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Resilient Saudi economy proves a draw for wartime Gulf business
By Timour Azhari, Federico Maccioni and Yousef Saba RIYADH, June 3 (Reuters) - When food-tech entrepreneur Sara Amini wanted to see where Gulf businesses were still spending despite the Iran war, she
Resilient Saudi economy proves a draw for wartime Gulf business
When food-tech entrepreneur Sara Amini wanted to see where Gulf businesses were still spending despite the Iran war, she flew to Riyadh.
Iowa GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson says prolonged Iran war could become a "political liability"
Iowa GOP Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson acknowledged the U.S.-Iran conflict could become a "political liability" if it stretches beyond the next few weeks, according to audio obtained by CBS News.
New Mexicans vote in gubernatorial primaries as revenue soars from oil boom
Tuesday's primary election also comes at a time of promise for the next governor: Elevated global oil prices from the Iran war have translated into an influx of tax revenue.
New Mexicans vote in gubanatorial primaries as revenue soars from oil boom
Tuesday's primary election also comes at a time of promise for the next governor: Elevated global oil prices from the Iran war have translated into an influx of tax revenue.
WATCH LIVE: Rubio testifies on Capitol Hill for the 1st time since start of Iran war
The Republican former senator will sit before House and Senate committees to make the State Department's annual budget request. But the focus is likely to shift quickly to the already unsteady ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, which has been further tested in recent days by back-and-forth attacks.
The Latest: Rubio testifies before Congress for the first time since the start of the Iran war
Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces a litany of questions Tuesday about the Trump administration’s fragile or stalling diplomatic efforts around the world
Trump-backed Iowa Senate candidate says Iran war could become ‘political liability’
The comments, obtained by POLITICO, are a stark acknowledgement from Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson.
South Africa Business Mood Slips as Iran War Upends Rate Outlook
South African business sentiment weakened in the second quarter as consumers faced fresh pressures from the Iran war that’s clouded the outlook for inflation and interest rates.
The Latest: Trump faces new inflation warning from bond market, adding to midterm challenges
The energy price spike triggered by the Iran war has seeped into the price of bonds that help fund the U.S. government, causing interest rates to climb in ways that are worsening affordability pressures, hampering economic growth and creating a new risk for Republicans in November’s midterm elections
The top stock picks smart money is buying, according to Morningstar
The Iran war has fueled market volatility for months. Rather than sitting it out, Morningstar says the smart money has been buying these 10 stocks.
Japan, South Korea stocks hit more records, as oil gains on Iran war ending fragility
Oil prices have gained and stock markets in Japan and South Korea have hit fresh record highs on enthusiasm over the artificial intelligence boom, as investors await a decision on the ceasefire extension of the Iran war.
Japan’s Q1 capex stalls as Iran war concerns weigh on business confidence
(Corrects to restore dropped word 'flat' in lead paragraph) By Makiko Yamazaki TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Japanese companies' annual spending on plant and equipment remained almost flat in the first quarter, data showed on Monday, pausing after a year ...
Japan's Q1 capex stalls as Iran war concerns weigh on business confidence
(Corrects to restore dropped word 'flat' in lead paragraph) By Makiko Yamazaki TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Japanese companies' annual spending on plant and equipment remained almost flat in the first
Japan's Q1 capex stalls as Iran war concerns weigh on business confidence
Japanese companies' annual spending on plant and equipment remained almost flat in the first quarter, data showed on Monday, pausing after a year of strong growth as concerns mount over the impact of the Middle East conflict.
Trump Is Dominating GOP Primary Elections. Does That Mean Victory in the Midterms?
Come November, the Republican Party will need the support of voters outside of President Trump’s base, many of whom are deeply dissatisfied with the economy and the Iran war.
China’s Factory Activity Slows in May, Raising Questions Over Its Economy
BEIJING (AP) — China’s factory activity was flat in May, according to an official survey released Sunday, raising questions about how much further the country’s economy can shield itself from the fallout of the ongoing Iran war and pressure on demand. The official manufacturing purchasing managers ...
UK business sentiment edges up in May, Lloyds says
British business sentiment edged up in May and is now close to its level before the Iran war, according to a monthly survey by Lloyds on Friday which contrasted with most other measures of business and consumer sentiment.
Fed's favored inflation gauge remained elevated in April
The latest PCE inflation data was released by the Commerce Department and showed that inflation rose and remained elevated in April due in part to the Iran war's impact.
Eurozone Economic Confidence Rises Despite Iran War Energy Shocks
Selling-price expectations eased across all business sectors, interrupting the steep upward trend seen in the last two months.
Trump might not have a good way out of the Iran war
President Donald Trump’s war with Iran hasn’t exactly been a rousing success so far. And much of the American public expects that the conflict’s end — whenever that will be — won’t change that.
Ousted Senate Republican digs in against Trump, takes jab at leadership style
Sen. Bill Cassidy breaks with Trump on Iran war powers and DOJ spending after the president backed his opponent in Louisiana's Senate primary race.
The Latest: Iran deal progress is murky after US military says it carried out ‘self-defense’ strikes
President Donald Trump insists a peace deal is close on this 88th day of the Iran war, but Iran on Tuesday denounced U.S. strikes a day earlier as a sign of “bad faith and unreliability” as negotiations continue.
A ruse, a brave gamble or a fantasy? Why Trump’s most puzzling Iran move yet is unlikely to work
If Donald Trump’s search for a way out of the Iran war was not difficult enough, he’s added a new goal that threatens to vastly complicate the Middle East’s already splintered politics.
Netanyahu increasingly isolated as Trump pursues Iran peace deal
The lack of a decisive victory in the Iran war has led to Trump losing confidence in the Israeli prime minister, analysts say.
Trump’s emerging plan to end Iran war draws criticism from hard-line Republicans
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans who favor a harder line against the government in Tehran and fear a lost opportunity to finally rein in a longtime Mideast nemesis.
Republicans who have drawn a hard line on Iran pan Trump's emerging proposal to end the war
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans.
Republicans who have drawn a hard line on Iran pan Trump's emerging proposal to end the war
President Donald Trump’s emerging deal to end the Iran war is drawing heavy criticism from some fellow Republicans.
Himes: ‘Political toxicity’ of Iran war leading Trump to ‘surrender’
Bond breakout? Big effects of bad data. Immigration and thermostatic politics & dad-chat is coming for dad-books.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Anna Airy, A Shell Forge at a National Projectile Factory, Hackney Marshes, London, 1918 Bond breakout - John Authers Across the developed markets, bond markets are staging a slow-motion car wreck. Looking at the drastic moves in the US, Japan, the UK and France, Barclays’ Ajay Rajadhyaksha commented: “Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — “get me out of duration!”” Each country has its own contributing political problems, but the uniformity of the shift out of long-term bonds with high duration makes clear that something broader is afoot. For Rajadhyaksha, it is “simple and uncomfortable.” The developed world “has too much debt, too little fiscal discipline, and no political appetite for fixing either.” If there’s a trigger, it has been the Iran war and the resulting shock to oil supply. Source: Bloomberg G7 countries are now borrowing at rates that were enjoyed by EM in the early 2020s For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Trade between China and Russia has grown in recent years For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe Big effects of bad data A decade ago nearly nine in ten Americans, when approached, agreed to fill out the Current Population Survey, which is administered to about 60,000 households each month and asks about, among other things, employment. Fewer than seven in ten do so now (see chart 1). For the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tries to capture 3,700 households monthly, the response rate is down from 68% to 40%. … When the information becomes less reliable, investment decisions get more difficult to make. Some may be delayed, creating a potential drag on the economy. A new working paper by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Erica Groshen, former head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University, and Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, hazards an estimate. Preserving trust in “the integrity and quality of official statistics”, the authors claim, generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS, the agency with an annual budget of $700m that is responsible for many of these data. To arrive at their conclusion the quartet analysed an ignoble episode in the BLS’s recent history. On August 1st 2025 Donald Trump sacked Erika McEntarfer, appointed as the agency’s commissioner by his predecessor, Joe Biden. The president alleged, without evidence, that the BLS’s steep downward revision to recent jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. In fact, it was the wanton dismissal that looked bad in the eyes of many observers. In the following seven days there was a 50% leap, relative to the week before, in the average value of the index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which tracks the number of articles mentioning such uncertainty that are published daily in American newspapers. This was a discernible jump even when compared to the chaos caused by Mr Trump’s trade war in April 2025 and his real one in Iran in the past two months (see chart 2). Based on Mr Bloom’s earlier study with other colleagues of the EPU’s impact on business investment, industrial production and employment, the authors estimate that the jump reduced American GDP by over $100bn (0.3%) and non-farm payrolls by 168,000 (0.1%). Source: The Economist Immigration and thermostatic politics (Sarah O’Connor in the FT) A strange thing happened a year and a half ago. No sooner had Americans elected Donald Trump as president on an explicitly anti-immigration platform than US public opinion began to swing much more favourably towards immigration. … to political scientists who study “thermostatic” politics, this development is no surprise at all. Public opinion often moves against the prevailing party, especially if they are perceived to have gone “too far” in one direction. The phenomenon was first explored in the 1990s with reference to fiscal policy, but in recent years it has been particularly evident in the realm of immigration policy. While these swings in opinion polls can make it seem as if people don’t know their own minds, they can be a useful democratic check on governments by sending bright flashing warning lights when policies stray too far from the public’s comfort zone. The problem comes when politicians misinterpret those signals. When people tell pollsters they want less immigration, or think it is bad for the country overall (or the converse), they are often expressing an opinion about how things appear to be going in that moment relative to their preferences, rather than a deep shift in their underlying views. According to Alexander Kustov, a political scientist, most Americans’ views are quite stable and moderate: they support immigration that is controlled and in the national interest, and oppose flows that are disorderly or under-enforced. In the US, he argues the Trump administration over-interpreted dissatisfaction with high immigration under Joe Biden, and implemented policies that went too far for many voters. “People don’t necessarily change their idea about their ideal immigration policy, but they can react to what the government is currently doing,” he told me. “A lot of people are not happy with what the Trump administration are doing — right now we’re not talking about border enforcement, we’re talking about people not just getting harassed, but killed.” But similarly, he added, pro-immigration advocates would be making a mistake to interpret the recent, more favourable swing towards immigration as a deep-seated ideological shift in attitudes. The recent history of UK immigration policy offers another cautionary tale. After the 2016 Brexit referendum, public concern about immigration fell. This was partly because net migration statistics declined, but also because people felt a sense of catharsis and control, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a think-tank. By 2019, the public ranked immigration as only the ninth biggest issue of concern, according to Ipsos polling. But when the Conservative government liberalised visa routes for students and care workers between 2019 and 2022, that helped net migration to surge. And so, too, did public concern. Today’s Labour government has implemented another sharply restrictive turn in immigration policy. As Kustov and researcher Caitlyn Yates argue, thermostatic public opinion should be a useful check on politicians. Instead it seems to have helped to magnify the pendulum swing in the UK. The government over-interprets and overreacts to a change in public opinion, which reacts in turn, prompting a sudden swing the other way. Source: Financial Times HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Anna Airy, Shop for Machining 15-Inch Shells: Singer Manufacturing Company, Clydebank, Glasgow, 1918 Racing for a vaccine … we have been here before! The deadly Ebola outbreak in two African countries driven by a virus species with no vaccine has triggered an urgent search for a potential jab, in a test of troubled global efforts to avert threats posed by emerging diseases. A World Health Organization advisory group is due to would meet on Tuesday to recommend candidate jabs to prioritise for clinical trials, the global health body said. It will assess data including an analysis by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), which was set up after failures in the international response to a previous Ebola crisis. The latest Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has infected hundreds of people and killed more than 80, health authorities say. Cepi’s reaction will be a crucial indicator of its progress towards its wider goal of producing vaccines for pandemic threats in just 100 days, despite steep cuts to international health funding. “If there was ever a time that we could show the world why Cepi is needed and show the world why the 100-day mission is needed, it’s now,” Nicole Lurie, the organisation’s executive director for preparedness and response, told the FT. “We’re happy to accept that responsibility, but obviously we need help from partners — particularly financial help in the long run.” DR Congo and Uganda would make the final decision on whether to press ahead with any vaccine candidates endorsed for clinical trials by the WHO experts, the global health body said. “Other ethical and community acceptability issues will be considered,” said the WHO, which declared the latest outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. “This will be important to make sure that the trial, if it happens, will be adequately communicated to the population.” Lurie said Cepi had provided information from a survey of research teams and companies working on drugs that might be effective against the Bundibugyo virus behind the outbreak. The organisation hoped soon to announce partners in the quest for a jab, she added, although she declined to give a timescale for when one might be developed. Cepi’s Nicole Laurie said global health bodies were ‘getting some live-fire drills’ with hantavirus and the latest Ebola outbreak. The hunt for a vaccine should be helped by scientific advances including the use of artificial intelligence to find drugs active against viruses, Lurie said. Existing jabs against the Zaire Ebola virus responsible for many previous outbreaks might provide a basis for tackling the Bundibugyo species, she added. “We’ll see how far and how fast we can get,” Lurie said, adding that Cepi had done preliminary work recently on a possible jab for the rat-borne hantavirus responsible for a recent fatal outbreak on a cruise ship. “Both with hantavirus and now with Ebola, [we] are getting some live-fire drills.” Source: Michael Peel in the Financial Times Dad-chat is coming for dad-books. (By Pamela Paul and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg in the WSJ) They were the go-to gifts for Father’s Day: a book about some little-known chapter of World War II, the sweeping narrative of a shipwreck, perhaps the latest presidential biography. These days, dad books are a dying breed. Nonfiction book sales have been in decline for the past four years, and are now the most challenged segment of the print book market. Publishers say certain types of books still fare well—including celebrity memoirs and religious titles. But in recent years, print sales in such categories as biography, current affairs and business and economics—what publishers refer to as “serious nonfiction” and which tend to resonate especially with men—have fallen considerably. Sales of nonfiction print titles were down nearly 8% through May 9 this year, and sales of books about politics and current affairs were down 19%, according to book tracker Circana BookScan. Publishing has long been subject to cyclical changes, with trends in format and genre taking over bookshelves in grand sweeps. (Remember the adult coloring-book craze? Or the stratospheric rise of romantasy?) But many in publishing believe the decline in serious nonfiction is more existential. “The trend couldn’t be clearer,” said Jonathan Karp, the former chief executive of Simon & Schuster and publisher of the new Simon Six imprint. “This is a sea change and people should wake up and realize we’re living in a new world.” One culprit for the shift: a new media diet for fans of more serious nonfiction. … Sixty-two percent of men and 54% of women consumed a podcast in the prior month, according to a recent survey by Edison Research at SSRS, up from 46% and 39%, respectively, in 2023. “When we have internal meetings to talk about this problem, it always comes around to podcasts,” said Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Group at HarperCollins Publishers. “The man who wants to read American history is now tuning into one of the many good podcasts about history that lends the quiet attention to a serious subject he’s looking for. It makes the idea of sitting down with a 700-page Ron Chernow book less appealing. You’ve scratched that itch.” Source: Wall Street Journal Remarkable report by Novara from the nationalist rally in London in mid May. Anna Airy, Leopard Moth and Plums, 1915 If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
As China tensions loom, US temporarily pauses Taiwan weapons sales due to Iran war, acting Navy secretary says
The U.S. temporarily paused weapons sales to Taiwan to ensure munitions are ready for potential Iran escalation, Acting Navy Secretary Cao testified.
Abu Dhabi is ‘doubling down’ on tourism despite Iran war
The emirate has announced a $1.7-billion investment in the Sphere entertainment venue.
French Business Confidence Languishes Below Long-Term Average
French business confidence remained weak in May, adding to evidence that the fallout from the Iran war is weighing on domestic demand in the euro area’s second-largest economy.
House Republicans Pull Vote to Limit Trump’s Iran War Powers
Democrats say GOP leaders were afraid the resolution would pass.
GOP leaders abruptly cancel House vote on Iran war powers, shielding Trump from rebuke
House GOP leaders abruptly canceled a vote Thursday on a resolution to limit President Donald Trump’s war powers in Iran just as Republicans were on the verge of losing the vote due to absences.
Sterling steady but weak business activity data weighs
The pound was steady against the dollar on Thursday as broader currency markets focused on developments in the Iran war, while traders digested some worse-than-expected surveys of British business activity.
House expected to take another Iran war vote
The vote is the latest effort by Democrats to rein in Trump's military campaigns by using the War Powers Resolution of 1973
Democrats are hoping for a breakthrough as the House takes another Iran war vote
The House is expected to vote on legislation to compel President Donald Trump to withdraw from the war with Iran.
Iran war hits small business hard
Small business profits are sinking as entrepreneurs deal with a confluence of forces ranging from rising labor costs to higher energy prices.
Senate advances resolution to end Iran war as GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy flips to support it
The Louisiana senator, who lost his primary over the weekend, voted in support of the war powers resolution for the first time. It advanced 50-47, with a final passage vote yet to come.
Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran war as Cassidy, after primary loss, flips to support it
The Senate advanced legislation Tuesday that seeks to force President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Iran war, as a growing number of Republicans defied the president's wishes.
Senate advances resolution to limit Trump's Iran war powers for first time, after 4 Republicans defect
Goldman Sachs, Moelis Say Business as Usual Amid Iran Conflict
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s international co-heads say the turbulent start to the year has done little to deter clients, underscoring Wall Street’s bullish outlook despite events like the Iran war.
UK wage growth slows and unemployment rate rises as companies react to Iran war
Jobless rate unexpectedly rises to 5% with businesses squeezed by war in Middle East
UK unemployment unexpectedly rises to 5% as firms squeezed by Iran war
Pay growth eases to 3.4% as businesses face pressure from soaring energy costs
The Middle East Oil Crisis Has Already Cost Global Businesses $25 Billion
Global companies are raising prices, cutting production and preserving cash as the Iran war drives oil and gas costs sharply higher.
Iran war saddles global companies with $25 billion bill
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has already cost companies around the world at least $25 billion - and the bill is climbing, according to a Reuters analysis.
‘Won’t be anything left’: Trump issues warning to Iran after national security team meeting
President Donald Trump met with top members of his national security team on Saturday to discuss the path forward on the Iran war, a source familiar with meeting told CNN, a day before he said Tehran “better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.”
The Iran War Is Crippling One of the World’s Wealthiest Nations
Iranian attacks have paralyzed Qatar’s vital gas exports and are stalling the tourism and business pivots that were intended to anchor its future growth.
Global inventory race intensifies: Shadow of Iran war
The global rush to stockpile manufactured goods on fears of an energy-supply crunch will again overshadow business surveys in the coming week.
Now What? With Carbon Pricing Eroded and Pipeline Politics Advancing, Here Are the Pathways for Climate Success
At the end of a whirlwind week of news on carbon pricing and electricity strategy, capping a madcap year of pretty much non-stop, dramatic change, the word across much of Canada’s climate and energy transition community is that climate policy in this country has been shredded. Eviscerated. Hit with a sledgehammer by policy rollbacks that have pushed the country’s 2050 net zero target “well out of reach”. That means it’s never been more important to look for the rays of hope and glimmers of possibility. To glimpse the seeds of the next set of strategies to get Canada’s climate pollution under control and the country into the accelerating global dash away from fossil fuels. And then, once we’ve spotted those possibilities, get on with the hard, day-to-day slog of trying to make them a reality. Nothing takes away from the frustration and the deep disappointment so many climate and energy hawks are expressing, the sense of betrayal by the author of Value(s) and the former UN special envoy for climate action and finance. But we knew two things as the week drew to a close. We’re looking at the world as it most definitely is. And we don’t get to give up finding the pathways to confront climate change and deliver faster, deeper carbon cuts that leave no one else behind. So really, the first question we all have to ask ourselves is: What’s next? Subscribe All the Oxygen in the Room The outpouring of anger and grief over the carbon pricing deal between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been absolutely understandable. So much of the climate community poured years, more than a decade, into dragging the current federal pricing regime across the finish line, then defending it from a deluge of three-syllable rhymes after the Trudeau government proved utterly incapable of delivering its own message. The policy foisted on us by neo-classical economists took up all the oxygen in the room, burned through years of climate response time that we won’t get back, while cornering climate hawks into the position that the best response to the crisis of our lifetimes is a new tax…in an era of historic anti-tax sentiment. I mean, really—what could possibly have gone wrong? Against that history, let’s appreciate columnist Max Fawcett’s point that even a modest carbon pricing agreement with a government as off-the-wall libertarian/conspiracist as Danielle Smith’s—those adjectives are mine, not Max’s—is a win worth savouring (as long as Smith keeps her promises for a change). But part of living in the world as it is (no, I’m not letting that go) is to be clear-headed about what we can and can’t control. And one thing we get to decide, after seeing this week’s carbon price festivities take up all the oxygen yet again, is whether we want to keep letting that happen. Particularly when success down that road depends on a factor that no one with a climate agenda can control or influence—a provincial carbon pricing mechanism that has been manipulated and eroded beyond its lowest possible denominator. Thankfully, that’s not the way it has to go. Not when we have so many other powerful, practical tools at our disposal, including the ones still available to us through this abominable Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and Alberta. Tools In Our Toolbox When I started roughing out this list, I didn’t expect it to grow to nearly a dozen bullet points. It’s probably still incomplete. Some of the greatest hits in today’s climate solutions toolbox include: • No Carbon Capture, No Pipeline: On Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney explicitly stated that there’s been no change to the MOU provision that there will be no West Coast pipeline without an industry commitment to build its massive, $16.5-billion carbon capture and storage (CCUS) hub in Northern Alberta, and vice versa. The two megaprojects were joined at the hip when the MOU was signed Nov. 27, and the implementation agreement this week affirmed that they still are. A parade of independent analysts have spent years pointing to the economic and technical flaws in CCUS, while the industry kept postponing its investment decision until it could arm-twist the government for more “clarity” (by which it meant even more lavish taxpayer subsidies) on the project. Now the industry itself is running away from the CCUS hub and insisting the pipeline should proceed without it, but Carney doesn’t seem to be budging from a central tenet of the MOU to which Smith has signed on. • No Subsidies, No Investors: Climate analysts and advocates have quite rightly been hammering away at Carney and his team, insisting that any new capacity the industry wants to build must proceed without new subsidies. The government has responded with a growing collection of funding and financing mechanisms for the very wide menu of industrial development and nation-building projects they say they want to take on, and that menu always includes fossil fuel infrastructure. But it’s hard to see how even the combined fiscal clout of the federal and supportive provincial governments will deliver the financial backing private investors would need when the business case for new fossil fuel development is evaporating before their eyes. Particularly when… • No Market, No Demand, No Investors: As our friend Markham Hislop at Energi Media (our apparently sleepless friend, given the massive volume of great material he’s been churning out) points out this morning, the biggest vulnerability in any pipeline deal is the assumption that Asian buyers will want the oil or liquefied natural ga that our fossil industry is so keen to send them. Hislop writes in part: Ottawa and Alberta are effectively betting that countries like China and India will continue increasing oil imports for decades as their economies grow and energy consumption rises. That assumption underpins the entire economic rationale for expanding oil sands production and building billions of dollars in new export infrastructure. But Asian energy systems are changing rapidly… China, India, South Korea, and other major hydrocarbon importers are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars into electricity systems built around wind, solar, batteries, nuclear, hydro, and expanded transmission infrastructure. Domestic “energy sovereignty” is increasingly replacing the old energy-security model based on stable oil and gas imports. Those investments are expected to sharply slow oil demand growth and eventually reverse it, even as overall energy consumption continues rising. There are also refining constraints. Many Asian refineries and petrochemical complexes are already optimized to process discounted heavy crude from the Middle East and Latin America. That raises serious questions about how much additional Canadian bitumen Asian markets can absorb at profitable prices. Small wonder that there’s still no private sector investor for the project, despite Smith’s government desperately beating the bushes to put together a deal. For now, Alberta is acting as proponent and covering early start-up costs for a pitch to the federal Major Projects Office, which could actually turn into the next tough hurdle for Smith and her pipeline to jump. • Canada Day Looms: How ironic that Canada’s birthday this year could become a major chokepoint for the provincial premier who’s been working so diligently to tear the country apart! The July 1 target date for Alberta’s pipeline proposal is baked into the MOU, was reaffirmed by the implementation plan, but it hadn’t dawned on me that it cuts both ways. As one very smart colleague wrote in an email yesterday, “they’ve thrown the ball into Alberta’s court to get the project proposal on the table really quickly and to have to do a whole pile of work to put together a massive, complicated project that would typically take years to assemble, and they’ve given them weeks to do it.” That makes July 1 a looming deadline that Smith won’t be able to run away from politically, especially with the separatists in her party and her caucus breathing down her neck. (See previous ref to off-the-wall.) But if Alberta comes in with a sloppy, incomplete submission, even after Carney bent over backwards to simplify the application process and the rules that govern it, it may be harder for the province or the industry to blame Ottawa and insist on the faster process they claim their investors are demanding. (Oh, wait—which investors would those be??) • We’ll See You In Court (Then We’ll See You Again): If Carney did cave, that would be just one more reason for Indigenous and other affected communities to take the government and the process to court—Just as Alberta First Nations did, successfully, in response to Smith’s half-baked separation referendum. Veterans of the Harper era have been warning that a shoddy process around fossil fuel infrastructure or other major projects will be a recipe for the very delays that process seeks to avoid. And now more than ever, with renewable energy and energy storage eating fossil fuels’ lunch in import markets around the world, a delayed pipeline or LNG terminal may be as good as a cancelled one. • Charged Up, Ready to Go: With its goal of doubling Canada’s electricity supply to meet a doubling of demand by 2050, the national electricity strategy that Carney unveiled Thursday has a lot to like. With its explicit language about speeding the shift from fuels to more efficient and affordable electricity, global investment and deployment patterns that already favour that shift, an emerging bidirectional power grid, the role of front-line options like rooftop solar and heat pumps, the emergence of electric vehicles as behind-the-meter energy storage, and the domestic jobs and manufacturing to make it all happen, the document doubles down on the essential cornerstone of a faster shift off fossil fuels. The strategy envisions a more prominent role for gas and nuclear power. But some of those provisions were already in the Clean Electricity Regulations that climate hawks are now fighting so hard to defend, inserted as a compromise in a futile attempt to mollify the industry and its political representatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. But once again, gas will be a tougher sell when it’s more expensive and now so much more unpredictable than the clean alternatives. The new nuclear technologies are still speculative and deeply vulnerable to cost overruns. Increasingly, utilities, developers, and investors know it. Carney declared Thursday that “it doesn’t do us good to be sitting in court all the time with provinces. It doesn’t do us good to be talking past each other. What does do us good is to come together with specific projects.” There are no guarantees, but so much of the language and narrative-building in the electricity strategy suggests the lion’s share of those projects will be renewable. • The Party Has Already Started: The electricity strategy only rarely digs down to specific projects, but provinces representing three-quarters of Canada’s population are already embracing a faster transition. Hydro-Québec is working on a 10-year, $185-billion renewable energy and grid buildout by 2035. Ontario recently brought 10 provinces and territories together in a National Energy Corridor Agreement to boost interprovincial and -territorial transmission infrastructure. And the MOU implementation agreement commits Alberta to facilitate investment in renewable energy projects, a big step back from its continuing, punitive restrictions on renewables development. The electricity strategy envisions much of the financing and infrastructure that will be needed to pull those advances together into an integrated whole. • Delivering on Affordability: The MOU implementation plan has little or nothing to say about affordability (are you surprised?), but the electricity strategy does, with a top-line pledge to reduce home energy costs for seven out of 10 Canadian households by 2050, a total saving of $15 billion across the board. It’s just a start, but it puts affordability on the government’s narrative map. If they’re serious and deliberate about patching together a least-cost energy strategy, it’ll have little if any room for oil, gas, or nuclear—not with powerful evidence, for example, that electricity prices are higher when those prices are set by gas. • Smith Proves that Canada Works: By signing a deal that makes it harder to claim the federal government is blocking a new pipeline, Smith has helped prove Carney’s constant anti-separatist refrain that “Canada works”—incurring the rage, no doubt, of her own political base. Canada also needs to work for anyone who depends on a clean environment, healthy and thriving ecosystems, and safe, stable climate. But with Smith and her separatist constituents setting up as a fifth column for annexation by Donald Trump’s United States, let’s set aside any notion that 51st state status for Canada is a recipe for anything other than climate disaster (and so much else). Resisting and withstanding Trump (just 170 more sleeps until mid-term elections, which is a damn sight better than the 730 we started with) doesn’t mean a free pass for a pipeline, but we can still appreciate it that keeping Canada whole and sovereign is still Carney’s Job One. • The Words Not Spoken: Apart from a commitment to export a million barrels of “low-emission” Alberta bitumen per day (memo to Smith and Carney: You realize that that’s less than the industry is already exporting??), the MOU implementation plan says nothing about the international trade and economic sovereignty deals that Carney has been travelling the world to negotiate. It didn’t have to. Carney doesn’t need permission from Danielle Smith, her American enablers, or her separatist allies to continue building the alliances that will ratchet down our economic dependency on our unstable, unreliable neighbour to the south. But every connection he builds with countries outside North America helps align our economy and our future with a faster shift off fossil fuels. Little if any of this was on our bingo cards a year or two ago. But it’s the pathway that has opened up to us. And if it gives Canada any climate or energy gains at all in an era still dominated by Trump and his increasingly ridiculous tariffs, his loutish trade negotiations and his continuing annexation threats, we have to take the wins. Not least because they’ll be the point of departure for what we can achieve in 2027, 2029, and beyond, as Trump’s grip and this era begin to loosen and then fade. What is Carney Doing? If this line of thought is right—and it’s a possibility, not a prediction—it means that Carney’s actions and decisions are largely about buying time. Time for Trump’s power to wane. Time for Alberta’s separatist/conspiracist virus to spread, mutate, die out, or at least die back, with help from a vaccine of federal steadiness and calm (appropriate enough, for a movement populated largely by vaccine deniers) that no conspiracy theory can dismiss. And time for the government’s trade and investment agenda to deliver results—even knowing that some of those results will bring impacts that front-line communities will not and should not accept. In the immediate moment, none of this changes the way the wider climate community has to respond, from campaigners to investors to front-line practitioners. All of our voices are still essential. But those voices will be stronger and more confident if we have a clearer sense of the brutal game we’ve been pulled into, and a plausible path (or two it three) for playing it to the win we need. This conversation also underscores our biggest task for the remaining years of what was supposed to be the “decisive” decade for climate response: if we can shift the energy narrative in Canada, make it a mainstream view that the country’s preoccupation with oil and gas has us falling farther behind a changing world, we’ll see far better results in the 2030s and beyond. For many veteran climate advocates, taking on that part of the fight will begin with recognizing that most of our friends and family, neighbours and colleagues already understand that climate change is real and right in front of us: they’re looking away and staying silent because they don’t have what climate communicator Katharine Hayhoe calls “efficacy”. As Hayhoe recently pointed out in a feature interview with The Energy Mix, it amounts to science denial to keep hammering away at the dire news about global warming without also helping audiences understand what they can do about it, with multiple studies telling us why that won’t work. Far better to open those conversations with the dominant crises like energy security, food security, emergency preparedness and business continuity, affordability, and financial security that have knocked climate change far lower on the list of public priorities, and will likely keep it there. We Knew This Would Happen Climate hawks have always known this day would come. For decades, we warned that everyone had to pay attention to climate change right now, because it would be much tougher to respond once the crisis itself started affecting our daily lives. We were right, and here we are. But now, thanks to decades of hard work, communities and countries have an alternative to doubling down on fossil fuels. “In 10 years everyone will have ‘always known’ that solar and batteries were going to win,” Morgan Solar Executive Chair Mike Andrade writes on LinkedIn. With the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz roiling energy priorities around the world, Canada and the United States are among the shrinking number of countries that are still very keen on fossil fuel development. Understanding that gap is a first, essential step in spotting the opportunities ahead, and averting the deep economic as well as environmental and social risk we face if we don’t seize them. Thanks for reading The Energy Mix Weekender! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Mitchell Beer traces his background in renewable energy and energy efficiency back to 1977, in climate change to 1997. Now he and the rest of the Energy Mix team scan 1,200 news headlines a week to pull together The Energy Mix and The Energy Mix Weekender. Chart of the Week BYD Eyes 20 Dealership Locations After Canada Greenlights Chinese EV Imports ‘Sledgehammer’ Carbon Price Deal Boosts Emissions by 230Mt, Aims for Fall 2027 Pipeline Approval ‘Worse Than Harper’: Regulatory Rollback Would Stop Canada from Assessing Project Impacts, Critics Warn Electricity Strategy Aims for Doubling by 2050, Allows ‘Flexibility’ for Gas Power Plants Opposition Mounts as O’Leary’s Data Centre Approved in Drought-Stricken Utah Diluted Carbon Price Misses ‘Reality of the World We’re In’, Could Impede Diversified Trade: Climate Institute $200B in Clean Energy Investment Will Need On-Time Delivery, Reliable Policies, Trade Association Says ‘Sovereign Pipeline’: CEO Pitches to Keep Trans Mountain in Government Hands What a Supercharged El Niño Could Mean for Canada Canada’s future is electric, and here’s how a power grid superhighway would get us there (Toronto Star) The Perilous Waters of Hecate Strait (Globe and Mail) Saudi Aramco profits jump despite conflict in Middle East (The Guardian) Farmers confront rising cost of fertilizer and fuel as spring seeding under way (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) Clarkson forecasts 24% decline in offshore oil, gas capital expenditures (Oil & Gas Journal) Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa (Oil Change International) Developing countries must hold the pen to script the fossil fuel transition (Climate Home News) Iran war threatens the dream of a post-oil economy in the Gulf (Washington Post) U.S. Oil, Gas Work Force Hits Lowest Level Since 2022 (Rigzone) Why Polestar Is Doubling Down on Net Zero as Rivals Pull Back on EVs (Bloomberg) Why this Michigan utility plans to sell its hydro dams for $13 (E&E News/Politico) Levees can no longer save New Orleans (Vox)
Trump says Iran war worth economic pain and these rural voters agree
Rural Trump supporters in Colorado say they will accept higher gas prices for Iran policy goals and to prevent Iranian nuclear threat.
Trump defends saying he isn’t thinking about Americans’ finances amid Iran talks
The president also said he’s not considering the political implications of the Iran war on the midterms, when Republicans will be defending slim majorities in each chamber.
Trump’s ‘financial situation’ gaffe underscores his Iran war problem
President Donald Trump has governed throughout his second term like a man who wields unconstrained power. It tends to prompt frustrations for him later when the approach runs headlong into reality.
What Americans quietly stopped buying in April
Shoppers pulled back on spending in April as higher gas prices fueled by the Iran war meant less money left over for some nonessentials like clothing and furniture. Retail sales rose 0.5% in April, a slowdown from the revised growth level of 1.6% in March, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. March marked the […]
UK Growth Surge Under Threat From Iran War, Political Turmoil
The UK kicked off the year with a burst of economic growth that is now at risk from the fallout from the Iran war and the prospect of a new prime minister.
Trump courts Xi amid Iran war and trade tensions
Trump praised China’s leader and emphasized their personal bond as both sides sought to steady relations despite tensions over Iran, trade and global power.
UK GDP report to show how Iran war hurt economy in March
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the UK’s latest GDP report
New Mexico politicians grapple with oil windfall from Iran war that's both 'awesome' and awkward
A global oil bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has created a financial windfall on the other side of the world in New Mexico that is both enviable and politically sensitive in a Democratic-dominated state.
What Trump says vs. what the intelligence says on Iran
One of the Trump administration’s key talking points on the Iran war is that the Islamic Republic’s missile and military capabilities were devastated in US-Israeli bombing campaigns before the ceasefire began in April.
Fact check: Trump falsely claims the inflation rate was just 1.7% prior to the Iran war
After newly released Consumer Price Index figures showed that the year-over-year inflation rate was 3.8% in April, the highest in nearly three years, President Donald Trump tried to reassure Americans about rising prices – in part by falsely claiming the inflation rate was just 1.7% prior to the war with Iran.
Trump says he ‘doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation’ as he heads to China for talks with Xi Jinping
President says he ‘doesn’t think about anybody’ when questioned on financial impact of the Iran war as he departed for Beijing
WATCH: Murray calls Pentagon's Iran war cost estimate 'suspiciously low,' presses for damage price tag
Trump Says Americans’ Economic Pain Is Not a Consideration for the Iran War
Asked whether Americans’ financial situation was motivating him to make a deal, President Trump said bluntly, “Not even a little bit.”
Hegseth faces bipartisan grilling about weapons drawdown during the Iran war
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing tough questions from Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the Trump administration’s end game for the Iran war, the cost of the conflict and its
Trump Faces Emboldened Xi in China as Iran War Clips US Leverage
Donald Trump is expecting economic deals and a “wild” welcome this week in China. In reality, he’ll arrive facing an emboldened Xi Jinping, just as his own hand is constrained by the conflict in Iran.
Inflation continued to rise in April as Iran war impacted energy prices
Inflation continued to rise in April as consumer price growth has picked up due to the impact of the Iran war on energy markets and gas prices.
How the Iran war could weaken Trump in his strongman showdown with Xi
Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week is a capstone event meant to demonstrate the president’s indelible mark on world history.
Trump pushed DOJ to subpoena reporters over alleged Iran war leaks, sources say
President Donald Trump personally pushed the Justice Department to issue subpoenas to reporters covering the war in Iran in an effort to flush out their sources, according to officials familiar with the matter.
Trump’s Complaints About Iran War Leaks Prompt Aggressive DOJ Investigations
The Wall Street Journal has received subpoenas for records of reporters.
Trump Endorses Feeble Way to Lower Gas Prices
President Trump has endorsed suspending the federal gas tax, which won’t do much to solve the problem he created when he started the Iran war.
Trump heads to China this week to meet Xi as Iran war and trade disputes loom over summit
It will be the first time a US president has visited China in nearly a decade, with the last visit being Trump in 2017
UK ‘to lose 163,000 jobs in 2026’ amid Iran war fallout, as oil price jumps again
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
‘Degree of complacency’: are supply chains prepared for impact of ongoing Iran war?
The economic warnings are bleak, but full extent of shortages are still not felt for many European countries
Iran war could make Trump's trip to China a bit chillier than his first-term visit
President Donald Trump’s trip to China may not come with the same fanfare that accompanied his first-term visit
Iran war could make Trump's trip to China a bit chillier than his first-term visit
President Donald Trump's trip to China may not come with the same fanfare that accompanied his first-term visit.
Iran war could make Trump's trip to China a bit chillier than his first-term visit
President Donald Trump's trip to China may not come with the same fanfare that accompanied his first-term visit.
Morgan Stanley MD shares when he thinks rate cuts are coming
Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon thinks the market could see a rate cut in six months if the Iran war ends soon.
Business Lookahead: Trump on Tour
STORY: From Trump's trip to China, to a slew of new U.S. data releases, these are the stories to watch in business and finance in the coming week. :: Trump goes to Beijing U.S. President Donald Trump visits Beijing on Thursday and Friday.It will be his first visit to China in eight years.He'll try to lock in the trade truce agreed to in October in South Korea, and avoid a rerun of the tit-for-tat tariff battle that he set off a year ago.Fresh trade data should offer a reality check on whether a protectionist White House has managed to dent Americans' appetite for Chinese-made goods.:: Saudi Aramco posts resultsThe world's biggest exporter of crude oil, Saudi Aramco, reports first-quarter results on Sunday.The numbers are expected to show the pain from the more than two-month-old Iran war.This comes as efforts to end the conflict appeared to stall after the U.S. and Iran traded fire in recent days, with some of the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire began a month ago.:: U.S. economic dataA bunch of new data should give a clearer view of inflation in the U.S.Tuesday's April consumer price index is expected to rise 0.6% according to a Reuters poll.Prices at the pump are likely to loom large in the numbers.Producer price data for April on Wednesday is another inflation checkpoint after the Fed’s last meeting exposed a more hawkish tilt among some policymakers who are increasingly uneasy about price pressures.And retail sales figures on Thursday should show whether higher gas prices and other costs are starting to bite into household spending.
The Iran war has changed. Trump’s talking points have not
Like Lucy with the football, President Donald Trump keeps teasing that a deal to end the war with Iran is nearly over.
China says exports grew at faster pace in April, rising 14.1% from a year ago
China says exports have risen 14.1% in April from a year earlier, despite the Iran war and lingering impacts from higher U.S. tariffs.
Sony forecasts lower gaming business sales amid memory price surge
STORY: Sony forecast lower sales in its gaming business due to a memory chip price surge.The tech giant said Friday annual sales in the segment would fall 6% to $28 billion.It also blamed lower hardware sales as its PlayStation 5 ages.Although the Japanese company said it expects gaming profit to rise 30%.That's due to higher first-party software sales and no repeat of the impairment loss it recorded a year earlier.Sony has been praised by analysts in recent years for its transformation into an entertainment powerhouse.But markets have grown concerned about the impact of AI on its business, while Sony also faces a perceived lack of growth catalysts.Both factors have weighed on shares in recent months.Investors are also concerned about the impact of a memory-chip price surge.As well as disruption to supply chains from the Iran war on margins at electronics manufacturers.The firm said it sold 1.5 million PS5 consoles in the fourth quarter, which was a 46% drop on the same period a year earlier.Looking ahead, the PS5 is expected to receive a major boost from the launch of the delayed "Grand Theft Auto VI."The game is due to release in November.Sony said in February it had secured the minimum quantity of memory needed to manage the year-end shopping season. Sony also said it sees higher profits at its pictures and chips units but a lower profit at its music business.The group reported operating profit for the year ended March rose 13.4% to $9.2 billion - below analyst forecasts. Meanwhile, rival Nintendo said it expects to sell 16.5 million units of its Switch 2 console in the financial year ending March 2027.It also projects profit to rise 2.7% to $2.36 billion.But, like with Sony, investors are concerned about the possible impact of a memory price surge on margins.
Trump is not getting what he initially wanted from the Iran war
It remains to be seen what, if anything, comes from the latest Iran war peace talks. President Donald Trump has claimed a deal was imminent before. And the agreement on the table seems to be preliminary, regardless.
House Republican Proposes Bill to Wind Down the Iran War
Representative Tom Barrett, a Michigan Republican facing a tough re-election race, introduced a bill to impose limits the use of military force in Iran and end the fighting this summer.
Is the FDA Really Suppressing Science? Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, May 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aaron MacLean says Trump is poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Iran war. Joe Klein on the life of CNN founder Ted Turner. Jillian Lederman on why cruise ships are here to stay. And much more. But first: Is the FDA suppressing science? On Tuesday, The New York Times published a story with an alarming takeaway. “FDA Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” read the headline. It is the latest in a string of stories that all have the same message: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies, are engaged in a cover-up—and silencing scientists trying to get the word out about the Covid vaccine. What all these stories suggest—some more subtly than others—is that the outsiders now running the public health establishment, officials such as Marty Makary at the FDA and Jay Bhattacharya at the National Institutes of Health, are on a revenge tour. That they are doing harm to the country to get back at the scientists and bureaucrats who ostracized them for deviating from the public-health consensus during the pandemic. It’s a seductive narrative. But is it true? That’s the question we address in our latest editorial. —The Editors Read [ Marty Makary's FDA Has All the Right Enemies ](https://www.thefp.com/p/marty-makary-vaccine-study-fda) [ Trump Blinks First ](https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-peace-deal-pakistan-trump-strait-of-hormuz) Aaron MacLean In return for no detectable concessions, President Trump this week gave up on forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Trump administration looks desperate for a deal to end the war with Iran. It’s easy to understand the desire to end the war, but are they blowing the chance at victory? Aaron MacLean makes sense of the administration’s latest moves—and Iran’s response—in his column today. Read full story Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson: Live in New York City Join Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson on May 19 for a live recording of School of War at the iconic New York Historical. In a conversation as timely as it is wide-ranging, Aaron and Niall will explore the strategic stakes of the moment, including the Middle East, China, and the future of American leadership on the global stage. Get Tickets Now [ Ted Turner, the Optimist Who Built CNN ](https://www.thefp.com/p/ted-turner-cnn-tribute) Joe Klein The man who gave us CNN and the 24-hour news cycle, Ted Turner, died Wednesday at the age of 87. Today, political writer Joe Klein—who almost ghostwrote Turner’s autobiography—remembers his friend, the American media mogul who stood out for his idealism and lack of a filter—something that got Turner in trouble more than once. “His was not a traditional intelligence, but one of horizon: Ted saw things before other people did,” Joe writes. Read full story [ Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship ](https://www.thefp.com/p/cruise-ship-hantavirus) Jillian Lederman A viral outbreak on a cruise ship that left three passengers dead has left some people wondering: Are cruise ships on the way out? Not so fast, says Jillian Lederman, who has been on many a cruise herself. Read her piece on why 38 million people a year take a cruise—and aren’t about to stop. Read full story [ The Great Writers Who Were Terrible People ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-great-writers-who-were-terrible) Shilo Brooks Throughout history, some of the greatest literary geniuses have also been immoral bigots. In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks is joined by Eli Lake for a conversation about those geniuses, from Voltaire to Norman Mailer and Roald Dahl—and why we should read their work despite their odious prejudices. Listen on MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Inside the Digital Intifada ](https://www.thefp.com/p/digital-intifada-social-media-hamas-terror) Warren Kinsella Read full story [ This Week in American History: Trump’s Over-Arching Problem ](https://www.thefp.com/p/this-week-in-american-history-trumps-over-arching-problem) Jonathan Horn Read full story [ Humanity Is Still Evolving—and Fast ](https://www.thefp.com/p/humanity-is-still-evolvingand-fast) Razib Khan Read full story THE NEWS Thirteen D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have been placed on administrative leave and could face termination after an internal investigation found evidence that crime statistics were manipulated to make the city look safer. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee previously alleged that former D.C. police chief Pamela Smith pressured officers to skew data. Tennessee Republicans unveiled a redrawn U.S. House map yesterday that would split up Memphis’s black-majority Democratic district, the latest move in a nationwide push to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the midterms. The effort follows a Supreme Court ruling last week on Louisiana’s districts, which Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton said gave states the green light to redraw maps along partisan lines. Israel struck Beirut for the first time since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month, saying it targeted a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force in the city’s southern suburbs. The strikes risk destabilizing that truce at a delicate moment, as Iran and the U.S. report progress toward a deal to resolve their own standoff. The U.S. Air Force is aiming for a Fourth of July delivery of a Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, hoping to add it to the Air Force One fleet in time for the U.S.’s 250th anniversary, Reuters reported. (For more on the controversy surrounding the aircraft, read Jed Rubenfeld’s piece “It’s a Terrible Idea, but Trump Probably Can Accept a Free Jet from Qatar.”) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified privately before Congress that he has no memory of why he and his family dined on Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, according to Reuters. The admission contradicts Lutnick’s earlier claim that he had cut ties with the convicted sex offender well before that visit. Weeks before a former JPMorgan investment banker filed a lawsuit packed with explosive allegations, the bank reportedly offered him $1 million to settle his sexual assault and harassment claims, according to The Wall Street Journal. The suit, filed by Chirayu Rana, alleges he was sexually assaulted by a female colleague, subjected to racial discrimination, and forced into a degrading dynamic at work. JPMorgan says the claims lack merit, and the female colleague’s lawyers call the accusations fabricated. A new report from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research shows that, for the first time in roughly 20 years, church attendance is trending upward, with more people volunteering and clergy expressing renewed optimism. The study’s authors described the findings, based on a survey of more than 7,400 congregations, as showing signs of widespread recovery from low attendance numbers.
JD Sports warns Iran war could hit consumer spending and raise prices
Retail group with 4,800 stores worldwide expects drop in profits this year amid ‘muted market’
Business Owners Everywhere Can’t Escape Iran War’s Ripple Effects
From lost income to worsening inflation, small and midsize operators around the globe are feeling the pain.
Democrats see Senate control within reach — but some big hurdles remain
The political terrain remains forbidding, but the president’s crumbling approval ratings and the Iran war’s weight on the economy offer the party an opening.
What’s the domestic benefit of the Iran War? NewsNight panel debates
Iran War Looms Over Vance as He Visits Iowa
The vice president, a skeptic of the war, made his first visit of the cycle to the state that will kick off the 2028 nominating process.
What can Trump accomplish at the China summit?
Iran war will overshadow the meeting with Xi
Shipping firms are being whipsawed by changing stances and risks as they wait for Hormuz to reopen
With hundreds of vessels still stuck in the Persian Gulf and costs piling up, shipping companies are being whipsawed by uncertainty over how and when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen more than two months into the Iran war.
US and Iran closing in on memorandum aimed at ending war, source says
The United States and Iran are moving closer to an agreement on a short memorandum to end the Iran war, a regional source familiar with the negotiations said, although Trump administration officials cautioned that talks had previously fallen apart at the last minute.
Singapore Defers Considering Political Pay Review on Iran War
Singapore will postpone considering an independent panel’s recommendations on the salaries of political office holders until the economic impact of the Iran war becomes clearer, a government minister said.
Iran war amplifies divisions within both parties over U.S.-Israel ties
On the campaign trail and elsewhere, the alliance has gone from a bipartisan consensus to a subject of fierce debate among Republicans and Democrats alike.
White House Insists Iran War Is Over, Even While Missiles Fly
The White House is turning to rhetorical leaps as President Trump tries to put the biggest political crisis of his presidency behind him.