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Indonesia and the politics of platform governance
The relationship between governments and digital platforms is never simple. Governments can introduce regulations, but digital platforms also possess enormous power through the technologies, algorithms, and global information infrastructure they control.
Duffy withholds federal funding from New York over immigrant trucker licenses dispute
New York will lose more than $73.5 million in federal money because the Transportation Department said Thursday that state has refused to revoke nearly 33,000 questionable commercial driver's licenses for immigrants since an audit uncovered problems last year.
Health officials warn of measles exposure at Mt. Hood Community College campus in Gresham
Oregon health officials say there was another measles exposure in Gresham, this time at a building on the Mt. Hood Community College campus.The Oregon Health Au
SVG New Sponsor Spotlight: 4Wall Entertainment’s Dave Caulwell on Scaling Live Event Production for Sports
As live sports production continues to expand across linear, digital, and in-venue platforms, the demand for high-end production infrastructure — from lighting and video to audio and rigging — has...
How are NFL teams handling complications of Rueben Bain Jr. car crash? 5 questions answered
Did Pete Hegseth just quote 'Pulp Fiction' during a Pentagon worship service?
Pete Hegseth seemed to quote 'Pulp Fiction' as he paraphrased a Bible verse during a recent Pentagon worship service.
Hochul: $43M going to help communities afford water infrastructure projects
The purpose of the funds is to help local communities avoid costly rate increases.
Samsung is promoting a Galaxy S26 feature without confirming it for S25, S24
Samsung is promoting a new Galaxy AI feature that is currently exclusive to the Galaxy S26 series, but awaited by the Galaxy S25 series users. Audio Eraser has been one of the widely recognized features of the most recent One UI ecosystem. First introduced with Galaxy S25, it helps to reduce background noises that interrupt […]
Colorado high school girls flag football quarterback commits to Nebraska
As the popularity of high school girls flag football continues, so does the groundbreaking moments in the sport and earlier this week, the first ever player to commit the a Division I, Power 4 program occurred. Mountain Vista (CO) Class of 2027 quarterback Ariana Akey via Instagram announced her commitment to Nebraska for women’s flag […]
Raskin v Moore: what do the stats say?
Midfielder Nicolas Raskin and on-loan Tottenham winger Mikey Moore have split opinion among fans over who should be Rangers player of the year. Raskin, who was phased out under previous boss Russell Martin, has become a key player in Danny Rohl's team as Rangers continue their push for the league title. Moore, at just 18 years old, has also been impressing since joining on a temporary spell from the English Premier League outfit.
Health-E Commerce® to Demonstrate Engagement and Technology Solutions for Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs), Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), and Health Reimbursement Arrangement (HRAs) at WEX® SPARK Partner Conference 2026
Health-E Commerce®, parent brand to FSA Store® and HSA Store®, announced today that it will join benefits industry leaders as a Platinum sponsor of the WEX SPARK Partner Conference 2026, a premier event for health and benefits professionals taking place April 27–29 in Orlando, FL.
4 New Apple Intelligence Features Found in Apple Code, Likely in iOS 27
iOS 27 is likely to introduce at least four new Apple Intelligence features that function within system apps, based on backend code discovered by Nicolás Alvarez and confirmed by MacRumors. First up, Apple is expected to lean more heavily into Visual Intelligence in iOS 27, since the company is reportedly developing AI wearable devices that will leverage the feature. Apple is reportedly working on smart glasses, AirPods with cameras, and a wearable AI pin or pendant.
America's Open for Business
Just over one year into the second Trump presidency, trillions of dollars have poured into American manufacturing, AI infrastructure, energy, and technology. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes the case for how the administration’s bold trade policy, deregulation, and America First economics are redefining the United States as the world’s premier destination for capital.
Lehigh Sports Central: Men's Tennis
On the latest episode of Lehigh Sports Central, men's tennis senior Jackson Morash and 5th year Sean Jaeger preview this Saturday's Senior Day matchup agains...
Gov. Kathy Hochul’s pathetic 'science of reading' fiasco
Credit Gov. Kathy Hochul with recognizing that New York needs to drastically up its game when it comes to teaching kids to read — but mock her for paying the state teachers' union to produce a...
Hampton debates whether residents should subsidize business trash pickup
Hampton is once again debating whether Hampton taxpayers should continue paying some of the cost for beach business trash pickup.
Pilot in Deadly Plane Crash Was Being Filmed for Apple Vision Pro Video
Claire Lomas, a British paraplegic known for overcoming medical trauma to participate in the London Marathon, was being filmed for an Apple Inc. immersive Vision Pro video when she crashed an aircraft in the Jordan desert two years ago.
📲 Thursday: Liberta, Sul-Americana, Europa League, Brazil +; guide
Today’s Highlights 🔥Libertadores7:00 PM - Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal - Paramount+ 7:00 PM - Lanús vs Always Ready - ESPN 4 and Disney+9:30 PM - Flamengo vs Ind. Medellín - ESPN and Disney+ 9...
LA Galaxy Embarrassed and Eliminated 3-0 At Home
Los Angeles, Calif. -- The LA Galaxy were overcome by a scarlet wave, both in the stands and on the field, as they fell 3-0 (2-7 on aggregate) at home to Liga MX champions, Toluca, in the second leg of the Concacaf Champions Cup Quarterfinal on Wednesday, April 15, 2026.
Infrastructure, politics influence election for north Fort Worth council seat
Chris Jamieson and Alicia Ortiz are seeking the north Fort Worth seat left open by Alan Blaylock as he runs for state office.
China doubles ‘AI for science’ computing scale in 2 months using no US chips
The Zhengzhou core node becomes the country’s most powerful scientific intelligent computing infrastructure, CCTV says.
Pillen doesn't believe government can fix mental health crisis, puts part of blame on social media
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen discussed the mental health crisis following the deadly Walmart incident.
Nebraska state employee health insurance fund nearing depletion
The fund balance for covering state employee health insurance claims could soon run dry, according to a new report from the Nebraska auditor.
Police chase ends in car crashing through chimney sweeping business in Middle TN
A high-speed police pursuit in Chapel Hill ended in the car crashing through a chimney sweeping business on Tuesday night.
Allbirds Is Selling Its Sneaker Business to Become an AI Company. The Stock Just Surged 650%
After years of losses and a 99% stock collapse, the struggling shoemaker is betting on AI infrastructure.
Trump Mobile Drops Trashy Update on New Phone
Still no word on when exactly the garish device is supposed to hit the market, almost a year after the company’s launch.
Dems file 25th Amendment bill amid Trump outbursts
The bill was introduced by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.)
How Meta’s little-known chip business fits in with Zuckerberg’s ‘superintelligence’ ambitions
Taking a page from Google’s and Amazon’s books, Meta is racing to vertically integrate its AI infrastructure with its Broadcom deal.
Canon Firmware Update for the EOS C400, C80, C70, C50, and R5C Announced
Canon has announced a series of firmware updates for most of their Cinema EOS cameras, including the EOS C400, C80, C70, C50, and R5C
HealPort Raises 1.2M USD to Scale Global Digital Health Infrastructure
MUSCAT, Oman, April 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HealPort announced that it has raised $1.2 million in funding to accelerate development and deployment of its integrated platforms and supporting infrastructure designed to help governments, health agencies, and institutions strengthen health system intelligence, planning, and decision-making. The funding will be allocated to three priorities: infrastructure development and integration, global ecosystem expansion, and establishing HealPort as the
‘Pothole Politics’ Meets a Hell’s Kitchen Crater at W42nd & 9th Avenue
Three weeks of sewer repairs snarl traffic at W42nd and 9th, exposing underground infrastructure clashes and testing Hell’s Kitchen patience.
Harborside Brass Quintet at The National Museum of Nuclear Science & History
Navy Band Southwest’s Harborside Brass Quintet gives a public performance at The National Museum of Nuclear Science & History in Albuquerque, NM.
Forgotten scientist Foote gets her due as climate science pioneer
Kansas writer explores local 19th-century scientist Eunice Newton Foote’s overlooked climate science discovery, highlighting gender barriers that erased her contributions from scientific history.
They counted on a rural dialysis unit to keep them alive. Then it closed
A hospital in Nebraska shut down the only dialysis unit for miles, upending lives. That's despite a new federal program that gave the state more than $200 million to improve rural health care access.
StarTalk: w/ Andy Weir on the Science of Project Hail Mary (Transcript)
Editor's Notes: In this episode of StarTalk, Neil deGrasse Tyson welcomes back acclaimed sci-fi author Andy Weir to discuss the intricate scientific foundations of his latest bestseller-turned-film, Project Hail Mary. The duo explores the fascinating
China’s Next Megaprojects Are Built for Big Science
Data shows how China’s infrastructure drive is beginning to include new scientific instruments built to explore the frontiers of physics, astronomy, and energy.
DOJ moves to erase seditious conspiracy convictions of Oath Keepers, Proud Boys in Jan. 6 cases
In court filings, prosecutors asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to vacate the convictions so that the government can permanently dismiss the indictments.
Gambling companies funnel money into ballot measures to legalize online sports betting – and to individual candidates
As popular online gambling platforms funnel millions into the campaign to legalize online sports betting in Nebraska, some companies are also making significant contributions to individual campaigns.
Nebraska business owners left scrambling as Painted Tree Boutiques ceases operations
Business owners are scrambling to retrieve their items after Painted Tree Boutiques abruptly shut its doors on Tuesday.
MusiCares Launches Groundbreaking Suicide Prevention Training And Mental Health Resources For Music Professionals In Partnership With The Jed Foundation
The groundbreaking digital microsite provides suicide prevention and mental health resources, evidence-informed learning and support tools, and a suicide prevention training course — all tailored to music professionals.
Beyond the Algorithm: The business of fun
Depending on the setting, Chris Davenport might describe his career in a number of ways, but if he had to distill it into a single phrase, he would probably say: professional risk manager. Over decades in the mountains...
There were 'audible screams of delight:' Why Artemis II sightings of meteor flashes on the moon have scientists giddy
Meteorite strikes spotted on the moon by the Artemis II crew will help scientists assess dangers to future moon bases, infrastructure, and astronauts.
DA wants Sam Altman arson suspect Daniel Moreno-Gama held without bail
Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly threw a lit Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's home and threatened to burn down OpenAI's headquarters.
Gorgeous Pixel Art Indie Game Arrives Busted On Xbox Series S
Replaced is scoring very well on PC, but the lower-tier Xbox has a game-breaking crash and incomplete ending
GoPro's Mission 1 offers 8K 60p video and interchangeable lenses
DJI is fighting back against rivals with a new line of cameras called Mission 1, designed to greatly improve video quality over the Hero 13 cameras.
How AI cameras are changing video capture in youth sports
XbotGo reports that AI cameras are transforming youth sports video capture, making it easier for families to record games without distraction.
The Talbott Brothers to showcase songs from latest album ‘Borderlands’
The Talbott Brothers, heavily influenced by Bruce Springsteen’s “Nebraska,” will perform April 17 at CSPS Hall in Cedar Rapids.
GoPro goes bigger and pro-er with support for Micro Four Thirds lenses
Larger sensors, still pretty small cameras.
GoPro Launches MISSION 1 Action Cinema Cameras With 8K and 50MP 1" Sensor
GoPro introduces the MISSION 1 series, a new class of action cinema cameras featuring a 50MP 1 inch sensor, 8K video, and an interchangeable lens system for advanced creators.
Conagra’s new CEO faces a pricing bind with no clear fix
John Brase inherits a company squeezed by an industry-wide struggle to win back cost-conscious consumers — a force J.M. Smucker contended with before cutting his job.
'New Estêvão'? Palmeiras gem on City Group's radar: details
Young forward Eduardo Conceição, just 16 years old, is drawing attention from the European market.In excellent form for Brazil at the South American Under-17 Championship, where he has already recor...
‘A crisis in the making’: Nebraska races to impose work requirements on Medicaid
The state’s May 1 enforcement will be a test case for what could happen nationwide in January.
UMass Chan faculty, medical students aim to improve health through reducing hospital waste
As part of an initiative to help reduce unnecessary waste, students, faculty and staff participated in a 24-hour trash audit at UMass Memorial Medical Center.
Grasp Hires Chevalier as New Chief Executive
Grasp Technologies has appointed Maria Chevalier as CEO, succeeding Chris Wilson. Chevalier, a former corporate travel buyer, has extensive experience in travel management and previously served on Grasp's board. Her goals include focusing on innovation and client-centric strategies.
Fulshear leaders, businesses navigating rapid growth as population rises
Fulshear, one of the fastest-growing cities in the country, has grown from about 2,500 residents to more than 50,000, according to city leaders. Business owners say the population boom is bringing both new customers and growing pains, including heavier traffic and increased strain on infrastructure and public safety.
Australian business sentiment crashes in March on worries about fallout from Iran war
Australian business confidence plunged last month by a magnitude only seen during financial crises as the Iran war gave rise to a global oil shock, a survey showed on Tuesday.
How Amazon is expanding its car-sales business
Amazon (AMZN) is expanding its car-sales business to include Jeep, Chevrolet, and other automakers. Yahoo Finance Senior Autos Reporter Pras Subramanian breaks down the details.
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy among seven Arizona Sports Hall of Fame inductees
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy and Frank Busch were among seven inductees to the Arizona Sports Hall of Fame in recognition of their impact on Arizona’s sports legacy.
Contra Costa Health nurses demand Board of Supervisors stop drastic budget and service cuts
Registered nurses with the California Nurses Association will speak out at the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, April 14, to demand that the board stop drastic budget cuts to save the Contra Costa Health system, maintain services, and retain nurses in the wake of the significant projected financial losses created by H.R. 1.
How Commissioner Joe Neunder became a symbol of everything voters distrust in SWFL
Sarasota land deal raises ethics questions and fuels voter distrust
Scientists decode the dynamic heart of elephant grass chromosomes
Centromeres act as the control centers of chromosomes, ensuring accurate genetic inheritance during cell division, yet they remain among the least understood genomic regions due to their repetitive structure.
Bill Foley downplays Lorient-Bournemouth multi-club fears
Multi-club ownership is very much in fashion, especially in Ligue 1. It isn’t a phenomenon without resistance, however. A section of RC Strasbourg Alsace’s fanbase are veciferous in their oppositi...
Breakout Bras Builds Its Business On Personal Service...And A Perfect Fit
Melissa Thomason's 'Breakout Bras' in Greenville offers a rare personal bra fitting experience, helping women find comfort and confidence.
The AI Revolution in Math Has Arrived
AI is being used to prove new results at a rapid pace. Mathematicians think this is just the beginning.
Conagra CEO Connolly is out after 60% stock slide
The Chicago-based company said today that CEO Sean Connolly will step down at the end of next month and be replaced by consumer goods veteran John Brase, on June 1.
On positioning nurses as health experts
Landmines ahead for Vinay Prasad’s successor, hospitals and chatbots, and more health news from Morning Rounds
Matrix Business Systems Builds a Better Way to Manage Print
Education partnership: How a Nebraska-based office technoogy dealer Matrix is redefining how organizations manage print infrastructure.
The Ultimate Secrets of Strixhaven Limited Set Review
Ready for a second semester at Strixhaven? We'll give you a crash course on everything you can expect from this Limited format.
Workforce health is the bedrock of global supply chains. Here's how to protect it
With workers' health under pressure from a growing array of global risks, coordinated action by governments, employers and insurers is needed to treat health protection as a broader infrastructural issue
Dick’s House of Sport coming to Sarasota. See what it’ll look like
House of Sport, an immersive sports retail concept from Dick’s Sporting Goods, is coming to Sarasota. See photos from recent openings.
Schwalbe Reveals New Romy Tire, UltraSoft Compound & Radial Tacky Chan
New tread patterns and new rubber compound options.
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
Working at the Grassroots Level: A Qualitative Exploration of Frontline Health Workers’ Experiences in Tribal Maternal and Reproductive Health Services
Background Frontline health workers play a crucial role in bridging gaps between health systems and marginalized communities. However, there is limited evidence of their experiences within tr...
From Jurassic Park to dreams of AI doom, pop culture shapes science more than we like to admit
The relationship between science and pop culture often looks like a one-way street: scientific discoveries inspire films, television and novels, particularly in science fiction. But the relationship really ...
Bay Area business owner re-dumps mountain of trash on customer driveway after broken promises on payment. Was he right?
This dumpster dispute really dumped things on a whole new level turning one missed payment into a trashy pile of fines, fees and chaos.
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
‘Euphoria’ has outgrown itself, on screen and off
Everything was different when “Euphoria” premiered in 2019. Now, as the series makes its long-awaited return Sunday, the third and final season of the show is emerging into a drastically different world, both in terms of the story being told on screen and the generation of stars the show helped launch off screen.
Mississippi reveals its full history for America's anniversary year, a contrast to federal efforts
America’s history is being seen through different lenses as the country celebrates its 250th anniversary | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
📺 Sunday schedule (12): Brasileirão, derbies and crackers in Europe
Sunday (12) features big rivalries across Brazil and plenty of European football. Check the schedule and where to watch, and plan ahead!Brasileirão 🇧🇷11am - Athletico vs. Chapecoense: Premiere...
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Valuation Check As Options Volatility Climbs And Analyst Caution Grows
Recent trading in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) options has shown unusually high implied volatility. This points to expectations of sharp share price swings, while analyst sentiment on the stock and sector remains cautious. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. The latest share price of $9.36 sits against a 30 day share price return of 34.04% and a year to date share price return of 47.59%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 21.48% contrasts...
Beloved band’s fans heartbroken after key member dies in crash: ‘Fly high my brother!’
He was 67.
Pacoima business owners say Montague Street conditions are driving customers away
Montague Street in Pacoima has become nearly impossible to ignore. Trash, abandoned furniture, and human waste line parts of the sidewalk and street, creating conditions that business owners say ar…
Tigres thrash and outclass Chivas at El Volcán!
Tigres made a statement at El Volcán, thrashing Chivas 4-1. The felines controlled much of the match, handing the Liga MX leaders one of their most painful defeats of the Clausura 2026. The party st...
Apple AI Glasses Will Rival Meta’s With Several Styles, Oval Cameras
Also: The latest on the foldable iPhone.
Scientists rethink DNA after discovering it can be built from scratch in a process they call 'doodling'
Scientists show DNA polymerases can build long, patterned DNA without a template called "doodling," opening new paths for synthetic biology.
Mid-Missouri event offers free health services, brake light repairs and meals
Tallgrass Collective hosted a free clinic offering health services, vehicle brake light repairs, food and clothes Saturday from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
Crash Ends Heim’s $500K Bid at Bristol
Multi-truck incident with 70 laps left derails Triple Truck Challenge sweep
I changed my embarrassing Gmail username without losing anything, and you can too
Google now lets Gmail users switch to a new address while keeping the old one as an alias — here's how!
Spring volleyball: Nebraska tops Iowa State in Sioux Falls
Nebraska volleyball handled business in its first spring match against Iowa State on Saturday, April 11, inside the Sanford Pentagon. Before the match, the two teams agreed to play four sets, as the Huskers won all four (25-17, 25-16, 25-16, 26-24).
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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📺 Today’s guide: Saturday packed with Brasileirão, Bundesliga on OF +
Brasileirão Série A - 11th Round4:30 PM - Remo x Vasco da Gama - Globo and Premiere 4:30 PM - Vitória x São Paulo - Globo, Premiere and YouTube (GE TV) 6:30 PM - Mirassol x Bahia - Premiere 8:00 P...
Temple volunteers prepared local rec centers for spring, summer sports
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