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Acclaimed astrophysicist and electric slam poet blend science and storytelling in upcoming UCSC lecture
The second annual Landesman Lecture features UC Santa Cruz professor Enrico Ramirez Ruiz in conversation with slam poet Jasmine Schlafke—blending science, poetry and storytelling to explore our deepest origins and shared humanity. The lecture series is made possible by UC Santa Cruz faculty retirees, Edward (Ed) and Miriam Landesman.
Arsenal v Sporting: Champions League quarter-final, second leg
Minute-by-minute report: Join Simon Burnton for all the latest news as the Gunners host Sporting with a semi-final place up for grabs
Hochul, Mamdani push tax on luxury second homes in New York City
The tax would apply to homes worth $5 million or more.
Former deputy surgeon general is recommended for CDC director, sources say
The agency has had a tumultuous run during Trump's second term and only had a permanent director for one month last summer.
German health minister announces billions in cutbacks
The comprehensive reform package aims to plug a multi-billion-euro hole in Germany's expensive healthcare system. The reforms include mandatory second opinions for costly surgeries and no more homeopathy.
Hades 2's second post-launch update secretly adds a new game mode
Hades 2's second post-launch update, which has been released alongside the PS5 and Xbox ports, has secretly added a new game mode to the game.
LaMelo Ball should have been ejected for tripping Bam Adebayo, Heat coach says
Adebayo left the game with a lower back injury after appearing to be tripped during the second quarter.
Taute and Cooch Named to College Sports Communicators Academic All-America® Teams
Juniors Ada Taute and Abby Cooch of the Denison University women's basketball National Championship team have been named as Second and Third-Team Academic All-America® as selected by College Sports Communicators for the 2025-26 season.
Presidential Downballot Losses: An Updated History and a Look Ahead to Trump’s Second Term
Since World War II, presidents have consistently presided over losses for their party in down-ballot offices—in the Senate, the House, governorships and state legislatures.
How a 17-Year-Old’s Science Fair Project Became a Life-Saving Reality
Cresilon says its plant-based gel can stop critical bleeding in seconds. First-responders are starting to catch on.
No let-up from Southend after reaching play-offs
Southend United captain Gus Scott-Morriss rules out the team taking a breather in their three remaining National League games after securing a play-off place for the second consecutive year.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid – Match preview and team news
Bayern Munich faces Real Madrid at their home turf on Wednesday night in a Champions League quarter-final second leg.Vincent Kompany’s men head into this match with a one-goal advantage from the fir...
Schmaltz scores 2 goals as Mammoth defeat Jets 5-3
Nick Schmaltz scored twice as the Utah Mammoth beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-3 on Tuesday night and secured the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. Schmaltz scored his first goal for the Mammoth 4:54 into the second period on the power-play, assisted by Mikhail Sergachev and Dylan Guenther. He added a power-play goal 7:16 into the third, assisted by Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller.
Prince Harry says children should be an 'upgrade' of their parents as he talks mental health in Melbourne
The Duke of Sussex combines two of his passions, mental health campaigning and sport, on the second day of an Australia visit.
Home advantage? Our Arsenal writers discuss the Emirates atmosphere before Sporting CP’s visit
As Arsenal host Sporting in the Champions League quarter-final second leg, we discuss the tension within the Emirates crowd
LaMelo Ball's layup, Miles Bridges' block at buzzer give Hornets win over Heat
LaMelo Ball made a layup with 4.7 seconds left in overtime, Miles Bridges blocked Davion Mitchell's attempt at a winning layup at the buzzer, and the Charlotte Hornets beat Miami 127-126
NBA play-in: Coby White 3, late LaMelo Ball layup propel Hornets in OT thriller past Heat
White sent the game to OT with a 3 as Kon Knueppel watched from the bench. Then LaMelo Ball redeemed himself with a game-winning layup in the final seconds.
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
Pitt Team Shines in National Bioethics Competition
In an annual tournament where students debate ethical issues in medicine, biotechnology and health care, the Pitt team placed second.
Hades 2's second post-launch patch adds in more prophecy conclusions and flirtier friends
Plus, plenty of quality of life changes.
Apple Releases Second iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, tvOS 26.5 and watchOS 26.5 Public Betas
Apple today provided public beta testers with the second releases of upcoming iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, watchOS 26.5, and tvOS 26.5 updates for testing purposes. The public betas come a day after Apple provided the betas to developers. After signing up for beta testing on Apple's beta site, public beta testers can download the updates using the Software Update section of the Settings app on each device.
Expedition 74 Opens Cygnus XL and Unpacks Advanced Science Gear
The hatches are open between Northrop Grumman’s second Cygnus XL cargo spacecraft and the International Space Station following its robotic capture and installation on Monday. The Expedition 74 crew is now beginning to unload some of the new science and crew supplies delivered on Monday.
Ethics panel clears Life Science Hub board member for paid adviser gig under ‘hardship’ exception
For the second time in less than two years, Patrice Milos is temporarily swapping her volunteer role on the board for the Rhode Island Life Science Hub to take a paid agency position. And again, the s...
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting as Trump seeks to limit it
The 30-second message features a variety of voters, among them a busy farmer and a flight attendant, explaining why they cast their ballots by mail.
Community Routes: Access to Mental Health Care Program Bolsters Services Across Three States
Direct Relief, Teva Pharmaceuticals, and the National Association of Free and Charitable Clinics, or NAFC, today announced a second round of grant funding in the amount of $75,000 to each of 11 fre…
Library of Congress appoints Arthur Sze to a second 1-year term as US poet laureate
U.S. poet laureate Arthur Sze has been appointed to a second one-year term by the Library of Congress | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting
The 30-second union ad features voters explaining why they vote by mail and will start airing in Ohio this week
Mikel Arteta wants to see ‘no fear’ and ‘pure fire’ from Arsenal’s players and fans
Arsenal could be without several key players for their Champions League second-leg tie against Sporting on Wednesday.
Arteta on team fitness, 'pure fire' and Sporting
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has been speaking to the media before Wednesday's Champions League quarter-final second leg against Sporting at Emirates (kick-off 20:00 BST). Arteta was vague on team news, adding that "a few of the boys" will be assessed Wednesday morning to see if they can play. Declan Rice, who did not train on Tuesday, is one of those but Arteta would not give details on the reason he is sidelined.
Arsenal injury news ahead of Sporting: who is available?
Mikel Arteta met with the media ahead of Arsenal’s Champions League quarter-final second leg against Sporting on Wednesday and delivered the following updates on his injured players.Photo by Carlos ...
Key players miss training before Sporting clash
Five of Arsenal's key players were missing from the open part of training before the Gunners quarter-final second-leg match against Sporting in the Champions League. Arsenal have a 1-0 advantage from the first leg but have a number of injury issues in the squad. Declan Rice, who played 90 minutes of Arsenal's 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth at the weekend, was not seen in the first 15 minutes of the training session that was open to the media.
Arsenal vs Sporting CP: TV channel, kick-off time, live stream, referee, injury and team news
All you need to know ahead of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal second leg between Arsenal and Sporting.
Spain Business Confidence Falls 2.3% in 2Q, Most Since 4Q 2022
Spain’s business confidence fell 2.3% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, the biggest decline since the end of 2022, according to data from the Spanish statistics office. The survey showed 21% of business establishments expect a favorable quarter, while 16% are pessimistic about their business outlook.
🥐Champions matchday, clash at Wembley... Tuesday's 5️⃣ stories
Champions League quarter-final second legs, a new round in the Libertadores, or a women’s England-Spain at Wembley. I’m not asking you to outdo me, just match me. The end of the Atleti-Barça tril...
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona – Match preview and team news
Atletico Madrid is gearing up for their Champions League quarter-final second leg as they welcome Barcelona to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tuesday.Diego Simeone’s men head into this match with a...
WalletHub: Fort Myers second-best small town to start a small business
Florida had 8 small cities in the top 20.
Leeds grab lead at Old Trafford inside five minutes 💥
Leeds United really couldn't have asked for a better start to Monday's match against Manchester United at Old Trafford. Seconds after kick off, the visitors almost went 1-0 up after Dominic Calvert-L...
Overwatch out on Nintendo Switch 2 tomorrow, up to 60 FPS and more
We have an update on Overwatch (previously known as Overwatch 2), as Blizzard just confirmed the release date for the Nintendo Switch 2 version. As it turns out, it’ll be out tomorrow. One of the highlights of Overwatch on Nintendo Switch 2 is support for up to 60 frames per second for both docked and handheld play. Blizzard says the...
Apple Seeds Second iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 Betas to Developers
Apple today seeded the second betas of upcoming iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 updates to developers for testing purposes, with the software coming two weeks after Apple released updated first betas. Registered developers can download the betas from the Settings app on the iPhone or iPad by going to the General section and selecting Software Update. iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 do not include new Siri capabilities, suggesting any Siri updates are being held until iOS 27.
Apple releases iOS 26.5 beta 2 for iPhone
Apple has released the second iOS 26.5 beta for developers. iOS 26.5 beta 2 follows two versions of the first...
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
Speedrunner Breaks Mario 64 Record Despite Feeling 'Cooked'
Suigi shaves seconds off his own record, but reckons it could still be minutes shorter
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran war
OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter, citing the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, a copy of its monthly oil report seen by Reuters showed.
Sports Daily: Rory goes back-to-back; Royals offensive struggles continue
We recap a dramatic Master’s Tournament in which Rory McIlroy won his second straight green jacket.
The Ultimate Secrets of Strixhaven Limited Set Review
Ready for a second semester at Strixhaven? We'll give you a crash course on everything you can expect from this Limited format.
STUDY: Tennessee has second-highest failure rate for businesses in their first year
It’s not easy to keep a business going in Tennessee, according to a new study from LendingTree.
Patriots host second quarterback prospect on pre-draft visit
The Patriots are taking an up-close look at Texas A&M QB Behren Morton.
Key Test Looms for South Africa’s Coalition, New DA Leader Warns
The new leader of South Africa’s second-biggest political party expects the stability of the nation’s coalition government to be put to the test when its larger rival holds internal elections next year.
Bayern planning second summer signing
After joining Bayern Munich on loan from Gambinos Stars Africa in January, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye finally made his debut for the German champions in their 5-0 win over FC St. Pauli on Saturday, coming off...
🗞️Today's headlines: No giving up, and a flying Lamine
The week begins revving up ahead of the Champions League quarter-final second legs.It is the week of truth for Madrid, Barça and Atleti in the Champions League, and the sports press wakes up with ral...
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy holds on to win his second straight Masters
McIlroy had a six-stroke lead after two rounds, but entered the final round in a tie for first place. On Sunday, he pulled away on the back nine for his second green jacket.
Rosenior: Chelsea ‘nowhere near’ expectations against Man City
Liam Rosenior was highly critical of Chelsea’s second-half performance after they fell to a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City on Sunday. The Blues started brightly at Stamford Bridge and even thought t...
STUDY: Tennessee has second-highest failure rate for businesses in their first year
It’s not easy to keep a business going in Tennessee, according to a new study from LendingTree.
State reminds businesses to file second quarter business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
Mauricio Dubon back in center for Braves-Guardians finale
With Michael Harris Jr. on the paternity list and Eli White day-to-day with plantar fasciitis, Mauricio Dubon will make his second straight start in center field for Sunday night’s finale of the Braves-Guardians series in Atlanta. Dubon will hit eighth in the lineup followed by Jorge Mateo, who will make his second straight start at […]
Chelsea 0-3 Man City: What Rosenior said
If you go down against teams as good as this, what you have to do for the next five minutes is to stay in the game. It ended up being a really, really difficult second half." On building resilience in the team: "I am accountable.
Ryan Day reveals Ohio State's extreme recruiting standards
During a recent podcast experience, Ryan Day raised eyebrows when he said the Buckeyes are only looking for future first and second-round draft picks.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
Virginia Mercury wins multiple Virginia Press Association awards
The Virginia Press Association recognized the outstanding work of dozens of news publications across the state on April 11 in Lynchburg, with The Virginia Mercury receiving first and second place awards across multiple categories for reporting and column writing in 2025. • Health and housing reporter Charlotte Rene Woods and editor-in-chief Samantha Willis earned the […]
How to Build a Balanced Plate in 30 Seconds
Building a balanced plate can feel like one more impossible task. But it doesn’t have to be complicated. Here's how to do it.
Red Sox eager to build momentum in finale vs. Cards
Brayan Bello will take the mound on Sunday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals as the Boston Red Sox try to win their second consecutive series and first one on the road this season.
Key South African Coalition Member Gets New Leader as Vote Looms
The second-biggest political party in South Africa’s ruling coalition appointed a new leader as it gears up to contest municipal elections that look set to reshape the country’s political landscape.
The most important Democratic health care debate is raging again
Single payer is getting a second wind.
Bengals’ mid-round targets hinted with latest NFL draft visit
Another Bengals visit hints at what the team might want to do in the second round and beyond.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
Illinois football hosts Mom’s Weekend practice
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (WCIA) — Illini football took a break from the traditional spring practice for one that featured a special twist. Amidst mom’s weekend on the U of I campus, players’ moms took to the practice field with their sons for a second straight season. These football families are grateful for the quality time together […]
Arsenal Ratings vs. Bournemouth: Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz Drop Stinkers
Arsenal was second best all over the pitch on a dismal afternoon, who missed out on the opportunity to open up a 12 point gap over rivals Manchester City.
🚨 Atlético Nacional line-up confirmed
Atlético Nacional plays its second match of the week and arrives at the Atanasio Girardot as the away side for the Clásico Paisa. El Verdolaga will defend the outright lead against DIM on Matchday 1...
2026 Masters final round tee times, how to watch: Can Rory McIlroy win a second straight green jacket at Augusta National?
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one on Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace that Lowry has made at Augusta National.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
People Throw Away This Common Electronic Item Without Knowing It Holds 450MG of Pure 22-Carat Gold
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NHL Playoffs: What’s next for the Penguins?
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I’m a second-year student at Northeastern, and I’ve already changed my major four times — twice last semester. I know that sounds stressful, kind of scary and like I have no idea what I want to do with my life. But currently, my major is combined political science and journalism, and despite the changes I...
Celebrate Amazing Stories and Science Fiction’s 100th Birthday
Doors Open 7:15 p.m. Celebrate Amazing Stories and Science Fiction’s 100th Birthday with us! In April 1926, Hugo Gernsback published Amazing Stories magazine for the first time, and while the name of the genre took a few more years to become a household term, many credit this moment with the birth of Science fiction fandom as we know it today! Join us for a two-panels featuring a discussion on the impact of Amazing Stories and Science Fiction as a genre! Featuring published authors, scholars, and podcasters with deep knowledge of the history and great works of the last 100 years. The second panel will be a how-to guide for writing your own Science fiction stories or novels, including teachers, authors, and scholars of the genre. Verbatim Books on Facebook / Instagram
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3L Rachel Sadler Charts Path in Brain Health, Technology, and Policy Through UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
3L Rachel Sadler studies health law and policy at UC Law SF while researching the legal implications of neurotechnology and other emerging tools that may affect human cognition. 3L student Rachel Sadler shares how UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration prepared her for a career focused on the intersection of brain health, government policy, and technology. Gained a detailed understanding of how U.S. health care is regulated and where policy reform is needed through coursework and research. Interned with state and federal agencies that regulate health care services and worked with a major health care provider’s bioethics department. Plans to pursue a career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy as new technologies reshape healthcare. 3L Rachel Sadler: The Health Law Concentration has given me fluency in one of the most complex regulated industries and the tools to become an effective advocate for better health policy. Before coming to law school, I spent a decade teaching and working with teachers and administrators on high school programming for multilingual learners. Healthcare kept emerging as the most powerful driver of student outcomes. I wanted to understand how to make effective policy change in this area and how to use existing law to defend people’s health rights in California. Through the concentration’s coursework, I gained a sophisticated understanding of how U.S. healthcare is regulated. I also learned where the pressure points for reform exist. The courses gave me space to develop what became my central research interest: how law and policy can be built to protect human cognition and healthy brain development, particularly regarding new technologies such as generative AI and neurotechnology. The health law faculty were instrumental in that process, genuinely invested in helping me and other students define and pursue our own intellectual vision. During law school, I interned at the General Counsel’s Office for Region IX of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. I also externed at the California Department of Justice’s Health, Education and Welfare Division. Additionally, I externed at Kaiser Permanente Northern California’s Bioethics Department. Alongside those placements, I conducted extensive independent research on mental privacy and emerging neurotechnology, working closely with Professors Emily Murphy and George Horvath. That research became the throughline of my law school experience and the foundation of my current policy focus. I must also credit Nicole Ozer of the Center for Constitutional Democracy (CCD), whose deep knowledge of California privacy law and the public-interest privacy landscape deeply informed my work. I currently serve a research assistant with the CCD, where I spearhead the development of K-12 educational resources in partnership with law faculty and students. I’ve found UC Law SF to be an ideal place for second-career, nontraditional students. There is a tremendous diversity of life and career experience here, and I felt fully welcomed into the community, despite returning as a student at a different stage of life. I came to law school wanting to promote equity in California’s healthcare system. I am leaving with a sharper and more specific ambition: to build a policy career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy from technological intrusion. This is both an urgent and underserved area of law, and I want to be part of defining this landscape going forward. Whether as a practicing attorney or a policy advisor, I plan to work on these issues after law school. I strongly recommend UC Law SF and the Health Law Concentration. When I arrived in law school, I worried the concentration would be narrow and that my non-clinical background would be a disadvantage. The opposite was true. The health law faculty thinks about health expansively, encompassing social determinants of health, structural inequity, and emerging technologies alongside the regulatory mechanics of the industry. The faculty are accessible, intellectually generous, and genuinely invested in students’ development. I found my research vision here, and I deeply appreciate the concentration’s role in this. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the College’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
Every way Trump has changed Washington, DC, in his second term
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Iowa convenience store chain reaches national business milestone
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Wasabi Technologies to Acquire Seagate’s Lyve Cloud Business
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Unless you reboot every once in a while, your Mac will get kicked offline every 49 days
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Experts set 2030 nutrition science goals for resilient food systems
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