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Is stevia actually healthy? What to know when cutting back on sugar
Is stevia bad for you? A dietitian breaks down what to know about the sugar substitute.
USC study suggests link between healthy diet and increased lung cancer risk
Former Wisconsin man sentenced to 20 months in federal prison
Court records show U.S. District Judge James Peterson sentenced Roger Hoffman on Wednesday.
Healthy diet, higher lung cancer risk? Deciphering surprising link in new study
Researchers have found a link between healthier diets containing fruits, vegetables, and whole grains and higher rates of early onset lung cancer in nonsmokers. Here's what experts say about these findings.
The Women’s Sports Boom Is Reminding Us What Strong, Healthy Bodies Look Like
Could this be the antidote to diet culture?
Scientists remove “zombie” cells and reverse liver damage in mice
A rogue set of “zombie” immune cells may be driving aging and fatty liver disease by flooding tissues with inflammation. Researchers found these cells accumulate with age and high cholesterol—and can make up most of the liver’s immune cells in older mice. When scientists removed them, liver damage was dramatically reversed, even without diet changes.
Make a Low-Carb or Low-Fat Diet Heart-Healthy with These 3 Foods
In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, discover a cardiologist-approved way to eat a low-carb or a low-fat diet to prevent heart disease.
Beef is making a comeback – does it fit into a healthy diet?
The protein craze is in full swing and beef consumption is on the rise, particularly in the US, where health agencies are promoting red meat as part of an optimum diet. So, how much beef should we really be eating, and how does it impact our well-being?
I'm 87 and lift weights, do yoga, and cycle weekly
Peter Brenner, 87, says cycling, yoga, weights, and a simple diet have helped him stay fit after a childhood marked by war, loss, and hardship.
Ultraprocessed foods are turning human thighs into well-marbled steaks
Diets high in ultraprocessed foods create streaks of fat in human muscles that may lead to osteoporosis, a new study found.
The link between ultraprocessed foods and muscle health
People who ate diets that were high in ultraprocessed foods had more fat in between their muscles.
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
TCU Nutritional Sciences Expert Discusses New US Dietary Guidelines
As updated federal recommendations roll out, Samantha Davis highlights gaps between science and messaging.
New research turns everything we thought we knew about yo-yo dieting on its head
3 diet tweaks heart health nutrition scientist made to prevent disease
How quickly and when you eat could affect your metabolic and cardiovascular health, professor Sarah Berry said.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Not All “Plant-Based” Diets Are Equal for Brain Health
A large study suggests healthier plant-based diets may be linked to lower dementia risk, while processed plant foods may not. The findings show association, not proof.
The Connection Between Food and Mood
There's a strong link between foods you eat and your mood. Here's what to include and what to limit in your diet.
UC People: Mary Blackburn, public health pioneer
Trailblazing Black dietitian Mary Blackburn began her University of California career in the tumultuous Civil Rights era.
RFK Jr. launches health podcast as his vaccine push stalls
The move follows setbacks to overhaul U.S. vaccination policy, including low public support and a federal court ruling that halted key plans.
Pitt’s philosophy program ranked No. 5 in the 2026 QS World University Rankings by Subject
The three Dietrich School units that make up the program continued its top-five streak, which dates back 10 years.
Simple dinner table habit linked to poor diet and higher health risks in adults over 60
New research links the common habit of reaching for the saltshaker at dinner to troubling health patterns in older adults, including blood pressure and poor diet.
Orioles-Cardinals Trade Brings Relief To An Injured O's Bullpen
The Baltimore Orioles added bullpen depth on Tuesday by acquiring left-hander Nick Raquet from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for infielder/outfielder Brayden Smith. According to the Orioles X account, Raquet has not yet reported to the team; Raquet was designated for assignment by the Cardinals on Sunday. On Monday, the Orioles placed left-hander Dietrich Enns on the 15-day injured list with a left foot infection and called up right-hander Brandon Young to start Monday against the Chicago White Sox.
The Blogs: The Difference Between Ideological “Research” and Evidence-Based Science
From the blog of Monique Dietvorst at The Times of Israel
Scientists solve 30-year mystery of a hidden nutrient that protects the brain and fights cancer
Scientists have finally uncovered the missing link in how our bodies absorb queuosine, a rare micronutrient crucial for brain health, memory, stress response, and cancer defense. For decades, researchers suspected a transporter had to exist, but it remained elusive—until now. By identifying the gene SLC35F2 as the gateway into cells, this breakthrough opens new possibilities for therapies and highlights how diet and gut microbes profoundly shape human health.
The No. 1 Nutrient to Eat If You Get Sick a Lot (It's Not Vitamin C!)
In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, a dietitian reveals the nutrient she recommends to people who keep getting sick.
How simple choices boost health after 50
A mostly plant-based diet with healthy proteins and fats can help you thrive as you age.
Sleep quality, duration and regularity impact teens’ diet and heart health
A new study on teenagers found that the times they go to sleep and wake up could play a significant role in what they eat and how they move throughout the day. The findings suggest quality sleep could ultimately be an important lever for protecting heart health, beyond just diet and exercise.
How to ‘detox’ your body for free without juice, teas or flushes
Feel like your body needs a reset? What if we told you that you can ‘detox’ for free by leveraging your body’s natural waste removal systems. PolitiFact shares how to do some spring cleaning without paying for a “juice cleanse” or “detox diet.”
The Secret to Healthy Eating Might Not Be What You Eat
It's not just dietary intake that's important.
8 Best Foods for Eye Health, According to a Dietitian
Carrots aren't the only food to eat for eye health. Find out which 8 foods a dietitian recommends adding to your diet to help protect your vision.
Arkansas baseball rallies to even series at Auburn
The Razorbacks got a great pitching performance from Hunter Dietz and Ethan McElvain, and two big swings from Ryder Helfrick.
The health benefits of spicy foods
Spice up your plate: learn how capsaicin in chile peppers may support heart health, reduce inflammation, boost mood, and fit into a balanced diet.
Could probiotics, dietary changes help protect brain health as we age?
A new review looks at how probiotics, prebiotics, dietary changes, and fecal microbiota transplants can help support gut health and preserve brain function as people age.
Want to renew healthy eating habits? Greek monks have a spring playbook
Across Greece and in Orthodox communities around the world, a centuries-old Lenten fast offers a modern lesson in diet and discipline.
Following 9 key steps for a lifetime of eating well can support heart health
Statement Highlights: Sustaining lifelong healthy eating patterns may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and other chronic health issues, according to the latest updated dietary guidance offered in a new scientific statement from the American...
Why this Stanford psychiatrist thinks diet can influence serious mental health disorders
Shebani Sethi is at the vanguard of metabolic psychiatry, a field that investigates the link between diet and serious mental health disorders.
The science behind Easter candy cravings — and when it becomes too much
Americans love Easter candy, spending more than $5 billion on it in 2024, with chocolate bunnies and eggs among the most popular treats, according to the National Confectioners Association. While having a candy or two on a holiday isn’t a problem, consistently eating too much sugar can have significant negative effects. According to Brenda Davy, a professor in the Department of Human Nutrition, Foods, and Exercise at Virginia Tech and a registered dietitian, added sugar consumption is
Revitalize Your Health This Spring
Key takeaways:Some people put off health screenings and appointments in the winter. Spring is the perfect time to do a reset and see what you need.Everyone should get a yearly physical. Talk to your primary care provider about what other screenings and vaccines you need.Spring can also be a time to recommit to health habits at home, like diet, e...
Power Players: FIFA World Cup 2026 — Arthur M. Blank Sports and Entertainment
Power Players: FIFA World Cup 2026 — Dietmar Exler, Arthur M. Blank Sports and Entertainment
30-Day Strength and Stretch Workout for Walkers, Plus Nutrition Tips
This strength and stretch plan will improve balance, build muscle and increase flexibility. Plus, learn simple diet tips to fuel your walks.
Makers of dietary supplements push the FDA to allow peptides and other new ingredients
Makers of dietary supplements are pushing the Food and Drug Administration to expand the types of ingredients they can put in their products.
6 Ways to Build a Healthier Easter Basket
Build a healthier Easter basket with simple swaps and fun additions. A dietitian shares easy ways to balance treats with better nutrition.
RFK Jr. makes food sound like a miracle drug, but researchers say he often overstates the science
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has claimed diet can "cure" schizophrenia and diabetes and allow people to rid themselves of bipolar disorder. Researchers say the comments overstate current evidence.
What teens eat could be affecting their mental health more than we thought
What teens eat might matter more for their mental health than previously thought. A sweeping review of nearly 20 studies found that healthier diets are often linked to fewer depressive symptoms, while poor eating habits may go hand in hand with greater psychological distress. Interestingly, focusing on whole dietary patterns—not just individual nutrients—showed more consistent benefits, suggesting that overall eating habits could play a meaningful role during this critical stage of brain development.
The 5 Best Canned Foods You Should Be Eating for Better Heart Health
Eating for heart health doesn’t mean you need to give up on canned foods. Dietitians recommend stocking up on these canned food staples for a healthier heart.
What teens eat could be affecting their mental health more than we thought
What teens eat might matter more for their mental health than previously thought. A sweeping review of nearly 20 studies found that healthier diets are often linked to fewer depressive symptoms, while poor eating habits may go hand in hand with greater psychological distress. Interestingly, focusing on whole dietary patterns—not just individual nutrients—showed more consistent benefits, suggesting that overall eating habits could play a meaningful role during this critical stage of brain development.
Popular sugar substitute linked to brain damage and stroke risk
A widely used sugar substitute found in everything from keto snacks to diet drinks may not be as harmless as it seems. New research shows that erythritol can disrupt brain blood vessel cells, reducing their ability to relax, increasing harmful oxidative stress, and impairing the body’s ability to break down clots. These changes create conditions that could raise stroke risk, even at typical consumption levels.
The Best Time to Eat High-Fiber Foods If You Want to Poop Tomorrow, According to Dietitians
Learn the best time to eat fiber to help you poop the next day, plus which foods work fastest and how long fiber takes to improve digestion.
Cardiologist's 3 Favorite High-Protein Foods to Boost Heart Health
In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, a cardiologist shares her favorite foods to add more healthy protein to her diet in a heart-healthy way.
Can Lifestyle Changes Over a Lifetime Protect Brain Health?
University of Miami researchers link long‑term exercise, diet, and social engagement to better cognition with aging.
Glyphosate: A story of science, risk, and nuance
In the summer of 2014, a California groundskeeper named Dewayne Johnson started noticing patches of raw, weeping skin spreading across his body. He had spent years applying Roundup, Monsanto’s glyphosate-based herbicide, for a school district, sometimes drenched in it when equipment malfunctioned. By 2014, he had a diagnosis: non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. In 2018, a jury awarded him $289 million in damages, later reduced on appeal. Tens of thousands of lawsuits followed. The story hasn’t quieted down. It’s all over the internet, swinging between “this will kill you, buy organic” and “relax, you’re fear-mongering.” Some of that recent chatter stems from an Executive Order protecting glyphosate and its production, which set off intense infighting within the MAHA movement. Some of it reflects a deeper truth: Americans genuinely care about harmful chemicals in their environment (see poll below). And the conversation isn’t going anywhere, with a Supreme Court case involving Monsanto set for this April. Glyphosate (the active ingredient in Roundup) is one of the most widely used herbicides in the world. But does glyphosate cause cancer? And how much exposure is actually risky? With so much mistrust in institutions and corporations (and some genuine conflicts of interest), making sense of the actual scientific evidence is genuinely hard. Here is a translation of what the scientific evidence actually says. Does glyphosate cause harm? Glyphosate is an herbicide that kills most plants it contacts rather than targeting specific species. It works by blocking an enzyme pathway (EPSPS) that plants and many microorganisms need to produce essential amino acids. Without those amino acids, the plant can’t grow and dies. Glyphosate was first developed by Monsanto in the 1970s and became ubiquitous after the company introduced “Roundup Ready” crops in the 1990s. In 2024, Bayer removed glyphosate from residential Roundup-branded products due to litigation pressure. But today it is still the most widely used herbicide in the world. Farmers also discovered they could spray it directly on crops like oats, lentils, beans, and peas just before harvest to dry them out faster and make harvesting easier. Because of its widespread use, it’s obviously really important to understand if it’s harmful to humans. The key principle: The dose makes the poison The most important concept in toxicology is that “the dose makes the poison.” Sixteenth-century physician Paracelsus articulated what remains the foundational principle of toxicology: sola dosis facit venenum. Water will kill you if you drink enough of it. Aspirin saves lives at 81 milligrams and causes internal bleeding at higher chronic doses. So, at what dose is glyphosate poisonous? The LD50 in rats (the dose that kills half the test animals) is around 5,600 mg/kg body weight. Table salt is roughly 3,000 mg/kg. By that classic measure, glyphosate is less acutely toxic than salt. But some people are exposed to a lot of glyphosate through their work. And among the general public, there are many questions about low-dose, cumulative exposure from multiple sources over long periods. Does glyphosate cause health problems? Cancer Correlation maps are striking, with one analysis finding that 60% of counties that spray the most glyphosate have non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma rates above the national average. But correlation alone doesn’t establish cause, which is why animal and human studies matter. In animals: Rat studies are typically what most fear is rooted in, but most people don’t know the study details on the dosage given to rats. A pooled analysis of the 13 most rigorous rat studies found evidence that very high doses, around 55,000 times greater than typical food residue exposure, can cause certain cancers. In humans: One of the strongest studies followed 55,000 herbicide users over 20 years and found no overall increased cancer risk. There was one signal: among those with the highest use, rates of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) appeared elevated. A broader meta-analysis of 18 human studies also found no overall cancer risk, though a separate meta-analysis focused specifically on non-Hodgkin lymphoma found that people with high cumulative glyphosate exposure faced a 41% higher relative risk compared to those with low or no exposure. These human studies are observational studies (randomized controlled trials would be unethical), and meta-analyses are only as reliable as the studies they pool. But the story seems consistent: at very high exposure levels, there may be some cancer risk. But that’s about as far as the science currently takes us. Emerging research: gut and reproductive health Gut: Because glyphosate targets a pathway that exists in some gut bacteria, scientists have questioned whether it could affect the microbiome. In mice, a 2023 University of Iowa study found that glyphosate altered gut bacterial composition and raised markers of intestinal inflammation. A 2024 systematic review found similar patterns: disrupted gut bacteria and problems with the mucus layer that protects the intestinal wall in mice. Whether this translates to humans is an open question. The human gut is highly variable and resistant, and we don't yet have strong studies confirming the same effects in people. Reproductive health: Animal studies have found that glyphosate-based herbicides can interfere with reproductive hormones, including disrupting egg cell development in mice and reducing the number of eggs available in sheep’s ovaries. However, the doses used in these experiments were high, so it’s not yet clear whether the same effects would occur in humans. On the human side, a 2021 pilot study led by Mount Sinai researchers tested urine samples from pregnant women across the U.S. and found glyphosate in 95% of them. The study also found a possible connection between higher glyphosate exposure during pregnancy and a subtle physical difference measured in female newborns. That said, some connections weren’t statistically reliable and this was a small study. The researchers themselves said more and larger studies are needed before drawing firm conclusions. What do regulators say about glyphosate safety? In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), part of the World Health Organization, classified glyphosate as "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A). The classification is worth taking seriously. But, there’s an important distinction: IARC classifies hazard, meaning the potential to cause harm under some conditions. It does not assess risk, which accounts for actual exposure levels and the real-world probability of harm. The U.S. EPA, the European Food Safety Authority, Health Canada, and regulatory agencies in Australia and Japan have all concluded that glyphosate is “unlikely to be carcinogenic to humans” at realistic exposure levels. They’re asking a different question: given how much of this people actually encounter, what is the probability of harm? Your actual exposure is what determines your actual risk. What does glyphosate mean for your daily life? At the grocery store: Food residues are small. The EPA’s acceptable daily intake is 1.75 mg/kg of body weight per day. To hit that threshold from oatmeal alone, a 150-pound adult would need to eat roughly 50 pounds of oats every day. But this calculation addresses only one pathway (food), and we don’t yet have robust tools to measure people’s actual total exposure. If reducing exposure matters to you, organic certification prohibits synthetic herbicides, and organic oat products generally test at lower or undetectable levels. Either way, a diet rich in whole grains, conventional or organic, is far better for your health than one that omits them out of fear of residues. On the farm: Occupational exposure is orders of magnitude higher than consumer exposure. Farmers and farm workers who mix, load, and apply glyphosate-based herbicides, especially without protective equipment, face meaningfully different risk profiles. Proper PPE isn’t optional. Integrated weed management strategies that rotate chemical modes of action are also worth taking seriously, both for health and for long-term effectiveness. If you live near a farm: Spray drift is real. Concentrations near field edges can spike during and after application, particularly on windy days. This is an area where I think public health could really step up and empower rural communities with buffer zones, rather than placing the onus on individuals. But for now, knowing your local agricultural calendar and keeping windows closed during application are the first steps. Bottom line Dewayne Johnson was exposed to glyphosate at levels most people will never encounter, and a jury decided he deserved compensation. That outcome is not evidence that the oatmeal in your pantry is dangerous. But it is a reminder that the dose, the context, and the person doing the exposing all matter enormously. Glyphosate is a chemical tool with benefits, trade-offs, and genuine open scientific questions. Learning to hold that complexity without collapsing into panic or dismissal is, honestly, one of the most useful and hardest things to do in navigating modern health science. Love, YLE Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. Hannah Totte, MPH, is an epidemiologist and YLE Community Manager. YLE reaches more than 425,000 people in over 132 countries with one goal: “Translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below: Subscribe
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