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Kalshi fines 3 congressional candidates for wagering on their own elections
It is the latest high-profile case of alleged insider trading on prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
How low can Ohio go? The gubernatorial race might show us
Ohio governor candidates on the right seem determined to answer one question: How low can you go and still get elected?
Chelsea: No shortlist and no No 1 candidate to replace sacked Liam Rosenior - what's next at Stamford Bridge?
Candidates for California Governor Debate: 5 Takeaways
The nonpartisan primary remains volatile after the departure of Eric Swalwell. A televised debate featured six leading candidates, but produced few fireworks.
New Mexico governor candidates debate economic growth, business plans in Santa Fe
Five candidates hoping to become the next governor of New Mexico stated their case to voters at a forum Wednesday evening in Santa Fe.
Kalshi fines & suspends 3 political candidates for betting on their own campaigns
The prediction market platform Kalshi is cracking down on insider trading by political candidates. On Wednesday.
Four women accuse Eva Lopez Chavez, a SLC Council member, of unwanted ‘sexual’ advances
Four women from Utah political circles accuse Eva Lopez Chavez, a Salt Lake City Council member and Democratic congressional candidate, of what they consider unwanted sexual advances.
BH candidates talk business at first forum - Beverly Press & Park Labrea News
The Beverly Hills Chamber of Commerce on April 16 hosted a candidate forum for the upcoming Beverly Hills...
Kalshi fines, suspends political candidates for trading on own races
The cases were flagged by Kalshi’s new safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections.
Kalshi Fines and Suspends 3 Political Candidates for Betting on Their Races
The prediction market said the candidates violated new rules as it faces growing scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators over how political betting is policed.
Predictions Marketplace Fines Three Candidates for ‘Political Insider Trading’
One congressional hopeful said he had no plans to pay the fine: “I’ll take them to court if I have to.”
Kalshi Bans And Fines Three Politicians For Placing Bets On Their Own Races
The prediction market issued fines and five-year bans for political candidates in Minnesota, Virginia and Texas.
Kalshi suspends 3 political candidates for betting on own races
Kalshi has suspended three political candidates for betting on their own races, the prediction market platform announced Wednesday. Minnesota congressional candidate and state Sen. Matt Klein (D) a…
Kalshi suspends 3 U.S. congressional candidates for ‘political insider trading’
WASHINGTON >> Prediction markets platform Kalshi said today it has suspended three U.S. congressional candidates for “political insider trading,” building on its efforts to block politicians and athletes from betting on contests in which they are involved.
Kalshi suspends 3 political candidates for trading on their elections
Kalshi said it had issued fines and given a five-year suspension to 3 political candidates who made trades related to their own elections.
Live stream tonight, California’s top governor candidates debate
(NEXSTAR) — The leading candidates in the race to become California’s next governor will face off in a live debate airing on Nexstar stations statewide tonight at 7 p.m. The 90-minute debate,…
Kalshi prediction site suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races
The prediction market suspended them from its platform on Wednesday for “political insider trading” after allegedly betting on their own campaigns.
Enforcement update: Kalshi continues crackdown on political insider trading
Three cases target candidates trading on their own races.
As Democrats Outraise Republican Candidates, the G.O.P. Has This $600 Million Edge
Even as the party faces a worrisome political environment and its candidates are outraised by Democratic ones, powerful Republican groups and super PACs have built a colossal advantage.
iSchool Doctoral Students and Faculty Team Explore AI Use in Healthcare at KCHC
How does artificial intelligence (AI) impact how people take care of their health? On April 2-4, Florida State University (FSU) School of Information (iSchool) Ph.D. candidate Yuanying Pang addressed this question, representing her research team at the Kentucky Conference on Health Communication (KCHC) in Lexington, Kentucky. Their poster presentation, “Understanding How People Use Generative AI…
Senate hopeful Graham Platner calls to investigate Trump and impeach two Supreme Court justices
The underdog Maine candidate, who has risen in polls, told NBC News he wants to carry on the legacy of Bernie Sanders and push Democrats to be more aggressive.
‘Big AI’s #1 target’: Candidate for Congress speaks out about battling AI CEOs
Candidates pitch economic ideas, youth retention at ‘Voting For Business’ forum
WHEELING — Local candidates seeking seats in the West Virginia Legislature provided their thoughts Thursday night on how best to attract jobs to the Mountain State while also providing opportunities for youth to remain in the state. The Wheeling Area Chamber of Commerce, along with Regional Economic Development (RED) and WTOV-TV, sponsored the “Voting For […]
‘Martyrs’: Michigan Dems nominate Hezbollah-praising candidate after ousting Jewish regent
Amir Makled, who reportedly shared posts praising Hezbollah leaders as 'martyrs,' won Michigan Democrats' nomination for University of Michigan regent.
Three URI students awarded prestigious National Science Foundation graduate research fellowships
KINGSTON, R.I. – April 21, 2026 – Three students from the University of Rhode Island were selected from a highly competitive pool of candidates for the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program for the 2026-27 academic year. David Amirsadri and Colby Constantine, who earned bachelor’s degrees in chemical engineering from URI last spring, and […]
Live Results: Virginia redistricting special election
There aren’t any candidates on the ballot in Virginia’s statewide special election on Tuesday, but the contest could still decide control of the closely divided U.S. House this fall.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Could AG Todd Rokita's 'powerful' endorsement sway these primary races?
The conservative attorney general is lending his endorsement to several candidates this cycle, including those going up against incumbents.
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Former state Controller Betty Yee drops out of the governor's race
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Graham Platner nets another endorsement in high-interest Maine Senate race
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Jay Collins remains in Governor's race, says he's buying ads to prove it
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Gov. Lee signs a law banning TennCare coverage for gender transitions and Andrew Yang's Forward Party endorses a gubernatorial candidate.
Lt. Gov. Gilchrist wins Democratic nomination for secretary of state
Michigan Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II as their candidate for secretary of state at a convention in Detroit on Sunday.
San Diego Politics Show: CA-48 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar
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North Texas political shuffle: Dallas GOP chair resigns, AG candidates clash, and Fort Worth eyes $8
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SF tech millionaire spends big in race for Congress.
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Crosby's CEO explains why he interviews candidates on Sundays
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GOP leaders have finalized who will make the cut for the upcoming Republican gubernatorial debate — a decision that could shape the race before many voters fully tune in ahead of the June primary.
These candidates for governor support single-payer health care in California
Three candidates for California Governor, Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, and Xavier Becerra, have publicly expressed their support for single-payer health care, which would provide free, universal healt…
Hungary’s Magyar demands vote rerun in constituency with namesake politician
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Two more Reform local election candidates accused of offensive posts
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Colorado Politics Calendar Apr. 20-26
CoPo’s weekly political calendar helps you find political and public policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
Purplish: Who’s on the primary ballot and what did it take for them to get there
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6 candidates confirmed for next week’s Inside California Politics California governor’s debate
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Hundreds of Candidates Put the “Science” in “Political Science”
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Cyprus: Global politics felt at Candidates chess tournaments
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California Democrats can’t decide on a governor. Don’t count on Newsom or Pelosi for help
Even with Rep. Eric Swalwell’s downfall, California Democrats face a glut of gubernatorial options. Party heavyweights won’t save the day.
Rewriting political memory in Chile
Chile has elected extreme-right candidate José Antonio Kast as its new president. His victory, argues Anitta Kynsilehto, may reflect a broader process of rewriting political memory in the post-dictatorship era, suggesting that Chileans' memories of 'never again' moments are beginning to fade
Here are the Republicans running for Congress in Ohio's 1st District
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A Hamilton County commissioner primary debate featured sparring between three Democratic candidates about public safety and affordable housing.
Top 5: UFC Winnipeg ‘Fight of the Night’ candidates
A crowd-pleasing style had Kyler Phillips on the brink of contention in the Ultimate Fighting Championship bantamweight division not that long ago.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin weighs in on New York politics
The former 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate cautioned New York lawmakers from backing tax hikes.
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A seat in the U.S. House is up for grabs in a special election for New Jersey's 11th District. Follow along live.
Boomers won't run politics forever. Gen Z isn't ready.
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Get Real With SOMD Politics: Chuck Borges Discusses Housing Affordability, Economic Development And Tax Reform
ANNAPOLIS, Md. — On a recent episode of “Get Real with Southern Maryland Politics,” host Chris Hill sat down with state Senate District 29 candidate Chuck Borges for a wide-ranging discussion about his background, career, and priorities for Southern Maryland. Borges, a 23-year U.S. Navy veteran, said he came to Southern Maryland in 2004 for test pilot […]
Seeing women govern encourages support for women in politics – with no apparent backlash among men
After the main Namibian party started alternating candidates between men and women, female representation in the National Assembly nearly doubled.
SRP councilman had donated $200K to Turning Point before elections
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One week out from the NFL Draft: Intel, rumors and what we're hearing
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Meet the Democrats running for Hamilton County commissioner
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Paul Renner rolls out plan to eliminate homestead taxes, cut business taxes, provide relief for renters
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Get Real With SOMD Politics: Michael Bennett Discusses Data Centers, Housing And Taxes
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Public Health Students Present Research at Health Equity Symposium - University of New Haven
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Voters ousted 3 politicians in Portland’s most purple county. Now they want comebacks
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In Charlotte, Kamala Harris calls out Trump’s ‘obviously wrong’ Pope Leo post
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Gambling companies funnel money into ballot measures to legalize online sports betting – and to individual candidates
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Get Real With SOMD Politics: Roy Alvey Discusses Spending, Development And County Priorities
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JD Vance Would Make a Horrible Presidential Candidate
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Get Money Out of Politics
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Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
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