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AI needs science’s search history
“Actually, that’s where the gold is,” said Alasdair Russell, my graduate school friend who leads a pre-clinical genome editing group at Cambridge. He was talking about the winding road of science that is omitted from published papers. “When you’re discussing how to do the experiment, and why this way is better than another way, and what does the data really mean? I know what it shows, but what does it mean?” At RAAIS 2026, he described how his group has begun logging the twisting path of discovery as it happens, recording the verbal and written exchanges that normally disappear. Ideas become nodes in a living graph: they branch when a meeting produces two plausible experiments, merge when separate lines of evidence converge, and go dark when someone quietly stops pursuing them. In his implementation, one agent scores novelty, while another tries to learn “how scientists think and how they navigate through a complex world of data,” so that high-potential nodes can trigger deeper investigation. As frontier AI labs deploy agents toward scientific discovery, giving AI authentic scientific taste remains a trillion-dollar dilemma. The bottleneck is that the record we have kept for centuries of science might be insufficient to get us there. The experiments that never make the paper Peter Medawar, 1960 Nobel laureate and “father of transplantation,” asked in 1963 whether the scientific paper was a fraud, and answered yes: the form of the paper misrepresents the thinking that produced it. Sixty years on, the diagnosis is unchanged. A paper presents a clean progression from hypothesis to result to conclusion. Lost along the way are the unconventional theories, the abandoned or unaffordable methods, and the underwhelming and inconclusive data. It reads like a browser history with every dead end deleted: the ten open tabs, the four rephrased queries, the wrong turn down a subforum. All scrubbed, leaving one clean path from question to answer as the canonical path. What has changed since then is that the discarded material is now worth something. No high-impact journal wants these artifacts, but raw trial and error is the most likely source of the training data required to develop scientific intuition, or what researchers call taste. Earlier attempts to capture the discards were motivated by scientific integrity. The Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine launched in 2002 to publish rigorous studies that disputed established models or exposed ineffective treatments. Its archive preserved negative conclusions after they had become papers, rather than the live alternatives and arguments that produced them. BioMed Central closed it in 2017, saying the mission had been served now that other journals publish null results. A less generous reading is that in fifteen years it published around 200 papers because almost nobody wants to read a negative result, let alone write one up when it will not count toward academic tenure. AI models are different. Even an uninteresting negative result can be useful, provided it is labeled. Earlier this year, Anthropic put a version of this to the test. The company pulled 129 decision points from real Claude Code sessions between January and March 2026, showed models the work up to a human detour, and asked what should happen next. Claude Mythos Preview beat the human choice 64% of the time, while Opus 4.5 managed 51%. The comparison was tilted toward the models because Anthropic deliberately chose moments where the human decision had room for improvement. On 127 further scenarios where the human action was already strong, the models improved on it only about 20% of the time. The study was possible because Anthropic’s researchers work inside a tool that logs by default. The reasoning, detours and outcome are produced in the same working environment. Biology has no equivalent. Its reasoning happens in hallways, at benches, in Slack threads and on whiteboards, while the outcome arrives weeks later somewhere else. The record has to emerge from the work itself. Ask scientists to reconstruct it afterwards and we’ll create another polished account. Subscribe A log is not a label Before any of this becomes training data, a negative result has to say what failed. The first paper published in the Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine examined 234 negative studies across five leading medical journals. Only 30% discussed statistical power, and half clearly defined a primary outcome. Tell a model an experiment failed, without telling it whether the assay was underpowered, a reagent had degraded, or the hypothesis was simply wrong, and it will learn noise with confidence. Decision histories have a second missing label too. When a lab considers five experiments and runs one, only the chosen branch returns an outcome. The other four are experimental counterfactuals. Researchers call this the selective labels problem: the data reveal results only for the actions someone chose to take. Such a record can teach a model to imitate a lab’s taste, but it cannot establish that the taste was good. It also smuggles local constraints into general lessons. A lab that never ran cryo-EM because it did not own a microscope teaches a model that cryo-EM is rarely the right call. Alasdair’s nodes preserve the candidate set, which is the necessary first step. To be useful, each decision record needs six fields: The evidence available at that moment, and nothing that arrived later. The candidates considered, including the ones dismissed in a sentence. For each candidate: the expected result, the confidence attached to it, and the cost in time and money. The route chosen, and the reason. What happened next. How the evidence changed the scientist’s view. These must be timestamped before the outcome, because hindsight turns uncertainty into inevitability. Disagreement also has to survive. Averaging three scientists into one clean rationale reproduces exactly the information loss we are trying to fix. But there is an obvious failure mode here. Once decisions are logged and scored, people log for the record post-facto. Anyone who has watched an electronic lab notebook fill up with retrospective tidying knows how quickly a research tool becomes a compliance exercise. A record that costs a scientist ten minutes of honest reflection per decision is worth far more than one that costs an hour of performance. A publication initiative called Registered Reports offers a useful starting point. Here, researchers submit their rationale, methods and analysis plan for peer review before the data exist, and the journal commits in principle to publish if they follow the approved plan. Nature has now expanded the format across every field it covers. This approach to paper writing timestamps intent before the outcome, but it freezes one plan. A useful search history must also preserve how the plan changed, which alternatives were rejected, when, and on what evidence. Subscribe Run the runner-up Autonomous labs show what happens when decisions and outcomes are connected in a loop. Liverpool’s mobile robotic chemist ran 688 experiments over eight days in a ten-variable formulation space. A batched Bayesian search used each result to choose the next experiments and found photocatalyst mixtures six times more active than the starting formulations. Every completed experiment changed what the system did next. The robot optimized within a goal and search space that humans had already chosen. It did not decide which scientific question mattered. So what this work demonstrates is narrower, but still useful: a search history pays off when the options return standardized outcomes quickly. Open-ended biology is harder because branches can take weeks and the discarded alternatives may never be run. Some exploration therefore has to be bought. Where two branches are plausible and the stakes justify the cost, a lab should sometimes run the runner-up. Otherwise the record captures what today’s scientists usually chose and stays silent on what they systematically overlooked. A funder could ring-fence a small fraction of a grant for the branch not taken, provided that the decision record and the outcome are both deposited. That costs money, but so does having every lab rediscover the same abandoned path. Test whether taste transfers When it comes time to evaluate if our new AI system exhibits taste, the comparison should run across laboratories and fields. At selected decision points in a live research campaign, we should freeze the six fields: the evidence, the candidates, expected results, confidence, costs and the choice made. Experts then rank the options before the outcomes are known, and those outcomes are checked independently later. We could give models one of two diets - papers alone, or papers plus decision histories - and ask them to rank the next experiment on unfamiliar projects. Then, we score information gained per dollar and week, calibration, and how quickly weak branches are abandoned. If histories improve choices only inside the lab that produced them, they amount to useful organizational memory. If they improve choices on unfamiliar problems elsewhere, Alasdair’s group will have captured something science has never managed to write down: a transferable record of taste. Until that happens, a scientific search history is a promising record, not yet a training set.
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Asia-Pacific parliamentarians urge bolder action for universal health coverage, climate resilience and responsible AI
Parliamentarians representing 16 countries from across the Asia-Pacific region concluded the Ninth Meeting of the Asia-Pacific Parliamentarian Forum on Global Health (APPFGH) today, reaffirming their key role in advancing universal health coverage (UHC) amid the risks and opportunities posed by AI and climate change. In adopting the Phnom Penh Communiqué, parliamentarians urged fellow legislators regionwide to strengthen sustainable financing for UHC to widen access to health for all, including the most vulnerable populations; promote responsible governance of AI amid ethical concerns over this fast-evolving technology; and build climate-resilient health systems to anticipate and respond to mounting pressures ranging from rising sea levels in coastal areas to air pollution and other environmental degradation.The National Assembly of Cambodia, with support from Cambodia’s Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO), hosted the Forum in Phnom Penh from 11 to 13 August 2026 – the first time the Forum has convened in a Mekong country.Parliamentarians urge action to close gaps in accessIn the Communiqué, parliamentarians recognized that at-risk and marginalized groups are the ones most severely affected by gaps in access to health services. These groups include people living in poverty, women and children, persons with disabilities, older people, migrants, refugees, and those in rural, remote or island communities. The Communiqué urges fellow parliamentarians and policy-makers to advocate for laws and policies that support sustainable financing to protect people from financial hardship, with a focus on primary health care, prevention and equity. "The Communiqué is a call to action. It sets out ambitious, concrete measures that deliver meaningful impact on the ground. We are all accountable for advancing universal health coverage and translating our commitments into tangible results. Cambodia is fully committed to advancing UHC, including the promotion of ‘healthy people, prosperous country’ campaign,” said Samdech Maha Rathsapheathika Thipadei Khuon Sudary, President of the National Assembly of the Kingdom of Cambodia.His Excellency Professor Chheang Ra, Minister of Health of the Kingdom of Cambodia, highlighted the need for collaboration beyond the health sector. “Universal health coverage cannot be achieved by the Ministry of Health alone. It requires support, particularly from parliamentarians, across political, legislative, financial, social protection, education, infrastructure, and environmental domains. While each country follows its own path, one factor is universally critical for success: strong governance and leadership. We all believe in this principle, and in our respective political roles, we remain committed to strengthening these key success factors to ensure that no one is left behind.”Promoting responsible AI adoption Parliamentarians acknowledged that, while AI has already demonstrated its ability to improve access to health services and support delivery, careful and ethical governance is necessary to safeguard quality, safety, privacy and public trust. This underscores the importance of parliamentarians in promoting legal and regulatory frameworks addressing liability, records ownership and data governance, while embracing innovation that protects ethical practice.“Without strong governance, safeguards for privacy and data security, sustainable financing, and attention to those most at risk of exclusion, new technologies may widen existing gaps instead of closing them. This is why parliamentarians matter. We pass laws. We approve budgets. We scrutinize government action. We represent communities. We can ask whether health services are reaching rural, remote, ageing, poor, and marginalized populations. We can ask whether innovation is being guided by equity, evidence, and ethics,” said Hon. Man Hee Lee, President of the Asia-Pacific Parliamentarian Forum on Global Health.Building climate-resilient health systemsParliamentarians also reiterated that the climate crisis is a direct threat to people’s health and to achieving UHC more broadly, deepening the same gaps in access already faced by at-risk and marginalized communities. They recognized the need for WHO Member States to ensure sufficient national appropriations and oversight, and for parliamentarians to raise awareness in their constituencies and mobilize local action in building climate-resilient and sustainable health systems.“Universal health coverage, climate change and AI cannot be addressed in isolation. The same communities struggling to access health services today are often the ones most exposed to climate shocks, and most in need of the opportunities AI can offer if this technology is governed responsibly,” said Dr Saia Ma’u Piukala, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. “Having served previously in this Forum myself as a parliamentarian from Tonga, I recognize how the Phnom Penh Communiqué reflects the shared resolve of legislators across the Asia-Pacific region: the laws parliamentarians pass and the budgets they approve help ensure this progress reaches the people who need it most.”As the Forum drew to a close, delegates reflected on what they would carry back to their own parliaments and constituencies.“I wish to share three points here worth carrying home from Phnom Penh: we need to invest in primary health care as the foundation of coverage; we need to remove the barriers that keep people from care, whether financial, geographic or social; and we need to build systems that are inclusive by design, protecting those most at risk of being left behind,” added Hon. Ouch Borith, First Vice-President of the Senate of the Kingdom of Cambodia.###Notes for editors:The Asia-Pacific Parliamentarian Forum on Global Health (APPFGH) is a platform for parliamentarians to exchange ideas, build political will, strengthen capacity and foster collaboration towards sustainable health action. This was the ninth meeting of the APPFGH, with the theme “Universal Health Coverage in the era of Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence”. Target 3.8 of the Sustainable Development Goals calls on countries to achieve universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health services, and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all. In the Western Pacific, UHC service coverage index (SDG 3.8.1) rose from 63 in 2000 to 81 in 2023 (figures include Indonesia), and roughly one in four people in the Western Pacific have experienced financial hardship (SDG 3.8.2). Progress towards UHC in the Asia-Pacific region remains uneven, with hundreds of millions of people still lacking access to essential health services or facing financial hardship due to health-related expenses. Strengthening the role of parliaments – through legislation, financing and oversight – is central to closing this gap and accelerating progress towards UHC across the region.Parliamentarians participating in APPFGH in Cambodia this week include: Hon. Pehin Dato Adanan YUSOF, Brunei Darussalam; Hon. Rosmawatty ABDUL MUMIN, Brunei Darussalam; Hon. LORK Kheng, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. YOS Phanita, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. KHOUN Khundy, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. HENG Halim, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. KHOENG Noupheap, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. SENG Nhak, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. LY Sukry, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. NHOEURN Raden, Kingdom of Cambodia; Hon. Dr Ratu Atonio LALABALAVU, Republic of Fiji; Hon. Vijay NATH, Republic of Fiji; Hon. Man Hee LEE, Republic of Korea; Hon. Dr Jiho CHA, Republic of Korea; Hon. Jonghun BAEK, Republic of Korea; Hon. Youngsuk SEO, Republic of Korea; Hon. Dr Phayvanh KEOPASEUTH, Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Hon. Suhaizan Bin KAIAT, Malaysia; Hon. Dr Perpetua KONMAN, Federated States of Micronesia; Hon. Ganmaa DAVAASAMBUU, Mongolia; Hon. Charmaine SCOTTY, Republic of Naoero; Hon. Vincent Ambance KUMURA, Papua New Guinea; Hon. Dr Edwin CRUZADO, Republic of the Philippines; Hon. AUUAPAAU Mulipola Aloitafua Mulipola, Samoa; Hon. ASIATA TAVUI Tafu Salevao, Samoa; Hon. Dr Alani Petelo TANGITAU, Tonga; Hon. Paul PAOLO, Republic of Vanuatu; Hon. Franklyn Ezra WILLIAM, Republic of Vanuatu.For more information, contact: WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific: wprocom@who.int National Assembly of the Kingdom of Cambodia (International Relations Department): ir.nacambodia@gmail.com
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How the Democratic establishment beat the odds in Wisconsin
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Wharton Shares Analysis of Connecticut’s Political Future
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Small Business Spotlight: Specialty dental practice takes root on Market St.
WHAT MADE YOU WANT TO OPEN BLUE HERON ROOT CANAL SPECIALISTS? OWNER SARAH ERMOSHKIN: “I’ve always been an entrepreneur at heart. When I was 23 years old, I owned a cafe in Seattle, where I even fought to oppose oppressive sales taxes on espresso drinks. After selling that business, I got married and started a family. Once my children were in school, I attended dental school through the Navy Health Professions Scholarship Program (HPSP), which covered my tuition and provided a stipend. From the beginning, my goal was to eventually own my own practice after completing my military service. The work I do is incredibly rewarding and being able to create an environment that puts patients first while helping employees grow professionally makes every day as a business owner meaningful.” WHAT DOES YOUR BUSINESS PROVIDE? ERMOSHKIN: “Endodontists are often called ‘pain doctors’ because our primary mission is to relieve pain and save natural teeth. We specialize in root canal therapy, retreatment of nonhealing root canals, treatment of root resorption, apicoectomies – microsurgical root-end procedures – and vital pulp therapy for children. Our goal is to preserve teeth that might otherwise need to be extracted and replaced with implants. Saving a patient’s natural tooth is almost always the best long-term solution for their oral health.” HOW DOES YOUR MILITARY TRAINING HELP YOUR BUSINESS? ERMOSHKIN: “My military service taught me how to lead, collaborate and make decisions under pressure. I worked closely with senior leadership while treating a large patient population and collaborating with specialists across multiple disciplines. During the COVID-19 pandemic, (I) served a dual role as Navy dentist and as the public affairs officer for Naval Health Clinic Annapolis, where I helped develop medical and dental communications for the midshipmen and support staff, while coordinating with the broader Navy Capital Region. We worked closely with other military treatment facilities to share best practices and deliver consistent public health messaging. Those leadership experiences continue to shape how I lead my team and serve our patients today.” WHAT CHALLENGES ARE YOU FACING RIGHT NOW IN YOUR BUSINESS? ERMOSHKIN: “One of our biggest challenges is overcoming the misinformation surrounding root canal treatment. Root canals are safe, effective and often the best way to relieve pain while preserving a natural tooth. Unfortunately, many people choose extraction because they believe it’s less expensive or because they’ve seen misleading information online. What they may not realize is that losing a tooth can lead to shifting teeth, changes in the way they bite and chew and significantly higher costs to restore their smile later.”
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The U.S. Healthcare System is Already Mostly Socialized
Now that Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for Michigan’s open Senate seat, the outcome of this crucial race will depend mainly on two things: Whether Republicans succeed in demonizing El-Sayed because he’s brown and a Muslim, and whether they succeed in demonizing him as a left-wing radical. I will defer for the now the question of whether bigotry will be effective this year, although I will address it another day. What I want to address instead is El-Sayed’s signature issue — healthcare. Yes, El-Sayed advocates Medicare for All, a position the usual suspects denounce as “socialism.” I will get to the politics of his stance soon. Today, however, I want to talk about the substance. We should be clear that El-Sayed doesn’t even call himself a socialist. On the contrary, he explicitly disavows the label, saying “I’m a capitalist who just knows about capitalism”. In fact, as I explained in a previous post, the policies that El-Sayed advocates qualify him as a social democrat, not a socialist. Still, El-Sayed advocates a system under which the government would pay almost all medical expenses. Isn’t that socialism? Well, if that is the criterion then much of U.S. healthcare is already socialist. In fact, the government’s role is so large that U.S. healthcare is better described as partially privatized socialism than as anything resembling a free market. Let’s start with the raw numbers on health insurance, which pays the bulk of Americans’ medical expenses. Americans receive health insurance either from private companies or from public programs, overwhelmingly Medicare and Medicaid. Here’s what the breakdown of coverage and spending between private and public looked like in 2024: While a majority of Americans with health insurance get it from private companies, well over 100 million of us are covered by government programs instead. And these government programs pay more total dollars for medical bills than the private insurers do. Why do government programs that cover a minority of the population account for a majority of health insurers’ outlays? Mainly because Medicare covers seniors, and we’re expensive. Also, while Medicaid covers many younger Americans, disabled and elderly beneficiaries account for most of its spending. Even by the raw numbers, then, U.S. health insurance looks as much public as private. But that understates the government’s role: Private health insurance in the U.S. is both highly regulated and heavily subsidized. This is obviously true for the insurance coverage purchased by tens of millions of Americans through the exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act. But employment-based health insurance, which covers 161 million Americans, is far more of a government creation than most people realize. For employment-based insurance exists largely because of huge implicit government subsidies that come with major strings attached. Here’s how that works. If your employer pays you $10,000, that’s taxable income. But if your employer pays $10,000 toward a company health insurance plan that meets certain criteria, it isn’t taxable. That’s a huge effective subsidy, running at more than $300 billion a year. Take that subsidy into account, along with the more than $100 billion per year spent subsidizing policies purchased under the ACA, as well as the outlays on Medicare and Medicaid, and net effect is that the government pays for more than two-thirds of Americans’ health insurance. Granted, there are strings attached. Roughly speaking, employment-based health plans can’t discriminate based on medical history — that is, they can’t deny coverage to employees with pre-existing conditions — and they also can’t offer the plans only to highly compensated employees — a health plan that is only for the C-suite is considered taxable income. So given the restrictions of the federal tax code, employer-based health insurance is a lot like Obamacare, which also prohibits discrimination based on medical history and provides subsidies to make insurance affordable to lower-paid workers. The fact is that virtually all of private healthcare insurance is already well under some form of government control through regulation and tax subsidies. How should we think about this system? First of all, is Medicare socialist? Don’t tell anyone, but the way Medicare operates — it covers every senior’s medical expenses, whatever they turn out to be, while being funded by taxes that depend on one’s income — could be summarized by the old Marxist slogan “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” And back in 1961, when Ronald Reagan was the face of a last-ditch effort by the American Medical Association to block the creation of Medicare, he denounced Medicare as “socialized medicine” and warned that it would destroy our freedom. In reality, American freedom survived until Jan. 20, 2025, while Medicare is immensely popular, with an 82 percent favorable rating in the most recent KFF survey. Medicaid, government health insurance for lower-income Americans, comes in at 73 percent. This is in sharp contrast to public views about private insurers, who are widely disliked if not hated and accused of denying essential care. Furthermore, if Medicare is socialism, then the whole U.S. health insurance system, with the government paying most of the bills and placing conditions on private insurers, is almost equally socialist. If you insist on calling any program the government pays for and regulates socialist, then U.S. healthcare would best be described as a partially privatized form of socialism. And one must ask, what is the point of the part that is privatized? Do private insurers add anything positive? Or are they simply parasites, skimming off money that could have been paying for care? The case for viewing insurers as parasites is strong. Many Medicare benefits are now delivered via Medicare Advantage, that is, plans paid for by the government but run through insurance companies. MedPAC, an independent advisory commission, estimates that last year Medicare Advantage plans were overpaid by $84 billion, thanks to practices such as “upcoding,” in which patients’ health problems are overstated to get larger sums from Medicare. Assessing the waste from employer-based insurance is harder, but most evidence suggests that private insurers have substantially higher administrative costs than Medicare does. Furthermore, the complexity of private insurance, with multiple payers all trying to deny care when they can, is a huge burden both on providers — doctors, nurses, and hospitals — and on patients. What do private insurers offer to compensate for these costs? One must go through intellectual contortions to avoid the conclusion that they are, in fact, parasites. Which brings me back to El-Sayed. In supporting Medicare for All, he’s basically calling for an end to the partial, parasitic privatization of a healthcare system that is already hugely dependent on public funding. When one looks at it that way, it’s not at all a radical proposal. Admittedly, the political lift requires overcoming the opposition to higher taxes to pay for Medicare for All. Political realism rather than economics was the reason I and many other progressives supported Obamacare, with all its complexities, rather than demanding an immediate move to Medicare for All. But the political calculus may very well have shifted since the 2000s, as Americans are fed up with a system of unaffordable premiums, rampant claim denials, and byzantine claim administration. Moreover, funding healthcare insurance through taxation would allow for a much more progressive distribution of the cost. That is, compared to the present system, middle-income households would pay less as high-income households would pay more. And the U.S. would stop wasting large sums on pointless administrative costs. So let’s be clear: El-Sayed’s healthcare platform is perfectly reasonable on the merits of cost, fairness and health efficacy. And with private insurers never more hated, while millions of Americans are losing their health insurance, 2026 may be its time. MUSICAL CODA
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Wisconsin’s Roller Coaster of a Democratic Primary Race for Governor Crashes to an End
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AbCellera women’s health data top ‘most aggressive upside scenario,’ putting Astellas and Bayer on notice
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Peptides talk is everywhere: But what does the science say?
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Abdul El-Sayed and Barack Obama spoke as Democrats seek to unify following heated Senate primary
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El-Sayed spoke with Obama as Michigan Democrats look to unite after a bitter Senate primary
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'Outsider' House primary winner sets sights on flipping longtime GOP seat back from Dems: 'Ready for a change'
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Obama and Abdul El-Sayed Spoke to Discuss Unity After Michigan Senate Primary
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Darline Graham has Donald Trump in her corner. Will it be enough to win her brother’s Senate seat?
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