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Forget Masters leaderboard, Scottie Scheffler still biggest threat to Rory
Scottie Scheffler, the world's No. 1 golfer, made a significant comeback in the Masters third round, challenging Rory McIlroy.
‘Her recovery literally is miraculous’: Walmart Heart celebrates Church Hill girl after series of health issues
KINGSPORT, Tenn. (WJHL) — The Church Hill community gathered at Walmart in Kingsport on Saturday to support a girl who has made a remarkable recovery after facing serious health issues. Charleigh M…
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one on Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace that Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Newly discovered fossil challenges idea of ape origins in east Africa
The remains, discovered in 2023 and 2024, are incomplete, and made up of only a few jawbone fragments and worn teeth.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid Iran war fallout
Iraq's parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn't produce a decisive majority.
Babies too young for MMR vaccine become ‘sitting ducks’ in measles outbreaks
Babies too young to be vaccinated are among the most vulnerable in a measles outbreak and depend entirely on herd immunity.
Why are people calling Trump a TACO again? What is TACO Trump meaning
Why are people calling Trump a TACO? Here's what TACO Trump stands for and meaning of the acronym.
Are the Bills better after offseason additions and departures?
The Bills made some big moves, including trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb. Is Buffalo’s roster improved?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Peru holds presidential election amid a decade of political tumult
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Radical Rob demonstrates fun science experiments on 'Fox & Friends Weekend'
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Atlético Madrid ‘astounded’ by Barcelona’s refereeing complaints
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Tigers' Casey Mize hopes sunny skies signal success vs. Marlins
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Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
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How a moon mission and a phone call could help relieve trade tensions
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A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
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This dreadful run that's weighing Mbappé down 🥶
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Dodgers' Max Muncy makes incredible MLB history
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Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
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Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world.
Exclusive: US intelligence indicates China is preparing weapons shipment to Iran amid fragile ceasefire, sources say
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Robert MacIntyre has awkward Masters exit after a middle-finger moment, missed cut and no interviews
Robert MacIntyre made headlines for all the wrong reasons at the Masters | NewsRadio WILK
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Mamdani hits 100 days as mayor of New York City
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AP report: Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations
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Broncos ownership group joins Rockies as minority partners
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The Trump administration just updated rules for CDC's vaccine advisory panel, allowing inclusion of RFK Jr. allies
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David Blitzer Expands Sports Empire With Bet On Golf’s Next Generation
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📸 The maddest moments of the European week 👽
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Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations
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Goodbye Traditional Bathtubs & Showers – There's A New Trend Taking Over
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Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
The Trump administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program
This Women’s Healthcare Stock Is Up 15% on Reports of a Takeover In the Works
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Texas Children’s Receives $5 Million Estate Legacy Gift to Advance Pediatric Behavioral Health Services
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Trump administration admits error in accusations about N.Y. health care fraud
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Horne misses Toulon clash through injury
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Trump administration admits a glaring error in its accusations about New York health care fraud
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Trump endorsed former Fox host. It could tip balance in this CA race.
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Robert MacIntyre faces reprimand after giving Masters the middle finger
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Note to Colorado lawmakers — parents protecting kids isn’t abuse, it’s their job
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Jayson Tatum scores 24 for Celtics in first game at Madison Square Garden since Achilles injury, but Knicks win
Agriculture secretary’s religious Easter message to all employees sparks internal backlash and a formal complaint
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Federal judge finds Pentagon in violation of court order to restore reporters' access
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Barcelona Complains to UEFA Over 'Incomprehensible Refereeing' After UCL Loss
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Why Kendrick Perkins Thinks Knicks 'Need' Win Over Celtics
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Evers signs law legalizing tribal run online sports betting in Wisconsin
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Chinese business hired lobbyist with ties to Don Jr, then scored a win
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WATCH: First lady Melania Trump denies any ties to Jeffrey Epstein and calls for survivors' testimony
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As Trump throws lifeline to coal plants, critics warn of higher costs and health risks
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Guillermo del Toro's masterpiece Pan's Labyrinth Returns in 3D for 20th Anniversary from Cineverse and Fathom Entertainment on October 9
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Amazon upsets ebook lovers by ending support for old Kindle devices
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The 2026 WNBA Draft board is a puzzle — here’s how it fits together now
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This AI Wearable From Ex-Apple Engineers Looks Like an iPod Shuffle
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Those who don't 'do' politics give up their voice on policy
A Jacksonville government affairs analyst urges citizens to remember that politics sets public policy, which impacts every aspect of daily life.
Coös County health center CEO says new rural health funds not enough to counteract Medicaid cuts
Edward Shanshala, CEO of Ammonoosuc Community Health Services, said when Congress passed its massive tax cuts and spending law last year, he and his colleagues made the difficult decision to shut down the organization’s clinic in Franconia in anticipation of the law’s impacts. Shanshala doesn’t think a new tranche of federal funding will be enough […]
Supreme Court remade by Trump ushers in historic defeats for civil rights
The court is the first since at least the ’50s to reject claims in a majority of cases involving women and minorities, an analysis conducted for The Post shows.
Buy art made by people with disabilities at ASPIE\'s auction
Jerry and Jean Buckwalter are all too familiar with the gap that exists in support services for adults with disabilities.
Real Madrid target reaches preliminary renewal agreement with current club
Real Madrid’s search for defensive reinforcements has taken another unexpected turn, with one of their previously monitored targets now looking increasingly out of reach. As the club continues to a...
Science history: Doctor hypothesizes that 'transmissible proteins' can cause disease, contradicting a 'central dogma' of molecular biology
Prion diseases, such as "mad cow," are caused by transmissible proteins that were identified in the 1980s.
Disney plans to cut 1,000 jobs, WSJ reports
Disney is planning to cut as many as 1,000 positions in the coming weeks, many of which will be made in the company's marketing department, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing sources.
Syrian Doctors Fight Infant Blindness After War
Syrian American ophthalmologists are banding together to improve pediatric tests for retinopathy of prematurity
WATCH: Vance says 'ceasefires are always messy'
The vice president, who is set to participate in negotiations in Pakistan this weekend, said “ceasefires are always messy” and often feature “a little bit of choppiness.”
TNT Sports & CBS Sports Deliver Most Watched NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship Game in Seven Years with 18.3 Million Viewers on TBS, TNT and truTV
RFK Jr. says he's launching a podcast to expose 'lies' that have made Americans sick
The show will launch next week and feature Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine crusader who has reshaped the country’s health policy, in conversation with doctors, scientists and agency staff.
Kentucky lawmakers lean on fast-track tactics as session nears end
With two days left in Kentucky’s session, lawmakers are advancing bills quickly, often with final changes made outside public view.
RFK Jr. is launching a podcast to expose ‘lies’ that have made Americans sick
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is launching a new podcast that he says will begin “a new era of radical transparency in government,” according to a teaser video first obtained by The Associated Press.
Sen. Graham seeks congressional review of any peace deal with Iran
Sen. Lindsey Graham said in a post on X that he looks forward to the architects of the proposal, including Vice President JD Vance, coming to Congress and explaining how the deal meets America’s national security objectives.
Nancy Guthrie’s kidnappers may have made fatal health mistake: Detective
“It just scares me to think that somebody maybe took Miss Guthrie, and she had some sort of medical event.”
Zeldin tells climate skeptics to 'celebrate vindication' after repeal of baseline climate rule
The head of the Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday defended his decision to repeal the legal determination that serves as the basis for federal rules to slow climate change.
BladderShield Claims Evaluated: Potent Bladder Leak Trick Supports Men's Health
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Iran hawks seem to fear Trump will give Iran too much
Some aspects of the mostly unclear deal are raising alarms among hawkish Trump allies.