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GO Pass: July 2026
The July 2026 Pokémon GO Pass features Ho-Oh, Gimmighoul with a 10th Anniversary Coin, PokéCoins, XP, Stardust, milestone bonuses, and Deluxe rewards.
PA business owner slams Gov Shapiro over missing booth at Great American State Fair
Quarter Pine Tree Farm owner Beth Ann Bossio joins 'The Faulkner Focus' to discuss how Sen. Dave McCormick and Sen. John Fetterman bypassed Gov. Josh Shapiro to rescue the state's 250th Great American State Fair booth.
Gov. Little celebrates U.S. Supreme Court’s decision upholding protections for women’s sports
Boise, Idaho – Governor Brad Little commented today on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Little v. Hecox. The ruling upholds Idaho’s ban on men participating in women’s sports. “Idaho was the very first state to ban men from participating in women’s sports with the passage of the Fairness
Supreme Court Strikes Down Limits on Political Party Spending
At issue in the case was a post-Watergate law that Congress passed to limit the amount of money individuals can give to political parties.
Supreme Court scraps check on money in politics at request of Vance, GOP
The GOP asked the Supreme Court to scrap a Watergate-era rule preventing donors from bypassing limits on what they can give federal candidates.
US bill requiring paid games to be playable after they shut down has failed to pass a Senate vote
Stop Killing Games says it will try again with “the funding to do this properly”…
Klick Health Acquires Oxford PharmaGenesis, Bringing Together Unsurpassed Scientific-to-Commercial Capabilities for Life Sciences Clients
Focused on taking life sciences companies into the future, Klick Health today announced its acquisition of Oxford PharmaGenesis, the market-leading HealthSci...
Opinion | Protect the workers who protect our health
Massachusetts lawmakers should pass bipartisan workplace violence reforms before the legislative session ends.
Not many ‘Iron Men’ are left in Major League Baseball
Pete Alonso played his 500th consecutive game this week, although if he wanted that to seem impressive to local fans, he probably picked the wrong city to play in. Alonso, of course, joined the Baltimore Orioles this past offseason. Their franchise record for consecutive games is also the big league record of 2,632 by true […]
Senator Cassidy, a past RFK supporter, warns of secretary's impact on public health
The Louisiana Republican, who helped confirm Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as health secretary, voiced concerns about his leadership in a Sunday CBS News interview.
Trump unloads after Supreme Court upholds late mail-in ballots in Mississippi
Trump slams Supreme Court ruling allowing late mail-in ballots, demands Congress pass the SAVE Act requiring voter ID and proof of citizenship.
Manuel Neuer sets new Germany World Cup record
Manuel Neuer made his 23rd start for Germany at a World Cup, setting a new record for the national team after surpassing Lothar Matthäus and Miroslav Klose (both 22 starts).Julian Nagelsmann named Ba...
Republicans call for Senate to pass SAVE America Act after mail ballot ruling
The Supreme Court on Monday ruled ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted shortly afterward
Republicans call for Senate to pass SAVE America Act after mail ballot ruling
The Supreme Court on Monday ruled ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted shortly afterward
Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 Pre-Order Ad Reminds Everyone It's 'Not On Xbox Game Pass This Year'
The messaging mess is in full swing
Monroe County Health Department investigating cluster of cyclosporiasis cases
The Monroe County Health Department is investigating a cluster of cyclosporiasis cases that have popped up in the past week.
Mets Player Meter: Position Players, June 15-28
A quick review of how the Mets’ position players fared over the past couple weeks.
Trump voters say costs are crushing their wallets — but look past president for blame
Trump rally attendees say rising gas prices are linked to the Iran conflict, not Trump's policies, and express confidence costs will decline soon.
Alleged Modern Warfare 4 ad uses ‘not on Xbox Game Pass’ as a selling point
This year’s Call of Duty will be the first to skip Game Pass since 2023…
Congress wants to ban AI companies from selling your health data
The new proposal bans selling health and location data info — including data entered into your favorite AI chatbot.
How six venture capital giants are reshaping startup financing
The venture capital landscape is becoming increasingly concentrated, with six megafirms— Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Thrive Capital, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Founders Fund and General Catalyst—now raising more capital than all other U.S. venture firms combined over the past two years, Inc. reports. Their growth has been fueled by the enormous capital requirements of AI startups, […]
Supreme Court will weigh Trump-backed Republican push to revive Arizona voting laws
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court said Monday it will consider a Republican push to enforce strict Arizona voting laws passed in the swing state after the 2020 election. The high court has allowed some similar rules to take effect temporarily before, including Arizona's proof-of-citizenship requirement for state and local elections and a Virginia purge of voter rolls that the state said was aimed at keeping noncitizens from voting. READ MORE: Supreme Court rejects Trump's
Xbox reportedly stops signing third-party Game Pass deals
Studios are apparently no longer being offered Xbox Game Pass deals. But what does this actually mean?
Expanding pharmacists’ authority is about healthcare
Alaska’s passage of House Bill 195 marks a practical and overdue step toward improving access to healthcare, especially in a state where geography alone can turn a minor illness into
Jared Moskowitz opens 32-point lead in CD 25 Democratic Primary
A new Beacon Insights survey puts him past 50%, more than doubling Oliver Larkin.
How Sports Other Than Football Shaped Garrett Wilson’s Creativity
Growing Up, the WR Also Played Basketball and Did Gymnastics
The Dallas Teen All-Access Pass is back. Here's what it includes
The pass allows teens and up to three guests access to events and venues, from cultural centers to entertainment-oriented businesses.
Passback finds new life for old sports equipment, equipping youth to take the field
Magdalen Sparrow grew up on St. Louis’ soccer fields chasing after stray balls and picking up lost water bottles to put in overflowing lost and found bins. Then known by her maiden name, Magdalen Pike, she went on to play D1 soccer at Southeast Missouri State University, accumulating a closet full of sports gear in […]
Pioneering female sports editor honored with Hall of Fame induction
Sandy Smith is being inducted into the New Hampshire Legends Hockey Hall of Fame for her passion and coverage of sports.
Insider Sale: CEO of Business Group of $BABA Sells 13,579 Shares
Fan (FJ) Jiang, the CEO of Business Group of $BABA, sold 13,579 shares of the company on 06-25-2026 for an estimated $164,305. We received data on the trade from a recent SEC filing. This was a sale of approximately 2.4% of their shares of this class of stock. Following this trade, they now own 556,617 shares of this class of $BABA stock.$BABA Insider Trading Activity$BABA insiders have traded $BABA stock on the open market 7 times in the past 6
At 99, this Pasadena ballet teacher has no plans to stop dancing
Helga Monson de Kansky was once predicted to become ballet's next star. Instead, she chose a life with her family and a career as a dance instructor.
Apple accuses India of 'copy-pasting' rivals' claims in antitrust investigation
Apple has accused Indian antitrust investigators of "copy-pasting" its rivals' claims and failing to properly conduct its own investigation in concluding the U.S. tech giant breached competition laws, calling for the findings to be quashed, regulatory papers reviewed by Reuters showed.
DeAndre Hopkins still sounds like perfect Bengals signing
DeAndre Hopkins wants to play for a contender and has mentioned the Bengals in the past.
Xbox reportedly pausing new third-party Game Pass deals, developers say
Developers in line for Game Pass deals ‘got the rug pulled from under them’ it’s claimed…
Americans' pride in US history and democracy drops, and fewer are proud to be American, polls find
A new AP-NORC poll finds that Americans have grown less proud of the country’s history or the way its democracy works over the past several years
Danny White earns big bonus for Tennessee bowl, NCAA tournament toward $3.3M pay
Tennessee athletics director Danny White earned $577,500 in annual bonuses to push his total compensation past $3 million as one of the highest paid ADs in the country.
How Trey Hendrickson changes the math for Ravens defense
Trey Hendrickson gives the Ravens a proven edge closer, helping Baltimore create pressure without blitzing while easing the burden on young pass rushers.
Raveheart by Graeme Armstrong review – ravers rebel in a Scottish political satire
A veteran techno DJ embarks on a campaign of civil disobedience in this passionate and at times hilarious tale of underground resistance
America 250: L.A. Threads its Fabric
A decade ago, fashion newcomer Ari Jogiel turned a hat-making passion project into a one-stop-shop garment factory. At his namesake full-package company,
Los Angeles Venezuelans collect aid after deadly earthquake as business owner searches for missing parents
Full Arepas, on Seventh Street near Hill Street, is accepting donations through Tuesday for people affected by the deadly earthquakes that struck northern Venezuela last week. Owner Kelly Montano said her parents are missing near Caracas.
Congress passes rare bipartisan bill on housing, how manufactured housing could be crucial to affordability
St. Mary’s woman doesn’t let brain injury stop her from business passion
Flourishing in Faith opened in a camper in 2020.
Jesse Eisenberg opens up about turning down Aaron Sorkin's offer to return for 'Social Network' sequel
Jesse Eisenberg says passing on Aaron Sorkin's offer for him to return as Mark Zuckerberg in 'The Social Network' sequel felt like 'letting down America.'
It’s the End of an Era for Xbox Game Pass, According to a New Report
A new Xbox Game Pass report has warned it is about to be the end of an era for the Microsoft subscription service.
Anxiety drives child mental health referrals past one million
Demand is soaring beyond capacity, meaning children in England wait years for help with various conditions.
Yedsit Hazlewood, Jamie Ness Take Laurel Park Titles
While Jeiron was away, Yedsit played. After winning eight races over the past three Laurel Park cards and moving into a narrow lead in the jockey standings, red-hot Jeiron Barbosa was at Churchill Downs on Sunday to ride The Stork Club in the $225,000 Debutante Stakes. That opened the door for ...
Paso Robles unveils entertainment lineup for July 4th celebration at Barney Schwartz Park
The evening's entertainment will begin at 5:30 p.m. with a performance by Garden Party, a local group playing music from the 1960s and 1970s.
“Toy Story 5 ”soars past “Supergirl”'s bumpy $38 million takeoff at the box office
D.C. and Warner Bros. were hoping for a $50–55 million return on their $170 million investment into the standalone supheroine flick.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
The most recent move in the ongoing legal battle between the state and prediction market operators came after the state enacted new sports wagering taxes to support the $55.9 billion budget it passed this spring.
After budget impasse, business as usual for Virginia Democrats, analysts say
This has been a budget battle like none other, with big personalities, personal attacks and what looked like a high-stakes game of chicken with days to go before the Virginia state government couldn’t pay its bills.
Hornets reportedly trading Miles Bridges to Suns for Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, 1st-round pick
Charlotte continues its offseason overhaul after nearly making the NBA playoffs this past season.
Theater Quiz for June 2026: Pride, Politics and Prizes
How well were you paying attention to the theater over the past month? Answer these ten questions, and a whopper of a bonus question about Tony acceptance speeches, to find out.
Lyles to take charge of Ultimate Championship entertainment
Noah Lyles has been announced as an Ultimate Star for the World Athletics Ultimate Championship, taking place from September 11-13 in Budapest, Hungary.Lyles, the dominant US sprinter who has won consecutive 200m golds at the past four World Championships, is locked in to compete at the inaugural edition of the new global championship. Lyles has earned automatic qualification into both the 100m and 200m by virtue of his podium-topping performances in those disciplines at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and the World Athletics Championships Tokyo 25, respectively.
Retro Recap: All The Classic Gaming News From The Past Week (June 28th 2026)
Sonic pinball! Retroid Pocket Nova! Star Fox 64!
Linux 7.2 Surpasses More Than 43 Million Lines In The Kernel Tree
Today marks the last day of the Linux 7.2 merge window with Linux 7.2-rc1 due out later today
Opinion | Trump’s Science Cuts Betray America’s Past Since Lewis and Clark
America has funded scientific research since 1804 — and remembers that first project as a national glory. Cutting similar funding today is a betrayal.
Central Mass. by the Numbers, Sunday, June 28
A look at business news in Central Mass. over the past week.
Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed impresses in Air‑It‑Out exhibition
Marcel Reed delivered one of the top highlights at the Manning Passing Academy, dropping a perfect deep ball during the Air‑It‑Out exhibition.
3 million Americans have dropped Obamacare health coverage over past year, after Republicans let federal subsidies expire
KFF expects the total number of people in the government healthcare program to continue to decline throughout the year, potentially to a low of about 17.5 million from 19.2 million now.
Chicago faith leaders, businesses rally to collect supplies for Venezuela earthquake victims
In Chicago, pastors and businesses across the city are coordinating efforts to send aid after devastating earthquakes in Venezuela.
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) A Bargain Following Its Sharp Pullback?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the stock down about 9% over the past month and about 11% over the past 3 months, which has sharpened the focus on its current valuation. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. At a recent share price of $8.39, Tencent Music Entertainment Group has posted a year to date share price decline of about 53% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of about 55%. However, the 3...
Fidelio: Classical music meets politics
Vitali Alekseenok is passionate about classical music and politics. He is actively involved in Ukraine, advocates for a free Belarus, and conducts Beethoven's opera of freedom, 'Fidelio,' at the Deutsche Oper am Rhein.
UNC Health Talk: Why do I still get pimples?
Are you asking why you get acne well past puberty? Dermatologist Margaret Coates has the do's and dont's for treating adult acne.
5 million have dropped ACA insurance after Trump and the GOP let prices skyrocket
The number of people who signed up for a health plan and then didn't pay their premium fell much more sharply than it has in years past. Trump officials blame fraud. Health policy experts blame costs.
Venezuela Quakes Push Fragile Health System to the Brink
Earthquake victims are overwhelming healthcare centers in Venezuela’s coastal state of La Guaira and beyond, pushing an already fragile health system past its limits.
Best investments over the past 100 years? Almost all are tech companies
Most of the top performers are tech companies, headed by Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft.
Louisiana Art and Science Museum took guests back in time at its annual Dino Day
BATON ROUGE — The Louisiana Art and Science Museum gave guests an opportunity to experience a time long passed at its annual Dino Day on Saturday.
Arsenal hold talks with Strasbourg technical director Pascal de Maesschalck
Arsenal have held talks with the technical director of RC Strasbourg Alsace, Pascal de Maesschalck, according to a report from The Athletic.The Premier League champions are in the process of finding ...
World Cup: Reijnders and Ake involved in Netherlands victory
Tijjani Reijnders and Nathan Ake eased past Tunisia in a 3-1 victory to top Group F.The two City stars started brightly for their nation and it wouldn’t be long until the early pressure paid off.Fol...
Why didn’t Arsenal’s Saliba play against Norway?
France eased past Norway to top their World Cup group on Friday night, but William Saliba was unavailable for the game as he continues to manage his back injury.Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty ImagesFr...
Federal health officials recall chicken, other items in Washington
The Washington State Department of Health recalled chicken, pasta salad and raisins for potentially containing unlisted ingredients.
Ohio State Buckeyes projected to land elite offensive lineman
Ohio State sits on the cusp of another top-5 recruiting class, and the Buckeyes could be receiving even more good news this weekend. Four-star Jackson (Miss.) offensive lineman Caden Moss is set to commit Friday night, and the Buckeyes are surging late as the favorite to land him. Over the past 24 hours, Rivals national […]
Trump posts new passport rendering — featuring a memorable photo of himself
President Donald Trump unveiled a new rendering of a special commemorative US passport bearing his likeness Friday, debuting a limited-edition passport to mark America’s 250th anniversary this year.
A World Cup watch party reconnected me with someone from my past
Jill Tucker taught English in Cape Verde 35 years ago, and was surprised when one of her former students recognized her at a World Cup watch party.
I Went From Bedside Nurse to Business Owner By Turning a Hobby Into a Home Micro-Factory That Makes Over $100K a Year
Eric Street followed his crafting passion into business.
SGMC Health Honors White with BEE Award
SGMC Health recognized Jessica White, patient care technician on 4 South, as the June recipient of the Being Extraordinary Everyday (BEE) Award, which honors non-nursing staff who demonstrate exceptional compassion, collaboration, and dedication to patient care.
HYPE: Joe Horn to enter Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame
New Orleans Saints legend Joe Horn will be inducted into the Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame as part of the 2026 class! Horn caught 523 passes for 7,622 yards and 50 touchdowns in 102 games for the Saints from 2000-06.
Past participants are now the leaders of MIT’s dynaMIT Club
The MIT student club dynaMIT teaches STEM principles to local middle school students for free every summer. They use fun, innovative experiments to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers.
PlayStation encourages Blu-ray adoption by deleting purchased movies from customer accounts
PlayStation encourages Blu-ray adoption by deleting purchased movies from customer accounts
Should I Start A Business From Passion Or With The Intention To Sell?
Sara Blakely did not set out to build a billion-dollar company. She just wanted better underwear.
Alito’s testy reaction to Sotomayor underscores tensions at Supreme Court
When major rulings are announced, most Supreme Court justices practice a kind of studied impassivity. Then, there’s Samuel Alito.
Vance dismisses Watergate scandal, says ‘deep state’ went after Nixon
The vice president said he admired Nixon and drew parallels between the past president, who resigned amid pressure in 1974, and Trump today.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Mental health as both outcome and determinant in climate adaptation
Nature Climate Change - Mental health should not be viewed solely as a passive outcome of climate adaptation. Rather, it serves as a key determinant of cognitive capacity and shapes the...
FEMA official who claimed he teleported to Waffle House ousted from agency, sources say
A top FEMA official who had drawn scrutiny for bizarre past remarks — including claiming he teleported to a Waffle House — has been pushed out of the agency, four sources tell CNN.
Sephora CEO Guillaume Motte on Creating Demand and Scaling Desire
The beauty retailer’s chief executive spoke at day two of The Business of Beauty Global Forum about the strategies that have led to $5 billion in growth over the past three years.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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