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San Diego Politics Show: CA-48 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar
Four-time candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar discusses his campaign for CA-48, one of the most-watched races in the country.
Sunday Sports: Thousand Islands Spirits find new home and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Sunday.
Suze Orman: This Overlooked Health Insurance Detail Could Cost You Thousands in 2026
Suze Orman says your maximum out-of-pocket cost is the health insurance detail most people overlook -- and in 2026, that could cost you up to $10,600.
How cutting one costly habit could save small businesses thousands on fuel: expert
High gas prices are squeezing small businesses, but Ford Pro says cutting unnecessary vehicle idling could save fleet operators thousands each year.
2026 Best Business Schools | Total Cost & Scholarships At P&Q’s Ranked Business Schools
Looking at tuition and fees alone, earning a business degree from a ranked program now costs more than $200,000 at 49 U.S. schools,
Letter: Why my business will be closed May 1 for the general strike
May 1, 2026 will mark 140 years since tens of thousands of people gathered in Chicago to fight for workers’ rights, including the eight-hour workday. May
Pols & Politics: Baker makes return trip to Massachusetts this week
Former Massachusetts Governor and current NCAA President Charlie Baker will be making a return trip to the Bay State this week as the featured speaker at a luncheon in Boston.
How Pa.'s falling school vaccination rates and enforcement failures put thousands of children at risk
A six-month Pittsburgh Post-Gazette investigation found that school leaders have allowed thousands of children into schools without all the required vaccines even though they had no special exemptions that let them forgo the shots on religious or philosophical grounds — a violation of state vaccine laws.
Trump Justice Department exodus hinders prosecutions, ex-officials say
The exit of thousands of DOJ lawyers weakens law enforcement for many years to come, former DOJ lawyers told USA TODAY.
Alleged burglars break in, steal thousands from businesses on Indy’s northwest side
INDIANAPOLIS — The Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department is investigating a string of early morning break-ins on the northwest side of the city. A police report lists five businesses in Pike …
Denver Nuggets, Colorado Rapids bring over 90,000 sports fans to the metro area Saturday
Those in Denver on Saturday likely noticed it was a little more crowded than usual. It wasn't just the nice weather; two big sports games brought tens of thousands of fans to the stands.
Over a thousand entertainment leaders sign letter supporting Israel’s Eurovision participation
Over 1,000 entertainment industry leaders sign letter backing Israel’s inclusion in Eurovision, rejecting boycott efforts and emphasizing music’s unifying power.
Briggs: Our takeaways from Toledo football's promising first spring under Mike Jacobs
The Toledo football team wrapped up spring practice Saturday in front of a couple thousand fans at the Glass Bowl, where the sun began to sneak through the ...
Fox News Entertainment Newsletter: Heather Locklear dating Lorenzo Lamas, reality star suffered stroke
The Fox News Entertainment Newsletter brings you the latest Hollywood headlines, celebrity interviews and stories from Los Angeles and beyond.
How to make a high-deductible health plan work for you
How do you prepare for thousands of dollars in upfront costs? One option is a health savings account, or HSA.
How to make a high-deductible health plan work for you
How do you prepare for thousands of dollars in upfront costs? One option is a health savings account, or HSA.
How an unsolved medical mystery became a life-saving breakthrough
Inside the deadly disease confounding medicine, researchers piecing together clues and the breakthrough that meant survival for thousands of patients.
The Help That Many Older Americans Need Most
With shortages of medical professionals and an aging population, thousands of community health care workers prevent older adults from falling through the cracks.
From son of immigrants to National Medal of Science: How this Rice professor is changing lives
As a graduate student, he looked around his math department and realized something was deeply wrong. What he did next changed thousands of lives.
Vacancies for San Diego life science office space remain near record highs
Total leasing activity dropped significantly in the first quarter, with volume falling to 223,000 square feet — almost 50% less than the 2025 quarterly average of 450,000 square feet.
Coachella Weekend Two brings wind, dust and health concerns for festival-goers
INDIO, Calif. (KESQ) - As Coachella’s second weekend gets underway, thousands of festivalgoers are returning to the Empire Polo Club with wind and dust creating new health concerns.Medical professionals say preparation is key, especially with long hours spent outdoors. Dr. Julie Puzzo, Associate Medical Director of the Emergency Department at JFK Memorial Hospital, says hydration
A look at 'super agers' and the science behind longer, sharper lives
For thousands of years, humans have tried to avoid growing old. Billions are spent every year on potions and procedures to make us look younger, feel younger and think younger. It’s a hugely profitable, but ultimately fruitless hunt. But science has started to zero in on some proven techniques. Horizons moderator William Brangham explores that with Dr. Eric Topol and Dr. Sandra Weintraub.
Jeep Beach draws thousands to Daytona, boosts business after spring break concerns
Jeep enthusiasts are rolling into Daytona Beach for the annual Jeep Beach event, expected to draw tens of thousands of vehicles and more than 200,000 visitors.
Grand Rapids business faced with thousands of dollars in damage amid flooding
A small business in Grand Rapids is turning to the community for help after flooding and intense wind in recent weeks filled the space with water damage, debris and disappointment.
Newsom PAC bought thousands of memoir copies about his hardships, juicing sales
Campaign finance filings reveal Gavin Newsom's PAC bought 67,000 copies of his memoir for over $1.5 million amid his 2024 presidential positioning.
Your Spirit Airlines tickets could soon be worthless
Spirit Airlines could collapse within the next week, and that could leave thousands of people with voided tickets.
A “lost world” beneath the North Sea was once full of forests
Long before rising seas swallowed Doggerland beneath the North Sea, this lost landscape may have been a surprisingly lush and life-friendly haven. New DNA evidence reveals that forests of oak, elm, and hazel were already thriving there more than 16,000 years ago—thousands of years earlier than scientists thought possible. Even more astonishing, researchers detected traces of a tree species believed to have vanished from the region hundreds of thousands of years ago.
Gaslamp business owner speaks out after vandalism caught on camera
A small business owner in San Diego’s Gaslamp Quarter is calling for increased police patrols after his office was vandalized, highlighting the need for increased safety and awareness in the …
Repeat break-ins cost east Las Vegas business owner thousands
A Las Vegas business owner on the east side of the valley said repeat break-ins are costing her thousands of dollars in property damage.
Company employs, helps formerly incarcerated find work, get a second chance
One Sandhills business is stepping up to help those with records reenter the workforce and rebuild their lives.
Editorial: 11 Sports Director Gerry Sandusky retires
After more than four remarkable decades in broadcasting, WBAL-TV 11 Sports Director Gerry Sandusky is stepping away from the microphone.
Gov. Sanders announces appointments - Talk Business & Politics
Gov. Sarah Sanders announced Thursday (April 16) the following appointments to state boards and commissions. Arkansas Commission on Law Enforcement Standards and Training Jeffery Hagar, Sherwood, to the Arkansas Commission...
New Tomodachi Life Website Tools to Track and Inspire Your Miis
Tomodachi Life: Living The Dream has hit the physical and digital video game stores worldwide! The game is a perfect sandbox life simulator with many
House considers bill to protect Haitian immigrants, in pushback against Trump administration
WASHINGTON (AP) — In a rare bipartisan moment, the House has agreed to consider legislation that would extend temporary protections for Haitian immigrants, pushing back against the Trump administration’s efforts to end the program. The bill expected for a vote Thursday would require the Trump administration to extend for three years Temporary Protected Status for Haiti, which would allow hundreds of thousands of qualifying immigrants to remain in the U.S. without fear of deportation. House
2026 Best Business Schools | Acceptance & Graduation Rates At The Best Undergraduate Business Schools
How hard is it to get into a top undergraduate business program? How likely are you to graduate once you get in?
Thousands suffer nausea, delirium and other health issues from toxins in the Tijuana River
For decades, billions of gallons of sewage and industrial waste have been dumped into the Tijuana River.
Can you dig it? Everyone was psyched for the groovy Arts for All Gala
ARVADA CENTER FOR THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES Arvada News: Between the sequined mini dresses, platform shoes, go-go boots, paisley prints and bell-bottom pants, the 350 guests at the Arvada Center’s 1970s-themed Arts for All Gala clearly were “right on” in selecting what to wear for a “groovy” night of disco-infused fundraising. “Some of you look like you just walked out of Studio 54,” remarked board member David Martinelli, who chaired the gala with Sandy Hartgens. Hartgens, also […]
Boilermaker Business: How I Narrowed Down My College Options
Emilee Balzer shares how campus visits and personal connections led her to Purdue University's Mitch Daniels School of Business.
Greater Wausau Chamber set to host Business EXPO Thursday
The Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce will host hundreds of exhibitors and thousands of attendees at the organization’s annual Business EXPO on Thursday, April 16.
'Dr. Pimple Popper' Sandra Lee Recalls 1st Signs of Stroke That She Dismissed
At age 55, Lee had a stroke but initially thought she was tired and stressed from filming her reality show and working as a doctor.
Why thousands of 2026 entertainment season workers are one accident away from financial disaster
Thimble reports that gig workers in the 2026 entertainment season face financial risk from accidents due to insufficient insurance coverage.
Why thousands of 2026 entertainment season workers are one accident away from financial disaster
Thimble reports that gig workers in the 2026 entertainment season face financial risk from accidents due to insufficient insurance coverage.
Pokémon Go Fans Use Government Maps to Hunt Snakes
Pokémon Go fans are wrestling with U.S. government geographic data to find a newly-released creature: Silicobra, the sand snake Pokémon.
Ousmane Diomande: United’s plan for Sporting gem emerges
Manchester United’s defeat at the hands of Leeds United underlined just how thin and weak their backline is.Leny Yoro started alongside Lisandro Martinez in the absence of Harry Maguire. Dominic Cal...
National Research SLAM showcases science, research policy impact
We want to convey that science is so important to our nation and work we do across the national labs impacts the people in our country," Antonya Sanders said.
NFL Draft in Pittsburgh expected to boost business in nearby Weirton
The NFL draft will take over the city of Pittsburgh next week, with hundreds of thousands of visitors expected in town for the event.While the bulk of the actio
Someone planted backdoors in dozens of WordPress plugins used in thousands of websites
Dozens of WordPress plugins were allegedly hijacked to push malware after they were sold to a new corporate owner.
Former parish business manager admits to stealing thousands
Prosecutors say Keith Call has paid back money stolen all-local local-news wben | WBEN
How Georgetown Graduates Turn Sustainability Into Better Business Decisions
Read more news, MBA rankings, and all things related to business education in the Poets&Quants section for
What Is Business For? The Question Strategic Management Has Never Answered
The field of strategic management has grown more rigorous – and less relevant – as it avoids the question of business purpose.
Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce to host annual Business EXPO
The Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce will host hundreds of exhibitors and thousands of attendees at the organization’s annual Business EXPO on Thursday.
Businesses look back at a week fueled by Merrie Monarch rush
With thousands flying into Hawaii Island, it’s a crucial sales week for local businesses, but many are navigating steep prices and high operating costs.
Health aide ordered to pay back client's money instead spent thousands on trip, renovations
Fatumata Jaiteh took the stand for the first time in the case
Nevada investigators: Man defrauded Las Vegas sports betting investors
Investigators in Nevada allege a man defrauded investors out of tens of thousands of dollars as part of a Las Vegas sports betting scheme, the 8 News Now Investigators have learned.
How U.S. News Ranks Business Schools By MBA Specialization In 2026
Babson President Stephen Spinelli talks to P&Q about the end of his school's 32-year streak as the top-ranked entrepreneurship program.
First Three Episodes of “BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War - The Calamity” Exclusively Head to U.S. Theatres Before Broadcast and Streaming from VIZ Media and Fathom Entertainment On June 25-29
Fathom Entertainment First Three Episodes of “BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War - The Calamity” Exclusively Head to U.S. Theatres Before Broadcast and Streaming from VIZ Media and Fathom Entertainment On June 25-29
Celina small businesses frustrated over repeated power outages, leading to thousands in losses
Sustainability At ESMT Berlin: Bees & Business Lessons
Learn about sustainability at ESMT, from bee-friendly gardens & solar initiatives, to master's & MBA students’ consulting projects.
Opinion: I was recruited to play a sport here, but first, my family had to pay for it
It was a hot summer day in east Long Island. Hundreds of kids and parents from across the country piled into a sports complex consisting of four adjacent turf baseball fields. The gates were manned by a brigade of staff who were commandeering the large crowd. “Are these credentials right?” they asked as they showed...
82 NASA missions at risk under new proposal
Proposed NASA cuts would reduce NASA’s workforce by thousands and cancel over 50 space missions.
Grinnell College sports social media teams bring the game online
DJ Damazo, assistant men’s basketball coach, said that about three years ago, the basketball team didn’t have a social media page at all. “I thought we were missing out on a chance to market our program to other students at Grinnell and probably, more importantly, like recruits,” Damazo said. Damazo decided to find students to...
2026 Best Business Schools | Average SAT, ACT & GPA Scores At The Top B-Schools
What does it take to get into a top-ranked undergraduate business program? All the SAT, ACT & GPA data from our 2026 ranking.
This week in PC games: sci-fi shooter Pragmata, 2.5D platformer Replaced, and the most wishlisted game on Steam compete with illuminated manuscripts
All the biggest and most interesting PC games out this week, inlcuding pirate sandbox Windrose, sci-fi adventure Pragmata, and 2.5D platformer Replaced.
Sanders joins Mamdani at rally marking 100 days in office
Mamdani announced plans to speed up buses across the city.
Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the shores of Presque Isle
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District, has just released a very interesting video named ‘Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the Shores of Presque Isle’. This video shows how the Buffalo District – using modern technology and hands-on expertise – fights erosion and protects the coastline of Presque Isle for the future: This content […]
Memorial Health Foundation fashion show raises over $142K
The Memorial Health Foundation 21st annual Fashion Show, this year with a Masquerade Ball theme, drew a large crowd and raised more than $142,000, with proceeds supporting local cancer patients and related health initiatives. The annual fundraiser supports the foundation’s cancer patient emergency fund and breast health initiatives, helping individuals undergoing treatment with expenses such […]
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Mamdani Embraces Socialist ‘Pothole Politics’ in Knockdown Center Barn Burner
The mayor marked his first 100 days on the job in an event aimed at celebrating city workers while extending the energy of his successful campaign — with a surprise appearance by Sen. Benie Sanders.
Sunday Sports: Thousand Island Spirits still in need of a home and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Sunday.
Santee business owner arrested after threatening to shoot deputies
Authorities spotted Robert Sanford, 43, apparently armed with a handgun, entering his business suite on Rockville Street
Stanford Health, Alameda County forge new partnership for St. Rose Hospital
Alameda County leaders and health care groups gathered outside St. Rose Hospital last week to announce an expansion to medical services for thousands of East Bay residents.
Pittsburgh plans entertainment, block party for pedestrians walking through the NFL Draft
Jeremy Waldrup, head of the Pittsburgh Downtown Partnership, has some advice for the several hundred thousand people who visit the city next week for the...
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
Deion Sanders gives encouraging health update at Colorado spring game
Deion Sanders returned to the field for the Buffaloes' spring game after dealing with blood clots, and he provided a positive update on his health.
Sandy Lyle recalls Jack Nicklaus's 1986 Masters win
Sandy Lyle recalls playing with Jack Nicklaus during his legendary 1986 Masters win and what he learned from it.
Many La Jolla students win big at regional science fair
Nearly 30 kids attending local schools win first-place awards and five are named Grand Award winners or runners-up
10 Vintage Plates That Are Worth a Small Fortune
Vintage dining ware from these 10 makers has become highly collectible, often selling for thousands. See which creators' pieces are most valuable today.
Pols & Politics: Romney, Patrick, Dukakis, Weld, and Healey to celebrate 20 years of MassHealth
A group of former Massachusetts governors will be joining Gov. Healey in Boston to celebrate 20 years of public health insurance as two of three GOP gubernatorial candidates gear up for a debate.
Deion Sanders says he's in good health during Colorado's spring game
A year after being diagnosed with bladder cancer, Deion Sanders insists he's in good health.
Exit Interview: John Byrne On Building Poets&Quants, Breaking Big Stories & What Business Education Really Needs
As he steps away, P&Q’s founder reflects on 16 years of growth, impact, and the evolution of business education.
Deion Sanders back on the field at Colorado's spring game
After a season that saw Colorado go 3-9, Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders, 58, was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage on Saturday at the spring game, telling reporters that "I'm good, I'm good," after being diagnosed with bladder cancer last year.
Colorado's Deion Sanders eager to be more hands-on heading into next season after health concerns
Colorado coach Deion Sanders was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage Saturday at the spring game.
Colorado's Deion Sanders eager to be more hands-on heading into next season after health concerns
Deion Sanders Offers Health Update After Colorado's Spring Game
Following his NFL career, Colorado Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders has had a few complications with his health, which have included blood clots and bladder cancer
Spotlighting local women in business
4 share their stories, offer tips for success
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
If You Visit JoJo’s Diner, Bring Your Appetite
By Stefan Yablonski Q: When did you open? A: We opened Oct. 1. Q: Did you have a previous business? A: This is my first business ever. Q: So why did you start this? A: I was cooking for people my entire life and I decided I’m just going to try it on my own. And here we are! Q: How’s business been? A: It’s been good. Kind of slow over the winter, but starting to pick up now that the weather is getting better. We have high hopes for spring. We were really hopping over the weekend when it was much nicer out. Q: What’s your best dish? A: Our junkyard plates are our huge specialty. It’s a huge messy plate of goodness. We also have breakfast sandwiches, waffles, smashburgers and more. Q: Do you own this building? A: We lease from Chuck Burger. He’s our landlord. He has been super helpful. He provided all the equipment. I didn’t have to. Q: You’re a breakfast spot? A: We do breakfast and lunch all day. It’s kind of our thing. We are open 7-3 every day except Tuesdays. Q: How big is your staff? A: Currently it’s one other person. It’s just been me on the front end and someone in the kitchen or vice versa. Q: It’s all to go? A: Everything comes out ‘to go’ — served in to-go containers. You can eat inside or you can take it with you. We don’t have to provide extra staff for waitresses and dishwashers and all that. Q: Do you have any business background? A: I did the small business program at the college. But that’s about it. We’re new, but we’re still building. We hope to grow and stay here for a long time.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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