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Three Takeaways from Wisconsin Basketball's 2026-27 Opponent Reveal
Wisconsin catches a few breaks but also draws some tough games in 2026-27.
2026 NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams: Bears facing possible collapse, Browns might catch a break
Let's break down the strength of schedule ranking for all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2026 season
AI chatbots struggle with subtle mental health cues
AI models miss the cues clinicians catch, a new benchmark finds.
Cameras catch Paige Bueckers mocking Caitlin Clark
The Indiana Fever faced off against the Dallas Wings on Saturday in both teams’ season opener. Amazingly, the game was a clash of the WNBA’s last four number one overall picks, Aaliyah Boston (2023) and Caitlin Clark (2024) for the Fever, and Paige Bueckers (2025) and Azzi Fudd (2026) for the Wings. When the Fever…
Yawning is contagious — even in the womb
Rather than catching a yawn on sight, muscles squeezing the uterus could be the trigger for a fetus to catch a yawn from its mother.
How jellyfish bycatch could be valuable collagen source for cosmetics and biotech
Dr Ainara Ballesteros is a Juan de la Cierva postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Environment and Marine Science Research at the Catholic University of Valencia, where she leads a research group focused on jellyfish biology, aquaculture, and the sustainable use of marine resources. Her work is centered on developing innovative solutions based on marine science, particularly through the study of underused organisms as sources of high-value compounds within circular bioeconomy and zero-waste strategies. She is joined in this work by Raquel Torres, a PhD student at the same institute, who is carrying out her doctoral thesis within this line of research, focused on jellyfish valorization, collaboration with the fishing sector, and the sustainable management of marine resources. They are co-authors on a new Frontiers in Marine Science article which investigated whether jellyfish accidentally caught by small-scale fishers in Spain could be transformed into a valuable resource instead of being treated as waste. The team worked side by side with fishers to better understand their perceptions of jellyfish bycatch, identify which species are most frequently caught, and evaluate whether one of them, Rhizostoma pulmo, could serve as a sustainable source of high-quality collagen.
11 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Your mum said it first! 5 health tips now backed by science
Mums know things. Not the kind of things you find in textbooks or peer-reviewed journals, but the real-world wisdom that somehow always turns out to be right! She told you to eat your greens and get some fresh air, but you’d roll your eyes. Now? Researchers are catching up, validating every single thing she told you as a kid, proving that sometimes the best health advice doesn't come from a lab coat; it comes from someone who just knew. Your mum! So, this Mother’s Day, let’s give our mums the credit they deserve!
Guardians acquire Patrick Bailey, two-time Gold Glove-winning catcher, in trade with Giants
Bailey has struggled with the bat, but is a well-rated defensive catcher
Guardians reportedly acquiring Giants catcher Patrick Bailey in trade that sends San Francisco pick, prospect
Bailey has won a Gold Glove each of the past two seasons.
Pens Points: First off-season re-signings
Catch up on some of the latest hockey headlines in today’s Pens Points.
New Arizona State coach Randy Bennett ‘catching my stride’ after health issue arose in March
Arizona State hired Bennett on March 23, but the 63-year-old coach started feeling ill shortly after his arrival to the Phoenix area.
How to watch 2026 men's NCAA volleyball tournament on ESPN
It's time for the 2026 men's NCAA volleyball tournament! Who will take home the title? Here's how to catch the action in the ESPN App.
20 Oakland sports events to catch in May
Plus: The Roots are off to their best season yet and the Falcons are in first place in their ultimate frisbee league.
How science is taking tripping mainstream
President Trump recently signed an order to speed up the evaluation of psychedelics to treat the brain. That’s coming after decades of strict prohibition on psychedelic drug use dating back to President Nixon. So how did we go from that to a psychedelic renaissance? A look into a key institution in the world of psychedelic research may give us some clues. This episode, NPR’s brain correspondent Jon Hamilton shares insight from a recent trip. (No pun intended.) Want more psychedelic content? Catch our episode on ketamine therapy here, or learn why some scientists want to take the trip out of psychedelics here. Have other questions about psychedelics and the brain? Let us know by emailing shortwave@npr.org!
April Social Media Round-Up—Trailblazer Cancer Research Grants, World Health Day, and More
April has come to a close and we are barreling towards the summer. Before you head outside to enjoy spring, take a moment to catch up with Pfizer’s social channels, which have been on fire. Check out updates across our channels.
Data center opposition is 'catching a fire' across North Carolina politics
As North Carolina localities consider data center projects or halt development with moratoriums, their decisions are having political repercussions.
USA TODAY Sports Network 2026 All-SEC softball awards, coach and player of the year
Oklahoma catcher Kendall Wells and Alabama pitcher Jocelyn Briski highlight the USA TODAY Sports Network 2026 All-SEC softball awards.
Braves trade catcher Jonah Heim to Athletics
Just a few hours after designating backup catcher Jonah Heim for assignment, the Atlanta Braves announced a trade to the Athletics in exchange for cash considerations. With catcher Sean Murphy ready to be activated from the IL, it was Heim who found himself as the man left out from the 26-man roster. There was discussion […]
Did you catch New Orleans area native Jon Batiste’s cameo in ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’?
Groundbreaking — Jon Batiste is taking it from Jazz Fest to the big screen for the long-awaited “Devil Wears Prada” sequel.
An ace and his catcher remember Cocalico baseball\'s golden era 6 decades later
They stood 60 feet, 6 inches apart, just like the old days. The mind was willing to try to recreate the magic. The body? Not so much.
12 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
How to get the Super Rocket Radar to face Giovanni in Pokémon GO?
Team GO Rocket battles are some of the most exciting aspects of Pokémon GO, and the ultimate test in this grind is facing Giovanni. Beating the suave Boss of the villainous group lets you catch a Shadow Legendary, often a new force to be reckoned with in both/either the PvE and PvP meta For more […]
Cal Raleigh scratched late from Mariners lineup
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh was a late scratch from the lineup on Saturday. The Mariners did not immediately announce why Raleigh was out. Raleigh, who was the runner-up for AL MVP last season after hitting 60 homers and driving in 125 RBI, is hitting .186 with seven homers and 18 RBI through 33 games.
Phillies activate catcher J.T. Realmuto from injured list
The Philadelphia Phillies activated catcher J.T. Realmuto from the injured list on Saturday. “He’s back and good to go,” interim manager Don Mattingly said. Protect J.T. from the standpoint of running him out there a lot.
The Outer Worlds will soon be removed from stores — but there's a catch
The Outer Worlds will be delisted on certain platforms, but the Spacer's Choice Edition will continue to receive updates.
Despite saying otherwise, Mai Shiranui and Kula Diamond are coming back for Dead or Alive 6: Last Round, but there's a catch
It's already been almost three months since we first learned about the revival of Dead or Alive, but there's been some mixed messaging since then.Despite stating that Mai Shiranui and Kula Diamond would not be returning for ...
James Bond Is Officially Back, and This Month's New Release Looks Phenomenal
Years later, James Bond officially returns this month with a new release, 007 First Light. Catch up on all the details here.
April Social Media Round-Up—Trailblazer Cancer Research Grants, World Health Day, and More
April has come to a close and we are barreling towards the summer. Before you head outside to enjoy spring, take a moment to catch up with Pfizer’s social channels, which have been on fire. Check out updates across our channels.
Apple may take "several months" to catch up to Mac mini and Studio demand
Chip shortages and demand from AI enthusiasts are both playing a part.
Janet Mills stood up to Trump. Democratic voters shrugged.
Liberals say they want a fighter. But a popular governor who clashed with the president failed to catch fire in Maine’s Senate race.
AI Can Spot Pancreatic Cancer Years Before Diagnosis, Study Finds
Catching this deadly disease while it's treatable can save lives.
How to watch UFC Perth ‘Della Maddalena vs. Prates’
The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to “The Land Down Under” for href="https://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-Fight-Night-275-Della-Maddalena-vs-Prates-111890">UFC Perth. A brief rundown for those who intend to catch the show
The most severe Linux threat to surface in years catches the world flat-footed
CopyFail threatens multi-tenant servers, CI/CD work flows, Kubernetes containers, and more.
These are the movies you’ll be able to catch at this year’s Film on the Rocks
Whether you’re into horror, dramas, comedies or action, Film on the Rocks will certainly deliver with its lineup for the 2026 season.
George Pickens signs $27.3 million franchise tag with Cowboys
The 25-year-old, acquired last year in a trade with Pittsburgh, had career highs in catches (93), yards receiving (1,429) and touchdowns (nine) for one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.
Scientists catch antimatter “atom” acting like a wave for the first time
Quantum physics once shocked scientists by revealing that particles can behave like waves—and now, that strange behavior has been pushed even further. For the first time, researchers have observed wave-like interference in positronium, an exotic “atom” made of an electron and its antimatter partner, a positron. This breakthrough not only strengthens the weird reality of quantum mechanics but also opens the door to new experiments involving antimatter, including the possibility of testing how gravity affects it—something never directly measured before.
What concerts are happening in South Bend area from April 27 to May 3?
Michiana is buzzing with live music. Find out where to catch Melissa Etheridge, The Isaacs and more this week.
Essential Arsenal news: Weekend roundup
Don’t have time to read everything about Arsenal? Let us catch you up…Arsenal’s weekend brought a return to the top, a major European win for the women and more concern lower down the academy pa...
Cars at Modesto auto dismantling business catch fire, fire department says
The Modesto Fire Department responded to the blaze just after 9 p.m. Saturday night.
Sasaki, Rushing Take Positives From Start in Win Over Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki and catcher Dalton Rushing both saw improvement from the pitcher in his start Saturday.
The First Look at 'Alien: Isolation 2' Calls You Back for More
You'll probably be scared to death in 'Alien: Isolation 2,' but at least there'll be payphones for you to stop and catch your breath.
Sydney Sweeney rocks eye-catching corset while belting tunes with celebrity friends at Stagecoach
Sydney Sweeney rocked a baby blue corset at her SYRN pop-up saloon during Stagecoach, performing karaoke with Chase Rice and Lance Bass in Indio.
Stagecoach 2026: How to watch livestream with Post Malone, Hootie & the Blowfish
You can also catch Ludacris, Warren Zeiders and Third Eye Blind on Amazon Music and Prime Video's Sunday Stagecoach livestream, which starts at 3 p.m. Pacific.
NOLA.com's Live from Jazz Fest: Eating oysters, Rod Stewart vs. David Byrne, weather, more
Catch a feature on Michalopoulos, who has "the distinction of painting more Jazz Fest posters than any other artist." Also an interview with an all-female Mardi Gras Indians group. Today's live show is presented by Explore Louisiana and New Orleans and Company.
Final Fantasy 14 is coming to Nintendo Switch 2 in August – but there's a catch
Final Fantasy 14 is coming to Nintendo Switch 2 in August.
‘Saros’ Shows Off the PS5’s DualSense Tricks
The new game from the creators of “Returnal” goes all-in on the PlayStation’s haptics and 3D audio. Maybe it will catch on with other game developers.
Stagecoach 2026: How to watch Lainey Wilson, Pitbull, Teddy Swims on Saturday
You can catch Bush, Billy Bob Thornton & the Boxmasters, Riley Green, Little Big Town and more live from Stagecoach on Amazon Music's Saturday livestream from the festival.
Weekend reads: What paper mills charge for author slots; UK Biobank data breached; what researchers think of the future of science
If your week flew by — we know ours did — catch up here with what you might have missed. The week at Retraction Watch featured: 10 years ago, Elisabeth Bik published a preprint heard around the wor…
NOLA.com's Live from Jazz Fest: See Day 3 weather forecast, shows to catch, more
Today's live show is presented by Explore Louisiana and New Orleans and Company.
Final Fantasy XIV Is Coming to Nintendo Switch 2 in August With a Separate Subscription
Square Enix has announced plans to bring Final Fantasy XIV to Nintendo Switch 2 this August – but there is a catch.
Final Fantasy XIV Is Coming To Nintendo Switch 2, But There's A Terrible And Expensive Catch
Not the way I envisioned my Warrior of Light on the go...
NOLA.com's Live from Jazz Fest: See Day 2 weather forecast, shows to catch, more
Keith Spera is previewing Jon Batiste and Lorde's shows. Ian McNulty is hunting down the best Friday Fest Food Finds. Join us! Today's live show is presented by Explore Louisiana and New Orleans and Company.
“A Picayune Detail:” Nazi Science Heads West
As Allied forces crossed the English Channel during the D-Day invasion of June 1944, some 10,000 intelligence officers known as T-Forces were right behind the advance battalions. Their mission: seize munitions experts, technicians, German scientists and their research materials, along with French scientists who had collaborated with the Nazis. Soon, a substantial number of such scientists had been picked up and placed in an internment camp known as the Dustbin. In the original planning for the mission, a prime factor was the view that German military equipment – tanks, jets, rocketry and so forth – was technically superior and that captured scientists, technicians and engineers could be swiftly debriefed in an effort by the Allies to catch up.
Boy ditched school to catch a Reds game. How The Enquirer blew his cover
In 1959, a boy ditched school to catch a Reds game. Decades later, the now-80-year-old recounts how The Enquirer ratted him out to his father.
Looking back, looking forward on a spring semester of Texas sports
Baseball: Looking back: Loaded with a talented transfer portal class headlined by junior outfielder Aiden Robbins and junior catcher Carson Tinney, Texas baseball has jumped out to an impressive 30–8 record in head coach Jim Schlossnagle’s second year on the Forty Acres. Looking forward: The starting pitching trio of sophomore Dylan Volantis, senior Ruger Riojas...
Largest catch-up initiative delivers over 100 million childhood vaccinations
The Big Catch-Up (BCU), a historic multi-year, multi-country effort to address vaccination declines driven largely by the COVID-19 pandemic, has reached an estimated 18.3 million children aged 1 to 5 across 36 countries with more than 100 million doses of life-saving vaccines, helping to narrow critical immunity gaps, announced Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), WHO, and UNICEF at the start of World Immunization Week.
Dillon Dingler’s Strong Start Puts Tigers in Good Hands
Dillon Dingler has turned into more than a glove-first catcher, giving the Tigers real offense and elite defense behind the plate.
Boy ditched school to catch a Reds game. How The Enquirer blew his cover
In 1959, a boy ditched school to catch a Reds game. Decades later, the now-80-year-old recounts how The Enquirer ratted him out to his father.
Headkrack talks about some of the top entertainment headlines
You can catch Headkrack on SideDish week nights on Fox Soul
Catching a fungal enzyme open for business
Serious fungal infections are on the rise, and many hospital-acquired cases are becoming harder to treat as fungi become resistant to available medications.
Mathews: Mississippi must keep slowing CWD spread until science catches up
I first got involved with the chronic wasting disease issue not long after I started SuperTalk Outdoors. At the time, deer breeders were pushing hard to open
Mariners P Logan Gilbert accidentally catches line drive in his jersey but doesn't get the out
The MLB rulebook addresses this exact situation.
Top Seattle art shows to see in May 2026
From a speakeasy-style gallery to an interactive art installation and a blow-out collage sale, these events from around the Seattle art scene are eye-catching.
Elon Musk explores Mistral partnership to take on AI rivals
Musk is eyeing a collaboration with French startup Mistral to help xAI catch Anthropic and OpenAI.
Earth Day is a reminder. The planet doesn't wait for politics to...
Earth Day is a reminder. The planet doesn't wait for politics to catch up. In New Mexico, we're not waiting either. Last week, SunZia Wind came online right here in New Mexico — the largest...
Armageddon! Fiasco! Disarray! Is California politics really a total disaster?
Your morning catch-up: A look at California's political dysfunction, plus fraud in the state's hospice industry and more big stories
Rookie VJ Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey power 76ers past cold-shooting Celtics to tie series at 1-1
Tuesday was Philadelphia's turn to catch fire from 3 as Boston struggled at home.
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
Dillon Dingler by the numbers: 5 stats that explain one of MLB’s best catchers
Over the last year, the Tigers catcher has not just been good. He has been among the very best in the sport.
Nike's comeback attempt: better shoes, more retail sales, sports focus
The sportswear giant got lapped by competitors like New Balance, On, and Hoka. Now Nike is racing to catch up.
Health & Human Services warning NC about Legionnaires' disease after increase in cases
Legionnaires' disease is a severe form of pneumonia caused by the bacterium known as Legionella. According to Mayo Clinic, most people who catch Legionnaires' disease breathe in the bacteria from water or soil.
Where to watch OKC Thunder NBA Playoffs? See these hot spots
If you're looking to watch the Thunder with other fans this NBA Playoffs, here are the best places to catch a game.
Coachella wraps up today with Karol G.
This is also your last chance to catch any performances you might have missed. Last week I missed out on Clipse, Young Thug, The Rapture, and Tomora, so they’re my priority. But I also am looking forward to Röyksopp, who didn’t make the stream last weekend. Head over to the official Coachella YouTube channel. [Image: https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/Coachella-2026-Livestream-Set-Times-Weekend-2-V3-Sunday-April-19.jpg?quality=90&strip=all]
12 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Housing waitlist, new entertainment venue, more: Cape Cod Times top stories
Catch up on the four most-read stories on the Cape Cod Times website from this past week.
People in Business: Origin names; Roeslein celebrates; Advantage promotes; SLU launches
Catch up on local business appointments, awards and promotions.
Mic catches Steve Kerr telling Stephen Curry and Draymond Green 'I don't know what's going to happen next' as Warriors' season ends
Mic catches Steve Kerr telling Stephen Curry and Draymond Green 'I don't know what's going to happen next' as Warriors head into uncertain future
Damaged boxwood plants? Try these alternatives
Box Tree Moths are affecting gardens throughout the state and country Last year these insects were spreading out of these communities more aggressively. When they invade the truly catch homeowners off guard.
Outdoors: Catch-and-release turkey hunting? Yes, it’s a thing
As I look back on the years that have ticked by, I realize I’ve lived through some amazing times with regards to new species moving into the valley I call
Dollars & Sense: Young adults turn to sports gambling to catch up financially
ARC PDX
Pre-Snap Reads 4/17: Tory Horton’s health will influence Seahawks’ success
The pass catchers in general are prime for a group breakout in 2026.
How to watch 2026 NCAA gymnastics championships
It's time for the 2026 NCAA gymnastics championships! Here's how to catch the action on ESPN's family of networks.
21ALIVE SPORTS DIGITAL EXCLUSIVE: Weekly sports wrap up
21Alive Sports Director Andy Newman and sports reporter Nia Hinson catch up on this week’s sports news.
City and Olympic boss joust over who gets big Games contracts
Your morning catch-up: L.A. officials want more business from 2028 Olympic committee, another woman accused Swalwell of assault and more big stories
Catching up with Stars GM Jim Nill: Unfinished business, injury updates, playoff format and more
Nill, whose team has gone to three straight conference finals, signed a two-year extension recently: "We haven’t finished what we’re doing."
How a 17-Year-Old’s Science Fair Project Became a Life-Saving Reality
Cresilon says its plant-based gel can stop critical bleeding in seconds. First-responders are starting to catch on.
UW Football Spring Preview: Running Backs
Who’s Gone Jonah Coleman has been the keystone of the UW running back room for the last two seasons. While nagging injuries prevented him from consistently hitting fifth gear, he still rushed for 1811 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and 25 TDs over his two years in Seattle. He also proved himself an adept pass-catcher, […]
The real science of Pokémon
The Pokémon franchise, including its recent game Pokémon Pokopia, is inspired by real animals and their ecology. It’s no surprise that so many scientists love to try and “catch ’em all”
Masters 2026: Only one question remains for Rory McIlroy — how high will he climb among golf's all-time greats?
McIlroy may never have the numbers to catch Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods, but he certainly has a pathway to No. 3 all-time.
Jesuit-Rummel winner clinches district title as fast-working pitcher overcomes early struggles
After each pitch, Maes Martin quickly took the return throw from the catcher and stepped back onto the rubber.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
Business Bulletin: Hearthstone wins; Jackie Joyner-Kersee benefits; Capes Sokol celebrates
Catch up on local business awards, certifications, and expansions.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Climate change is outpacing evolution. Scientists are using DNA to catch up
Coral reefs are among the first ecosystems where these tools are being put to use.