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Australian business sentiment crashes in March on worries about fallout from Iran war
Australian business confidence plunged last month by a magnitude only seen during financial crises as the Iran war gave rise to a global oil shock, a survey showed on Tuesday.
From curiosity to conservation: How citizen science is teaching children and adults to see, experience nature
It often starts with something small, such as a new bird in a branch, a vibrant butterfly in a yard, a colorful plant growing through a crack in the sidewalk, or as part of a lawn. Suddenly, you are engaged and can't help ...
20 years later: How Massachusetts health care reform changed access
Nearly everyone in Mass. has health care coverage — but many still can’t afford care.
Derek Dixon commits to Arizona
UNC will be looking for a new point guard for next season. Derek Dixon, who entered his name into the transfer portal last week, has committed to the University of Arizona and Tommy Lloyd. The freshman averaged 6.5 points per game and led the Tar Heels in assists after he wrestled the starting point guard […]
RAMageddon has come for Microsoft’s Surface Pro and Surface Laptop
Surface devices might have a harder time competing against Apple.
‘Don’t Let Ticks Stick’: Alexandria health officials want you to be on lookout for bloodsuckers
Alexandria Health Department officials encouraged residents to check for ticks, which can spread Lyme disease and alpha-gal syndrome if not quickly removed.
The Department of Justice’s investigation is the latest in Trump’s decades-long feud with the NFL
By targeting the NFL for allegedly forcing customers into expensive streaming options, Trump’s DOJ extends a long-running animosity
'We knew we had to act': Great Salt Lake gets $30M boost from business community
Three prominent families with Utah ties pledged a combined $30 million toward efforts to boost Great Salt Lake levels, as the lake faces impacts from a record-low snowpack.
Louisville proposing new sports arena near soccer stadium, per report
Louisville sports officials are reportedly engaged in an effort to build a new sports arena by 2028. The arena would be near Lynn Family Stadium.
Utah business leaders put up $30M in race to save the Great Salt Lake before the Olympics
Utah business leaders just pledged $30M to help save the Great Salt Lake before the 2034 Olympics.
College student reflects on mental health struggles and how her "school mom and school dad" changed her life
From curiosity to conservation: How citizen science is teaching children and adults to see, experience nature
It often starts with something small, such as a new bird in a branch, a vibrant butterfly in a yard, a colorful plant growing through a crack in the sidewalk, or as part of a lawn. Suddenly, you are engaged ...
Suspect allegedly steals 26 pounds of honey from Weld County business
The Weld County Sheriff’s Office is looking for a thief who allegedly stole 26 pounds of honey from a business over the weekend.
'We are outraged': Pueblo business issues statement after 2 hurt in shooting
A Pueblo business is sharing details about a shooting that took place Sunday night that reportedly injured two people.
A decade in, the Baton Rouge Health District plans its next 10 years
For the past decade, Baton Rouge’s largest health systems, hospitals and research institutions have been engaged in an exercise that may seem counterintuitive on its face. In an industry defined by competition—for patients, for employees and for research dollars—the city’s health care leaders are attempting to prove that collaboration can be just as powerful. The […]
‘Come From Away’: West Springfield production tells 9/11 story of kindness
The Tony and Grammy-Award winning production will be staged at the Majestic Theater April 16 through May 31.
New Rules May Allow Broader Picks for CDC Vaccine Panel
By HealthDay Staff HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, April 13, 2026 (HealthDay News) — The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) could soon have a new focus after officials changed the rules that determine who can serve on it. The updated rules were approved by Health Secretary Robert F.
"I couldn't protect it" Pete Hines says he left Microsoft-owned Bethesda because he didn't want to watch it be "damaged and broken apart and frankly mistreated, abused"
Former Bethesda head of publishing Pete Hines has spoken about the frustrations which led him to retire back in 2023.
State Farm sues Amazon after dehumidifier allegedly sparks fire
A federal agency deemed Amazon a "distributor" - now an insurer wants it to pay
Strikes on alleged drug boats kill 5, leave 1 survivor in eastern Pacific, US military says
The U.S. military says it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean | KMBZ
Strikes on alleged drug boats kill 5, leave 1 survivor in eastern Pacific, US military says
The U.S. military says it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean | 830 WCCO
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Laura Gersony on the SRP election and Turning Point's impact
Arizona Republic reporter Laura Gersony joins us to talk about the SRP election, and why it was a loss for Turning Point USA. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the President’s threat to end a civilization and Melania Trump's Epstein-focused press conference.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Stormont urged to delay workers' rights reforms by business leaders
The Good Jobs Bill would give workers a range of enhanced rights including an effective ban on zero hour contracts.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
Viktor Orbán’s defeat ‘a defining moment’ in Europe. What comes next?
Orbán acknowledged Sunday that he was too far behind to stage a comeback against Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new prime minister.
Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter
A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.
The transformative power of sports with Telemundo and FC Dallas
Players aged 5 – 12 took part in soccer clinics w/ FC Dallas coaches, giveaways & more!
Baseball great Phil Garner dies aged 76 after cancer battle
Phil Garner has passed away at the age of 76
Commissioner Bill Canda created septic business to evade taxes
Thanks to a miscommunication in March between the Custer County Sheriff’s Office and the 12th Judicial District Attorney’s Office in Alamosa, the majority of the Colorado Bureau of Investigation (CBI) inquiry into Custer County Commissioner Bill Canda for alleged sales tax fraud was made public. The
My grandma got a smartphone at 80. It changed her life.
After my grandmother became hooked on YouTube Shorts, I realized it was more than entertainment — it was a glimpse of the life she missed.
Samsung to fix Adaptive Clock glitch in One UI 8.5 update
Adaptive Clock has a glitch on One UI 8.5 devices, and Samsung is working on a fix. The problem has been acknowledged by a community moderator, who promised the addressal with the next Beta software update. It’s already a big day for Samsung users, thanks to One UI 8.5 rollouts. Whether it’s new Beta releases […]
“I stopped digging through folders”: How OmniSearch changed the way I find files on Windows 11
OmniSearch blends instant results, previews, and cleanup tools into one powerful search experience.
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn't regret taking it.
According to the National Institutes of Health, less than a fifth of American adults aged 20 to 69 who could benefit from wearing hearing aids have ever used them.
The Screen Time Maximalists Who Spend an Ungodly Amount of Time on Their Phones
As debates over social media addiction rage, people with extreme screen times tell WIRED they have no plans to cut back.
Country music star says UFOs chased her plane for hundreds of miles
She said the orbs followed her plane from Arkansas to Nashville.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
Christmas Vacation and Congress: 'We're all in misery' amid the ongoing DHS shutdown
Fox News' Chad Pergram discusses Congress' prolonged DHS shutdown and the risky tactics associated with it as political divisions threaten deeper government funding crises.
Pastors Scott Bottoms, Victor Marx win spots in Colorado GOP’s gubernatorial primary at party assembly
Two pastors from Colorado Springs qualified Saturday for the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot at the Colorado GOP’s state assembly in Pueblo in a party meeting that dragged late into the night. State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who is known as one of the legislature’s most conservative members, won top line on the June ballot, while missionary […]
Columbus Aviators coach, ex-NFL player Ted Ginn Jr. arrested, charged for DUI in Texas
The Aviators are set to play the Dallas Renegades on Sunday, with the team saying that offensive coordinator Todd Haley will step in for that game.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Postal Service, Under Pressure, Now Faces Trump’s Mail Ballot Order
President Trump’s executive order, which has been challenged as unconstitutional, would limit the Postal Service to sending only the ballots of voters deemed eligible.
Epic set to release Arc Raiders-like extraction shooter with Disney characters by the end of the year
Epic Games will allegedly release an Arc Raiders-like shooter later this year.
I changed my embarrassing Gmail username without losing anything, and you can too
Google now lets Gmail users switch to a new address while keeping the old one as an alias — here's how!
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Local man accused in sports ticket scam
Robert Cheevers, 57, was charged with larceny over $1,200 by single scheme.
College football's most experienced players in 2026: Penn State's Rocco Becht leads among QBs
As eligibility stretches careers, snap counts provide a clearer look at which players have truly logged the most time on the field
Sisters teen keeping drivers awake with caffeine lollipop business
A Sisters teen teamed up with a Portland businessman to run a caffeine lollipop business, with the goal of ensuring people don’t fall asleep at the wheel. Kale Gardner, the […]
I found the ‘memory cheat code’ for ChatGPT — and it fixed my worst problem with AI
One simple prompt stopped ChatGPT from “forgetting” everything mid-conversation — and it completely changed how I use it
Barcelona face major setback in race for teenage midfield sensation
According to SPORT, Barcelona are closely monitoring Kennet Eichhorn, a highly-rated 16-year-old currently developing at Hertha Berlin. The youngster has emerged as one of the most promising midfield...
'I Saw How It Was Getting Damaged': Ex-Bethesda Exec Goes to Town on Xbox's Mistreatment
"That shouldn't be a surprise to you"
Vance meets Pakistan PM as US-Iran peace talks begin
Pakistan has emerged as a key player in efforts to extend a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, hosting high-stakes talks involving Vice President JD Vance and senior advisers as both sides explore a path toward a more lasting agreement.
Altoona business owner accused of fraud
The owner and operator of Tipton Construction in Altoona was taken into custody Wednesday for allegedly committing a string of home improvement frauds. John Bailey Tipton II, 44, was arraigned Thursday by Magisterial District Judge Benjamin F. Jones on seven felony counts of making a false statement to induce agreement for home improvement services, five […]
Accusation of sexual assault threatens Swalwell governor bid
The Democrat running for governor categorically denied any misconduct involving congressional staffers. Then the San Francisco Chronicle published an article quoting an alleged victim.
Candidates for California governor call on Swalwell to drop out after allegations of sexual assault
The Democratic congressmember came under pressure after the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a former staffer alleged the congressmember sexually assaulted her.
The Latest Foldable iPhone Rumors: What's Changed and What We Know Now
Rumors about Apple's first foldable iPhone are picking up now that the device has entered a new testing stage that precedes mass production. If you've been having trouble keeping up with what's new, we've recapped the latest iPhone Fold rumors that have come out over the last few weeks. Naming One rumor claims Apple will call its foldable iPhone the "iPhone Ultra," which doesn't seem out of the question.
Richard Roeper joins NBC Chicago as entertainment & culture contributor
Richard Roeper marked his first day on the job with NBC Chicago as our new entertainment & culture contributor, talking with Alex Maragos about how the movie industry has changed and what to see at theaters and on streaming channels this weekend.
Laredo proclaims April Autism Awareness Month, underscores challenges
Laredo proclaimed Autism Awareness and Acceptance Month as officials, families and community members urged others to move beyond awareness and address barriers.
Reform UK local election candidate was twice disciplined by Tories over ‘racist comments’
Tories disowned Derek Bullock in 2023 after he allegedly used a racial slur to called for people of Pakistani heritage to be shot
From politics to punches: Biden Jr challenges Trump sons to cage fight
US politics already feels like a contact sport, but one of Washington's most bitter political feuds may literally be headed to the mat after former president Joe Biden's son challenged
Samsung says it has a One UI 8.5 device plan for ‘later’
Samsung has announced that the company will release a One UI 8.5 device plan once the software is ready for rollout. However, there are a couple of things you should know about this new statement. This statement comes after a wide user-based criticism of Samsung’s new feature limitation to the Galaxy S26 series. Users alleged that the company […]
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations
NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump's administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into
Why the World’s Biggest TikTok Star’s $975 Million Business Deal is Suddenly Falling Apart
Khaby Lame’s landmark merger drew in traders and creator economy optimists alike, but the stock has since plunged more than 90 percent and major brokerages are restricting trading.
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
The Trump administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program
This Women’s Healthcare Stock Is Up 15% on Reports of a Takeover In the Works
Organon shares surged Friday following reports India’s Sun Pharmaceutical made a bid for the women's healthcare company.
Inflation surged in March as Iran war's energy impact hit consumers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest consumer price index data which showed that CPI inflation surged in March as the Iran war's imapct took a toll on consumer prices.
Scientists say we’ve been treating Alzheimer’s all wrong
Alzheimer’s isn’t just one problem—it’s a tangled mix of biology, aging, and overall health. That’s why drugs targeting a single factor have fallen short, even as new treatments show modest benefits. Scientists are now pushing toward multi-pronged strategies, from gene editing to brain-cell rejuvenation and gut health interventions. The goal: stop treating Alzheimer’s as one disease and start tackling it as a complex system.
Trump administration admits error in accusations about N.Y. health care fraud
President Donald Trump’s administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program.
Scheffler, Rose to chase McIlroy with early Masters starts
Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler and England's Justin Rose were set for early starts chasing co-leaders Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns as Friday's second round of the Masters began at Augusta National.Burns, the 54-hole leader at last year's US Open, managed his lowest round in 13 at Augusta National despite the firm greens.
Horne misses Toulon clash through injury
Glasgow Warriors head coach Franco Smith has made two changes for Saturday's Champions Cup quarter-final clash against RC Toulon. An unchanged front-row sees Patrick Schickerling continue at loose-head alongside Gregor Hiddleston and Zander Fagerson up front.
Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump's administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program, a glaring mistake that undercuts a federal campaign to tackle waste, mostly in Democratic-led states.
Peru's Dysfunctional Politics Are an Economic Time Bomb
Peru has gone through three presidents since October, yet markets have largely yawned: Country risk has edged up only marginally, credit default swaps remain well below their five-year average and the currency has even gained against the dollar.
The week that supercharged MAGA media feuds over the Iran war
The right-wing media ecosystem that has long served as a useful bullhorn for President Donald Trump unraveled into disarray this week, as deepening fears over his management of the war — and fragile ceasefire — with Iran spilled into public infighting among some of his most prominent allies.
Make Your MacBook Battery Last Longer With This Setting
If you own a MacBook and work from home, it's easy to have your laptop plugged in for hours on end without thinking about the long-term battery life implications. Fortunately, Apple recently added a setting that lets you cap how high your Mac's battery charges, and if you own an iPhone that was released in the last few years, you may already be familiar with it.
Supreme Court blocks candidate after alleged GOP infiltration scheme exposed
The Supreme Court rejected a progressive candidate's bid to enter Ohio's Republican primary after he allegedly misrepresented party affiliation.
Op-ed: You don’t have to major in business because your dad told you to
I’m a second-year student at Northeastern, and I’ve already changed my major four times — twice last semester. I know that sounds stressful, kind of scary and like I have no idea what I want to do with my life. But currently, my major is combined political science and journalism, and despite the changes I...
Marathon Reportedly Had a Budget of Over $200 Million — and While the Pressure Is on Bungie to Gain More Players, It Is Not Facing an Imminent, Concord-Style Shutdown
A new report has claimed Marathon’s budget is over $200 million, and while player numbers have fallen significantly since launch, Bungie’s extraction shooter is allegedly not facing an imminent shutdown.
BREAKING: Belmont forward Sam Orme commits to Nebraska
Nebraska picked up its first portal addition in former Belmont forward Sam Orme, per On3. Orme spent the last two seasons with the Bruins, where he averaged 11.2 points per
Natasha Lyonne speaks out after reportedly being removed from Delta flight
Natasha Lyonne was allegedly escorted off a plane hours after attending the "Euphoria" season 3 premiere.
The lifesaving catch that changed everything
Javon Brumsey's lifesaving catch saw him take on heart surgery and recover with the ECU Health Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehab program.
UNC chancellors sidestep political questions at forum on challenges facing higher education
At a forum on challenges facing higher education, UNC chancellors mostly dodged pointed questions about budgets and Trump.
Cameron Brink Applauds Lauren Betts’ Mental Health Advocacy After NCAA Title Win
Before Lauren Betts became a national champion with the UCLA women’s basketball team, the superstar center was a freshman serving in a backup role behind All-Americans Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen at Stanford. Betts averaged 5.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and…
Comptroller: State workforce overtime surged 23%, driven by DOCCS, prison strike
State workforce overtime costs increased by $1.6 billion in 2025, according to a report released by state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli said.
Brand new musical 'Last Night on Rue Bayou' opens soon in New Orleans
Discover the vibrant music and captivating stories of "Last Night on Rue Bayou" and "Jagged Little Pill" in the upcoming productions in the area. Engaging performances and immersive experiences await!
Every way Trump has changed Washington, DC, in his second term
Trump is reshaping Washington, DC, with a $400 million White House ballroom, federal building banners, and new monument proposals.
FBI Extracts Suspect’s Deleted Signal Messages Saved in iPhone Notification Database
The case was the first time authorities charged people for alleged “Antifa” activities after President Trump designated the umbrella term a terrorist organization.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Is Up 7.2% After DOJ Antitrust Settlement Eases Breakup Fears – Has The Bull Case Changed?
In recent days, Live Nation Entertainment reached a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over an antitrust lawsuit, agreeing to divest 13 exclusive booking agreements and cap ticketing service fees at its owned amphitheaters. This resolution has eased concerns about a potential structural breakup, prompting analysts to highlight how reduced legal uncertainty may support the company’s operational plans and growth ambitions. We’ll now examine how the DOJ settlement, which removes...
Spotify Introduces New Video Controls for Listeners
Spotify has always been about putting listeners in the driver’s seat. Today, people don’t just want more ways to spend their time; they want that time to be well spent. That’s why, from Taste Profile to Prompted Playlist, and the expansion of managed accounts to Smart Filters, we’re giving users more control over their listening...
Democrats push to pass Iran war powers resolution despite House recess, accusing Trump of ‘unhinged behavior’
Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democrat leader, will use pro forma session to try to pass measure requiring president to withdraw US forces from Middle East
Judges keep knocking down weak DC gun cases brought by Jeanine Pirro’s office
The Trump White House touted its surge of National Guard members to Washington, DC, last summer as the way to put more dangerous perpetrators in the nation’s capital behind bars. But in nearly a dozen criminal cases since the surge began, people who were found to be carrying weapons and charged in federal court have walked free.
NBA champion Thunder clinch Western Conference top seed
The Oklahoma City Thunder secured the Western Conference top seed and best record in the NBA with a 128-110 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday.Oklahoma City snagged the West's top seed for the third year running, and with the best overall record they'll have home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Zeeland restaurant sees business boost after Sunday alcohol sales allowed
For decades, Zeeland prohibited alcohol sales on Sundays. That changed a few months ago, and one business, The Gritzmaker Social House, said the new ordinance is paying off.
Democrats fighting for Iowa Senate seat tussle over Chuck Schumer and super PACs
The primary fight between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls has emerged as a key race to watch, with Republicans ready to spend to defend the seat this fall.
News | Plans for 1.6 million square foot Manchester airport-based science and innovation campus lodged
MIX MANCHESTER focuses on a 60-acre site