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Clarence Thomas Wouldn’t Know What Progressivism Was If It Smacked Him on the Head
The Supreme Court justice gave a talk in Texas that was just plain absurd.
How Elizabeta Gjorgievska Joshevski built a global tech career and is now shaping AI strategy for enterprises
Elizabeta Gjorgievska Joshevski explains how EverCognitive helps companies approach AI transformation with strategy, readiness, and measurable business outcomes.
Participation, Debate and Community: Exploring Ancient Democratic Values in Modern Society | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Associate Professor of Classics Benjamin Keim explains what our methods for assessing potential officeholders have in common with those of the ancient Athenians.
Why Promising Cancer Drugs Failed: Scientists Uncover the Missing Piece
A new study helps explain why a promising class of cancer drugs has often failed to meet expectations in clinical trials.
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
The making of modern science
Any history of the West's scientific revolution must explain how science generates new discoveries and ways of thinking about the natural world. Social-constructivist approaches have failed to provide a convincing account.
The science behind the flu
As flu season lingers unusually late, UAB experts explain how influenza spreads, why symptoms occur, which prevention strategies truly work, and when vaccination, antivirals and medical care can help reduce severe illness and complications.
Deadline Hollywood
CBS Entertainment President Amy Reisenbach explains why they went with 'NCIS: New York' and did not consider picking up 'Tony & Ziva' for next season. Read more below.
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
Google’s new Fitbit band has continued hiding in plain sight, software too [Gallery]
Google is working on a new Fitbit tracking band in the same vein as the popular Whoop band, and it’s...
DNI Tulsi Gabbard sends criminal referral over Trump’s 2019 impeachment to Justice Department
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sent at least one criminal referral to the Justice Department seeking investigations of a whistleblower complaint and its handling by the intelligence community watchdog that led to the 2019 impeachment of President Donald Trump, a spokesperson for Gabbard’s office confirmed Wednesday.
The value of free health insurance: Evidence from Mexico’s Seguro Popular
Expanding free health insurance is central to universal health coverage, but its impact depends on how households value it. This column examines Mexico’s Seguro Popular and shows that households value the programme less than its fiscal cost. This helps explain why its effects on labour markets were modest and suggests that overall welfare gains may be smaller than often assumed, despite the programme’s large expansion in coverage.
Scientists Think Dark Matter May Be Filling Our Galaxy With Mysterious Light
No theory could explain the slight excess of far-ultraviolet light in the Milky Way until now.
‘The Testaments’: Is June Osborne a Threat to Agnes?
Amy Seimetz explains why Paula fears June Osborne's legacy.
Private credit's $20 billion redemption rush in 3 charts
Private credit redemptions reached record levels in the first quarter of this year, and these charts explain how investors asked for about $20 billion back.
Grok’s sexual deepfakes almost got it banned from Apple’s App Store. Almost.
The back-and-forth explains xAI’s confusing policy changes.
Want a Cheat Code for Starting a Business? A New Study of 1,334 Cities Suggests It's Hiding in Plain Sight
I like things that are easy.
Jarren Duran explains obscene gesture after fan’s mental health heckle
The incident occurred in the fifth inning of the Sox’ 6-0 loss to the Twins.
Kent trucking owner challenges ‘millionaires tax,' explains small business impact
Scientists just solved a 160-million-year fossil mystery “I’ve never seen anything like it”
A rare fossil discovery is shedding light on the “missing years” of early sponge evolution. Scientists found a 550-million-year-old sponge that likely lacked hard skeletal parts, explaining why earlier fossils are so scarce. This supports the idea that the earliest sponges were soft-bodied and rarely preserved. The finding changes how researchers hunt for the origins of animal life.
Inside Iowa Politics: How Republican pushes for change but continue GOP leadership
Zach Lahn, a Republican from Belle Plaine running for governor, is pushing for changes as he hopes to continue Republican leadership in the state.
Inside Iowa Politics: How Republican pushes for change but continue GOP leadership
Zach Lahn, a Republican from Belle Plaine running for governor, is pushing for changes as he hopes to continue Republican leadership in the state.
Inside Iowa Politics: How Republican pushes for change but continue GOP leadership
Zach Lahn, a Republican from Belle Plaine running for governor, is pushing for changes as he hopes to continue Republican leadership in the state.
Mercer Health Recognizes Volunteers at Annual Appreciation Banquet
The Volunteer Association of Mercer Health held its annual Volunteer Appreciation Banquet to celebrate the dedication and impact of its members on April 13, 2026, at Romer’s Catering in St. Henry. The evening opened with an invocation from Volunteer Chaplain Steve Broering, followed by a year‑in‑review from Volunteer Association Vice‑Chairperson Terry Liette. Mercer Health CEO […]
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting as Trump seeks to limit it
The 30-second message features a variety of voters, among them a busy farmer and a flight attendant, explaining why they cast their ballots by mail.
BlackRock sees opportunity for growth in private credit "shakeout"
There may be some private credit losers in the future, but doesn't plan to be one of them. On their Q1 analyst call, Fink and co explained why they will win.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting
The 30-second union ad features voters explaining why they vote by mail and will start airing in Ohio this week
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
What They Are Saying: Small Business Owners Share How They’re Using 20% Small Business Deduction Savings
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 14, 2026) – In a new video, NFIB member and Texas small business owner, Marcie Rodriguez, describes how making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent has benefited her metal recycling company. Rodriguez explains how the deduction has allowed her to plan raises for employe
Health expert explains preparing teens with autism for adulthood amid limited adult services
April is Autism Awareness Month, and on Tuesday, we focused on what comes next as your child grows into adulthood.
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
Cherry Creek school district plays defense
Cherry Creek Schools is a shadow of its former self. When I graduated from Grandview High School in 2008, the district still earned its motto: “Dedicated to Excellence.” These days, Colorado’s fourth-largest district clings to that antiquated reputation even as it unravels in plain sight. Facing a nearly $20 million shortfall on an $840 million budget this […]
Asking Eric: ‘Extremely online’ girlfriend shares too much
My friend sent me some of the links ... it wasn’t bad stuff, per se. Just her talking about going out to dinner with me or complaining about how I sleep ...
Scientists Challenge Black Hole Theory, Say Dark Matter Core May Lie At Centre Of Milky Way
Lead author Valentina Crespi explained that this dense dark matter core could bend light so strongly that it creates a dark region in the centre.
Why most Indians don’t have naturally pink lips: The science explained
We have been fed this idea of “naturally pink lips” for way too long. It’s one of those beauty standards that gets pushed everywhere but doesn't actua.
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
House DFL hopeful that small-business relief from Operation Metro Surge could get GOP votes
Minnesota’s House Ways and Means Committee heard testimony from several business owners, school district members, and city leaders on Monday, as testifiers explained the impact of Operation Metro Surge on their respective spaces.
House DFL hopeful that small-business relief from Operation Metro Surge could get GOP votes
Minnesota’s House Ways and Means Committee heard testimony from several business owners, school district members, and city leaders on Monday, as testifiers explained the impact of Operation Metro Surge on their respective spaces.
Universe is expanding faster than expected: Scientists struggle to explain cosmic acceleration
Science News: Not only is the Universe expanding, but its expansion is actually happening at a speed higher than was thought possible until recently. For many years.
Former Naughty Dog Dev Recalls Crunch Culture for Games Like The Last of Us and Uncharted
Former Naughty Dog designer Benson Russell has explained how the developer eventually began to believe workplace crunch was necessary to make games like The Last of Us at its "level."
Eric Swalwell’s downfall, explained
The accusations that forced out the frontrunner in California’s governor race — and could push him from Congress next.
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
‘The Pitt’s Noah Wyle Reacts to Supriya Ganesh’s Shocking Exit
Wyle also explained why the decision was made to write Ganesh out of the show.
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks
New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.
One UI 9 leak suggests Samsung is listening to our software complaints
Leaked One UI 9 changes point to smarter photo edits, a simpler 'About phone' section, and fluid animations.
Will Musk ever be forced to explain what he did inside DOGE?
Elon Musk was ubiquitous in Washington last spring, wielding unprecedented power helping the Trump administration reshape and, in some cases, dismantle federal agencies across the government.
Why does déjà vu happen, and can science explain it?
Learning with TOI News: You’re walking into a place you’ve never been to before. And yet, for a fleeting moment, it feels known. Not vaguely familiar, but specific, like a me.
South Plainfield HS Environmental Science Club Members Research 100 Years of Plastic
SOUTH PLAINFIELD, NJ - Last month, the Borough turned a century old and members of the South Plainfield High School Environmental Science Club joined in the celebration with a research project that...
Sports Quote of the Day: Muhammad Ali's Confident Affirmation
Muhammad Ali had a timeless quote that helped explain why he was so successful.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress
Functional medicine practitioner Jennifer Gularson highlights how physiological shifts like menopause can trigger significant stress and hormone imbalances.
Science 4 Everyone: Why aren't your plants growing back after the winter?
Are your plants not growing after winter? You aren't alone. Storm Team4 meteorologist Ryan Miller explains why winter conditions affect your plants.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress - and what to do about it
In honor of National Stress Awareness Month, health experts are drawing attention to the internal physiological shifts that contribute to rising stress levels in women, specifically menopause and perimenopause.
What is the Secretary of State responsible for?
Before you vote, we want to explain what exactly the Secretary of State oversees.
This RNA Almost Self-Replicates, Which Could Explain Life's Origins
We're so close to understanding.
Scientists Finally Crack the Mystery of Water’s Strangest Behavior After Decades of Research
A hidden transition between two forms of liquid water may explain its most puzzling properties.
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Non-toxic South Shore brand Minot Candles explains why sustainability is so important to business
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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