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Amazon's New Prime Business and Amazon Business Credit Cards, Powered by U.S. Bank and Mastercard®, Are Now Available with Enhanced Rewards and Flexible Financing
New cards built for modern businesses—featuring dynamic rewards and industry-leading benefits with no annual fee and no foreign transaction fees Amazon today launched the new Prime Business Card and Amazon Business Card, bringing together the Amazon rewards business customers love with powerful new benefits to help businesses make the most of their spending on Amazon. These cards, issued by U.S. Bank as part of the Mastercard® network, offer rewards wherever customers are shopping, access to fle
Alibaba Group Announces March Quarter 2026 and Fiscal Year 2026 Results
Alibaba Group Holding Limited today announced its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.
Virginia representative distances herself after agreeing with radio show host’s offensive comment about Jeffries
A Republican congresswoman from Virginia is defending herself amid calls for her to resign after she agreed with a radio host’s remark referring to House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ “cotton-picking hands.”
VENU Announces Expansion Plans of Its Premium Live Entertainment Portfolio into Tennessee with Landmark $300 Million Amphitheater at the Bend in Chattanooga
Venu Holding Corporation ("VENU" or the “Company”) (NYSE American: VENU), owner, operator, and developer of premium live entertainment destinations, today an...
AST SpaceMobile Provides Business Update and First Quarter 2026 Results
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (“AST SpaceMobile”) (NASDAQ: ASTS), the company building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly ...
The Crossword, May 11: She's A Rainbow
Set the tone for your week and solve our Monday crossword. This week’s puzzle was constructed by Kelsey Dixon, and edited by Hoang-Kim Vu. Kelsey is a southerner by birth, a Mariah Carey fan by choice, and a Chicagoan by the grace of god. When she’s not busy working as the crossword editor for the Atlantic, she can…
Live Science crossword puzzle #42: First American to orbit Earth
Test your knowledge on all things science with our weekly, free crossword puzzle!
India’s Zee Entertainment sues Reliance-Disney venture JioStar over alleged music copyright
Reuters reported that Zee is seeking $3M in damages over the alleged unauthorized use of its music…
Ohio Science Teacher Honored With 2026 Shell Science Teaching Award
Melissa Kowalski, a science teacher at Put-in-Bay School in Ohio, was named the 2026 Shell Science Teaching Award recipient by the NSTA.
Piedmont University receives federal funds for Forensic Science Program
Piedmont University has been awarded $608,000 in federal funding, through the efforts of Sen. Jon Ossoff, to strengthen its forensic science program and expand workforce development opportunities throughout Georgia. University officials said the funding will help address growing workforce shortages in forensic science and provide enhanced training opportunities for students,
Accel Entertainment, Inc. Announces Election of Bruce Wardinski to Board of Directors
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: ACEL), a leading locals-focused gaming operator partnering with small businesses, local communities, and state governments t...
Sphere Entertainment generated $386.4M in Q1 revenues, up 38% YoY – driven by The Wizard of Oz and concert
‘Today’s results demonstrate our continued success proving out Sphere’s business model,’ said Executive Chairman and CEO James L.
SeatGeek Partners with Beemok Sports & Entertainment to Power Cincinnati Open, Credit One Charleston Open
SeatGeek, the high-growth technology platform transforming the live event experience for fans, teams and venues, today announced a new partnership with Beemo...
EA SPORTS FC™ and LALIGA Launch New York Community Pitch as Part of FC FUTURES Program, Designed by Local Artist BG183
EA SPORTS FC™ and LALIGA have unveiled a newly refurbished community football pitch in the South Bronx, New York, as part of FC FUTURES – EA SPORTS’ grassroots initiative to expand access to the game and connect football communities around the world. EA SPORTS FC™ and LALIGA launch New York community pitch as part of FC FUTURES program Marking the 10th pitch delivered through the program with LALIGA globally, the project brings together soccer, creativity and community to create a safe, inclusive space for young people and local families to learn through play. Developed in collaboration with local partners and featuring a custom design by Bronx artist BG183, the pitch is connected to P.S./M.S. 31 The William Lloyd Garrison School and has been delivered alongside love.fútbol and South Bronx United to support long-term impact in the community. Located in the South Bronx, the pitch has been designed as a multi-use space that goes beyond the game, supporting school physical education and
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: MSGE) (“MSG Entertainment” or the “Company”) today reported financial results for the fiscal third quarter e...
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation Reports 2026 First Quarter Results
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (NYSE: FUN), the largest regional amusement park operator in North America, today announced its results for the first qua...
NYT Crossword Answers for May 07, 2026
John Guzzetta and Jeff Chen reunite to give us a Thursday workout.
Atari Acquires Rights to the Legendary Wizardry RPGs
Atari® (Euronext Growth Paris: ALATA) — one of the world's most iconic consumer brands and interactive entertainment producers — announced today the acquisit...
Seaport Entertainment Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Results
Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (NYSE: SEG) (“Seaport Entertainment Group,” “SEG,” “we,” “our," or the “Company”) announced today its operating and financia...
Miller-Meeks: Celebrating Iowa Small Businesses
In a newly released op-ed, Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks is highlighting recent wins for Iowa small businesses that support their growth and success.
Milwaukee Congresswoman wants to fund Job Corps
President Donald Trump, in his budget for the next fiscal year, once again proposes eliminating it.
Milwaukee Congresswoman wants to fund Job Corps
President Donald Trump, in his budget for the next fiscal year, once again proposes eliminating it.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Reports Third Quarter Results for Fiscal Year 2026
Lucky Strike Entertainment today provided financial results for the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, which ended on March 29, 2026.
Microsoft Says Edge Password Security Vulnerability Is ‘By Design’—Is It Time To Switch To Chrome?
Microsoft Edge loads all your saved passwords, decrypted and in plaintext, into memory at startup. Google Chrome doesn’t—is it time to switch browser?
SM Entertainment’s revenue surges 21% YoY in Q1 to $192M on strong concert, merch sales
SM’s revenue from concerts surged 56% YoY to KRW 60.8 billion ($42m), driven by tours from SUPER JUNIOR, NCT DREAM, aespa, RIIE and NCT WISH.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Declares Common Stock Dividend
Lucky Strike Entertainment today declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per common
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Results
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) (“AMC” or “the Company”) today reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, which have been post...
Microsoft Says Edge Password Security Vulnerability Is ‘By Design’—Is It Time To Switch To Chrome?
Microsoft Edge loads all your saved passwords, decrypted and in plaintext, into memory at startup. Google Chrome doesn’t—is it time to switch browser?
Microsoft Edge keeps cleartext passwords in RAM, security researcher warns
Microsoft Edge “by design” keeps all saved user passwords unencrypted in RAM for the entire session.
Fight Your Fight: EA SPORTS™ UFC® 6 Arrives June 19, Delivering Next-Level Fighter Individuality and Gameplay Depth
Powered by Fighters, UFC ® 6 Features Alex Pereira and Max Holloway Stepping onto the Cover Watch the Reveal Trailer HERE Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) today unveiled EA SPORTS™ UFC® 6 , launching June 19, 2026 on PlayStation®5 and Xbox Series X|S. Powered by fighters, UFC 6 brings unparalleled fighter authenticity to players with true-to-life fighter movement and striking. Former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former UFC featherweight and BMF champion Max Holloway headline the Standard and Ultimate Edition covers, ushering in a new era of fighter individuality appearing in gameplay, allowing players to fight their fight like never before. UFC 6 Standard Edition EA SPORTS™ UFC® 6 delivers the most realistic and authentic fighting experience yet. Athletes move, strike, and react like their real-life counterparts thanks to Markerless Capture and the next generation of Sapien Technology, setting a new standard for authenticity in the Octagon and a
Sphere Entertainment Co. Reports First Quarter 2026 Results
Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR) (“Sphere Entertainment” or the “Company”) today reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. ...
Microsoft Edge Stores All Saved Passwords in Cleartext Process Memory at Launch
Microsoft Edge decrypts every stored password into process memory the moment the browser launches and keeps them there as cleartext, regardless of whether the user ever visits those sites.
The Crossword, May 4: Fire Away
Don’t be shy! Solve our Monday crossword. This week’s puzzle was constructed by Rebecca Goldstein and edited by Hoang-Kim Vu. Rebecca is a research scientist and crossword constructor in the Bay Area. She is also a co-director of Westwords, a crossword tournament taking place in Berkeley, Calif., and online on Sunday, June 14. Defector crosswords, launched in partnership…
Local Snapshot: Most Small Business Owners Aren’t Prepared for Succession, New Chase Survey Finds
New Chase survey data shows a significant gap between small business owners’ retirement timelines and their readiness to transition leadership. While nearly ...
Public Health Needs Better Stories, Not Fewer Facts
In public health, we are trained to read the curve, trace the chain of transmission, and update guidance as evidence evolves.
Electronic Arts and Visa Team Up to Launch a Global, Multi-Year Partnership With EA SPORTS
Delivering immersive in-game rewards and expanding how players play, connect, and compete Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA), a global leader in interactive entertainment, today announced a landmark, multi-year collaboration with Visa (NYSE: V), the world’s leader in digital payments, to deliver the next generation of immersive, player-first experiences across EA SPORTS™ franchises. Visa is partnering with EA SPORTS franchises EA SPORTS FC™ and EA SPORTS™ College Football, offering in-game rewards and experiences for EA SPORTS’ global community of fans. By combining EA’s interactive, participatory platforms with Visa’s expansive global brand, this partnership demonstrates how the line between sports fandom and video games continues to blur as audiences increasingly play, watch, and connect across both physical and virtual sports. “We’re thrilled to be partnering with Visa for one of Electronic Arts’ most expansive brand partnerships to date, bringing more value to fans,” said David
Long Lake Agrees to Acquire American Express Global Business Travel, the World’s Largest Corporate Travel Platform, for $6.3 Billion, With Support From General Catalyst and Alpha Wave
Long Lake agrees to acquire American Express Global Business Travel
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan's special election for control of the state Senate
Voters in a competitive Central Michigan district will decide control of the state Senate on Tuesday in a special election to fill the seat last held by Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet, who's now a congresswoman.
NYT Strands Hints for May 3, 2026
Scroll down for hints and conversation about the puzzle for Sunday, May 3, 2026.
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. to Host Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: MSGE) will issue a press release on Thursday, May 7, 2026 before the market opens reporting results for its ...
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. to Host Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. to Host Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call
Sphere Entertainment Co. to Host First Quarter 2026 Conference Call
Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR) will host a conference call to discuss results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 10...
National Blood Clot Alliance Launches Women and Blood Clots Virtual Institute During Women's Health Month
PHILADELPHIA, PA, UNITED STATES, May 1, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — The National Blood Clot …
VICI Properties Inc. Closes Sale-Leaseback Transaction With Golden Entertainment
VICI Properties Inc. (NYSE: VICI) (“VICI Properties”, “VICI” or the “Company”) today announced the closing of the previously announced $1.16 billion acquisit...
Sandisk Reports Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Sandisk Corporation (Nasdaq: SNDK) today reported fiscal third quarter financial results. “This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk — wh...
Iterative Health Closes $77 Million Series C to Accelerate the Future of Clinical Research
Iterative Health closed a $77M Series C funding round led by Intrepid Growth Partners and GV, with participation from new and existing investors.
Regions Bank Names Veteran Banker Amy Barrentine as Head of Regions Business Capital
Barrentine brings over 30 years of industry experience to lead teams delivering asset-based lending solutions to clients. Regions Bank on Thursday announced Amy Barrentine has been elevated to serve as head of Regions Business Capital , a specialty finance team within the bank’s Corporate Banking Group . Regions Bank announced veteran banker Amy Barrentine has been elevated to serve as head of Regions Business Capital, a specialty finance team within the bank’s Corporate Banking Group. An important competitive differentiator for Regions Bank, Regions Business Capital develops tailored services for companies at all stages of their life cycles. From managing periods of rapid growth, to navigating performance volatility, strategically leveraging acquisitions, to managing shareholder distributions, and more, Barrentine’s team specializes in helping clients build responsible growth and achieve clear goals. Examples of solutions provided by the team include: Asset-Based Lending :
SAROS Launches Worldwide Exclusively on PlayStation®5
Sony Interactive Entertainment today announced the worldwide launch of SAROS, Housemarque’s next gameplay-first, single-player action game. Available now on ...
Fenway Insider: Submit questions for MassLive’s Sean McAdam
What questions do you have for Sean McAdam this week?
Researchers Discover Critical GitHub CVE-2026-3854 RCE Flaw Exploitable via Single Git Push
CVE-2026-3854 (CVSS 8.7) enabled GitHub RCE via git push, risking cross-tenant access to millions of repositories.
BMG and Concord confirm merger, with Bertelsmann as majority-owner; Bob Valentine named CEO of combined
The combined company will be owned approximately 67% by Bertelsmann, and 33% by affiliates of Great Mountain Partners, a long-time investor in Concord…
City Council discusses entertainment district, street maintenance project
DeKALB – The City Council presented a rough list of interested businesses for the recently passed entertainment district to better understand the limits of where patrons could carry their alcohol on the open streets. Patrons will be allowed to carry open containers on sidewalks and crossways within the limits of the district. Future discussions will...
Investor Supporting Japan’s Entertainment Industry, Yoshihiro Shimamura, to Visit France Workshop to be Held During the Cannes Film Festival
Shimamura Yoshihiro Film Planning Inc. (Head Office: Osaka, Japan; CEO: Yoshihiro Shimamura), a company engaged in film production and investment, will host ...
Petroglyph Development Group and Great Canadian Entertainment Announce the Successful Closing of the Acquisition of Chances Maple Ridge
Great Canadian Entertainment (“Great Canadian” or the “Company”) and Petroglyph Development Group Ltd. (“PDG”) confirmed the close of PDG’s acquisition of Ch...
Kroenke Sports & Entertainment Partners with Humanforce to Elevate the Workforce Experience at KSE Colorado Venues
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Humanforce, a leading global provider of intelligent, AI-driven human capital management (HCM) solutions for frontline workforces, today announced a strategic partnership with Kroenke Sports & Entertainment (KSE) to optim...
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds ‘Captain Majima Content Drop’ update launches April 29
The “Captain Majima Content Drop” update for Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds will launch on April 29 at 5:00 p.m. PT / 8:00 p.m. ET, SEGA announced.
WEBTOON Entertainment Partners With Genies to Expand Character-Driven Fan Experiences With Digital Avatars
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (Nasdaq: WBTN), a global entertainment company and home to some of the world’s largest storytelling platforms, today announced a s...
Sun Pharma signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Organon
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (Reuters: SUN.BO, Bloomberg: SUNP IN, NSE: SUNPHARMA, BSE: 524715) (together with its subsidiaries and/or associated co...
Trump's disdain for wind projects creates a political storm for Republicans in coastal Virginia
President Donald Trump’s attempts to cancel offshore wind projects have drawn opposition not only from environmentalists but also from Republicans. One of them is Jen Kiggans, a congresswoman who represents a coastal district in Virginia where an $11.5 billion wind farm is expected to create 1,000 jobs. Her support for a project targeted by Trump shows the scrambled politics of clean energy in an election year where Republicans are at risk of losing the House. Kiggans could be even more at risk after Virginia voters approved on Tuesday a new congressional map that makes her competitive district more Democratic than before.
Trump's disdain for wind projects creates a political storm for Republicans in coastal Virginia
President Donald Trump's attempts to cancel offshore wind projects have drawn opposition not only from environmentalists but also from Republicans. One of them is Jen Kiggans, a congresswoman who represents a coastal district in Virginia where an $11.5 billion wind farm is expected to create 1,00...
Trump's disdain for wind projects creates a political storm for Republicans in coastal Virginia
President Donald Trump's attempts to cancel offshore wind projects have drawn opposition not only from environmentalists but also from Republicans. One of them is Jen Kiggans, a congresswoman who...
GK Digital Ventures and Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment Announce Return of “The Global Game: The Future of Soccer, Tech & Media Summit”
GK Digital Ventures and Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment Announce Return of “The Global Game: The Future of Soccer, Tech & Media Summit”
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Pricing Reflect Recent Slide And DCF Upside Potential
If you are wondering whether Tencent Music Entertainment Group's current share price reflects its underlying value, or if the market is mispricing it, this breakdown will help you frame that question with numbers rather than guesswork. The stock last closed at US$9.25, with returns of an 8.9% decline over 7 days, a 6.2% decline over 30 days, a 48.2% decline year to date, a 28.6% decline over 1 year, a 32.8% gain over 3 years, and a 45.6% decline over 5 years, which gives you a wide range of...
IKS Health Announces Agreement to Acquire TruBridge to Strengthen Access to Rural and Community-Based Healthcare
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions, Inc. (“IKS”), the U.S. subsidiary of Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited (NSE: IKS) (“IKS Health”), a global leader in car...
Regions Bank + Dash Solutions Collaborate on New Treasury Management Solution to Modernize Client Payment Operations
Regions ReimbursePro delivers fast, flexible and convenient options to help clients initiate real-time money movement. Regions Bank on Thursday announced the launch of Regions ReimbursePro , the bank’s latest Treasury Management innovation designed to help business clients modernize their payment processes and expedite real-time money movement. Regions ReimbursePro is a new, forward-thinking Treasury Management solution designed to help business clients accelerate refunds, modernize their payment processes and fuel growth. Regions ReimbursePro is powered by Dash Solutions , a leading payments enablement company also headquartered in Birmingham. The solution provides Regions’ Treasury Management clients access to a modern, secure digital platform that helps transform refund operations away from older, manual, time-consuming processes that include paper documents and physical checks. Key upgrades include: Once a reimbursement is initiated through this new solution, recipients can choose
PENN Entertainment, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (“PENN” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: PENN) today reported financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Jay Snowden, Chief E...
No. 14 on the list of Tampa Bay's Most Powerful Politicians: Laurel Lee
In her 2 terms in office, the Congresswoman has so far sponsored four bills that became law, with more bills on track to pass.
AEG Presents and Goldenvoice Spotlight Careers in Live Entertainment at Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival
NORTHAMPTON, MA / ACCESS Newswire / April 22, 2026 / More than 100 local high school students gained a behind-the-scenes look at careers in live entertainment when AEG Presents and Goldenvoice hosted a career exposure day at the Coachella Valley Music ...
Report: Washington State’s Life Sciences Industry Outpaces National Life Science and State Private Sector Job Growth for 5th Consecutive Year
Life Science Washington, the state’s industry trade association, today released its annual Economic Impact Report which reveals Washington’s life sciences in...
Mara Brock Akil And Congresswoman Sydney Kamlager-Dove Share How Storytelling Shapes Black Maternal Health
On Saturday, April 18, In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda brought together elected officials, TV and film writers, creators, and community leaders for a powerful conversation unpacking how media narratives can impact policy.
Democrats challenging Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick welcome resignation, want Special Election to replace her
Luther Campbell, Dale Holness and Elijah Manley all say the ex-Congresswoman's scandal distracted from her service.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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