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Today on Pinstripe Alley

The Yanks are looking to keep the brooms in the closet today.

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Apr 12 • 5:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Sutton's predictions: Sunderland v Tottenham

What's Roberto de Zerbi going to do with Tottenham and how will he set them up? The whole situation is just odd, with De Zerbi securing a five-year contract despite only hanging around for more than two years at one of his previous eight clubs. Sunderland's form at the Stadium of Light has dipped a bit since they lost their unbeaten home record against Liverpool in February, but the Black Cats will be buoyant after beating Newcastle last time out.

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Apr 12 • 5:15 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
3 big questions for Tennessee quarterback battle after spring practice

Josh Heupel spoke in the future tense about the Tennessee quarterback competition. He needs to see more development. Here are factors to consider.

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Apr 12 • 5:06 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
AI health questions? 4 chatbot prompt tips to get the most accurate answers

AI chatbots can still get medical questions wrong, according to new research.

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Apr 12 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • mashable.com
Yankees news: Boone angry with ABS failures

Yanks worst in baseball at challenges; bottom of lineup a Problem; farewell to Winquest; RIP to an old-timer.

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Apr 12 • 5:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Today’s Papers – Shocking Milan, Juventus celebrate

La Gazzetta dello SportInter in Como for the Scudetto. Pio must do a LautaroNapoli in Parma with the comeback dream. Conte: ‘Let’s put pressure.’Great LadyWins in Bergamo and narrows the Champio...

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Apr 12 • 3:50 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off

The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)

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Apr 12 • 3:46 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Kawhi Leonard status for Warriors game emerges after ankle development

Once a dark horse contender, Los Angeles faces turbulence as Kawhi Leonard’s health and headlines cloud their playoff hopes.

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Apr 12 • 3:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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The Daily Hilario: Sunday

Your daily dose of off-topic shenanigans

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Apr 12 • 3:07 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur – Match preview and team news

Roberto De Zerbi makes his Premier League return as Tottenham Hotspur visit Sunderland at the Stadium of Light today.The Italian manager replaces Igor Tudor after a dismal run left Spurs one point abo...

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Apr 12 • 3:05 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chris Bell NFL Draft Profile

Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Bell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.

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Apr 12 • 3:03 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Sooo ... About Last Night

Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]

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Apr 12 • 3:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Captain Clutch completes comeback, Mariners walkoff Astros 8-7

Mariners comeback from 5-run deficit

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Apr 12 • 2:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Scottie Scheffler blitzed Augusta National. And then a reporter's question

Scottie Scheffler played his best-ever Masters round on Saturday.

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Apr 12 • 2:18 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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'Unique piece of women's football history' restored

Restorer Chris Shaw said the book was "a fascinating delve" into Dick, Kerr Ladies football team.

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Apr 12 • 2:16 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Pacoima business owners say Montague Street conditions are driving customers away
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Apr 12 • 2:14 AM EDT • Business • yahoo.com
SDFC's winless run extended, downed 2-1 by Minnesota United

San Diego FC’s winless streak continues to grow, falling in back-to-back matches after a 2-1 Saturday night loss to Minnesota United FC at Snapdragon Stadium.

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Apr 12 • 1:53 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Sharks' Struggles Continue, Fall to Last-Place Canucks in Shootout
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Apr 12 • 1:40 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU

EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]

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Apr 12 • 1:14 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
UFC signs Gable Steveson, announces debut date

It's seemed inevitable, but Gable Steveson is headed to the UFC.

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Apr 12 • 12:55 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Atlanta Braves’ Walt Weiss Shares Spencer Strider Injury Update

Spencer Strider received an important update on Saturday.

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Apr 12 • 12:47 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Illinois football hosts Mom’s Weekend practice

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (WCIA) — Illini football took a break from the traditional spring practice for one that featured a special twist. Amidst mom’s weekend on the U of I campus, players’ moms took to the practice field with their sons for a second straight season. These football families are grateful for the quality time together […]

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Apr 12 • 12:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
UFC 327 live blog: Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg

Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg battle for a vacant UFC title in UFC 327 main event

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Apr 12 • 12:01 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Dodgers home runs back Emmet Sheehan to beat Rangers

Dodgers 6, Nimmo 3

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Apr 11 • 11:49 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Women’s Basketball: Utah G Avery Hjelmstad commits to TCU

The Horned Frogs have now added four players through the portal.

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Apr 11 • 11:35 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Blue Jays add Silver Slugger winner to replace injured George Springer

Toronto had to find someone new.

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Apr 11 • 11:33 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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2026 NFL draft preview: Linebacker prospects and the Arizona Cardinals

Jess Root and Seth Cox talk about linebacker prospects to know for the Arizona Cardinals in the 2026 NFL draft.

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Apr 11 • 11:14 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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White Sox Minor League Update: April 11, 2026

Bham walks it off to bring home the only win in the system

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Apr 11 • 11:09 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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See How the Brewers Suffered Another Loss

The Milwaukee Brewers' skid has extended to four games, and a common theme continues to plague them.

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Apr 11 • 10:55 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Colts Reacts Survey Results

The Horseshoe faithful have spoken!

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Apr 11 • 10:25 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Flyers Postgame Blog: Statement Win; Vladar Bounces Back; Vintage Couturier

The Philadelphia Flyers made a statement on Saturday. It was a dominating 7-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets that lowered […] The post Flyers Postgame Blog: Statement Win; Vladar Bounces Back; Vintage Couturier appeared first on Philly Hockey Now.

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Apr 11 • 10:20 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Mets' Francisco Lindor's defensive miscues, mental mistakes 'hard to explain'
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Apr 11 • 9:45 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Staal Nets Number 20 – Hurricanes 4, Mammoth 1

Jordan Staal notched his 20th goal of the season and the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Utah Mammoth, 4-1 on Saturday evening in Salt Lake City. It was Staal’s first 20 goal season in nine years. The Canes have now won three games in a row and they look like they are certainly peaking at the […]

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Apr 11 • 9:43 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Tigres thrash and outclass Chivas at El Volcán!

Tigres made a statement at El Volcán, thrashing Chivas 4-1. The felines controlled much of the match, handing the Liga MX leaders one of their most painful defeats of the Clausura 2026. The party st...

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Apr 11 • 9:38 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Iowa women's basketball lands All-SEC transfer portal guard

Iowa women's basketball picked up its first impact player out of the transfer portal, landing first-team All-SEC guard Dani Carnegie.

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Apr 11 • 9:36 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Jarred Vanderbilt talks about incident with Lakers coach JJ Redick

Jarred Vanderbilt seems like he has put his heated interaction with Lakers coach JJ Redick in the past.

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Apr 11 • 9:33 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Lakers release injury report for Sunday's game versus Jazz

The Lakers have released their injury report for their regular-season finale on Sunday versus the Jazz.

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Apr 11 • 9:13 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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🚨 Atlético Nacional line-up confirmed

Atlético Nacional plays its second match of the week and arrives at the Atanasio Girardot as the away side for the Clásico Paisa. El Verdolaga will defend the outright lead against DIM on Matchday 1...

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Apr 11 • 9:13 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Legendary basketball coach, broadcaster Dick Vitale reveals health status

The basketball world has come together to support one of its most legendary figures. Former NCAA and NBA coach and current broadcaster Dick Vitale has faced challenges larger than basketball. Recent reports revealed that Vitale has been dealing with numerous…

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Apr 11 • 8:05 PM EDT • Health • sports.yahoo.com
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Milwaukee Marathon proves healthy way to deal with college stress

Three college students ran the Milwaukee half marathon together, dressed up as the cutest of cows, as a way to run off stress.

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Apr 11 • 7:52 PM EDT • Health • sports.yahoo.com
Local youth science fair winners to compete in Canada-wide fair next month

Hundreds of Grade 5-12 students gathered at the Olympic Oval on Saturday for the final day of the Calgary Youth Science Fair, which named 17 finalists, who will compete in the national fair next month...

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Apr 11 • 6:53 PM EDT • Science • ca.news.yahoo.com
🚨 Tigres v Chivas line-ups confirmed

Tigres hosts Chivas this afternoon at El Volcán in one of the most attractive matches of the weekend. Guido Pizarro’s side will look to take all three points from the league leaders, which would he...

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Apr 11 • 6:35 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next

Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.

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Apr 11 • 6:30 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Cameron Young had a Saturday rally at the Masters

Cameron Young had an incredible rally on Saturday at the Masters

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Apr 11 • 6:16 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Young sibling duo starts small bread making business

Our team stopped by the Youngstown Flea this afternoon and found 12-year-old Gloria, and her 10-year-old brother Israel running their own stall.

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Apr 11 • 5:59 PM EDT • Business • yahoo.com
UCLA players embracing competitive spring practices

A sense of competition has pervaded the Bruins’ first handful of spring practices this year.

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Apr 11 • 5:25 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Role reversal: Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3

Almost the exact same scenario as last night played out, only in reverse

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Apr 11 • 5:17 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Forget Masters leaderboard, Scottie Scheffler still biggest threat to Rory

Scottie Scheffler, the world's No. 1 golfer, made a significant comeback in the Masters third round, challenging Rory McIlroy.

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Apr 11 • 5:12 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chisora suggests retirement U-turn for Wilder rematch

Derek Chisora said he would retire after last weekend's fight against Deontay Wilder but is now pushing for a rematch, saying he was "upset" with the scoring.

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Apr 11 • 4:45 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Phillies 22-year-old enters MLB's top prospects list

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander and fourth-ranked prospect, Gage Wood, has entered MLB's top 100 prospects list after Chicago Cubs Moises Ballesteros graduated.

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Apr 11 • 4:44 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Ways the Golden Knights Can Clinch a Playoff Berth Tonight

The Vegas Golden Knights enter Saturday with a long-awaited opportunity to clinch a playoff berth, capping a season defined several […]

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Apr 11 • 4:16 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Patriots host potential backup quarterback on pre-draft visit

Jalon Daniels projects as a late-round pick or rookie free agent in this year’s NFL Draft.

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Apr 11 • 4:10 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: RB Cash Jones, Georgia

Are the Browns considering this Bulldog as the newest member of the Dawg Pound?

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Apr 11 • 4:07 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Green Bay Packers 2025 run defense review: What went wrong

Part 1 of 2 reviewing the Packers 2025 defense.

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Apr 11 • 4:06 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
NFL Draft Scouting Report: Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech

Height is a true designated pass-rusher, which comes with positives and negatives.

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Apr 11 • 3:52 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
XChat to launch on iPhone and iPad

Can this X-affiliated chat app compete with WhatsApp and Signal?

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Apr 11 • 2:21 PM EDT • Technology • mashable.com
Colorado transfer G Isaiah Johnson commits to Texas

The Longhorns land one of the most coveted guards in the portal.

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Apr 11 • 2:14 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Markquese Bell arrested, Cowboys safety facing drug possession charges

Cowboys safety Markquese Bell was arrested on both felony and misdemeanor drug charges. Here's what to know about his arrest.

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Apr 11 • 1:32 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Golden Knights have chance to clinch playoff berth against Avalanche

It has taken longer than anticipated for the Vegas Golden Knights to reach this point, but better late than never.

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Apr 11 • 1:15 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Chicago Cubs Rumors: Insider Addresses Likelihood of Lucas Giolito Signing
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Apr 11 • 1:12 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch

Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”

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Apr 11 • 1:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Coaching search shows UNC Basketball still an elite job

The extraordinary events around the search Hubert Davis’ replacement reveal just how unique the UNC job is.

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Apr 11 • 1:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Watch: Crusaders thump Ports to move off bottom

Watch highlights as XX beat XX in the Irish Premiership.

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Apr 11 • 12:57 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Cowboys draft rumor shot down by star defender’s 30 visit

How would you feel about Jermod McCoy?

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Apr 11 • 12:30 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Gulfstream's Skyward event draws global business aviation leaders to Savannah

Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. recently hosted nearly 2,000 attendees from over 30 countries at Skyward, its newly reimagined customer event in Savannah. The three-day conference served as a pivotal gathering to discuss the evolving landscape of business aviation.

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Apr 11 • 12:24 PM EDT • Business • griceconnect.com
Steelers trade proposal sends Nick Herbig to NFC powerhouse

Could the Steelers send Herbig out of Pittsburgh?

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Apr 11 • 12:17 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Are the Bills better after offseason additions and departures?

The Bills made some big moves, including trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb. Is Buffalo’s roster improved?

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Apr 11 • 12:01 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chelsea Star Speaks On Exit From Manchester United

Garnacho, Chelsea Move Signals Reflection After Man United ExitThere is often a moment, quiet and uncomfortable, when a young footballer begins to understand that talent alone does not carry a career....

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Apr 11 • 11:50 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback

The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?

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Apr 11 • 11:46 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Ravens add Dr. Nic Gill for outside perspective on sports performance

The Baltimore Ravens hired Dr. Nic Gill as VP of Health & Performance, bringing an 'outside perspective' to the team.

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Apr 11 • 11:43 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
Allegri explains Milan changes with new 4-3-3 experiment

Max Allegri explains how his Milan team changes with a 4-3-3 formation against Udinese and why they must ‘give Rafael Leao the right service’ as a centre-forward.It kicks off at San Siro at 17.00 ...

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Apr 11 • 11:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
'It was difficult for both teams'

QPR boss Julien Stephan spoke to BBC Radio London after the goalless draw with Bristol City

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Apr 11 • 11:05 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Photo Of Cameron Brink, LeBron James Grabs Basketball World's Attention

WNBA star Cameron Brink was at Crypto.com Arena on Friday night to watch LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers square off against the Phoenix Suns. Unfortunately for the Lakers, this month hasn't been very kind to them. A few days ago, All-Star guard Luka Doncic suffered a grade 2 hamstring ...

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Apr 11 • 10:38 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Mets to call up Craig Kimbrel

Sure, why not?

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Apr 11 • 10:02 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
2026 NFL Draft Profile: Texas tight end Jack Endries

Texas tight end Jack Endries is a Day 3 prospect the Denver Broncos should consider in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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Apr 11 • 10:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Atlético Madrid ‘astounded’ by Barcelona’s refereeing complaints

The fallout from Barcelona’s defeat to Atletico Madrid continues to intensify, with the Madrid-based club now responding to the actions taken by Barcelona following the controversial encounter.After...

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Apr 11 • 10:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Three-star recruit Trenton Blaylock narrows list to final eight

Trenton Blaylock is the brother of Oklahoma running back Tory Blaylock.

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Apr 11 • 9:53 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani breaks Ichiro Suzuki all-time MLB record

Shohei just keeps making baseball history.

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Apr 11 • 9:43 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Barcelona vs Espanyol, La Liga: TV & Streaming, Live Thread

Join us for another Barcelona La Liga adventure!

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Apr 11 • 9:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
France Kicks Windows to the Curb, Pivots to Linux OS

David Amiel, France’s Minister of Public Action and Accounts, said his country must 'break free' and 'become less reliant on American tools.'

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Apr 11 • 9:28 AM EDT • Technology • pcmag.com
2026 a huge year for one veteran Cowboys player

2026 is a huge year for DeMarvion Overshown.

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Apr 11 • 9:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Mets news: Clay Holmes exited Friday’s game with hamstring injury

The injury bug bites again.

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Apr 11 • 8:10 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Former New York Jets QB Browning Nagle has passed away

Sad news for a former Jets quarterback.

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Apr 11 • 7:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Indiana Fever reportedly signing Monique Billings in WNBA free agency

The Indiana Fever are reportedly signing Monique Billings in WNBA free agency.

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Apr 11 • 7:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Science news this week: Artemis II splashes down, the world's fattest parrot bounces back, and the Shroud of Turin is contaminated

April 11, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend.

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Apr 11 • 7:00 AM EDT • Science • livescience.com
Game Preview: Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins, 4/11/2026

Who: Washington Capitals (40-30-9, 89 points, 6th place Metropolitan Division) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (41-22-16, 98 points, 2nd place Metropolitan Division) When: 3:00 p.m. ET How to Watch: National broadcast on ABC and TBS Pens’ Path Ahead: Today is the final home game of the regular season (but not the last home game of the season, now that […]

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Apr 11 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
New York Jets Flight Connections 04/11/26

Happy Saturday, Jets fans! Here are your links to kick off this weekend. Jack Bell – TE Kenyon Sadiq Could Be a ‘Really Interesting’ Pick for the Jets Antwan Staley – Jets still high on Mason Taylor, but Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq could be draft option Michael Nania – Should Jets seize chance to trade […]

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Apr 11 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
LeBron James hits NBA milestone as LA Lakers crush Suns

James became only the fourth NBA player to reach the milestone

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Apr 11 • 6:16 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Deep dive
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Qualcomm's Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme, Tested: Big 18-Core Energy for Laptops, Incoming!

Debuting in Asus’ exciting 16-inch Zenbook A16, Qualcomm's 2026 flagship processor looks like a benchmark bombshell ready to shake up the laptop CPU field. We have the receipts.

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Apr 11 • 6:15 AM EDT • Technology • pcmag.com
Today on Pinstripe Alley

Looking to turn the page after the first series loss of the season.

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Apr 11 • 6:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
'Now is the time' for North West 200 debut

North West 200 newcomer Franco Bourne believes the time is right for him to make his international road race debut at the event in May.

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Apr 11 • 5:57 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Detroit Lions set for top 30 visit with Toledo DB

The Detroit Lions will host Toledo defensive back Andre Fuller on a top 30 visit next week.

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Apr 11 • 5:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
This dreadful run that's weighing Mbappé down 🥶

The black cat?This Friday evening, Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Girona on matchday 31 of La Liga.If Barcelona win this Saturday, the Catalans would move nine points clear of Madrid a...

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Apr 11 • 5:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Celtic must sort scouting and recruitment shambles this summer

Scouting and recruitment should be the top of Celtic’s agenda when it comes to the much needed reshuffle of club affairs this summer…Michael Nicholson and Chris McKay at TannadiceDundee Utd v Celt...

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Apr 11 • 5:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Bengals News (4/11): Looking back 30 Years

One of the Bengals best draft picks in their team’s history occurred three decades ago.

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Apr 11 • 5:29 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Victory essential for Wales in Six Nations against Scotland today

Head coach Sean Lynn is under pressure to deliver a win in his second campaign in charge of Wales.

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Apr 11 • 5:26 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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NFL reporter: Titans should acquire Falcons TE Kyle Pitts

One longtime NFL reporter suggests that the Tennessee Titans should acquire Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts.

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Apr 11 • 5:06 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Health chatbots could pave the way for 'AI privilege' in court

Tech companies like OpenAI have many reasons to keep your discussions with health-focused AI locked up.

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Apr 11 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • mashable.com
Yankees news: Volpe slated to start upon return

Volpe expected to retake starting gig once healthy; flaws emerge as Yanks nosedive from hot start; Average salary in MLB rises; Mike Ford retires, takes role in Rays’ front office.

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Apr 11 • 5:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com