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Phoenix Suns bet on health and identity against Portland Trail Blazers in play-in showdown
PHOENIX — The Phoenix Suns enter Tuesday’s play-in matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers in a position they have rarely held this season: relatively healthy. Nov 18, 2025; Portland, Oregon, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) dribbles the ball during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center.
Will Democrats try to remove Trump from office?
Impeachment, 25th Amendment are likely to fall short
Dispose of medications safely on National Prescription Drug Take-Back Day April 25
Penn State Health will collect unwanted, unneeded or expired medications, needles and syringes for safe disposal on Saturday, April 25, as part of National Prescription Drug Take-Back Day.
The RAM Crisis Just Royally Screwed Microsoft Surface PCs
We likely won't see a new Surface PC as cheap as the MacBook Neo anytime soon.
Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Occoquan Watershed
April 14, 2026 Media Contact: Brookie Crawford, brookie.crawford@vdh.virginia.gov Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Occoquan Watershed Contaminants Identified in Bluegill Sunfish, Largemouth Bass RICHMOND, Va. – Effective immediately, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) is issuing a fish consumption advisory for the Occoquan watershed due to elevated perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) levels in specific […]
Unpicking the negativity that surrounds double-chasing Celtic
It has all felt a bit negative since the win over St Mirren on Saturday, a bit heavy, which is a strange place to be when we're effectively seven games from a double. Yes, we've won many titles before - 13 of the past 14 no less - but when were we last in a genuine title race this close?
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River
April 14, 2026 Media Contact: Brookie Crawford, brookie.crawford@vdh.virginia.gov Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River Contaminants Identified in Black Crappie RICHMOND, Va. – Effective immediately, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) is issuing a fish consumption advisory for the Chickahominy River due to elevated perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) levels in black crappie. Fish […]
After falling short last season, TF Sport has unfinished business in WEC
TF Sport's Corvettes were in title contention for much of last season but they ultimately fell short This year the aim is to finish the job.
Asking Eric: ‘Extremely online’ girlfriend shares too much
My friend sent me some of the links ... it wasn’t bad stuff, per se. Just her talking about going out to dinner with me or complaining about how I sleep ...
Safeguarding health care in rural Missouri demands a new approach
Missouri lawmakers are right to treat the collapse of rural health care as an urgent crisis. Nearly half of the state’s remaining rural hospitals are at risk of closure, and many communities already know what it means to lose emergency rooms, labor and delivery services and timely stroke care. In this environment, legislation allowing MU […]
Mocs, adidas Renew Partnership Through BSN SPORTS
The Chattanooga Mocs and adidas are extending a successful collaboration with new features that positively impact the athletics programs, University and Chattanooga community.
Bengals free-agency reunion candidate gets visit with another team
This Bengals reunion in free agency is getting less likely to happen.
Tudor Monarch – Watches and Wonders 2026
For its 100-year anniversary, Tudor debuts an entirely new model – the Tudor Monarch – with an integrated design and more decorated calibre.
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Its Recent Name Change And Share Price Rebound
Why Six Flags Entertainment Is Back On Investors’ Radar Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has been reshaped by its July 2024 name change from Cedar Fair, putting fresh attention on a business that runs amusement parks, water parks, and resorts across North America. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. Recent trading has been lively, with a 30 day share price return of 22.89% and a 90 day gain of 25.00%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.98% and 5 year total...
Prince Harry and Meghan arrive in Australia for a low-key, privately funded visit
Prince Harry and his wife Meghan have begun their first Australian visit since their official royal tour in 2018 | KYW Newsradio
Prince Harry and Meghan arrive in Australia for a low-key, privately funded visit
Prince Harry and his wife Meghan have begun their first Australian visit since their official royal tour in 2018 | 1010 WINS
Swalwell's fall muddles 'unique' Calif. governor's race even more
Katie Porter and Tom Steyer are likely to absorb Eric Swalwell’s support.
Swalwell out, new poll could alter April 22 debate lineup
The field for the upcoming Inside California Politics gubernatorial debate is likely to shift following the sudden exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race over the weekend amid alle…
'Oslo patient' likely cured of HIV after getting stem cell transplant from his brother, who is genetically resistant to the virus
A man known as the "Oslo patient" joins a short list of people in long-term remission from HIV following bone marrow transplants.
Ketchup Entertainment Names Qube Wire As Primary Distribution Partner for Expanding Theatrical Slate, Led By Wide Release COYOTE VS. ACME
Ketchup Entertainment has appointed Qube Wire as its primary digital distribution partner across its expanding theatrical slate, led by Coyote vs. Acme, the company’s largest release to date, set for a nationwide wide rollout this summer. The slate will be immediately followed by Rolling Loud, starring Owen Wilson, Matt Rife, and Travis Scott, further cementing […]
Homo erectus' tools include stunning geodes and fossils, possibly as a way to connect with the cosmos, study finds
Homo erectus may have deliberately selected rocks embedded with fossils and crystals to craft their hand axes — possibly to serve as mediators between humans and the cosmos.
SGMC Health to Host Free Community Stroke Seminar
Stroke remains one of the leading causes of death and long-term disability in the United States, and timely recognition and treatment can save lives. SGMC Health invites the community to […]
First Three Episodes of “BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War - The Calamity” Exclusively Head to U.S. Theatres Before Broadcast and Streaming from VIZ Media and Fathom Entertainment On June 25-29
Fathom Entertainment First Three Episodes of “BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War - The Calamity” Exclusively Head to U.S. Theatres Before Broadcast and Streaming from VIZ Media and Fathom Entertainment On June 25-29
Trump post appearing to depict himself as Jesus sparks backlash from religious right
Evangelical and Catholic allies call the post “blasphemous” and urge its removal in a rare public break from a base that has largely stood by Trump.
Northwestern Medicine provides guidance for improving Black maternal health
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says more than 80% of deaths related to pregnancy are preventable, and Black women are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than white women.
CAA Softball Weekly Awards
RICHMOND, Va. – Campbell’s Charlie Montgomery and Katelyn Hubley secured CAA Player and Pitcher of the Week honors, respectively, while Drexel’s Courtney Kols notched Rookie of the Week recognition on Monday.
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks
New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
Early voting begins this week. What positions are on the ballot?
Shelby County will effectively have a new set of elected officials after the election; many current representatives are term-limited or seeking other offices.
Venezuela hopes to lure back international miners, but it's a risky business
Venezuela's effort to attract foreign investors to develop its gold, iron and bauxite seams has enthusiastic backing from the Trump administration but faces big challenges, including armed groups with deep interests in the chaotic, largely illegal prospecting industry that has developed over the past 20 years, according to nine miners, residents and community activists who spoke to Reuters.
Everything to know about David Geffen Galleries as a new LACMA emerges
The divisive new building opens to members April 19 and widely May 4. Learn more about its architecture, must-see art, things to do and $724 million price tag.
As Iran war drags on, midterm forecasts for Republicans get even worse
The GOP was already bracing for a tough election, but with the ceasefire in doubt, gas prices are likely to stay high, and voters’ economic outlook is dismal.
Why does déjà vu happen, and can science explain it?
Learning with TOI News: You’re walking into a place you’ve never been to before. And yet, for a fleeting moment, it feels known. Not vaguely familiar, but specific, like a me.
Health scores: See which downtown Augusta restaurant nearly failed
A downtown Augusta restaurant barely squeaked by with a 70 health score. Find out why.
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
Chris Brazzell NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Brazzell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
Winners and losers of NBA's regular-season finales: Bracket breaks nicely for Rockets and Cavaliers
The 2025-26 NBA regular season came to a close on Sunday
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.
Extra half-mile added to some runner’s course during Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon
The email said the lead vehicle took participants approximately a half mile longer than the advertised distance at the turnaround on Neyland Drive.
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.
About His Business
Elder Kearon teaches that callings from the Lord are tailor-made for our growth and that when we respond to a call, we don’t merely fill an assignment but join the Saviour in His redeeming work.
Dodgers Have Chance to Break 142-Year-Old MLB Record
The Los Angeles Dodgers have gotten off to a great start in 2026, and their run differential definitely reflects that.
‘Chilling effect’ of Trump science cuts – even if reversed again
Congress likely to once more block plans to cut billions from agency budgets, but experts fear they will have long-term impact anyway
Ohio lawmakers introduce new bills to severely restrict sports gambling across the state
Three Ohio state representatives introduced a pair of new bills this week that aim to severely restrict the availability of sports betting in the state. This comes after Gov. Mike DeWine has repeatedly said in recent months that he regrets allowing sports betting to become legalized in Ohio.
Astronomers detect mega-laser beam signal from 8 billion light-years away
Science News: One of the most remarkable discoveries made by astronomers in recent years is the identification of an extremely strong \"mega-laser\" signal that has t.
Christian Yelich leaves Brewers' game against Nationals with hamstring tightness
Christian Yelich left the Milwaukee Brewers' game against the Washington Nationals on Sunday with tightness in his left hamstring. It wasn't immediately clear how Yelich got hurt. He was the designated hitter and went 0 for 2, hitting grounders each time.
Analysis: Rogers still has more to prove
Morgan Rogers is attracting a lot of attention and the growing expectation is he will leave Aston Villa in the summer. Villa will likely need to sell a star player, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, and Rogers is their best asset - especially with Boubacar Kamara out injured. An impressive World Cup would also strengthen Villa's hand but the England forward needs to show more of a clinical nature throughout the pitch.
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA
DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA
DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
Jon Jones may ‘feel the fire’ to return after UFC 327 but Dana White definitely does not
Jon Jones continues to flip flop on whether or not he intends to retire from the sport, which doesn’t surprise UFC CEO Dana White one bit. White spent the last couple of years glazing Jon Jones as the GOAT of MMA, but that all ended after “Bones” retired in June 2025, reneging on a reported […]
Charlie Crist's humanity laid bare by, wait for it, the Tampa Bay Times
Crist is shown as something he’s not often been accused of: entirely relatable.
Clorox Purell Deal Reshapes Health And Hygiene Investment Story
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) has completed the acquisition of GOJO Industries, the company behind the Purell brand. The deal brings Purell hand sanitizer and related hygiene products into Clorox's health and hygiene solutions portfolio. The acquisition is intended to support broader global reach and a more comprehensive offering in cleaning and disinfecting products. For you as an investor, this move connects a household cleaning name with a widely recognized hand hygiene brand under one umbrella...
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Science & Medicine: Pain researchers have their eyes on ending chronic pain
A UT Health San Antonio researcher is working to map the nerves involved in jaw pain as part of a federally funded consortium aimed at developing the first targeted, non-opioid treatment for chronic pain, research he hopes will give millions of suffering Americans their lives back and ultimately reverse or even prevent pain in the first place.
Does the moon look the same from everywhere on Earth?
The moon's orientation changes quite dramatically across time and between places, largely due to differences in perspective.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
Coffee and granola: How a uniquely Pittsburgh partnership is helping local businesses grow
Derek Davies never intended to return to Pittsburgh. He had one goal by the time he graduated from North Allegheny High School: “Get the hell out...
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off
The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)
Africa is losing health workers when it can least afford to – a pattern rooted in colonial history
Health workers consistently move from poorer countries to richer ones, a pattern that tracks closely along lines drawn by colonial history.
Chris Bell NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Bell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.
Hungarians head to polls in crucial election
Pollsters predict a record turnout as EU future is likely at stake.
Reform’s Startup Culture Raises Risks Ahead of Local Elections
Earlier this year, as Reform UK official Shaun Wilkinson was shortlisting candidates for May’s local elections, he watched in astonishment as a superior remotely replaced one pick in the shared spreadsheet with a recent Conservative defector who he’d rejected.
New clinic brings at-home health care to La Plata, San Juan counties
HERMOSA – The practice of a doctor traveling to a patient’s home to deliver care – as opposed to the patient traveling to a medical campus or visiting a doctor in an office – is largely bygone. Accord...
Your wishes, your voice: Ochsner doctors encourage families to plan ahead for National Healthcare Decisions Day
Every year on April 16, National Healthcare Decisions Day serves as a reminder that medical emergencies rarely arrive with warning. When they occur, the decisions surrounding treatment often must be
Insider: Why are politicians cursing so much lately?
“I think that it is simply because it’s accepted,” one political science professor said of the trend of increased public cursing by politicians.
Small Business Administration offering drought disaster loans to Colorado small businesses, nonprofits
On Friday, the Small Business Administration announced it will offer low-interest federal disaster loans to Colorado small businesses and private nonprofits negatively affected by drought.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
Hidden weak spots in HIV and Ebola revealed with breakthrough nanodisc technology
A new nanodisc-based platform lets scientists study viral proteins in a form that closely mimics real viruses, revealing how antibodies truly recognize them. This approach uncovered hidden interactions in viruses like HIV and Ebola that traditional methods missed. By recreating the virus’s membrane environment, researchers can better understand how immune defenses work. The technique could speed up the development of more effective vaccines.
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
To the editor: Target Chicago to draw new business
With the sheer number of economic development agencies and organizations operating in our region, why aren’t we aggressively targeting businesses in the ...
Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next
Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.
Trump wants to paint a White House office building with ‘magic paint.’ Experts advise against it
President Donald Trump privately advocated for painting an ornate federal office building next to the White House with a “magic paint with silicate,” CNN has learned. But ahead of a key vote on exterior changes to the sprawling Gilded Age structure, a panel of experts is warning the so-called magic paint could be incompatible with the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s granite exterior.
Nintendo Prime: Nintendo is spreading fake information internally to patch leaks
Nintendo is an extremely secretive company but in recent weeks they’ve sprung some leaks and it isn’t the first time that it has happened. YouTuber Nintendo Prime says he has heard from his sources…
John Nolan, ‘Batman’ actor and uncle to Christopher Nolan, dead at 87: reports
Actor John Nolan, widely known for his roles in “Batman” and “Person of Interest,” died at age 87 on Saturday, according to multiple media reports. Local British outlet Stratford-Upon-Avon Herald f…
Android has a Secret Update Menu You Likely Didn’t Know About
Keeping your Android phone up-to-date should be a straight-forward task. You have updates for apps in the Google Play store and system updates that show up at some point in most... #Apps #Google
It’s Time To Forget About The MacBook Air
Apple’s MacBook Neo has disrupted the PC laptop market while leaving the MacBook market relatively intact. Is there value in Tim Cook disrupting the MacBook Air?
Babies too young for MMR vaccine become ‘sitting ducks’ in measles outbreaks
Babies too young to be vaccinated are among the most vulnerable in a measles outbreak and depend entirely on herd immunity.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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