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This dinosaur fossil captures the final moments of a T. rex attack
A fossilized Edmontosaurus skull with a Tyrannosaurus tooth still embedded in its face has given scientists rare evidence of a dramatic predator-prey encounter. The discovery suggests the giant carnivore delivered an incredibly powerful face-to-face bite, offering new clues about how Tyrannosaurus hunted.
Vistria sells stake in specialty pharmacy company to Warburg Pincus
Revenue at the Pittsburgh, Penn.-based Pantherx Rare had grown to nearly $10 billion from $2 billion since Vistria's investment.
Lindsey Graham’s Death Creates Rare Political Scenario That’s Gripping DC
The thin majority that Republicans have in Congress is complicating things.
Mike McCarthy gives Aaron Rodgers a rare Steelers edge
Mike McCarthy’s reunion with Aaron Rodgers gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a rare shortcut during an important offensive transition.
Want fewer Platners in politics? Stop electing outsiders.
It's rare to hear 'both sides' in this political climate, but when we asked USA TODAY readers about problematic politicians, we heard it plenty.
Lindsey Graham remembered for a vision of American foreign policy that’s fading in Washington
Graham was a rare bridge between President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy and the traditional Washington consensus prioritizing alliances with Europe and Israel, one falling out of favor with many in both political parties.
Why GameCube games are so expensive (and why they're rarely sold at retro stores)
GameCube game sales didn't come close to those of the Nintendo 64 or Wii, so scarcity plays a major role in the titles' high prices and lack of availability.
The Rare Pyrex Bowl Produced For Only A Year That Collectors Dream Of Finding At Thrift Stores
Pyrex’s Black Tulip casserole dish is a rare find for thrifters because its pattern of black flowers and pinwheels was only produced from 1956 to 1957.
At Family Science Night, Wonder Comes Before Answers.
BAR HARBOR—Family Science Night isn’t really about science. It’s about wonder. It’s about watching a five-year-old realize that the tiny creature under a microscope is a real living thing. It’s about a teenager discovering that the scientist explaining genetics or regeneration isn’t much older than they are. It’s about parents seeing curiosity spread across a child’s face the way excitement spreads across a crowd at a Fourth of July parade. For one evening, families realize that the laboratory isn’t some secretive place where knowledge is hidden behind white coats and closed doors. They learn that the lab is a place their neighbors work, their friends’ parents work, and it becomes a place where questions matter more than answers. It’s a place where wonder is the origin for knowledge. At the lab, children learn that it’s okay not to know. Adults remember that they once asked “Why?” about everything. Scientists are reminded why they fell in love with discovery in the first place. There are experiments, games, obstacle courses, and demonstrations, of course. But those are really just invitations—to touch, to explore, to laugh, to make mistakes, and to ask one more question. In a world that often rewards certainty, Family Science Night celebrates curiosity. And perhaps that’s its greatest gift. Long after the microscopes are packed away and the experiments are over, what families take home isn’t just a few new facts about biology. They take home the feeling that discovery belongs to everyone—that science isn’t something happening somewhere else by someone else. It’s simply what happens when people are given permission to wonder. A Family Science Night at the Mount Desert Island Biological Laboratory is one of those rare community events where children and adults can experience science as something they do, not just something they read about. Hands on discovery allows hands-on learning and joy. Real scientists, some local, some scientist-interns (but still scientists) just in college make science real, approachable, and exciting. And there, complex ideas like forever chemical-filtration, DNA and so much more become not complex. Instead, they become fun. Summer fellows are challenged to explain cutting-edge biomedical research in ways a first-grader—and their grandparent—can understand. Past activities have explored gene expression, kidney function, axolotl regeneration, worms, microplastics, and phytoplankton through games and creative demonstrations. Though it’s called family night, you can also see adults going from station to station, exploring, learning together across ages. Family Science Night reflects the laboratory’s broader mission of breaking down barriers between researchers and the public, helping people understand how scientific discoveries relate to everyday life and the health of Maine’s environment. Family Science Night transforms a world-class research laboratory into a giant interactive classroom, where curiosity is encouraged, questions are celebrated, and families discover that science isn’t just something that happens in a lab—it’s an adventure anyone can join. About MDI Biological Laboratory For more than 125 years, MDI Bio Lab has been a center for training and research in comparative biology. In the last two decades its biomedical research has focused on aging, regeneration, and environmental toxins. The Laboratory houses 11 research groups staffed by an international team of world-class scientists and graduate students. It also leads a statewide network of colleges, universities and research institutions that collaborate to provide training, research experiences and financial support to help young Mainers play a bigger role in today’s biomedical revolution. Located on Maine’s rugged coast, the Laboratory’s 100+ acre campus houses research facilities, cottages and dorms that house visiting scientists and students. It is also home to MDI Bioscience, a subsidiary working to design innovative techniques to speed the drug discovery process. LINKS TO LEARN MORE NIH INBRE MDI BIOLOGICAL LABORATORY Photos: Carrie Jones and Shaun Farrar/Bar Harbor Story HELP SUPPORT THE BAR HARBOR STORY When we started The Bar Harbor Story, we didn’t know if anyone would read it. But you showed up. You shared. You sent tips. Now—over 400,000 views every month later—it’s clear: people here care about their community and each other. We’ve kept everything free because news should never be out of reach, but every one of our stories takes time to write, and your support keeps The Bar Harbor Story going. If you value our work, please consider a paid subscription, a founding membership, or a sponsorship. It truly helps us cover one more meeting, tell one more story, shine one more light. Even $5 a month makes a difference. Click here to become a one-time supporter now. Thank you so much for being here. Founding member information can be found here. Have questions about sponsorships? Just send Shaun an email at sfarrar86@gmail.com, he’d love to hear from you. Subscribe Share Bar Harbor Story Share Leave a comment
Scientists’ Side Hustle? Using AI and Quantum Computing to Generate New Peptides
Researchers cobbled together funding and time to show how quantum computing could aid in the development of drugs to help underserved populations and combat rare diseases.
Nigel Farage Wanted a Political Showdown. Now He’s Fighting a Trash Can.
Novelty candidates have long been a feature of British politics, but it’s rare for one to be the main competition.
Dodgers drop second straight clunker to Diamondbacks
The All-Star break all of a sudden looks more and more like something the Dodgers need, as they suffered a second blowout loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in as many nights, 9-2 on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. Simply losing consecutive games has been rare for the Dodgers, as this marked just their second two-game […]
Scientists Discover Rare Long-Necked Dinosaur Fossils From The Jurassic Period In Thailand
The plant-eating dinosaur, named Uragasaurus kalasinensis, is believed to have lived around 150 million years ago.
Azerbaijan health officials deny mumps epidemic in Baku
The Ministry of Health of the Republic of Azerbaijan reports posts have been circulating on social networks about the widespread spread of epidemic mumps in Baku do not reflect the current epidemiological situation. Health officials say the epidemiological situation of mumps in the country is stable. The registered cases of infection consist of individual sporadic cases, no epidemics or mass spread have been recorded. The current situation is constantly under epidemiological surveillance by relevant medical institutions, and the necessary preventive and counter-epidemic measures are consistently implemented. Epidemic mumps is observed more often among unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated individuals. The disease is transmitted mainly by airborne droplets - during coughing, sneezing and close contact. The incubation period usually lasts 11–23 days. The main symptoms of the disease are fever, swelling and pain in the parotid salivary glands, discomfort when chewing and swallowing, general weakness, headache and loss of appetite. In most cases, mumps is mild and results in complete recovery. However, in rare cases, certain complications may develop in unvaccinated adolescents and adults. Therefore, timely vaccination is of particular importance in preventing the disease. Subscribe to Outbreak News TV on YouTube In accordance with the National Vaccination Schedule in Azerbaijan, the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is administered to children at 12 months of age, with a booster dose at 6 years of age. The MMR vaccine is the most reliable and effective means of protection against mumps. The Ministry of Health recommends that parents check their children’s vaccination status. If for any reason the vaccination has been delayed or missed, it is recommended to contact the medical facility in your area of residence and consult a doctor. To protect yourself from the disease, it is recommended to follow preventive measures such as avoiding close contact with sick people, following personal hygiene rules, washing hands regularly, and frequently ventilating closed spaces. If you experience symptoms of the disease, avoid self-medication, seek medical attention, and do not return to work until you are fully recovered. Citizens are asked to refer only to official sources and not to believe or share unverified information circulating on social networks. Outbreak News Today is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
A single rare meteorite has revealed the chemical fingerprint of a Moon-sized world that once orbited the young Sun before being destroyed in a catastrophic collision — a lost planet science never knew existed until it landed as a rock
A one-pound rock found in the Sahara in 2019 has become evidence for something much larger than itself: a vanished planetary body from the first years of the
Skip Pyrex: The Antique Dishware You Can Find At Thrift Stores That's A 'True Collector's Jewel'
The Le Creuset Dutch Oven Terrine is unique. Shaped like a duck and no longer in production, this piece is a rare and interesting twist on plain cookware.
Remember, as midterm season heats up, politics and business just don’t mix
Leave your politics at the door — it rarely works out well.
Remember, as midterm season heats up, politics and business just don’t mix
Leave your politics at the door — it rarely works out well.
How World Cup stars pushing 40 are defying their biological clocks
Players in their mid-30s and older used to be rare. In 2026, they made up about 6% of the 48 national team squads.
Sens. Fetterman (D) and McCormick (R) form rare bipartisan fundraising committee
The unusual cross-party fundraising committee comes amid speculation that Republicans are courting John Fetterman, who has said he has no plans to switch parties.
Quantum computing wielded to create extremely rare material critical to nuclear fusion
Nuclear fusion inches closer after scientists combine supercomputing, AI and quantum computing to blueprint a way to create more tritium.
The quest to save Grace — and clear the way for rare disease patients everywhere
How a father’s quest may shape the future of rare disease gene therapy.
Katie Couric shares health scare
Journalist Katie Couric describes the terrifying moments when she lost her memory just a few weeks ago. She was diagnosed with transient global amnesia - a sudden episode of memory loss that’s rare. NBC News’ Kate Snow has the story.
SpaceX stock outlook: Interview with rare analyst without 'buy' rating
Most of the reservations around SpaceX relate to the company's lofty valuation, as well as the prospect of future regulation.
Chernobyl’s Wildlife Cameras Reveal How War Affects Wild Animals
A rare camera-trap study logged the effects of armed conflict on wild animals in real time.
A rare blue whale skeleton is coming to OSU's marine science center
A rare blue whale skeleton found near Gold Beach in 2015 will soon go on display at Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center after a decade-long preservation effort.
Incredible new material makes heat programmable
A newly developed material can control and "program" heat, allowing it to direct thermal radiation, switch modes, and remember its settings without continuous power. The innovation could lead to smarter infrared sensors, better energy technologies, and memory devices that use light and heat instead of electrical charges.
Star Trek Murder Mystery Drove The Science Advisor Crazy
A holodeck mystery forced a rare scientific rewrite, inspiring clever new sci-fi tech and solving an impossible storytelling problem.
First-Ever Close-Up Revealed of Earth's Rare 'Minimoon'
The smallest object ever visited by human spacecraft?
Royals pull off rare MLB feat, score in every inning of blowout win over Phillies
Comet 3I/ATLAS is older than the sun
At over 9 billion years old, the rare interstellar visitor is more than twice the sun's age.
NASA Webb Uncovers Unusual Galaxy Shaped by Cosmic Collision
Webb uncovers unusual galaxy shaped by cosmic collision: Webb's unprecedented sensitivity across near- and mid-infrared wavelengths cuts through the thick lanes of dust that obscure Centaurus A’s center in visible light, showing a densely packed tapestry of individual stars and an active, everchanging galaxy. These images mark four years of better-than-anticipated performance and successful science operations for the most powerful space telescope in history. Centaurus A is 11 million light-years away from Earth, relatively close in cosmic terms. Yet, unlike most nearby galaxies, it is very active, making it a powerful laboratory for understanding how galaxies and black holes grow and evolve together.
Trump’s red card call stirs political storm around World Cup
For 24 days, the World Cup seemed to achieve a rare feat in America in 2026: It had almost nothing to do with Donald Trump.
China rare earth industry has critical weakness, study finds
New study finds China lagging behind Japan and the US in key patents for advanced rare earth technologies.
Alexander Lake Lodge in Cedaredge offers rare business opportunity
This weekend’s unique commercial property is a mountain retreat located on top of the Grand Mesa near Cedaredge, CO.
NASA's Hubble captures a star-spangled sea of 500,000 stars
Celebrating the United States' 250th anniversary, NASA released a stunning Hubble portrait of Messier 3, an ancient globular cluster with more than 500,000 stars. The remarkable cluster is helping scientists unravel the Milky Way's past thanks to its rare stars and possible origins in a long ago cosmic merger.
This toad exists only in Canada—and scientists have finally discovered why
Scientists have identified something that may be even more uniquely Canadian than the beaver or moose: a genetically distinct western toad population found only in Canada. The discovery, made by researchers from the University of Ottawa, points to a rare and previously unrecognized group of toads living in the Canadian Rockies and raises fresh questions about conservation, biodiversity, and how much wildlife still remains to be fully understood.
Health officials offer tick safety tips as summer outdoor season ramps up
Mesa County Public Health is reminding residents that while tick-borne illnesses are rare in the area, taking precautions during outdoor activities can help reduce risk this summer.
'Rough draft' of the Declaration on display for America's 250th birthday
Those visiting the Library of Congress over the next several months will be able to get a rare look at a draft of our founding document up close
UH to cease science operations at Maunakea’s UKIRT telescope this fall
The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope is one of thirteen working telescopes on the mountain’s summit and the third to be decommissioned.
UH to cease science operations at Maunakea’s UKIRT telescope this fall
The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope is one of thirteen working telescopes on the mountain’s summit and the third to be decommissioned.
Detroit young adults tour with Usher, gain backstage experience in live entertainment
Four Detroit young adults are getting a rare, behind-the-scenes education in the entertainment industry, touring the country with Usher as part of a first-of-its-kind live-touring internship program.
NASA’s Webb Reveals Stars Sparking to Life in Cosmic Celebration
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has captured the infrared light of numerous features that previously were impossible to see beyond the thick dust of the FS
Mia Sara calls this former costar 'a dreamboat of a man'
Mia Sara called her 'Life of Chuck' costar Mark Hamill 'a dreamboat of a man' in a rare podcast interview.
If we lose our coverage, we lose our lives
By Thomas Buckley My oncologist asked: “Polycythemia Vera. Do you know what that means?” Earlier, I lived in blissful ignorance, unaware I potentially carried a myeloproliferative neoplasm encoded within my DNA. “Yes,” I answered, “A rare form of blood cancer, incurable, not necessarily fatal, provided it’s treated.” At 31, I thought I had life figured […]
Astros 6, Twins 4: Alvarez’s Grand Slam sinks Twins
It was a rare bad start from Joe Ryan, as the Twins dropped game two of the series.
Taylor Sheridan makes rare comment on Kevin Costner's departure from 'Yellowstone'
Taylor Sheridan is speaking out about Kevin Costner's departure from 'Yellowstone' in season 5, revealing that the actor had been 'ready to go.'
Apple Is Moving The iPhone 18 Pro’s IR Flooder To The Side, As A CT Scan Exposes A Huge Vapor Chamber Stretching To The Top, And A Smaller Dynamic Island
Apple has moved iPhone 18 Pro's infrared flooder to the side, while housing the front camera and the Face ID scanner within a smaller cutout.
Olsen twins make rare appearance at brother Trent's wedding
It's a summer of celebration for the Olsen twins. Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen, who turned 40 earlier this month, were spotted at their brother Trent Olsen's wedding in a rare
Plutonium compound unlocks rare topological quantum behavior with potential nuclear science applications
Plutonium is one of the most complex elements in the periodic table. First synthesized and isolated in 1940 by scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, plutonium has been studied closely ...
How Mississippi reacted to the Supreme Court mail-in ballot ruling
In a rare move out of lockstep with President Trump, the U.S. Supreme Court backed Mississippi's law counting mail-in ballots after Election Day.
Jodie Turner-Smith offers rare comments about co-parenting with ex Joshua Jackson
Jodie Turner-Smith says she and ex-husband Joshua Jackson are 'learning' and 'not alway getting it totally right' when it comes to co-parenting their daughter together.
Xbox Announces 'Record' Pre-Orders For GTA 6 In Response To New Report
A rare statement has been issued
Congress passes rare bipartisan bill on housing, how manufactured housing could be crucial to affordability
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Bill Cassidy accuses Trump of treating Congress as ‘merely an appendage’
Out-going Louisiana senator’s rebuke over Iran war is rare instance of a Republican politician standing up to Trump
Amazon seller reveals rare glimpse of shadow bribery market
An international black market has been a persistent scourge of Amazon's online store.
Xbox One gets a rare busy month with 12 noteworthy games coming July 2026
Microsoft's Xbox One consoles will enjoy a surprisingly busy month for new releases in July 2026, with 12 noteworthy games confirmed.
Bullseye! Enormous 'bow and arrow' galaxy is unlike anything radio astronomers have ever seen — Space photo of the week
Astronomers and citizen scientists have discovered RAD-BAARG, a radio galaxy with a striking bow-and-arrow shape, offering a rare direct view of a galaxy falling into the environment of a galaxy cluster.
Madonna makes rare reveal of 1 major pop diva she was 'jealous' of
"I was like, 'I'll never be as beautiful as Kylie!'" she said.
Madonna makes rare reveal of 1 major pop diva she was 'jealous' of
"I was like, 'I'll never be as beautiful as Kylie!'" she said.
Madonna makes rare reveal of 1 major pop diva she was 'jealous' of
Madonna recently revealed why she was 'jealous' of Kylie Minogue, even though she wore a T-shirt bearing the 'Can't Get You Out of My Head' singer's name to the MTV Music Awards in 2000.
This Week's 10 Must-Read Stories on Women in Politics: Title IX Anniversary, AI's Anti-Women Bias and Ranked-Choice Voting Victories
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a weekly compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and goodwill mixed in for refreshment! Published every Friday. —This week marked the 54th anniversary of Title IX. —As the Taliban approaches the five-year mark of its return to power this August, a rare protest in western Afghanistan last week laid bare both the brutality of its rule and the resilience of those living under it. —A woman will replace Eric Swalwell in California … but for not two more months. —A study of 133 AI systems found that 44 percent demonstrated gender bias, and more than a quarter showed both gender and racial bias. ... and more.
Scientists Baffled by Discovery of Rare “Pink Floyd” Spider Hidden in Home Walls - Futura-Sciences
The Birth of a “Pink Floyd” Spider Tiny, discreet, and quietly settled on urban walls, a new species of spider was recently discovered in Colombia—and christened as a tribute to the iconic rock band Pink Floyd. As part of a study published in the journal Zoosystematics and Evolution, South American...
Why Your Nighttime Dreams Are So Weird—Science Finally Has the Answer - Futura-Sciences
The Secret Life of Dreams: Not Just Random Nonsense Remember the dream you had last night? Maybe you’re left with just a trace—a sweet feeling, maybe, or a strange discomfort. But there’s rarely a story you could actually retell. Because, in the end, a dream is a deeply personal experience....
This Democratic congresswoman almost helped elect a Republican speaker
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) explains why she contemplated supporting Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) in 2023 with an extremely rare crossover vote.
Serious statin side effects on muscles are extremely rare, new research confirms
Scientists created a new tool to help doctors predict a patient’s risk of severe muscle problems from taking a statin.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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