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Framework’s New Ultra-Repairable 'Pro' Laptop Lets You Ditch Windows Entirely
The Framework Laptop 13 Pro comes with better battery life, a better chip, and—finally—a touchscreen.
Beyond DTC: Finding the Best Business Model for Your Brand with Molly Sims and Randy Goldberg
The best brands aren’t choosing between online and in person retail—they’re doing both, intentionally. Bombas co-founder Randy Goldberg and YSE Beauty founder Molly Sims break down how to expand your model without diluting your brand.
Black Gunk Found in Man's Lungs Exposes an Even Darker Side of Wildfire Smoke
The strange injury was caused by hours of inhaling thick smoke, his doctors say.
Reps. Smucker and Davids Introduce Bipartisan ‘Accountable Produce is Medicine Act’
WASHINGTON — Representatives Lloyd Smucker (PA-11) and Sharice Davids (KS-03) introduced the bipartisan Accountable Produce is Medicine Act (H.R. 8355), legislation aimed at modernizing the U.S. health care system by incorporating proven nutrition-based interventions to prevent and manage chronic disease.
Paradigm Health Launches SPIRE to Accelerate Late-Phase Clinical Evidence Generation
/PRNewswire/ -- Paradigm Health today announced SPIRE — Scalable Platform for Integrated Research & Evidence — a new model for post-approval and late-stage...
The Business Model Podcast: From Idea to Business
Anybody can have a good idea. It’s taking the next step that gives people more trouble. On this Founder Group Chat, we have three founders who have turned
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Students pitch business ideas at ‘Shark Bite’ competition
Caddo Kiowa Technology Center wraps up first-year entrepreneurship program modeled after Shark Tank.
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Stanislaus health officials watchful as serious skin rash cases rise in California
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NASA Shut Down Voyager 1 Science Instrument After Unexpected Power Drop
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City of Tampa to Launch Microgrant Program for Small Businesses, Entrepreneurs
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New Microsoft Pro and Surface Laptop release delay rumoured
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JRC Summer School non-animal approaches in science
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iPhone 18 coming later than usual with new cost-cutting measures, per leaker
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Moss for ProMarket: How the Professionalization of College Sports Changed Who Wins
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iOS 27 Rumored to Drop Support for These iPhone Models
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iPhone 18 Pro Launching in September With These 10 New Features
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Teaching Legislative Politics Through a Game: Active Learning, Assignment Co-creation, and Assessment Across Modalities -
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Apple plans to release iPad mini and MacBook Pro models with OLED displays this year, according to industry sources who spoke to South Korea's ETNews. The current iPad mini and MacBook Pro models have LCD displays with either LED or mini-LED backlighting. The move to OLED technology would result in improved image quality, thanks to richer colors and higher contrast ratio with true blacks. Samsung will supply the OLED displays for both devices, the report said.
Amazon will ditch Android on ‘all’ future Fire TV Sticks as latest model runs Vega OS
Amazon this week launched its newest Fire TV Stick and, along with it, its second device powered by Vega OS....
Google's AI Mode can now help you find products in stock nearby
Although you can already track hotel prices at the city level, the new update lets you do so for a specific hotel that you're interested in.
TCL Says Screw All Those New RGB TVs, Even Its Own
TCL now has its own RGB TV that it explicitly says offers less value than its new 'super quantum dot' mini LED screens.
Fed Beige Book Points to Uncertainty and Increased Business Costs - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
by Raymond J. Keating – The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book take on the economy pointed to sluggishness and uncertainty, with the Iran war naturally coming into the equation. Specifically, it was reported, “Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts […]
Galaxy S27 may deliver insanely fast storage speed with UFS 5.0
Samsung is rumored to equip at least some models of the Galaxy S27 series next year with the faster UFS 5.0 standard storage chips.
Fortnite Loses Two Game Modes, But 'Save The World' Goes Free On Xbox & Beyond
Pro Vocals and Pro Drums have also joined Fortnite Festival
The 3 forces quietly dismantling the business model that made enterprise software fabulously profitable
Roundtables with senior business leaders in San Francisco and New York revealed a consensus: AI isn't just threatening SaaS, but the entire industry.
NSWCPD Applies AI and Machine Learning to Predictive Machinery Health
In a soundproof chamber at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Philadelphia Division (NSWCPD), a steel-gray air compressor hums as engineers test an experimental machine learning model designed to detect early signs of failure through vibration analysis. The effort, part of NSWCPD’s growing portfolio of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) projects, shows early promise for potential future Navy use.
Washington’s Scramble to Get Mythos, Anthropic’s Powerful New Model
Federal agencies have requested access to Claude Mythos Preview, which Anthropic says can rapidly identify — and potentially create — new cyberthreats.
Slay the Spire 2 gets its first major update, buffing the Regent, bringing sweeping balance changes, and adding a powerful new card
Slay the Spire 2 has gotten its first major update, which includes a host of balance changes, art updates, a phobia mode, and more.
iPhone 18 Pro's Four Rumored Colors Revealed, Including 'Dark Cherry'
A source said to be familiar with Apple's supply chain today revealed the color options Apple is planning for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the upcoming foldable iPhone. Image via Macworld. The information comes from Macworld, which says the signature new color for this year's Pro models will be Dark Cherry, a deep wine-like red. While other sources had previously reported on a "Dark Red" option, the hue is said to be considerably closer to wine than a brighter red.
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
Ex-Goldman Analyst Jeff Currie Is Getting Into the Oil Business
Jeff Currie, the one-time Goldman Sachs Group Inc. commodities strategist known for shaping investor views on energy markets, has co-founded an oil and gas company.
Fans, businesses prepare for Sabres’ return to playoffs
BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) — Buffalo is officially in playoff mode. The Sabres will make their return to the postseason this Sunday at KeyBank Center, and the city is buzzing — and that inclu…
CFTC Chairman Says AI Helps Agency Run More Like a Business
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is using artificial intelligence to boost efficiency, CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig told a congressional
Xanax XR recalled after discovery that tablets may fail to release medication properly
A batch of Xanax XR has been recalled nationwide after the manufacturer found the drug may not release properly in the body. The FDA classified the issue as moderate risk.
2026 NFL Draft final combined big board: Buckeyes defender is No. 1, with Fernando Mendoza right behind him and Rueben Bain Jr. top-5
OpenAI launches AI model GPT-Rosalind for life sciences research
OpenAI on Thursday introduced an artificial intelligence model touting increased biology knowledge and scientific research capabilities, as the startup deepens its push into the life sciences field.