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The science, instinct and hard work behind Roosters’ success
Enter your email address to get each Tribune edition sent to your inbox Subscribe There’s a fair bit of unseen work that goes into winning an NRL premiership, dating back many months - just ask Simon Jones. The Sydney Roosters Head of Performance, who hails from Southland, has been in the thick of it. He played a lead role in guiding the 2026 champions through a marathon campaign that ended with a grand final win over the Newcastle Knights. The Roosters had to navigate the lengthy round-robin competition, including the pre-season, before playing through all four weeks of the finals series. It was a demanding stretch that tested the players and the staff responsible for keeping them on the field. “It is a hell of a beast, mate, to be honest,” Jones told The Roar Podcast. “There’s such a great group of staff there that know what they’re doing, and the boys are pretty professional.” Jones believed the Roosters managed the physical demands well, pointing to the health of the squad throughout the campaign and the decision to rest a significant portion of the playing group in the final round of the regular season. That call, made by head coach Trent Robinson and his coaching staff, proved valuable as the Roosters entered the finals with some energy in reserve. “We did finish the season physically where we needed to be, and we’d sort of had a pretty healthy squad all year,” Jones said. “To the team that do that, mate, mission accomplished, really.” It is the sort of work that often goes unnoticed when the spotlight falls on the players scoring tries and making match-winning plays, but Jones knows the cumulative effect of those decisions can be significant over a long season. After a win over Penrith had helped establish them as premiership favourites, losses to the Wests Tigers and Dolphins were followed by a defeat to the Panthers in the opening week of the finals. Rather than panic, the club refocused to position itself to challenge for the title. “The Tigers’ performance was probably the only one where you’re really quite disappointed because it’s hard to get to the top of the competition,” Jones told The Roar Podcast. “We had proof that we could; we knew what we needed to do. We just had to get back to that.” For Jones, the answer was not necessarily a radical change to the programme. It was about executing the basics consistently, both on the field and in preparation. “We just do the basics better than anybody else,” he said. “Whether that is actually the way you play the game or how you’re preparing, it’s just be really consistent, do the basics really, really well.” Like many professional sports teams, the Roosters are entrenched in sports science and performance data. The club has access to a range of information, including players’ sleep, GPS metrics and neuromuscular scores, helping staff assess how individuals are coping with training and competition. “We are very science-backed, and some people would say data-driven, but it’s people first,” he said. “The reason you collect all this data is to try and be the best for that person.” Jones said the club was also prepared to reconsider testing methods if they were not generating useful discussions or helping staff make better decisions. In an environment where technology is continually evolving, he believes experience and gut instinct remain important. “The data is no good unless you have conversations,” he said. “When you strip it right back, mate, trust the gut still and obviously, you know, just doing the basics really, really well.” The return of halfback Sam Walker provided a further example of the importance of individual determination and the work of the club’s medical team. Walker underwent ankle surgery late in the regular season, with his premiership campaign appearing in doubt. However, he was determined to return for the preliminary final. Jones said Walker was back at the training ground three days after surgery, walking freely enough to surprise those around him. While the surgeon’s work was crucial, Jones credited the halfback’s mindset as a major factor in the remarkable turnaround. “He was quite clear with Robbo after he got the surgery that he was going to make it back for the prelim finals,” Jones said. The Roosters’ performance programme also sits within a wider club culture that Jones believes is central to their success. Each season, players develop their own team mantra through a lengthy process facilitated by Robinson. It provides principles that the squad can connect to its actions on the field. Rather than simply carrying over the previous year’s wording after a successful campaign, the club repeats the process because the players’ ownership of it is what gives it meaning. “When it’s led, player-owned and player-led, mate, it’s really powerful,” Jones said. Get more from Logan Savory in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app Jones joined the Roosters in 2024 and said the environment had evolved as experienced players departed and younger members of the squad took on greater responsibility. Maintaining continuity in the club’s culture and preparation had helped the group navigate those changes. The premiership was a significant achievement for Jones, who acknowledged how difficult it was to win the NRL’s ultimate prize. However, he is already looking at how the performance programme can improve. “There’s still things within my role and things that I’d like to help improve at the club,” he said. For Jones and his team, the challenge now is to review the season, refine their systems and prepare for another campaign. The celebrations may have followed a memorable title win, but the work behind the scenes never really stops. The Southland Tribune is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
Popular weight loss drugs linked to a surprising fingernail problem
Popular GLP-1 weight loss drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, have been linked to unexpectedly high rates of nail detachment, hair loss, and scalp inflammation, with some problems occurring several times more frequently among users. Researchers found that weight loss alone could not fully explain the differences, suggesting there may be more to these overlooked symptoms.
Will Titans Bench Cam Ward After Embarrassing Texans Loss?
Following a historically bad 0-5 start, Robert Saleh addresses the growing pressure to sideline his struggling quarterback while the franchise spirals toward a potential lost season.
Six catches for Wan'Dale Robinson
Titans WR Wan'Dale Robinson finishes Week 5 game with 53 yards
Rob Lowe's son Matthew marries in wedding officiated by Gwyneth Paltrow
Rob Lowe's eldest son is now a married man!
Kelly Clarkson claims she had a ‘Pretty Woman’ shopping moment, store responds
Kelly Clarkson claimed a sales associate looked at her ‘as if I couldn’t afford’ anything in the store, making her feel like Julia Roberts in ‘Pretty Woman.’ The next day, the store responded.
Scientists Discover Groundbreaking Clues to Tissue Regrowth and “Immortality” in the Ocean
Sea cucumber tissue kept growing for more than three years after removal, surviving in seawater teeming with microbes. Like Thing, the disembodied hand in The Addams Family, a severed piece of sea cucumber tissue kept living without the body it came from, prompting scientists to describe the animal as a “real-life zombie.” Weeks after being
Gwyneth Paltrow officiates star-studded wedding of Rob Lowe’s eldest son Matthew Lowe
Matthew and Emily Markus said “I do” in front of A-listers including Chris Pratt, Katy Perry, Zoe Saldaña, and more.
Gwyneth Paltrow officiates star-studded wedding of Rob Lowe’s son
Chad Lowe’s family made their first public appearance since the death of daughter Fiona to celebrate the wedding of Rob Lowe’s son, Matthew, and Emily Markus, which was officiated by Gwyneth Paltrow.
CBS projects another huge game for Bijan Robinson on SNF
CBS projects another huge game for Falcons RB Bijan Robinson on SNF
Berkeley engineer caught on video poisoning coworker before she suffered horrific health problems
The Guardian view on mental health: overdiagnosis is not the problem facing young people
Editorial: Parity of esteem with physical healthcare remains a distant prospect. Ministers must do more to tackle rising distress
Gary Neville amazed at 'staggering' Tottenham reveal that needs addressing
Gary Neville speaking on Sky Sports, with Roberto De Zerbi in a circular frame inset
Dodgers Remove Kim From NLCS Roster; Add Wrobleski
Prioritizing mound depth for a grueling seven-game stretch, Los Angeles Dodgers' Dave Roberts swaps an infielder for a left-handed pitcher.
Top Entertainment Stocks To Follow Today
Verizon Communications, Walt Disney, SEA, Spotify Technology, Roblox, GameStop, and Autodesk are the seven Entertainment stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat's stock screener tool. Entertainment stocks are shares of publicly traded companies involved in producing, distributing, or deliver
Dodgers NLCS roster: Justin Wrobleski added as 13th pitcher
The Dodgers announced their roster for the National League Championship Series, which will include 13 pitchers and 13 position players against the Milwaukee Brewers. Justin Wrobleski is the extra bulk pitcher for this round, after the Dodgers carried 12 pitchers during the Division Series against the Atlanta Braves. “I think that length, having a guy […]
Rob Bonta explains why he should be reelected Attorney General
As California Attorney General Rob Bonta seeks reelection, he emphasized his effort to protecting Californians’ rights, address affordability, and improve public safety during his time in office in an interview on California Politics 360.
What Will the Lineup Look Like When Connor Brown Returns?
A lot of depth is a good problem to have, but Sheldon Keefe is still going to have tos hake it out with Connor Brown’s return.
Mikel Arteta admits to selection dilemma
Mikel Arteta has admitted that Mikel Merino and Martin Odegaard gave him a selection problem over the weekend, having both played so well over the international break.Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty...
Mad Science owner brings spooky Halloween science experiments to life
Rob Diaz from Mad Science of NYC & Westchester joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to demonstrate spooky Halloween science experiments, including bubbling dry ice potions and a giant fog explosion.
Who gets to be a genius? Matilda effect and the women missing from science
Albert Einstein is probably the most quoted scientist in the world, and among the lines most popularly credited to him is one he almost certainly never said.
Harrison: Shad White blames Bennie Thompson for Delta’s problems. Is he right?
White, who is expected to run for governor in 2027, has been particularly vocal in the call to unseat Thompson.
My favorite California hidden gem has great wine without Napa prices
Paso Robles, on California's central coast, has delicious food, incredible wine, and the sweetest locals. It's also much more affordable than Napa.
Commanders have a safety problem vs Giants
The Commanders have a numbers issue at safety against the Giants. Could a former starter help them out?
The problem with AI-upscaled monstrosities isn't the AI
The problem with AI-upscaled monstrosities isn't the AI
Ariel Roblin: Political differences should never diminish our concern for one another's safety
Normally, we like to focus our editorials on local or state issues – as federal issues tend to be immediately divisive. But this one hit Californians hard.
Envy on the ballot
GAWD, I hate the rich. The top hats. The monocles. The dinner jackets. The way they twirl their mustaches while evicting orphans. Before we drag them into the public square, though, we should probably define “rich.” Amendment 87, the temporary “graduated” income tax, defines rich as earning $500,000 a year. And yes, it is temporary. […]
Bayern's goalkeeper dilemma after Neuer howler for the record books
Manuel Neuer could have done without this record in his storied career but he now owns the unwanted distinction of conceding the fastest goal in Bundesliga history. To make matters worse, it was a howler from the veteran Bayern Munich goalkeeper himself that allowed Augsburg's Robin Fellhauer to score the opening goal in their 2-2 draw after 8.
Dale Vince’s latest idea: No manager at Forest Green Rovers
Dale Vince, the owner of Forest Green Rovers, has said there is no manager vacancy at the club following Robbie Savage’s departure, but if there were he would not recruit a “big ego”.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Recommends Science-Based Thresholds to Target Dangerous Enhanced Kratom Products
Kratom products credit: CDPH DEA takes action based on updated recommendation from HHS October 11, 2026 - WASHINGTON - On Friday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services relesed the following: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) provided a new recommendation to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) that establishes science-based thresholds for 7-hydroxymitragynine (7-OH) and mitragynine pseudoindoxyl (MGPI), potent opioid compounds associated with products marketed as kratom. The Department of Justice today announced that DEA issued new Notices of Intent reflecting HHS’ updated scientific analysis and recommendations, including a new Notice of Intent for 7-OH and MGPI incorporating HHS’ recommended concentration and ratio thresholds. Following a review of available scientific data and comments, HHS Assistant Secretary for Health Admiral Brian Christine, M.D., recommended that DEA use concentration or ratio-based thresholds to determine which products containing 7-OH and MGPI are subject to Schedule I control for purposes of temporary scheduling of these substances under the Controlled Substances Act. The recommendation is designed to target concentrated or chemically altered products while distinguishing them from natural botanical kratom products, which may contain trace amounts of 7-OH and MGPI. “We are drawing a clear line between natural kratom and dangerous, enhanced opioid products,” said HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. “We listened to the public, followed the science, and developed a clear recommended threshold for temporary scheduling that targets concentrated 7-OH and MGPI without sweeping natural botanical kratom into Schedule I. The Trump Administration will continue taking decisive action against dangerous products that fuel addiction while making sure our policies are grounded in rigorous science.” Under the recommendation, 7-OH and MGPI would be controlled in Schedule I for purposes of temporary scheduling when either substance alone, or their combined amount when both are present: Exceeds 1 milligram per gram in solid powders, encapsulated material, or other solid forms, or exceeds 1 milligram per milliliter in liquid preparations; or When the mass of mitragynine present divided by the mass of 7-OH, or MGPI, or the combined amount of 7-OH and MGPI if both present, is less than 100. The ratio-based approach reflects the alkaloid composition of natural kratom products and provides a way to identify products intentionally enhanced or concentrated with 7-OH or MGPI. Available scientific data indicate that 7-OH occurs naturally in botanical kratom at relatively low or trace levels, while some evidence reviewed by FDA suggests MGPI may also occur at trace levels in some natural or kratom-derived products. FDA's scientific review found that 7-OH is substantially more potent than morphine in preclinical studies, with available data indicating approximately two to nine times greater potency depending on the study. FDA also identified evidence supporting a meaningful risk of opioid-like physical dependence and withdrawal from MGPI. “Our recommendation gives DEA a scientifically supportable framework to distinguish natural botanical kratom from products that have been concentrated or manipulated to deliver dangerous levels of potent opioid compounds,” said Assistant Secretary for Health Admiral Brian Christine, M.D. “This approach allows us to focus on the products that pose the greatest threat to public health.” In July 2025, following an FDA scientific and medical evaluation, HHS recommended that 7-OH above a specified threshold be placed in Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act. In July 2026, DEA announced its intent to temporarily schedule 7-OH above a specified threshold, and HHS simultaneously sought public comment on the proposed threshold. DEA subsequently temporarily placed MGPI and two synthetic 7-OH derivatives, MGM-15 and MGM-16, in Schedule I. Since then, questions have emerged about how scheduling could affect natural botanical kratom products potentially containing trace amounts of MGPI. The new HHS recommendation responds to those concerns by providing DEA with a more precise threshold based on both the concentration of 7-OH and MGPI and their relationship to mitragynine, the predominant alkaloid in kratom. HHS and FDA will continue working with DEA to protect Americans from dangerous concentrated and synthetic opioid products while ensuring federal policy is grounded in the best available science. Source: HHS
How do you teach children to handle money?
Dear Liz: My daughter (51) blames me (74) almost daily for her financial problems.
Jerome ‘Big Duck’ Smith had a vision for New Orleans' youth. This group wants to bring it back.
Robert Stanley’s friends all tell him: He's got big shoes to fill.
David Oyelowo brings revamped ‘Treasure Island’ to a new generation
“Treasure Island,” perhaps Robert Louis Stevenson’s most celebrated tale, premieres tonight, on MGM+ with the first of its 6-episode reinvention of the classic.
Franciscan Health, Diocese of Gary partner for Respect Life celebration
DYER, Ind. – More than 600 Catholic school students from across Northwest Indiana gathered at Franciscan Health Dyer last week for the 33rd annual Respect Life Celebration. The event, co-hosted by Franciscan Health and the Diocese of Gary during Respect Life Month, aims to celebrate life at all stages with the goal of drawing attention to the lives lost to abortion. The theme for this year’s Respect Life Month is “Mary, Mother of Life.” The Most Rev. Bishop Robert J. McClory of the Diocese of Gary presided over the service. Bishop McClory used the analogy of pumpkin farming
CVS Health (CVS) Opens New Pharmacy Sites As Undervalued Narrative Holds
CVS Health (CVS) is expanding its pharmacy-focused format by opening nearly 20 smaller neighborhood locations across the US in 2026, including a new Roxbury site in the Boston area. Recent headlines around CVS Health have mixed signals for investors, with Medicare Advantage star rating setbacks and a legal probe weighing on sentiment, while the extended Cardinal Health distribution deal and a reaffirmed dividend provide a steadier backdrop. Even after a one-day share price decline of 1.87%...
Trump’s DOJ probes major TV networks over response to White House ban of CNN
The Justice Department is investigating the five major US TV networks for possible antitrust violations, opening yet another front in the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against the press.
Justice Department probes TV networks over Trump pool boycott
The Justice Department is investigating ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and Fox News over their joint boycott of White House coverage. The boycott came after The White House pulled credentials from CNN, MS NOW and Politico.
Florida HC Jon Sumrall Admits Gators Have Serious Problem Brewing
After a humiliating blowout at The Swamp, Jon Sumrall faces a crisis as recurring defensive lapses and stagnant quarterback play threaten to derail the Gators' once-promising season.
PlayStation Hardware Sales Hit Lowest Point Since 2013 in US, and PS5's Price Is the Problem
Average selling price almost an eye-watering $600
FCC considers allowing more political robocalls before midterms, including those created with AI
The Federal Communications Commission is considering a request to loosen rules on political robocalls, including those with AI-generated voices.
FCC considers allowing more political robocalls before midterms, including those created with AI
The Federal Communications Commission is considering a request to loosen rules on political robocalls, including those with AI-generated voices.
FCC considers allowing more political robocalls before midterms, including those created with AI
The Federal Communications Commission is considering a request to loosen rules on political robocalls, including those with AI-generated voices.
FCC considers allowing more political robocalls before midterms, including those created with AI
The Federal Communications Commission is considering a request to loosen rules on political robocalls, including those with AI-generated voices.
Early-onset Alzheimer's disease shows different warning signs from established risk factors
A study by the University of Oulu and the University of Eastern Finland found that people who developed Alzheimer's disease before the age of 65 accumulated a wide range of health problems, particularly ...
Robins' delight as his 10-man Stoke beat Bolton
Stoke City manager Mark Robins spoke to BBC Radio Stoke after their 10 men won 2-1 at Bolton to climb to fourth in the Championship.
USMNT defender Robinson misses Fulham match with ankle injury
Being your authentic self is serious work, founders say; why women need to be in the business of saying ‘no’
In a world that’s so focused on AI, now’s the time for entrepreneurs to lean into the authentic quirks that make their businesses different, said Colleen Robertson, encouraging women to “be OK doing something crazy and turning people’s heads.”
Why Bette Davis didn’t look at herself in the mirror for a year (exclusive)
After massive health problems in the 1980s, Hollywood legend Bette Davis didn’t look at herself in the mirror for a year — that is, until Robert Wagner came over.
‘Primetime’ reveals the story behind ‘To Catch a Predator’
Lance Oppenheim’s A24 film goes behind the scenes of the sting house. FSU and TSC students react to Robert Pattinson’s Chris Hansen.
Brian Schottenheimer Must Answer for More Than the Offense
Brian Schottenheimer faces scrutiny after the Cowboys’ loss to Tampa Bay exposed problems that extend beyond the offense and into his entire team.
According to Science, People Who Use Emojis in Texts Have Higher Emotional Intelligence
You probably do it without thinking. A thumbs-up after confirming dinner plans, a laughing face to soften a sarcastic remark, a heart slipped into a goodnight message. Emojis have become so woven into the way we text that most of us never stop to wonder what those tiny icons actually say about us. But researchers...
Letters: Chargers have a problem. Is it Justin Herbert?
Readers of the Los Angeles Times Sports section give their thoughts on the winless Chargers, USC and Lincoln Riley, the Dodgers and more.
Juventus and Roma are interested in new Italy star
Issa Doumbia has emerged as a potential transfer target for Juventus after receiving his first call-up to the Italian national team under Roberto Mancini during the September and October international...
A clock change dilemma pits science vs. politics
Some politicians want permanent daylight saving time, but a chorus of scientists say that's the wrong way to fix the seasonal time change problem.
A clock change dilemma pits science vs. politics
Some politicians want permanent daylight saving time, but a chorus of scientists say that's the wrong way to fix the seasonal time change problem.
China unveils smart robot designed to help farmers breed better strains of wheat
The prototype device was designed to use a ‘vast amount of breeder experience’ when assessing crops for their breeding potential.
Inside the Naked Cowboy's Times Square business, expenses, and routine
Robert John Burck performs as the Naked Cowboy in Times Square. He breaks down the costs, income, and routine that keep his unique career going.
With \'Odyssey,\' \'Primetime,\' \'The Drama,\' Robert Pattinson has had a heck of a year [Unscripted]
It's really easy for me to get burnt out on seeing the same few actors time and time again on the big screen.
Watch: Inside Our $22K Sports Betting Experiment
What happens when you bet like a problem gambler on DraftKings and FanDuel? Reporter Jake Pearson spent 10 weeks on the apps to find out.
Can China’s dancing robots swing some new business partners in Africa?
Performances are about marketing China as a technology partner, analysts say, but it is not clear if they will translate into factory deals.
Tottenham to fly to Marbella for team bonding
Tottenham manager Roberto De Zerbi to take his squad to Marbella for team-bonding training camp after clash against Manchester United
Tottenham XI vs Manchester United – Predicted lineup and team news
Tottenham Hotspur go to Old Trafford on Saturday evening still waiting for a first Premier League win, with Roberto De Zerbi’s side bottom on two points.Spurs have won five and lost one of their las...
Former NC State Sports Medicine Director faces Wake County Judge in sexual abuse case
Former NC State Sports Medicine Director Robert Murphy appeared in Wake County court Friday on 32 charges related to sexual abuse allegations involving former student-athletes.
Packers have a major problem heading into Bears showdown
The Green Bay Packers need to be on their game going into the Chicago Bears showdown.
State Department watchdog probing Kimberly Guilfoyle amid alleged $100,000 demand
The department’s Office of the Inspector General is also investigating the U.S. Embassy in Greece, two people familiar with the probe confirmed to NBC News.
Pete Davidson slammed female influencers. ‘Today’ hosts point out one big problem
During an interview with Variety, Davidson questioned the profession of women who post “get ready with me” videos.
Jessica Chastain on crafting creepy ‘Other Mommy’ and reaction to her look
Oscar winner Jessica Chastain got ‘a lot of texts’ after the first trailer for ‘Other Mommy’ — she tells EW about the reaction to it, how she crafted the role, and what she loves most about the Rob Savage movie.
Science fiction vs. reality: CTOs assess fears of AI doom
Tech leaders from Trulioo, ModelOp, Reality Defender, and Indigo BioAutomation examine how real the cautions from speculative stories might be.
New York Plans Stronger Sports Betting Regulation to Curb Gambling Addiction
The New York State Gaming Commission announced plans to require online sportsbooks to beef up user protections. The move follows reporting by ProPublica and others that raised questions about how apps like DraftKings treat problem gamblers.
Netflix’s Summer of Bummer
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Today, I’ve got a guest post from longtime friend of the newsletter, Brandon Katz. I’ve been trying to find time all summer to look at Netflix’s straight-to-streaming film slate, but between a pre-planned trip and Nielsen moving up their streaming data timeline, I’ve been swamped. So I reached out to Brandon, one of my favorite fellow analysts, to write about it. And I feel like he captured the tone and data focus of the newsletter perfectly. You can connect with Brandon on LinkedIn and Twitter. Enjoy! Don’t worry, folks. You’re in safe hands with me. To ease any anxieties about an interloper in ESG’s domain, I’ll start by stealing one of his best framing devices: headlines. Box office flops are covered in the same way the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles eye pizza: with cartoonish insatiability. I would know. I’m a former reporter who wrote nearly identical headlines: Yet, intentionally or not, streaming misses get treated with kids gloves, filtered through a rosy lens: In the last six years, U.S. streaming viewership has become nearly as transparent as the box office, but the data often arrives weeks later, in a number of less intuitive metrics, and with nary an official budget to be found. This plays into the Wall Street-whispering narratives major streamers have been cultivating for years. They get a pass in a way that theatrical studios simply don’t. Subscribe Netflix’s Summer Slate Not a single Netflix original film released between May and August this year opened above 20 million U.S. TV hours, per Nielsen. That benchmark usually serves as the EntStrategyGuy’s floor for a streaming hit on Netflix. None of these films enjoyed a hit-cementing single week of 20-plus million hours during their runs. Netflix’s two best films were true crime docs, Maternal Instinct (16.5 million hours) and The Crash (19.7 million), the best overall week for a film this summer. Great for most other streamers, but not necessarily what we’re used to seeing from Netflix. For an overly-dramatic comparison, Happy Gilmore 2 opened last summer to around 47 million hours (celebrity cameos, baby!). Zooming out, the picture looks even worse. In 2026, Netflix’s five biggest scripted summer films posted the lowest average (28.6 million hours) and median (28.8 million hours) eight-week viewership totals of the past four years. Now, it’s unrealistic and unfair to expect Netflix to deliver a _KPop Demon Hunters-_sized hit every year. But it’s also not ideal to see the size of their hits shrinking over the last few summers. Let’s quickly run through some of the notable summer misses. Jennifer Lopez and Brett Goldstein’s perfectly fine romcom, Office Romance, fell off the charts after 20 million hours in its first two weeks. Top films usually last for four-plus weeks. Starry titles ideally don’t decay that fast either. Homegrown star Millie Bobby Brown couldn’t prevent the snappy Enola Holmes franchise from diminishing returns. At 14.3 million U.S. hours, the third film posted roughly half of what the first two films did in their first two weeks. What’s on Netflix calculated that per-day global views were down nearly 60% from the second movie. The Whisper Man did okay with more than 36 million hours over its first four weeks. But I expected a little more juice from a film featuring Robert De Niro, Michelle Monaghan, and Adam Scott. Kevin Hart’s Ladies First collected just 11.2 million hours total across two weeks. That’s a big miss for one of Netflix’s go-to stars. Plopping into the same bucket are Sunny Sandler’s Don’t Say Good Luck (10.3 million in two weeks) and John Cena’s Little Brother (17.5 million). Meanwhile, English-language originals Color Book (June 19), In the Hand of Dante (June 24) and Heartstopper Forever (July 17) never sniffed Nielsen’s Top 10 at all, despite needing only 2 to 5 million hours to land in the top ten most weeks. (By my count, eleven English-language scripted original films released between May and August did chart). It’s only fair to mention that Swapped (1-May) posted nearly 42 million U.S. hours over five weeks (the longest Netflix original run this summer) and is currently their eighth most-watched English-language film ever worldwide. Remarkably Bright Creatures (37 million, 4 weeks) and Voicemails for Isabelle (27 million, 4 weeks) weren’t bombs either. Still, overall, I think it’s fair to say this was a quieter summer season than we’re used to seeing from the market-leader. You might not realize that given the language commonly used in public analysis. The Twist Despite the starkly black-and-white tone of the coverage, here’s the twist: when many box office bombs arrive on streaming, their viewership looks a whole lot like many of Netflix’s supposedly successful summer releases. Hmm, where have we heard that one before? Masters of the Universe topped out at $65 million stateside against a $170 million budget_._ I’ll admit, Skeletor ripping sleeveless curls as a gym bro and bodyslamming Adam’s co-workers was funny. But, much to the chagrin of my bank account, my laughter doesn’t launch franchises. Yet the He-Man reboot opened to 19.6 million hours (from a Wednesday five-day opening instead of just one weekend), on par with Hoppers on Disney+ (19.4 million). It put up nearly 47 million hours over its first six weeks, bigger than all of Netflix’s summer releases. Pretty darn healthy and likely to land among the 25 most-watched movies on streaming this year. Sticking with Amazon, The Sheep Detectives just barely broke even at the box office with $133 million worldwide (and only $66 million domestic). I never expected cloven-hooved, cud-chewing mammals to be able to bring me to tears. Yet that’s exactly how I found myself at the end of this surprisingly affecting movie (#NoShame). It was likely the unexpected quality in a family-friendly film that powered its streaming over-performance. Sheep Detectives delivered a solid run for Prime video netting 26.2 million hours! How about franchise IP? Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu had the lowest opening ($81 million) and lowest-grossing Disney-era live-action Star Wars film ($178 million domestic). One day before release, its Heat score (19.8%)—audiences who list their interest as a 7/7—fell behind blockbusters Wicked (21%), Superman (23%), Fantastic Four: First Steps (23%), Michael (23%), Toy Story 5 (26%) and Avatar: Fire and Ash (27%), according to Greenlight Analytics. The urgent enthusiasm just wasn’t there. On streaming, Mando opened to weeks of 12.1 million, 6.1 million and 2.7 million hours (21 million total) over its first three frames. Not the numbers Lucasfilm was hoping for nor the numbers of a streaming hit. But they’re in the same vicinity as some Netflix summer releases with $345 million at the global box office to offset a smidgen of the pain. Final Thoughts So why oh why does this nuance gap exist? Four key reasons: Data Literacy: A “$100 million opening” just makes sense. After decades of box office reporting, even casual movie fans are well-versed in the benchmarks of hits and home runs. There’s an immediate shorthand. But “16.5 million” hours doesn’t land nearly as cleanly. Despite leaps of progress, the streaming ratings era is still in its infancy compared to theatrical. The EntStrategyGuy and I met thanks to a late 2010s group chat of data nerds hungry to find a shred of certainty in nebulous streaming performance. I’m not surprised to see “No. 1 on Netflix” still getting misconstrued out in the wild. Timing: By Friday morning, we have the box office’s Thursday night previews totaled, allowing us to better project the weekend’s expectations. From there, ticket sales are reported daily. By Sunday, the film’s fate is usually finalized, at least in terms of public perception. In streaming, Nielsen recently improved its delay to…two weeks. The medium isn’t forced to contend with instant gratification as harshly. Financials: Theatrical film budgets are a mere Google away. Profit and loss is calculated in the cold and unforgiving naked light of day for all to see. But finding the vast majority of streaming exclusive movie budgets requires the forensic investigation skills of a Criminal Minds detective. Also, it’s very difficult to calculate how much revenue/value a straight-to-streaming films provides a streamer. This is why there are so few stories about streaming original movies “losing X amount of money”. On top of that, marketing budgets are far greater for theatrical movies than streaming exclusive movies, which leads to earlier and better awareness. This then translates to a wider pool of potential interest. Narrative Control: Netflix is the only major streaming service to publish weekly first-hand viewership data and annual engagement reports. Naturally, some headlines borrow their first-hand framing**.** Other streamers benefit from their comparative lack of transparency. They may occasionally announce vague performance platitudes such as Apple TV’s Mayday becoming its “biggest film debut on the platform to date over its first 18 days,” and that it ranked No. 1 with left-handed viewers in its first weekend. (Fine, I made up that second one). But, for the most part, they keep first-hand viewership shrouded in mystery to avoid bad press. Especially for outlets that demand multiple articles per day from their writers, it’s an easy (and understandable) way for some reporters to hit their daily article quota by just repeating what the streamers have told them. TL:DR version: Streaming-exclusive movies are asked to do different things than theatrical movies, but that doesn’t mean they should escape judgment. Both still need to draw enough eyeballs to justify their cost within the proper performance contexts. The more cleanly we can inject a little nuance into streaming analysis, the better we’ll understand the audience and content trends that drive this industry. And that’s what all of this is really about: knowing what audiences actually want! Brandon Katz is the Director of Insights & Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics where he focuses on evaluating the ever-fluid media landscape to unearth understanding, opportunity and value. Greenlight Analytics is the entertainment intelligence consulting company redefining how Hollywood finds, understands, and activates audiences. Prior to joining Greenlight Analytics, he served as the senior entertainment industry strategist at Parrot Analytics, and as a full-time entertainment industry reporter covering the Xs and Os of Hollywood, most notably with TheWrap and the Observer.
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Gears of War: E-Day sells 230K copies
Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230K copies since its advance-access launch on October 1 and full release on October 6. Steam accounts for 168K of those, with Xbox (console and PC) selling 62K. But there’s more to this story, as Xbox makes up the bulk of revenue. E-Day is the best-reviewed Gears game in nearly two decades (and the best one ever made, in my opinion). The Coalition has made a banger here (it’s currently in my top 10 of the year). Despite E-Day’s undeniable quality, this is a soft result. And it’s down to the business model, really. E-Day has made $37M so far, thanks to the Premium upgrade On Xbox, Game Pass is cannibalising much of the premium revenue. Our estimates show that 1.7M folks accessed E-Day via their subscription rather than a copy. But Xbox is having it both ways – or having it halfway, at least – via its Premium Edition Game Pass upgrade. Game Pass subscribers could pay $30 (or their local equivalent) for up to five days of early access starting October 1. Our estimates show that of the 1.7M who accessed E-Day through Game Pass, 722K paid for the upgrade. Between the review embargo lifting on October 1 and the full release, E-Day managed to shift another 250K early-access upgrades – no doubt helped by the campaign’s rave reviews. So despite selling far fewer copies on Steam, Xbox accounts for almost three-quarters of the revenue (roughly $26M of the $37M, versus about $11M on Steam). So “230K copies” undersells the paying audience. Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day. The $30 upgrade is a halfstep from cannibalisation, but will Xbox go all the way? While E-Day is a sublime game, these are soft numbers for a flagship when Xbox badly needs revenue wins. E-Day sold 62K copies on Xbox against 722K Premium upgrades, so for every one copy sold on Xbox, nearly 12 Game Pass upgrades were sold. The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox. Normally you can’t see what a Game Pass player would have paid, because the game’s just there in the subscription. But the $30 early-access upgrade estimate shows that 722K people demonstrated they’ll spend real money on this game. In a world without day-one Game Pass, many of these folks would have bought E-Day at $70. They paid $30 for five days early access to something they don’t own. Xbox is, in effect, charging its most valuable customers the least, based on a hangover from a tried-and-exhausted strategy from a previous administration. Those 722K willing-to-pay players generated about $21.7M via the upgrade. If three quarters of this group – mostly US and European audiences – bought E-Day outright, that’s nearly $40M. Of course, Game Pass does bring in meaningful recurring revenue, and E-Day is adding value for hundreds of thousands of subscribers. However, Game Pass is no longer growing, so Xbox is at a crossroads. Xbox is reportedly looking to do a Netflix and bolt on an ad-supported tier to pad it further. But that will just set a new floor, and leadership keeps telling us the priority now is revenue growth, which is subscriber-speak for ARPU. Xbox has already pulled Call of Duty from day-one Game Pass after day-one inclusion hammered its sales, with new CoD titles now arriving on the service around a year late. We know that some Microsoft executives believe the service devalues games outright, and rumours (which Microsoft has dismissed so far, to be fair) suggest that day-one releases could be taken off Game Pass. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe When a game this well-reviewed does this softly on its home platform, the model – not the game – gets brought into question. What else E-Day’s early adopters have played (including this month so far) Looking at E-Day‘s players on Xbox, most have played the franchise before (86% have played Gears 5, 76% Gears 4), and every game on the crossover list is either a shooter or a title from an Xbox-owned studio (though Game Pass is inflating those numbers, of course, more on that later): As for what else Xbox’s E-Day players have played this month, the top three are Fortnite (16%), Roblox (7%), and Call of Duty (6%). Another 5% played Minecraft Dungeons II, which is also on Game Pass and launched a couple of days before Gears‘ advance-access date. Many Game Pass players are happy to check out most big new additions. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Over on Steam, the top crossover games are also mostly shooters (slightly more PC-coded ones), including Space Marine 2, which was itself heavily inspired by Gears: Looking at what E-Day‘s Steam players are into this month shows who they are – as subscriptions don’t skew the data. The top three are Wardogs (13%), Deadlock (12%), and CS2 (10%), so you’ve got the restless shooter crowd checking out the new hotness. A little further down are Helldivers 2 and Space Marine 2, your co-op PVE shooter players who’ll feel right at home in Horde mode. Game Pass is skewing the playtime distribution on Xbox Looking at the playtime distribution in our platform, E-Day players on Steam are – relatively speaking – playing for longer: 54% of E-Day players on Xbox have played for five hours or less (versus 32% on Steam) 19% of Xbox players played for over 15 hours (versus 33% on Steam) 14% of Xbox players played for over 20 hours (22% on Steam) The absolute number of people playing for over 15, 20, and 50 hours is, of course, bigger on Xbox, thanks to the sheer volume of folks who came in through Game Pass (upgraders included). None of that is cause for alarm. Game Pass is the reason Xbox playtime skews lower, as when a game is free to try, people try it and bounce without putting in even an hour (17% under an hour on Xbox versus 6% on Steam). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe The subscription brings in tourists alongside the committed, dragging down the average even when the game is excellent (but also perhaps winning over the uninitiated). It’s standard across every subscription-included title, on PS Plus too. Forza Horizon 6, for instance, had 11% of its Xbox players bounce under an hour, versus just 2% on Steam. So, Xbox’s crossroads So there we have it. Gears of War: E-Day is an incredible game whose revenues have been stifled by subscription inclusion and exclusivity. It’s the best-reviewed entry in the series in fifteen-odd years, but it still turned into one of the year’s softer flagship launches, not because players didn’t want it, but because Xbox’s own storefront gave its most willing buyers a reason not to pay. Which leaves Xbox at a crossroads. Will it keep making Gears games when the financial returns are this thin and the margins this low? And if it does, does the next one arrive off Game Pass at day one – the way CoD now does, or even on PlayStation? I think it should. Alright, back to E-Day for me! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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