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Public Health searching for dog that bit child at Madison park
MADISON (WKOW) — Public Health Madison & Dane County (PHMDC) is searching for a dog that bit a child at Droster Park on Saturday.
How the Iran war’s unpopularity compares to Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam
An increasing volume of data suggests the Iran war has become about as unpopular as Iraq and Vietnam ever were — and it became so much more quickly.
Troy Jackson emerges as likely Senate pick for Maine Democrats
Former Maine lawmaker and logger Troy Jackson is set to become the state's Democratic Senate nominee after Graham Platner's exit.
Greg Sankey outlines SEC's priorities amid changing college sports landscape
Sankey did not make any sweeping pronouncements during his 50-minute address to open SEC Media Days on Monday, but his remarks made many of his stances clear.
SEC going alone over CFP, Save College Sports Act isn't leverage, it's reality
Like it or not, SEC going it alone idea is gaining steam. League commissioner Greg Sankey made that point at the SEC Media Days.
This Is Where A Year Of Health Care Costs Less Than A Month In The US
This American moved to Spain and now saves thousands in health care, enjoys a lower cost of living, made new friends, bought property, and lives a fulfilling life abroad
Yankees Birthday of the Day: Red Kleinow
Kleinow was among the earliest Highlanders backstops and witness to one of the game’s most famous pitches.
Commissioner Greg Sankey insists SEC breakaway threat is real as rules frustrations linger
Greg Sankey opened SEC football media days by talking about the Protect College Sports Act, NCAA frustrations, Playoff expansion and more.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Switch 2 modding scene makes new breakthrough, but Nintendo safe from piracy
A new breakthrough was recently made within the Switch 2 modding scene, but Nintendo can rest easy knowing that piracy still isn’t an issue at the moment. You may remember that with the original Nintendo Switch, piracy became a major problem pretty early on. Significant vulnerabilities were discovered less than a year after the console launch. Nintendo was unfortunately unable...
Andy Burnham: What to Expect from the UK’s New Prime Minister
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Why Britain is getting a new prime minister without a general election
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As his empty Gaza apology clearly demonstrates, he will not bring the radical change Labour really needs.
ESPN fantasy experts are low on Bills WRs in 2026
The Buffalo Bills have again made key moves to improve production within their wide receivers room.
Her Mom Needed A Male Co-Signer. She Built The Franchise To $22 Million
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Scientists have found an ancient sea worm with jaws made from a mysterious 'bio-metal' never encountered before, a discovery that could rewrite what we know about nature
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Where Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster is now after it was launched into space and caused amateur astronomer to panic
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The 'other' Madison athletic director oversees unprecedented success
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'Shrimad Bhagavatam' Leads Sagar Pictures Global Studio Push
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Spain's world champions head home to million-strong Madrid welcome
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AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 11:54 p.m. EDT
Shakira, Madonna and many Muppets take the World Cup stage, along with BTS and Bieber
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Arsenal planning short-term move for free agent John Stones following William Saliba's World Cup injury
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Madonna-Justin Bieber Tension Erupts Behind World Cup Halftime Show
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AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 4:22 p.m. EDT
BTS, Madonna and the Muppets take the World Cup stage
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Madonna and the Muppets take the World Cup stage
Madonna opened the World Cup halftime show with her 2000 dance-pop hit “Music,” joined by star Brazilian soccer players of yesteryear, Ronaldo and Ronaldinho. It started with an apparently pre-recorded
Madonna and the Muppets take the World Cup stage
Madonna opened the World Cup halftime show with her 2000 dance-pop hit “Music,” joined by star Brazilian soccer players of yesteryear, Ronaldo and Ronaldinho. It started with an apparently pre-recorded
Madonna and the Muppets take the World Cup stage
Madonna opened the World Cup halftime show with her 2000 dance-pop hit “Music,” joined by star Brazilian soccer players of yesteryear, Ronaldo and Ronaldinho.
Madonna and the Muppets take the World Cup stage
Madonna opened the World Cup halftime show with her 2000 dance-pop hit “Music,” joined by star Brazilian soccer players of yesteryear, Ronaldo and Ronaldinho.
Andy Biggs and David Schweikert offer competing visions for Republican Party in Arizona governor primary
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Watch a Mad Scientist YouTuber Make Lightning in a Bottle From Mercury and Neon
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Justice Department activates untested court for 'alien terrorist' deportations
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In 1970, Soviet scientists began drilling into the Kola Peninsula and eventually reached 12,262 metres — creating the deepest vertical borehole humans have ever made, yet barely scratching the surface of Earth’s crust
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N.Y. lawmakers react to Trump's election speech
“He didn't release anything that hasn't already been made available to the intelligence community and to members of the legislature," Morelle said.
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Leon Black walked out of an Epstein House committee interview. Here’s what we know
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Nintendo quietly shares a glimpse at a change the company made to its Joy-Con controller lineup for customers to consider moving forward.
Trump administration races to rebuild tariff wall knocked down by Supreme Court
The U.S. Treasury last year swelled with revenue from President Donald Trump’s double-digit taxes on imports from almost every country on earth. But the money dried up after the Supreme Court struck down the biggest and boldest of Trump’s tariffs in February. The question now is: Can the president’s trade team make good on its promise to replace the lost revenue?
Trump urges Darline Graham to run for full Senate term as funeral planned for her brother
President Donald Trump said Friday that Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, has his support to run for a full term to replace her brother in the U.S. Senate.
Wagner's New Business Model
Wagner's leftover fighters run a tramadol empire in Central African Republic, fueling gold profits, militia violence, and ties to Sudan's war.
Fact-checking Trump's address on China, the 2020 election and what documents show
President Donald Trump quoted years-old intelligence community documents, including some that had been declassified or partially redacted, without noting a distinction between what China may have planned versus what analysts say it did.
The Future of Sports Prep Is Here: Nebraska Robot Prepares National Archery Stage
A robot made by a Nebraska company is helping prepare the stage for some of the country’s top young archers.The Lincoln Sports Foundation is using a GPS-guided
Texas Tech’s story gets even slimier, plus niche college sports
Until Saturday is The Athletic's free college football newsletter.
Reclusive comedian Steven Wright, 70, resurfaces for extremely rare appearance as fans all say the same thing
The reclusive comedian, Steven Wright, made a rare appearance on Howie Mandel's podcast, Howie Mandel Does Stuff on Tuesday, July 14
Andy Burnham is declared leader of UK's Labour Party, pledges to restore hope
The former mayor of Greater Manchester was the only contender in the center-left party's leadership contest to replace departing Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who was forced out by a rebellion within his party.
Nickel Fingerprints Reveal What the Asteroid That Killed the Dinosaurs Was Made Of
The culprit may have been an unusually dry relic from the outer solar system.
Trump cites national security to stop offshore wind development. Here's what to know
President Donald Trump's administration has worked to stop offshore wind development on the grounds that it's a national security risk since late last year.
China warns of reciprocal countermeasures after U.S. shortens foreign journalist visas
The Trump administration announced Thursday it will drastically shorten visas for foreign journalists in the U.S. to 240 days, down from years, and cut those for Chinese journalists to only 90 days, raising concerns over press freedom in the United States and prompting China to warn of possible reciprocal countermeasures.
Oscar winner Octavia Spencer receiving George Eastman Award in Rochester
Spencer made sure to praise George Eastman and the impact he had on her during an event on Friday.
Apple, Google must stop profiting off AI nudify apps, San Francisco AG says
Official estimates Google and Apple likely made millions in nudify app fees.
MSG Entertainment Files Defamation Lawsuit Against Wired Over July 9 Article
Company alleges article contained false and misleading claims regarding customer data Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSG Entertainment) has filed a defamation lawsuit against Wired magazine, reporter Noah Shachtman, and related...
She Retired From Engineering at 58 and Turned Her Creative Hobby Into a Business. It’s Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars: ‘No Regrets.’
Anna Hudick's engineering experience serves her well as an entrepreneur.
Alabama students show significant gains in science proficiency; reading, math results mixed
By Andrea Tinker, Alabama Reflector Alabama students made significant improvements in science proficiency on this year’s Alabama Comprehensive Assessment Program (ACAP) standardized test, while the picture was somewhat more mixed on reading and math scores. According to data released by the Alabama State Department of Education on Tuesday, science proficiency went up for fourth, sixth […]
What to know about bad air caused by wildfires and how to protect yourself
Even if you don't see the pollution, it can be unhealthy to breathe.
Two Religions, One Purpose: Business Leaders on Faith at Work
Sumreen Ahmad and Paul Lambert, two friends of different faiths, discuss their journeys towards championing pluralism and religious inclusion at work.
WATCH LIVE: Mullin holds news conference on election security after Trump's address to the nation
10 songs to get hyped for the World Cup final
To get in the spirit for the 2026 World Cup final between Argentina and Spain, The Associated Press has made a themed playlist. The list includes Shakira and Burna Boy's
Lettuce at Taco Bell in 5 states confirmed as a source of diarrhea-causing parasite
Federal health officials have identified lettuce from Mexico served at Taco Bell locations across five U.S. states as a source of the widespread outbreak of diarrhea-causing parasite cyclospora.
Blanche meets with Epstein accusers after demand from Republican senator crucial to confirmation
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche met Thursday with accusers of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein following the demand by a Republican senator whose support is crucial to advancing his nomination to lead the Justice Department.
Here's what makes American elections so complicated and secure
One of the strongest security features of U.S. elections is the fact that they aren’t conducted at the federal level.