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Virginia Takes Historic Action on Gun Violence Prevention | Center for Gun Violence Solutions
Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has acted on more than two dozen gun violence prevention bills that will soon become law in Virginia.
Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River
April 14, 2026 Media Contact: Brookie Crawford, brookie.crawford@vdh.virginia.gov Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River Contaminants Identified in Black Crappie RICHMOND, Va. – Effective immediately, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) is issuing a fish consumption advisory for the Chickahominy River due to elevated perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) levels in black crappie. Fish […]
Olivia Troye, former Pence adviser turned Trump critic, launches Democratic bid for US House from Virginia
Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, announced Tuesday that she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District, pending passage of a sweeping redistricting referendum this month.
Olivia Troye, Ex-Pence Aide, Runs for the House as a Democrat
After spending most of her Washington career as a Republican, she joins a crowded field of Democrats running in a Virginia district that doesn’t exist yet.
Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat
Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.
House returns as two lawmakers vow to resign amid scandals
Representatives Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, and Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, announced Monday they would resign amid scrutiny over their conduct
Where to watch WrestleMania 42 on the big screen in Memphis
CM Punk vs. Roman Reigns on the big screen? WrestleMania 42 will be shown at the Malco Paradiso in Memphis this weekend.
Trump touts 'gold standard science.' What does that actually mean?
The Trump administration says it's returning U.S. science to a golden era. Critics say it's tarnished by political agendas.
Wild weekend could bring big changes to race for Governor
"It was a wild weekend in California politics," said Adjunct McGeorge School of Law Professor Chris Micheli.
Prep sports roundup: Norco moves two games up in Big VIII League baseball race
Corona Centennial upsets Corona 5-2; Norco rolls to 10-3 win over Roosevelt
Swalwell out, new poll could alter April 22 debate lineup
The field for the upcoming Inside California Politics gubernatorial debate is likely to shift following the sudden exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race over the weekend amid alle…
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Rep. Eric Swalwell of California says he will resign from Congress after sexual assault allegations
The decision caps a swift political fall for the seven-term lawmaker, who had been seen as a frontrunner in California’s gubernatorial race.
Rep. Eric Swalwell will resign from Congress following sexual misconduct allegations
The California Democrat said in a statement he was “deeply sorry to my family, staff and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.”
Luc Schrauf selected as Eberly College of Science spring 2026 student marshal
Luc Schrauf of State College, Pennsylvania, will be honored as the student marshal for the Penn State Eberly College of Science at the University’s spring 2026 commencement ceremony on Sunday, May 10, on the University Park campus.
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
Thaddeus Stevens College to launch online small business management program
Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology prides itself on integrating its students into central Pennsylvania trade and technical programs, to the point that many are working for local businesses before they
How Amazon is expanding its car-sales business
Amazon (AMZN) is expanding its car-sales business to include Jeep, Chevrolet, and other automakers. Yahoo Finance Senior Autos Reporter Pras Subramanian breaks down the details.
Construction wraps on California Science Center's building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour
Mission nearly complete. The California Science Center says construction is finally finished on a building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour.
Fury at California's 'insane' mental health diversion program after shock Lil Nas X ruling
“California’s mental health system is the definition of insanity"
Contra Costa Health nurses demand Board of Supervisors stop drastic budget and service cuts
Registered nurses with the California Nurses Association will speak out at the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, April 14, to demand that the board stop drastic budget cuts to save the Contra Costa Health system, maintain services, and retain nurses in the wake of the significant projected financial losses created by H.R. 1.
Scholarships support rising stars of science
Two UVA students – a neuroscience major and a materials engineering major – received Goldwater Scholarships.
Games Workshop brings seven classic Warhammer games to Steam for the first time
Fans of miniature plastic soldiers, rejoice. Games Workshop has brought a host of older Warhammer and Warhammer 40K video games to Steam for the first time.
Political expert discusses the latest on the California governor’s race.
Swalwell faces bipartisan push to expel him from the House
Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna plans to file a motion to expel Rep. Eric Swalwell on the grounds that he violated House rules by having an inappropriate sexual relationship with a subordinate.
House Ethics Committee investigating sexual misconduct allegations against Swalwell
The announcement comes one day after Swalwell suspended his campaign for California governor after the emergence of allegations that he continues to deny.
CNN political and legal experts discuss fallout from Eric Swalwell stepping down from California gubernatorial race
Xbox Game Pass ‘has become too expensive,’ says Microsoft’s new gaming chief in leaked memo
It sounds like Game Pass pricing will drop soon
Virginia Beach event to celebrate Luther Vandross’ legacy through art and entertainment
Does anyone really want to deal with Kanye West?
A UK ban coming days after selling out two nights in California perfectly encapsulates Ye’s decades long career.
How California Can Improve Access to Mental Health Services | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Professor Sara Masland examines existing barriers to accessing mental health services, the risks associated with using AI as a therapist and the importance of early intervention in the state’s new Mental Health for All initiative.
Swalwell’s Fall Punctuates Woes of Democrats in California, of All Places
Democrats have struggled to find a candidate for governor who can capture the imagination of voters in one of their most important strongholds.
EOU students win awards for their business ideas
LA GRANDE — Local university students and alumni made a big splash in April with their business ideas at the Eastern Oregon Innovation Jam. The Rural Engagement and Vitality Center […]
Eric Swalwell’s downfall, explained
The accusations that forced out the frontrunner in California’s governor race — and could push him from Congress next.
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
Construction done on Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, to open soon
Construction on the California Science Center's new Samuel Oschin Air & Space Center, home to the Endeavour shuttle, is complete.
The Next Test in the Iran War: Which Side Can Endure More Economic Pain?
President Trump is trying to choke off the country’s lifeline with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranians are betting that his tolerance for political pain is limited.
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
Trump wanted California Republicans to back Steve Hilton. They didn’t listen
Republicans at their state party convention couldn’t coalesce around one of their two candidates for governor, ending in no endorsement
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud
Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.
Did Neuralink make the wrong bet?
The field of brain-computer interfaces is moving away from mind-controlled computer cursors to restoring speech.
After falling during hurdles, Beckham Borquez shall rise again
Sherman Oaks Notre Dame hurdler Beckham Borquez fell while competing in hurdles at the Arcadia Invitational, but he is planning an immediate comeback.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to resign from House amid sexual assault allegations
The California Democrat suspended his campaign for governor amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations by a former staff member and at least three other women
Fifteen bucks a signature: the crisis of money in US politics is growing
The fight over California’s billionaire tax is just the latest symptom of a crisis that has escalated since 2010
Coachella 2026: The 21 best moments from the fest's 25th-anniversary weekend
From Justin Bieber and his laptop to the high-production headlining sets from Sabrina Carpenter and Karol G and the best of everything in between at Coachella.
Everything to know about David Geffen Galleries as a new LACMA emerges
The divisive new building opens to members April 19 and widely May 4. Learn more about its architecture, must-see art, things to do and $724 million price tag.
How streaming platforms reignited the YA boom: TSITP to Heated Rivalry
Diverse storylines, coupled with the global reach of streaming platforms, have reignited an explosion of YA adaptations, and it's a race that isn’t slowing down.
Jennifer Riley: Nuclear verdicts and junk science are creating a judicial hellhole
Over the years, Pennsylvania has become flooded with excessive lawsuits that are pushing our healthcare system to a breaking point. […]
5 live shows bring big‑name entertainment to Northern California
From Bollywood fusion to pop‑punk, reggae and comedy, here some of the top shows coming to Northern and Central California this month.
Oil prices jump on US plans to blockade Iranian ports in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices climbed Monday, after the US military said it would implement a shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could test the current ceasefire while further tightening global oil supply.
Washington Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports After Talks Collapse
The war in Iran has already strained supply chains and energy markets, and the US blockade threatens to destabilize global trade flows.
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor after sex assault allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell faced intense pressure to drop his bid for California governor after reporting Friday that prompted many supporters to drop their support for him
Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor
Swalwell continues to deny the allegations
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Laura Gersony on the SRP election and Turning Point's impact
Arizona Republic reporter Laura Gersony joins us to talk about the SRP election, and why it was a loss for Turning Point USA. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the President’s threat to end a civilization and Melania Trump's Epstein-focused press conference.
I rode in the Goodyear blimp over Coachella
The Times’ Mikael Wood got an invite to float over Coachella. Hey, why not?
SF, California leaders blast Trump for firing Presidio board
State and local leaders condemned the decision to fire all six board members of the Presidio Trust, the federal agency that manages the historic national park.
Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter
A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.
California Republicans deadlocked on endorsing governor candidate
Neither Fox News commentator Steve Hilton nor Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received the required delegate support at the state convention, which ended Sunday.
California Republicans caught between Trump loyalty and winning swing districts
California Republicans embrace Trump at their convention while candidates in competitive races keep him at arm's length to win over voters.
Coachella 2026: The story of the festival's Ferris wheel, La Grande XL
You've seen Coachella's Ferris wheel throughout your social media feeds. We talked to the operators about what it takes to put together La Grande XL.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
Staffing and pay concerns at the forefront of Sutter Health workers informational picket
Workers at Sutter Health hospitals in Northern California, including Sacramento, held an informational picket to highlight concerns about unsafe staffing and pay amid ongoing contract negotiations.
The Los Angeles Times' top 25 high school baseball rankings
A look at the top 25 high school baseball teams in the Southland after the eighth week of the season.
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
Virginia Business photographer wins Best in Show
Virginia Business won nine awards in the Virginia Press Association‘s 2025 News & Advertising Contest, including a Best in Show award for Specialty Photography to contributing photographer Norm Shafer, the state organization announced during its April 11 annual awards banquet held at The Virginian hotel in Lynchburg. Shafer won the VPA Best in Show award […]
Coachella 2026 YouTube livestream: How to watch Karol G on Sunday
How to watch Coachella 2026 Day 3 YouTube livestream: Karol G, BigBang, Laufey, Little Simz, Kaskade, Young Thug, FKA Twigs, Subtronics and more.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
Virginia Mercury wins multiple Virginia Press Association awards
The Virginia Press Association recognized the outstanding work of dozens of news publications across the state on April 11 in Lynchburg, with The Virginia Mercury receiving first and second place awards across multiple categories for reporting and column writing in 2025. • Health and housing reporter Charlotte Rene Woods and editor-in-chief Samantha Willis earned the […]
Park inequality in Southern California creates health risks, especially during the heat
Park-wise, the region has long been a land of haves and have nots. But a new study from researchers at UC Irvine and Chapman University shows that not all parks are created equal.
Prosecutors seek reforms to California’s ‘broken’ mental health diversion program
District attorneys throughout the state are pushing for legislative changes that would tighten up requirements under which a judge can grant diversion.
Bill calls for mental health assessments be made available for all Virginia 6-12th graders
A proposed law would ask that mental health assessments be made available for all sixth-12th grade public school students in Virginia.
Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go
Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | 1010 WINS
John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Africa is losing health workers when it can least afford to – a pattern rooted in colonial history
Health workers consistently move from poorer countries to richer ones, a pattern that tracks closely along lines drawn by colonial history.
Department 56 Reveals Disneyland Haunted Mansion Figure
Department 56, known for their miniature holiday village figures, has announced a new Disneyland-inspired Haunted Mansion figure.
Republicans are torn on following Trump's lead in governor's race
Republicans have a rare, if slim shot at winning the governor’s mansion in deep blue California — but risk blowing it if they’re divided.
April 16 Vallejo-Vacaville Arts/Entertainment Source: Activities
April 16: The Drifting Cowboys, 6:30 p.m., Empress Marquee Club, 324 Virginia St., Vallejo. April 17: Rise Vallejo Ribbon Cutting Ceremony and Family Carnival, 11 a.m., Rise Vallejo Early Learning Center, 1450 Coronel Ave.,…
L.A. Times readers celebrate UCLA women's basketball's title win
Times readers cheer UCLA coach Cori Close and players Gabriela Jaquez, Kiki Rice, Lauren Betts, Gianne Kneepkens, Angela Dugalic and Charlisse Leger-Walker.
U.S. Moves to Deport Son of Prominent Figure in Iranian Revolution
Federal agents arrested a man whose mother served as a spokeswoman for the Islamist embassy captors during the hostage crisis that began in 1979.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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