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Did L.A. businesses get the promised World Cup bump?
World Cup economic impact on L.A., beer sales soar
BLM Approves Projects to Improve Forest Health and Reduce Wildfire Risk in the Fall River Valley
ALTURAS, Calif. – The Bureau of Land Management Applegate Field Office has approved two forest resilience projects in the Fall River Valley, aimed at improving forest health, reducing wildfire risk, and strengthening community preparedness. Work on both projects is expected to begin in fall 2026.
Growing smarter farmers: Morgan State, neighborhoods localize climate science
“Our mission is to create a new kind of farmer,” Farmer Chippy said. “Now we’ve got children out here doing soil testing, monitoring, accessing the … server, so we can plan our planting.”
'The Odyssey': Stop saying it needs to be watched in Imax 70mm
With 'The Odyssey,' Christopher Nolan put a spotlight on Imax 70mm and the hierarchy of premium formats. Which is applaudable, but not a future theatrical business model.
Video: Scientists watch orcas ram a sunfish so hard it explodes
Marine biologists off of Baja California recorded one orca teeing up another to smash a sunfish into pieces. Scientists say there could be a reason for this behavior — or it could be just for entertainment.
Jamall Emmers Books Fight for UFC Sacramento
Jamall Emmers is back in action. The featherweight fighter returns on August 22 in Sacramento, California. He takes on knockout artist Lerryan Douglas in a 3-round fight in the featherweight division. Multiple sources have confirmed the fight to Heavy.com. Both fighters are currently on a winning streak. Emmers won his last two fights while Douglas […] The post Jamall Emmers Books Fight for UFC Sacramento appeared first on HEAVY.
Nearly 150,000 mail ballots rejected in California' primary despite efforts to count every vote
Nearly 150,000 voters have had their mail-in ballots rejected for California’s June primary election, a sharp spike from previous primaries
Sophie Cunningham: 'Biological men' don't belong in women's sports
Indiana Fever guard Sophie Cunningham, who is sometimes referred to as 'MAGA Barbie,' has doubled down on her opinion that 'biological men' shouldn't participate in women's sports.
MATTEL AND LUCHA LIBRE AAA® ANNOUNCE WORLDWIDE LICENSING PARTNERSHIP
EL SEGUNDO, Calif., July 23, 2026 — Mattel, Inc. (Nasdaq: MAT), a leading global play and family entertainment company, and WWE, the global leader in sports entertainment, today announced a new multi-year global licensing agreement at their joint San Diego Comic-Con panel that expands Mattel's WWE portfolio to include Lucha Libre AAA Worldwide (AAA), one of Mexico's most iconic and influential lucha libre promotions.
Paramount merger lawsuit could spell trouble for California’s entertainment industry
If Paramount ultimately concludes that California’s regulatory climate is too hostile to remain here, Bonta will have no one to blame but himself.
Ilicali's Hull City transfer 'clues'
Hull City owner Acun Ilicali has said he is "disturbed" by claims of the club being rejected by transfer targets and, in an unusual move, attempted to clarify the situation. "We are reading dozens of false transfer rumors in many places," wrote Ilicali in a social media post. Ilicali, who did not mention the reports he was referring to, added: "To prevent false speculation and to give you more information, I am leaving you with our latest transfer situation, which includes some clues..."
When It Comes to Fusion, Materials Matter
Fusion at high temperatures powers the sun and, if harnessed, could provide a potential source of energy here on Earth. But controlling fusion reactions has other benefits. The process also generates subatomic particles called neutrons that are used in a range of applications spanning medicine, research, and national security. Now, scientists at the University of California, Davis (UC Davis), and the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have found that the materials surrounding a fusion reaction can dramatically increase how often it occurs, particularly at low energies where fusion is rare. The study was published July 18 in Nature Communications. Their approach sets up a way to study and engineer nuclear reactions within solid materials, opening a new field of “materials-driven fusion.” Instead of designing materials just to survive the harsh conditions of fusion, researchers might be able to design materials that boost the reaction in specific conditions, similar to the way catalysts speed up chemical processes. “It gives you a new knob to turn that you didn’t have before,” said Arun Persaud, head of the Fusion Science & Ion Beam Technology group in Berkeley Lab’s Accelerator Technology & Applied Physics (ATAP) Division. “If we understand this effect better, it opens the door to engineering new materials that would affect the fusion rate under certain conditions. Someday future progress might enable more compact and efficient neutron generators, which have all kinds of applications, like cargo screening, planetary science, and medical therapy and imaging.” In the experiment, researchers used two different methods to pack deuterium, a heavy form of hydrogen atoms that is often used in fusion, into thin foils of palladium and titanium. They then fired a beam of deuterium ions at the foils at different energies and measured how often fusion happened. Then they compared the rates from the different materials and methods with the “bare” fusion reaction (not in a material). The team found that fusion rates depended on how the deuterium was loaded into the metal foils. The biggest effect was at the lowest energies, below 2.5 kiloelectronvolts (keV), where theory predicts fusion rates drop off sharply. Instead, researchers found a surprising plateau: Some samples showed elevated fusion rates roughly a quintillion times higher than bare fusion reactions. (A quintillion is a 1 followed by 18 zeroes.) Researchers are not exactly sure why that’s happening, though they have some ideas and ways to test them. The electrons and defects within the material might partially shield repulsive electrostatic forces between deuterium nuclei, making it easier for them to get close together and fuse. Tuning the electronic structure, defects, and composition of materials could help make nuclear reactions happen more readily. “It comes down to better understanding the mechanism so that we can try to enhance it,” said corresponding author Jeremy Munday, a professor at UC Davis. “We’ve seen that we can increase fusion rates, but what is the limit? Can we bring it to lower temperatures or energies? There’s obviously a lot of interest and excitement about fusion, so if there’s something we can learn about the physics at these lower energy scales, maybe there’s something we can translate to other areas of nuclear science.” The team plans to explore a wider range of materials and continue probing the unexpected fusion plateau at lower energies. Their work establishes a reproducible experimental platform to study how solid materials influence nuclear reactions, creating a new area of research that links fusion science with materials science and chemistry. “The work shows conclusively that the material environment where fusion occurs at low temperatures is an active participant rather than a passive container,” said Cameron Geddes, director of ATAP. “That adds a new dimension to fusion research.” This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.
'The Merry Wives of Windsor Cove' review: A Shakespearean surf comedy
Eli Simon directs 'The Merry Wives of Windsor Cove,' a musical adaptation of Shakespeare's comedy that's part of this summer's New Swan Shakespeare Festival.
Schiff calls out Trump's corruption, warns against complacency
In a floor speech, California's senator plans to assay the president's conflicts of interest and offer a prescription for cleansing once Trump leaves office. He warns against numbness or complacency.
AI-backed imaging workflow helps generalist radiologists perform like breast specialists
Scaling the solution across the U.S. has the potential to mitigate the current shortfall of breast radiologists, researchers contend.
MLOps transformation at BBVA: delivering business value faster
In a previous article, we explored how BBVA is scaling its Machine Learning capabilities with a new architecture based on AWS technologies.
Bakersfield police, business owners discuss impact of vandalism on local businesses
KBAK CBS 29 and KBFX Fox58 are the news leaders for Bakersfield, California and serves surrounding communities including Oildale, Lamont, Shafter, Wasco, Buttonwillow, Maricopa, Tehachapi, Arvin, California City, Delano, McFarland, Ridgecrest and Taft.
California business owner says taxes and homelessness threaten his business
A ‘Fox News @ Night’ panel debates how the next California governor should address the economy and small businesses.
Weekly Entertainment Report: Live music and lively arts, July 23-26
Fun Fact: "Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious" is a great song from the Sound of Music soundtrack, a word that most of us can say, but not spell.
Is the California State Fair affordable? What to expect to pay for food, rides
Sacramento Bee reporter Veronica Fernandez-Alvarado visited the California Sate Fair on opening day to find affordable food and fun.
Immigration sweeps in L.A. cost businesses millions in revenue, UCLA study finds
Researchers found there were 46,000 fewer customer visits among formal businesses within half a mile of nine documented enforcement sites and an estimated $3.16 million in accumulated revenue losses during the two weeks after enforcement activity.
Standoff with Iran prompts a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia
The Saudi deal stoked surprise and immediate concern across Washington, as well as in Israel, itself a nuclear power that has long feared an atomic arms race could grip the region.
Padilla Leads Tri-Caucus in Introducing Sweeping Health Equity Bill
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), along with Senators Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Representatives Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.-25), Robin Kelly (D-Ill.-02), and Grace Meng (D-N.Y.-06) announced the reintroduction of the Health Equity and Accountability Act (HEAA) of 2026, bicameral legislation that would address health disparities among racial and ethnic minorities as well […]
Sony and Alamo Drafthouse are reopening Hollywood's Cinerama Dome
After a six-year closure and an uncertain future, the Cinerama Dome is back. Sony Pictures Entertainment and Alamo Drafthouse are restoring the historic theater and plan to reopen it in early 2028.
Clint Reilly, influential California political consultant, dies at 79
Reilly ran successful campaigns for California's most recognizable politicians, including Dianne Feinstein, Barbara Boxer and Nancy Pelosi. He later turned his attention to real estate and local media
California ranks as nation’s 15th best business climate. Who’s No. 1?
Even with all the grumbling about its economic environment, the state’s economy keeps outperforming the critics.
Pasadena businesses swelter after copper wire thefts wreck ACs
These days, the temperature inside the kitchen at Sweet Red Peach bakery is at least 93 degrees.
Newsom's populist act: Oppose state billionaire tax, embrace federal one
Gov. Gavin Newsom opposes the California wealth tax measure and supports one nationally. But there’s another tax-the-rich measure on the state ballot.
New Jersey’s Noncitizen Voting Reveal Is a Nightmare For Democrats | WSJ Politics Newsletter for July 22
Plus, Pete Hegseth says the cost of the war in Iran is now $37.5 billion, and the administration freezes $1 billion in Medicaid funding to California and Minnesota.
Transcript: Astronauts for America Event At The California Science Center
Transcript: Astronauts for America Event At The California Science Center
‘Truly unprecedented’: Portland area health officials warn of rising measles cases
Health officials in Oregon and California are warning about an “unprecedented” shift in measles cases in the United States.
Iggy Pop, John Waters, and more turn Mosswood Meltdown into a punk party
The Return of Jackie and Judy, Bikini Kill, and more featured at this year’s California festival.
Fire at Sparks commercial business sends thick smoke over Byars Lane
News4 NBC Reno covers news, sports, weather and traffic for the Reno, Nevada area including Sparks, Carson City, Virginia City, Silver City, Stagecoach, Silver Springs, Sun Valley, Cold Springs, Spanish Springs and Fenley, Nevada and Truckee and Tahoe City, California.
Measles surge puts West Coast health departments on alert
With U.S. measles cases nearing last year’s total, California and Oregon officials said Tuesday that fragile public health systems may struggle to handle new infections.
CSP-Solano mourns loss of Kevin Thomas, health records tech
Kevin Thomas, a health records technician at California State Prison-Solano, passed away June 22, 2026. He worked at Solano since 2020.
Trump administration deferring Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota
California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom accused the administration of targeting it for political reasons
Trump administration deferring Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota
California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom accused the administration of targeting it for political reasons
Sony Music Entertainment files new lawsuit against AI startup Udio
Sony Music Entertainment on Monday filed a new lawsuit against AI startup Udio, alleging the company infringed on the copyrights of more than 30,000 recordings.
US Health Secretary Kennedy says CMS is pausing Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota
The Trump administration is pausing over $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota "because of suspected fraud and noncompliance," U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. said on Tuesday.
US Health Secretary Kennedy Says CMS Is Pausing Medicaid Payments to California and Minnesota
July 21 (Reuters) - The Trump administration is pausing over $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota "because of suspected fraud and noncompliance," U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. said on Tuesday. "If those states want that money they need to ...
Trump's 50% Canada tariffs risk higher prices and fresh political fallout
President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, declaring that Canada has unfairly discriminated against American autos, alcohol and dairy products
'Support A Sport' helps young adults with disabilities achieve their goals
The mission of a Support A Sport is to get more kids with disabilities on the field to achieve their goals.
'Support A Sport' helps young adults with disabilities achieve their goals
The mission of a Support A Sport is to get more kids with disabilities on the field to achieve their goals.
Biggs Institute at UT Health San Antonio to lead $2.5 million national, multi-site study on dementia with Lewy bodies
Teaming with UF, UCSF and VCU to improve detection, bring hope Contacts: UT Health San Antonio, Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu University of Florida, Jill Pease, (352) 273-5816, jpease@PHHP.UFL.EDU University of California San Francisco, Suzanne Leigh, (415) 476-2993, suzanne.leigh@ucsf.edu Virginia Commonwealth University, Leigh Farmer, (804) 828-7028, forresterlg@vcu.edu SAN ANTONIO, July 21, 2026 – The Glenn […]
Forest Service overhaul puts wildfire science on chopping block
A third of the research offices the agency is evaluating to possibly close works in climate adaptation and wildfire prevention.
Five years after a $82 million IPO, Jungo sells its business for just $300,000
Israeli driver-monitoring startup will become a stock market shell after transferring its operations to controlling shareholder Ophir Herbst, while retaining roughly $9.8 million in cash.
California’s Business Tax Credit Cap Needs More Targeted Changes
California’s scramble to rework its business tax credit cap shows that the state is directionally correct to resist subsidy bidding wars but wrong to rewrite the economics of credits already issued after companies have already relied on them, writes Andrew Leahey.
A quarter-century of baseball, hoops — and scaling walls of ice? Denver Sports Commission celebrates 25 years
The group responsible for bringing sporting events to Colorado says there’s more fun on the horizon.
Bonta says Paramount litigation isn’t ‘anti-Trump’
The California attorney general insisted in an interview with POLITICO that his antitrust litigation is about competition, not politics.
Taylor Farms political donations questioned amid cyclosporiasis outbreak
(FOX40.COM) — Past political donations from Taylor Farms are raising eyebrows as the California-based produce supplier is tied to an ongoing parasitic outbreak. Over the weekend, the U.S. Food and …
Forest Service overhaul puts wildfire science on chopping block
A third of the research offices the agency is evaluating to possibly close work in climate adaptation and wildfire prevention.
Clint Reilly, longtime San Francisco power broker, dies at 79
Clint Reilly advised some of California’s biggest political names, ran for San Francisco mayor and fought to preserve newspaper competition before purchasing the Examiner himself.
Paramount's WBD deal is on pause after judge orders merger delay
A judge issued a temporary restraining order stopping Paramount Skydance's acquisition of WBD after a lawsuit by California and 11 other states.
UCLA Health Training Center
The UCLA Health Training Center is the Los Angeles Lakers’ LEED Platinum home for basketball and business operations in El Segundo, California.
Nissan’s Brake Caliper Colors Aren’t For Decoration, They’re Ranking Your Car
From silver to yellow, Nissan says its brake colors reveal far more than styling choices
This Week: Muni 1 Bus Improvements, Car Free Happy Hour, SF Politics 101
Here is a list of events this week. Tuesday Park Presidio and California Evening Pop-Up. This SFMTA project aims to improve the Muni 1 California bus route from 33rd Avenue to Steiner Street. Come learn about it. Tuesday, July 21, 5:30-6:30 p.m., Corner of Park Presidio and California, S.F. Tuesday East Bay Car Free Happy Hour. Whether you’re car free, car light, car free curious, or just want to hang out with fun people and have nerdy urbanist conversations, everyone is welcome. Tuesday, July 21, 5:30-7 p.m., Drake’s Dealership, 2325 Broadway, Oakland. Wednesday SF Politics 101 with Joel Engardio. SF Politics 101 is an entertaining look at how local politics work and the history that shaped San Francisco — brought to life with visuals and narrative storytelling. Wednesday, July 22, 6-7:15 p.m., SPUR Urban Center, 654 Mission Street, S.F. Friday Woman and Non-Binary Morning Ride. Join the San Francisco Bicycle Coalition for a socially distanced bike ride for women and nonbinary cyclists. Friday, July 24, 7:15-8:45 a.m., McLaren Lodge, 501 Stanyan Street, S.F. Saturday Smart City Cycling 3 — Road Practice. In this class, you’ll go on a guided group ride to practice street-riding skills on increasingly high-volume streets. This class is the third in the Smart City Cycling sequence, and Smart City Cycling 2: Maneuvering is a prerequisite. Saturday, July 25, 10 a.m.-12 p.m., Arguello Extension, Arguello Blvd and Lincoln Way, S.F. Sunday Adult & Teen Learn-to-Ride Workshop. This three-hour workshop is for adults and teens who have not yet learned to ride a bike or would like a refresher on the basics of balancing, pedaling, and steering. Sunday, July 26, Alameda Waterfront Park, 2151 Ferry Point, Alameda. Got an event we should know about? Drop us a line.
California seeks feedback on psychiatric hospital staffing regulations
The California Department of Public Health will hold a stakeholder meeting July 23 from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. to gather feedback on emergency regulations establishing nurse-to-patient staffing standards for acute psychiatric hospitals. Here are three things to know: Read more about the questions for stakeholders here.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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