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Buttigieg rallies for Montana election initiative, stays mum on political plans
During an hour-long speech in a packed Mother Lode Theatre, Pete Buttigieg made a rousing plea to ban corporate money from Montana politics while repeatedly sidestepping talk of a 2028 presidential run. The 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former U.S. transportation secretary drew cheers from the audience of 1,200 in Butte as he suggested that special interests and corporate spending in campaigns had drowned out the concerns of average voters.
Swiss Re warns: even quiet hurricane seasons can roar
P&C CEO says the 2026 forecast looks calm — but history has a habit of humbling those who trust the averages
Sabres-Canadiens playoff series to be decided with Game 7 at Buffalo on Monday
Montreal and Buffalo are the two youngest teams by average age still in contention, and both relative recent playoff newcomers.
Here's How Much A 2021 Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio Has Depreciated In 5 Years
The average used price of a 2021 Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio sits between $40,000 and $50,000 today, but low production means great deals are rare.
Dragon Nears Launch as Crew Works Biomedical Science and Spacewalk Preps
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, with a cargo-packed Dragon spacecraft atop, stands ready to launch to the International Space Station at 6:05 p.m. EDT today, weather permitting, from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.
Live Coverage: SpaceX makes another attempt to launch space station cargo mission
Liftoff of the resupply mission, atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. EDT (2205 UTC). The Cargo Dragon is loaded with 6,500 pounds of science and supplies for the space station.
The 13 highest-paying jobs in the US
New data showed which US jobs pay well on average. Many healthcare jobs, such as those of various surgeons, are high-paying.
NFIB small business optimism index barely budges in April; Iowa director cites inflation drag
The National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index edged up 0.1 points in April to 95.9, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month, according to the NFIB’s monthly survey released Friday, May 15. The NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 4 points from March to 88, though it remains well […]
Louisiana casino revenue growing faster than national average, thanks to expansions
Thanks to a series of upgrades that moved some aging riverboat casinos onto land, a $435 million transformation of Caesars New Orleans and a glitzy new casino in Bossier City, Louisiana’s state regulated gambling halls saw their revenues in 2025 grow well above the national average.
When screen time crosses a line: Social media’s toll on mental health
Phones are an important part of everyday life for most people. From ordering food, online shopping and connecting with others, the average American spends more than five hours on their phone each day. That’s approximately 1,825 hours per year – the equivalent of two and a half months. Social media use takes up more than […]
Chartbook 449: Voldemort on Threadneedle street. The Bank of England and the "haunted house" of English politics.
Imagine the scene: In some Harry Potter version of 21st-century London, a group of deathless UK Treasury officials gathered from across the last century huddle over warm pints and glasses of Chardonnay. Around the table there are officials from the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1970s, 2022 and today. Inevitably, in May 2026, the subject of conversation is the disintegration of the current Labour government. Despite its huge majority in parliament, it has been reduced to tatters by catastrophic local election result. These exposed the fact that rather than having a government with a clear popular majority, the UK is like most other modern societies divided into 5 segments each of which commands between 26 and 16 percent of the vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the leadership at Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street - where the Prime Minister and the Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) work - seem paralyzed. They are caught between mounting discontent over unfairness and the cost of living, and tough fiscal strictures that push them into making unpopular spending decisions. In the London pub, the Treasury officials from across the ages, can barely hide their satisfaction at the latest display of democratic politics caught in the vice-grip of financial logic. “Remember the mur d’argent and the banker’s ramp?” “Just like yesterday!” There are smirks around the table. Then the representative of 2026 pipes up: “One thing you have to say about the current lot (referring to the latest hapless Labour government), you don’t have to teach them about the bond market!” There is a murmur of ascent from the Treasury Mandarins. The trauma of the fiscal crisis of September-October 2022 sits deep. Back then, in the final stages of Tory decay, a ‘mini budget’ that challenged fiscal orthodoxy led to a brief but fierce panic in one of the oldest government bond markets in the world (aka gilt market). Now all you have to do is to mention the “bond market” to hush debate. [ Paul Mason@paulmasonnews In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/ 3:57 PM · May 12, 2026 · 466K Views 224 Replies · 674 Reposts · 3.93K Likes ](https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2054229532404519082?s=20) “And the funny thing is”, the young man in the huddle continues, “they don’t even want to talk about … ”. There is a sudden hush. Significant looks are exchanged around the table. About? One of the senior figures puts down his glass with a decisive “clink”. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has entered their thoughts. Meanwhile, a few miles away in a grubby pub in Bloomsbury, two conspirators from the camp of Critical Macrofinance huddle over cans of low-alcohol IPA. They look at each other and blurt out loud: “The Bank!” “Everyone in the bloody Labour party is talking about the bond market. But why aren’t they even mentioning … the Bank of England!?” “Why is no one talking about Voldemort?” In Paul Mason’s blogpost, after much chest-thumping about basic fiscal logic, the basic point about the Bank of England is buried in the fine print at #3 in his list of suggestions as to what a radical Labour government might actually be able to do! [ Conflict & Democracy Down with the bond market! Down with gravity! It may seem unfair to focus on Labour MP Paula Barker for her off-the-cuff assertion that the bond market would have to “fall in line” with Andy Burnham, should he replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. But Burnham himself told the New Statesman that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets… Read more 2 days ago · 100 likes · 3 comments · Paul Mason ](https://htsf.substack.com/p/down-with-the-bond-market-down-with?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Back in Bloomsbury they shake their heads and ask: “Didn’t we learn anything from the Eurozone crisis?” Meanwhile, as if summoned to the conversation by some higher force, the “pink pages” announce: “The days of ultra-cheap government borrowing have come to an end” and Martin “Whizzard” Wolf publishes the graph of the season Look at the UK in 2026, perilously positioned on the upper edge of the pack. No wonder no one in London needs any lessons about the “bond market”. But, look again. Imagine how they feel in Rome. What is London’s nightmare in 2026? The nightmare is that you end up like Italy in the early 2010s during the Eurozone crisis. Once comfortably situated in the middle of the pack, watching with horror as your ten-year yields explode to 7 percent and “spreads” become a national nightmare. One of the largest economies in Europe, a founding member of the euro, stigmatized. But the message of the Italian experience is ambiguous. After all, the stigma didn’t last. In 2026, Italy borrows at rates lower not only than the UK but the US. The US, which, as everyone knows, enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of being the issuer of reserve, safe asets. What kind of magic is this? How did Italy, in the space of fifteen years, go from being good, to bad and back again? Which brings us back to our dissident friends in their Bloombury boozer and their memories of the Eurozone crisis. Italy never was Britain - with its ongoing fiscal deficits. Without interest payments, on primary balance, from 2000 to 2020 Italy ran a tight fiscal ship. Even in 2008 it barely went into deficit and when it was being put on the rack in the early 20210s its primary surplus matched that of austere Germany. So, what happened? How did it end up stigmatized? Of course Italian politics didn’t help. Berlusconi was at the helm and he had legal issues. But amongst friends in the Bloomsbury pub, Berlusconi is a sideshow, the name we whisper to each other is “Trichet”. From 2004 to 2011 the ECB was headed by Jean-Claude Trichet, ex of the French Treasury, more German than the Germans. After 2009 as the news of the Greek fiscal disaster broke, the European bond markets wento into panic mode and Trichet began a brutal game of cat and mouse. Between 2009 and 2011, Trichet intervened in the bond market to help, only when he thought he had compliance with austerity. When he thought they were uncooperative, he withdrew. In the summer of 2011, he even made direct suggestions to his Italian counterparts in Rome, as to how Italy should be governed. It was this cat and mouse game that drove the bond markets crazy and exposed Italy to a violent squeeze. When Mario Draghi took over the ECB at the end of 2011 and declared “whatever it takes”, the pressure on Italy, gradually eased. It is that starring role that has made Draghi into the towering figure in European politics that he remains today. So now you see why voices in London hush when it comes to the Bank of England. “The bond market” isn’t an irresistible objective force like the weather or an avalanche. It can appear like that. But that depends on the way it is being handled, or not handled by the central bank. Which is why the silence about the Bank of England in London right now is so significant. If you think this all sounds a bit fishy, coming from a left-liberal Keynesian like myself, well, let me introduce you to Robin Brooks, who, to put it mildly, plays on a different quidditch team to me. Here, from the position of a fiscal hawk is Robin’s celebratory account of the Bank of England’s role since 2022; In October 2022, at the height of the bond market blow-up in the UK, something incredible happened. Governor Andrew Bailey told British pension funds the Bank of England would end its support program for the country’s fragile gilt market, drawing a line under how much help the central bank was willing to give to exposed pension funds and - implicitly - the government. By the end of that week, Kwasi Kwarteng - the finance minister - had resigned. Prime Minister Liz Truss would soon follow. This episode is so incredible because it contrasts with what happened in the Euro zone earlier that year. Bond markets in Spain and Italy were under pressure amid high inflation and rising interest rates. In the middle of this, Mario Draghi - Italy’s Prime Minister - resigned, compounding pressure on bond markets of high-debt countries on the Euro periphery. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB caved. It bought Italian and Spanish government bonds in an effort to cap yields and introduced a new tool that signaled to markets it might do such caps more frequently going forward. Faced with pressure on bond markets, the ECB capitulated to political pressure from high-debt countries like Italy and Spain. The Bank of England stood its ground and toppled the Truss government. This kind of thing has long-lasting consequences. It means markets price a higher probability of yield caps in the Euro zone, which keeps Italian and Spanish yields artificially low, while markets feel free to push up UK yields without fear of central bank intervention. As I flagged in yesterday’s post, this means you really can’t compare UK yields to those of other high-debt countries. The UK looks worse, but only because its central bank isn’t interfering with markets. There’s more to this than just that 2022 episode. The Bank of England has also been much more aggressive in its quantitative tightening (QT) than other central banks. If one motivation for quantitative easing (QE) is to lower bond yields - especially longer-dated ones - then it stands to reason QT pushes yields up. The left chart above shows a four-quarter moving average of UK government debt issuance (black line) in percent of GDP and which sectors absorb this issuance, including the Bank of England (blue bars). The right chart above compares the Bank of England’s accumulation or run-off of government bonds (blue line) with that of other central banks, where this blue line is the same as the blue bars in the left chart. The Bank of England was quicker and more aggressive than other central banks in downsizing its bond holdings, so UK yields will have risen more than elsewhere also for this reason, not just because of Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks in October 2022. Back in October 2025, after a conversation in New York with friends in British politics, my sense of dysphoria was such that I raised the issue of the Bank of England openly in the FT Since 2008, the UK has slid into a deep economic and political predicament. Growth has stagnated to a degree far worse even than in the 1970s. The Tory leadership’s wager on the Brexit referendum spectacularly backfired, leaving the UK isolated from Europe and at the mercy of its special relationship with the US, many of whose political class regard the UK as a basket case. After years of austerity, the Labour party lurched to the left and then back to the centre. The Tory party has been eclipsed by the populist nationalism of Reform. Any British government should be worrying first and foremost about how to restart growth. Instead, Keir Starmer is beset by shades of the gilt market panic triggered by the Liz Truss government in 2022. The debt level is higher than in recent years, but there is no cause for panic. UK debt is at far from critical levels and of long duration. Whether you want to “take back control” or launch progressive economic policy, a democracy dogged by fear of bond market vigilantes is unhealthy. In a country that is a monetary sovereign, this climate points to one thing: a disconnect between the government and the central bank. Since 1997, the independence of the Bank of England has become a sacred cow. But independence is what you make of it. And in the wake of the gilt market crisis of September 2022, relations between the Bank of England and the UK government need a reset. In normal times, there is no doubt that an inflation-targeting independent central bank can serve a country well. But since 2008, the UK and other advanced economies have not had the luxury of such simple problems. To their credit, central bankers around the world have not stood on orthodoxy. After 2008, the US Federal Reserve rescued the global banking system and, through quantitative easing, it stabilised the Treasury market in the face of huge deficits. In Europe, things were trickier. Both the Bank of England under Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank played cat and mouse with national governments. This was a high stakes wager that between 2010 and 2012 escalated bond market tension and triggered a disastrous turn to austerity. Shaken by the impact of those shocks, their successors, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi adopted a more protective stance (assuming you were not the government of Greece). Recall that Draghi’s legendary slogan, “Whatever it takes”, was uttered to face down the City of London’s bond vigilantes. In 2015, Draghi launched QE — financial repression by another name. In 2016, Carney used the authority of the Bank of England to stabilise markets following the vote for Brexit, an exemplary demonstration of how central banks can underpin democratic choice, even when those choices are wrong headed. All these were independent central bankers steeped in the best practice of the 1990s, who recognised that historic crises demanded radical action. It was the price surge of 2021-2023 that poisoned the atmosphere. Though the shock came mainly from the supply side, central banks ended up in the dock. Nowhere more so than in the UK. The Bank of England reacted with aggressive normalisation. Faced with a cost of living crisis, the governor called for workers to accept real wage cuts. In early 2022, as gas prices were at record levels and Russia’s army was poised to invade Ukraine, the Bank adopted a stringent programme of quantitative tightening, elevating interest rates. When the Truss government got itself in trouble, the Bank took almost a week to come to the rescue. Rather than enacting a charade of normality, it is time to recognise that in 2025 the UK faces a period of historic transition. To meet this challenge, what is needed is a new concordat with the Bank. This should not ignore inflationary pressures or the long-run trajectory of debt, but should affirm the priority of reviving investment-led growth. One could follow Donald Trump in demanding interest rate cuts. The Bank could shadow the ECB in its commitment to capping Eurozone yields. But the top priority should be to lay the ghost of September 2022. The Bank’s slowing of QT last month was a concession. An immediate and complete end would send the right signal. Such a concordat will not by itself restore sanity to politics, solve the housing problem or rebuild the NHS. But it would help to lift the fear of bond market crisis, which is paralysing the effort by democratic politicians to answer the fundamental questions facing the nation. Now, that call for a new concordat between government and Bank of Englands seems more urgent than ever. The problem is that in October 2025, Starmer still had some authority. Today the government is in tatters. And when you are the “under the harrow” - to echo a phrase of Montagu Norman’s from the 1920s - it is the worst possible time to consider institutional change. To make general arguments at a time of crisis can only seem like special pleading rather than a general argument for long-term change. The same, unfortunately, is also true for the other basic institutional reform that Britain urgently needs i.e. the abolition of the out-dated first past the post electoral system and its replacement by a moderated form of proportional representation. And thirdly - whilst we are saying the quiet parts out loud - Britain needs to reopen the question of EU membership. What the local election results of 2026 show is that this remains a key issue. And what they also show is that there is a clear majority that would favor a return. Until these basic features of Britain’s political economy are addressed the country will carry on its politics as though in a haunted house, governed by governments that lack actual majorities, conjuring up false constraints whilst ignoring the real ones. This one is for DG and MI. I love writing the newsletter. If you enjoy it too and fancy buying me a coffee once a month, you know what to do. Click below! Subscribe
University and business leaders weigh a college degree’s value
“On average, after 10 years, the median UCI student is making about $106,000 a year with very little debt. Most of them, within a few years, are earning more than their parents.” UC Irvine Chancellor Howard Gillman
Kohli hits unbeaten century as RCB move top
Virat Kohli hit a brilliant unbeaten 105 as Royal Challengers Bengaluru beat Kolkata Knight Riders by six wickets to move top of the Indian Premier League table. Opening the batting, the 37-year-old struck 11 fours and three sixes in his 60-ball innings as RCB chased down their target of 193 with five balls to spare. Kohli, who was dismissed for ducks in his two previous innings but is still averaging over 50 for the fourth consecutive year, lost opening partner Jacob Bethell for 15 when he was caught and bowled by Kartik Tyagi.
You should probably eat more fiber. Here's why — and how to do it
The average person eats 10-15 grams of fiber per day, according to the USDA. The problem? That’s WAY under the recommended daily amount. Fiber – a type of carb that our bodies are unable to digest – is prevalent in foods like fruits, veggies, whole grains, and beans. And it’s key for everything from feelings of fullness, to gut health, to good poop. That’s why a lot of people online are “fibermaxxing”: trying to meet or exceed the daily recommendation of fiber, in hopes it’ll improve their health. But how should YOU add fiber to your diet… and are the fibermaxxers overdoing it? Gastroenterologist Berkeley Limketkai is here to help parse the science on how little fiber is too little, how much fiber is too much – and, like Goldilocks, how we can figure out the amount that’s just right.Interested in more food and dietary science? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
Stephen A. Smith Predicts LeBron James Could 'Average 20 Assists' With One Free Agent Move
Following a sweep in the 2026 NBA playoffs, the four-time MVP LeBron James faces a massive decision.
Small business owners 'increasingly pessimistic,' squeezed by higher costs, labor concerns
Small business optimism was flat last month, with an index that measures its level stuck below its long-term average for the second month in a row, the NFIB showed.
Small business owners 'increasingly pessimistic,' squeezed by higher costs, labor concerns
Small business optimism was flat last month, with an index that measures its level stuck below its long-term average for the second month in a row, the NFIB showed.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Challenged by Inflation
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index inched up 0.1 points to 95.9, remaining below the index's historical average for a second straight month.
Crew Relaxes Before Busy Week of Science, Dragon Arrival, and Spacewalk Preps
The next cargo mission to resupply the International Space Station, SpaceX CRS-34, is slated for launch at 7:16 p.m. on Tuesday, May 12, from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, weather pending.
PNB costume shop brings designs to life with couture-like detail
The average costume at Pacific Northwest Ballet takes 100 hours to make. We get a special peek behind the scenes in the costume shop to see the makers' magic.
THE WEEKEND'S RESULTS: PRIMAVERA WOMEN IN THE FINAL
AC Milan’s Youth Sector weekend is still awaiting its final result, with tonight - Monday 11 May - set to bring everything to a close. Kick-off at 18:00 CEST sees the Women's Primavera side face Sas...
The missing cybersecurity leader in small business
With the average cyberattack costing SMBs over $250,000, Georgianna Shea and Cason Smith argue that virtual and fractional CISOs are no longer optional. Discover why federal support for high-level security leadership is critical to protecting the backbone of the American economy.
Guardians Drop Game 2 to the Twins 2-1
That was a really tough loss for the Guardians. They had so many opportunities to win that game and they just could not do it. I look back at the bottom of the 10th, Chase DeLauter had a lineout with an expected batting average of .520. Then Daniel Schneeman lined out with an expected batting […]
Brain scans reveal a shocking difference between psychopaths and other people
Scientists have uncovered a striking brain difference linked to psychopathy: people with psychopathic traits were found to have a striatum — a brain region tied to reward, motivation, and decision-making — that was about 10% larger on average than those without such traits. Using MRI scans and psychological assessments on 120 participants, researchers connected this enlarged brain region to thrill-seeking, impulsive behavior, and a stronger drive for stimulation.
Edwin Arroyo homers twice | Reds prospect batting .331 at Louisville
Reds infield prospect Edwin Arroyo hit his sixth and seventh home runs of the season and raised his batting average to .331 for Triple-A Louisville.
Small Business Optimism Is at Record Highs, So Why Are Millions of Entrepreneurs Still Getting Denied Funding?
CredFin, Inc. Identifies the Hidden Credit Profile Problems Blocking American Business Owners from a potential $44.8 Billion in Available SBA CapitalMIAMI, May 07, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The U.S. Small Business Administration guaranteed a record $44.8 billion in small business loans in fiscal year 2025, approving an average of 1,600 loans per week worth more than $860 million. That capital is available through a broad network of SBA-approved lenders operating independently across the country.
Study shows risks for mental health workers in residential treatment facilities
A study published eight years ago found that each year, on average, one mental health worker is a victim of homicide in residential treatment facilities.
Charting how Trump became a historically unpopular president
President Donald Trump appears to be more unpopular than he’s ever been. In fact, his 35% average approval rating in the CNN Poll of Polls means he’s now flirting with George W. Bush territory. Bush is the only president since Jimmy Carter to spend a sustained period of time in the mid-30s or lower. And all of it is putting the Republican Party at risk of a severe rebuke from voters in just six months’ time in the 2026 midterm elections. It’s been a pretty gradual, steady deterioration throughout Trump’s more than 15 months back as president, but a few things stand out.
Schumer blasts 'reckless war' in Iran as gas prices continue to rise
The average cost of a regular gallon of gas in New York state is currently $4.46, according to AAA.
[Form 4] Dolphin Entertainment, Inc. Insider Trading Activity
Dolphin Entertainment, Inc. Chief Executive Officer William O'Dowd IV purchased additional shares of the company’s Common Stock in the open market. He bought 3,400 shares on May 4, 2026 at a weighted average price of $1.46 per share, with individual trade prices ranging from $1.42 to $1.51.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:ACEL) Receives Average Rating of "Buy" from Analysts
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:ACEL - Get Free Report) has earned a consensus recommendation of "Buy" from the six brokerages that are currently covering the firm, Marketbeat.com reports. One analyst has rated the stock with a hold rating, four have issued a buy rating and one has given a stron
A $50 Movie Ticket Is Peak Entertainment Elitism
Can the average American afford to be entertained? Recent headlines suggest the answer is “no.”
Red Bluff science student named
Elli Norton was recently honored as the Red Bluff High School’s Spring semester student after the 5th grading period. Norton, a junior, has earned a 4.43 grade point average. Among the science classes she has taken are…
UK house prices in surprise increase; NatWest braces for slowing economy
Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as average house price rose 0.4% in April and NatWest sets aside £140m
Governor Bob Ferguson
I'm proud of our dedicated fanbase for professional sports here in Washington state. The Seattle Torrent has broken attendance records in its inaugural season while leading average attendance!
Celtics Announce Jayson Tatum's Historic Playoff Milestone After 76ers Loss
Jayson Tatum has played big minutes for the Boston Celtics in their opening-round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Tatum is averaging a team-high 37.8 minutes per game this series, including 42 minutes in the 108-100 win on Friday and 41 minutes in Tuesday’s 113-97 loss. Tatum scored 24 points in the matchup and secured 16 rebounds.
Arkansas Health Insurance Marketplace Data Show Changes in Enrollment, Plan Selection, Premiums
New data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services show that marketplace plan enrollment in Arkansas decreased by 3.8% in the 2026 open enrollment period compared to 2025, but there was a shift in the types of plans selected and a notable increase in average plan premiums.
Record European Heatwaves Shrink Glaciers And Diminish Snow Cover In 2025
Around 95% of Europe experienced above-average temperatures in 2025, with record heatwaves from the Mediterranean to the Arctic region. This caused rapid loss
Anthropic doubles estimate for Claude Code token spend
Anthropic now says that the average cost per developer per active day is $13, up from $6 earlier this month.
Game 29: Mariners at Twins
If Connor Prielipp averages 9 pitches per inning then we probably don’t have to see the bullpen today. Positives.
Nucor Logs Profit Rises, Boosted by Steel Mills Business
The steel manufacturer higher profit across its three main business segments compared with the fourth quarter, with particularly strong growth in its steel mills segment, which benefited from higher average selling prices and volumes across all product groups, the company said.
Science & Medicine: Weight loss surgery without the scalpel
Obesity rates in South Texas exceed the national average, but many patients hesitate to pursue bariatric surgery due to the risks involved. UT Health San Antonio now offers endoscopic alternatives that achieve comparable weight loss results with no incisions, shorter recovery times, and lower risk.
Lost season for some winter sports leads to adaptation in Black Hills visitor industry
From October through early April, snowfall in the northern Black Hills was about 8 feet less than average.
Avera receives $35M gift for New Golisano Children’s Hospital
Avera Health receives $35 million gift from philanthropist B. Thomas Golisano, thus renaming its new Sioux Falls women's health and children’s hospital tower the Avera Golisano Children’s Hospital.
As tariff refunds begin, Hochul says New Yorkers 'deserve their money back'
Estimates show the average New York household has faced an estimated $1,751 in added costs due to tariffs since they were enacted last year.
As tariff refunds begin, Hochul says New Yorkers 'deserve their money back'
Estimates show the average New York household has faced an estimated $1,751 in added costs due to tariffs since they were enacted last year.
How Employers Support Lower-Waged Workers' Access to Health Insurance Options
Health insurance makes up 8% of total employee compensation on average, and while most employees take up health insurance when it is offered, lower-wage workers are far less likely to be able to access coverage, according to an analysis of survey data and focus groups with more than 100 U.S. employers with over a quarter of a million employees.
Duke C Patrick Ngongba II returning for junior season
Ngongba averaged 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2 assists last season.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Wemby, Jokic finalists for NBA MVP
Reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines the finalists announced Sunday for this year's award alongside San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama and Denver's three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.Gilgeous-Alexander, who beat out Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the voting last year and was also named NBA Finals MVP as the Thunder beat Indiana for the trophy, averaged more than 30 points per game this season.
Caitlin Clark Prioritizes Health As WNBA Banks on Her Availability
WNBA broadcasts during the 2025 season averaged 969,000 viewers across ESPN networks, Ion, and CBS—a modest 3% increase in viewership compared to 2024.
Avera Health hosts hundreds of families for NICU reunion
Families with children who spent some of their first days in the NICU got to reunite with those who took care of them.
Gathering of Nations’ ‘Last Dance’ could signal big loss for local businesses
Albuquerque’s Gathering of Nations powwow is approaching its final ‘Last Dance’ this weekend, and local businesses are hoping the event goes out with a bang as they brace for the loss of up to $30 million in annual economic activity and hotel occupancy rates roughly 20% higher than average.
Former Arkansas basketball guard D.J. Wagner commits to Maryland
Wagner, who announced he was entering the portal on April 6, averaged 7.4 points and 2.4 assists per game in his junior season.
Vacancies for San Diego life science office space remain near record highs
Total leasing activity dropped significantly in the first quarter, with volume falling to 223,000 square feet — almost 50% less than the 2025 quarterly average of 450,000 square feet.
NASCAR Accused Of 'Losing The South' By Former Driver
A five-time NASCAR Cup Series winner made it abundantly clear this week that he's not pleased with the current product. This past Sunday's race at Bristol Motor Speedway averaged 1.945 million viewers on FS1, per Nielsen's data. That’s down 5% from last year, which would make it the least-watched ...
NFIB small business optimism index falls below 52-year average in March
Small business optimism declined in March as profit trends worsened and uncertainty climbed, according to a survey released Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, dropping below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. The NFIB […]
Kansas Transfer Jamari McDowell Commits to Wake Forest
The Deacs have their 3rd addition of the portal with Kansas Jayhawk guard Jamari McDowell. McDowell is a 6-5 redshirt sophomore who averaged 3.3 points and 1.1 assists in 17 minutes per game for the Jayhawks this season. After redshirting in the 2024-25 season due to injury, McDowell was the 6th man for Kansas this […]
Small business optimism drops, more owners cautious on spending: NFIB
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March to 95.8, falling below the 52-year average of 98.0. NFIB Research Center executive director Holly Wade breaks down the data and what factors are impacting American small business owners, including price pressures, as uncertainty rises.
Trump Increased Tax Refunds, but a Political Challenge Still Looms
While last year’s tax law has raised the average I.R.S. refund, the boost is less than the White House expected — and may not have much impact on voters.
Productivity and Politics
Productivity is normally the dry and esoteric stuff of academic debates. But at present, productivity lies at the root of some of the most contentious political debates. If one reads the newly released Economic Report of the President, one will find that the administration is expecting real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an average rate […]
Oil Price Spike Erodes Small Business Confidence, NFIB Says
Small business optimism dipped below its 52-year average for the first time in a year in March, driven by the Iran war and the subsequent surge in oil
New Mexico childhood obesity up as Trump administration cuts erode healthy food programs
By third grade, New Mexico childhood obesity rates outpace the national average — which hovers around 20% for those 2 to 19.
Derek Dixon commits to Arizona
UNC will be looking for a new point guard for next season. Derek Dixon, who entered his name into the transfer portal last week, has committed to the University of Arizona and Tommy Lloyd. The freshman averaged 6.5 points per game and led the Tar Heels in assists after he wrestled the starting point guard […]
Gas prices expected to rise again this week, analyst says
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Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index: AI posts gains in science and medicine while often struggling to read a clock
Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index paints a split-screen picture for R&D. In the report’s science chapter, “frontier models outperform human chemists on average on ChemBench,” yet “score below 20% on replication in astrophysics and 33% on Earth observation questions.” In medicine, the report reaches a similarly mixed conclusion, saying AI is transforming clinical care, but…
2026 Best Business Schools | Average SAT, ACT & GPA Scores At The Top B-Schools
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“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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When and why political leaders polarise rhetoric: Evidence from Twitter/X
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Iowa Business Council projects positive six-month economic outlook
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Most U.S. states are warming but not in the way you think
Warming across the U.S. is far more uneven than it looks at first glance. While only about half of states show rising average temperatures, most are heating up in specific ways—like hotter highs or warmer lows. These hidden shifts vary by region, with the West seeing more extreme heat and the North losing cold extremes. The findings suggest climate change is playing out differently depending on where you live.
A light round of direct cattle business on Friday
Direct cash cattle trade activity was relatively quiet Friday, with a few deals reported in the South. For the week, live deals in the South were at $245 to $246, $8 to $9 higher than the previous week’s weighted averages. Dressed deals in the North were at mostly $385, $13 higher than the prior week’s […]
Tribal gas stations see surge in business as fuel prices hover significantly below WA state average
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Nebraska women’s basketball’s Petra Bozan to enter transfer portal
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Anthony Edwards becomes latest NBA star bitten by awards eligibility rules with 17th absence
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New weight-loss pill hits the market, promising 'greater flexibility'
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Iowa State star Audi Crooks reportedly entering transfer portal
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SIDUS SPACE REPORTS FULL-YEAR 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND PROVIDES BUSINESS UPDATES
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Pricing, politics and patients: the new drug affordability battle
The USA remains the outlier among wealthy drug markets. OECD data for 2023 put US retail pharmaceutical spending at $1,713 per person, against an OECD average of $766. Germany was at $1,158 and Switzerland at $1,061.
Four takeaways from The Bee’s investigation into Sutter County GOP’s cash haul
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Exclusive | KKR Scores One of Its Best Bets With Sale of Data-Center Cooling Business
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Winter sports teams earn scholastic honors - Fayetteville-Manlius CSD
All 10 of the Fayetteville-Manlius School District Winter 2025-26 varsity sports earned Scholar-Athlete status from the New York State Public High School Athletic Association (NYSPHSAA) Section III. This accomplishment is earned by 75% or more of the varsity roster having an average grade point average (GPA) of 90% or above; 171 student-athletes earned that accomplishment.
Glyphosate: A story of science, risk, and nuance
In the summer of 2014, a California groundskeeper named Dewayne Johnson started noticing patches of raw, weeping skin spreading across his body. He had spent years applying Roundup, Monsanto’s glyphosate-based herbicide, for a school district, sometimes drenched in it when equipment malfunctioned. By 2014, he had a diagnosis: non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. In 2018, a jury awarded him $289 million in damages, later reduced on appeal. Tens of thousands of lawsuits followed. The story hasn’t quieted down. It’s all over the internet, swinging between “this will kill you, buy organic” and “relax, you’re fear-mongering.” Some of that recent chatter stems from an Executive Order protecting glyphosate and its production, which set off intense infighting within the MAHA movement. Some of it reflects a deeper truth: Americans genuinely care about harmful chemicals in their environment (see poll below). And the conversation isn’t going anywhere, with a Supreme Court case involving Monsanto set for this April. Glyphosate (the active ingredient in Roundup) is one of the most widely used herbicides in the world. But does glyphosate cause cancer? And how much exposure is actually risky? With so much mistrust in institutions and corporations (and some genuine conflicts of interest), making sense of the actual scientific evidence is genuinely hard. Here is a translation of what the scientific evidence actually says. Does glyphosate cause harm? Glyphosate is an herbicide that kills most plants it contacts rather than targeting specific species. It works by blocking an enzyme pathway (EPSPS) that plants and many microorganisms need to produce essential amino acids. Without those amino acids, the plant can’t grow and dies. Glyphosate was first developed by Monsanto in the 1970s and became ubiquitous after the company introduced “Roundup Ready” crops in the 1990s. In 2024, Bayer removed glyphosate from residential Roundup-branded products due to litigation pressure. But today it is still the most widely used herbicide in the world. Farmers also discovered they could spray it directly on crops like oats, lentils, beans, and peas just before harvest to dry them out faster and make harvesting easier. Because of its widespread use, it’s obviously really important to understand if it’s harmful to humans. The key principle: The dose makes the poison The most important concept in toxicology is that “the dose makes the poison.” Sixteenth-century physician Paracelsus articulated what remains the foundational principle of toxicology: sola dosis facit venenum. Water will kill you if you drink enough of it. Aspirin saves lives at 81 milligrams and causes internal bleeding at higher chronic doses. So, at what dose is glyphosate poisonous? The LD50 in rats (the dose that kills half the test animals) is around 5,600 mg/kg body weight. Table salt is roughly 3,000 mg/kg. By that classic measure, glyphosate is less acutely toxic than salt. But some people are exposed to a lot of glyphosate through their work. And among the general public, there are many questions about low-dose, cumulative exposure from multiple sources over long periods. Does glyphosate cause health problems? Cancer Correlation maps are striking, with one analysis finding that 60% of counties that spray the most glyphosate have non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma rates above the national average. But correlation alone doesn’t establish cause, which is why animal and human studies matter. In animals: Rat studies are typically what most fear is rooted in, but most people don’t know the study details on the dosage given to rats. A pooled analysis of the 13 most rigorous rat studies found evidence that very high doses, around 55,000 times greater than typical food residue exposure, can cause certain cancers. In humans: One of the strongest studies followed 55,000 herbicide users over 20 years and found no overall increased cancer risk. There was one signal: among those with the highest use, rates of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) appeared elevated. A broader meta-analysis of 18 human studies also found no overall cancer risk, though a separate meta-analysis focused specifically on non-Hodgkin lymphoma found that people with high cumulative glyphosate exposure faced a 41% higher relative risk compared to those with low or no exposure. These human studies are observational studies (randomized controlled trials would be unethical), and meta-analyses are only as reliable as the studies they pool. But the story seems consistent: at very high exposure levels, there may be some cancer risk. But that’s about as far as the science currently takes us. Emerging research: gut and reproductive health Gut: Because glyphosate targets a pathway that exists in some gut bacteria, scientists have questioned whether it could affect the microbiome. In mice, a 2023 University of Iowa study found that glyphosate altered gut bacterial composition and raised markers of intestinal inflammation. A 2024 systematic review found similar patterns: disrupted gut bacteria and problems with the mucus layer that protects the intestinal wall in mice. Whether this translates to humans is an open question. The human gut is highly variable and resistant, and we don't yet have strong studies confirming the same effects in people. Reproductive health: Animal studies have found that glyphosate-based herbicides can interfere with reproductive hormones, including disrupting egg cell development in mice and reducing the number of eggs available in sheep’s ovaries. However, the doses used in these experiments were high, so it’s not yet clear whether the same effects would occur in humans. On the human side, a 2021 pilot study led by Mount Sinai researchers tested urine samples from pregnant women across the U.S. and found glyphosate in 95% of them. The study also found a possible connection between higher glyphosate exposure during pregnancy and a subtle physical difference measured in female newborns. That said, some connections weren’t statistically reliable and this was a small study. The researchers themselves said more and larger studies are needed before drawing firm conclusions. What do regulators say about glyphosate safety? In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), part of the World Health Organization, classified glyphosate as "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A). The classification is worth taking seriously. But, there’s an important distinction: IARC classifies hazard, meaning the potential to cause harm under some conditions. It does not assess risk, which accounts for actual exposure levels and the real-world probability of harm. The U.S. EPA, the European Food Safety Authority, Health Canada, and regulatory agencies in Australia and Japan have all concluded that glyphosate is “unlikely to be carcinogenic to humans” at realistic exposure levels. They’re asking a different question: given how much of this people actually encounter, what is the probability of harm? Your actual exposure is what determines your actual risk. What does glyphosate mean for your daily life? At the grocery store: Food residues are small. The EPA’s acceptable daily intake is 1.75 mg/kg of body weight per day. To hit that threshold from oatmeal alone, a 150-pound adult would need to eat roughly 50 pounds of oats every day. But this calculation addresses only one pathway (food), and we don’t yet have robust tools to measure people’s actual total exposure. If reducing exposure matters to you, organic certification prohibits synthetic herbicides, and organic oat products generally test at lower or undetectable levels. Either way, a diet rich in whole grains, conventional or organic, is far better for your health than one that omits them out of fear of residues. On the farm: Occupational exposure is orders of magnitude higher than consumer exposure. Farmers and farm workers who mix, load, and apply glyphosate-based herbicides, especially without protective equipment, face meaningfully different risk profiles. Proper PPE isn’t optional. Integrated weed management strategies that rotate chemical modes of action are also worth taking seriously, both for health and for long-term effectiveness. If you live near a farm: Spray drift is real. Concentrations near field edges can spike during and after application, particularly on windy days. This is an area where I think public health could really step up and empower rural communities with buffer zones, rather than placing the onus on individuals. But for now, knowing your local agricultural calendar and keeping windows closed during application are the first steps. Bottom line Dewayne Johnson was exposed to glyphosate at levels most people will never encounter, and a jury decided he deserved compensation. That outcome is not evidence that the oatmeal in your pantry is dangerous. But it is a reminder that the dose, the context, and the person doing the exposing all matter enormously. Glyphosate is a chemical tool with benefits, trade-offs, and genuine open scientific questions. Learning to hold that complexity without collapsing into panic or dismissal is, honestly, one of the most useful and hardest things to do in navigating modern health science. Love, YLE Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. Hannah Totte, MPH, is an epidemiologist and YLE Community Manager. YLE reaches more than 425,000 people in over 132 countries with one goal: “Translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below: Subscribe
Deloitte: From Subscribers to Superfans: Fan Engagement Shapes the Next Phase of Media and Entertainment Growth
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