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GTA 6 gameplay footage and map appear to leak online, as group seemingly responsible makes demands of Rockstar
Grand Theft Auto 6 has seemingly suffered another gameplay leak ahead of an Extended Look premiere on Netflix next week.
Seminoles Losing Season a Teaching Moment for LB LaVallee
Florida State linebacker Caleb LaVallee has the desire to improve his game, and the losing season suffered by the Seminoles last year was a teaching moment to help LaVallee make those improvements.
GTA 6 Gameplay and Map Appear to Leak Online, Group Reportedly Responsible Threatens Rockstar Over All-Digital Future
Grand Theft Auto 6 appears to have suffered yet another significant leak after what looks like legitimate gameplay videos and an image of the full map appeared online. Rockstar has yet to comment.
Bears QB Tyson Bagent suffered hamstring injury vs. Browns
Bears backup QB Tyson Bagent wasn't spotted at Tuesday's practice after he suffered a hamstring injury in the preseason opener.
Breece Hall suffers non-contact injury at Jets practice
New York Jets running back Breece Hall suffered an injury at practice on Monday.
Cory Mills went from hero to top Democratic target. Can he survive a GOP Primary challenge from Ryan Elijah?
The 2-term incumbent suffered an election cycle of scandals, and now faces 3 GOP challengers.
Arsenal 3-0 Man City: What Maresca said
Enzo Maresca suffered the joint-heaviest defeat by a Manchester City manager in their first game, with Harry Newbould in 1906 the only previous one to lose by 3+ goals (1-4 v Arsenal). City's 0-3 loss is Maresca's joint-heaviest defeat as a manager in English football, having only once previously lost by a 3+ goal margin (Chelsea 0-3 Brighton in February 2025).
Arsenal 3-0 Man City: Did you know?
Arsenal's 3-0 win over Manchester City is the biggest margin of victory in a Community Shield game since 2014, when the Gunners beat the same opponent by the same scoreline. Enzo Maresca suffered the joint-heaviest defeat by a Manchester City manager in their first game, with Harry Newbould in 1906 the only previous one to lose by 3+ goals (1-4 v Arsenal). City's 0-3 loss is Maresca's joint-heaviest defeat as a manager in English football, having only once previously lost by a 3+ goal margin (Chelsea 0-3 Brighton in February 2025).
Djokovic feels the heat in Cincinnati opening defeat
Novak Djokovic suffered in the second set from punishing heat and humidity on Saturday but made a match of it before falling 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 to Argentine Thiago Tirante in what could be the Serb's last appearance at the ATP-WTA Cincinnati Masters. Martin Landaluce beat Matteo Arnaldi 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 to reach a third-round clash against Tirante.
49ers Quarterback Kurtis Rourke Rushed To Hospital After Preseason Opener
The San Francisco 49ers suffered a scare following their 19-13 loss to the Tennessee Titans in their preseason opener. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan revealed that quarterback Kurtis Rourke was struggling to breathe on Thursday night. As a result, he was sent to the hospital to undergo imaging and make ...
Packers’ Matt LaFleur Sounds Off on Kicker Situation
The Green Bay Packers kicked off their preseason schedule on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers. When all was said and done, the team suffered a 28-9 defeat.While the games don’t matter, it’s important for a team to see what they have in both the starters they choose to play, but especially young players and […] The post Packers’ Matt LaFleur Sounds Off on Kicker Situation appeared first on HEAVY.
Broncos place offensive lineman on season-ending injured reserve
"I feel bad for him and where he was at," Broncos coach Sean Payton said after center Michael Deiter suffered a season-ending quad injury.
‘The Gentlemen’ ransomware gang takes over hospital Facebook after cyberattack
AnMed, a nonprofit health system, suffered a data breach in late July that has left some of its systems still offline. Now, an infamous hacker group is claiming credit for the attack in an unusual way.
‘Gross negligence’ alleged at Iowa mental health facility
Former mental health workers sue state over injuries suffered on the job.
15M patients impacted by largest healthcare data breach of 2026
DentaQuest, the second-largest dental benefits administrator in the U.S., suffered the record-setting cyberattack in May. A notorious ransomware gang has taken credit for the attack.
📸 Horrific injury in the Copa Libertadores
Tiago Palacios suffered a chilling injury in the match between Estudiantes and Universidad Católica in the Copa Libertadores Round of 16.The Estudiantes player ended up with a huge lump on his face a...
Former U.S. Marine held in Russia for more than 4 years has been released, advocates say
Before he was flown out of Russia, Robert Gilman had been in “a dissociative stupor” for 47 days due to the abuse he has suffered in prison.
Man shot at Durham sports bar
A man suffered life-threatening injuries after being shot in the parking lot of Bralie's Sports Bar & Grill.
Steelers first-round pick Max Iheanachor remains out of practice with no timeline for return
When Steelers rookie offensive tackle Max Iheanachor suffered an injury at practice last week, head coach Mike McCarthy indicated he would be back by Monday.
Kelly Clarkson narrowly avoids a wardrobe malfunction at Vegas show
Kelly Clarkson was on stage at Caesars Palace Las Vegas when her sheer top blew up and she suffered a near-wardrobe malfunction.
‘Highlander’ star Christopher Lambert leaves Pittsburgh fan convention early after health scare
Lambert reportedly suffered a sudden medical emergency and collapsed while signing autographs before being taken from the convention hall via ambulance.
Iran Releases Video Of Mojtaba Khamenei Amid Health Rumours
Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly suffered severe facial and leg injuries in the February 28 US-Israeli attack that killed his father, Ali Khamenei.
Ravens' Jesse Minter Offers Update on Scary Zay Flowers Injury
Baltimore Ravens head coach Jesse Minter revealed that wide receiver Zay Flowers suffered a significant injury during training camp.
Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson healthy and looking to regain Pro Bowl level
After a 2025 when two-time Bears Pro Bowl cornerback Jaylon Johnson suffered through groin surgery and returned to play at less than 100%, the start to this training camp has been viewed as a chance to prove he is fully recovered.
Former Bears defensive back suffers non-contact injury with Bills
Former Bears defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered an apparent non-contact injury during Bills practice on Saturday.
Irish Channel businesses, residents impacted by series of power outages
Business owners tell WDSU they have suffered five outages since May.
Packers rookie OL Jager Burton missing practice with hamstring injury
The Packers are without rookie OL Jager Burton on Thursday due to a new hamstring injury suffered on Wednesday.
Cowboys Newcomer Logs First Injury Concern of Training Camp
New Cowboys safety PJ Locke suffered the first injury of this training camp for the team, but the severity is in question. The post Cowboys Newcomer Logs First Injury Concern of Training Camp appeared first on HEAVY.
Saints' Bresee, Bengals Stewart' and Panthers Brezzell Suffer Leg Injuries
New Orleans Saints DT Bryan Bresee, Cincinnati Bengals DE Shemar Stewart and Panthers WR all suffered leg injuries at training camp.
Kentucky Gov. Beshear demands McConnell ‘prove capacity to serve’ or resign
The Democratic governor criticized the limited communication between the Republican senator and constituents after he suffered a fall.
Steelers Get Good News on Health of OT Broderick Jones
Broderick Jones, the team’s first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, suffered a season-ending neck injury that required surgery last October
Data shows veterans can wait months to see a therapist for the first time. The VA secretary has his own numbers
For decades after serving in the US Air Force, Dennis suffered from sporadic back pain, which he believes stemmed from frequently moving heavy equipment during overseas tours.
Local business looks to help flood victims on Zuni Pueblo
"We are collecting donations of food, clothing, whatever you can bring," said Philana Booqua, whose home suffered damage from the floods.
Three wins out of four for basketball sides
Scotland men's hopes of reaching the quarter-finals of the 3x3 Basketball at the Commonwealth Games suffered a blow with a 21-13 defeat by New Zealand. The Scots had defeated Nigeria 21-16 earlier on Sunday but now sit third in the Pool A table behind Australia and New Zealand. While Scotland have won three of their five games, the two Antipodean sides have won four, with Australia also having a game in hand.
It's Your Business | Beck's announces inventory sale, still hopes to rebuild
A furniture and upholstery business that suffered significant damage during the June 11 tornado is offering up its surviving inventory at a discount as it continues to figure out next
Recap: Sporting KC suffers 4-0 defeat at LAFC
Sporting Kansas City (4-11-2, 14 pts.) suffered a 4-0 defeat against LAFC (10-5-3, 33 pts.) at BMO Stadium on Saturday. Three clinical counter attacks in the first half put Sporting into a halftime deficit before LAFC added a fourth goal late on. Head coach Raphael Wicky made one change from
🚨Breaking: América confirm Brian Rodríguez injury
Through its social media channels, América confirmed that Brian Rodríguez will be sidelined due to injury. "Club América reports that Brian Rodríguez suffered a left knee sprain during training,"...
Twins' Paredes scratched minutes before start with oblique strain
Minnesota Twins right-hander Mike Paredes was scratched from his scheduled start Saturday against the Athletics just minutes before the game was scheduled to begin. Paredes suffered a left oblique strain during warmups, the team said. Left-hander Kendry Rojas replaced Paredes as the starter.
Chiefs’ rookie Mansoor Delane delivers health update
Delane, the 6th-overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft, suffered a shoulder injury during OTAs last month.
Kyle Shanahan injured in car accident: 49ers coach to begin training camp in limited role
Reports say Shanahan suffered a broken nose, three broken ribs, a broken hand, a concussion and required more than 40 stitches to his face after the July 14 crash
Panthers Nic Scourton carted off the field on first day of training camp
Carolina Panthers outside linebacker Nic Scourton suffered a torn ACL in his right knee on the first day of training camp and will be placed on injured reserve, AP says.
Democratic Voters Keep Defying the Party Establishment
The House Democratic campaign arm has stepped up its interventions in high-profile contested primaries. But this week, it suffered its third primary defeat in two months.
Former ‘Bachelor’ producer relearned how to walk after near-fatal brain aneurysm
Former ‘Bachelor’ producer Desiree Duckett relearned how to walk after the near-fatal brain aneurysm she suffered while filming Joan Vassos’ season of ‘The Golden Bachelorette.’
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
2 defendants in Glenwood South violence appear in court, told to stay out of entertainment district
New details revealed in court showed a Raleigh police officer suffered an elbow injury while breaking up a fight allegedly involving the two defendants.
GOP leaders forced to abandon signature veterans benefits bill amid intra-party dispute
Speaker Mike Johnson suffered another humiliating political defeat at the hands of his own party on Thursday when he was forced to abandon plans to pass a veterans’ benefits bill designed to be one of the GOP’s big legislative wins before the midterms.
Even more Central Florida restaurants shut down over health problems
One of the eateries — a Chinese restaurant in Orlando — suffered its fourth closure this year, according to state records.
The Mac Speaks: ‘We’ll Be Back!‘
Don’t give up hope on Conor McGregor just yet. For the first time since his disastrous UFC 329 leg injury (not the broken leg from five years ago) suffered versus Max Holloway, McGregor has gotten in front of a camera and addressed fans directly. On his 38th birthday, McGregor shares a sip of his energy […]
IA: COMMUNITY HELPS BUSINESS AFTER FLOOD & FIRE
Community rallies around Ankeny, IA lawn care business that suffered flooding and fire in the same day
McConnell provides health update after long unexplained absence; says he suffered fall
McConnell is the longest-serving party leader in Senate history.
Jake Paul Faces Backlash After Mocking Conor McGregor's Injury
Jake Paul is certainly not afraid of controversy, and he created some on Saturday night after mocking the knee injury Conor McGregor suffered just seconds into his UFC 329 fight against Max Holloway. The fight marked McGregor’s return after a five-year layoff, but it ended up being one of the more ...
Dodgers drop second straight clunker to Diamondbacks
The All-Star break all of a sudden looks more and more like something the Dodgers need, as they suffered a second blowout loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in as many nights, 9-2 on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. Simply losing consecutive games has been rare for the Dodgers, as this marked just their second two-game […]
Christian Pulisic suffered devastating injury in USMNT loss to Belgium
The United States Men’s National Team saw its World Cup journey come to a disappointing end earlier this week with a lopsided loss to Belgium, but the result wasn’t the only story to emerge from the match. During and after…
Katie Couric Suffered Amnesia in Health Scare
The veteran news anchor shared the experience in a Substack post titled 'The Day I'll Never Remember.'
Questions surround Mitch McConnell’s health, return to Senate
Emergency dispatch audio indicating that someone at Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) home in Washington, D.C., suffered “cardiac arrest” earlier this month has raised questions about when the former …
⚽️ Y! Sports AM: Messi is inevitable
Argentina nearly suffered a stunning upset against Egypt in the Round of 16. Lionel Messi had other plans.
McConnell’s health emergency sparks questions on whether he will return to Senate
Emergency dispatch audio indicating that someone at Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) home in Washington, D.C., suffered “cardiac arrest” earlier this month has raised questions about when the former …
Frankie Grande suffers concussion after prop hits him on the stage during Broadway show
Frankie Grande suffered a gnarly set of injuries, including a concussion, after a prop hit him on stage during a routine performance of ‘Titaníque.” He stars with Deborah Cox and Jim Parsons in the Broadway musical.
Former Afghan ally who died in ICE custody suffered allergic reaction
Mohammad Nazeer Paktiawal, 41, died on March 14 at a Dallas hospital.
England star to miss rest of World Cup after getting injured celebrating win over Mexico
England soccer star Jordan Henderson suffered a "serious" injury following his team's win Sunday night.
Real Madrid forward Rodrygo delivers hopeful recovery update
Physical issues and injuries suffered by their players has been one of the most significant problems that Real Madrid have faced in the last few years, and this problem has undoubtedly played a role i...
Donald Trump's Freedom 250 celebration suffers setback as falling panel nearly crushes dancers
Donald Trump's beleaguered Freedom 250 celebration suffered another potentially disastrous setback on Thursday, when a large panel on the White House main stage fell, nearly crushing a group of dancers.
Campaign for mandatory mental health home visits
Abbey Wright says visits could have helped her dad, who suffered from severe depression.
Houston Rockets Star Alperen Sengun Catches Stray From NBA Rookie
One of the NBA’s best young stars today is Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun.The 23-year-old big man is already a two-time All-Star, averaging 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks last season. He helped the Rockets make the playoffs as the fifth seed.However, the Rockets suffered a disappointing exit at the […] The post Houston Rockets Star Alperen Sengun Catches Stray From NBA Rookie appeared first on HEAVY.
Caitlin Clark Fans Staging Boycott For Saturday's Fever Game
This Saturday's showdown between the Indiana Fever and Los Angeles Sparks has unfortunately lost some of its appeal due to Caitlin Clark's latest injury. Clark suffered a back injury during Wednesday's loss to the Phoenix Mercury. To make matters worse, she was on the receiving end of a cheap shot ...
Sharonville mom raising money for UC Health's ICU patient program after she nearly died
It's been a year since a Sharonville mom suffered a medical emergency days after giving birth to her second child.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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