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Analysis: Rogers still has more to prove
Morgan Rogers is attracting a lot of attention and the growing expectation is he will leave Aston Villa in the summer. Villa will likely need to sell a star player, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, and Rogers is their best asset - especially with Boubacar Kamara out injured. An impressive World Cup would also strengthen Villa's hand but the England forward needs to show more of a clinical nature throughout the pitch.
Polling stations close in pivotal Hungary election that could unseat long-time Prime Minister Orbán
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Early results in Hungary's election show opposition party leading and Prime Minister Orbán's trailing
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Will thrilling Scottish title race be decided on goal difference?
Rangers' 6-3 win over Falkirk extends the Ibrox side's advantage over leaders Heart of Midlothian and Celtic should the Scottish Premiership title be decided on goal difference.
Deion Sanders gives encouraging health update at Colorado spring game
Deion Sanders returned to the field for the Buffaloes' spring game after dealing with blood clots, and he provided a positive update on his health.
Virginia Mercury wins multiple Virginia Press Association awards
The Virginia Press Association recognized the outstanding work of dozens of news publications across the state on April 11 in Lynchburg, with The Virginia Mercury receiving first and second place awards across multiple categories for reporting and column writing in 2025. • Health and housing reporter Charlotte Rene Woods and editor-in-chief Samantha Willis earned the […]
Illinois Court Hears Final Lawsuit Challenging Marijuana Social Equity Business Licensing Lottery
“We just want a fair shot. We’re not asking for anything special, no special privileges, but what they promised from the very beginning.” By Hannah Meisel, Capitol News Illinois Nearly seven years after Illinois lawmakers approved recreational cannabis legalization, applicants who lost out on coveted business licenses are still battling the state in court, alleging […]
'Euphoria' Season 3 returns with new plot and dedications
After four years, 'Euphoria' Season 3 premieres this weekend, dedicated to Angus Cloud and others. What to know.
Where to watch Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Sunday, April 12
The Hornets can potentially improve their seeding with a win over the Knicks.
Bill calls for mental health assessments be made available for all Virginia 6-12th graders
A proposed law would ask that mental health assessments be made available for all sixth-12th grade public school students in Virginia.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off
The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)
Pastors Scott Bottoms, Victor Marx win spots in Colorado GOP’s gubernatorial primary at party assembly
Two pastors from Colorado Springs qualified Saturday for the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot at the Colorado GOP’s state assembly in Pueblo in a party meeting that dragged late into the night. State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who is known as one of the legislature’s most conservative members, won top line on the June ballot, while missionary […]
Deion Sanders Offers Health Update After Colorado's Spring Game
Following his NFL career, Colorado Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders has had a few complications with his health, which have included blood clots and bladder cancer
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Mid-Missouri event offers free health services, brake light repairs and meals
Tallgrass Collective hosted a free clinic offering health services, vehicle brake light repairs, food and clothes Saturday from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Hornets aim to bounce back in season finale vs. Knicks
After clinching the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks are expected to sit a number of key players in their regular-season finale against the visiting Charlotte Hornets on Sunday.
Postal Service, Under Pressure, Now Faces Trump’s Mail Ballot Order
President Trump’s executive order, which has been challenged as unconstitutional, would limit the Postal Service to sending only the ballots of voters deemed eligible.
Salah, Ngumoha ease Liverpool crisis with Fulham win
Liverpool's rising star and departing legend combined to ease the pressure on Arne Slot as goals from teenager Rio Ngumoha and Mohamed Salah beat Fulham 2-0, snapping the Reds' three-game losing streak on Saturday.Salah failed to get on the pitch at all during Liverpool's chastening 2-0 Champions League defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
This dreadful run that's weighing Mbappé down 🥶
The black cat?This Friday evening, Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Girona on matchday 31 of La Liga.If Barcelona win this Saturday, the Catalans would move nine points clear of Madrid a...
Lots of players rest and lots of playoff seeds are locked up on a 15-game Friday in the NBA
Plenty of players sat out as NBA teams played their second-to-last games of the season | 97.3 The Sky
Political analysts break down Trump's visit to Charlottesville
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (CBS19 NEWS) — President Donald Trump made a brief and tightly controlled visit to Charlottesville on Friday, attending a private fundraiser at Trump Winery as he works to
Santa Fe business owners, residents sound off south-side homeless shelter plans
The new shelter will be operated by Interfaith Community Shelter on a 1.1-acre plot of land near Santa Fe Place mall.
Research Days slam winner highlights role of cortisol in health
Nebraska psychology student Max Lottes won the 2026 Student Research Days Slam with a dynamic presentation reframing cortisol as a vital stress hormone, highlighting the annual event’s decade-long role in showcasing graduate and undergraduate research.
Pro-Palestinian activist refuses to condemn political violence after threat against her is foiled
After a Molotov cocktail plot against a pro-Palestinian activist was foiled, Nerdeen Kiswani refused to condemn political violence, blasting Zionist aggression.
Molotov cocktail thrown at Sam Altman's $27 million home
The San Francisco Police Department said a 20-year-old suspect is in custody and charges are pending. OpenAI praised the police's quick response.
Flourishing entrepreneur: How one student manages college life with business hustle
Balancing school and work is never easy, but one Brigham Young University student has taken their ambitions outside of the classroom and said her success smells an awful lot like flowers.
Five Innovative Startups Selected for Inaugural gBETA Charlotte Health
Five health care startups have been selected for the inaugural cohort of gBETA Charlotte Health, a new initiative powered by the City of Charlotte in partnership with gener8tor and Advocate Health.
Virginia Beach business addresses car meet concerns
After Virginia Beach Police put out a community notice, addressing complaints of car meetups at a parking lot in the city, one business says what they do isn’t the problem.
Picture this: A raffle offers a Picasso for 100 euros to fund Alzheimer’s research
A raffle in France offers the chance to win a Picasso portrait for a 100-euro ticket | 1010 WINS
Misericordia University Appoints New Dean to Lead College of Business
Misericordia University has appointed Todd A. Shawver, DBA, CMA as dean of its College of Business, effective July 1, 2026. A proven academic leader with a strong track record in enrollment growth, program innovation, and student success, Shawver brings extensive experience in advancing business education aligned with workforce needs and institutional mission.
Microsoft Starts Removing Copilot from Notepad, Snipping Tool, and More in Windows 11
Microsoft's Copilot AI has generated significant negative sentiment among Windows 11 users, to the extent that even Microsoft has recognized the need to scale back some of the Copilot functionality it has long promoted. According to Windows Latest, Microsoft has updated core Windows applications suc...
Microsoft starts removing unnecessary Copilot buttons in Windows 11
Microsoft has rolled out a Notepad update for Windows Insiders that removes the Copilot branding and icon from within the app, Windows Central has reported.
Maine group asks for changes in ballot language
The ballot question criticism is the latest twist in a controversial effort that began last fall when the group began gathering signatures to call for a public vote on the issue.
Group behind transgender school sports referendum opposes drafted ballot question wording
The group 'Protect Girls Sports in Maine' is taking issue with how ballot question is worded, arguing it is "not dutifully faithful to the proposed legislative text and has departed from the most critical language."
Steyer wants to end the ‘Trump tax loophole.’ Here's what that means
Tom Steyer’s promise to “reverse the Trump tax loophole” if elected California governor relies on a lot of wishful thinking, political columnist Joe Garofoli writes.
Coach seeks uplift in results for Essex Women
Former England spin bowler Stephen Parry hopes this season will be "a lot more positive" for Essex Women after taking over as head coach.
Microsoft starts removing Copilot buttons from Windows 11 apps
The underlying AI features are here to stay, though
How Airlines Turned First-Class Seats From Freebies to a Profit Engine
Airlines used to give away most of their nicest seats, but they have increasingly found ways to persuade people to pay a lot for them.
Crimson Desert Dev Confirms Boss Rematches, Hard Difficulty, Enemy Territory Recapture, and a Whole Lot More Is Coming Soon
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has outlined a number of significant changes coming to the game in the coming months, each addressing various community complaints that were highlighted recently. Here's everything you need to know.
OpenAI has quietly launched its ads manager as it races to build out its ads business
The AI platform launched the ads manager within its ChatGPT ads pilot advertisers last week, and also lowered the barrier to joining the test.
Slotkin talks to Ohio voters amid questions about her national ambitions
Elissa Slotkin's national tour of states Trump won in 2024 has included Iowa and Ohio this week, two states pivotal to capturing the White House.
Possible presidential candidate rallies Dems in Cincinnati with Pureval
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval discussed broadening the Democratic Party's appeal in the Midwest.
North Dakotans can learn about resources to grow healthy habits on April 18 at Gateway to Health event | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Individuals and families are invited to the fourth annual Gateway to Health community event, which includes activities for all ages on Saturday, April 18, 10 a.m.- 4 p.m. at North Dakota’s Gateway to Science in Bismarck. Participants will enjoy free access to the science center during their registered two-hour time slot, along with access to interactive booths and exhibits promoting health and wellbeing through hands-on activities, games and prizes.
In this era of political violence, candidate security costs are higher, new report says
Security spending for congressional and presidential campaigns has jumped fivefold over the past decade as an increasingly hostile political environment has led to escalating threats against public officials, ranging from doxing to assassination plots, according to a report released Thursday.
Pro Camera to open Richmond location after 40 years in business
The Charlottesville store will move to its new location in June.
New YouTube Report Shows How Online Animators Are Reshaping the Entertainment Industry
YouTube has released a new report on how independent animators creating straight-to-audiences content on YouTube are reshaping the industry.
Crime Stoppers: Extension cords stolen from lot of Moline business
The person was wearing a baseball cap, black hoodie, green pants and boots. Police said the person also had a large black backpack.
Mariano urges business leaders to make a deal on income tax cut
House Speaker Ron Mariano appealed to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce on Thursday for help in preventing the tax-cut question from reaching the ballot.
Castlevania headlines a big list of exciting indie game reveals
There was a lot of indie game news.
One to-do item for every non-playoff team, from sorting out Giannis' future to reconfiguring the front office
The draft lottery results will dictate much of the offseason, so let's work around it
Supporters object to trans sports referendum ballot language
The Secretary of State released draft language this week of how the initiative, which seeks to limit participation in school sports and use of spaces like bathrooms to sex assigned at birth, would appear on the November ballot.
Elissa Slotkin is testing whether winning in Trump country is a winning message for Democrats
Sen. Elissa Slotkin knows how to win in Trump country. She’s trying to show her fellow Democrats the way.
Forage 2026 | A balancing act: The science of silage
The discussion about what to feed beef cattle throughout the year is among the most important conversations for the operation. For many, silage is a consideration. Galen Erickson, Ph.D., Nebraska Cattle Industry Professor of Animal Science and Beef Feedlot Extension Specialist, University of Nebraska-Lincoln,...
No Charges for Wisconsin Mayor Who Removed Ballot Drop Box in 2024
A special prosecutor said a review of the incident found there was not sufficient evidence to charge Doug Diny, the mayor of Wausau.
RFK Jr. moved his ex-wife’s remains from Kennedy family plot to the edge of the cemetery
A new biography on RFK Jr. has resurfaced claims he moved his ex-wife's remains from the Kennedy family plot to the edge of the cemetery without her family's knowledge.
Who Is Funding the 2026 Midterm Elections? A Lot of the Money Is Untraceable.
A lot of the money flowing into the political system is ultimately untraceable.
California Supreme Court orders GOP sheriff to pause election probe and preserve seized ballots
The dispute started earlier this year when Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seized 1,000 boxes of election materials to investigate a complaint from a local citizens group about the ballot count from a November 2025 special election on redistricting.
Lots of Social Science Won’t Replicate. Does That Mean It’s Bunk?
Scholars are debating the results of an effort to assess hundreds of papers’ credibility. Where some see failure and cause for urgent reform, others see reason for hope.
UNITE HERE shakes up NC politics: A conversation with Maria Hernandez
This spring, UNITE HERE Local 23 played a key role in unseating conservative Democrats and replacing them with progressive candidates in North Carolina's primary elections. An active member of Local 23 in Charlotte spoke with Facing South about how they mobilized voters amid a climate of fear.
State election dispute on political speech comes to Supreme Court on interim docket
Lawyers for Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, as well as county election officials, urged the Supreme Court on Wednesday to let them go ahead with a ballot that does […]
Wausau Mayor Doug Diny won’t face charges over ballot drop box removal case
The review determined that the box didn’t meet the state’s definition of “ballot box” in part because it was sealed and didn’t have any ballots in it.
Microsoft Mocked for Terms of Service That Admit Copilot Is for “Entertainment Purposes Only”
Microsoft admitting in its own Copilot terms of service that the tool should only be used for "entertainment purposes only."
Overwatch’s Next Hero Isn’t Who Fans Thought She Was
The game’s 51st hero looked a lot like a character from the novels
MAGA’s favorite strongman might be on the brink of defeat
We’re about to find out whether an authoritarian can lose at the ballot box.
Want to win big in sports? Follow Normal West grad Glenn Kinley, TV’s good-luck charm
A 2017 Normal West High School graduate, Kinley has been around a lot of winning in his young career as a television sports director. While at KSNT in Topeka, Kansas, he covered a Kansas men’s basketball national championship and two Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl wins. Now this: Illinois’ run to the men’s basketball Final Four as sports director at WCIA in Champaign.
More business openings than closings in Oregon in last decade, despite economic stigma
In 2023, following the end of the COVID pandemic, Oregon experienced more new business registrations than any other state in the nation.
See photo as Sarah Trone Garriott, Sen. Slotkin talk health care
See photos as Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-MI, joins State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott to talk to Iowans about health care on April 7, 2026, in Des Moines.
Update, safeguard Colorado’s mail ballot with voter ID
By Chuck Broerman and Suzanne Taheri Coloradans often refer to our state as a leader for accessible and secure elections. We have led on all-mail ballots, automatic voter registration, and same-day registration, turning Colorado into a model for modern elections while also increasing turnout and lowering costs. But leadership also means staying ahead of the […]
Niners' Potential Trade Package Revealed to Get Star Defensive Player
Clutching their first-round pick, the Niners plot a blockbuster deal to land an elite pass rusher, aiming for Super Bowl contention.
Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan joins Sarah Trone Garriott for health care town hall
The Michigan Democrat said she joined Iowa Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott in Des Moines because she wanted to support Midwest Democrats.
Sen. Elissa Slotkin sits down with Trump voters in Iowa while campaigning for Democrats
Michigan U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin is in Iowa to support Democratic congressional candidates and gather insights on how Democrats could win over President Donald Trump’s supporters
Club Corner: Business Professionals of America
The Business Professionals of America on NW Campus is more than just a club. Students also have the opportunity to explore possible future careers through competitive events. The BPA doesn’t hold regular weekly meetings. Instead, students typically meet individually with their faculty mentors as they prepare for regional, state and national competitions. “It is a lot of work,” said BPA adviser Jaye Simpson, an associate professor of accounting and department chair. “They’re working a couple hours every week, usually meeting with their mentor....
National Media Demand Grows for SBU Professor Timothy Glotch
Since being selected by NASA for the Artemis moon research team, Professor Timothy Glotch has quickly emerged as a sought-after expert in lunar science.
Nothing’s noise-canceling CMF Buds 2A are down to $19.99 for the rest of today
The earbuds check a lot of boxes for the price.
Community event to celebrate history through the lens of sports
This Saturday, the historic Carver Recreation Center in Charlottesville will host the Black History Pathway event.
‘A blatant political ploy’: California sheriff’s seizure of referendum ballots sets off alarm bells
Chad Bianco of Riverside county obtained warrants to seize ballots cast for state’s successful redistricting referendum
New PS5 Dashboard Update Leaks And Damn, Sony, That Looks Good
The PlayStation 5 home menu is about to get a lot easier to navigate, according to a beta tester
‘Les Misérables’ and more Seattle theater highlights in April, May 2026
There's lots to see on Seattle stages in April and May, from "Les Misérables" to three new adaptations of Chekhov comedies and more.
Vision Pro is about to get Steam Link app for gaming, download beta here
Apple Vision Pro will soon offer access to a lot more games than ever before, as visionOS is gaining a native Steam Link app.
Public comment open on wording of Maine transgender sports referendum question
The question will appear on the November ballot unless the bill is enacted by the Legislature as written.
Microsoft says Copilot AI is intended for 'entertainment purposes'
Microsoft's terms of service call Copilot entertainment-only, but the company has been pushing it as much more than that.
Gov. DeSantis signs measure shifting Naples Airport Authority control to voters
All 5 seats will appear on the ballot beginning with the 2026 General Election.
This GOP candidate seized a half-million ballots and says he may do it again
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running for California governor as a Republican, tried to review ballots despite election officials reaffirming the results.
‘Marathon’ Is Now Plagued With A Cheater Infestation
Marathon has many challenges, but its latest is dealing with a lot of cheaters infesting its higher-end matches.
Detroit-born media mogul to take over Stephen Colbert's time slot
Byron Allen spent his early childhood in the Motor City before moving with his mother to Los Angeles, where he started his comedy career at age 14.
Microsoft plans tweaks to Copilot terms claiming chatbot is for ‘entertainment purposes only’
Sharp-eyed users spotted Microsoft describing its Copilot AI as "for entertainment purposes only"
Is David Jolly riding an off-shore blue wave? His Q1 fundraising suggests momentum is building
Jolly still trails Republican Byron Donalds — by a lot — but he has upped his game since 2 surprise Special Election victories.
Voters may see unfamiliar names on their primary ballots. Here's why
As early voting starts, some voters may find themselves in a new congressional district.
Medicare delays prior authorization pilot program for key interventional radiology service
CMS officially announced the move on April 6, with it applying to the Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction (WISeR) Model.
Ballots cast Tuesday, counted later: Surfside mayoral runoff results pushed to April 28, Judge rules
A Judge’s ruling creates a three-week window for additional mail-in ballots, allowing voters to request and submit them well beyond Election Day.
Emily Gregory to be sworn in for HD 87 seat Tuesday at Palm Beach Gardens City Hall
It caps a first-time-this-century victory in a traditionally Republican district that will be back on the ballot in November.
CBS announces replacement for Colbert’s late-night time slot
The network said Monday that beginning May 22, the day after the finale of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” the hour will be filled by “Comics Unleashed with Byron Allen.”