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19 happy hours in Madison for sports, friends and first dates
From swanky downtown bars to tacos and tequila shots, find a variety of places to drink (and eat) more cheaply around Madison.
Pakistan Unveils Rs 18.8 Trillion Budget 2026-27: Tax Relief for Salaried Class, Landmark Exemption for Women's Health Amid Regional Crisis
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presents federal budget for fiscal year 2026-27 during a National Assembly sessionISLAMABAD, July 22, 2026 (...
New Science Fiction About Truth and Lies in an Age of War
Three recent novels explore the use of deception by both invaders and the invaded.
Smart Tips to Maximize Your NASCAR Weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, fans get more than just racing — they get great value. New England's only NASCAR Cup Series weekend features affordable tickets, free parking, flexible camping options and inclusive entertainment like live music and fan experiences.
Prominent Analyst Believes Jaguars’ Tuten Can Become a Star
As Jacksonville moves on from Travis Etienne, explosive second-year back Bhayshul Tuten faces immense pressure to silence skeptics and transform a young backfield into an elite unit.
Only 13% of patients diagnosed with lung cancer met low-dose CT screening criteria
Addressing these gaps will require more inclusive risk prediction models and system-level interventions such as EMR optimization and provider education to improve uptake.
Immigration Enforcement Surge Triggered Immediate and Lasting Economic Disruption Across Los Angeles County’s Latino Business Corridors
Analysis shows 46,000 fewer business visits and an estimated $3.16 million in accumulated losses near nine enforcement sites within two weeks. Latino entrepreneurs reported continuing financial…
Does the science of peptides live up to the hype?
Synthetic peptides are getting some serious hype, from fitness influencers on your FYP to people seeking new options for chronic conditions. And while the human body already makes peptides, like insulin and the hormone oxytocin, most of the viral synthetic peptides are not approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Scientists say that raises some big concerns about safety and efficacy. So ahead of this week’s FDA meeting to discuss seven commonly used peptides, we get into the science with health reporter Sarah Boden.Interested in more science behind health trends? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. It includes perks like bonus episodes, early access, archive access, curated playlists and sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.
Looking at Portland's business climate with Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle
As Columbia Sportswear celebrates a major win in the world of advertising, the company's CEO says Portland's economic challenges might be too much to bear.
Poland, Hungary's foreign worker curbs create headache for business
Facing a choice between upsetting businesses and a public opinion backlash, the Polish and Hungarian ruling centrists are opting for curbs on foreign labour — something economists warn may hurt the two countries' growth prospects.
Poland, Hungary's Foreign Worker Curbs Create Headache for Business
By Gergely Szakacs, Canan Sevgili and Alan Charlish KISVARDA, Hungary/GDANSK, Poland, July 22 (Reuters) - Facing a choice between upsetting businesses and a public opinion backlash, the Polish and Hungarian ruling centrists are opting for curbs on foreign labour — something economists warn may ...
Staying in a job for the health insurance? About 1 in 4 Americans do, a survey says
About 24% of U.S. employees stay in unwanted jobs just for health insurance, a report out Wednesday finds. Up significantly since 2021, the uptick in "job lock" is a concerning sign for the U.S. economy.
Mayfield: Bucs' Victory Over Jets Last Season Was 'Personal'
Behind-the-scenes footage reveals Baker Mayfield’s fueled vendetta against former coach Steve Wilks, turning a gritty Week 3 showdown into a high-stakes mission for redemption and a 3-0 start.
Garmin's New Whoop Challenger Is Also a Shot at Tech's Favorite Business Model
The Circa Smartband is a deliberate counter to the subscription-gated model that defines Whoop and Fitbit's latest tracker.
Seattle Seahawks Work Out Former Packers, Ole Miss Receiver
The Seattle Seahawks are exploring another option for an already crowded wide receiver competition.Seattle hosted Malik Heath and three defensive backs for tryouts, according to the NFL transaction wire.Heath, 26, brings more regular-season experience than most players searching for an opportunity this close to training camp.The 6-foot-2, 213-pound receiver spent his first three NFL seasons […] The post Seattle Seahawks Work Out Former Packers, Ole Miss Receiver appeared first on HEAVY.
Garmin's Screenless Cirqa Health Tracker Will Be Available This Week
Unlike similar screen-free wearables, no subscription is required.
Coffee And Heart Health: Reassurance, Not A Prescription To Drink More
A new American Heart Association statement redefines coffee's impact on heart health, moving from historical caution to reassurance.
Your Startup Might Be a Parasite. Here Are the 4 Warning Signs
Humans generally abhor parasites, but we make exceptions for businesses.
‘Business as usual is a business of death’: UN adopts road safety pledge over US objection
The UN General Assembly closed its first ever High-level Meeting on road safety on Tuesday by adopting a sweeping new declaration aimed at halving road deaths by 2030 – over the sole objection of the United States.
Same old Cowboys offseason with one giant exception
What do you think is the biggest individual difference about this Cowboys offseason?
Apple raises prices on some streaming services as licensing costs climb
Apple Music individual plans rise to $11.99 and family plans jump to $19.99 as the company cites rising licensing costs for the subscription hikes.
Roundup: LNG exports / Prairieville market / GLP-1 rivalry
Predicted to double: U.S. LNG exports are expected to nearly double by 2031, becoming the country’s second-largest net export industry and contributing an estimated $1.4 trillion to the economy. The growth is driven by abundant shale gas supplies, major Gulf Coast investments and rising global demand, with LNG exports projected to support hundreds of thousands […]
There’s a right way to regulate drugs. Kratom is no exception.
Kratom, social media use in teens, New York's data center moratorium and more, in readers' eyes.
Carolina Hurricanes To Launch Own Sports Network For Game Broadcasts
The NHL franchise is taking control of its local broadcasts, ditching traditional regional networks to deliver innovative programming and flexible viewing options directly to Canes fans.
UNC Center for Environmental Health and Susceptibility receives $7.7M from NIEHS - UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health
July 21, 2026 The Center for Environmental Health and Susceptibility (CEHS) has received a 5-year, $7.7M award from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. This grant supports research and community engagement to improve environmental health and well-being for people in North Carolina and across the nation.
Shopping Options Expand on Fourth Avenue
A grand opening for Pacific Corner Market heralds more shopping options on Fourth Avenue, with an expanded Midnight Market next door.
Walker Scobell and ‘Percy Jackson’ EP warn season 3 is ‘darkest’ yet: ‘People are dying’ (exclusive)
‘Percy Jackson and the Olympians’ star Walker Scobell and executive producer Craig Silverstein talk about adapting ‘The Titan’s Curse’ for season 3 — and why it’s their ‘darkest’ one yet.
Sports and politics: No longer strange bedfellows
Sports has always billed itself as above petty indifferences, something that brings people together on the sanctity of the playing field. FIFA, the guardian of the soccer World Cup pledges to ensure accessibility to everyone, promising that each athlete will receive a reception that is “safe, welc...
Apple Reportedly Planning to Wind Down 'iPhone Upgrade Program'
After launching a new "Apple Upgrade" program next week, Apple plans to stop accepting new iPhone Upgrade Program sign-ups, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. It remains to be seen if existing iPhone Upgrade Program members will be able to remain enrolled in the program beyond their current terms, or if they will be migrated to the Apple Upgrade program at some point.
Regular Coffee Consumption Linked to Health Benefits, AHA Says
A new report from the American Heart Association says that it's safe for most adults to drink up to five cups of coffee per day. New research also suggests regular coffee consumption may be linked to lower risk of stroke, diabetes, and heart failure for some individuals. Health benefits apply to paper filtered or instant coffee.
The AI Backlash Companies Can’t Ignore | AI & Business for July 21
Plus, China’s latest AI advances, always-on transcription and the perils of big AI contracts.
DiMe launches initiative to build operational AI governance tools
With the support and expertise of Qualified Health, FDA and 30 healthcare organizations and tech companies, the Digital Medicine Society says it will release tools that enable broader adoption of artificial intelligence as they are created.
Garmin just launched its very own Whoop competitor, the Cirqa Smart Band
But unlike the Whoop, it's subscription-free.
Garmin challenges Whoop with subscription-free Cirqa Smart Band
The Cirqa's screen-less design may not command attention, but the data should
Garmin’s new screen-free fitness tracker doesn’t require a subscription
Garmin’s new Whoop competitor is the screen-free Cirqa smart band.
iOS 26.6 Prepares Your iPhone for iOS 27
iOS 27 includes a rebuilt search architecture for Siri AI. As a result, iPhones running the iOS 27 beta go through a re-indexing process that can take many days to be completed, but iOS 26.6 should help to speed things up for users who skip the beta. iOS 26.6 "optimizes the Spotlight index to prepare for iOS 27," according to Apple's release notes for the update, which will likely be released next week.
Quest for research answers takes undergraduate student to Japan
Kaylin Lamaute has been spending the summer finding answers to her fascinations in materials science and engineering through the Adopting Sustainable Partnerships for Innovative Research Ecosystem (ASPIRE) program, an international initiative primarily driven by the Japan Science and Technology Agency.
Notre Dame has tons of familiarity with Wisconsin, just not Lambeau
The Badgers will open their football season Sept. 6 at Lambeau Field as a 20.5-point underdog against the Irish.
Lexington-Fayette County Health Department to Spray for Mosquitoes Early Thursday Morning, July 23, in ZIP code 40505
Lexington-Fayette County Health Department to Spray for Mosquitoes Early Thursday Morning, July 23, in ZIP code 40505Lexington, KY – July 21, 2026 The Lexington-Fayette County Health Department (LFCHD) will spray for mosquitoes early Thursday morning, July 23. A mosquito trap deployed by LFCHD at Johnsdale Drive recently caught a large number of mosquitoes, prompting the
FDA’s Review Of Peptides Signals A Growing Public Health Challenge— Separating Science From Hype
A FDA advisory committee will review evidence surrounding peptides. Experts are concerned there is a paucity of evidence to back their approval for legal compounding.
Survey of business and tech leaders reveals persistent gap between corporate AI adoption and workforce readiness
/PRNewswire/ -- A large majority of workers use artificial intelligence (AI) tools regularly, but few consider themselves highly familiar with the technology,...
Egypt: Release dozens detained over Gen Z online group calling for political change
The Egyptian authorities must release dozens of people detained for their association with a Gen Z online group calling for political change and publishing content critical of the government, Amnesty International said today. Since late May, officers from the National Security Agency (NSA) arrested at least 50 people, including nine women, for being part of the “Gen Z002” group on the social media platform, Discord, which called in October 2025 for toppling President Abdel […]
What China's internet is saying about Moonshot's hot new Kimi model
Just days after launching Kimi K3, Moonshot AI temporarily suspended new subscriptions, saying demand had overwhelmed its computing capacity.
OpenAI projects ChatGPT ad growth amid market doubts
OpenAI, led by CEO Sam Altman, is working to grow its ChatGPT ad business amid skepticism about its ambitious revenue projections.
Duran: Political Corruption, Personal Gain, Negligence, and Public Deception
It’s evident that the supervisors don’t want to recognize and/or prioritize saving lives of the infants, children, disabled, veterans, seniors, and critically ill who are trying to survive living on the streets in Orange County…
Pet medications now available at CVS Pharmacy®
Pet owners can now fill eligible pet prescriptions at CVS Pharmacy locations nationwide, with convenient options including refills, prescription management and delivery.
Former Left 4 Dead Writer Pans PlayStation Backlash Over Physical Media
Unsurprisingly, there has been more than a little backlash following Sony's recent decision to end the production of physical games media in 2028. Much of that backlash has been met with questions from skeptics about the real-world success of physical media compared to digital, and even game...
Trump enters an uncertain moment in Iran war that threatens to become a quagmire
Angered by the deaths of three U.S. service members but facing the war’s unpopularity at home, Trump has limited options before him.
NC political corruption probe: Warrant says group spent big on strip clubs, golf
The new warrant highlights nearly $80,000 in spending from 2022 to 2024 on strip clubs, sports and a beach rental.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Democrat set to replace Platner in Maine led state Senate with a temper
Troy Jackson, the presumptive Democratic nominee to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), yelled and cursed at fellow state lawmakers, interviews reveal.
Businesses worry about perception of Tucson mass shooting
The yellow police tape cordoning off East Congress Street Sunday didn’t come down until the better part of the day had passed.
For Madisonians about to rock, AC/DC salutes you
AC/DC rocked Camp Randall 25 years after the band's last Madison visit, with hits like "Thunderstruck" and "Highway to Hell."
Asset Management Business Model Transformation
Asset management business model transformation is key for growth. Adapting beyond investment strategy is crucial as competition shifts. Explore evolving business models.
Augusta Health Among First in Virginia to Offer Volt™ Pulsed Field Ablation Technology
FISHERSVILLE, VIRGINIA — Glenn Brammer, MD, a cardiac electrophysiologist and cardiologist at Augusta Health, is now offering the Abbott Volt™ Pulsed Field Ablation System, an advanced treatment option for patients with atrial fibrillation (AFib). “Atrial fibrillation and cardiac arrhythmias negatively impact the lives of millions in the United States and around the world. Beyond the […]
AMC Entertainment (AMC) Rockets 25.8% on Record Revenue in 106-Year History
AMC Entertainment saw its share price climb by as much as 25.77 percent during intra-day trading on Monday at $2.44 apiece, after the theater giant posted its highest quarterly revenue in its 106-year history, prompting investors to look past a wider net loss and focus on signs that recovery is gaining momentum. In an updated […]
Broadcom’s AI Mix Shift: How AVGO’s Booming AI Chip Business Changes the Investment Thesis
The AI sell-off extended on Friday and affected stock markets around the world. Oil prices remained volatile amid the U.S.-Iran tensions. Chip stocks, in particular, took the largest hit after a poor week. There is skepticism that AI chip prices are too high and that demand for computer memory and processors would be unsustainable if […]
Introducing: Breitling Top Time B01 Chronograph 41 Tribute To Aston Martin DB5
Breitling leans into the shapely Top Time chronograph's cushion case in a tribute to the mighty Aston Martin DB5 (and a nod to its Bond-film links, too).
VIDEO: NFIB’s Holly Wade Joins Bloomberg to Discuss Rise in Small Business Optimism
NFIB Research Center Executive Director Holly Wade joined Bloomberg: The Close last week to analyze June’s Small Business Optimism Index.
From The Sports Desk: Spain are world champions
Spain (eventually) overpowered a belligerent Argentina, which seemed more comfortable disrupting the game than winning it.
Is Thailand’s PM More Concerned About Sound Cannabis Policy or Political Optics?
Amid a rise in smuggling, Anutin Charnvirakul has recently come out against the policy he once championed: the decriminalization of marijuana.
Starting a Business Has Become a Lot Easier — Here's Why 5.7 Million Americans Took the Leap Last Year
There has been a massive uptick in people launching businesses, with AI supercharging their ability to do things faster and more cheaply.
Need surgery or prescriptions? How to deal with prior authorization challenges
Prior authorization: Why insurers require approval for some drugs, tests and procedures.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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