wordle out of the French-named LLM, which is more than w…
FanDuel wants to carve a sports niche in the controversial prediction market business
FanDuel has built a large and growing business with its sports betting app, becoming the largest online sportsbook in the United States. But online sports gambling remains illegal in many states, which is why it’s getting into the booming — and controversial — prediction market business.
FanDuel wants to carve a sports niche in the controversial prediction market business
FanDuel has built a large and growing business with its sports betting app, becoming the largest online sportsbook in the United States. But online sports gambling remains illegal in many states, which is why it’s getting into the booming — and controversial — prediction market business.
Hart Announces Bill Package to Improve Health Care Access and Outcomes
Assemblymember Gregg Hart (D-Santa Barbara) has introduced three bills to help Californians obtain the care they need.
Two arrested after 29 illegal gambling machines seized at Tallahassee business
Two people are behind bars, and a gambling house is shut down after law enforcement seized over two dozen illegal gambling machines from a Tallahassee business.
Two arrested after 29 illegal gambling machines seized at Tallahassee business
Two people are behind bars, and a gambling house is shut down after law enforcement seized over two dozen illegal gambling machines from a Tallahassee business.
Two arrested after 29 illegal gambling machines seized at Tallahassee business
Two people are behind bars, and a gambling house is shut down after law enforcement seized over two dozen illegal gambling machines from a Tallahassee business.
Two arrested after 29 illegal gambling machines seized at Tallahassee business
Two people are behind bars, and a gambling house is shut down after law enforcement seized over two dozen illegal gambling machines from a Tallahassee business.
Don Schlitz, country songwriter behind 'The Gambler,' dies at 73
Schlitz was born in 1952 and raised in Durham before packing his bags and heading to Nashville.
Colorado Politics Calendar Apr. 20-26
CoPo’s weekly political calendar helps you find political and public policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
Two arrested after 29 illegal gambling machines seized at Tallahassee business
Two people are behind bars after law enforcement seized over two dozen illegal gambling machines from a Tallahassee business.
Purplish: Who’s on the primary ballot and what did it take for them to get there
Party diehards got their say on who they want to see on the ballot. The Purplish team breaks down who made it through and what it means to pick candidates this way.
Previewing the 2026 NC legislative session
ABC11's Sean Coffey and N&O politics reporter Luciana Perez Uribe Guinassi talk about what to look for in the upcoming session of the North Carolina General Assembly.
Dollars & Sense: Young adults turn to sports gambling to catch up financially
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$311 Million Approved for Construction of New UT Health Sciences College of Medicine Building
The Tennessee General Assembly Thursday approved the funding of $311 million recommended by Governor Bill Lee for the construction of a new $350 million College of Medicine Interdisciplinary Building at the University of Tennessee Health Sciences. The 275,000- to 300,000-square-foot building will be located on the Memphis campus on Madison Avenue, between the College of… Read More
$311 Million Approved for Construction of New UT Health Sciences College of Medicine Building
The Tennessee General Assembly Thursday approved the funding of $311 million recommended by Governor Bill Lee for the construction of a new $350 million College of Medicine Interdisciplinary Building at the University of Tennessee Health Sciences.
Samuel Tremblay named Outstanding Graduating International Student for the Maine Business School
ORONO, Maine -- Samuel Tremblay of Quebec City is the Outstanding Graduating International Student for the Maine Business School. A business administration student majoring in management, Tremblay is a tutor, mentor, Maine Business School ambassador and president of the UMaine chapter of the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.
Washington’s Scramble to Get Mythos, Anthropic’s Powerful New Model
Federal agencies have requested access to Claude Mythos Preview, which Anthropic says can rapidly identify — and potentially create — new cyberthreats.
Small business owners in Knoxville left scrambling after popular consignment store franchise closes
Opinion: Can Brian Kemp’s Derek Dooley gamble pay off?
The Georgia governor’s decision not to run for U.S. Senate and instead get behind the former University of Tennessee football coach has peeved his fellow Republicans.
'I’m humbled to be alongside those great names': Broncos Ring of Famer Steve Foley inducted into Colorado Sports Hall of Fame
“It’s a tremendous honor not only for me, but also for my family,” Foley told DenverBroncos.com
Abrupt closure of boutique business in Colorado city leaves vendors scrambling to move out
Damon Jones, former NBA player and Cavs assistant, reportedly set to plead guilty to sports gambling charges
Damon Jones, former NBA player and Cavs assistant, reportedly plans to plead guilty to sports gambling charges
Jones was accused of selling insider information to bettors about the health and availability of NBA players, including LeBron James.
Former NBA player Damon Jones expected to plead guilty in case of illegal sports betting scheme
Jones was accused last year of selling nonpublic information to gamblers for a cut of their profits. He pleaded not guilty to federal charges in November.
2026 End of Session Wrap-Up: Business Affairs
The segments below provide a brief overview of MACo’s work on business affairs policy in the 2026 General Assembly session. Business regulation and
Damon Jones plans to plead guilty to selling sports gambling insider information
Jones was accused of selling insider information to sports gamblers while he worked with the Lakers.
Flutter Entertainment Stock (FLUT) Opinions on Citi Downgrade
Citi Downgrade Triggers Alarm: Social media erupted today after Citigroup double-downgraded Flutter Entertainment to sell, citing mounting U.S. business risks for its FanDuel unit. Users dissected concerns over slowing growth, intensifying competition, and potential regulatory hurdles. The stock tumbled in premarket trading amid the fresh bearish call.Profitability Doubts Mount: Conversations highlighted slashed EBITDA forecasts and reduced buyba
Seeing women govern encourages support for women in politics – with no apparent backlash among men
After the main Namibian party started alternating candidates between men and women, female representation in the National Assembly nearly doubled.
Abbott Stock Tumbles on Earnings. Nutrition Business Is Struggling and Merger Costs Biting.
Abbott Laboratories continues to grapple with falling sales in its nutrition segment.
Ohio readies $5M fine against Kalshi for unlicensed sports betting: Capitol Letter
The prediction market operator is waging a multistate battle over whether its sports offerings should be treated as state-regulated gambling or federally regulated financial swaps.
How Jesse Helms Paved the Way for Donald Trump
While Senator Jesse Helms, who died in 2008, would have been scandalized by Trump, the two men shared many political attributes.
From an Oregon waffle iron to global icon: How Nike changed the game
Born in Oregon and built into a global force, Nike grew from humble beginnings into one of America’s most influential brands.
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Small business owners scrambling after abrupt closure of 6 Houston-area 'Painted Tree' boutiques
Dozens of small business owners across the Houston area are scrambling to find new places to operate after the sudden closure of all Painted Tree boutique locations nationwide.
'This is the majority of my income' | Painted Tree closures leave Houston-area small business vendors scrambling
Painted Tree Boutiques is shutting down locations across the U.S., including six stores in the Houston area, leaving hundreds of small business owners scrambling.
Kalshi faces Ohio fine amid sports betting legal battle
The fine comes on the heels of a court loss Kalshi suffered in March, when a federal judge said its offerings should be considered gambling.
Kalshi faces Ohio fine amid sports betting legal battle
The fine comes on the heels of a court loss Kalshi suffered in March, when a federal judge said its offerings should be considered gambling.
Astra Militarum rules revealed – Commissar Graves and new vehicles
Armoured vehicles rumble from the hives of Armageddon to open up new tactics in Warhammer 40,000.
Houston small business owners blindsided by sudden Painted Tree Boutiques closure
Hundreds of Houston-area small business owners are scrambling after Painted Tree Boutiques, an indoor marketplace with six locations across the Houston area, abruptly shut down all of its stores nationwide with little to no warning.
Why thousands of 2026 entertainment season workers are one accident away from financial disaster
Thimble reports that gig workers in the 2026 entertainment season face financial risk from accidents due to insufficient insurance coverage.
Why thousands of 2026 entertainment season workers are one accident away from financial disaster
Thimble reports that gig workers in the 2026 entertainment season face financial risk from accidents due to insufficient insurance coverage.
Inspired Entertainment Expands Global Reach Through SaaS Distribution Agreement for Virtual Sports with Playtech
NEW YORK, April 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (“Inspired” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: INSE), a leading provider of B2B gaming content and systems, today announced a new SaaS distribution agreement with Playtech (LSE: PTEC), one of the world’s leading gambling technology companies. Under the agreement, Inspired’s Virtual Sports portfolio, including its market-leading licensed content and U.S. sports offerings, will be distributed via Playtech’s Sportsbook platform to op
Ohio regulators seek to fine Kalshi $5M for unlicensed sports gambling
COLUMBUS — Online prediction market platform Kalshi is facing a $5 million fine for operating an unlicensed sports gambling business in Ohio. The Ohio ...
JD Vance appeals to MAGA youth on Iran war after suffering setbacks abroad
Vice President JD Vance appealed to disheartened MAGA youth in Georgia after stumbling on two recent foreign policy assignments.
Political science junior Maddie Hanes elected ASMSU President
The General Assembly of ASMSU elected Maddie Hanes as the President of the 63rd session, who will serve during the 2026-2027 school year in addition to Anna Burk, who will be the re-elected Vice President of Finance and Operations.
Gavin Newsom faces growing pressure to intervene in a scrambled California governor’s race
The scrambled race for California governor left in the wake of Eric Swalwell’s sexual misconduct allegations isn’t officially Gov. Gavin Newsom’s mess. But it’s one that many top Democrats want him to consider trying to clean up.
Gambling legislation proposed puts fee on sports wagers
A bill has been proposed by Republican State Senator Bill Blessing, based in the Cincinnati area, that would put a two percent fee on sports wagers.The bill is
Gambling legislation proposed puts fee on sports wagers
A bill has been proposed by Republican State Senator Bill Blessing, based in the Cincinnati area, that would put a two percent fee on sports wagers.The bill is
From 'Star Wars' to streaming, Disney is U.S. entertainment giant
From the humble beginnings of 'Steamboat Willie' in 1928, Disney is now a massive 'cultural icon.'
Disney an entertainment force. See some of the characters behind it
From the humble beginnings of 'Steamboat Willie' in 1928, Disney now a worldwide brand.
See Microsoft's rise from garage idea to tech giant in 50 years
Fifty years after Bill Gates and Paul Allen gambled on a piece of software, Microsoft has become something bigger than a brand. It runs business, lives.
Helene exposed cracks in western NC’s health care safety net
Analyses of emergency room use and a doctor’s scramble to reopen his clinic raise questions ahead of the next big storm.
SBART Press Luncheon: Matteo Williams Receives Phil Womble Ethics in Sports Award
Matteo Burdick and Josephine Grossman are the SBART Athletes of the Week.
US dispatch: UN women’s conference day 3—mixed progress for women’s political…
Note: This story is part of a series of coverage from the first week of the 2026 UN Women’s Commission on the Status of Women (CSW70). Read Day 1 and Day 2. The third day of the 70th session of the Co...
Scottsdale small business owners scramble as Painted Tree Boutiques announces sudden closure
Business owners who rent space at Painted Tree Boutiques were told Tuesday morning that the company was ceasing operations, leaving many scrambling.
Gambling companies funnel money into ballot measures to legalize online sports betting – and to individual candidates
As popular online gambling platforms funnel millions into the campaign to legalize online sports betting in Nebraska, some companies are also making significant contributions to individual campaigns.
Nebraska business owners left scrambling as Painted Tree Boutiques ceases operations
Business owners are scrambling to retrieve their items after Painted Tree Boutiques abruptly shut its doors on Tuesday.
TFT patch 17.1
Choose your Space God, earn their powerful boon, and assemble your galactic roster!
New York Yankees respond after Aaron Judge called out team
The MLB regular season is in full swing, and teams are already battling early in the year. Some clubs have jumped out to hot starts. Others, however, have stumbled out of the gate. The New York Yankees entered Monday on…
'Cherki has bought true freedom and creative magic'
Manchester City are finding their stride at the perfect time and it's the most daunting of warnings being issued simultaneously to those of an Arsenal persuasion. Mikel Arteta's side stumbled and Pep Guardiola's players pounced and at the heart of that deadly punch was Rayan Cherki, who grabbed the Chelsea game by the scruff of its neck to take all three points. Chelsea frustrated and on numerous occasions threatened to do their London rivals a favour in the first half on Sunday, but it was City who stood firm, albeit whilst not creating too much themselves.
What are the odds? CMU sports betting class explores statistical, cognitive sides of gambling
In 2018, Ron Yurko was researching sports analytics as a Ph.D. student at Carnegie Mellon University when the Supreme Court legalized sports betting. Suddenly,...
🥐Champions matchday, clash at Wembley... Tuesday's 5️⃣ stories
Champions League quarter-final second legs, a new round in the Libertadores, or a women’s England-Spain at Wembley. I’m not asking you to outdo me, just match me. The end of the Atleti-Barça tril...
Tap THC beverage tax to address budget gap
By Christine Lafferty Colorado is faced with the largest budget deficit in recent memory — calculated to be a $1.5 billion hole according to the state’s Joint Budget Committee. Legislators have been scrambling to address this gap, which signals massive cuts to important state services such as education, climate management, and health care. It’s time for […]
WNBA Draft winners and losers: A star-studded crowd, the Valkyries' Flau'jae fumble, GOATs and more
Scientists Grow Electronics Inside the Brains of Living Mice
The technology harnesses the brain's own blood chemistry to assemble soft, light-controlled electrodes around neurons.
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
Prediction markets have exploded. What can they tell us about Oregon’s hottest primary race?
The state of the Republican gubernatorial primary has been hard to divine, but gamblers have thoughts.
US intel officials scramble to keep surveillance law running amid Iran war tensions
With just days until a powerful surveillance law lapses, US national security officials are scrambling to prepare for potential blind spots in intelligence collection amid the US’ delicate ceasefire with Iran, current and former officials told CNN.
Liverpool, the Grand National and the rumbling discord around Merseyside’s biggest sporting day
Those in control of the most powerful sporting institutions stand accused of understanding the cost of everything but the value of nothing
Leah Halton-Pope named Democratic candidate for 141st Assembly District
It comes after Crystal Peoples-Stokes announced this past week she would not seek reelection.
EL PAÍS: US aid cuts collapse Malawi’s LGBTQ+ health services as volunteers scramble to fill the void
The lack of funding has left some 15,000 users of NGO programs scrambling for care in a public system that many fear to enter.
Ohio lawmakers introduce new bills to severely restrict sports gambling across the state
Three Ohio state representatives introduced a pair of new bills this week that aim to severely restrict the availability of sports betting in the state. This comes after Gov. Mike DeWine has repeatedly said in recent months that he regrets allowing sports betting to become legalized in Ohio.
Sparks trade forward Jackson to the Sky for guard Atkins
LOS ANGELES -- It had been rumbling for days now but this was still a surprise when first mentioned.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
Pastors Scott Bottoms, Victor Marx win spots in Colorado GOP’s gubernatorial primary at party assembly
Two pastors from Colorado Springs qualified Saturday for the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot at the Colorado GOP’s state assembly in Pueblo in a party meeting that dragged late into the night. State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who is known as one of the legislature’s most conservative members, won top line on the June ballot, while missionary […]
Who will win 2026 Masters? Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young on top as Scottie Scheffler leads chase pack
McIlroy's shocking stumble brought several contenders into the mix ahead of Sunday's final round at Augusta National
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
“As of January 2026… Drew Murray is now working on the StarCraft shooter” — this report could be the clearest sign yet that the project is moving forward
Fresh insight into Blizzard’s StarCraft shooter suggests experienced talent is being assembled, with Drew Murray of the now closed The Initiative joining as associative design director.
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.
Sports betting is creating a twofold public health crisis for some young men
“Even if not everybody is losing a ton of money right now, you're creating this culture of large numbers of gamblers,” Isaac Rose-Berman says on the First Opinion Podcast.
Colorado Politics calendar Apr. 13-19
CoPo’s weekly political calendar will help you find political and public-policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
Celtic must sort scouting and recruitment shambles this summer
Scouting and recruitment should be the top of Celtic’s agenda when it comes to the much needed reshuffle of club affairs this summer…Michael Nicholson and Chris McKay at TannadiceDundee Utd v Celt...
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.
Scientists Successfully Made Advanced, Lab-Grown Brains—Could They Become Conscious?
Now, prototype spinal cords are part of the brain organoid assembly.
Former Bronx and Westchester Rep. Eliot Engel dies at 79
A Bronx native, Engel served in the state Assembly from 1977 until 1988, when he successfully ran for Congress.
Pontiac Once Ran A Super Bowl Commercial Featuring An Option That Was Cancelled Almost Immediately Because The Suits Freaked Out
Super Bowl commercials have always been a big deal, right from the beginning. You have a massive captive audience, suitable primed on beer and nachos to be as suggestible as possible. That’s why carmakers have always been some of the most eager purchasers of Super Bowl ad time, and why they’ve tended to use it […]
Senator contacts leagues over 'gambling's ugly takeover'
As prediction markets expand partnerships with major U.S. sports leagues, a U.S. senator sent letters to six league commissioners Thursday raising concerns about "gambling's ugly takeover of sports."
Trump’s Pakistan gamble: Can talks produce peace?
Iran will approach these meetings pretending it’s the power at the table. That’s what they do. But the boastfulness conceals a country that has just been hammered militarily, in shambles economically, and without the support of its own people.
GSK says goodbye to leucovorin (again)
A revised ACIP charter, sports betting and gambling addiction, and other health news from Morning Rounds
Exclusive: DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Bet365 fund sports gambling super PAC
Several major sportsbooks have contributed tens of millions of dollars to a super PAC to support sports betting throughout the country, Axios has learned.
US software stocks fall as Anthropic's new AI model revives disruption fears
U.S. software shares tumbled on Thursday after Anthropic held back the wide release of a powerful AI model over concerns it could expose hidden cybersecurity vulnerabilities, deepening investor fears about the threat to traditional software firms.
Entertainment briefs | Trio performs with Fortuna Concert Series
The Department of Dance, Music, and Theatre at Cal Poly Humboldt will present “Contemporary Music for Percussion” performed by the Cal Poly Humboldt Percussion Ensemble and “Samba of Bahia” performed by the World Percussion Group.
This AI Wearable From Ex-Apple Engineers Looks Like an iPod Shuffle
Two former Apple Vision Pro developers made an AI wearable that only listens when you tap it. They hope to win where other AI gadgets have fumbled: privacy.
Patriots draft profile: Jeremiah Wright resembles Mike Onwenu at guard
Wright is a powerful guard option on Day 3.
Ohio Republican lawmakers proposed major new sports betting restrictions
Three Ohio Republican lawmakers are introducing legislation to place “guardrails” on the state’s sports betting system, including stopping online/phone gambling, limits on wagers, banning the use of credit for betting, and limiting advertisement.