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14 years after being announced, Star Citizen hits $1 billion in funding.
Announced over a decade ago in 2012, and still floundering in Early Access with no release date in sight, Star Citizen keeps raising money, somehow. According to the funding page, it has now officially crossed the $1 billion mark. [Media: https://www.threads.com/@wario64/post/DYuqFGtGiQc?xmt=AQG0ina5TU2eMHAqf8D67F8GEa7iRI6CPEhaxYPeNO9jVedIr6EJBwqCtZm5OMl8tnQeYqyg]
Star Citizen Hits $1 Billion in Funding, Squadron 42 Release Update
As "Star Citizen" his $1 billion in lifetime funding, Cloud Imperium execs reveal update on "Squadron 42" release date.
Sutter Health to build tallest tower in Emeryville with updated hospital plan
Sutter Health is putting more muscle behind its planned Emeryville hospital campus, unveiling a bigger and taller vision for the $1 billion project that could permanently alter both the city’s skyline and Sutter Health’s role in the East Bay health care economy. The Sacramento-based health system released updated plans for its Emeryville Medical Center, outlining a 17-story, 780,000-square-foot hospital at Horton and 53rd Streets in Emeryville, the San Francisco Business Times reported. The project would include 325 beds at full buildout, up from the 200 initially proposed, and would become Emeryville’s tallest building if completed as designed, surpassing the 310-foot […]
WATCH: Trump says White House 'won't be a very secure place' without $1 billion security proposal
Kontoor Brands reaches agreement to sell Lee business in up to $1 billion deal
Kontoor Brands announced it has reached a definitive agreement to sell its Lee business.
Republicans expected to abandon $1B security proposal for White House and Trump's ballroom
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republican leaders on Thursday are expected to abandon a proposal for $1 billion in security money for the White House complex and President Donald Trump’s ballroom amid backlash from members of their own party. Pressured by the White House, Republicans tried to add the money to a roughly $70 billion bill to restore funding to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Border Patrol. But the security proposal met with opposition
Senate parliamentarian deals blow to $1B security proposal for White House
A proposal to fund $1 billion in security additions for the White House campus and the president’s new ballroom fails to meet procedural rules.
Senate parliamentarian deals blow to $1 billion security proposal for White House
A proposal to fund $1 billion in security additions for the White House campus and the president’s new ballroom fails to meet procedural rules.
Senate parliamentarian deals blow to $1 billion security proposal for White House
A proposal to fund $1 billion in security additions for the White House campus and the president’s new ballroom fails to meet procedural rules, according to the Senate parliamentarian.
BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Is Up 10.3% After Raising 2026 Revenue Guidance And Q1 Beat – Has The Bull Case Changed?
In early May 2026, BrightSpring Health Services reported first-quarter results showing revenue of US$3.61 billion and net income of US$148.77 million, and also raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance to expected revenues of US$14.73 billion to US$15.23 billion. The combination of outperformance in specialty pharmacy and infusion services, efficiency gains from automation, and successful home health integrations is reshaping how investors view BrightSpring’s earnings power and growth...
Trump officials hit California with ‘largest ever’ freeze on Medicaid funds
The Trump administration suspended $1.1 billion in California Medicaid funds over fraud claims, threatening home care for 900,000 seniors and people with disabilities.
Republican senators say they need more detail on $1B White House security request
Republican senators left a meeting with the director of the U.S. Secret Service on Tuesday saying they need more details on a $1 billion security plan for the White House, including a proposed $220 million to secure President Donald Trump’s new East Wing ballroom.
What's in the billion dollar paragraph behind the White House ballroom debate
The $1 billion request is tied directly to the transformation of the East Wing into a massive ballroom, though limited to “security”-related needs. Here's what we know.
AI Life Science Firm Metis TechBio Set for HK Debut After IPO
Metis TechBio Co, a biotechnology company using artificial intelligence to deliver and formulate drugs, is set to begin trading in Hong Kong after raising HK$2.1 billion ($270 million) in an initial public offering.
Secret Service Makes Case for Security Funding Amid G.O.P. Unease on Ballroom
The presidential protection agency detailed how it would use a proposed $1 billion as Republicans asked for more detail and Democrats went on the attack.
Norman breaks ground on Rock Creek Entertainment District, OU arena
After years of delays and political fights, OU and Norman officials broke ground on the $1.1 billion Rock Creek Entertainment District on Tuesday, May 12.
PayPal to give up $30M after DOJ accusations of bias in favor of minority-owned businesses
PayPal is expected to launch a new initiative waiving processing fees on $1 billion’s worth of transactions at the value of $30 million after signing a Tuesday settlement with the Justice Dep…
Controversial entertainment district breaks ground in Norman
The groundbreaking of a controversial entertainment district took place in Norman on Tuesday.The Rock Creek Entertainment District is a $1.1 billion, 269-acre m
Norman leaders break ground on $1.1 billion entertainment district that'll house new OU arena
Ground has officially been broken on a $1.1 billion entertainment district that will house the new University of Oklahoma arena.
Norman developers break ground on site of future Rock Creek Entertainment District
Norman leaders say the $1 billion mixed-use development near OU could bring jobs, tourism and new entertainment opportunities to the city.
Senate Republicans weigh whether to swallow Trump’s $1B push for ballroom security
Key Senate Republicans are signaling a willingness to support up to $1 billion in security upgrades for President Donald Trump’s ballroom renovation project, despite Democratic attacks, as the White House ramps up its lobbying push.
Democrats try to corner Republicans on $1 billion proposal for Trump’s ballroom: From the Politics Desk
Plus, MAGA world fights over the “hottest ticket in town.”
Democrats vow to fight Senate Republicans' $1 billion security proposal for White House ballroom
While most GOP lawmakers have remained quiet on the proposal as they spent their recess out of Washington, some have publicly questioned whether they would support it.
Chicago Teachers Union wants $8.5 million dues hike to fund politics
“Has your brand become toxic?” This was a pointed question from WGN Political Editor Tahman Bradley, posed to Chicago Teachers Union President Stacy Davis Gates in a recent interview. Her immediate response: “I don’t understand the question.” When pressed, Gates added, “The Chicago Teachers Union is not a political party, it is a labor union.” But internal union documents show CTU leadership is trying to skim $8.5 million more from teacher paychecks explicitly for politics, while trying to silence union members critical of Gates’ leadership. Under the proposed dues hike, Chicago teachers would see up to $800 more per year flow from their paychecks to union coffers. The union already takes in more than $40 million a year, mostly from dues. And it spends less than 18 cents of every dollar on teacher representation. The No. 1 reason for the proposed dues hike? Politics. “We must win a majority of the first 21 person fully elected school board in November,” reads the first point in CTU’s member FAQ document.1 This directly contradicts CTU’s promise to members about how leadership uses dues money. The official CTU handbook tells members that the union does not use dues money for politics, so if they are interested in funding political activity, they should consider voluntary donations to CTU’s political action committee. “Our dues are not used for political purposes,” according to the handbook. “So our PAC relies on extra contributions from our members to support progressive candidates and to impact elected officials at the city, county and state levels.” This kind of double-speak is one reason members are concerned about another constitutional change slipped into the dues hike vote, which will take place on May 20-21: an attempt to stop members from holding the union accountable. A proposed amendment to the union constitution tries to place limits on when members may bring a lawsuit against the union for violating members’ rights.2 This provision is clearly a response to members’ lawsuit against union leadership regarding Gates’ years-long refusal to publish audited financial statements. The judge in that case has repeatedly denied the union’s attempts to dismiss it. Teachers opposed to these changes have been circulating this flier, urging members to vote no. What will CTU members get in return for millions of dollars in additional dues? If the 2024 school board elections are any indication—not much. CTU leadership’s record on school board races may not inspire confidence among members. A Chicago Policy Center analysis of a dozen affiliated PACs found CTU spent nearly $2.9 million on school board races in 2024. Of that spending, more than $2.1 million (75%) went to losing candidates. And while CTU-backed candidates lost six of the nine competitive seats overall, they fared worse in their biggest-spending races, losing five of six contests in which the union and its affiliates put up more than $250,000 for their candidate. The Chicago school board elections take place Nov. 3.3 Is another $8.5 million enough to clean up a toxic reputation? Not likely. Update on federal tax credit scholarship: Last week, Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said she plans to opt into the federal tax credit scholarship program. If Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker follows suit, Illinois could unlock $1 billion in donor money statewide for both public- and private-school students. If Illinois does not opt in, that money will flow to other states. The Last Ward reported in February on how Illinois Democrats could unlock at least $100 million in new resources for Chicago public-school students by opting in. Update on the investigation into how Chicagoans learned about a meeting to hike their property taxes: The Last Ward reported in January on an absurd, taxpayer-funded investigation into how local media learned of a planned Chicago school board meeting to hike the district’s property tax levy. That investigation is now complete. Lawyers interviewed two dozen witnesses, and found nothing. Update on Illinois’ muni debt crisis: My colleague Joe Tabor last week published a must-read piece in Crain’s Chicago Business about how Illinois recently rejected south suburban Harvey’s request to be designated a “distressed city.” The saga shows why the state must implement a better structure to assist insolvent local governments, including allowing for the option to pursue debt relief via Chapter 9 bankruptcy. The Last Ward reported in October on how Harvey is tipping the first domino in Illinois’ municipal debt crisis. Mincing Rascals: I joined the Mincing Rascals podcast to discuss the SAFE-T Act, the millionaires tax, and more. My “green light” recommendation: Force Majeure (2014). 1 Notably, the No. 2 reason cited is “resources to fund a state-wide millionaires tax campaign in order to fully fund the state’s school funding formula.” The constitutional amendment necessary to implement a progressive income tax in Illinois recently died in the Illinois House, meaning this question would not appear on the ballot until 2028 at the earliest. 2 There is seemingly no single-subject rule for CTU constitutional amendments. So members only get one vote on the full package. One cannot vote “yes” on the dues hike and “no” on the restriction of members’ rights, for example. 3 Illinois law grants far too much power over local government to unelected officials like Gates. State lawmakers should fix that.
Meet Goldman’s athlete whisperer: the woman who stands guard against $1 billion of fraud targeting sports fortunes
Nicole Pullen Ross has advised the ultrawealthy for 26 years at Goldman Sachs. She talked to Fortune about working in sports and seeing a number get retired.
Colorado governor signs $47 billion budget in which ‘nobody won’
Gov. Jared Polis on Friday officially signed a $46.87 billion spending plan for the Colorado state government in the next fiscal year. His signature is the culmination of months of work by legislators, who resorted to cuts, transfers and other mechanisms to balance the 2026-27 budget amid a deficit of more than $1 billion. That […]
Kalshi, the Prediction Market, Raises $1 Billion at a $22 Billion Valuation
The platform for betting on sports, politics, the weather and more has raised $1 billion and sees big financial firms as a key source of growth.
Senate GOP fears $1B for White House ballroom represents political landmine
A Republican proposal to spend $1 billion in taxpayer money on security for the White House ballroom has become a political landmine in the Senate debate over funding Immigration and Customs Enforc…
Republicans want to add $1 billion for Trump's ballroom security to ICE funding plan
Republicans in Congress are proposing $1 billion in funding for security for President Trump's White House ballroom as part of their partisan plan to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
GTA 6 Estimated to Have Cost Take-Two $1 Billion to $1.5 Billion So Far, CEO Strauss Zelnick Says 'It Was Expensive'
GTA 6 may well be the most expensive video game ever made, with parent company Take-Two estimated to have spent $1 billion to $1.5 billion so far.
AMC Entertainment Q1 Revenue Jumps 20% Amid Box Office Recovery
The biggest theater group in the U.S. and globally, AMC Entertainment, said strong domestic performance and “vastly improved” international results across its European footprint boosted first quarter revenue, which topped $1 billion from $862.5 million the year before. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciated and amortization) was a positive $38.3 million compared to negative …
G.O.P. Proposes $1 Billion in Immigration Bill for Trump’s Ballroom Project
The money would go toward security improvements as part of an East Wing construction project, including a new ballroom that President Trump has said would be built with private dollars.
Republicans propose $1 billion in taxpayer dollars to secure Trump ballroom
The president said repeatedly that the White House ballroom would be privately funded but has raised security concerns, particularly in light of the correspondent's dinner shooting.
Senate Republicans look to fund $1 billion in security upgrades for Trump's ballroom
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans have added $1 billion in White House security upgrades to legislation that would fund immigration enforcement agencies, a proposed boost for President Donald Trump’s ballroom project after a man was charged with trying to assassinate him at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner last week. The GOP bill released late Monday would designate the money for the U.S. Secret Service for “security adjustments and upgrades” related to the ballroom project,
‘Action Is Needed’—Microsoft Changes Windows Update In 10 Days
Microsoft's critical Secure Boot security is about to expire on more than 1 billion PCs. Here's what to do.
US criticises Zambia for lack of engagement as $1 billion health deal stalls
The United States has criticised Zambia for failing to engage on a new health aid agreement governing more than $1 billion in U.S. funding, saying repeated outreach from Washington had been ignored as an April 30 deadline passed without a deal.
‘Healthier’ Las Vegas to start 2026 says Strip casino giant
Caesars Entertainment Inc. reported $1 billion in net revenue from its Las Vegas properties during the first three months of 2026, according to a report.
Australia becomes the 30th country to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem
The World Health Organization (WHO) has validated Australia for eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, marking a significant milestone in the health of indigenous peoples and in global efforts to combat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Trachoma, the world’s leading infectious cause of blindness, no longer represents a public health problem in the country.Australia is among a growing number of countries that have successfully eliminated trachoma, contributing to global progress towards the targets set out in the WHO road map for NTDs 2021–2030.Trachoma is caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis and spreads through close contact with infected individuals, contaminated surfaces, and flies that carry eye and nose discharge. Repeated infections can lead to scarring of the eyelids, turning eyelashes inward, and ultimately causing blindness if untreated.“WHO congratulates Australia on this important achievement,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “This success reflects sustained commitment, strong partnerships, and a focus on reaching populations most affected by health inequities. It brings us closer to a world free from the suffering caused by trachoma.”Australia’s journey to eliminationAustralia’s achievement reflects decades of targeted public health action, particularly in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, where trachoma persisted despite its earlier disappearance from the rest of the country.National efforts intensified with the establishment of the National Trachoma Management Programme in 2006, which implemented the WHO-recommended SAFE strategy: surgery for trichiasis, antibiotics to treat infection, promotion of facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement. Regular screening of all communities classified as at-risk of trachoma by teams of qualified health workers formed an important part of the Programme. Interventions were delivered through coordinated partnerships between federal and state governments, Aboriginal community-controlled health services, and local communities.Over time, sustained screening, treatment, and prevention activities, including improvements in housing, water, sanitation and hygiene, led to a steady decline in trachoma prevalence. Australia’s approach included adaptations to reflect its context, such as targeted treatment based on community-level data rather than mass drug administration, and strong integration with environmental health programmes.“Elimination of trachoma is a win for the eye health of communities across Australia, particularly those whose lives have been impacted by a disease that is entirely preventable,” said Mark Butler, Minister for Health and Ageing, Australia. “This major milestone is thanks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership, community commitment and sustained investment over many decades.“The lessons from this work will inform how we approach other preventable health conditions in remote and regional Australia. Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations and local health workers have been central to this success, delivering culturally safe care and community-led solutions.”“This recognition from the World Health Organization reflects decades of work led by Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations, alongside local health workers in remote First Nations communities,” said Malarndirri McCarthy, Minister for Indigenous Australians. “Their work has been critical to eliminating trachoma as a public health problem in Australia.”Advancing global efforts against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)Trachoma is one of 21 diseases and disease groups that are regarded by WHO as NTDs. Together, NTDs affect more than 1 billion people worldwide, primarily in underserved populations with limited access to essential services such as clean water, sanitation, and health care.Australia’s elimination of trachoma as a public health problem highlights the importance of sustained political commitment and cross-sectoral collaboration in addressing the underlying determinants of health. It also underscores the feasibility of eliminating trachoma even in geographically challenging settings.In addition to trachoma, Australia has several endemic NTDs, including Buruli ulcer, leprosy and scabies. Validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem marks the first time that WHO has confirmed the elimination of an NTD in Australia, which becomes the 63rd country globally and 16th in the Western Pacific Region to have eliminated at least one NTD.“Tackling neglected tropical diseases in the Western Pacific Region has long been a challenge for countries across the socioeconomic spectrum, given the complexities in reaching the most vulnerable communities, including in remote areas,” said Dr Saia Ma’u Piukala, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. “As a doctor from Tonga, I’ve experienced these challenges for myself. But I also know that with strategic commitment underpinned by optimal resources and partnerships in health, success is possible as other countries in our region have also demonstrated. I commend Australia on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem and urge all involved to remain vigilant to ensure this status is maintained.”WHO continues to support countries working to eliminate trachoma and other NTDs, ensuring that progress reaches those most in need and that gains are sustained through strong surveillance, appropriately integrated into national health systems, and mainstreamed within the wider health sector and beyond.Editor’s notesNeglected tropical diseases and trachoma elimination effortsNeglected tropical diseases are associated with devastating health, social and economic consequences. Their burden is mainly felt among impoverished communities in tropical areas.Public health targets for the control, elimination and eradication of these conditions were set in the road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021–2030 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240010352).In 1996, WHO launched the WHO Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma by 2020 (GET2020), creating a network of governments, non-governmental organizations and academic institutions dedicated to the fight against trachoma. WHO continues to support endemic countries to accelerate progress towards the global target of eliminating trachoma as a public health problem worldwide; 2030 is the new target date.Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is defined as: (i) a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) “unknown to the health system” of < 0.2% in ≥15-year-olds; and (ii) a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years of < 5%, in each formerly endemic district, plus (iii) the existence of a system to identify and manage incident cases of TT.Other countries validated by WHO as having eliminated trachoma as a public health problem are: Algeria, Benin, Burundi, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Fiji, Gambia, Ghana, India, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Togo, Vanuatu and Viet Nam.
Caesars Entertainment Posts Narrower Loss as Revenue Rises
The hotel and casino company’s sales in its Las Vegas business remained steady at $1 billion, while revenue increased across its regional and digital channels.
Rogers: Fairy tale of the $1 billion Norman arena entertainment district
Economist Cynthia Rogers challenges $1B Arena and Entertainment District claim, citing $623M value and financing differences.
Watchdog report exposes teachers' union 'political machine' funneling more than $1 billion to liberal causes
New reports reveal teachers unions poured over $1 billion into left-wing political causes in the past decade, according to Defending Education.
$1 billion over 5 years: Director of NH’s new rural health program rolls out goals for federal funds
Donnalee Lozeau, director of GO-NORTH, said her philosophy in distributing the hundreds of millions of dollars the federal government is giving New Hampshire to spend on its struggling rural healthcare system will be about long-term investments, not short-term fixes.
Forvia Sells Auto Interiors Business to Apollo Funds in $2.1 Billion Deal
The French auto parts supplier said the deal allows it to sharpen focus on high value-added, technology-driven activities, while shoring up its balance sheet.
Apollo Acquires Forvia’s Auto Interiors Unit for €1.82 Billion
Apollo Global Management Inc. agreed to buy Forvia SE’s auto interiors business for an enterprise value of €1.82 billion ($2.1 billion), according to an announcement Monday.
Forvia to sell its interiors business to Apollo Funds for $2.1 billion
French car parts supplier Forvia will sell its Interiors business to Apollo Funds for 1.82 billion euros ($2.13 billion), it said on Monday.
A $1 Billion, 100-Acre Entertainment District Is Coming to Life In Anaheim — With A New Concert Hall And Urban Park Due To Open Within A Year
OCVIBE is shaping up to be the ultimate community space around Honda Center in Anaheim. Here's what we can look forward to within the year.
‘Shutdown, Restart’—Microsoft Changes Windows On 1 Billion PCs
Microsoft confirms 'major' change affecting almost all Windows PC owners.
News | North Carolina’s Research Triangle scores another $1 billion-plus life science campus
AbbVie’s drug manufacturing complex in Durham expected to create over 730 jobs
Alabama Department of Corrections abruptly cancels $1 billion health care contract
Lawmakers told ADOC of the company's financial problems in 2023 before it awarded the contract to provide health care at its facilities.
Mayor Mamdani floats delays to pension fund payments
Council Speaker Julie Menin proposed a similar idea to save more than $1 billion a year.
Bombardier CEO Navigates Supply Chain Constraints for Defense Business After Hitting $1 Billion Goal Early
Eric Martel is navigating the Canadian jet maker through some turbulence to seize on the next leg of growth in the booming defense market.
WATCH: Padilla Slams Energy Secretary Wright on Cuts to Science Funding in Proposed Budget, Political Cancellation of California Hydrogen Hub Funding
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), a member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, questioned Energy Secretary Chris Wright about President Trump’s Fiscal Year 2027 proposed budget for the Department of Energy and its drastic cuts to science funding. “Your budget cuts the Office of Science’s funding by $1.1 billion. […]
$1 Billion Attack? France Boasts Scoring Depth Other World Cup Teams Only Dream Of
France will have rich depth in attack at the World Cup.
FERC seeks $1.1 billion from Abram-led Durham energy firms
Regulators have fined Durham-based energy-efficiency business American Efficient $722 million, saying it’s behind “one of the largest and most brazen frauds” they’ve ever seen.
News | U. of Oklahoma athletics drives plans for $1.1 billion entertainment district
Mixed-use hub's first phase to include performance venue, 'carefully curated' retail
How a little-known founder is trying to change Calif. politics — to the tune of $1 billion
You may not have heard of Maria Davidson, but tech investors like Joe Lonsdale and Garry Tan trust her with their political ambitions.
As a small business owner, I never expected to pay $100,000 protecting my business from ransomware
This is a $131 billion tax on the American economy, spread across small business owners like myself.
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
Hollywood heavyweights voice opposition to Paramount-Warner merger in letter
The deal is worth $111 billion
I grew up in a family of entrepreneurs. Here’s what I had to unlearn to build a $1 billion business
I grew up in Switzerland surrounded by entrepreneurs: my grandfather in construction, my father in surveying, my uncles in packaging and construction.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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