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IPERS CEO Samorajski resigns
Gov. Kim Reynolds today announced she has accepted the resignation of Greg Samorajski, former chief executive officer of the Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System. His resignation was received May 1 and was effective immediately. Samorajski was placed on administrative leave March 31 as a result of alleged misconduct allegations. IPERS Chief Benefits Officer Steven Herbert…
Atlanta Startup BD4 Builds Business Development Platform for Attorneys, Consultants, and Wealth Managers
Founded by Atlanta entrepreneur Gregg Bedol, BD4 helps attorneys, consultants, wealth managers, and other professionals manage relationship-driven business development.
Is the FDA Really Suppressing Science? Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, May 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aaron MacLean says Trump is poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Iran war. Joe Klein on the life of CNN founder Ted Turner. Jillian Lederman on why cruise ships are here to stay. And much more. But first: Is the FDA suppressing science? On Tuesday, The New York Times published a story with an alarming takeaway. “FDA Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” read the headline. It is the latest in a string of stories that all have the same message: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies, are engaged in a cover-up—and silencing scientists trying to get the word out about the Covid vaccine. What all these stories suggest—some more subtly than others—is that the outsiders now running the public health establishment, officials such as Marty Makary at the FDA and Jay Bhattacharya at the National Institutes of Health, are on a revenge tour. That they are doing harm to the country to get back at the scientists and bureaucrats who ostracized them for deviating from the public-health consensus during the pandemic. It’s a seductive narrative. But is it true? That’s the question we address in our latest editorial. —The Editors Read [ Marty Makary's FDA Has All the Right Enemies ](https://www.thefp.com/p/marty-makary-vaccine-study-fda) [ Trump Blinks First ](https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-peace-deal-pakistan-trump-strait-of-hormuz) Aaron MacLean In return for no detectable concessions, President Trump this week gave up on forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Trump administration looks desperate for a deal to end the war with Iran. It’s easy to understand the desire to end the war, but are they blowing the chance at victory? Aaron MacLean makes sense of the administration’s latest moves—and Iran’s response—in his column today. Read full story Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson: Live in New York City Join Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson on May 19 for a live recording of School of War at the iconic New York Historical. In a conversation as timely as it is wide-ranging, Aaron and Niall will explore the strategic stakes of the moment, including the Middle East, China, and the future of American leadership on the global stage. Get Tickets Now [ Ted Turner, the Optimist Who Built CNN ](https://www.thefp.com/p/ted-turner-cnn-tribute) Joe Klein The man who gave us CNN and the 24-hour news cycle, Ted Turner, died Wednesday at the age of 87. Today, political writer Joe Klein—who almost ghostwrote Turner’s autobiography—remembers his friend, the American media mogul who stood out for his idealism and lack of a filter—something that got Turner in trouble more than once. “His was not a traditional intelligence, but one of horizon: Ted saw things before other people did,” Joe writes. Read full story [ Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship ](https://www.thefp.com/p/cruise-ship-hantavirus) Jillian Lederman A viral outbreak on a cruise ship that left three passengers dead has left some people wondering: Are cruise ships on the way out? Not so fast, says Jillian Lederman, who has been on many a cruise herself. Read her piece on why 38 million people a year take a cruise—and aren’t about to stop. Read full story [ The Great Writers Who Were Terrible People ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-great-writers-who-were-terrible) Shilo Brooks Throughout history, some of the greatest literary geniuses have also been immoral bigots. In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks is joined by Eli Lake for a conversation about those geniuses, from Voltaire to Norman Mailer and Roald Dahl—and why we should read their work despite their odious prejudices. Listen on MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Inside the Digital Intifada ](https://www.thefp.com/p/digital-intifada-social-media-hamas-terror) Warren Kinsella Read full story [ This Week in American History: Trump’s Over-Arching Problem ](https://www.thefp.com/p/this-week-in-american-history-trumps-over-arching-problem) Jonathan Horn Read full story [ Humanity Is Still Evolving—and Fast ](https://www.thefp.com/p/humanity-is-still-evolvingand-fast) Razib Khan Read full story THE NEWS Thirteen D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have been placed on administrative leave and could face termination after an internal investigation found evidence that crime statistics were manipulated to make the city look safer. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee previously alleged that former D.C. police chief Pamela Smith pressured officers to skew data. Tennessee Republicans unveiled a redrawn U.S. House map yesterday that would split up Memphis’s black-majority Democratic district, the latest move in a nationwide push to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the midterms. The effort follows a Supreme Court ruling last week on Louisiana’s districts, which Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton said gave states the green light to redraw maps along partisan lines. Israel struck Beirut for the first time since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month, saying it targeted a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force in the city’s southern suburbs. The strikes risk destabilizing that truce at a delicate moment, as Iran and the U.S. report progress toward a deal to resolve their own standoff. The U.S. Air Force is aiming for a Fourth of July delivery of a Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, hoping to add it to the Air Force One fleet in time for the U.S.’s 250th anniversary, Reuters reported. (For more on the controversy surrounding the aircraft, read Jed Rubenfeld’s piece “It’s a Terrible Idea, but Trump Probably Can Accept a Free Jet from Qatar.”) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified privately before Congress that he has no memory of why he and his family dined on Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, according to Reuters. The admission contradicts Lutnick’s earlier claim that he had cut ties with the convicted sex offender well before that visit. Weeks before a former JPMorgan investment banker filed a lawsuit packed with explosive allegations, the bank reportedly offered him $1 million to settle his sexual assault and harassment claims, according to The Wall Street Journal. The suit, filed by Chirayu Rana, alleges he was sexually assaulted by a female colleague, subjected to racial discrimination, and forced into a degrading dynamic at work. JPMorgan says the claims lack merit, and the female colleague’s lawyers call the accusations fabricated. A new report from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research shows that, for the first time in roughly 20 years, church attendance is trending upward, with more people volunteering and clergy expressing renewed optimism. The study’s authors described the findings, based on a survey of more than 7,400 congregations, as showing signs of widespread recovery from low attendance numbers.
📸 Two handballs? Second yellow? Penalty? Bayern are baffled!
There’s real fire in the second leg of the CL semi-final — and not just because PSG extended their aggregate lead to two goals with an early strike. By now, fierce debate has already erupted over ...
Gregg Popovich reportedly involved in Spurs' film session following Game 1 loss to Timberwolves
The 7 biggest revelations from Greg Brockman's second day of testimony
The OpenAI president's testimony revealed Elon Musk confrontations with the company's founders and the OpenAI's skyrocketing computing costs.
OpenAI founder details partying with Elon Musk before parting ways
OpenAI President Greg Brockman told the jury about an explosive meeting with Musk days after celebratory drinks at the Tesla CEO's 'haunted mansion.'
What to know about the Ohio 1st District U.S. House election
Local Democrats and Republicans will vote today in Ohio's 1st District, a closely-watched seat currently held by Rep. Greg Landsman.
Rangers poised for Champions League spot - if they win title
Greg Taylor's PAOK handed Rangers a potential Champions League qualifying boost after beating Greek title rivals Olympiakos 3-1 on Sunday. The defeat leaves the reigning champions six points adrift of leaders AEK Athens with three games remaining. It means Rangers are now favourites to take the final available automatic qualifying place in next season's league stage of Europe's premier club competition - but only if they first win the Scottish title.
Women's Champions League: Barcelona secure final spot with 4-2 win
Barcelona beat Bayern Munich 4-2 (5-3 on aggregate) to secure place in Women's Champions League final on Saturday 23rd May when they will face Lyon in Oslo.
Rep. Greg Casar pushes 'accountability and affordability message for Democrats in Austin
The Austin-area Democrat promised to hold Republicans accountable and tackle affordability, but danced around the thorny issue of state Rep. James Talarico's credibility with Black voters.
Des Moines' Greg Abel reassures Berkshire investors with record cash
CEO Greg Abel of Des Moines assured shareholders he wouldn't break up Berkshire Hathaway, saying it operated effectively and its expertise was strong.
Greg Abel: We have an exceptional group of leaders and businesses
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel presides over the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.
Crowd shrinks as Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO leads the annual meeting for the first time Saturday
Attendance drops and a quieter tone mark Berkshire Hathaway's first annual meeting under CEO Greg Abel, as Warren Buffet steps back from leading the event.
Berkshire Profits More Than Double on Gains in Insurance, Railroad, Energy Businesses
The conglomerate reported results just ahead of its annual shareholder meeting, where new CEO Greg Abel will take the stage in Warren Buffett’s place.
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Five Heart Podcast: New Huskers in the NFL, Stadium Renovations, Spring Sports
The latest Five Heart Podcast opens with Greg and Fred returning after a missed week, chatting casually about life, weather, and Husker fandom before diving into key topics. The primary discussion centers on Nebraska’s approved $600 million Memorial Stadium renovation, framed as a necessary long-term investment rather than cosmetic upgrades. They highlight structural needs, maintaining […]
'Gutfeld!': Another Dem politician hates America
Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the 'Gutfeld!' panel discuss Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow's social media controversy.
Press gala shooter / Political violence / Iran war price tag
Saturday’s attack at the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner was the third assassination attempt on President Trump.Host Mary Louise Kelly speaks with NPR National Security Correspondent Greg Myre and NPR Justice Correspondent Ryan Lucas about what the attack says about the state of political violence in the U.S. and the debate over whether the Secret Service was ready to protect Trump and those around him. Email the show at sourcesandmethods@npr.orgNPR+ supporters hear every episode without sponsor messages and unlock access to our complete archive. Sign up at plus.npr.org.
“Xbox Mode is here”: Microsoft rolls out console-style experience on Windows 11, barely meeting its own deadline
Xbox Mode launches with support for aggregated game libraries, quick switching to desktop, and reduced background tasks to improve overall gaming performance.
Instagram cracks down on content aggregators
The update targets content aggregators that don't post original content and instead simply re-upload others' posts.
Work more, lose less? New bill aims to end Social Security penalty
A proposed bill from Sen. Rick Scott and Rep. Greg Murphy would let Social Security beneficiaries work without having their benefits reduced.
Landsman, Carey Bipartisan Bill to Support New Small Businesses Passes U.S. House
Cincinnati, OH – Today, Congressman Greg Landsman (D-OH-01) announced his bipartisan bill with Congressman Mike Carey, the NO BOSS Act, passed unanimously out of the U.S. House of Representatives. The New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficiency (NO BOSS) Act is bipartisan legislation to support Americans as they pursue small business ownership. The bill improves the […]
Lone Star Politics: April 26, 2026
The Dallas Police Department found themselves in the cross hairs of Governor Greg Abbott. We hear about how the rank-and-file were caught in this debate. Plus, Gerrymanders across the country shake up the map, we explore what happens next.
REPORT: Texas Workers’ Safety & Health in Danger Under Trump, Abbott Attacks
TEXAS – Today, on Workers Memorial Day, Texas workers are dying and being injured on the job after Donald Trump and Greg Abbott cut essential funding and staffing, directed resources away from agencies, and preempted policies that protect workers, according to a new report by the AFL-CIO.
Utah football director of sports performance resigns months after a promotion
Greg Argust had been with the program for 20 years, dating back to his time as a graduate assistant.
CT Business Blend: April 27, 2026
Hartford Business Journal’s Greg Bordonaro and WTIC’s Brian Shactman explore the people, companies and trends shaping Connecticut’s business scene every Monday at 8:30 a.m. on WTIC 1080 AM.
The Musk v Altman trial: Who's who in the tech titan showdown
Elon Musk takes Microsoft and OpenAI's Sam Altman to trial on Monday. Witnesses include Satya Nadella, Shivon Zilis, Mira Murati, and Greg Brockman.
Brooklyn College Hosts Urgent Discussion on Black Maternal Health Crisis
The event, attended by students, faculty, staff, and community members, was held in conjunction with the 2026 Perinatal Mental Health Summit at the Greg Jackson Center for Brownsville.
The New Linux Kernel AI Bot Uncovering Bugs Is A Local LLM On Framework Desktop + AMD Ryzen AI Max
Earlier this month on Phoronix we were the first to draw attention to a new fuzzing tool / AI bot uncovering kernel bugs by Greg Kroah-Hartman, the 'second in command' for Linux kernel development and stable maintainer
The biggest questions for Berkshire at Greg Abel's first annual meeting
Close followers want to get to know Greg Abel, and hear his plans for Berkshire Hathaway's stocks, cash, and businesses.
Thomas College to offer Bachelor of Science in Athletic Coaching degree this fall
“The ultimate goal for me would be to turn on the TV someday and see a Thomas alum sitting on the sideline of an NBA game or in the dugout of a Major League Baseball game,” said Greg King, Ed.D., professor of sport management.
Trump endorsement just part of the political drama in this Indiana Senate primary
Drama surrounds the May 5 Republican primary where Sen. Greg Goode of Terre Haute is trying to prevail despite defying Trump last year
Influential Black Political Caucus member criticizes Charlotte City Council over I-77 toll lanes
Raki McGregor, who chairs the BPC's transportation committee, said how council members act on I-77 could influence endorsements in the 2027 elections.
Abbott, HHSC announce $60M plan to improve rural health
Gov. Greg Abbott and HHSC unveiled $60 million in federal funding to help rural hospital districts expand prevention, wellness and chronic disease programs across Texas.
Gallatin resident named Tennessee Ambassador for music/entertainment industry
Gallatin resident and gospel recording artist Terran “T-RAN” Gilbert has been named an Ambassador for the Music and Entertainment Industry, receiving the honor on the floor of the Tennessee House of Representatives on March 23, 2026. The designation was part of a resolution presented by State Rep. Greg Vital, who represents District 29 in the
Another ‘hallucinated’ court filing highlights the difference between Silicon Valley and the rest of the world
We may have just witnessed the most egregious instance of workslop to date, and it’s one that matters — and not only because it’s objectively funny.
‘Abbott Elementary’: Will Janine & Gregory Get Married in Season 6?
The comedy left fans of the couple with a major cliffhanger.
Gamers sue Nintendo over tariff refunds, saying consumers should get the money back
Two gamers have filed a class action lawsuit against Nintendo, alleging that the company will be unjustly enriching itself with any refund it secures from the U.S. government over widespread tariffs last year that, among other things, hiked the prices of Nintendo hardware and accessories. “Unless restrained by this Court, Nintendo stands to recover the same tariff payments twice—once from consumers through higher prices and again from the federal government through tariff refunds, including interest paid by the government on those funds,” the suit states. Nintendo sued the U.S. government to secure a tariff refund in March, after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs a month prior, saying they were illegally implemented by President Donald Trump.. The gamers who have sued, California-based Gregory Hoffert and Washington-based Prashant Sharan, both say they purchased Nintendo goods that had increased in price due to tariffs, according to the complaint. They filed their suit in the Western District court of Nintendo of America’s home state of Washington and are seeking class action status to represent all people in the U.S. who purchased price-hiked Nintendo goods between February 1, 2025 and February 24, 2026. They allege that Nintendo’s recovery of any tariff refunds would constitute unjust enrichment and violate Washington state consumer protection law. Similar class action lawsuits pressing companies to pass on tariff refunds have been previously filed against FedEx, UPS and eyeglass importer EssilorLuxottica. The tariffs were announced in early April, and by mid-month, Nintendo had announced $5 price increases for controllers for the then-forthcoming Switch 2. In August, it raised the price of the original Switch. In their suit, the gamers cite comments from Nintendo executives connecting the tariffs to price increases. In May 2025, a month after the tariffs were imposed, Nintendo CEO Shuntaro Furukawa told investors “Our basic policy is that for any country or region, if tariffs are imposed, we recognize them as a part of the cost and incorporate them into the price.” Nintendo’s March lawsuit, along with tariff-recovery suits from hundreds of other companies was immediately put on hold pending the implementation of a refund system. The U.S. government announced the beginning of the refund process earlier this week. Companies could receive as much as $160 billion, per CNBC. In March 2026, after Nintendo filed its lawsuit to recover the cost of the tariffs, I asked the company if they planned to pass their refund on to customers who’d paid increased prices. The company’s response acknowledged the existence of the lawsuit but avoided answering that question: “We can confirm that we filed a request. We have nothing else to share on this topic.” Even a promise to consumers may not have spared Nintendo this week’s lawsuit. FedEx previously promised to pass its tariff refunds on to consumers. They’ve been sued over them anyway.
The birthplace of OpenAI is on the market for $1.5 million
Greg Brockman's former residence in the Mission, where OpenAI's founders worked before they had an office, is now for sale at around $1.5 million.
'Mini golf entertainment experience' to open in Cedar Park
PopStroke is a national leader in golf entertainment, with over 20 locations owned by Greg Bartoli and backed by Tiger Woods and TaylorMade, according to its website.
‘Mini golf entertainment experience’ to open in Cedar Park
PopStroke is a national leader in golf entertainment, with over 20 locations owned by Greg Bartoli and backed by Tiger Woods and TaylorMade, according to its website.
‘Mini golf entertainment experience’ to open in Cedar Park
PopStroke is a national leader in golf entertainment, with over 20 locations owned by Greg Bartoli and backed by Tiger Woods and TaylorMade, according to its website.
Texas Named Best State For Business For Record 22nd Consecutive Year
Texas Border Business AUSTIN ‒ Governor Greg Abbott celebrated Texas being ranked the Best State for Business for the 22nd year in a row by Chief Executive magazine. “Texas is where businesses innovate and where opportunity abounds,” said Governor Abbott. “Texas has long dominated the nation as the Best State for Business thanks to our pro-growth […]
CT Business Blend: April 20, 2026
Hartford Business Journal’s Greg Bordonaro and WTIC’s Brian Shactman explore the people, companies and trends shaping Connecticut’s business scene every Monday at 8:30 a.m. on WTIC 1080 AM.
Hart Announces Bill Package to Improve Health Care Access and Outcomes
Assemblymember Gregg Hart (D-Santa Barbara) has introduced three bills to help Californians obtain the care they need.
What to know about the Democrats running to represent Southwest Ohio
Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman will face challenger Damon Lynch IV in the May primary for Ohio's 1st District.
Greg Gutfeld: Gen Z’s rise in religion is a reaction against identity politics
Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze a poll showing Gen Z flocking to religion.
Scientists Found 5.5 Million Bees Living Beneath a New York Cemetery
One of the largest aggregations of ground-nesting bees in the world.
Expanding Opportunity in Youth Sports: IMG Academy CEO Brent Richard Speaks To Greg Olsen on the Future of Athlete Development
At IMG Academy, the mission has always been clear: empower student-athletes to reach their full potential athletically, academically, and personally. But as the youth sports landscape continues ...
Richmond Hill Fire Department’s Spring Fling returns with duck race, live entertainment and family fun
The 8th annual event at J.F. Gregory Park will feature food trucks, vendors, a classic car show and a charity duck race supporting local families in need.
Here are the Republicans running for Congress in Ohio's 1st District
There's a crowded Republican primary this year of candidates hoping to unseat incumbent Cincinnati Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.
Nominations open for Urbandale chamber’s business awards
The Urbandale Chamber of Commerce has opened nominations for its 2026 Celebration of Business Awards, recognizing local excellence across four categories: Young Professional of the Year, Greg Thompson Small Business of the Year, Business of the Year and Best in Class. Nominations for most categories close at 5 p.m. on May 1, while Best in…
Students showcase their skills at Lower Mills Science Fair
Students at Saint John Paul II Catholic Academy’s Lower Mills campus turned into scientists for the day on April 3, presenting their projects at the school’s annual STREAM Fair in the St. Gregory auditorium.
Tigres beat Seattle, Concacaf Champions Cup semi-final set
Tigres advance to the Concacaf Champions Cup semifinals in a thrilling matchup that ended level with Seattle Sounders on aggregate (3-3). Guido Pizarro’s side took too many risks, because despite co...
LA Galaxy Embarrassed and Eliminated 3-0 At Home
Los Angeles, Calif. -- The LA Galaxy were overcome by a scarlet wave, both in the stands and on the field, as they fell 3-0 (2-7 on aggregate) at home to Liga MX champions, Toluca, in the second leg of the Concacaf Champions Cup Quarterfinal on Wednesday, April 15, 2026.
Arsenal XI vs Sporting CP – Predicted lineup and team news
Arsenal host Sporting CP tonight, aiming to clinch a place in the Champions League semi-finals.The Gunners hold a slender 1–0 aggregate lead after a resilient display in Lisbon last week. Mikel Arte...
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona (agg: 3-2): Diego Simeone's men lose on the night but reach Champions League semi-finals
Atletico Madrid reached the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 2016/17 after a 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona.
Apple Launches New All-in-One Apple Business Platform for Device Management, Email, and Customer...
Apple today launched its new all-in-one Apple Business platform, debuting the refreshed Apple Business web portal and accompanying app. Apple Business aggregates several of Apple's prior business-focused products, like Apple Business Essentials, Apple Business Manager, and Apple Business Connect. The service offers organizations a unified platform for managing devices, employees, communications, and customer engagement across the Apple ecosystem.
Heartflow sues cardiology AI rival Cleerly over alleged patent infringement
According to Heartflow, Cleerly's actions represent “one of the most egregious examples of piracy in the medical technology industry.” Cleerly commented on the lawsuit, defending the value and integrity of its products.
Scientists just discovered 5.6 million bees under a New York cemetery
The whopping bee aggregation is one of the largest and oldest ever recorded, according to a new study
‘Abbott Elementary’: Did Janine & Gregory Break Up?
Season 5 delivered a jaw-dropping twist in the episode, 'Trip.'
‘Abbott Elementary’: Did Janine & Gregory Break Up?
Season 5 delivered a jaw-dropping twist in the episode, 'Trip.'
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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